Dodgers Rumors

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Brandon Beachy

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2023 at 10:00am CDT

Over 1,500 players were taken in the 2008 MLB draft, and Indiana Wesleyan University third baseman and closer Brandon Beachy was not one of them. Braves scout Gene Kerns signed him as an undrafted free agent for $20,000, and later remarked, “He’s just a young man with a lot of talent that no one discovered.”

After Beachy led the minors with a 1.73 ERA as a starting pitcher in 2010, he could no longer be ignored. He got the call at age 24, and in his second big league start Beachy struck out nine in an outing against the Nationals. He made the Braves’ NLDS roster against the Giants, but didn’t get into a game in that series.

Beachy broke camp in the Braves’ rotation in 2011 and had an excellent season. He put up a 3.68 ERA in 25 starts, leading all of MLB in strikeout rate among those with at least 140 innings. Beachy’s 169 punchouts set a Braves rookie record, until Julio Teheran topped it by one two years later and Spencer Strider flew past both of them last year. And keep in mind, 2011 was a time when the average MLB starter had a 17.6 K%, as opposed to 21.6% in 2022. Beachy put up a 28.6 K% that year, in his first full season.

Beachy was still riding high on June 16th, 2012, leading the Majors with a 2.00 ERA after 13 starts. Unfortunately, at that point Beachy wound up needing Tommy John surgery. Only 13 months later, Beachy was back on a Major League mound with Atlanta. His ascent was again derailed when it was discovered he’d need a second Tommy John procedure the following spring.

Non-tendered by the Braves after 2014, Beachy signed a deal with the Dodgers in February 2015. He made it back for a couple starts in July of 2015, but sadly, those would be the last of Beachy’s MLB career. He made one appearance for the Arizona League Dodgers in 2016, and didn’t resurface again until signing with the independent league New Britain Bees in August 2018. Beachy parlayed that into a minor league deal with the Giants in 2019. He made one appearance for the Sugar Land Skeeters in 2020 before calling it quits at age 34. As Beachy puts it in an email to MLBTR, “Fear of what was next led to a few comeback attempts (some indy ball and minors) I probably shouldn’t have made.”

Unfortunately, the realization around MLB that pitchers need more than 13 months to recover from Tommy John surgery came after Beachy first received the procedure. His story serves as a reminder that a return to form is far from guaranteed after this serious surgery.

It was surprising that Beachy made it to the Majors in the first place, and then after he established himself it was surprising that he only made 48 career starts. However, he can still say that at some point 11 or 12 years ago, he was one of the very best pitchers in MLB. In 2011, Beachy punched out 10+ batters on three separate occasions. And in 2012 against the Marlins, he authored a complete game, 122-pitch shutout.

Once one of the faces of the Braves franchise, Brandon is now into franchising in a different sense. In explaining his post-playing career, Beachy says, “Franchising was for me. I could use the skills that I developed through a life in sports (hard work, self-motivation, resilience, teamwork and leadership) and apply them to a proven system to be successful.” That led Brandon to a company called FranChoice, where he offers “a free service of educating other former players, and people of all walks of life too about franchising and then after getting to know them, match them with businesses that would be fits for them and their goals, guiding them through that process.” You can check out Brandon’s LinkedIn page here.

Brandon chatted with MLBTR readers for nearly two hours today, regaling us with some fantastic baseball stories. The one about his hijinks at Wrigley Field is a classic. Brandon also discussed his former Braves teammates, his Tommy John experience, pitching against former stars of the game, and much more. Read the transcript here.

If you’re a current or former MLB player, we’d love to have you on for a chat! It’s quite easy to do, and you get to pick which questions to publish and answer. Reach out if you’re interested!

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

By Darragh McDonald | February 7, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Dodgers Notes: Valenzuela, Urias, Vargas, Muncy

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 7:21am CDT

Fernandomania will run wild again at Dodger Stadium this summer, as the Dodgers officially announced that Fernando Valenzuela’s number #34 will be retired during the team’s series with the Rockies on August 11-13. While the #34 jersey hasn’t been issued to another Dodgers player since Valenzuela departed following the 1990 season, the number hadn’t been ceremonially taken out of circulation due to the club’s unofficial policy of only retiring the numbers of players who had been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Valenzuela’s 17-year Major League career began with 11 seasons with Los Angeles from 1980-90, and he posted a 3.31 ERA over his 2348 2/3 innings in Dodger Blue. After appearing in 10 games as a reliever in 1980, Valenzuela’s spectacular 1981 campaign made him the only player to ever win a Rookie of the Year Award and a Cy Young Award in the same season. The Mexico native was a fan favorite everywhere, but in particular became a hero amongst the Mexican-American population in Southern California. Valenzuela’s time in L.A. saw him achieve three more top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting, make six All-Star appearances, and win two World Series titles in 1981 and 1988.

Dodgers Sign Miguel Rojas To Contract Extension

By Mark Polishuk | February 4, 2023 at 5:41pm CDT

The Dodgers and infielder Miguel Rojas have agreed to a contract extension that will keep Rojas in Los Angeles through at least the 2024 season, according to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link and link to the Spanish-langugage full story). Rojas was already set to earn $5MM in 2023, but this new deal reworks that money into a $3.5MM salary and a $1.5MM signing bonus. Rojas will then earn another $5MM in 2024, and the Dodgers hold a $5MM club option on Rojas for 2025, with a $1MM buyout.

All told, it adds up to another $6MM in guaranteed money for the Beverly Hills Sports Council client. Rojas had previously been playing on a two-year, $10MM deal signed when he was a member of the Marlins, and that extension covered the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Breaking into the majors with the Dodgers in 2014, Rojas was dealt to the Marlins during the 2014-15 offseason and then established himself as a leader on and off the field in Miami. Rojas moved from a utility role to regular duty as the Marlins’ shortstop, and his consistently strong defense provided value to club even if his offense was generally below average. Rojas had a 91 wRC+ from 2015-21, but he dropped to a 73 wRC+ in 2022 on the heels of a .236/.283/.323 slash line over 507 plate appearances.

Wrist problems may have contributed to Rojas’ underwhelming season, as he underwent surgery on his wrist back in October. Reports circulated last month that Rojas was also going to undergo another procedure, and the infielder told reporters (including the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett) today that he had a loose piece of bone removed from his right hand three weeks ago. The surgeries won’t appear to have set Rojas back, as he is already hitting off a tee and has expressed interest in playing for his native Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic if healthy.

Despite the injuries and the 2022 numbers, the Dodgers still traded for Rojas in January, as L.A. dealt Jacob Amaya (a strong-fielding prospect with some questions about his bat) to Miami in the straight-up swap. With Trea Turner now a Phillie and Gavin Lux slated to take over as the everyday shortstop, adding Rojas gives the Dodgers a capable veteran who can perhaps fill in at short if Lux has any trouble adjusting, and otherwise serve as depth around the infield.

The extension is a nice early birthday present for Rojas (who turns 34 later this month) and it also underscores the Dodgers’ belief that the veteran can be a key contributor to the roster. Shorter-term extensions have been a favored tactic for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman as of late, as Los Angeles also inked such players as Max Muncy, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and Austin Barnes to deals that give the Dodgers up to two years of extra control. In the first three of those instances, the Dodgers made an early guarantee on a 2023 club option, and added another club option year to the back end of the contract.

Rojas’ deal is a little different since he was already under contract for 2023. From a luxury tax perspective, the extension slightly raises Rojas’ tax number from $5MM to $5.5MM, which is the new average annual value of what is technically a two-year deal (since his 2023 salary was reworked) for accounting purposes. While Los Angeles had soared over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, there was some thought that the club might look to duck under the line and reset its tax penalty status, with an eye towards going back into CBT territory next winter. But, with the Dodgers now projected to be slightly over the $233MM threshold, Friedman said this week that the Dodgers were “doing all we can to win a championship this year,” rather than keep an eye on the tax bill by trading players.

Jake McGee Retires

By Anthony Franco | February 3, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

Longtime MLB reliever Jake McGee is retiring, he tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 36-year-old said he’ll return to Tropicana Field at some point next season to celebrate his time with the Rays’ organization.

“I feel like it’s kind of the right time,” McGee said. “I’d rather be at home with my family. I played 13 years. I won a World Series in ‘20. It’s about time to stop. I don’t want to grind it out and keep bouncing around and stuff like that.” He tells Topkin that a combination of ongoing knee issues and a desire to spend more time with his wife and their daughter contributed to his decision to step away at this point.

McGee entered the professional ranks nearly two decades ago. Drafted by the then-Devil Rays in the fifth round in 2004 out of a Nevada high school, he spent a few seasons climbing the minor league ladder as a starting pitcher. He thrice appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list, peaking at 15th heading into the 2008 season. While initial reports of a potential future as a top-of-the-rotation starter didn’t materialize — perhaps in part due to a 2008 Tommy John procedure — McGee took off upon moving to the bullpen in 2010.

The southpaw made his big league debut as a September call-up that year, not long after his 24th birthday. He bounced on and off the MLB roster the following season and carved out a permanent bullpen role by 2012. McGee posted a sparkling 1.95 ERA with a massive 34.4% strikeout rate across 55 1/3 innings, kicking off a few seasons as one of the game’s best relief weapons.

Over a three-year stretch from 2012-14, McGee avoided the injured list and soaked up 189 1/3 frames of 2.61 ERA ball. His 31.9% strikeout percentage over that run ranked 13th among relievers with 100+ innings and only seven relievers had a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates. While he never made an All-Star team, he was clearly among the sport’s top high-leverage arms.

The 2015 season was McGee’s final with the Rays. It proved a challenge, as he was delayed to start the year by offseason elbow surgery and tore the meniscus in his left knee late in the season. When healthy enough to take the mound, he had another excellent showing. McGee twirled 37 1/3 innings with a 2.41 ERA and 32.7% strikeout percentage.

With Tampa Bay coming off an 80-82 record and McGee two seasons from free agency, he became one of the following offseason’s more intriguing trade chips. The Rays eventually packaged him with then-prospect Germán Márquez to the Rockies for outfielder Corey Dickerson and minor league infielder Kevin Padlo. The deal paid particular dividends for Colorado with Márquez’s emergence into staff ace, but McGee himself had a solid run early in his time there.

After a disappointing 4.73 ERA showing during his first season as a Rockie, he bounced back to the tune of a 3.61 mark across 57 1/3 innings in 2017 — helping the team to a Wild Card berth. That’s no small feat in the sport’s most hitter-friendly home venue, and the Rox kept him around via free agency. He signed a three-year, $27MM deal over the 2017-18 offseason, part of a bullpen spending spree that also saw Colorado bring in Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis.

That didn’t pan out as the organization hoped. Each of Shaw, McGee and Davis struggled to varying degrees. Home runs became a particular issues in McGee’s case, as his heavy reliance on four-seam fastballs up in the strike zone lost effectiveness when his velocity dipped a couple ticks during the 2018-19 seasons. The Rockies released McGee two seasons into the contract, but he promptly kicked off a late-career renaissance with a pair of division rivals.

Signing with the Dodgers for the shortened 2020 campaign, McGee ranked fifth among qualified relievers with a 41.8% strikeout rate over 24 outings. He saw some action in both the Championship Series and the World Series, getting into one game during a Fall Classic against his original organization. The Dodgers defeated the Rays in six games to win the only championship of McGee’s career, though he was part of another very successful club in San Francisco the next season.

He inked a two-year, $7MM deal with the Giants. During the first season, he picked up mostly where he’d left off in L.A. McGee’s strikeouts fell back to 24.3%, but he was among the game’s stingiest at avoiding walks and posted a 2.72 ERA through 59 2/3 innings. He assumed the closing role for a good chunk of the year, saving 31 of San Francisco’s 107 wins. The Giants edged out the Dodgers in a tight NL West race but saw L.A. get their revenge in a five-game Division Series that October.

The 2022 season, which’ll prove to be McGee’s last, was a struggle. He was hit hard through 24 contests in San Francisco, leading to his release in July. The veteran caught on briefly with the Brewers and Nationals at points during the second half but didn’t find much success at either stop. His final outing came in early September before Washington released him.

While he didn’t punctuate things with a great season, McGee steps away with a very strong body of work. He pitched for six different clubs over a 13-year MLB career, posting a cumulative 3.71 ERA through 572 1/3 innings. He struck out 613 of the 2359 batters he faced, a strong 26% clip. McGee finished 182 contests and collected 79 saves while holding 141 more leads and was credited with 32 wins. He had five separate seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA and four years in which he fanned upwards of 30% of opponents. According to Baseball Reference, he collected more than $37MM in earnings along the way.

MLBTR congratulates McGee on an excellent run and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Sign Luke Williams, Yusniel Diaz, Robbie Erlin To Minor League Deals

By Anthony Franco | February 3, 2023 at 8:45pm CDT

The Dodgers announced a number of non-roster invitees to Spring Training this afternoon. While the bulk of the group had been previously reported, Los Angeles has brought back a trio of players who have prior experience with the organization: utilityman Luke Williams, outfielder Yusniel Díaz and left-hander Robbie Erlin.

Williams, 26, has played for the Phillies, Giants and Marlins over the past two seasons. He’s gotten into 137 MLB games, tallying 244 plate appearances of .240/.299/.316 hitting. He’s picked up just two home runs while striking out at a 27.5% clip against big league pitching. The former third-round pick swiped 11 bases in only 79 games last season, though, and he’s played every position on the diamond aside from pitcher and catcher.

Los Angeles nabbed Williams off waivers from Miami at the start of the offseason. They opted not to tender him a contract just ten days later, sending him to free agency. That’s not an uncommon path with players whom teams hope to keep in the organization without dedicating a 40-man roster spot. The non-tender meant the Dodgers didn’t have to place Williams on waivers themselves. While he was free to shop for other opportunities as a free agent, the Dodgers circled back to add him on a non-roster pact.

Díaz, also 26, entered pro ball as a high-profile signee by the Dodgers out of Cuba back in 2015. At that point, teams weren’t strictly limited by hard-capped bonus pools for international amateur free agents. Los Angeles gave Díaz a hefty $15.5MM signing bonus (and paid a matching amount in taxes) back when he was 18 years old. He spent the next couple seasons as one of the more highly-regarded players in the system before being traded to Baltimore in 2018 as the headlining piece of a package for Manny Machado.

The following offseason, Díaz appeared among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects. Initially praised for his offensive polish and a patient plate approach, his productivity stalled out over the next few seasons. Díaz spent three years in the upper minors with Baltimore, managing only a .210/.295/.313 line through 495 plate appearances for their top affiliate in Norfolk. Fringy athleticism also pushed him primarily to the corner outfield after some early-career work in center. Díaz wound up playing in just one big league contest for the Orioles, striking out in his only MLB plate appearance to date.

At the end of last season, the O’s outrighted him off their 40-man roster. He qualified for minor league free agency and heads back to his original organization in search of a rebound. He joins Jason Heyward, Bradley Zimmer and Steven Duggar among non-roster outfield options who’ll be in Dodgers’ camp. Díaz is likely to start the upcoming season with Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Erlin is the only member of this trio who has appeared in an MLB game for the Dodgers. He came out of the bullpen twice last year, allowing two runs in as many innings. The 32-year-old southpaw was on the roster for less than a week before being designated for assignment in early May. He spent the majority of the season in OKC, where he worked 77 innings across 21 outings (including 14 starts).

The hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League gave Erlin trouble, as he allowed just over seven earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 19.1% of opposing hitters against a 9.7% walk percentage. Despite the middling results, the longtime Padre caught the L.A. front office’s attention enough for a return showing as a depth starter. Erlin has pitched in parts of eight big league campaigns, posting a 4.87 ERA over 341 2/3 innings.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, Bleday, Alvarez, Outman, Steer

By Brad Johnson | February 3, 2023 at 2:35pm CDT

Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.

Five BHPs In The News

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469

In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.

JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309

The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.

As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.

James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586

Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.

Three More

George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.

Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.

Friedman: Dodgers Won’t Trade From Roster To Avoid Luxury Tax

By Darragh McDonald | February 2, 2023 at 4:00pm CDT

The Dodgers have had a quieter offseason than in recent years, limiting their acquisitions primarily to veterans on short-term deals so far. Many had speculated that the club was planning to dip under the competitive balance tax threshold in order to avoid paying the tax for a third year in a row and enter 2024 as a “first-time” payor. If they had any designs on that kind of approach, they largely went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced, putting $22.5MM back onto their ledger.

That led some people to wonder if the club would then pivot to trading some salaried player to reduce their tax number, but Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has denied that will be a consideration. “No,” Friedman responded to the suggestion, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “We’re doing all we can to win a championship this year.”

Roster Resource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $238MM, just $5MM over the $233MM threshold. Trading some salary to dip back under could be theoretically possible, though it would come with challenges. Blake Treinen is a name that has been speculatively floated by some as a candidate for such a trade, given his $8MM salary this year. However, he underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated 10-month recovery time. The Dodgers would have to include some kind of prospect to convince any team to take on that kind of money for a guy likely to miss the whole season. Others have floated Chris Taylor as a candidate for a salary-dumping deal, since he’s still owed $45MM over the next three years. But moving him now would be selling low after he had a subpar .221/.304/.373 showing last year. It would also subtract from an outfield that already appears to be somewhat thin. Even if the club did pull off some kind of move to limbo under the line, they would then be handcuffed by what moves they could make during the season, as making a notable deadline deal could get them right back over again.

Though they apparently aren’t going to avoid the tax this year, they have still kept their moves modest this winter. They’ve signed some veterans to one-year deals in Clayton Kershaw, J.D. Martinez, Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller, as well as acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins, who has just one year remaining on his deal. Regardless of the financials involved, it seems the club is hoping for their prospect pipeline to feed their big league roster in a significant way this winter, with names like Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney having departed via free agency.

James Outman has just four big league games under his belt but could potentially get a significant run in the outfield this year. Miguel Vargas has played 18 major league games but could be the club’s everyday second baseman if he’s playing well and Gavin Lux is successful in moving over to shortstop. Infield/outfield prospect Michael Busch has yet to make his debut but reached Triple-A last year and could push himself into the picture. Outfield prospect Andy Pages hasn’t made it to the big leagues yet either but spent all of last year at Double-A and should be on the cusp this season.

The club’s rotation seems in solid shape with Kershaw and Syndergaard joined by Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Of course, pitcher injuries are inevitable and a path will eventually open up for prospects here as well. Ryan Pepiot has already made his major league debut, getting into nine games last year. He’s a bit ahead of Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, who aren’t on the 40-man yet, though they each reached Triple-A last year and could have roster spots before long.

That tempered offseason means the club is just barely over the CBT line, but they will still be facing a steep tax rate. Since they also paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they will be considered a third-time payor this year if they stay over. That means they will be paying a 50% tax on all spending over that threshold and that rate jumps to 62% if they eventually get above the $253MM line. Currently, that only amounts to paying about $2.5MM in taxes, but the final tally will depend on how the rest of the year plays out.

Though resetting their tax status doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, it’s possible that the opportunity will arise again after the upcoming season. Since their additions have been limited to veterans who will reach free agency in November, there’s a decent amount of money coming off the books later this year. Kershaw, Martinez, Syndergaard, Miller, Rojas and Urías are all slated to hit the open market. The club has an option for Treinen for 2024 with the value falling somewhere between $1MM and $7MM based on his health and other factors. Since he’s going to miss most or all of the upcoming season, it will likely be on the cheap end of that spectrum. Then there’s Bauer’s deal, which will be off the books as well since 2022 is the last year of his contract. Max Muncy and Daniel Hudson have club options for 2024, though at reasonable salary numbers that seem likely to be triggered if they’re healthy.

That will give the club plenty of payroll flexibility next year but will also create roster holes. How much work the club has to do next winter will depend on how many of those gaps can be filled internally. The departures of Kershaw and Urias will be a blow to the rotation, but Walker Buehler will return from his August 2022 Tommy John surgery at some point and perhaps one of the prospects grabs hold of a job. Martinez and Rojas will be subtracted from the position player side of things, but maybe one of the youngsters emerges there as well. It will make 2023 an interesting season to watch, both for the season itself and its future implications, which will be followed by an offseason where the top available free agent could be Shohei Ohtani.

The Dodgers’ Outfield Gambles

By Anthony Franco | February 1, 2023 at 10:24pm CDT

It’s been a fairly quiet offseason by Dodgers’ standards, as they have shied away from the top-of-the-market commitments they’ve embraced in prior years. Los Angeles re-signed Clayton Kershaw, brought in J.D. Martinez, Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller on one-year free agent pacts, and acquired Miguel Rojas from the Marlins to bolster their middle infield depth. They watched Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bellinger depart.

While it’s still one of the sport’s strongest rosters top to bottom, the Dodgers have a few more question marks than they’ve had in recent years. That’s especially true in the outfield. Mookie Betts is a superstar; the two other positions are more up in the air. Bellinger was cut loose after two straight dismal offensive seasons, leaving a center field vacancy the organization hasn’t subsequently addressed.

Their relatively restrained winter was seemingly tied to a desire to dip under the $233MM luxury tax threshold. That would have reset their payor status and avoid the associated escalating penalties if/when they went back above that mark next offseason. The reduction of Trevor Bauer’s suspension put more than $22MM back onto the books and pushed them narrowly back above the threshold, which they doubled down on with the Rojas trade. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic suggested as part of a reader mailbag last week the team no longer seems likely to try to limbo underneath the tax line.

That theoretically opens the potential for further spending, since the Dodgers’ projected $238MM CBT figure is quite a bit lower than those of their previous two seasons. There hasn’t been much indication Los Angeles plans to make any meaningful additions between now and Opening Day though. The Dodgers monitored the center field market earlier in the winter but have come up empty. That’s now virtually barren, aside from a potential trade for Minnesota’s Max Kepler (who’s more familiar with right field) or a long shot deal involving Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds. The corner outfield market still has Jurickson Profar and depth types like Ben Gamel and David Peralta available in free agency and perhaps trade possibilities like Anthony Santander or Seth Brown. The Dodgers haven’t been publicly linked to anyone in that group.

If this is the outfield, the team will go into the season with more notable questions than they’ve had in the past couple years. Betts is still one of the top five players in the sport. His projected outfield mates all have talent but come with easy to spot downside. Let’s run through the group who could join Betts on the Dodger Stadium grass.

Chris Taylor

Taylor’s equally capable of playing the infield but seems ticketed for outfield work, particularly in the wake of the Rojas pickup. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM over the weekend that was the plan. Freddie Freeman, rookie Miguel Vargas, Gavin Lux, Max Muncy and Rojas figure to cover the infield if everyone’s healthy, with J.D. Martinez manning designated hitter.

A year ago, Taylor playing everyday in left or center field would’ve been a perfectly comfortable solution. While it might play out that way, it’s no longer as safe a bet after he struggled in the first season of a new four-year deal. For the first time in his six seasons in Southern California, Taylor posted a below-average slash line. He hit .221/.304/.373 with 10 home runs across 454 plate appearances, missing around a month midseason with a foot fracture.

Taylor still drew a decent number of walks with a slightly above-average hard contact percentage, but his contact rate cratered. He struck out in over 35% of his plate appearances, the highest rate of any player with 450+ trips. It was a similar story on a per-pitch basis. Taylor made contact on only 62.1% of his swings, again the worst mark among hitters who logged as much playing time as he did.

One poor season doesn’t entirely negate the .265/.343/.461 line he managed between 2017-21. He’s certainly talented enough to play better than he did in 2022. Yet given last year’s struggles, the Dodgers may need a contingency plan in the event he again battles significant swing-and-miss concerns. That’s particularly true given the Dodgers’ questionable center field composition.

Trayce Thompson

Thompson is probably going to get the first crack at that job with the team not making any additions. In one regard, the 31-year-old is in the opposite boat as Taylor. He had an incredible 2022 season that belied his lack of an established MLB track record before last year. That said, the main concern with Thompson is the same as it for L.A.’s presumptive left fielder: strikeouts.

Acquired from the Tigers in a seemingly minor June trade, Thompson got into 80 games for L.A. down the stretch. He was given 255 plate appearances, his most in a big league campaign since 2016, and was one of the team’s most effective hitters. He put up a .256/.353/.507 line with 13 home runs. Thompson made hard contact on a massive 47% of his batted balls while walking at an excellent 12.7% clip. That kind of power and plate discipline are intriguing, though his 36.5% strikeout percentage was even higher than Taylor’s.

It wouldn’t matter that Thompson’s striking out at that rate if he’s reaching base and driving the ball the way he did last season. Whether he can maintain that kind of form over a full schedule is unclear. Thompson has never played more than 80 MLB games in a year and carried a career .208/.283/.405 line into last season. He’s shown the physical tools to impact a lineup at his best and enough swing-and-miss to result in an unplayable on-base percentage at his worst.

James Outman

The 25-year-old Outman is probably the first man up in the event of an injury or performance struggles from Thompson. He played in four big league games last year but spent most of the season in the upper minors. It was a breakout year for the former 7th-round draftee. Between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City, Outman connected on 31 home runs and doubles apiece while posting a cumulative .294/.393/.586 slash in 559 plate appearances. He walked at a 12.5% clip while striking out 27.2% of the time.

Again, it’s an offensive profile driven by power and walks with concerning whiff totals. Outman is a good prospect, checking in 10th on Baseball America’s offseason write-up of a strong Dodgers’ system. The outlet praises Outman’s power and suggests he’s athletic enough to be an above-average center fielder. There’s a chance he’s an everyday player, though BA suggests he might be better suited in a role-playing or platoon capacity given his propensity for whiffs on breaking pitches. Even the latter outcome would be a great return on a 7th-round pick and a testament to Outman’s excellent minor league résumé but it raises concerns about his viability as an everyday player on a team with championship aspirations.

Overall Outlook

There are things to like about each of Taylor, Thompson and Outman. It’s certainly not an outfield devoid of upside. Yet it’s not as stable as the rest of the Dodgers’ roster or the outfields L.A. has run out in previous years. That’s reflective of Bellinger’s unexpected offensive collapse that led to his non-tender and the club’s comparatively modest offseason overall.

Barring a late-winter pickup, the onus may fall on skipper Dave Roberts to patch things together more than he’s needed in the past. A platoon of the lefty-swinging Outman and right-handed Thompson might suffice in center field. Vargas can play some left field on days when he’s not in the infield, and perhaps Martinez will log a little corner outfield work in addition to his DH reps.

Andy Pages is a quality power-hitting prospect who is already on the 40-man roster. He may still be a year away after a fine but unexceptional showing in Double-A. Michael Busch is another highly-regarded offensive player whose defensive questions at second base could push him to left field, but he’s barely played there as a professional. Jonny DeLuca is on the 40-man roster as a potential depth player. Veteran Bradley Zimmer will be in camp as a non-roster invitee and another minor league deal or two seems plausible.

There are plenty of players who could work their way into consideration. Outman, Pages, Busch and Vargas are highly-regarded prospects and highlight the kind of farm depth the Dodgers could leverage in trade midseason if the current group doesn’t pan out. While things are far from dire, the Dodgers look prepared to take more of a gamble in the outfield than they have in years past.

Dodgers Move Danny Lehmann To Bench Coach

By Anthony Franco | February 1, 2023 at 2:56pm CDT

The Dodgers announced their 2023 coaching staff this afternoon (link via Dodger Insider). The biggest news is the hiring of Danny Lehmann as bench coach, his first time serving as Dave Roberts’ top assistant.

Lehmann, 37, is a graduate of Rice University. He spent some time in the Twins’ minor league system, reaching Triple-A for parts of four seasons. After a seven-year professional playing career, he transitioned to executive work by 2015. Initially hired by the Dodgers as a video scout, he worked his way up to game planning/communications coach on Roberts’ staff. He’s held that position in four of the last five years — with an intervening 2019 stint as a front office special assistant — and now looks set to shoulder his largest responsibility for the organization.

He’ll replace Bob Geren in that role. The veteran coach moves to major league field coordinator for his eighth season in the organization. Geren had been L.A. bench coach for the past seven years. He remains on the big league staff but vacates the bench coach position.

The rest of Los Angeles’ staff had been previously reported. Mark Prior is back as pitching coach, while Robert Van Scoyoc and Aaron Bates will share hitting coach duties. Josh Bard is back as bullpen coach, with Clayton McCullough and Dino Ebel coaching the bases. Connor McGuiness returns as Prior’s assistant pitching coach. There is no new hire to fill Lehmann’s previous role.

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