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Latest On The Dodgers' Rotation Plans

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Dodgers right-hander Noah Syndergaard threw a 50 pitch bullpen session yesterday, testing a cut on his right index finger that caused him to depart his last start after just one inning. Syndergaard is currently slated to start Monday’s game against the Twins, though JP Hoonstra of the Orange County Register notes that the club plans to pivot to youngster Gavin Stone in the event that Syndergaard is not cleared by Dodgers medical staff. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the plan is for Syndergaard to start tomorrow followed by Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday, though Stone was scratched from his Triple-A start today, a fact which Roberts did not comment on. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Kershaw may go on the bereavement list following the death of his mother yesterday, but Roberts says Kershaw currently plans on making that decision following Tuesdays start.

Syndergaard, who signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this past offseason, has struggled in LA to the tune of a 6.12 ERA in 32 1/3 innings of work this season. A .333 BABIP and a strand rate of just 64.3% indicate some of Syndergaard’s woes can be chalked up to bad luck, but it’s clear that the 30-year-old right-hander is scuffling beyond that, as his 14.8% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, as is his 38.4% groundball rate if you exclude the 2021 campaign where he pitched just two innings.

Stone, who made his MLB debut earlier this month, is one of the top prospects in a highly-rated Dodgers farm system. The 24-year-old scuffled in his first taste of big league action, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks over four innings while striking out just one. Despite the rocky start to his big league career, Stone figures to be a major part of the club’s future given the uncertainty in the Dodgers’ rotation following this season, as each of Syndergaard, Julio Urias, and Kershaw could depart after the 2023 campaign.

Latest On Dodgers’ Jimmy Nelson, Daniel Hudson

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) with updates on some injured players today, and the news wasn’t good in regards to right-handers Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson.  Nelson’s rehab assignment will have to be restarted after he was recently shut down due to some discomfort while throwing.  Hudson is throwing as part of his recovery from a torn ACL last June, but Roberts said that Hudson’s knee hasn’t responded to the point that a rehab assignment could be planned.

Nelson hasn’t pitched since 2021, as a Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2022 season.  The Dodgers declined their $1.1MM club option on Nelson back in November, but then re-signed him to a new deal that pays the righty $1.2MM in guaranteed money, plus quite a bit of extra bonus money based on how many starts, relief outings, or appearances of a certain length he might make in 2023.

However, there’s now fresh uncertainty over exactly whether or not Nelson might pitch at all this year, given both this setback and his lengthy injury history.  Nelson began the season on the 15-day injured list since a shaky Spring Training performance indicated that he needed more time to fully ramp up, but he made just one minor league rehab outing (on April 25 with Triple-A Oklahoma City).  A move to the 60-day IL would keep Nelson off the Dodgers’ active roster until the end of May, but since that might be an optimistic target date at this point, Los Angeles could indeed shift Nelson to the 60-day if the team needs to create space on the 40-man roster.

Hudson was moved to the 60-day IL himself in mid-April, though it was already expected that he’d need a lengthier recovery, especially since ankle tendinitis slowed his spring work.  Given the severity of an ACL year, it isn’t necessarily unusual that Hudson’s knee still isn’t quite feeling 100 percent, though the lack of a rehab timeline at this point also isn’t a great sign.

The Dodgers took a calculated risk on a quicker recovery, making an early decision in late September on exercising their $6.5MM club option on Hudson’s services for 2023, and then working out an extension in the form of another club option (worth a minimum of $6.5MM) for 2024.  While there’s still plenty of time left in the season for Hudson to return, the $6.5MM investment stands out for a team that initially seemed to be planning to duck under the luxury tax threshold last offseason, as there’s no guarantee that Hudson can regain his old form when he gets back onto the mound.  Hudson looked excellent over 24 1/3 innings prior to his ACL tear, posting a 2.22 ERA with outstanding peripheral numbers.

The Dodgers’ Youth Movement Is Showing Positive Results

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The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.

What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.

James Outman

Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.

Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.

In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Miguel Vargas

Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.

The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.

The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.

Michael Busch

Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.

Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller

These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.

Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.

Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.

Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.

Future Options

Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.

Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.

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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.

Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.

On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.

Dodgers Sticking With Noah Syndergaard In Rotation

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  • It has also been a tough road for Noah Syndergaard in 2023, as his Dodgers tenure has begun with a 6.32 ERA over his first six starts and 31 1/3 innings since signing a one-year, $13MM free agent deal.  However, manager Dave Roberts told the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett and other reporters that even as L.A. continues to juggle its rotation, the club isn’t considering removing Syndergaard from the starting five.  The righty will get some extra time between starts, with Syndergaard projected for an eight-day break before his next scheduled outing on Tuesday.  Both Michael Grove and Gavin Stone made some starts while Tony Gonsolin was on the injured list, but with Gonsolin now back and Grove now on the IL with a groin injury, the Dodgers will now stick with a normal five-man rotation.  Roberts said that rather than keep Stone in the majors for another start and a brief shift to a six-man rotation, “there’s maybe a potential cost of getting guys out of their rhythm” given that Los Angeles also has an off-day on Thursday.

Dodgers Select Wander Suero, Option Gavin Stone

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The Dodgers announced they’ve selected reliever Wander Suero onto the major league roster. Rookie righty Gavin Stone was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move. Los Angeles already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no move was required in that regard.

Suero returns to the majors for the first time in two years. The Dominican-born righty was a middle innings option for the Nationals between 2018-21. He combined for a 4.61 ERA over 185 1/3 innings during that four-year stretch. Suero twice posted a sub-4.00 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers, with his overall results inflated by an uncharacteristic 6.33 mark in 42 2/3 innings during his final season in Washington.

Los Angeles added the 31-year-old on a non-roster deal over the winter. He’s spent the season in Oklahoma City, working 10 2/3 innings over 10 outings. Suero has kept opponents to two runs in that time, although he’s done so with a modest 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nevertheless, he’s impressed Dodger brass enough to earn a look in the major league bullpen. Suero still has a minor league option remaining, so the Dodgers can bounce him between L.A. and OKC throughout the season if they keep him on the 40-man roster.

Stone, 24, is one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. He was called up for his major league debut on Wednesday. That didn’t go particularly well, as the Phillies tagged him for five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks in four innings. One subpar outing surely doesn’t change how the Dodgers feel about the highly-touted righty, but it appears the club was always viewing that debut as a spot start. Stone will head back to Triple-A, where he has a 4.74 ERA over six starts, and await his next MLB opportunity.

Pitchers have to spend at least 15 days in the minors upon being optioned unless they’re recalled to replace a player landing on the injured list. The Dodgers will stick with a starting five of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard for the time being.

Rockies Claim Austin Wynns From Dodgers

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The Rockies have claimed catcher Austin Wynns from the Dodgers, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The backstop had been designated for assignment earlier this week. The Rockies had a couple of vacancies on their 40-man and won’t need to make a corresponding move in that respect, though Wynns is out of options and they will need to open an active roster spot for him whenever he reports to the team.

Wynns, 32, seems to be taking a tour of the National League West division. He began the year with the Giants on a minor league deal, getting selected to the big league club just over a week into the season. He was designated for assignment just a few days later and elected free agency, then signing with the Dodgers. He lasted about two weeks with the Dodgers while Will Smith was on the concussion-related injured list but was cut shortly after Smith returned.

He’s managed to get 14 plate appearances amid all of that, slashing just .154/.214/.231 but in an obviously small sample and unusual conditions. His career batting line of .229/.273/.334 is better but still amounts to a wRC+ of just 67. Despite that tepid offense, he’s shown some competent work on the other side of the ball. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give him above-average grades for his framing this year and did in 2022 as well.

The Rockies have Elias Díaz as their clear number one catcher, having signed him to a three-year extension that runs through 2024. He’s also off to a great start this year, hitting .337/.390/.500 so far. Brian Serven has been serving as the backup this year and part of last year as well, but he’s hit a paltry .197/.250/.317 in his first 226 big league plate appearances. His defensive numbers are strong but he has a full slate of options, perhaps allowing the club to send him down for regular at-bats in Triple-A while installing Wynns as the backup.

Dodgers Select Gavin Stone, Option Alex Vesia

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May 3: The Dodgers have formally selected Stone’s contract, per a team announcement. He brings their 40-man roster up to a count of 39 players. Lefty Alex Vesia was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City in order to open a spot on the active roster.

Vesia has been hit hard in 13 appearances this season, yielding a 7.84 ERA in 10 1/3 innings with a 25.4% strikeout rate that’s better than league-average but vastly worse than the 34% he posted in 2021-22. Vesia’s average fastball velocity has held steady at 94.2 mph, but he’s giving up more hard contact than he ever has with the Dodgers; after yielding an 87.2 mph average exit velocity and 34.6% hard-hit rate in 2021-22, he’s at 91 mph and 44.7% so far in the young 2023 season.

April 30: According to MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, the Dodgers are planning on selecting the contract of right-hander Gavin Stone to start Wednesday’s game against the Phillies. Stone is not currently on the 40-man roster, and so a corresponding move will be required to clear space for the youngster.

Stone, 24, is ranked 49th on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list, 60th over at Fangraphs, and 51st at Baseball America. A fifth round pick from the 2020 draft by the Dodgers, Stone broke out in a big way last season with a 1.48 ERA in 121 2/3 innings of work that saw him strike out 33.8% of batters faced alongside a solid 8.9% walk rate.

That performance saw Stone get promoted twice, with just 25 innings at High-A before moving to the upper minors. After a 23 1/3 inning stint at Triple-A to close out the 2022 season, Stone impressed in spring training with 14 strikeouts in just 6 2/3 innings, but struggled to open the 2023 season when he returned to Triple-A, allowing six runs while recording just eight outs in his season debut. He’s posted a 2.86 ERA in 22 innings since that blowup outing, however, showing more than enough talent to justify a start in the big leagues.

It’s not currently clear if Stone’s call to the majors will last beyond Wednesday’s start. The Dodgers currently sport a five man rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Noah Syndergaard. With no one in that group currently known to be injured, it’s possible that, should Stone stick in the rotation, LA opts to use a six-man rotation for awhile.

That being said, Syndergaard has struggled mightily to a 6.58 ERA over five starts to this point in the season. That ugly top-level run prevention number is supported by a 5.06 FIP, a well-below average 18.3% strikeout rate, and a groundball rate of just 37.2%. Given his struggles, it’s possible that Stone could replace Syndergaard in the rotation if the youngster excels and the 30-year-old right-hander continues to struggle.

In heading to the majors on Wednesday, Stone joins a youth movement in LA that has seen both infielder Miguel Vargas and outfielder James Outman in the lineup on a regular basis and Michael Grove take four starts to open the season before heading to the injured list with a groin strain. 24-year-old right-hander Ryan Pepiot was meant to break camp with the club as well, but suffered an oblique strain at the end of the spring that has sidelined him to this point in the season.

Even with Stone now poised to reach the big leagues, the Dodgers still have multiple top prospects who could make their major league debuts sometime this year, including right-hander Bobby Miller, outfielder Andy Pages, and catcher Diego Cartaya.

Dodgers Designate Austin Wynns For Assignment

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May 1: The Dodgers have now made this official, with Rojas recalled and Wynns designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

April 30: The Dodgers have designated catcher Austin Wynns for assignment, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (via Twitter).  Wynns was signed to a Major League contract a little over two weeks ago, as the Dodgers were looking to add some catching depth while Will Smith was on the concussion-related injured list.

With Smith now back in action, the Dodgers were in need of roster space, since Miguel Rojas will probably be activated from the 10-day injured list on Monday and prospect Gavin Stone is being called up (and added to the 40-man roster) in advance of a scheduled start on Wednesday.  That makes Wynns the odd man out, as Los Angeles will return to its usual catching tandem of Smith and Austin Barnes now that Smith has been fully cleared for catching duty.  Wynns ended up appearing in five games in his brief time on the Dodgers’ active roster, with a .523 OPS over 12 plate appearances.

The veteran backstop has already appeared for two different teams in under a month of the 2023 season, as Wynns’ minor league contract was selected by the Giants for a single game before he was DFA’ed earlier this month.  Since Wynns has been outrighted off a 40-man roster multiple times in his career, he had the opportunity to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment from San Francisco, and he indeed took the option of re-entering the open market.

Assuming Wynns clears waivers, he might again opt for free agency rather than remain in the Dodgers organization, considering that (when healthy) Smith and Barnes are a stable duo behind the plate.  If Wynns did accept an outright assignment, David Freitas and Patrick Mazeika are also on hand as MLB-experienced catching depth options at the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate, and Hunter Feduccia is also seeing action behind the plate. The fact that Los Angeles signed Wynns at the time of Smith’s injury could indicate their preference for a more seasoned catcher over their other Triple-A candidates, or Wynns might prefer to test the market again in search of a less-crowded depth chart.

Wynns has appeared in five MLB seasons, gaining most of his playing time in a part-time capacity with the Orioles in 2018 and 2021, and with the Giants last season.  Wynns has hit only .229/.273/.334 over 522 career plate appearances, but the 32-year-old has a good reputation for his defense and ability to handle pitchers.  With this in mind, it certainly seems possible that Wynns might catch on elsewhere, given how clubs are constantly on the lookout for help behind the plate.

Dodgers Likely To Activate Miguel Rojas On Monday

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As planned, Miguel Rojas played five innings with the Dodgers’ A-ball affiliate in Rancho Cucamonga yesterday, in what looks like it will be the only game of his rehab assignment.  Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that assuming Rojas came out of that game in good health, the shortstop will be activated from the 10-day injured list prior to Monday’s game with the Phillies.

A left hamstring strain sent Rojas to the IL on April 19, though the strain was one of several nagging lower-body issues that Rojas said had been bothering him since Opening Day.  With that in mind, this IL stint could be something of a reset to get Rojas both physically and mentally on track, considering his tough start to the season.  Over his first 35 plate appearances, Rojas had hit only .125/.200/.156, resulting in a rare negative OPS+ total of -2.

Rojas’ struggles carried a greater import considering that he went into the year as the Dodgers’ de facto everyday shortstop, due to the torn ACL that prematurely ended Gavin Lux’s season in Spring Training.  Los Angeles acquired Rojas in an offseason trade with the Marlins to add some veteran depth behind Lux, though the Dodgers didn’t expect Rojas to be taking on a regular role in such sudden fashion.

Unsurprisingly, Roberts said that Rojas wouldn’t be resuming everyday shortstop duties when he does return, and L.A. will continue to give Chris Taylor and Mookie Betts time at the position.  Taylor has also been ice-cold at the plate and even Betts is batting well below his usual superstar standard, but for now, the Dodgers don’t have a lot of options at shortstop.  While Rojas wasn’t known for his bat during his time in Miami, even getting close to league-average offense (like the 96 wRC+ Rojas posted in 2021) would help the Dodgers in getting their lineup at least somewhat closer to its usual alignment.

Dodgers Place J.D. Martinez On Injured List, Activate Will Smith

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The Dodgers announced a handful of roster moves before tonight’s series opener with St. Louis. Will Smith has been reinstated from the concussion injured list, while Max Muncy and Brusdar Graterol are each back from paternity leave. In corresponding active roster moves, J.D. Martinez was placed on the 10-day IL while Luke Williams and Justin Bruihl were optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Smith missed a little under two weeks after sustaining a concussion on a series of foul tips off the mask. The Dodgers were originally planning to stretch his IL stay into this weekend but Martinez’s injury accelerated his return by a day or two. Smith won’t immediately hop back behind the dish; he’s in tonight’s lineup as the designated hitter in Martinez’s stead.

The Dodgers will stick with three catchers on the active roster for the time being. Smith’s injury led L.A. to sign Austin Wynns to a major league contract to back up Austin Barnes. Wynns can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, so the Dodgers would have to keep three catchers on the active roster if they don’t want to risk losing him.

Martinez’s IL placement was backdated to April 25, ruling him out for at least a week. He’s been hampered by back soreness in recent days; the club announced the issue as lower back tightness. The offseason signee is off to a strong start to his Dodger tenure. Through 23 games, he carries a .250/.306/.534 line with four home runs over 98 plate appearances.

Meanwhile, the decision to option Williams means L.A. will keep rookie Michael Busch on the MLB roster for now. The Dodgers promoted the top hitting prospect once Muncy hit the paternity list earlier this week. There was some thought it could be a temporary promotion but Busch will get more than the three games he’s logged so far. The North Carolina product has started his MLB career 1-11.

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