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Dodgers, Cubs, Angels Among Clubs Interested In Robert Stephenson

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Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson is proving to be quite popular this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. He is drawing interest from the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels, but other unnamed clubs as well.

Stephenson, 31 in February, was one of the lesser known names on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents published earlier this month, where Stephenson was pegged for a four-year, $36MM deal. The righty had struggled with injuries and underperformance at various times in his career but had a well-timed breakout just before he hit the open market.

He was traded from the Pirates to the Rays in early June and then started throwing a cutter instead of a slider, with phenomenal results. He went on to make 42 appearances after heading to Tampa, posting an earned run average of just 2.35 in 38 1/3 innings. He struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in that time, that strikeout rate was fourth in the majors, trailing only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks. Stephenson had a lower walk rate than all three of those guys, making his 37.1% K-BB% ratio tops in the majors in that time frame.

That’s a fairly small sample of work, but Stephenson once had a strong prospect pedigree. He was a first-round pick of the Reds back in 2011 and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight years from 2013 to 2016, getting as high as #19 in 2014. He reached the majors as a starter and posted fairly lackluster results, with an ERA of 5.47 at the end of 2018, having thrown 133 1/3 major league innings in that time.

A move to the bullpen seemed to help, as he made 57 appearances in 2019 with an ERA of 3.76. But in 2020, he missed roughly a month due to a mid-back strain and allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings he was able to pitch in the shortened season. He was traded to the Rockies prior to 2021 and managed to get back on track, despite making Coors Field his home, posting a 3.13 ERA in 49 appearances that year. But 2022 saw him struggle with a 6.04 ERA in 45 appearances for the Rockies before getting claimed off waivers by the Pirates in August.

The most recent season got off to a slow start, as he had some right arm discomfort in the spring and started the season on the injured list. He eventually made 18 appearances for the Pirates this year but showed some rust, walking 13.1% of opponents and allowing 5.14 earned runs per nine. But as mentioned, a midseason trade to the Rays preceded a tremendous step forward.

Now Stephenson seems positioned to cash in. Though his big breakout was just a few months of work, he was one of the best relievers in the league for that time. It didn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had once been a highly-touted youngster and had a couple of seasons of decent relief work recently. Teams have made huge gambles on relievers based on small samples before, with Drew Pomeranz getting four years and $34MM, Robert Suarez five years and $46MM, while Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM. All three of those guys had fairly limited or inconsistent track records but some flashy underlying numbers that the signing club was betting on.

It would take a change in strategy for the Cubs to be seriously in on Stephenson. Since Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of baseball operations, they have stuck to one-year deals for relievers, signing guys like Mychal Givens, Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, Brad Boxberger, Chris Martin, Ryan Tepera and others with mixed results. None of those guys got more than $5MM and getting Stephenson will surely take more than that on an annual basis and for multiple years. But the Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time and may be willing to push a little farther after just missing the playoffs in 2023. The club’s relievers had a collective ERA of 3.85 in 2013, which placed them 13th in the league.

The Dodgers’ bullpen had a 3.42 ERA in 2023, which was third-best in the league, and most of their key relievers are still under club control for 2024. Adding another high-octane arm there would seemingly be more of a luxury buy than a necessity, especially when they have needs in the rotation and could potentially give a massive contract to Shohei Ohtani. But per Roster Resource, they are roughly $80MM below the competitive balance tax and well below previous franchise highs, so maybe they have enough powder dry to address everything on their to-do list and go after Stephenson.

The Angels have often struggled to put together a decent bullpen and that was again the case in 2023, with a collective ERA of 4.88 that was better than just five clubs. They tried to spend some money to address that issue a few years ago by signing Raisel Iglesias to a four-year deal but he was flipped to Atlanta after just a year and a half. The club has been struggling to get above .500 in recent years but has no plans of rebuilding this winter, even if Ohtani winds up going elsewhere.

Details On The Dodgers’ And Braves’ Pursuits Of Aaron Nola

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Aaron Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM.  Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.

The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.”  It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.

As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more.  Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.

Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market.  MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract.  He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal.  “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued.  The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened.  The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.

The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning.  Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year.  The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.

Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market.  Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value).  Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.

While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office.  Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.

Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades.  This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history.  The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.

One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.  This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease

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The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.

While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs.  Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.

Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization.  MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons.  Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.

Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings.  A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season.  Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation.  Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers.  Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.

Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation.  However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching.  Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now.  Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/23

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Tonight marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration. This evening should also see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.

Latest Moves

  • The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
  • Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
  • Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
  • Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
  • The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
  • Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
  • The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
  • The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Earlier Tonight

  • The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
  • The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
  • The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.

Dodgers Sign Eduardo Salazar To Minors Deal

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The Dodgers have signed Eduardo Salazar to a minor league contract, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  The Reds outrighted Salazar off their 40-man roster back in August, and he elected minor league free agency after the season.

A member of the Cincinnati organization since 2017, Salazar is now changing teams for the first time in his professional career.  His stint with the Reds saw Salazar post a 4.38 ERA over 468 1/3 minor league innings, which includes a rough 9.09 ERA over 32 2/3 career frames at the Triple-A level.

However, 2023 saw Salazar pitch well at Double-A and then over his first few career Triple-A outings, which earned him his first look at the Major League level.  The righty ended up posting an 8.03 ERA in 12 1/3 relief innings for the Reds, with an even number of walks and strikeouts (five apiece) over his eight appearances.  Salazar’s production started to go south in Triple-A after his struggles in the big leagues, leading Cincinnati to make that outright assignment.

The 25-year-old Salazar had worked mostly as a starter before becoming a full-time reliever in 2023, though his low-strikeout, grounder-heavy approach doesn’t fit the preferred model for bullpen work.  Nonetheless, there’s no risk for the Dodgers in bringing Salazar aboard on a minors contract to see if he can unlock any new level of performance.  At worst, Salazar is a long relief option at Triple-A, and perhaps even in the majors if L.A. needs a fresh arm on short notice.

Ronald Acuña Jr. Wins NL MVP

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For the first time in his career, Ronald Acuña Jr. is an MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that Acuña was unanimously selected as the National League’s top player. Dodger teammates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman finished second and third, respectively.

Acuña has been a star for years. The sport’s #1 prospect before he reached the majors in 2018, he won Rookie of the Year and finished 12th in MVP voting during his debut campaign. He got onto MVP ballots in each of the next two seasons and has been named to the All-Star Game in every season since his rookie year (excluding the 2020 campaign in which there was no Midsummer Classic).

In 2023, he firmly cemented himself as one of the top three to five players in the game. Acuña turned in an unbelievable .337/.416/.596 batting line over an NL-high 735 trips to the dish. He led the majors in hits and runs scored from the top of a loaded Atlanta lineup and paced the Senior Circuit in OPS. The Venezuela native tied his career high with 41 home runs and stole a major league leading 73 bases.

That power-speed impact was unparalleled in baseball history. Acuña became the first player ever to go 40-70. One could quibble with his NL-leading 14 times caught stealing or middling defensive grades in right field, but the sheer offensive dominance and unprecedented nature of Acuña’s stat line made him the clear choice in the eyes of voters.

While this was his career season to date, Acuña could be a perennial MVP candidate He won’t turn 26 until December and is squarely in the midst of his prime. Only adding to the appeal for the Braves is that they have their superstar outfielder on perhaps the game’s most team-friendly contract. Acuña is signed for a total of $61MM over the next three years, while the team has options that could (and very likely will) keep him in Atlanta through 2028.

Acuña winning the award was expected. That he received all 30 first-place votes is a bit more surprising. Betts ranked second on every ballot, hammering home how clearly that duo had separated themselves from the pack. The Dodger star hit .307/.408/.579 over 693 plate appearances. He played solid defense in right field and handled the middle infield with aplomb, logging action at second base and shortstop.

Freeman and Matt Olson were third and fourth on every ballot, with Freeman picking up four more third-place nods to secure the #3 spot overall. Corbin Carroll, Juan Soto, Austin Riley, Luis Arraez, Cody Bellinger, William Contreras and Blake Snell all received at least one fifth-place vote. Others receiving votes: Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Ozzie Albies, Logan Webb, Pete Alonso, Marcell Ozuna, Devin Williams, Dansby Swanson, Kyle Schwarber, Zac Gallen, Christian Walker, TJ Friedl and Nick Castellanos.

As noted by Sarah Langs of MLB.com (on X), this is the first time in MLB history in which both MVP selections were unanimous. Shohei Ohtani took all 30 first-place nods in the American League. Full voting results are available courtesy of the BBWAA.

Image from USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Re-Sign Ricky Vanasco To Major League Deal

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2:18 pm: Vanasco will make a salary of $900K in 2024, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group.

11:43 am: The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve re-signed right-hander Ricky Vanasco to a one-year, major league contract. He’d previously been outrighted and elected minor league free agency, but he’ll now return to the organization and secure a spot on the 40-man roster for the winter. Los Angeles now has 39 players on its 40-man roster.

The 25-year-old Vanasco has spent the vast majority of his career in the Rangers organization, but the Dodgers acquired him on June 1 after Texas had designated the former 15th-round pick for assignment. Once regarded as one of the more promising pitchers in the Rangers system, his career has been slowed by repeated health troubles. Vanasco posted an outstanding 1.81 ERA in 11 starts back in 2019 but didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and spent significant time on the minor league injured list in 2023 as well.

When healthy, however, Vanasco pitched quite well in the Dodgers’ system. In fact, after being removed from the team’s 40-man roster, Vanasco logged 28 innings betweeen Double-A and Triple-A while pitching to a pristine 0.64 ERA with a 42-to-10 K/BB ratio (36.5% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate). That showing was apparently enough for the Dodgers to offer up a big league deal in order to keep him in the system.

Although he has not yet made his big league debut, Vanasco spent the past two seasons on the 40-man roster in Texas and Los Angeles, which required him to be optioned at the end of spring training. As such, he’s exhausted two option years already. He still has an option remaining, and given his minor league injury history it’s possible he could eventually qualify for a fourth option year. For now, he’ll head to spring training healthy and perhaps on the verge of finally making his big league debut.

Padres, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Blake Snell

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The Padres, Dodgers and Giants are all interested in free-agent left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post in a discussion with Lauren Shehadi of MLB Network (video courtesy of MLB Network on X).

Snell, 31 next month, is fairly unique and will likely have wide variances in how he’s valued by clubs. On the positive side, he just finished 2023 with a 2.25 earned run average over his 32 starts. His 31.5% strikeout rate was second among qualified hurlers, trailing only Spencer Strider. He has a decent shot at winning a Cy Young award tonight, which would be the second of his career after winning it with the Rays in 2018.

But Snell has somehow managed to accomplish all of that despite giving out many free passes. He has walked 10.9% of batters faced in his career and that figure was cranked up to 13.3% in 2023. For context, the major league average in the most recent season was 8.6%. The strikeouts surely helped him prevent many of those runners from scoring, but so did a strong 44.4% ground ball rate. But maintaining his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate would be hard to do over an extended timeline, which is why his 3.44 FIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest his ERA was perhaps flattering him by more than a full run.

He’s also not exactly a workhorse, partly due to some injuries in his career but also due to those walks preventing him from pitching deep into games. He tossed 180 2/3 innings in 2018 and a flat 180 in 2023, with those two seasons being his highest such tallies. Each other season of his career has seen him come in under 130 frames.

Despite some concerning elements in his profile, free agents with multiple Cy Young trophies don’t grow on trees and Snell could be just that in a few hours’ time. Earlier this month, MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents predicted Snell could get a contract of seven years and $200MM. That’s based on the fact that pitchers with the potential for dominance can still get paid, even if it’s not a volume proposition. Carlos Rodón got six years and $162MM with a longer injury track record than Snell and never once getting to the 180-inning mark.

That will likely limit Snell’s market to the clubs with deeper pockets, but it sounds like he is still plenty popular. A return to the Padres would make plenty of sense from a strict baseball perspective. The club obviously likes him since they acquired him three years ago, giving up four prospects in the process. The club also has significant rotation needs, with Snell’s free agency coinciding with that of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez. That leaves the Friars with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as the only locks for their 2024 rotation.

The financial fit would be a little harder to see, however. The club is reportedly set to cut payroll significantly for next year, going from the $250MM range to the $200MM range. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next year at $198MM, leaving very little wiggle room. The club is reportedly shopping reliever Scott Barlow and has at least some openness to Juan Soto trades, but the budget is obviously tight. Moving Soto for major league-ready pieces and then signing Snell with the money saved would be one way to compete again in 2024, but there would be plenty of risk in that path.

Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.

That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.

Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.

However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.

The Giants also have some money to spend and seem motivated to make a big splash. Roster Resource has their 2024 payroll at $147MM and their CBT calculation at $170MM. They’ve topped out at $200MM in past seasons, per Cot’s, but might be willing to push farther this winter. Recent attempts to land star players have fallen short, with the club just missing on guys like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. It is expected that they will be motivated to get something splashy done this time around and could be quite aggressive in trying to do so.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi already spoke about the club’s plans for adding to the rotation, which makes sense given the question marks behind Logan Webb, and Heyman says they are also one of the clubs looking for multiple starting this winter. They picked up their option on Alex Cobb for 2024 but he will be coming back from hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling will each be coming off of disappointing seasons in 2023 while guys like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn are fairly unproven.

Broadly speaking, the demand for starting pitching is high, with Heyman reporting that there are eight teams looking to add multiple pitchers this winter. Not all of them will have the money and/or the appetite for Snell but it seems like general the market conditions could be working in his favor.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agent Timeline

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An offseason defined by Shohei Ohtani’s free agency hasn’t been especially active within the first couple weeks. For most of the game’s top spenders, the winter may well be defined by whether they land the two-way superstar.

Those clubs may not have to wait long to learn the answer. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that teams involved in the Ohtani market believe the expected AL MVP might make his decision early, potentially before the Winter Meetings begin on December 4.

Despite that possibility, there haven’t been many teams substantively linked to Ohtani. That’s by design, as it seems his camp isn’t interested in spotlighting his free agent process. Passan writes that clubs pursuing the three-time All-Star believe that if word of a sit-down with Ohtani were made public, “it will be held against the team.”

Even in the absence of substantive reports of teams meeting with Ohtani, it’s not hard to identify the likelier suitors. The incumbent Angels have made no secret of their hope of keeping him around. Teams like the Padres and Cubs have been mentioned in more speculative fashion.

Passan unsurprisingly lists the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox as teams likely to be involved. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto danced around an Ohtani question at last week’s GM Meetings but acknowledged the Seattle front office would “presumably” need to try to value a free agent who is without precedent. Dipoto subsequently indicated the team was open to bringing in a designated hitter, saying they’d “love to have a full-time DH, a banger who just goes out and bangs” (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The Giants are clearly searching for a star player. Both New York franchises figure to be involved. Passan indicates that the Blue Jays, not as frequently speculated as an Ohtani landing spot because of geography, could look for a way to make a splash this offseason (although he doesn’t specifically link Toronto to Ohtani beyond what seems a loosely speculative tie). Other teams could kick around ways to get involved on a player this unique. It’d be a real surprise if he didn’t land with a club accustomed to running a player payroll in the upper third of MLB, though.

Ohtani officially rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels this afternoon. That doesn’t affect his chances of returning to Anaheim. He was never going to consider a $20.325MM salary. Having to relinquish a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus room isn’t much of a factor for a player of this magnitude. Organizations considering a record-shattering contract may know within the next few weeks whether they’ll get that opportunity.

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