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Dodgers Release Tony Wolters

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Aug. 19: The Dodgers have released Wolters, per the transactions log at MLB.com.

Aug. 15: The Dodgers announced Monday that catcher Austin Barnes has been reinstated from the family medical emergency list. Fellow backstop Tony Wolters was designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for Barnes’ return.

Wolters, 30, was added to the roster as the corresponding move when Barnes initially stepped away from the team for family reasons thus past Friday. He appeared in a pair of games over the weekend but went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his very brief time as a member of the Dodgers. He’ll now be placed on outright waivers or released in the next week.

A familiar face for the Dodgers and their fans thanks to a lengthy stint as the primary catcher for the Rockies, Wolters has appeared in just 16 big league games since leaving Colorado following the 2020 season (14 with the Cubs last year, plus these two with L.A.). He caught 391 games with the Rox from 2016-20, hitting .238/.323/.319 with strong defensive marks for most of his time calling Coors Field home.

Wolters was batting .216/.311/.270 in 193 plate appearances with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate at the time of his selection to the big league roster. In all, he’s a .235/.321/.314 hitter in parts of seven Major League seasons (1266 plate appearances).

Dellin Betances Reportedly Retires

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Relief pitcher Dellin Betances has decided to retire, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The 34-year-old is apparently hanging up his cleats after a career wherein he pitched in parts of ten seasons with the Yankees and Mets. He had been with the Dodgers’ organization on a minor league deal this year.

Selected by the Yankees in the eighth round of the 2006 draft, Betances was a starting pitcher in his first few years as a professional. However, command issues and various injuries eventually pushed Betances into more relief work as he moved up the ranks. He made just one MLB start, which came back in 2011.

The move to the bullpen ended up working out fabulously for both Betances and the Yankees, starting with a tremendous breakout in 2014. Though he had just 7 2/3 innings of MLB experience coming into that year, he ended up throwing 90 innings over 70 relief appearances during that campaign. He registered an ERA of just 1.40, along with an incredible 39.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 46.6% ground ball rate. He finished third in the voting for the American League Rookie of the Year award, trailing only Jose Abreu and Matt Shoemaker.

That will arguably go down as Betances’ best season, though he was still an incredibly effective reliever for the next four years. In a five-year run beginning with that 2014 season and running through 2018, he threw 374 innings, an average of almost 75 per season. He logged a combined 2.21 ERA in that time, striking out a whopping 40.4% of batters faced, though walking 10.7% of them, and getting grounders on 48.1% of balls in play. He racked up 11.3 wins above replacement during that stretch, according to FanGraphs, which was third among all relievers in baseball, trailing only Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. He made the All-Star team in four consecutive seasons, beginning with that 2014 campaign.

Unfortunately, that five-year run of dominance has been followed by a four-year run of frustration, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he began the year on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement. He wasn’t able to make his season debut until September, but tore his achilles tendon during that game after just 2/3 of an inning.

In spite of losing essentially that entire season, Betances hit free agency as a highly-touted reliever based on his previous track record. He agreed to a contract with the Mets that paid him $7.5MM in 2020, along with a $6MM player option for 2021 that came with a $3MM buyout. He ended up getting into 15 games with the Mets that year but struggled mightily. He registered a 7.71 ERA in that time, with his velocity noticeably diminished and his strikeout rate significantly lowered. He also walked 20.3% of batters faced in that short time. He was placed on the injured list due to a lat strain at the end of August and couldn’t return. After that showing, he decided to trigger his $6MM player option instead of returning to free agency. He threw just one inning for the Mets that year, which came in one April 7 appearance that will ultimately go down as his last appearance in the majors. He went on the IL with a shoulder impingement, eventually requiring season-ending surgery. His contract also came with a vesting option for 2022, where Betances would have a $1MM player option if he pitched in 50 games in 2021, which he came nowhere near.

After returning to free agency, he signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers for 2022. Though he hadn’t been effective for a few years, the Dodgers were willing to take a chance to see if he could recover any of his previous form. If he cracked the majors, he would have earned $2.75MM with further incentives available. Unfortunately, he logged a 10.26 ERA in 16 2/3 minor league innings this year, walking 16.5% of the batters he faced. After yet another frustrating sequence of events, it seems Betances had decided to walk away.

Despite the disappointing results of the past few seasons, Betances will surely be remembered for that five-year run in pinstripes where he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the world. He spent five full seasons striking fear into the hearts of opposing teams and their fans whenever he stepped to the mound. He finishes his career with 394 1/3 innings pitched in 374 games. He’ll go down in the record books with a 2.53 ERA, 36 saves, 121 holds and 633 strikeouts. We at MLBTR congratulate Betances on an excellent career and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Injury Notes: Díaz, Garcia, Rios

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The Astros announced that utility player Aledmys Díaz has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to left groin discomfort. His roster spot will go to first baseman/outfielder J.J. Matijevic, who has been recalled.

Díaz, 32, is having a nice season, serving as a super utility option for Houston. He’s played all four infield positions and also the outfield corners, hitting .252/.303/.417 for a wRC+ of 108. Given that versatility, his absence will cut into the club’s depth pretty much everywhere around the diamond, except for center field and behind the plate. Injuries have become something of a recurring theme for Díaz, as this is now the fifth straight season where he’s landed on the IL.

Mauricio Dubón, who has played everywhere except first base and catcher this season, will now be the club’s primary utility option. The club hasn’t indicated how long they expect Diaz to be out of action. He is slated to reach free agency at the end of this season.

Some other IL moves from around the league…

  • The White Sox announced that their own utility player, Leury Garcia, has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a lower back strain. Infielder Romy Gonzalez was recalled to take his place on the active roster. Garcia, 31, has certainly provided the Sox with versatility, having played every non-pitching position except for catcher and first base. However, unlike Díaz, he’s not having a strong campaign. In 288 plate appearances this year, he’s batting .212/.238/.275 for a wRC+ of just 44. He is in the first season of a three-year, $16.5MM contract that he signed with Chicago prior to this year. It’s unclear how long the club expects him to be out of action.
  • The Dodgers announced that infielder Edwin Ríos has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City. The club had a vacancy on its 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was required. Ríos, 28, suffered a hamstring tear in early June and had been out of action until beginning a rehab assignment in late July. Prior to landing on the IL, he had a nice showing in 27 big league games, hitting .244/.293/.500 for a wRC+ of 119.

Braves Claim Rylan Bannon, Designate Travis Demeritte

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The Braves announced they’ve claimed third baseman/second baseman Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett. Corner outfielder Travis Demeritte has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Bannon has been shuffled around the league in recent weeks. He’s gone from the Orioles to the Dodgers and now to Atlanta via waivers since August 8. The 26-year-old only has four big league games under his belt, but he’s long been regarded as a solid prospect and has a decent track record in the minors. He’s spent the majority of this season with the Orioles top affiliate in Norfolk, hitting .229/.347/.407 across 326 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 11 home runs and 14 doubles while drawing walks at a robust 13.8% clip, although he’s also striking out at an elevated 26.7% rate.

This is the second of three minor league option years for Bannon, who can therefore bounce between the big leagues and Triple-A for the next season and a half. Atlanta typically has an excellent infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley, with top prospect Vaughn Grissom getting the recent playing time at second base while Albies mends a broken foot. There’s not much of a path to immediate playing time for Bannon, but he’ll serve as an upper level depth option in Gwinnett.

Demeritte, 27, has appeared at the MLB level in three of the past four seasons. A former Rangers first-round pick, he spent time in the Atlanta system before being dealt to the Tigers in 2019. He made his major league debut with Detroit and spent two seasons there before returning to the Braves as a waiver claim in 2021. Atlanta passed him through outright waivers and kept him in Triple-A last year, but they selected him onto the 40-man roster at the end of the season to keep him from qualifying for minor league free agency.

He held that 40-man spot throughout the winter and has appeared in 26 big league games this season, hitting .213/.260/.337. Demeritte spent the majority of the year in Gwinnett, struggling to a .207/.291/.357 line while striking out in 34.2% of his plate appearances. Swing-and-miss has been an issue throughout his big league time as well, as Demeritte has fanned in 34.6% of his 315 trips to the plate in the majors. He owns a .216/.277/.328 career line at the highest level.

The Braves will place Demeritte on outright or release waivers within the next few days. Having previously been outrighted in his career, he’d have the right to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Dodgers Planning To Reinstate Dustin May On Saturday

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The Dodgers plan to activate righty Dustin May from the 60-day injured list to start Saturday’s game against the Marlins, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). It’ll be his first MLB appearance in over 15 months, as the 24-year-old has been out of action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2021.

One of the game’s top pitching prospects by the time he reached the majors in 2019, May has excelled in his limited big league looks to date. He broke in as a swingman in 2019, starting just four of his 14 appearances that year. May picked up 10 starts (out of 12 outings) during the shortened 2020 season, and he was a full-fledged member of the rotation for the first month last year before incurring the elbow injury.

An elite ground-ball artist, May posted a sparkling 2.62 ERA with a slightly above-average 24.9% strikeout rate over his first two big league campaigns. That was promising enough, but he looked as if he might be emerging as an ace-caliber hurler through the first month of 2021. Averaging just under 99 MPH on his fastball, May struck out an eye-popping 37.6% of batters faced while racking up grounders on 56% of the batted balls he did allow through his first five starts. He posted a 2.74 ERA over that stretch, but he was forced out of his fifth outing with the injury that eventually cost him over a year of action.

May returned to a professional mound around 14 months later, making his first rehab appearance with the Dodgers complex league team. After two innings there, he reported to Triple-A Oklahoma City for another three weeks to build back into MLB shape. May has made five starts with OKC, tossing 19 frames of four-run ball with a 33:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. More important than the results, he’s built back to five innings in each of his last two starts, tossing 68 and 70 pitches, respectively. It’s unlikely the Dodgers will count on him to run a pitch count in the triple digits right out of the gate, but a 75-85 pitch outing against Miami could be in the cards. May figures to progressively build his pitch count from there and should have ample time to transition to a traditional starter’s workload before the postseason gets under way.

If he can immediately recapture his 2021 form, May would prove a huge boost for a club that again has World Series aspirations. They were dealt a tough blow with the revelation that Walker Buehler needs to undergo elbow surgery and won’t return this season. Still, the team has gotten sub-3.00 ERA performances from all three of their starters to eclipse 100 innings this year: Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and offseason signee Tyler Anderson. Pair that trio with May, a likely late-season return from Clayton Kershaw — who continues to dominate when healthy enough to take the mound — and some small sample excellence from Andrew Heaney, and the Dodgers still have the potential to run five or six very strong starters out in October. If everyone’s healthy, one or two members of that group figure to trickle over into the bullpen, which itself ranks fourth in the majors with a 3.16 ERA.

Walker Buehler To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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The Dodgers announced Monday that right-hander Walker Buehler will undergo season-ending surgery on his right elbow on Aug. 23. He’s been out since June 10 after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 flexor strain. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic tweets that Buehler’s recent MRIs weren’t conclusive enough to determine the extent of the damage in his elbow, but Dr. Neal ElAttrache saw enough to recommend surgery. Presumably, the Dodgers will provide further details once the procedure has been performed.

That injury initially called for a six- to eight-week shutdown from throwing, and the Dodgers had surely hoped that Buehler might be able to make a comeback in late September and/or perhaps in the postseason. Instead, he won’t pitch again until next season at the earliest. Further details aren’t clear, as the team declined to provide specifics on the nature of the procedure in its initial announcement.

Buehler, 28, finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting last season but has now had multiple arm issues this season. Once it was clear that the forearm strain would sideline Buehler for as long as three months, he underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow — an issue he said had plagued him for the past few seasons.

The arm issue(s) have limited Buehler to 65 innings in 2022, during which time he’s posted a 4.02 ERA with a career-low 21.2% strikeout rate. They’re pedestrian numbers by his lofty standards — both roughly in line with the league-average production among MLB starting pitchers (4.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate).

Dating back to his first full big league season, in 2018, Buehler has established himself as a rock in the Dodgers’ rotation and as one of the most talented arms in the National League. He ranks 23rd in the Majors in innings pitched from 2018-22 — even with this year’s glut of missed time — and also ranks seventh in ERA (2.95), 25th in strikeout rate (27%) and 32nd in walk rate (6.2%) amid a field of 152 qualified starting pitchers in that time.

For the time being, Buehler will join both Clayton Kershaw (lower back discomfort) and Dustin May (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Both May and Kershaw figure to return before the end of the regular season. May recently punched out 10 hitters over five innings in his fifth Triple-A start of the season. He’s built up to 70 pitches. Kershaw, meanwhile, recently underwent an epidural injection and has resumed throwing, though there’s no immediate timetable for him to return to the Major League mound.

With that trio on the shelf, the Dodgers will look to Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and rookie Ryan Pepiot as rotation options — though Pepiot could soon be pushed out by May. Even absent a pair of big-name arms like Kershaw and Buehler, it’s a formidable group thanks to breakout performances from each of Gonsolin (2.24 ERA, 116 1/3 innings pitched), Anderson (2.81 ERA, 128 1/3 innings) and Heaney (1.16 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate in 31 innings).

Obviously, not being able to pencil Buehler into a hopeful postseason rotation stings, but the group of Urias, Gonsolin and Kershaw is still a formidable top three, with May, Anderson and Heaney  all standing as potential playoff starters as well. The broader question for the Dodgers is just what Buehler’s recovery and 2023 outlook will be.

Even in the event that Buehler required Tommy John surgery and would need to miss the majority of the 2023 season — which, to be emphatically clear, has not been indicated or even implied by the team — he’d still be a lock to be tendered a contract. The 2022 campaign was the second of a two-year, $8MM deal buying out Buehler’s first two arbitration years. He’ll be arb-eligible four times as a Super Two player, meaning he has two raises to go. Because of this year’s limited workload, he’ll be due only a modest raise on his $4.25MM salary, making it a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him in the fold.

That said, the extent of Buehler’s recovery period will surely impact the Dodgers’ offseason direction and inform the level of aggression with which they pursue rotation help. The Dodgers currently stand to see Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney all potentially walk as free agents, so they’ll definitely be in the mix for starting pitching help this offseason.

Dodgers Select Tony Wolters, Designate Rylan Bannon

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The Dodgers announced they’ve selected catcher Tony Wolters to the big league roster. He’ll take the spot of Austin Barnes, who’s going on the family emergency list (a placement that can last anywhere from three to seven days). To create space for Wolters on the 40-man roster, Los Angeles designated infielder Rylan Bannon for assignment.

Wolters is up for the first time this season to make his Dodgers debut. The longtime Rockies backstop also suited up with the Cubs last season. He’ll be making a big league appearance for a seventh straight year if he gets into a game. The lefty-swinging Wolters hasn’t done much at the plate as a big leaguer, owning a career .236/.322/.315 line in over 400 contests despite playing the bulk of his home games at Coors Field. He’s rated as an excellent pitch framer throughout his MLB career, though, and he’s cut down an above-average 30.7% of attempted basestealers in the big leagues.

The 30-year-old has spent the entire 2022 season with Triple-A Oklahoma City after signing a minor league deal last summer. He’s hitting .216/.311/.269 over 50 games, drawing walks at a strong 11.4% clip but not connecting on a single home run and striking out at a 26.4% rate. He’ll offer a defense-minded backup behind Will Smith while Barnes attends to a family matter.

The Dodgers just claimed Bannon off waivers from the Orioles earlier in the week. It was a return to the 26-year-old’s original organization, as he entered pro ball as a Dodgers draftee back in 2017. Los Angeles included Bannon in the Manny Machado trade a year later, and he’s spent most of the past four years in the upper minors with the O’s. His return to the Dodgers could prove very brief, as he’ll now find himself back on waivers within the next few days.

Bannon has played in four big league games with Baltimore this season, the first MLB action of his career. He’s otherwise spent the year with the O’s top affiliate in Norfolk, putting up a .229/.347/.407 line over 326 trips to the plate. Bannon has hit 11 homers and walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances, but he’s punched out at a 26.7% clip this year.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

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