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Madison Bumgarner

Marlins Notes: Arraez, Bumgarner, Wendle

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Luis Arraez is off to a strong start to his Marlins tenure. Acquired from the Twins in the deal that sent Pablo López to the Twin Cities, the lefty-hitting infielder carries an incredible .421/.482/.553 line with nine walks and only four strikeouts over 85 plate appearances. While Arraez surely won’t hit over .400 for an entire season, he looks more than capable of backing up last year’s American League batting title in his new environment.

The Miami front office has to be pleased with the production of their new infielder, though Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report the sides haven’t had any discussions about a potential contract extension. That’s hardly surprising for a player who’s so new to a team. However, it is in contrast to López, who inked a $73.5MM deal with Minnesota last week.

López was a year closer to free agency than Arraez is now. Both players entered 2023 in their second seasons of arbitration eligibility but Arraez qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player. Miami’s second baseman won a hearing in February to secure a $6.1MM salary. He’s in line for two more raises through that process before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign, when he’ll be headed into his age-29 season.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson and Mish also report that Miami is not interested in free agent starter Madison Bumgarner. The four-time All-Star was officially released by the Diamondbacks this afternoon, the obvious outcome after he was designated for assignment last week. Arizona will remain on the hook for virtually all of the $37MM owed to Bumgarner over the next two seasons. Any club that carries him on its MLB roster would only need to pay him the prorated portion of the $720K league minimum, which would be subtracted from Arizona’s obligations.

The Marlins are currently without Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers due to injury, leaving them with an uncertain #5 option behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera. Bumgarner had been tagged for 20 runs with more walks than strikeouts through 16 2/3 innings with the D-Backs before being released, however, so it’s understandable the Miami front office believes they’re better served with their in-house depth options.

Along with the absences of Cueto and Rogers, Miami has been without its presumptive starting shortstop for the bulk of the season. Joey Wendle has been on the injured list since April 4 due to a right intercostal strain. The club could soon welcome him back. Jordan McPherson of the Herald tweets that the veteran infielder will begin a rehab stint with Triple-A Jacksonville tomorrow. Wendle was limited to nine plate appearances before the injury. Jon Berti has picked up the bulk of the shortstop work in his absence and hit .233/.278/.356 across 75 trips to the dish.

Diamondbacks Release Madison Bumgarner

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The Diamondbacks announced that left-hander Madison Bumgarner has been released. The southpaw had been designated for assignment last week.

The move doesn’t come as a shock, given the combination of his contract and his poor results of late. He and the D’Backs agreed to a five-year, $85MM deal going into 2020 after the lefty had spent a decade as an incredibly effective pitcher for the Giants. Unfortunately, he seemed like a completely different pitcher once he switched jerseys, starting with a 6.48 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. His strikeout rate dropped to 15.8% after being in the mid-20s for much of his earlier career.

Given the strange nature of that year, it didn’t necessarily portend doom for the remainder of the contract. He bounced back somewhat in 2021, getting his strikeouts back up to a 20.2% level and his ERA down to a more respectable 4.67, but he didn’t get back to the dominant levels of his time with the Giants. His strikeouts dipped again to 16% last year as his ERA climbed north a bit to 4.88. Here in 2023, things went even further south, as he was torched for a 10.26 in his first four starts, punching out just 11.1% of opponents while walking 16.7%. As the club shifted to win-now mode and dedicated its rotation spots to young pitchers on the rise, Bumgarner wore out his welcome in Arizona.

His contract still runs through 2024, with a $23MM salary this year, leaving about $19MM and change left to be paid out before he’ll make $14MM next year. Given that hefty financial commitment and his recent struggles on the mound, it’s unsurprising that none of the 29 other clubs were willing to put in a waiver claim and take on that contract, leading to today’s release.

Bumgarner will now officially return to the open market and will be free to sign with any club, with the Diamondbacks remaining on the hook for that money. Any club that’s willing to give Bumgarner a shot will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the D’Backs pay. The level of interest he will garner remains to be seen. The minimal financial commitment will certainly be appealing but that will have to be weighed against his lack of effectiveness this year and in the previous three as well.

Diamondbacks Designate Madison Bumgarner For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks have designated left-hander Madison Bumgarner for assignment, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have formally announced the move. Left-hander Anthony Misiewicz has been recalled from Triple-A Reno to take Bumgarner’s spot on the 40-man roster.

The Bumgarner DFA comes on the heels of three-plus sub-par seasons for Bumgarner in Arizona, where he signed a five-year, $85MM contract prior to the 2020 season. The 33-year-old left-hander has been generally durable but ineffective for the Snakes, pitching to a lowly 5.23 ERA in 363 1/3 innings and 69 starts under that contract.

Things have taken a particularly pronounced downswing in 2023, however, as Bumgarner has been torched for 20 runs (19 earned) on 25 hits and 15 walks with just 10 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. The D-backs have lost three of Bumgarner’s four starts this season, including a seven-run three-inning clunker against the Cardinals yesterday, wherein Bumgarner got into a verbal altercation with St. Louis catcher Willson Contreras after apparently taking objection to Contreras’ reaction to a swing and reaction on a pitch he fouled straight back. The team’s lone victory of the season with Bumgarner on the mound came when he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings, three runs and six walks.

Bumgarner’s current 89.6 mph fastball average is down more than three miles per hour from its 92.9 peak. His 11.1% strikeout rate and 16.7% walk rate are both career-worsts by wide margins, and he’s seen his ability to induce swinging strikes (just  6.3%) and chases off the plate (21.1%) evaporate in this season’s four starts.

In seasons past, the Diamondbacks could perhaps sell themselves on occasional glimmers of hope and at least accept that if nothing else, Bumgarner was a durable innings eater who could somewhat narrowly keep his ERA south of 5.00. The Diamondbacks didn’t enter 2021 or 2022 as hopeful contenders anyhow, after all, and Bumgarner gave them a bridge to some of their starting pitching prospects while those promising young arms continued to develop in the upper minors.

That’s no longer the case in 2023, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined earlier this week in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, arguing within that the D-backs needed to move on as soon as possible. The D-backs entered the ’23 campaign with an emerging, exciting young core headlined by outfielder Corbin Carroll, and they have one of MLB’s top farm systems to further bolster that group in the near future. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are strong rotation arms, and with a talented collection of youth complementing them (e.g. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and, sooner than later, Brandon Pfaadt), the starting pitching outlook is bright.

Arizona is out to an 11-8 start, and while the season is still quite young, expectations have shifted. Bumgarner simply hasn’t been a competitive pitcher for them in any capacity this season, and his body of work in three seasons prior gives little reason to hope for a turnaround. With the division looking more vulnerable than it has in years and the D-backs potentially on the rise, it’s just not feasible to continue on with what increasingly looks like a sunk cost.

Exactly how the rotation shakes out from this point forward remains to be seen. Piecoro tweets that 25-year-old left-hander Tommy Henry is expected to start in Bumgarner’s place next time around, though one would imagine that Pfaadt — one of the sport’s top pitching prospects — will get a look in the near future after opening the season in Triple-A. Veteran Zach Davies is also a factor, though he’s currently out with a strained oblique and figures to be sidelined into next month.

What’s clear is that Bumgarner’s time with the D-backs is virtually over. Given the left-hander’s woeful performance not only in 2023 but throughout his D-backs tenure as a whole, there’s no chance another team will roll the dice on the remaining $34.3MM on his contract. Bumgarner is being paid $23MM in 2023 and is still owed a $14MM salary for the 2024 campaign.

The Diamondbacks could technically place him on outright waivers, but he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary, and no team would claim the contract anyhow. As such, he’ll likely be placed on release waivers in the coming days and, upon clearing, become a free agent who’s eligible to sign with any other club. Any team that signs Bumgarner would only need to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the D-backs owe the lefty, but Arizona is effectively committing to eating close to $34MM in dead money by parting ways with Bumgarner at this juncture of his contract.

The Opener: Reynolds, Bumgarner, Ruf

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With the calendar having now flipped to April, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Will Reynolds, Pirates starting contest reach a conclusion?

The Pirates and star outfielder Bryan Reynolds reportedly have terms mostly agreed upon for an eight year, $106MM extension. Talks have been held up, however, by the two camps being unable to agree on the presence of an opt-out in the deal. The Reynolds camp is insisting upon an opt-out following the 2026 season, which the Pirates don’t appear willing to offer. An opt-out after 2026 would only provide the Pirates with a single additional year of team control, though Reynolds apparently is willing to agree to the deal being heavily backloaded so most of the money is paid out after the opt-out opportunity. Yesterday, it was reported that the sides “haven’t heard anything” from each other in recent days. Reynolds, a career 126 wRC+ hitter entering his age-28 season, is one of the league’s premiere players and is currently slated to reach free agency after 2025, his age-30 season.

2. MadBum to undergo testing:

Veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner struggled in his first start of the season over the weekend, allowing five runs over four innings of work against the Dodgers. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, that Bumgarner went back to Arizona to undergo testing following his start due to what was labeled “arm fatigue”. Bumgarner was once among the best starters in the league during his tenure with the Giants, but since signing his five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks, he has struggled to a 5.06 ERA in 350 2/3 innings of work. Naturally, if Bumgarner is to right the ship in his age-33 season, he’ll surely need health on his side to do so, underscoring the importance of today’s testing.

3. What will become of Ruf?

Last week, the Mets designated right-handed slugger Darin Ruf for assignment. With that DFA set to come due, it’s likely we’ll have news regarding Ruf’s status sometime today. Ruf is owed $3MM for the 2023 season and a $250K buyout on his 2024 team option. Should they be unable to work out a trade for Ruf with one of the other 29 clubs in the league, the Mets will be on the hook for that salary even if he rejects an outright assignment to Triple-A, as Ruf has more than five years of service time. The 36-year-old Ruf struggled badly in 2022 to a wRC+ of just 89, though he would certainly have value to any club if he was able to recreate his 2020-2021 seasons with the Giants, where he slashed .272/.381/.519 for a wRC+ of 142, and even his career .239/.329/.432 (110 wRC+) slash line would be of value to most clubs.

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

Hazen: Diamondbacks Have Flexibility For At Least Slight Payroll Bump

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The Diamondbacks head into the offseason looking to bolster a roster that showed some promise in the second half. General manager Mike Hazen indicated last month the team was prioritizing adding swing-and-miss to the bullpen and was looking for another right-handed bat, and he suggested this week the front office should have financial breathing room for some additions.

“I think we’re going to have some room to move,” Hazen told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). “When we’ve felt like the team has gotten better, (owner Ken Kendrick) has usually given us leeway to maneuver. I think that’s going to be the case to some degree. I don’t know that we’re going to get to levels where we’ve been in the recent past, but I think we’re going to have some flexibility to do some things. I think the talent on our team warrants some additional good players.”

That’s not the resounding promise for a payroll spike for which the fanbase was probably hoping, although it does suggest they’ll be able to dip into free agency for help. Arizona signed only three free agents — Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and Zach Davies — to big league contracts last winter, tacking on a modest $12MM on the open market. The Snakes entered the 2022 campaign with a player payroll just under $91MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their second straight year between $90MM and $96MM.

Before the pandemic-shortened season, Arizona pushed spending north of $120MM in both 2018-19. Hazen’s comments downplay the possibility of getting back to those heights in 2023, but it doesn’t seem out of the question the team could push above $100MM in Opening Day payroll for the first time since 2020.

A relief corps that had the majors lowest strikeout rate figures to be a key priority. Arizona already bought low on a reliever with decent swing-and-miss ability, claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins this week. That’s just one of what should be multiple additions, although an already-thin free agent relief market has seen arguably its top two players (Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez) agree to re-sign with their previous teams. That leaves Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero, Carlos Estévez, Seth Lugo, Andrew Chafin, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin among the top arms available, although the D-Backs are sure to look into trades and/or waivers for additional options.

One other key offseason storyline for the D-Backs is whether they’d deal from their stable of upper level outfielders. Arizona has seen Daulton Varsho and Corbin Carroll emerge as key pieces of the future, while Jake McCarthy had a strong 2022 campaign to earn everyday reps. Alek Thomas didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, but he’s a high-contact center fielder who entered the year as a top prospect. The Snakes could certainly hang onto that depth, but Hazen has spoken on a number of occasions about a willingness to entertain trade offers on members of that group.

The GM reiterated this week that dealing an outfielder is a possibility, but he emphasized he’d only do so in a move that brought back immediate MLB talent. “I’m not trading them for prospects. The prospect trade is out,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “You can take that off the table. It’ll have to be (an established or major league ready player) and at a caliber for us that we felt like we were equally maintaining (value).”

Hazen pointed out the outfield would have a trickle-down effect on how the team approaches the designated hitter position. He suggested the current outfield depth was likely to spill over to rotating players through the DH spot but acknowledged pursuing a full-fledged DH could be more realistic with a trade that ships away an outfielder. Hazen, a former Red Sox executive, pointed to David Ortiz in suggesting he’s not opposed to having an everyday DH in the right circumstances. The D-Backs certainly aren’t going to find a hitter on the level of the Hall of Fame slugger, but old friend J.D. Martinez is an impact free agent righty bat. Nelson Cruz is coming off a terrible year but could find a big league opportunity, while players like Justin Turner and Evan Longoria could fit as hybrids between a questionable third base position and DH in the desert.

Certainly, Arizona could look to the trade market for their desired right-handed bat as well — perhaps in a deal that sends out one of their lefty-swinging young outfielders. What’s clear is the Diamondbacks aren’t approaching the offseason as a rebuilder or traditional “seller,” however. To that end, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week Arizona has no plans to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly this offseason. Dealing away either of their top two starters — each of whom is controllable through 2025 — never seemed especially  likely after Arizona’s somewhat promising end to the season, particularly with the club having a number of unproven options at the back end. Rosenthal suggests the D-Backs would unsurprisingly be open to shedding some of the two years and $37MM remaining on Madison Bumgarner’s contract, although finding another team willing to take a notable chunk of that money probably isn’t happening unless Arizona shoulders an undesirable contract in return.

Hazen: D-Backs To Pursue Bullpen Help, Open To Adding At Catcher

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The Diamondbacks had a quietly solid second half, setting themselves up for an interesting offseason. Arizona’s 73-89 overall record is obviously far from where they want to be, but the team has seen a number of young position players begin to produce at the major league level.

General manager Mike Hazen addressed the roster during his end-of-season media session yesterday. He provided a rundown of areas the club will look to address this winter (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

Unsurprisingly, Hazen suggested that adding to the bullpen will be a priority. The D-Backs ran out a well below-average relief group for a third consecutive season, finishing the year 25th in ERA (4.58). Arizona relievers ranked last in the big leagues in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 28th in swinging strike percentage (10.9%). Hazen flatly stated improving the bullpen’s strikeout numbers will be a priority, suggesting the club will look into higher-velocity arms to that end.

Arizona added a pair of veteran relievers, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, in free agency last winter. Kennedy was coming off an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage with the Rangers and Phillies in 2021, but he stumbled to a 19% strikeout rate while losing a tick on his average fastball this season. Melancon hasn’t been a high-strikeout arm for years, and he posted a 4.66 ERA during his first season in the desert after posting a sub-3.00 mark in each of the previous two years. Melancon will be back next season on a $6MM salary, while Kennedy is a virtual lock to be bought out.

Of the 17 D-Backs relievers to top 10 innings pitched, only four had a swinging strike rate better than the 11.8% league average. Only one member of that group, All-Star lefty Joe Mantiply, is a lock to return. Arizona has already parted with Noé Ramirez, while Keynan Middleton and Caleb Smith were both extremely homer-prone and seem likely to be non-tendered.

The D-Backs aren’t going to make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent reliever like Edwin Díaz, but pitchers like Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro are all hitting free agency after posting quality swing-and-miss numbers. Robert Suarez, who has a $5MM player option for next year with the Padres, and Carlos Estévez are among the hardest-throwing relievers who’ll be available. Hazen also suggested the front office would be more amenable than they’ve been in recent years to dealing young talent for relief help.

While the bullpen will be a key target area, it’s certainly not the only spot on the roster the D-Backs will be open to adding. Hazen indicated the club could look into offensive help, pointing to catcher as a position they could address. Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop for the past four seasons, but he’s never made the strides as a hitter the team had hoped when adding him as a central piece of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Kelly looked as if he was on the way to his breakout with an excellent first two months in 2021, but that year was thrown off track by a right wrist fracture in late June. In the season and a half since that point, Kelly owns a .214/.287/.344 line in 526 trips to the plate.

While Hazen praised the 28-year-old’s defensive ability, he added that “chasing a little more offense at that position, given what the rest of the roster could look like, is something that we might take a look at.” It’d register as a surprise if they make a run at the top free agent at the position, Willson Contreras, but Arizona does have a fair amount of long-term financial flexibility. The Snakes have roughly $59MM on next season’s books (not including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players) and just $38MM committed by 2024.

There aren’t many definitive offensive upgrades other than Contreras available in free agency, but the trade market figures to feature a couple of the sport’s better two-way backstops. The A’s Sean Murphy will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and could be available as Oakland continues its roster overhaul. Murphy hit .250/.322/.426 through 612 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 points better than league average by measure of wRC+. It’s also possible the Blue Jays leverage their stockpile of catching depth for help elsewhere, moving a player like Danny Jansen on the heels of a .260/.339/.516 showing.

Whether at catcher or another position, Hazen suggested adding a right-handed bat to the mix was a possibility, as Arizona’s in-house lineup skews left-handed. Among their current projected regulars, only Kelly, first baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed hit right-handed. Kelly, who’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.325MM salary via arbitration, could be non-tendered if the Snakes find an upgrade at catcher. Ahmed isn’t a lock to return to everyday duty after missing almost all of this season with a shoulder injury, and he’s a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist even when at full strength.

The D-Backs have a number of lefty-swinging outfielders, all of whom are capable of playing all three outfield spots. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho were top minor league talents, and both played well this season. Carroll didn’t make his MLB debut until late August, but both he and Varsho are guaranteed everyday reps going into next year. Jake McCarthy wasn’t the same level of prospect, but he hit .283/.342/.427 over 354 trips to the dish in 2022. Alek Thomas didn’t perform well in the majors, hitting .231/.275/.344 over 411 plate appearances. Still, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder and entered this season as a top prospect.

That quartet has varying levels of trade value — Carroll and Varsho would have more appeal than McCarthy or Thomas — but there’s reason for optimism among all of that group. It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks parting with Carroll or Varsho, but dealing one of McCarthy or Thomas seems possible. Hazen unsurprisingly noted he doesn’t feel he has to trade anyone, pointing to the ability to rotate them through the designated hitter position, but he sounded amenable to a move in the right circumstance. “Take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”

Theoretically the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield depth to add starting pitching behind the top duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. While Arizona has a number of interesting young arms at or near the MLB level — Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston among them — there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty with any unproven young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, whom the club signed to a five-year deal to be the staff ace, hasn’t come close to matching his previous production in San Francisco. The four-time All-Star has an ERA of 4.67 or higher in all three of his seasons as a Diamondback, including a 4.88 mark with just a 16% strikeout rate through 30 starts this year.

Bumgarner has two years and $37MM remaining on his deal, and the D-Backs would be hard-pressed to find a taker for any notable portion of that money on the trade market. Hazen suggested the 33-year-old will have an inside track at a rotation job heading into next season but implied his leash could be getting shorter. “I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training, for sure, especially with the younger guys that we have,” the GM said of Bumgarner’s status. “But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them.”

D-Backs fans will want to read through Piecoro’s piece in full, as it contains myriad quotes from Hazen on the status of the roster and the organization’s offseason plans.

NL West Notes: Anderson, Gonsolin, May, Almonte, Bumgarner, Gonzalez

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke with reporters today, and shed some light on the Dodgers’ pitching plans and health situations heading into the postseason.  Tyler Anderson was confirmed as part of the playoff rotation, as since Tony Gonsolin is still recovering from a forearm strain, Roberts said Gonsolin will throw no more than four innings in a game, if that.  Dustin May (who just went went on the injured list yesterday due to back tightness) is slated for a bullpen role if he is healthy enough to participate.

Yency Almonte might be activated from the 10-day injured list during the Dodgers’ series against the Padres that begins on Tuesday, Roberts said.  Almonte hasn’t pitched since August 3 due to elbow tightness, but the right-hander had a rehab outing scheduled for today with Triple-A Oklahoma City.  In his first season in Los Angeles, Almonte has become an underrated piece of the bullpen mix, posting an excellent 1.15 ERA over 31 1/3 innings.

Some more from around the NL West…

  • Madison Bumgarner has thrown his last pitch of the 2022 season, as while he isn’t injured, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter links) and other reporters that the D’Backs will use younger starters in Bumgarner’s usual rotation spot.  While Bumgarner avoided injury for the first time in his three Arizona seasons, there wasn’t much to love about the left-hander’s performance, either from a bottom-line (4.88 ERA in 158 2/3 innings) or Statcast perspective — Bumgarner did pitch generally well in the first half of the season before fading after the All-Star break.  The Diamondbacks owe Bumgarner $37MM over the 2023-24 seasons, the two final years of the five-year, $85MM free agent deal that has thus far been a bust for the club.
  • The Giants placed outfielder Luis Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list yesterday, as a lower-back strain has ended Gonzalez’s season.  This is the second time back problems have sent Gonzalez to the IL this season, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that Gonzalez had “been dealing with it ever since he even got off the IL, and I just think he was a more explosive, dynamic player going into that injury….He really has earned the right to be out there, he’s battled less than optimal physical condition to give us everything he’s had.”  In both his first season in San Francisco and in his first season with real Major League playing time, Gonzalez hit a respectable .254/.323/.360 over 350 plate appearances.  As Kapler noted, the back injury certainly impacted Gonzalez’s performance — he had an .808 OPS in 180 PA prior to his first IL stint, and just a .552 OPS in 170 PA after returning to action in early July.

Trade Rumors: Gallen, Bumgarner, Cano, Perez

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Despite rival teams’ interest in Zac Gallen, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Diamondbacks right-hander is “not going anywhere.”  This isn’t the first time Gallen’s name has surfaced in trade rumors, and after an injury-marred 2021 season, Gallen has re-established himself with some very solid numbers this season.  Beyond just his ability, Gallen is also arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season, making it obvious both why other teams would want to acquire him, and why the D’Backs would want to keep him.  Though it is increasingly looking like the D’Backs will be sellers again at the deadline, the club has been resistant to moving cornerstone players and going into rebuild mode — Ketel Marte (another popular trade candidate) was even signed to an extension back in March.

One player the D’Backs “would love to move” is Madison Bumgarner, Nightengale notes, but that is a tougher sell to suitors.  After signing a five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks in December 2019, Bumgarner endured two rough seasons before bouncing back to more decent form thus far in 2022.  However, it will take more than just decent numbers for Arizona to entice another team into taking on even a decent-sized chunk of the approximately $48.4MM still owed to Bumgarner through the 2024 season.  Also, Bumgarner has a five-team no-trade clause, though the five teams on his current list aren’t known.

More trade buzz from around the league…

  • Also from Nightengale, Robinson Cano has been some getting some attention, as the veteran slugger tries to revive his career with the Padres’ Triple-A team.  Cano was suspended for the entire 2021 season and has posted only a .371 OPS over 77 plate appearances with the Padres and Mets this season, though he has been hitting well in the (batter-friendly) environment of Triple-A El Paso.  Since either the Padres or a new team would owe Cano only the prorated portion of a minimum salary if he made a big league roster, Cano could be an interesting trade chip for any team that wants to take a flier on the former All-Star.  From San Diego’s perspective, they probably wouldn’t expect much for Cano in return, or they could hypothetically include him as a part of a larger trade package.
  • Martin Perez makes some sense as a sell-high trade candidate for the Rangers, though both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney feel it might be more likely that Texas keeps the veteran lefty and even looks to extend him into at least the 2023 season.  Perez is enjoying a career year, with a 2.34 ERA over an even 100 innings, and a generally positive set of advanced metrics indicating that his performance isn’t a fluke.  Perez has helped keep the Rangers on the outskirts of the wild card race, so if Texas can string together some wins in July, the team might not be selling at the deadline whatsoever.

Pitching Notes: Kimbrel, Cubs, Braves, Lorenzen, Gray, Astros, MadBum

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The Cubs dealt Joc Pederson to the Braves tonight, though a prominent former Brave wasn’t part of the talks between the two teams, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) reports that Craig Kimbrel’s availability wasn’t discussed.  Kimbrel would obviously have been a major boost for an inconsistent Atlanta bullpen, but Kimbrel is both considerably more expensive than Pederson and the Cubs surely would’ve demanded a much higher prospect return for the All-Star closer.  Acquiring Kimbrel also would have been a clear all-in move for a Braves team that is still only 44-45, and perhaps only in contention by dint of a congested NL East.  It’s possible that Atlanta might still pivot and start selling by the trade deadline if the team sinks further under the .500 mark over the next two weeks.

More on various hurlers around the sport…

  • Kicking off the second half with a big series against the Brewers, the Reds expect to activate Michael Lorenzen and Sonny Gray from the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  After missing the entire season due to a shoulder strain, Lorenzen will likely be activated prior to Friday’s game, while Gray (rib cage strain) will start Sunday after missing only the minimum 10 days on the IL.  Lorenzen’s return will be welcomed by a Reds bullpen that has struggled all season, while Gray has pitched well despite three separate IL trips that have limited him to 62 innings.  Cincinnati placed reliever Art Warren on the 10-day IL today due to a left oblique strain, but a 40-man roster move will be necessary to reinstate Lorenzen from the 60-day IL.
  • The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez’s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds.  These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch.  On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday.  That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
  • Madison Bumgarner will be activated from the 10-day injured list to start the Diamondbacks’ game with the Cubs on Friday, according to multiple reporters (including The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan).  Bumgarner has been out of action due to shoulder inflammation since June 3, continuing what has thus far been a disastrous tenure in Arizona for the veteran lefty.  Since signing a five-year, $85MM free agent deal in the 2019-20 offseason, Bumgarner has battled injuries and posted only a 6.04 ERA over 101 1/3 innings.  It is very unlikely that a team will come calling about Bumgarner at the deadline given the size of his remaining contract, so the left-hander’s second half will just be about staying healthy and posting some solid numbers as a platform for better things next year.
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