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Dodgers Acquire Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly From White Sox

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The White Sox have already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Angels and are now sending out even more pitching. They are sending righties Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, the teams announced. Lynn had a 10-team no-trade clause, with the Dodgers on it, but waived it. The White Sox will receive pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, as well as outfielder Trayce Thompson.

Lynn, 36, has been an effective major league starter for over a decade now, debuting back in 2011. It has been a strange season for him here in 2023, however. Through 21 starts, many of his peripherals are in line with his career marks or even better. He’s striking out 26.9% of opponents on the year, a few ticks north of his 24% career rate. His 8.4% walk rate is only slightly worse than his career 8.2% clip, while this year’s 38.1% ground ball rate is just a bit off his 42.9% career rate.

But despite all of that, he has a 6.47 earned run average, almost three full runs above his 3.71 career mark. This seems to be due to a few factors. For one thing, he’s allowed a .328 batting average on balls in play that’s well beyond the .300 mark he’s allowed in his career and the .295 league average in the majors this year. His 61.6% strand rate this year is well below his career mark of 74.6% and the 71.8% league average this year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already allowed 28 home runs, more than any other season of his career even though there’s still a couple of months left.

20.6% of the fly balls Lynn has allowed have gone over the fence. That’s a mark that is very unlikely to be maintained going forward. Last year, the qualified pitcher with the highest rate in that department was Germán Márquez of the Rockies, who pitches half his games at Coors Field, at 16.9%. Lynn’s rate of 20.6% this year is the highest in the majors among qualified hurlers, with more than two percentage points separating him from Shohei Ohtani’s 18.4% rate, the second-highest in that department.

Lynn’s hard hit rate is listed at 40.7% this year at Statcast, a slight bump from last year’s 38.7% rate, but it still seems fair to expect some regression towards the mean here. ERA estimators all like him better than his actual ERA, with Lynn having a 5.22 FIP, 4.82 xERA and 3.92 SIERA this year. It seems the Dodgers are banking on the fact that Lynn has actually been closer to his previous career form than a quick glance at his surface-level stats would indicate.

There are some similarities in the case of Kelly, who previously pitched for the Dodgers from 2019 to 2021. In 31 appearances this year, he’s striking out 32% of opponents while walking 9.4% and getting grounders at a 56.2% clip. All three of those figures are better than league average for a reliever, yet he has a 4.97 ERA. It’s possible that his .329 BABIP and 58.7% strand rate are pushing more runs across the board, as he has a 3.25 FIP, 3.23 xERA and 2.97 SIERA.

It seems that plenty of clubs were willing to look past the ERAs of these two pitchers, banking on their previous track records and under-the-hood numbers. In recent days, Lynn has received interest from the Rangers, Rays and Dodgers, while Kelly also received interest from the Rangers and Dodgers.

The White Sox are having a dismal season, currently sporting a record of 41-63 despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations. It was reported a few weeks back that they were willing to consider trade offers on anyone except for controllable core pieces Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Rental pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López were flipped to the Angels earlier this week.

Lynn and Kelly were both also logical trade pieces since they are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts, though both also have 2024 options. Lynn is making $18.5MM this year, with about $6.48MM left to be paid out. His deal also contains an $18MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is making $9MM this year, with about $3.15MM left to be paid, then has a $9.5MM club option with $1MM buyout.

The Dodgers have plenty of need for pitching, having suffered through a litany of injuries this year. Starters Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot are on the injured list, with Noah Syndergaard having been there as well until he got traded to the Guardians. That’s forced the club to turn to rookies like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove, alongside Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. Whenever Lynn reports to the Dodgers, he’ll likely bump one of those rookies back down to Triple-A. Further pitching additions could do the same, as could the return of Kershaw later in the season.

The Dodgers also have relievers Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Cyr and Jimmy Nelson all on the 60-day IL. Adding an experienced veteran like Kelly will increase the depth for the stretch run. Each of Lynn and Kelly could also be retained for next year if the Dodgers so wish, which will likely depend on how they perform over the next few months.

Turning to the players going to Chicago, the headliner is Nastrini. A fourth-round pick of the Dodgers from 2021, he’s already climbed to Double-A. The 23-year-old has made 17 starts at that level this year with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 26.1% of opponents but with an 11.3% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system while FanGraphs currently has him at #6.

Leasure, 24, was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been working exclusively in relief as a professional. He’s pitched 35 innings out of the bullpen in Double-A this year with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 39.7% of opponents but walking 11.3%.

Thompson, 32, is an immediate big league option for the Sox, or he will be once he returns from the injured list. He was drafted by the White Sox back in 2009 and made his major league debut for them in 2015. He quickly went into journeyman status, bouncing to the Dodgers, back to the White Sox, the Athletics, the Cubs, Padres and back to the Dodgers again, generally struggling in most of those opportunities.

He seemed to finally have his long-awaited breakout last year, with the Dodgers calling him up midseason and putting him into 80 games. He hit .256/.353/.507 in those for a wRC+ of 142 while providing above-average outfield defense, slotting into all three slots on the grass. Unfortunately, he struggled to keep it going into this year, hitting .155/.310/.366 before landing on the IL in early June due to a left oblique strain.

Thompson began a rehab assignment a week ago so should be able to join the White Sox in the near future. He’s making $1.45M this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one. The Sox have a regular outfield mix of Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Oscar Colas, with Jimenez serving as the designated hitter most of the time. Thompson could potentially spell anyone in that group while serving as a reserve outfielder alongside Gavin Sheets.

Despite plenty of injuries, the Dodgers are 58-43 and have a three-game lead in the National League West. They’ve already brought in some complementary pieces like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez, now bolstering their pitching staff with a couple of new additions. The Sox have continued adding young talent as they look to salvage some future value from a disappointing season. With four days until the deadline, both clubs likely still have more moves to make.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the two sides were deep in talks, with the Dodgers optimistic about getting both Lynn and Kelly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported an agreement was close. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed that Lynn was willing to waive his no-trade clause. Nightengale first had the Lynn part of the deal being done. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the Dodgers finalizing the deal for both pitchers. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the full trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Designate Justin Bruihl, Eddys Leonard For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they have designated left-hander Justin Bruihl and infielder Eddys Leonard for assignment. Those two moves open up 40-man roster spots for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, who have now been officially acquired from the White Sox.

Bruihl, 26, was added to the Dodgers’ roster in August of 2021. He finished out that year in the club’s bullpen and has served as a frequently-optioned depth arm in the two campaigns since then. He’s made 65 major league appearances in that time with a 3.65 earned run average. His 15.6% strikeout rate is well below league average, but his 7.6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate are both solid. It’s possible he’s had some luck, as his .263 batting average on balls in play is on the low side, leading to a 4.48 FIP and 4.61 SIERA.

Leonard, 22, was added to the club’s roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. He hit .296/.390/.539 in the lower levels that year for a wRC+ of 145, but his results have tailed off since then. Last year’s line of .264/.348/.435 was still above average, but his wRC+ dropped to 119. This year’s been even worse, as he’s hitting .254/.327/.411 in Double-A for a 96 wRC+.

The Dodgers will now have a week to explore options with both players, either trading them or passing them through waivers, though the former option has a tighter timeline since the deadline is now just four days away. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand, and Bruihl still has a couple of option years, including this one. He also has just over a year of service time, allowing him to potentially serve as bullpen depth for another club for the foreseeable future. Leonard is having a difficult year but is still considered the club’s #28 prospect at Baseball America. He will also still have one option remaining after this one.

Dodgers Have Discussed Nolan Arenado Trade With Cardinals

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The Dodgers have engaged the Cardinals in trade talks for Nolan Arenado, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but Castillo reports that Arenado, a Southern California native, is willing to waive that right only if it means going to the Dodgers. It’s unclear if those talks made any progress or if a deal is close but the Cardinals are under no obligation to move Arenado, since he has four more years on his contract and they plan on contending again next year, but the Dodgers do have young pitching that they need. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays word from Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, who says that the report Arenado is only willing to waive his no-trade for the Dodgers is “inaccurate.”

It’s hardly surprising that the Dodgers would be interested in Arenado, who has been one of the game’s premier players for quite some time. He’s launched 321 home runs in his career and has produced a batting line of .288/.345/.534 for a wRC+ of 122, dating back to his 2013 debut. He’s done that while providing elite defense at the hot corner, having racked up 151 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, as well as 90 Outs Above Average and a 73.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. He already has a career tally of 48.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 54.1 from Baseball Reference.

The Cardinals are having a disappointing season, having fallen to 46-57 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted a couple of weeks ago that the club would have to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 club. However, he also maintained that moving a key player like Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t in their plans. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said, before leaving the door open to an offer that could change his mind. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.”

To be clear, the Dodgers having interest in Arenado doesn’t mean the Cards are under any obligation to make a deal. As Mozeliak mentioned, they are willing to listen on anything. All indications have pointed to the Cardinals planning on moving short-term pieces and reloading for 2024 around a similar position player core but with a retooled pitching staff. Perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent to make a deal happen, but that’s still not clear at this point.

The Dodgers are 58-43, holding a three-game lead in the West and are clearly in buyer position. They’ve already added a couple of complementary pieces in Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario but a big push for Arenado would obviously be a move in a different stratosphere.

The club has used players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at third base for much of this year, though both players are also capable of playing other positions and Castillo reports it’s possible that one or both of them could end up going to St. Louis in the potential deal. Muncy has long been a three-true-outcomes leader, hitting plenty of home runs while frequently walking and striking out. He’s continuing that this year, hitting 25 home runs while slashing .197/.329/.478 for a wRC+ of 118. However, he’s more of a bat-first option at third, having produced subpar defensive grades this year. The Dodgers hold a club option for his services in 2024 set at $10MM with no buyout.

Taylor spent many years as an above-average hitter who could play just about anywhere on the diamond. He reached free agency after 2021 and re-signed with the Dodgers on a four-year, $60MM contract but has seen his offensive performance slip. He hit .265/.343/.461 from 2017 to 2021 but just .219/.297/.399 since the start of last year. Despite the diminished production, he’s still been able to slot into every position except for first base and the battery. He still has two years and $26MM remaining on his deal after this year.

Arenado would undoubtedly be an upgrade over either of those two players, though the Dodgers would have to part with something to make it happen. The Cardinals have long been known to be in need of long-term starting pitching since Adam Wainwright is set to retire while both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are impending free agents and likely to wind up traded in the coming days. Steven Matz is a question mark after getting bumped to the bullpen earlier in the year, only recently retaking a starting job. Depth options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Connor Thomas haven’t had great years either, leaving Miles Mikolas as the sole building block in next year’s rotation.

Young and controllable pitching is the something the Dodgers could offer, even some with some major league experience. Multiple injuries to their starting staff this year have forced them up push prospects up to the majors, including Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove. That group would have also included Ryan Pepiot, though he suffered an oblique strain on the verge of Opening Day and has been on the injured list since, only beginning a rehab assignment this month.

Miller, 24, has a 4.28 ERA through 10 starts, striking out 23.2% of hitters while walking 7% and getting grounders at a 45.5% clip. Sheehan, 23, has a 6.75 ERA through his six outings while Grove, 26, is at 6.19 this year. Each of those three and Pepiot were generally considered among the club’s 30 best prospects coming into the season and they all come with years of cheap control. Castillo’s report suggests the Cardinals have interest in all four.  Moving them would leave the Dodgers with diminished pitching depth, but perhaps they could patch that over by acquiring veteran rentals for the stretch run, with Clayton Kershaw potentially returning at some point later in the year. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in rental starter Lucas Giolito prior to him being traded to the Angels yesterday, and Castillo’s report speculates they could be interested in getting Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals as well.

The Cardinals surely have some level of interest in each of those, given their dire need for pitching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re willing to move on from Arenado in order to acquire them. The two sides have long seen committed to each other, with Arenado even forgoing an opt-out opportunity at the end of last season. He likely could have topped the five years and $144MM remaining on his deal but decided to stay in St. Louis instead. He will still have four more years and $109MM left on that deal at the end of this year.

That would be a hefty salary for the Dodgers to take on as they are already over the competitive balance tax and will likely be trying to sign Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking deal this winter, like many other teams. Perhaps they could balance some of that out by including Muncy or Taylor in the deal, though that would depend how much the Cardinals value those veteran players compared to the younger starters.

Arenado departing St. Louis would leave a hole at third base in St. Louis going forward, though Muncy or Taylor could theoretically help fill that. Leaving those two aside, the Cardinals have many multi-positional players like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who have each played some third this year. Tommy Edman hasn’t played there this year but has in the past. He might be needed at shortstop if Paul DeJong winds up traded this week, though prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and could slot in there in the near future.

It’s worth reiterating that teams often discuss all kinds of trade scenarios and there’s been nothing to suggest anything is close to completion here. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat straight up denies that Arenado is being traded and, as mentioned up top, Arenado’s agent has denied the report about his no-trade clause. The Cardinals and Dodgers make sense as potential trade partners since one has short-term pitching but needs long-term, and the other the opposite. It would be natural for the Dodgers to at least ask about other players in those talks. Mozeliak has said in the past that the Cardinals, despite doing some selling, weren’t looking to move key players like Arenado. He did say they are willing to listen on anything, so perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching to make them think about it, but time will tell.

Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers are among the clubs to express interest in White Sox reliever Joe Kelly, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Unsurprisingly, Murray notes that multiple teams are in the market for the hard-throwing righty.

Kelly is one of the likeliest players to change teams within the next five-plus days. The Sox are a clear seller and will move a few impending free agents by August 1. Kelly isn’t technically a rental, as the Sox hold a $9.5MM option on his services. They’re trending towards a $1MM buyout, though, so a trade to recoup some future value seems almost inevitable.

At first glance, the 35-year-old might not seem an especially appealing trade candidate. He’s sitting on a 4.66 ERA over 30 appearances and has allowed 5.45 earned runs per nine over parts of two seasons in Chicago. There’s a fair bit of intrigue in this year’s underlying marks, though.

Kelly has struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters, while he’s inducing grounders on a massive 56.2% of batted balls. An abnormally low 57.9% left on base rate has propped up his earned run totals, but few pitchers match that combination of punchouts and grounders. While his control has been erratic throughout his career, this season’s 9.4% walk percentage is manageable. An injured list stint earlier in the month for elbow inflammation temporarily threatened his trade candidacy but he was reinstated over the weekend.

As a likely impending free agent reliever, Kelly isn’t going to bring back a franchise-altering return. Yet the Sox shouldn’t have trouble finding a trade partner, offloading some of the $9MM he’s making (around $3.24MM of which is yet to be paid out, not including the option buyout) while bringing back controllable talent.

Kelly is no stranger to the Dodgers, of course. He pitched with L.A. from 2019-21, winning the World Series in the second of those years. The 12-year veteran posted a 3.59 ERA over 105 1/3 regular season innings in Dodger blue and appeared in all three of their postseason runs during that stretch.

The Dodger bullpen ranks 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA entering play Wednesday. They’re 11th in strikeout percentage (24.4%) and ground-ball rate (44.7%). Los Angeles is also known to be targeting starting pitching, and they’re one of the teams reportedly in talks with the Sox regarding right-handers Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito. There’s nothing to suggest L.A. is the perceived favorite on any of Kelly, Lynn or Giolito, but it stands to reason the clubs have had at least some dialogue about a potential package deal.

Dodgers, Guardians Swap Amed Rosario For Noah Syndergaard

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The Dodgers and Guardians swapped veterans at positions of need. Los Angeles announced they’ve traded starter Noah Syndergaard and cash considerations to Cleveland for infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario. It’s reportedly a cash-neutral transaction, indicating L.A. is sending roughly $1.9MM to cover the difference of what remains on the players’ respective $13MM and $7.8MM salaries.

Essentially, it’s a change of scenery trade between two clubs hoping to balance their rosters for the stretch run. Each of Rosario and Syndergaard will be free agents at season’s end. Neither player was a candidate to receive a qualifying offer — Syndergaard is ineligible for the QO having previously received one in his career, while Rosario simply wasn’t playing well enough.

Rosario’s time in Cleveland wraps up after two and a half seasons. Cleveland acquired the former top prospect from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster going into the 2021 campaign. Andrés Giménez has been the best part of that deal for Cleveland, but Rosario has capably held down shortstop for a couple seasons.

The right-handed hitter posted average offensive numbers in each of his first two seasons with the Guardians. He connected on 11 home runs in both years while hitting around .280, though meager walk totals kept his on-base percentage right around league average. Over the two-year stretch, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 line in over 1200 trips to the plate.

Rosario’s third season with the Guardians hasn’t been as productive. In 94 games, he’s hitting .265/.306/.369. That’s largely attributable to a frigid start, as he put up a .233/.280/.327 slash through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, he owns a much more impressive .301/.335/.415 line.

By and large, Rosario’s underlying marks align with his career trajectory. His 5.3% walk rate and 18.7% strikeout percentage are right in line with his career averages. His 42.1% hard contact rate and 88.6 MPH average exit velocity are at the higher end of his overall marks. Middling start aside, Rosario seems mostly the same offensive player he’s been throughout his time in Cleveland — a high-contact hitter with an aggressive approach and fringe power.

That hasn’t been the case on the other side of the ball. Rosario’s defensive ratings have cratered this year. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have rated him as the worst shortstop in the majors, pegging him somewhere between 12 and 15 runs below average. He has committed the sixth-most errors (11) at the position.

Public defensive metrics have generally pegged Rosario as a below-average defender throughout his career. This year’s marks are a personal-worst, though, and it seems likely the Dodgers will bounce him around the diamond. Rosario has brief experience in the outfield. He’s never played an infield position aside from shortstop, but the majority of shortstop-capable players can kick over to second or third base without issue.

As with Enrique Hernández, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Red Sox last night, Rosario adds a flexible right-handed bat to Dave Roberts’ roster. He has an excellent .304/.346/.475 slash in 463 plate appearances against left-handed pitching dating back to the start of 2021. The Dodgers have been clear about their desire to add some balance to a lineup in which incumbent righty-swinging middle infielders Miguel Rojas and Miguel Vargas have underperformed offensively.

Vargas’ struggles pushed him back to Triple-A. Rojas remains the favorite for shortstop playing time on the strength of his glove. Rosario offers a bat-first alternative at the position who could cut into the playing time for utility types like Chris Taylor and Yonny Hernández. Adding a couple righty-swinging infielders also enables the Dodgers to use Mookie Betts more frequently in the outfield than at second base against lefty pitching, further limiting David Peralta’s and James Outman’s exposure to same-handed arms.

Cleveland figures to turn shortstop over to one of a number of younger players in the upper levels of the organization. Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio are all fairly recent highly-regarded prospects who have reached the big leagues. Freeman, who is currently on the MLB roster, might be the first choice thanks to an excellent .329/.468/.482 showing in Triple-A. He’s a stellar contact hitter who has experience throughout the infield. He’s perhaps better suited for second base, but Giménez could kick across to the left side of the infield.

Arias is also currently on the big league club. He’s viewed as a plus defensive option at shortstop but hasn’t produced much offense in a multi-positional role. In 162 trips to the plate, the right-handed hitter owns a .179/.290/.300 line while striking out more than 32% of the time. Rocchio is in Triple-A, where he has a solid .295/.385/.419 slash over 83 games.

The Guardians are comfortable enough with that group of youngsters to relinquish Rosario in exchange for a buy-low roll of the dice on Syndergaard. The right-hander hasn’t managed to recapture his All-Star form since undergoing Tommy John surgery in advance of the 2020 season. He missed almost all of 2020-21, then returned with a fine but unexceptional 3.94 ERA in 25 appearances between the Angels and Phillies last year.

Los Angeles took a shot on a rebound in free agency. The Dodgers inked Syndergaard to a one-year, $13MM guarantee and installed him into the season-opening rotation. The move didn’t pan out, as he had a rather forgettable 12-start stint in Dodger blue. Through 55 1/3 innings, he posted a 7.16 ERA. A blister on his right index finger sent him to the injured list on June 8 and marked the end of his L.A. tenure.

Syndergaard began a minor league rehab stint two weeks ago. He’s made a couple Triple-A appearances, reaching 77 pitches in a start last Friday. It stands to reason he’ll be able to make a return to a big league rotation in the near future.

A few months ago, the notion of the Guardians trading for a short-term rotation upgrade would’ve seemed far-fetched. Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries, though, losing each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill to extended issues. That leaves Aaron Civale and the rookie trio of Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee starting games for now.

The Guardians become the latest team hoping to get Syndergaard back on track. He still boasts excellent control, walking fewer than 4% of opposing hitters. Yet the high-octane arsenal that earned him the ’Thor’ moniker at his peak has dwindled. Syndergaard’s fastball is averaging 92.6 MPH this season, nowhere near the upper-90s of his pre-surgery days. His cutter isn’t missing bats the way his slider once had. Syndergaard has punched out only 15.4% of opposing hitters, a career-low mark that’s more than six percentage points below league average for starters.

The Dodgers hold a 3 1/2 game lead over the Giants in the NL West. Cleveland sits two games behind the Twins in the AL Central. There are presumably more moves on the horizon for both, but they’ll each roll the dice on a veteran having a down year in hopes of getting a spark for the final couple months.

Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Dodgers were nearing a deal for Rosario. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed a Rosario trade was in place, pending medical reviews. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated reported the Guardians were receiving Syndergaard in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the Dodgers were including cash, which Zack Meisel of the Athletic specified made the deal a wash financially.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers

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11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.

Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.

With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.

9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.

Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.

While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.

That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.

The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.

At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.

Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.

That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.

Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.

Dodgers Acquire Enrique Hernandez

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Enrique Hernandez is back with the Dodgers. Los Angeles announced they’ve acquired the utilityman (along with cash considerations) from the Red Sox for relievers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman. Boston is reportedly paying down $2.5MM of the approximate $3.6MM remaining on Hernandez’s contract.

Hernandez, 31, is struggling through one of the worst seasons of his career, batting just .222/.279/.320 in 323 plate appearances. The offseason injury of Trevor Story — which required elbow surgery — prompted the Sox to move Hernandez from center field to shortstop. The results weren’t pretty, with Hernandez returning to a position he’d barely played since 2018 and posting some of the lowest defensive grades of any player at any position (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -13 Outs Above Average in just 484 innings).

The extent to which the defensive struggles also impacted Hernandez’s mindset at the plate can’t be known, but his production hasn’t dipped to this level since the 2016 season. He’s hitting .260 against left-handed pitching — albeit with a lowly .314 OBP and .338 slugging percentage — but has been a nonfactor against right-handed pitching (.209/.266/.314).

Struggles on both sides of the ball notwithstanding, Hernandez is a career .259/.346/.465 hitter against southpaws. The Dodgers will hope that a return to the team he called home for the majority of his career can bring about a turnaround at the plate and/or on the field. Los Angeles has hit well against lefties as a team, but that’s generally been in spite of poor production from a cast of outfielders that has looked lost against southpaws.

All of David Peralta, Trayce Thompson and Jason Heyward have struggled in that regard. James Outman is getting on base at a .366 pace against lefties but not hitting for power and striking out at a 34% clip. Chris Taylor has gotten on base at a lowly .268 rate but at least hits lefties for power.

There’s no guarantee that Hernandez will improve the team’s overall production against southpaws, but he’s a low-cost roll of the dice as a bench player who’s had success in just this type of limited role before — with this very team, no less. Given that the Dodgers have been cycling through journeyman like Yonny Hernandez and Jake Marisnick on the bench, there’s some sense to seeking lower-cost stability. Hernandez figures to be a boon in the clubhouse at the very least, and any big early hits following the swap will clearly be well-received by a fanbase with which he was popular during his last tenure. There’s minimal risk in displacing Hernandez, though the Dodger faithful will surely be hoping this trade is merely a footnote among a larger slate of deadline transactions rather than a focal point of the front office’s approach to upgrading the roster.

For the Red Sox, with Story nearing a return, they’ll subtract Hernandez from their glut of middle-infield and outfield options. Jarren Duran’s emergence in center field put a serious dent in Hernandez’s role with the team — particularly with Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo locked into the corners. Yu Chang is a more versatile infield defender, meanwhile, and the Sox apparently prefer to continue giving the more controllable Christian Arroyo opportunities over Hernandez — a pending free agent playing on a one-year, $10MM contract extension he signed last winter.

Per Roster Resource, the Dodgers had a $228MM payroll and $245MM luxury-tax bill prior to the trade. Tacking on roughly $1.1MM won’t put them anywhere near the third tier of luxury-tax penalization, which begins at $273MM and is the point at which teams see their top pick in the following year’s draft pushed back by 10 spots. As a third-time luxury tax offender in the midst of the first penalty bracket, the Dodgers would pay a 50% dollar-for-dollar tax on all overages. As such, Hernandez’s remaining $1.1MM actually amounts to about $1.65MM in terms of total expenditure.

In return for picking up the bulk of the tab, Boston lands a couple pitchers who add desired right-handed middle relief depth. Robertson, 25, is on the 40-man roster and has made nine big league appearances for Los Angeles this season. The rookie righty has allowed 10 runs (seven earned) over his first 10 1/3 frames. He’s fanned 13 against four walks, though, missing bats at a decent 11.4% clip. Robertson is a fastball-changeup pitcher who has averaged a little under 95 MPH on his heater in his brief MLB look.

He’s having an excellent year in Triple-A. Over 28 1/3 innings with the Dodgers’ top affiliate in Oklahoma City, the 6’6″ hurler owns a 2.54 ERA. Robertson has punched out an excellent 37.5% of batters faced at the top minor league level, where he’s also inducing grounders on half the batted balls he allows. The former seventh-round pick owns a 3.54 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate over parts of four minor league campaigns. He’ll start his Boston tenure on optional assignment to Triple-A Worcester but could be recalled to work out of the big league bullpen at any point.

Hagenman has never played in the majors. Like Robertson, he’s having a strong year in Triple-A. Through 55 innings spread over 25 appearances, the 26-year-old righty has a 2.78 ERA. He’s punching hitters out at a solid 27% clip while keeping his walks to a tidy 5% rate. The Penn State product went unselected in last year’s Rule 5 draft after posting a 6.08 ERA in Triple-A; he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 again next winter but has a good chance to earn a spot on the Sox’s 40-man roster before then after his much better second season at the top minor league level.

David Vassegh of SportsNet Los Angeles noted this afternoon the Sox and Dodgers were discussing Hernandez trades. Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers were acquiring Hernandez. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the Red Sox would receive two upper minors relief pitchers. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first suggested Robertson and Hagenman were potentially involved in the deal. Tom Caron of NESN confirmed Hagenman’s inclusion, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first confirmed the package was Robertson and Hagenman. Speier was first to report the cash considerations.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Shohei Ohtani Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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The biggest question of this year’s trade deadline is whether or not the Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani. Unsurprisingly, several rival clubs are interested in acquiring his services, with Jeff Passan of ESPN connecting him to the Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays. That’s in addition to reporting from yesterday connecting him to the Diamondbacks and Orioles.

The fact that several clubs are interested in Ohtani is hardly shocking, given that the superstar has played so well in recent years to make it a legitimate question as to whether he’s the greatest player of all time. He’s hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past three seasons, having already hit 36 this year for the league lead with still a few months to go. His overall batting line of .302/.398/.674 amounts to a wRC+ of 184, which also leads all major league hitters. In addition to that, he’s thrown 408 innings as a pitcher since the start of 2021 with a 2.98 ERA, including a 3.71 ERA in his 19 starts this year.

Given the unprecedented nature of his performance, it would be a shock if any contender weren’t interested in him, so it stands to reason that several of them are reportedly on the phone lines. Whether Ohtani can actually be pried loose from the Angels is an open question, however. Recent reporting has suggested that the club will be listening to offers but that a deal is still considered unlikely. Ohtani is an impending free agent but the Halos aren’t completely buried in the standings. Their 51-49 record has them 4.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot, but with the Yankees and Red Sox in between. FanGraphs pegs their playoff odds at 13.7% while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 13.2%.

Rival clubs will only be able to acquire a few months of Ohtani’s services, but the offers will likely still be robust. Since a player like Ohtani has never previously existed, it’s hard to know exactly how much clubs would be willing to relinquish in order to acquire him. But since he’s the most impactful individual player that any club could conceivably add, it’s possible the bidding goes to unexpected levels. Beyond his on-field talents, there would also be opportunities for increased ratings and merchandise sales, not to mention the ability to try to negotiate an extension with the two-way player. It seems highly unlikely he would forego the open market at this point, but the opportunity to start the conversation early surely has appeal.

The Rangers make a ton of sense for Ohtani, in that their rotation has lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries. They also don’t have an everyday designated hitter and could easily accommodate Ohtani in their lineup. They are currently leading the American League West but the Astros are just two games back and Ohtani could go a long way to helping them fend off Houston. However, since they are in the same division as the Angels, lining up on a trade could be difficult. The Halos may not want to watch Ohtani thrive with their rivals, while the Rangers may have some hesitation about looking across the dugout at their former prospects for the next decade or so.

The Dodgers also make plenty of sense from a roster perspective. They currently have five starters on the injured list, including Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot. That’s forced them to bring up rookies like Bobby Miller, Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan. The DH slot is usually taken by J.D. Martinez but he can at least play the outfield from time to time, a problem the club would likely be happy to work around. But the Angels may not prefer to send Ohtani across Los Angeles, given the public relations aspect. They and the Dodgers don’t compete in the same division, but they compete for customers and attention in the area, with the Angels usually the second fiddle to the Dodgers. Sending Ohtani to succeed in Dodger blue might be a bitter pill that they’d prefer not to swallow.

The other three clubs also make plenty of sense, given their tight American League East rivalry. The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays currently occupy the top three spots in the division, separated by just 6.5 games. The Orioles have a 62-38 record but their rotation is clearly the weakest spot. Their starters have a collective 4.51 ERA that puts them in the bottom half of the league. They don’t have a clear DH either, often rotating various players through that spot.

The Rays actually have the strongest rotation ERA in the league, though that number may be skewed by their frequent use of openers. They certainly have a solid foursome in Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley, but have lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to season-ending surgeries while Josh Fleming seems likely to miss significant time as well. Given their fondness for versatile players, they could easily slot Ohtani into the DH role and move other players around as necessary.

The Jays have some rotation question marks, particularly in the case of Alek Manoah. He struggled badly enough in the beginning on the season to get optioned down to the club’s Florida Complex. He’s since returned and made three starts without much consistency. Hyun Jin Ryu is on a rehab assignment and could be back with the club shortly, rejoining Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays use Brandon Belt as designated hitter most of the time but likely wouldn’t mind replacing him with Ohtani and figuring out a solution to that problem. The bigger issue might be their relatively weaker farm system compared to the other clubs listed here, as Passan lists them as a longer shot for that exact reason.

All in all, it’s still unknown how seriously the Angels are entertaining any offers coming their way. It’s important for them to do their due diligence so that they have all the information necessary to make the decision that is best for their organization, but that doesn’t obligate them to make a deal. The club starts a road trip tonight with three in Detroit, three in Toronto and then the first game of a series in Atlanta before the August 1 deadline. It’s possible that the results of those games will push the club in one direction or another, for the most significant decision of this trade deadline and arguably ever.

Dodgers Sign Ryan Sherriff To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have signed left-hander Ryan Sherriff to a minor league deal, as revealed by the pitcher himself via social media.  Sherriff announced he was heading to Los Angeles with a tweet, and he updated both his Twitter and Instagram pages with Dodgers tags. Alex Freedman of the Oklahoma City Dodgers announced the deal today.

The southpaw inked another minors contract with the Red Sox during the offseason, which resulted in five appearances and 6 2/3 innings for Sherriff at the big league level.  Boston designated Sherriff for assignment earlier this month and he elected to forego an outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency — Sherriff had that right because he has previously been outrighted off a 40-man roster earlier in his career.

The five games with the Red Sox marked Sherriff’s first Major League action since 2021, as he spent last year pitching in the Phillies’ minor league system and on the injured list due to a shoulder strain.  Since making his MLB debut in 2017 with the Cardinals, Sherriff has only 49 appearances and 51 total innings over parts of five seasons, as injuries (most prominently a Tommy John surgery) have repeatedly stalled his career.

When Sherriff has pitched, the results have been decent, as he has a career 3.53 ERA and 52.6% grounder rate over his 51 innings in the Show.  His 18.5% strikeout rate isn’t noteworthy, but Sherriff’s ability to keep the ball both on the ground and in the ballpark altogether (only three homers allowed to MLB hitters) makes him a useful relief asset.  However, the three-batter rule is an obstacle to a manager’s ability to shield Sherriff from his drastic splits, as right-handed batters have a hefty .891 OPS against him over 132 career plate appearances.  Conversely, Sherriff has shut down left-handed hitters to the tune of a .382 OPS.

At the cost of just a minor league contract, there isn’t any risk to the Dodgers in taking a look at the 33-year-old Sherriff to see if he can contribute to their big league bullpen.  Los Angeles has been hit with a number of injuries to both relievers and starters this season, and pitching figures to be a priority for the team heading into the trade deadline.  Adding a big-name arm or two is certainly possible, but the Dodgers have had enough past success in finding hidden pitching gems that taking a flier on Sherriff might prove quite valuable.

Dodgers, Red Sox Discussing Enrique Hernandez Deal

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The Dodgers and Red Sox are discussing a potential trade that would send veteran utilityman Enrique Hernandez back to Los Angeles, where he spent the 2015-20 seasons, David Vassegh of SportsNet Los Angeles reports. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reported over the weekend that L.A. had interest in a reunion with Hernandez, provided he was amenable to shifting into a more limited role than the everyday one he’s held down in Boston. Further fueling intrigue, Red Sox manager Alex Cora tells the Sox beat that the team is working on a roster move that’s holding up the reveal of today’s lineup (Twitter link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

It’s been a dismal season for the 31-year-old Hernandez, who lost his handle on the everyday shortstop job in Boston thanks to glaring defensive ratings and a similarly alarming .222/.279/.320 batting line in 323 plate appearances. He’s earning $10MM this season after signing an extension with the Sox last summer.

For all of this year’s struggles, Hernandez carries a long track record of quality production against southpaws. He’s hitting an empty .260 against them this year (.260/.314/.338) but is a lifetime .259/.346/.465 batter when holding the platoon advantage. He’s also a plus defender in center field and a solid glove at second base; Hernandez simply seemed miscast as a regular shortstop but was thrust into that role when Trevor Story required offseason elbow surgery.

The Dodgers are hitting .227/.322/.450 as a team against left-handed pitching, resulting in a 1o9 wRC+ that ranks tenth in the Majors. However, their outfield has been pedestrian, at best, against southpaws. David Peralta and Jason Heyward — the latter of whom has just 15 plate appearances against southpaws this season — have continued their long-running platoon struggles. Trayce Thompson’s right-handed bat hasn’t held up against left-handed pitching (.143/.321/.286) and he’s been on the shelf since June. Recently signed righty hitter Jake Marisnick just hit the IL after only a handful of plate appearances. Chris Taylor is hitting for power against lefties but reaching base at just a .268 clip. James Outman has been the opposite, reaching at a .366 clip but hitting for virtually no power (.366 slugging, .085 ISO) and striking out at a 34% clip.

Hernandez would add a potentially valuable right-handed hitting bat who could fill a familiar role, splitting time around the outfield, at second base and perhaps at designated hitter.

As for the Red Sox, Hernandez could be squeezed out by his struggles at shortstop, his downturn in production at the plate and a glut of outfield and middle-infield options. Story is likely to return from the injured list before long and is currently on a rehab assignment. Yu Chang is a steadier defender at shortstop than Hernandez and figures to move around the infield once Story returns. Boston has also begun giving Justin Turner some time (27 innings) at second base. The Sox ostensibly remain committed to Christian Arroyo despite a generally middling track record. In the outfield, Mastaka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo are the starters, leaving Hernandez without a regular role.

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