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Angels To Interview Ron Washington

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The Angels are interviewing Braves third base coach Ron Washington tonight as they continue their managerial search, reports Sam Blum of the Athletic (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated yesterday that Washington was on the Halos’ radar.

Washington continues to search for his first lead job since he resigned from the Rangers late in the 2014 season. The former infielder had led the dugout in Arlington for parts of eight years, rattling off four straight 90-win campaigns along the way. Washington’s Rangers won consecutive American League pennants in 2010-11 before falling short in the World Series.

The 71-year-old has spent the last seven years in Atlanta, where he has drawn particular praise for his work with the club’s infield. The early portion of Washington’s time on Brian Snitker’s staff overlapped with Perry Minasian’s time as an assistant general manager in Atlanta. Minasian is going into his fourth offseason at the helm of the Angels front office, with his next hire representing the third managerial hire of that time.

Heyman suggested yesterday that owner Arte Moreno was prioritizing previous managerial experience in this hiring search. Minasian told reporters this afternoon that the Halos were seeking a skipper who can “command a room” but left open the possibility of a first-time hire (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

White Sox To Hire Marcus Thames As Hitting Coach

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The White Sox are set to hire Marcus Thames away from the Angels and install him as their new hitting coach, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Thames held the same title with the Halos in 2023 — his first season with the organization. FutureSox.com’s James Fox first indicated earlier this morning that Thames was under consideration to be named the Sox’ new hitting coach. Thames becomes the second Angels staffer to jump to the White Sox this offseason; Chicago previously hired Matt Wise as their new bullpen coach.

Thames, 46, enjoyed a decade-long playing career from 2002-11, appearing in 640 big league games and popping 115 home runs while batting .246/.309/.485 between the Yankees, Rangers, Tigers and Dodgers. Upon calling it quits as a player, he began his coaching career as a minor league hitting coach with the Yankees, eventually ascending to their Major League staff as assistant hitting coach in 2016.

Since taking that initial big league job in the Bronx, Thames has been a fixture on Major League coaching staffs. The Yankees promoted him to their lead hitting coach for the 2017 season — a position he’d hold through 2021, when his contract wasn’t renewed. He’s since had one-year stints as the hitting coach with the Marlins and Angels.

Of course, a hitting coach cannot singlehandedly take credit for radically turning the tides of a lineup (for better or for worse), but it’s nevertheless notable that the Angels went from a lowly .233/.297/.390 batting line with 623 runs scored, a 25.7% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 2022 to far better results in 2023. Halos hitters produced at a collective .245/.317/.426 rate in 2023, scoring 739 runs and making modest strides both in terms of team strikeout rate (24.8%) and walk rate (8.4%).

That’s attributable to myriad factors, but the Sox surely feel that Thames’ work is among them. More broadly, his growing coaching experience in what’s now an eight-year MLB coaching career has added to his reputation and clearly drawn fairly broad-reaching interest. Detractors might point to short stints in both Miami and Anaheim, but both organizations ousted their manager after Thames’ first season on the job. Because managers typically are provided the opportunity to fill out their own coaching staffs, seeing Thames bounce around a bit isn’t necessarily all that surprising. The Angels are still in the process of looking for a replacement for outgoing manager Phil Nevin, whose contract expired at season’s end and who will not return for a third year on the job.

As for the Sox, while they’re sticking with skipper Pedro Grifol despite a highly disappointing 2023 campaign, the coaching staff is already undergoing ample turnover. In addition to Thames and Wise, the South Siders have hired Grady Sizemore as a baserunning/outfield coach. The Sox also reassigned a pair of coaches (assistant pitching coach Curt Hasler and assistant hitting coach Chris Johnson) in addition to moving on entirely from hitting coach Jose Castro (whom Thames will now replace) and first base coach Daryl Boston. Further changes are surely on the horizon, and Murray further reports that retired big league catcher Drew Butera, who served as the Angels’ catching coach last year, could be added to the Chicago staff in some capacity as well.

The changes in the dugout come on the heels of front office shakeup in Chicago. Longtime general manager Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams were fired over the summer, though the Sox stayed in-house by naming assistant GM Chris Getz their successor and new baseball operations leader. The rookie GM has since hired former big league infielder Paul Janish as the Sox’ director of player development. As is the case in the dugout, additional changes in the front office and baseball operations hierarchy can be expected as the ChiSox look to move past a disastrous 2023 campaign and return to relevance in the American League Central.

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Latest On Angels’ Managerial Search

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Three teams landed new managers on Monday, but there’s still plenty more to be done on that front around baseball. The Angels continue to search for a new dugout leader after declining an option on Phil Nevin at the start of the offseason.

It seems that search could be nearing its conclusion. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Halos could finalize a new hire by the end of the week. Jon Heyman of the New York Post listed a handful of candidates for the position (on X): Buck Showalter, Ron Washington, Gary DiSarcina, Benji Gil and Ray Montgomery. That isn’t necessarily an exhaustive list, as Heyman leaves open the possibility for another candidate to emerge.

Whether all five of those people have already interviewed with Halos brass is unclear. Showalter has been perhaps the most frequently mentioned candidate for the job. Gil and Montgomery make for natural candidates since they’re already on staff — the former as infield coach, the latter as bench coach.

DiSarcina also has myriad ties to the organization. He played for the Halos for the entirety of his 12-year playing career, earning an All-Star selection in 1995. He spent time in the front office at the beginning of the 2010s and logged three seasons on Mike Scioscia’s coaching staff. DiSarcina spent the last two seasons on Dave Martinez’s staff in Washington as third base coach. The Nationals announced last month that he would not return.

Ron Washington has spent seven seasons with the Braves as third base coach. The former Ranger skipper has come up in various managerial searches in recent years but hasn’t gotten a job since resigning from Texas at the end of the 2014 season. Washington led Texas to consecutive pennants in 2010-11 amidst a nearly eight-year run in Arlington.

Recent reports have named former Angels players Darin Erstad and Torii Hunter as potential options. Heyman confirms the Angels have spoken with Hunter but casts doubt on the fit, noting that owner Arte Moreno appears to prefer someone with prior MLB managerial experience. That could give the upper hand to Showalter or Washington, although it’s tough to pinpoint a specific favorite.

Buck Showalter One Of "Several Finalists" To Be Angels' Manager

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Beyond Showalter, such names as infield coodinator Benji Gil, former Brewers/Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, and former Angels players like Torii Hunter, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the manager’s job, though it isn’t clear how many proper interviews has taken place.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote today that the Halos “plan to interview” Hunter, Erstad, and Salmon, which would seem to run counter to the idea that the club has already moved onto its group of finalists.  Regardless, Showalter seems to be firmly in the mix, and his track record would seemingly give him some advantage in the race, as Roenicke is the only other candidate with past experience as a big league manager.

Buck Showalter is one of “several finalists” to be the Angels’ next manager, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).  Reports have linked Showalter to Anaheim’s vacancy for almost a month, just a few days after the Mets announced that the veteran skipper wouldn’t be back in their dugout next season.  Morosi’s update would seemingly imply that the Angels have moved into at least a secondary stage of their search, though public details have been rather scarce to date about who exactly is on the list of candidates.

Beyond Showalter, such names as infield coodinator Benji Gil, former Brewers/Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, and former Angels players like Torii Hunter, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the manager’s job, though it isn’t clear how many proper interviews has taken place.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote today that the Halos “plan to interview” Hunter, Erstad, and Salmon, which would seem to run counter to the idea that the club has already moved onto its group of finalists.  Regardless, Showalter seems to be firmly in the mix, and his track record would seemingly give him some advantage in the race, as Roenicke is the only other candidate with past experience as a big league manager.

  • The Phillies announced that Cesar Ramos will be the team’s new bullpen coach for the 2024 season.  Ramos has working in the Phillies organization for the last four seasons, and was the pitching coach for Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022-23.  Ramos is best known for his eight-year pitching career with the Padres, Rays, Angels, and Rangers from 2009-16.

Dick Drago Passes Away

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Former starting pitcher Dick Drago has passed away on Thursday at the age of 78, as noted by Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. Drago pitched for the Royals, Red Sox, Angels, Orioles, and Mariners throughout his big league career, which spanned 13 seasons from 1969 to 1981. The Royals and Red Sox both mourned the loss on X this morning, extending sympathies to Drago’s friends and family.

Drago’s big league career began as a member of the inaugural Royals team in 1969, a team for which he quickly emerged as one of the better starting options. Drago posted a 3.77 ERA with a 3.67 FIP across 200 2/3 innings of work during his rookie campaign, throwing 10 complete games and appearing in 41 with 26 starts. He largely repeated those results during the 1970 season with even more volume, pitching to a 3.75 ERA and 3.65 FIP across 240 innings of work.

The righty’s star shined brightest during the 1971 campaign, however. Across 35 appearances (34 starts) for Kansas City that year, Drago posted a 2.98 ERA with a nearly matching 2.99 FIP. He did that across 241 1/3 innings of work, recording 15 complete games with four shutouts among them. Drago’s performance led the Royals to the club’s first season above .500 in the young franchise’s history and earned him a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting that year while the trophy ultimately went to Vida Blue.

Drago ultimately spent two more seasons in Kansas City, pitching to a 3.58 ERA and 3.47 FIP across a combined 452 innings of work those seasons. In 1974, Drago began his first stint in Boston, which would only last two seasons. That included, of course, the club’s 1975 World Series run that saw them lose the World Series in seven games against the Reds. While Drago pitched just 72 2/3 innings of 3.84 ERA baseball with the Red Sox during the regular season that year, his contributions in four appearances out of the Boston bullpen during the playoffs were far more impressive: Drago allowed just one run in 8 2/3 innings of work across four appearances that postseason against the A’s and Reds.

After converting to relief work in the 1975 season Drago spent two seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Angels (for whom he gave up the final home run of Hank Aaron’s career in 1976) and the Orioles, with a 3.99 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 140 innings of work across those two seasons, before returning to Boston in 1978. His second stint with the club lasted three seasons, and saw him do some of his best work as a reliever: he posted identical 3.03 ERAs in back-to-back campaigns in ’78 and ’79 before reaching 100 innings pitched in a season for the first time since 1974, his first season with the Red Sox, during the 1980 campaign, his final in Boston.

Drago’s career then came to a close in 1981, after 39 appearances with the Mariners. Over his 13-season big league career, Drago posted a 3.62 ERA and 3.58 FIP with an above-average ERA+ of 103 across 1875 innings of work. He appeared in 519 games, struck out 987 batters, and accrued 108 wins throughout his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Drago’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Angels Decline Options On Aaron Loup, Eduardo Escobar

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The Angels announced that they have declined club options on left-hander Aaron Loup and infielder Eduardo Escobar. Both will now become free agents, with Loup receiving a $2.5MM buyout instead of a $7.5MM salary for 2024, while Escobar receives a buyout of $500K instead of a $9MM salary.

Neither move comes as a surprise. Loup posted a remarkable 0.95 ERA in 2021 and parlayed that into a two-year, $17MM deal going into 2022. His first year with the Halos was fine, resulting in a 3.84 ERA, but that figure jumped to 6.10 in 2023. There may have been some bad luck in his poor results this year, with a .373 batting average on balls in play and 63.6% strand rate, but his strikeout rate has also been declining. He fanned 26.1% of batters in that strong 2021 campaign but that rate dropped to 20% and then 19.5% in the two most recent seasons.  He also finished the 2023 campaign on the injured list with a left shoulder strain.

The Halos acquired Escobar in a midseason trade with the Mets. They hoped the veteran switch-hitter would stabilize an infield that had been wrecked by injury. It didn’t go as planned, with Escobar stumbling to a .219/.259/.303 slash in 189 plate appearances. Combined with a slow start in Queens, he managed just a .226/.269/.344 line over 100 games on the season.

Lefty relief and third base both stand as areas the Angels could try to address this offseason. They don’t have any left-handers who are guaranteed spots in the season-opening bullpen, with the likes of Kolton Ingram and Kenny Rosenberg projecting as their top options. Anthony Rendon is the ostensible starter at third base, although he’s coming off another disappointing year marred by injury.

Padres Considering Phil Nevin, Benji Gil As Managerial Candidates

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Former Angels manager Phil Nevin and Angels infield coordinator Benji Gil are on the Padres’ radar for interviews as the club continues its managerial search, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli (both links to X).  Nevin might interview this week while Gil “is in preliminary discussions” about a potential interview.

Nevin has plenty of Padres ties, as he lives just outside San Diego and played seven (1999-2005) of his 12 Major League seasons in a Padres uniform.  Since retiring from playing, Nevin has had a lengthy career as a coach and manager in the majors and minors, culminating in his first MLB managerial gig with the Angels over the last two seasons.  Taking over as Los Angeles’ interim skipper when Joe Maddon was fired in June 2022, Nevin was properly made the manager following the season, though given only a one-year contract.  Nevin posted an 119-149 overall record as the Angels’ manager, and he wasn’t given a new deal following the 2023 campaign as the Halos chose to instead look for a new dugout boss.

Gil has never managed at the Major League level, and has been on the Angels’ coaching staff for only the last two seasons.  Still, the 51-year-old Gil has the past experience of an eight-year playing career in the bigs, as well as some managerial experience outside of the affiliated minors.  Gil has worked as a manager in Mexican baseball, most notably helming Mexico’s national teams during the 2020 Summer Olympics and during the 2023 World Baseball Classic.  The Angels reportedly had interest in Gil as a possible candidate for their own managerial vacancy, though it isn’t yet known if the former infielder has sat down for a former interview with the Angels’ upper management.

In a sense, the two candidates represent the four (non-interim managers) who have run the Padres’ dugout during A.J. Preller’s tenure as the club’s president of baseball operations.  Nevin is a veteran baseball man with past managerial experience, like Bud Black (who Preller inherited Bud Black as his first skipper) and Bob Melvin (who managed the Padres over the last two seasons).  In between those hires, Preller went with Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, both first-time managers with relatively little coaching experience on a Major League staff.

This same dynamic exists between the other two known candidates for the San Diego job.  Bench coach Ryan Flaherty has never managed at the MLB level but has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, while senior associate Mike Shildt was the Cardinals’ skipper from 2018-21.  Flaherty and Shildt are considered the favorites to be the next Padres’ manager, though Preller said that the team would be exploring external candidates out of more than due diligence.  “We’re going to make sure we exhaust all the different possibilities to get the right choice….We want to try to get it right,” Preller said.

Ghiroli also notes that Eric Chavez is “no longer expected to be in the mix” after garnering some level of interest from the Padres in their search.  Chavez has long been seen as a possible future manager, and he has worked on the Mets’ staff for the last two seasons, including a bench coach role in 2023.  Since the Mets are themselves looking for a new manager to replace Buck Showalter, Chavez’s future in New York could well be in flux, though it appears he won’t be part of the Padres’ search.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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