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Gomes: Dodgers Seek Additional Starting Pitching

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The Dodgers added a playoff-caliber arm to their staff when acquiring Tyler Glasnow from the Rays, but they’re still searching for more starting pitching, general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters Monday (via Fabian Aradaya of The Athletic).

That shouldn’t come as any real surprise. Los Angeles included a member of its rotation, right-hander Ryan Pepiot, in the package to acquire Glasnow from Tampa Bay, so they didn’t really add to their depth at all in the swap. Glasnow also has a lengthy injury history, with last season’s 120 frames representing a career-high. While the Dodgers surely feel he’s an upgrade on a per-inning basis, they also can’t simply bank on Glasnow making 30 starts and occupying a workhorse role atop the rotation.

As it stands, the L.A. rotation would feature Glasnow, Walker Buehler (who’ll be on an innings limit in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery), Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan. Candidates for the fifth spot include Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Ryan Yarbrough and prospects Nick Frasso and Landon Knack.

There have already been indications that the Dodgers would continue to be active in the starting pitching market, albeit none as concrete as an on-record declaration from the team’s general manager. The Dodgers have been a prominent participant in the bidding for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and they’ve also reportedly shown interest in trading for White Sox righty Dylan Cease. Other rumored targets have included free agent righties Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo (who’s since signed with the Royals). A reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains eminently plausible, although Kershaw wouldn’t be available to pitch until next summer at the earliest.

The Dodgers are less than $2MM from the second luxury tax threshold, per Roster Resource’s projections, although their actual bottom-line payroll clocks in under $200MM thanks to deferred money not only in the Shohei Ohtani contract but also the significant deferrals in the Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman deals. As a third-time luxury payor, they’ll effectively be taxed at a 62% clip for the next $20MM they spend and a 95% clip for the $20MM after that, and 110% for any money spent thereafter.

Yamamoto’s lingering presence in free agency has continued to hold up other aspects of the market, though he’ll have to sign a deal by early January — and reports have suggested he could look to finalize a deal before Christmas. Once he’s made a decision, pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman and Giolito could accelerate. Similarly, the White Sox (Cease) and Guardians (Shane Bieber) could increase their efforts to trade prominent starters of their own, knowing that the teams who missed on Yamamoto will be motivated to find alternate options elsewhere.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/23

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Some minor league moves from around the baseball world…

  • The Royals released Cody Poteet, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Poteet underwent a Tommy John surgery in August 2022 and as a result missed almost all of the 2023 season, save for two innings of work in one game with Triple-A Omaha in late September.  Kansas City signed Poteet to a minors deal last winter in anticipation that he’d spend most of the season in recovery, and the 29-year-old will now enter free agency again with at least a more optimistic health situation.  Poteet’s MLB resume consists of a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2021-22, as well as a 3.80 ERA in 521 2/3 career minor league frames.
  • The Dodgers signed outfielder Austin Beck to a minor league contract, as Beck revealed via his X account.  Beck selected sixth overall by the Athletics in the 2017 draft, though his eight games with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate in 2021 represents his highest step on the minor league ladder.  Multiple injuries have set back Beck’s progress, most notably a torn ACL that cost him the entire 2023 season.  The Dodgers will take a flier on Beck to see if there’s any late-bloomer potential now that he’s healthy, and Beck is still only 25 years old.

Erik Neander Discusses Tyler Glasnow Trade

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  • Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander spoke to reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) today in the wake of the trade that sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers. While Neander acknowledged that the club loses some “certainty” in dealing way Glasnow and Margot, he also suggested that he sees both Pepiot and DeLuca as players who could impact the big league club in the near future Neander was particularly effusive in his praise of Pepiot, who he suggested has “a very good chance to be a good major-league starter” and could be “very close” to reaching that potential. Per Topkin, the deal will save the Rays $33MM in 2024 as Tampa Bay will pay the Dodgers just $2MM of the $4MM cash included in the trade this season, with the remaining $2MM to be paid out next offseason in the event that the Dodgers decline their $12MM option on Margot, which would cover the $2MM buyout on that option.

NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod

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“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.  While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.

Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer.  Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers.  While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board.  The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Giants remain interested in potentially re-signing Sean Manaea, The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports.  There hasn’t been much buzz on the left-hander since he opted out of the final year (and a $12.5MM salary) of his previous contract with San Francisco to test the open market, though it stands to reason that Manaea might get more looks as more and more free agent pitchers come off the board.  Likewise, the Giants’ pitching needs haven’t really changed since the offseason began, and Manaea might be a reasonable addition even if they did land Yamamoto or Snell considering that the Giants could deal from their crop of young pitchers to bolster their lineup.  Manaea had a 4.44 ERA and an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate over 117 2/3 innings for the Giants last season, working in a modified swingman role as a starter, bulk pitcher, or piggyback starter.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez’s past history with Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo helped pave the way to the Snakes’ four-year, $80MM contract with the free agent southpaw, as Rodriguez told reporters (including Theo Mackie and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).  Hazen was Boston’s GM and Lovullo the bench coach during Rodriguez’s past stint with the Red Sox, and this familiarity resulted in what Hazen described as a two-hour meeting that touched on both the past and what Rodriguez can bring to the D’Backs going forward.  Rodriguez and agent Gene Mato met with seven teams during the Winter Meetings, and the field was narrowed to the D’Backs and a mystery team before Arizona sealed the deal in a second sitdown.

Agent Nez Balelo Discusses Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agency

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With Shohei Ohtani now officially a member of the Dodgers and in possession of a record-setting 10-year, $700MM contract, agent Nez Balelo pulled back the curtain a bit on Ohtani’s very secretive free agent explorations in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The purposeful lack of direct information about the Ohtani sweepstakes only added to the firestorm of media speculation about where the two-way superstar might land, and the tight hand that Balelo reportedly kept on the proceedings drew some criticism for its perceived over-the-top nature.  However, the CAA agent unsurprisingly didn’t have any regrets about the tactics.

“I’m so glad we did it this way, and I would do the same thing over and over again.  There’s not even a question in my mind,” Balelo said.  “The clubs appreciated it and respected it.  There wasn’t a team that said, ’You know what, let’s just get this out.’  Shohei and I wanted to be able to control the narrative, and teams were on board with it.  I heard that some media members felt that I needed to share information because this is a historical moment, but I 100% disagree.  I can’t even begin to even think how that makes sense.  There has to be a level of confidentiality….This was arguably the most highly exposed free agent ever on the market, and ultimately, I got the best result.  So how can you judge and criticize the way that I approached this?“

That said, Balelo also seemed to push back against reports that suggested any public acknowledgement by a team of its interest in Ohtani could or would detract from the team’s chances.  “That was ridiculous.  Those words never came out of my mouth,” Balelo said, pointing out that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ admission at the Winter Meetings that L.A. was in on Ohtani “sure didn’t have an effect, did it?”

Ohtani said during Spring Training that he wanted to test free agency and not discuss an extension with the Angels during the season, allowing Balelo and the CAA team to craft “a well thought-out approach” months in advance of Ohtani’s official entry into the market.  Balelo met with executives from several teams during the GM Meetings, which the agent viewed as “a good gauge of where the interest level was, to understand who was serious, and who really who was just kicking the tires.  There were a lot of teams that weren’t going to be in play because of the level of [money] where they all felt this was going to go.  So that that pretty much eliminated half the field.”

As more and more teams fell out of the race, the five finalists were the Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays.  “The Dodgers were always at the forefront in talks,” Nightengale writes, and Balelo similarly wasn’t surprised when Ohtani informed his agent late in the afternoon on December 8 that he had decided to sign with Los Angeles.

This happened to be the same day that multiple reports suggested Ohtani had agreed to a deal with the Jays, and was en route to Toronto in a private jet.  Balelo described the situation as “about the most reckless reporting I’ve ever experienced in this game,” as “I felt really, really bad for the country of Canada.  And I felt really, really bad for the Toronto Blue Jays organization.  They are really good people.  What they had to endure, and the pain, wasn’t right.  I felt so bad for all of them that they had to go through that because it was the extreme emotional roller coaster of thinking that they had him and then finding out they didn’t.”

The Dodgers weren’t officially told Ohtani’s decision until the next day, and Balelo then called the Jays, Giants, Cubs, and Angels in turn to also break the news before Ohtani officially announced his choice via Instagram.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman already had some inkling of Ohtani’s choice on December 8 when Balelo inquired whether the Dodgers would agree to Ohtani’s desire to defer the vast majority of his $700MM deal until 2034 and beyond.  This offer was already on the table, so the Dodgers made no late increase to convince Ohtani to sign.

Though deferrals have been a common part of baseball contracts for years, Ohtani’s choice to defer $680MM of his salary drew almost as many headlines as his decision itself.  In discussing the deferred money, Balelo noted that Ohtani is “in such a unique position because he’s going to make so much money off the field….Basically, he’s in the most unique position of any player in the history of the game to be able to do this.  It’s not like we’re setting a precedent that every player now is going to defer everything out in his contract.”

With Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his luxury tax hit to $46MM (rather than $70MM) per season, the Dodgers will very significantly benefit from a Competitive Balance Tax standpoint, and Ohtani will cost himself some overall money due to inflation and the value of money today against money earned in a decade’s time.  Balelo described Ohtani’s decision as “the most incredible act of unselfishness and willingness to win that I’ve ever experienced in my life, or ever will. He did not care at all about the present value inflation.  And you know what, neither did I.  He should be praised for this.  He did not want to handcuff a team with his salary.  He said, ’How can I contribute to a team and allow them to stay competitive?’  So he took the most unselfish approach possible and deferred everything.”

Dodgers, Tyler Glasnow Finalizing Extension

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The Dodgers’ acquisition of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays was contingent upon the former agreeing to a contract extension, and a new deal between Glasnow and L.A. is now nearly complete. The Wasserman client will reportedly earn an additional $110MM over four years on top of the $25MM he’d been slated to earn. Glasnow will earn $90MM from 2025-27, and the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on the 2028 season. If they decline their end, Glasnow has a $20MM player option (thus accounting for the $110MM in guaranteed new money). There’s no deferred money on the contract, which will be considered a five-year, $135MM deal for luxury tax purposes (equating to a $27MM per year hit).

Glasnow, 30, stands as the first notable starting pitching upgrade the Dodgers have made this offseason. His acquisition gives them a top-of-the-rotation talent to bolster the roster — albeit one who’s spent more time on the injured list than the active roster in his career. Last season’s 21 starts and 120 innings were both career-high marks for the 6’8″ right-hander, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, a forearm strain, an elbow strain and a significant oblique strain that kept him out for two months to begin the 2023 season.

When he’s been healthy, however, Glasnow has been nothing short of excellent. Since being traded from the Pirates, his original organization, to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer heist, Glasnow has worked to a 3.20 earned run average, fanned an enormous 34.1% of his opponents and coupled that with a sharp 7.8% walk rate. He’s long had better-than-average grounder rates, but last year’s 52.1% mark was a career-best. He also notched a huge 16.5% swinging-strike rate that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.

It’s a considerable bet to make on a pitcher who’s never topped 120 innings — easily the largest contract ever for anyone with such a limited track record of durability. There is, of course, a lot more nuance to Glasnow’s injury history than that 120 number, which MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes outlined in an article this afternoon for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  By the way, if you sign up for Front Office, we’ll be happy to send you any recent articles.

The four-year, $110MM in new money and effective five-year, $135MM term of Glasnow’s contract (for luxury tax purposes) roughly fall in line with previous extensions for high-end pitchers with injury concerns. Jacob deGrom inked a four-year, $120.5MM extension several years ago (prior to opting out and signing with the Rangers), and the contract also generally aligns with the five-year, $145MM term on Chris Sale’s Red Sox extensions. Certainly, the Dodgers will be hoping for better results from their own investment.

The rotation in Los Angeles is slated to consist of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, at present. Emmet Sheehan is likely in line for the fourth spot, while Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough and others battle it out for the fifth spot on the staff. Of course, L.A. is widely expected to continue adding to the starting five, with reported targets including free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Lucas Giolito, in addition to trade target Dylan Cease. It stands to reason there are other pitchers in both markets currently being eyed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the Dodger front office.

From a payroll perspective, the Dodgers were already squarely into luxury-tax territory, sitting at a projected $251MM, per Roster Resource. Adding an additional $2MM to account for the new tax hit on Glasnow will push them up to about $253MM, which places them $4MM shy of the second tier of penalty.

The Dodgers’ bottom-line payroll is another story entirely, thanks not only the $680MM in deferred money on Shohei Ohtani’s contract but also the $115MM in deferred money on Mookie Betts’ 12-year deal and the $57MM in deferrals on Freddie Freeman’s six-year contract. They still owe well south of $200MM in terms of actual player salary for the upcoming season, even when factoring in projected arbitration salaries. As such, there’s ample room to continue adding significant pieces to the roster, so long as the Dodgers don’t mind being taxed at increasingly steep rates. They’re a third-time luxury payor, so they’ll be taxed at 62% for any dollars spent from $257MM to $277MM, at 95% from $277MM to $297MM, and a hefty 110% for any dollars spent thereafter.

Beyond landing the biggest fish in the history of free agency and acquiring Glasnow and Margot, the Dodgers have also re-signed Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly, brought Daniel Hudson back on a minor league contract and traded lefty Victor Gonzalez to the Yankees in what’s been an active offseason so far. With clear needs in the rotation and perhaps on the bench and in the bullpen, it’s highly unlikely that Friedman, Gomes & co. will consider this their final significant deal of the winter.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the extension was all but finalized. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

Dodgers, Rays Discussing Deal Involving Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot

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December 14: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports today that the two sides are still discussing a trade. He says that “word is” the Dodgers “may also be” interested in an extension. It’s unclear what level of interest Glasnow has in an extension.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

Ohtani Contract Contains Conditional Opt-Out Clause Based On Ownership, Front Office

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Shohei Ohtani’s landmark contract with the Dodgers has prompted endless discussion, debate and criticism due to the unprecedented scope of the deferrals it contains, but that’s far from the only fascinating wrinkle of the 10-year deal.

Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports that the contract contains language “that assures the club will make good on its promise to use the savings he created to build a competitive team around him.” Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, tells Verducci that Ohtani asked him early in the free-agent process about whether it was possible to defer the majority or entirety of his salary in order to give his club more present-day payroll flexibility.

As far as we at MLBTR can tell, that’s the first clause of its nature in any player contract. Further specifics of the clause and the manner in which it will be enforced remain unclear. The Dodgers’ reported pursuits of a trade involving Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot, plus their recent meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, seem to signal that the team is indeed taking steps to satisfy that condition, though.

The luxury-tax hit associated with Ohtani’s contract is $46.06MM, according to Verducci, which sits roughly in line with expectations at the outset of his free agency. But, the manner in which the contract was announced has created substantial criticism. It’s fair to wonder if, had the contract been announced as 10 years and $460MM deferred with interest, it would have invited the same backlash as the initial announcement of a $700MM deal … which was later reported to be 97% deferred.

The initial $700MM figure looks good in a recruiting pitch for future CAA clients, but the league’s approximate $460MM valuation of the net present value is a different story entirely. The MLBPA’s valuations are a bit lower yet; Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the union values the contract at $437,830,563, but the luxury-tax hit will be based upon the league’s calculations.

There’s been plenty of talk about the contract as a means of gaming the luxury tax system, although the $46.06MM CBT hit is in line with the league’s valuation of the deal. If anything, the contract is less about circumventing the luxury tax and more about artificially tamping down the team’s actual, bottom-line payrolls from 2024-33.

Unprecedented contractual language doesn’t stop with the competitive team clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the contract states the following: “If specific change in Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.”

The conditional opt-out is applicable to controlling owner Mark Walter and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, per a report from Beth Harris and Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. If either Walter or Friedman leave the organization, Ohtani would gain the opt-out possibility. Alden González of ESPN tweets that would go into effect at the end of any season in which Walter or Friedman departed, so there’s no possibility of Ohtani opting out midseason.

It’s nevertheless a noteworthy inclusion, particularly in the case of Friedman. While the front office leader isn’t in any immediate jeopardy based on the team’s excellence over the course of his decade-long run, tying his contractual status to that of the team’s best player for the next 10 years is a bold move by ownership. Friedman signed an extension of undisclosed length in November 2019. It isn’t clear if he has signed any subsequent deals, though it’s hard to envision him departing the organization any time soon.

Given the massive slate of deferred money — Ohtani will be paid just $2MM annually from 2024-33, with the remaining $680MM paid out from 2034-43 — it’s difficult to see Ohtani opting out at any juncture, unless there’s language that allows a portion of those deferrals to be paid out in conjunction with the opt-out.

It’s technically feasible that if Ohtani is able to return to the mound in 2025, he could reestablish himself as a viable top-of-the-rotation starter and have even greater earning power than the ~$460MM net present value of his current contract. However, if he’s only been paid out around 1-2% of the overall guarantee at the time of a theoretical opt-out opportunity, it’d still be difficult to walk away from the deal.

Then again, Ohtani showed with his original move to MLB (and to a lesser extent with the eye-popping nature of his current deferrals) that money is not necessarily his top priority in any contract. He’s also reportedly earning as much as $50MM annually in terms of endorsements and other marketing opportunities, so the notion that he’d leave a staggering portion of his record contract on the table in order to pursue a return to free agency isn’t as far-fetched as it would be for many other players.

News of the (as we know it) unprecedented out clause in Ohtani’s contract will invite ample speculation. Fans on social media have already wondered about ownership changes, front office changes, managerial changes or perhaps even trades of star teammates like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. With the contract itself not plainly spelling out the nature of the change, there’s no way of knowing the specific nature of personnel change that would trigger this right for Ohtani, however. The clause is further proof of the lengths to which the Dodgers — and presumably other teams — were willing to go in order to secure the two-way star’s generational talents.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already indicated that the terms of Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers were proposed by Ohtani and his agents, and that the Giants were comfortable effectively matching them. Presumably if Ohtani’s camp included the stipulations about investing the present-day savings and the conditional out clause in the terms with the Dodgers, those factors were also present in discussions with the Giants, Blue Jays and other finalists for his services.

One other note from the AP: while the Dodgers have already announced the contract, it has not yet gone to MLB for official approval. As of Wednesday evening, the deal still takes the form of a letter of agreement between Ohtani and the Dodgers.

MLBTR Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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