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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Diamondbacks Claim Chris Rodriguez

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While the Diamondbacks are preparing to host their first World Series game in over twenty years, they’re already thinking about the future. The team claimed right-handed pitcher Chris Rodriguez off of waivers from the Angels, according to his player page on MLB.com (and as first reported by Robert Murray of FanSided). Rodriguez spent the entire 2022 and ’23 seasons on the injured list following shoulder surgery.

When he last took the field, Rodriguez was a promising young arm with a high-velocity fastball and a nasty curve. Entering the 2021 season, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in the Angels system, praising his “wicked stuff” and “tantalizing four-pitch mix.” Across 15 games (2 starts) in his rookie campaign, he posted a 3.64 ERA, 3.50 xERA, and 4.29 SIERA. His 11.2% walk rate was cause for concern, yet he made up for it with an excellent 54.7% groundball rate. Even then, however, health was a problem for the righty. He missed all of the 2018 season and most of 2019 with back injuries before his shoulder started to cause problems in 2021. He would need capsule repair surgery, ending his rookie season, and he has not returned to a major league mound since. In addition to his long rehab for his shoulder, Rodriguez also dealt with a setback related to his back in 2023, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Despite all his injury trouble, it’s easy to see why Arizona was interested in Rodriguez. Still just 25 years old, he’s not so far removed from all the potential he had in his prospect days, although he has to prove he can stay on the field long enough to rediscover what made him such a highly-regarded talent. The Diamondbacks, for their part, have done well to help their pitchers thrive in recent years. Zac Gallen has become one of the best pitchers in baseball since he was dealt to D-backs in 2019. Merrill Kelly became a reliable MLB starter in his thirties after several seasons in the KBO. Kevin Ginkel, a 22nd-round pick, has blossomed into one of the better relievers in baseball. Most recently, the Diamondbacks raised Brandon Pfaadt from fifth-round pick to top-100 prospect to postseason hero. Arizona’s pitching coach, Brent Strom, is widely considered one of the most knowledgeable pitching gurus in the league.

It’s a little harder to see why the Angels would let Rodriguez go. They will surely need pitching depth in 2024, and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, it’s difficult to picture this team in the thick of the playoff race next season. Nevertheless, they seem to have decided that Rodriguez’s 40-man roster spot was too valuable to use on a player who hasn’t pitched in over two years. The 25-year-old has spent most of the past two seasons on the 60-day injured list, but there is no 60-day IL during the offseason, so the Angels would have had to add him back to the 40-man after the World Series, thereby giving them one less open spot for potential offseason additions.

Latest On Angels’ Managerial Search

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Though the impending free agency of Shohei Ohtani remains the biggest story of the offseason in Anaheim, the club parted ways with manager Phil Nevin at the end of the 2023 campaign, leading the club to begin a search for his replacement. The search has already turned up a handful of candidates including recently-fired Mets manager Buck Showalter, who has both expressed interest in the job and seen that interest reciprocated by Angels brass. Infield coach Benji Gil and longtime Angels outfielder Darin Erstad have also previously been floated as potential candidates for the position.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided an update on the club’s managerial search this morning, and in doing so put forth three more candidates: five-time All Star Torii Hunter, who patrolled the outfield in Anaheim for five seasons; 1993 Rookie of the Year Tim Salmon, who spent his entire 14-year big league career with the Angels; and veteran coach Ron Roenicke, who spent seven seasons as a third base coach in Anaheim under Mike Scioscia.

Nightengale gives particular mention to Hunter, noting that the 48-year-old is “tremendously regarded” by Angels owner Arte Moreno. Moreno is known to be among the most hands-on owners in the game, so his endorsement would surely be a notable piece of any managerial candidate’s resume. That being said, Hunter lacks experience in the dugout beyond his playing career, which would conflict with the Angels’ previously-reported preference for an experienced manager to take over in Nevin’s stead. Salmon faces a similar roadblock, though he’s served as head coach of Scottsdale Christian Academy in Phoenix since 2015.

If the Angels are valuing experience in their managerial search, Roenicke certainly fits the bill. In addition to his aforementioned tenure with the Angels as a third base coach and an eight-year playing career in the majors, the 67-year-old has served as manager for both the Brewers and Red Sox in the past, while also serving as a coach with the Dodgers and in Boston throughout his post-playing career. He currently serves as a special assistant in the Dodgers’ front office. Nightengale suggests that Roenicke, along with Gil and Showalter, may be in line for formal interviews with the club. It’s unclear if Hunter would also be in line for a potential interview, though Nightengale reports Erstad and Salmon’s candidacies as merely having been “discussed” by Angels brass.

Whoever ultimately takes the reins of the Angels dugout this offseason, they’ll have their work cut out for them in 2024. The Angels finished with identical 73-89 records in both 2022 and 2023, and are at risk of losing a superstar, two-way talent in Ohtani this offseason. Even if the club manages to retain Ohtani, he won’t pitch in 2024, leaving the club with a vacancy at the front of the rotation on top of holes to fill in the bullpen. While the club has a solid position player group, it lacks depth that is particularly necessary for a club that’s seen frequent trips to the injured list for Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and other veteran players in recent seasons.

Angels Part Ways With Buddy Carlyle

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  • The Angels have parted ways with minor league pitching coordinator Buddy Carlyle, per Sam Blum of The Athletic. Carlyle, a right-hander who pitched in the majors in parts of nine seasons spanning 1999 to 2015, played for five major league clubs in addition to stints in the NPB and KBO. After retiring in 2015, Carlyle was hired by the Braves as a coaching assistant in charge of replay review before moving on to act as pitching coach for the Anaheim’s Double-A affiliate in Mobile. He moved with the team to the Rocket City Trash Pandas in his role as pitching coach before eventually being promoted to his most recent role. Carlyle’s departure makes for another coaching position the Angels will have to fill this offseason, with replacing recently-fired manager Phil Nevin standing as chief among those.

AL Notes: Astros, Angels, White Sox, Tigers, Orioles

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Dusty Baker might be finished as a manager, but the baseball lifer has a job in the Astros front office anytime he wants it. Owner Jim Crane told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) that Baker is “always welcome” in the Astros organization. Meanwhile, the long-time skipper said he is “retiring from the field” but hasn’t made up his mind about what comes next (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

As for hiring a new manager to replace Baker, the Astros are just beginning their search. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests that bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus are “strong candidates.” Ausmus was a contender for the Astros GM position last offseason and the managerial opening back in 2020. Espada was another candidate in the team’s last managerial search, and he has interviewed for numerous other managing jobs in the years since. McTaggart also identified several contenders for the gig, including Ausmus, Espada, and Diamondbacks bench coach Jeff Banister.

More news from around the American League…

  • After four years on the Angels’ coaching staff (three as pitching coach), Matt Wise has accepted a new job as the bullpen coach for the White Sox, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal and Sam Blum of The Athletic. While going from pitching coach to bullpen coach might seem like a step backward, Wise was something of a sitting duck in the Angels organization. Los Angeles is looking to hire a new manager after parting ways with Phil Nevin, and that new manager will presumably want to hire a coaching staff of his own.
  • The Tigers, meanwhile, need a new first base coach. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Alfredo Amézaga will not return to A.J. Hinch’s coaching staff next season. He joined the staff ahead of the 2023 campaign after previously working as a minor league coach in the Braves organization. Amézaga is also a manager in the Mexican Winter League.
  • Finally, over in the AL East, the Orioles made some changes in their scouting and player development departments. A dozen front office staffers were promoted to new roles, including Matt Blood, the new vice president of player development and domestic scouting; Koby Perez, the new vice president of international scouting and operations; and Anthony Villa, the new director of player development (per Roch Kubatko of MASN). Blood was the previous director of player development, while Perez served as director of international scouting. Villa was the minor league hitting coordinator in 2023.

Angels Hire Dom Chiti As Minor League Pitching Coordinator

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  • The Angels have hired Dom Chiti as a minor league pitching coordinator, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (via X).  Chiti previously worked for Los Angeles as a special assistant and then as bullpen coach from 2020-22, before joining the Mets as their bullpen coach for the 2023 season.  The 64-year-old Chiti has over four decades of experience in a variety of coaching and front office roles with the Angels, Mets, Rangers, Indians, and Orioles.

Bill Haselman "Talked About" In Connection To Giants' Managerial Job

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  • Angels third base coach Bill Haselman “has been talked about” in regards to the Giants’ managerial job, a source tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Haselman played in parts of 13 MLB seasons from 1990-2003, and has five years of coaching experience on Major League staffs — as a bullpen coach and first base coach for the Red Sox in 2004-06, and as a catching instructor and third base coach in Anaheim over the last two seasons.  Haselman also has a lot of experience as a minor league coach and manager in the Angels’ and Dodgers’ minor league systems, and his time with the Dodgers overlapped with Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as Los Angeles’ general manager from 2014-18.  It remains to be seen if Haselman is more than a speculative candidate to be the Giants’ next skipper, though Zaidi (San Francisco’s president of baseball operations) appears to be expanding his search beyond internal candidates.

Angels Outright Six Players

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The Angels have outrighted first baseman Jared Walsh, outfielder Brett Phillips, catcher Chad Wallach, right-handers Jaime Barria and Carson Fulmer, and left-hander Jhonathan Diaz, per MLB.com’s Transactions page. It had not previously been announced that the group were designated for assignment, but each player evidently cleared waivers. Walsh, Phillips, Wallach, Barria, and Fulmer will each now have the opportunity to elect free agency and hit the open market this offseason.

Walsh, 30, is perhaps the most noteworthy of the group. A 39th-round pick by the Angels in the 2015 draft, Walsh made it to the majors in 2019 and broke out in a big way during the shortened 2020 season, slashing an incredible .293/.324/.646 with nine home runs in just 108 trips to the plate. He followed up that breakout campaign with a strong 2021 as the club’s regular first baseman. In 144 games that year, Walsh hit .277/.340/.509 with 29 homers in his first full season of big league action en route to his first career All Star appearance. Unfortunately, things went down hill for Walsh from there. The slugger has struggled with neurological issues in recent years and struggled to be an effective big leaguer as a result, slashing just .197/.258/.355 in 157 games across the past two seasons. Deep as Walsh’s struggles have been in recent years, if he can prove himself to be healthy it’s certainly feasible that a club with a need at first base could give him a look thanks to his significant success in the relatively recent past.

Phillips, 29, made his big league debut with the Brewers during the 2017 season, slashing a solid .276/.351/.448 in 98 trips to the plate for the club. That said, Phillips’s true calling card is his outfield defense, which has allowed him to appear in the majors for each of the past seven seasons of his career despite only posting a better-than-average slash line in 2021 besides his debut season. Though he’s slashed a paltry .187/.272/.347 for his career including an abysmal .152/.230/.269 line the past two seasons, Phillips has managed to bounce between the Brewers, Royals, Rays, Orioles, and Angels throughout his career and could enter free agency as a solid, glove-first depth piece for interested clubs, though it’s possible he’ll have to settle for a minor league deal.

Wallach, 31, made is MLB debut in 2017 and since then has bounced around the major and minor leagues as a depth option behind the plate, with previous major league stints in Cincinnati and Miami as well as Anaheim. 2023 was the journeyman’s first extended big league opportunity thanks to injuries to the club’s typical catching corps of Logan O’Hoppe and Max Stassi, and Wallach performed passably in the role with solid framing numbers and 70 wRC+ that placed him 49th among 69 catchers with at least 100 big league plate appearances this season. Wallach figures to once again receive interest as a potential depth piece for clubs in need of additional catching options this offseason.

Barria, 27, made his MLB debut in 2018 and has spent his entire career with the Angels to this point. His rookie season was an impressive one, as he posted a 3.41 ERA that was 23% better than league average by ERA+ in 26 starts, though his 4.58 FIP left something to be desired. Barria struggled in a swing role in 2019 before bouncing back with a 3.62 ERA and matching 3.65 FIP in 32 1/3 innings of work during the shortened 2020 season. That set off what has become a trend of Barria alternating between struggles and success every other season; while he posted excellent numbers in 2022 with a 2.61 ERA as a multi-inning reliever, he struggled in 2021 and especially the 2023 campaign, during which he posted a 5.68 ERA and 6.07 FIP across 82 1/3 innings of work. Still, given Barria’s relative youth and previous success, it seems like a reasonable bet that he’ll find interest in his services this offseason.

Fulmer, who was selected eighth overall by the White Sox in the 2015 draft, struggled to a 6.41 ERA and 5.93 FIP across 130 2/3 innings for the first six seasons of his big league career while bouncing between the White Sox, Tigers, Orioles, and Reds organizations. After a solid season at the Triple-A level for Fulmer with the Dodgers in 2022, he signed on in Anaheim and return to the big leagues late in the year. He pitched fairly well in ten innings of work, striking out six while posting a 2.70 ERA across three appearances. The 29-year-old figures to once again receive interest from clubs this offseason, though it seems likely he’ll once again be limited to minor league offers.

Diaz, meanwhile, will remain in the Angels organization as a player with less than three years service time who’s just received the first outright assignment of his career. The 27-year-old lefty made his big league debut in Anaheim back in 2021, and has posted a 4.84 ERA with a 4.83 FIP across 35 1/3 innings of work in the big leagues split across the last three seasons. Diaz sports identical 14.4% strikeout and walk rates for his big league career thanks to a brutal 2023 campaign that saw him walk seven batters in seven innings while striking out just four and posting a 10.29 ERA. He’ll remain a decent left-handed depth option for the Angels going forward.

Angels Reportedly Interested In Darin Erstad As Manager

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  • Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently noted that the Angels, who have been reported to have mutual interest with Buck Showalter regarding the club’s managerial vacancy, are seeking a veteran manager for the 2024 campaign. While Showalter certainly fits that description, another candidate Heyman puts forth is Darin Erstad, who played for the Angels in 11 major league seasons and in retirement served as the head coach for University of Nebraska, with whom he spent eight seasons in the role.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/13/23

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The latest minor moves from around the sport…

  • The Angels have re-signed catcher Tyler Payne to a new minor league deal, according to Ari Alexander of KPRC TV in Houston (X link).  Payne first joined the Halos organization last June, hitting .313/.369/.472 over 157 plate appearances with Double-A Rocket City.  Prior to signing with the Angels, Payne (who turns 31 later this month) had spent his entire pro career in the Cubs’ farm system since Chicago made him a 30th-round selection in the 2015 draft.  That stint with the Cubs culminated in Payne’s lone Major League game, back in 2021.
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