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Angels Had Interest In Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader Earlier This Winter

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Despite his solid defense and lengthy track record at the position, rumors of the Angels moving Trout out of center field have been floated somewhat regularly in recent years, dating back to 2022 when former Angels skipper Joe Maddon told reporters that the club was considering playing Brandon Marsh as the club’s regular center fielder. Moving Trout to a corner or even DH isn’t without logic; after all, he’s seen his star fade somewhat in recent years due to a rash of injuries that left him to play just 237 games in the last three season, or less than half of the Angels’ contests in that time. While Trout appears as capable of handling the position as ever when on the field, it’s possible moving down the defensive spectrum could allow him to stay healthier and remain on the field for the Halos going forward.

According to Robert Murray of FanSided, the Angels had interest in center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader before they signed with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively. The news isn’t necessarily a surprise given the club’s reported interest in bolstering the club’s outfield mix with the likes of Michael A. Taylor and Adam Duvall. Taylor, in particular, fills a similar role to Bader and Kiermaier as a glove-first outfield option who offers a plus glove in center field and roughly league average offense.

That being said, both Bader and Kiermaier are elite defensive center fielders who have received at least semi-regular playing time throughout their careers. Given their status as regulars best suited for center field, the Angels’ interest in the duo is noteworthy even in spite of the fact that both players have already signed elsewhere, as it could indicate a willingness to move franchise face and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout out of center field. Trout, 32, has logged nearly 93% of his 12207 1/3 career innings on the outfield grass in center, and his glovework has continued to rate well even as he enters his 30s with +3 Outs Above Average in 82 games last year.

Despite his solid defense and lengthy track record at the position, rumors of the Angels moving Trout out of center field have been floated somewhat regularly in recent years, dating back to 2022 when former Angels skipper Joe Maddon told reporters that the club was considering playing Brandon Marsh as the club’s regular center fielder. Moving Trout to a corner or even DH isn’t without logic; after all, he’s seen his star fade somewhat in recent years due to a rash of injuries that left him to play just 237 games in the last three season, or less than half of the Angels’ contests in that time. While Trout appears as capable of handling the position as ever when on the field, it’s possible moving down the defensive spectrum could allow him to stay healthier and remain on the field for the Halos going forward.

Angels Outright Adam Kolarek

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The Angels have outrighted left-hander Adam Kolarek off their 40-man roster, the team announced.  The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Zach Plesac, whose one-year deal with the Halos is now official.

Kolarek is a recent signing in his own right, joining the Angels on a one-year deal worth $900K back in November.  Because Kolarek has been previously outrighted in his career, he would have the right to reject this assignment and re-enter free agency, though he would also be walking away from that $900K salary.  It seems like this transaction might be something of a paper move that gives Los Angeles some roster flexibility but won’t impede Kolarek’s path to competing for a bullpen job this coming spring.

The groundball specialist has a 3.62 ERA over his 149 1/3 innings in the majors, a tenure that includes a World Series ring with the 2020 Dodgers.  Kolarek had a 3.07 ERA over 108 1/3 innings with the Rays and Dodgers from 2018-20, though some control problems have both limited his results and his time in the majors altogether, as he has posted a 4.68 ERA over 32 2/3 frames since the start of the 2021 season.  Kolarek spent that time with the Athletics, another stint with the Dodgers, and a brief four-game stretch with the Mets last season, plus some time in the Braves farm system without a big league call-up.

Angels Sign Zach Plesac

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TODAY: The deal is official, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (X link) reports that Plesac signed a one-year contract worth $1MM in guaranteed money.

DECEMBER 30, 10:34pm: Murray reports that it’s a major league deal between the Angels and Plesac, though the specific terms of the contract are still not known.

10:14pm: The Angels are in agreement with right-hander Zach Plesac on a deal, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that a deal between the two sides was close.

Plesac, 29 next month, made just five starts for the Guardians last offseason before being demoted to Triple-A and eventually outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in June. The right-hander posted a disastrous 7.59 ERA across 21 1/3 innings of work in those five contests, and his performance at the Triple-A level last season did little to inspire confidence: Plesac mustered just a 6.08 ERA with a 17.9% strikeout rate in 19 appearances at the level. While those brutal numbers surely make Plesac something of a surprising choice for any club to add to their pitching staff to those unfamiliar with the right-hander, it’s worth noting that Plesac had established himself as a solid middle-to-back of the rotation starter in the years prior to his disastrous 2023 campaign.

Initially drafted in the 12th round of the 2016 draft, Plesac made his big league debut as a 24-year-old back in 2019, when he made 19 starts in the majors for Cleveland. At the time, he had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter with a 3.81 ERA (126 ERA+) across 21 starts in his rookie season even as his 4.94 FIP and lackluster 18.5% strikeout rate both left much to be desired. Plesac then took a major leap forward during the shortened 2020 season. The right-hander posted an incredible 2.28 ERA that was 96% better than league average by measure of ERA+ and a strong 3.39 FIP.

During the truncated campaign, Plesac’s peripherals caught up to his performance as he struck out 27.7% of batters faced while walking just 2.9%. That strikeout-to-walk ratio placed Plesac between Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw for the 13th best figure among starters that year, while only Kyle Hendricks and Marco Gonzales allowed less free passes. The strong performance set him up to be a key cog in Cleveland’s rotation for years to come headed into the 2021 season.

Unfortunately for both the Guardians and Plesac, that future as a key piece of Cleveland’s pitching corps did not come to pass. Plesac instead reverted to his previous, low-strikeout rate form in 2021 and has stayed that way ever since. Unlike his rookie campaign in 2019, however, his results fell back down to Earth alongside his peripherals. The diminished results with a 4.49 ERA (90 ERA+) and a 4.59 FIP across 274 1/3 innings between 2021 and 2022. Although his walk rate remained at a strong 6.2% during that time, he struck out a measly 17.2% of batters faced. That figure was the fifth-worst punchout rate among starters with at least 250 innings pitched between the two seasons.

Of course, it’s worth noting that even in those 2021 and ’22 seasons where Plesac offered diminished production relative to his previous heights, the right-hander’s results were only around 10% below league average. A team can do far worse than 25 starts at that level of production for their fifth- or sixth-best starting option; 31 starters posted an ERA- of 110 or higher while throwing at least 100 innings in the majors last season, or more than one per team in the league. If the Angels believe Plesac’s 2023 campaign was an anomaly and his 2021-22 performance is a more accurate baseline, the right-hander could be a valuable depth option for a club that saw 14 different pitchers draw starts in 2023.

After losing Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers in free agency earlier this month, the Halos have plenty of work to do as they look to retool their roster and return to contention in 2024 on the heels of back-to-back 89-loss seasons. Though the specific terms being discussed between Plesac and Anaheim are not yet clear, a deal for Plesac figures to be either a minor league pact or perhaps a relatively inexpensive major league deal that won’t prevent the Angels from making other additions to the roster, including in the rotation. Either way, Plesac has options remaining headed into 2024 and would likely compete for a spot in the Angels’ starting rotation this spring before potentially starting the season as depth at the Triple-A level should he be unable to secure a starting spot.

Six Teams Interested In Ryan Brasier

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Free agent reliever Ryan Brasier is drawing interest from at least six different teams, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Goold writes that the Cardinals and Dodgers are involved in the market, while Heyman writes that the Angels, Cubs, Orioles, and Rangers also have interest.

Brasier has already pitched for both Los Angeles teams, as he made his MLB debut with nine innings for the Angels back in 2013 and then seemingly got his career back on track with the Dodgers last season.  The right-hander posted a 6.16 ERA over 83 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2021 and in the first two months of the 2022 campaign before he was released, and then signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in June.

Secondary metrics (especially in 2022) indicated that Brasier was pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and the turn-around came once he donned Dodger Blue.  L.A. selected Brasier’s contract in late June and he was almost untouchable the rest of the way, posting an 0.70 ERA over 38 2/3 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen.  Brasier had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and 51.1% grounder rate as a Dodger — all major improvements over his numbers in Boston last year, though Brasier also enjoyed a .183 BABIP in Los Angeles, as opposed to a .344 BABIP with the Red Sox.

As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings explored in August, Brasier started throwing a cutter for the first time in his career and the results were immediate.  Not only did batters hit only .152 against Brasier’s new offering, he noted that “having another pitch to get guys off certain other pitches.  But (while) working on the cutter, some other stuff started to come back.”

The cutter’s effectiveness adds yet another wrinkle to the up-and-down nature of Brasier’s career.  After his cup of coffee with the Angels in 2013, he didn’t return to the majors until 2018, as the righty spent the interim years pitching with the Athletics’ Triple-A team and with the Hiroshima Carp in Japan.  Brasier returned to North America by signing a minors deal with the Red Sox in 2018, and he unexpectedly emerged as a key bullpen weapon for the eventual World Series champions.  Brasier had a 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 regular-season innings for the Sox that season, plus a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 postseason frames.

The remainder of Brasier’s time in Boston was much shakier, as he ended up with a 4.55 ERA over his 209 2/3 career innings in a Red Sox uniform.  As he now enters his age-36 season, however, Brasier again seems like an intriguing relief option given how well he pitched with the Dodgers.  His age and somewhat inconsistent track record could limit him to a one-year contract, yet with so much interest in his market, Brasier might be able to land some type of option for the 2025 season depending on how sold teams are with his late-season performance.

Angels, Padres, Pirates Interested In Michael A. Taylor

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Free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor is drawing interest from the Angels, Padres and Pirates, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that the Halos are also considering Adam Duvall as a free agent outfield target.

Taylor should have the broader market of the two veterans. His ability to play an excellent center field makes him a strong fit on a number of teams. He could operate as a glove-first regular for clubs without a strong in-house option in center or serve as a high-end fourth outfield target for others. The Dodgers, Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mets have also been linked to Taylor earlier in the offseason. Toronto and New York subsequently signed Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, respectively, likely taking them out of the mix.

Boston acquired Tyler O’Neill as a right-handed hitter with the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. That could reduce their urgency on Taylor, but Murray suggests they’re still involved. He adds that a return to the Twins, with whom Taylor spent the 2023 campaign, also remains a possibility.

For teams that aren’t going to entertain a run at Cody Bellinger, Taylor is the top center fielder on the open market. He remains a high-end defender even as he enters his age-33 season. Taylor has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his career, but he’s coming off one of his better offensive showings. He popped a career-best 21 home runs in just 388 plate appearances. Taylor still struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and hit .220 with a meager .278 on-base percentage. Yet the defense and the ability to run into 15-20 homers while hitting in the bottom third of a lineup makes him a serviceable regular.

The Angels have a projected outfield of Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Mickey Moniak. Ward missed the final couple months of last year after sustaining facial fractures on a frightening hit-by-pitch. Trout hasn’t reached 120 games or 500 plate appearances in a season since 2019 because of various injuries. Moniak posted solid bottom line results last year, hitting .280/.307/.495 through 323 plate appearances. However, that came with a 35% strikeout rate and a 2% walk percentage that are even worse than Taylor’s career baselines.

Moniak is a clear regression candidate who is better suited in a fourth outfield capacity. Even if the Halos are optimistic about his ability to produce against right-handed pitching, the former #1 overall pick has a .172/.200/.230 slash in 91 career plate appearances versus lefties. The righty-hitting Taylor has been better against southpaws than against right-handed pitching, as one would expect. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .257/.317/.455 hitter with the platoon advantage.

Duvall also hits from the right side. While he has had reverse platoon splits in recent years, he’s a better overall offensive player than either Moniak or Taylor — albeit with a similar low-OBP, power profile. He hit 21 homers in 353 plate appearances for the Red Sox last season, running a .247/.303/.531 slash. Duvall can play some center field but is better suited for a corner spot entering his age-35 season.

As for the other clubs recently linked to Taylor, each of Pittsburgh, San Diego and Minnesota are viable fits. The Padres need to bring in multiple outfielders after trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. They’d seemingly prefer to keep Fernando Tatis Jr. in right field rather than moving him up the middle. José Azocar (a career .249/.292/.341 hitter) and prospect Jakob Marsee are the top internal options in a center field position that requires an outside pickup.

Minnesota leaned heavily on Taylor last year as knee injuries kept Byron Buxton to designated hitter. While the Twins have expressed hope that Buxton could handle outfield work again in 2024, they can’t count on him to make 120+ starts at the position.

The Pirates could turn center field back to Jack Suwinski, although public metrics were mixed on his defensive performance. Bryan Reynolds can handle center on occasions but fits best in left. Right field is a question mark, with trade pickup Edward Olivares likely battling Joshua Palacios for work. Andrew McCutchen will see the majority of his time at designated hitter while rotating through the corners. Signing Taylor could allow the Bucs to kick Suwinski to right field and boast a strong defensive outfield.

Kiermaier and Bader each signed one-year pacts worth $10.5MM. Taylor could be in line for something similar, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if he landed a two-year deal at a lower annual value but a slightly better overall guarantee.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

Mets, Angels Interested In J.D. Martinez

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The Mets and Angels are “eyeing” J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman had previously floated both clubs as speculative fits for Martinez but this report seems to point to something with a bit more backing.

Martinez, now 36, was also a free agent last winter. He eventually signed with the Dodgers for one year and $10MM, though he later suggested he could have found more money if he held out a bit longer. “This was an offer that came up seeing if it was something I was interested in doing,” Martinez said in March to Rob Bradford of WEEI. “Obviously, it was a little bit of a pay cut, but if I held up maybe I could have gotten more. We were confident about that. But at the same time I wanted a team that was going to be in October, be in the swing of things all year and give me a chance to win.”

It also allowed him to reunite with Robert Van Scoyoc, the Dodgers hitting coach who previously made Martinez into a premium major league hitter. Joining the Dodgers and reuniting with Van Scoyoc went very well, as Martinez ended up having a strong season. He hit 33 home runs and slashed .271/.321/.572 for a wRC+ of 135, with both that home run tally and the wRC+ figure his personal best since 2019.

Despite all of that, a reunion with the Dodgers is not in the cards. The club didn’t issue him a qualifying offer because they wanted to keep their designated hitter slot open for a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. Now that they have successfully added Ohtani to the roster, there’s no real way to fit Martinez into their plans. He’s capable of playing the outfield on occasion but logged just 12 innings there this year and none at all in 2022.

Martinez will thus be looking for a club that can accommodate a full-time DH. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are two clubs that are open to such an addition and both have been connected to Martinez in rumors, but the Angels and Mets are also viable landing spots.

For the Halos, they have been using their DH slot on Ohtani in recent years. Now that he’s heading to the Dodgers, that spot is open for someone new. They will be facing the challenge of trying to build a competitive team without Ohtani, something they weren’t able to do with him. Martinez is one of the few available free agents that can come close to making up for Ohtani’s lost offensive production.

Though there are reasons why he may not be a perfect fit. Having Ohtani locked into the DH spot in recent years has prevented the club from using that role to give other players a breather. They have several players on the roster with injury concerns, such as Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, who could perhaps benefit from more semi rest days. The Angels would have to weigh the value of adding Martinez to the lineup against that loss of flexibility. On top of that, the current squad skews right-handed. Luis Rengifo is a switch-hitter and then Mickey Moniak and Nolan Schanuel are lefties, but the other projected regulars are all righties.

If they did decide to make a play for him, they should have plenty of room in the budget. Their competitive balance tax figure is currently at $168MM for next year, per Roster Resource. That puts them almost $70MM below the lowest tax threshold of $237MM. MLBTR predicted Martinez for a contract of $40MM over two years, an average annual value of $20MM. The Angels also have some work to do in addressing their pitching staff but there’s space for a Martinez deal if they want to do it.

For the Mets, their regular DH this year was Daniel Vogelbach, though he was non-tendered after a somewhat middling campaign. That leaves their best internal option for the DH spot as DJ Stewart, who shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Martinez. He finished 2023 on a heater, hitting 11 home runs in 58 games after having his contract selected in July. However, he has been inconsistent in his career, having hit .213/.327/.400 prior to 2023 for a wRC+ of 99. He can play the outfield but is considered a poor defender. He had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, though his hot finish to 2023 led the Mets to tender him a $1.38MM contract for 2024. If Martinez were to be brought aboard, Stewart could be nudged into a part-time role as a platoon guy/pinch-hitter.

Since Martinez will be limited to a short-term deal on account of his age, that could fit with the Mets and their current approach. They are treating 2024 as a sort of transition year, with the aim of having a greater chance at contending in 2025 and beyond. That doesn’t mean they are overly concerned about the budget, however. Their CBT figure is currently pegged at $298MM by Roster Resource, already above the fourth tax line of $297MM. They took on money in the Adrian Houser/Tyrone Taylor deal and have given modest guarantees on one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin.

As a third-time payor that is over the final CBT tier, any additional spending from the Mets would come with a massive 110% tax. But the tax bill for the year isn’t calculated until the end of the season. If they end up out of contention again, they may end up selling off pieces prior to the 2024 deadline. Pete Alonso, José Quintana and Severino are impending free agents making eight figures next year, and Martinez could potentially be on that list as well.

The Mets have also shown a willingness to eat money in deadline deals in order to improve the prospect return, doing so in both the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades a few months back. If the club decides Martinez is a good fit for the roster and could perhaps be a nice trade chip by the summer, they would likely fork over the money to get him signed.

Whether that’s something Martinez would be interested in is a different matter. As quoted up top, he chose the Dodgers in part for the chance to be playing in October. Both the Mets and Angels are less clear-cut contenders right now than the Dodgers were a year ago. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are coming off a World Series appearance while the Jays have made the postseason in three of the past four seasons, giving those clubs stronger cases to pitch to Martinez in terms of competitive chances. Though it’s unknown what kind of financial arrangements each club is willing to consider, which will undoubtedly be a factor in his decision making as well.

Andrelton Simmons Retires

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Four-time Gold Glove winner Andrelton Simmons is retiring, his representatives at ISE Baseball announced on Instagram earlier this week. The defensive stalwart last appeared in the majors in July 2022.

Simmons was a second-round draftee of the Braves in 2010 out of an Oklahoma junior college. There was some thought he might be better suited as a pitcher at the time thanks to his elite arm strength. Atlanta stuck with him as a shortstop, where prospect evaluators projected Simmons as a plus defender. He exceeded even the loftiest reviews of his glove, quite likely becoming the best defensive infielder of his generation.

The Braves first called him up in June 2012, a little before his 23rd birthday. Simmons capably held down shortstop from that point forward, putting up roughly league average hitting with strong defensive reviews. He started that year’s Wild Card game and cemented himself as an everyday player for the better part of the next decade.

Simmons took what would be a career-high 658 plate appearances the following season. He connected on a personal-best 17 homers with a .248/.296/.396 slash line. While that wasn’t particularly imposing offense, he rated as a staggering 30 runs above average with the glove. That earned him his first Gold Glove and down-ballot MVP support and helped the Braves to an NL East title.

The following offseason, Atlanta signed Simmons to a seven-year extension. His $58MM guarantee established a new record for players with between one and two years of MLB service. Simmons’ power dipped over the next two seasons, but he continued to rack up eye-popping metrics and highlights on defense. He won a second Gold Glove in 2014 and arguably should’ve received the award again the following year.

Atlanta missed the postseason in both seasons, however, kicking off a rebuild. During the 2015-16 offseason, the Braves dealt Simmons to the Angels for a prospect package headlined by Sean Newcomb. While the left-hander had an inconsistent tenure in Atlanta, Simmons spent the next few seasons offering his typical combination of slightly below-average hitting and superlative defense.

He’d win two more Gold Gloves in Orange County, finishing in the top 15 in AL MVP balloting in 2017 and ’18. He was credited with 41 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017, easily the highest single-season mark by a shortstop since the statistic was introduced in 2002. Simmons owns three of the top 10 and six of the top 30 DRS grades on record at the infield’s most demanding position. Unsurprisingly, he easily holds the top career mark among shortstops over the past two decades. His estimated 201 runs saved in more than 10,000 innings is 82 runs higher than second-place finisher Adam Everett.

Simmons remained with the Halos through 2020. He signed a $10.5MM deal with the Twins for the 2021 campaign. While he continued to play stellar defense, his offense cratered. He hit .223/.283/.274 in 131 games, setting the stage for a modest $4MM deal with the Cubs. Simmons mustered only a .173/.244/.187 line in 35 contests for Chicago and was released midseason.

He didn’t sign with a major league team from that point forward. The Curacao native represented the Netherlands in last spring’s World Baseball Classic, as he had in 2013 and ’17. He saw action at third base in an infield also comprising Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop and Xander Bogaerts. Simmons went 2-11 in four games to close his playing career.

Simmons appeared in parts of 11 MLB seasons. He tallied more than 4,800 plate appearances over 1,226 contests, hitting .263/.312/.366 with 70 home runs. He was one of the game’s more reliable contact bats, striking out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances. Simmons will be better remembered as one of the best defensive shortstops the game has ever seen.

FanGraphs valued his career around 25 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference credited him with 37 WAR. B-Ref pegs his earnings just under $72MM. MLBTR congratulates Simmons on his excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

Red Sox, Angels Reportedly Interested In Teoscar Hernandez

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TODAY: Hernandez and the Red Sox have “been discussing potential contract parameters” but no formal offer has been made, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  The team’s “engagement with Hernandez picked up” after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, as the Sox had been one of the other suitors monitoring Yamamoto’s market.

DECEMBER 22: The Red Sox and Angels are both showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Hernandez’s market has been fairly quiet since the offseason started last month, as slugger Shohei Ohtani dominated the positional market for much of the offseason to this point while the outfield market has seen most of its activity come from trades, with players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Jarred Kelenic changing hands.

Hernandez, 31, is coming off a down season at the plate during which he slashed just .258/.305/.435 (105 wRC+) as a member of the Mariners. With that being said, the slugger still managed to crush 26 home runs last season and entered 2023 with a whopping .283/.333/.519 slash line since the start of the 2020 campaign. That slash line is good for a 133 wRC+, tied with Austin Riley for the 20th best figure in the majors across the 2020-22 seasons. With a stable, above-average offensive floor and a tantalizing, All Star-caliber ceiling, Hernandez ranked 12th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract.

Either team is a fairly plausible fit for Hernandez. The Angels have a fairly healthy outfield mix that features superstar Mike Trout in center field with Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak as the club’s top corner options, backed up by the likes of Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo. That being said, Rosenthal also reports that Rengifo, Ward, and Moniak are all garnering trade interest from other clubs. Moving even one of those players could provide an open for Hernandez to take a corner outfield spot on an everyday basis. Even if the club decides not to move on from any of the bats currently in its outfield mix, the addition of Hernandez and his reliable 25 to 30 home run power would go a long way to replacing the 44 dingers Ohtani smacked this past season.

As for Boston, the club shipped Verdugo to the Bronx earlier in the offseason before replacing him with Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. That leaves the club with O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Rob Refsnyder to mix-and-match with alongside Masataka Yoshida, who figures to split time between left field and DH on a daily basis next season. While O’Neill and Duran both have everyday potential and a youngster such as Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela could emerge as a quality option, adding a reliable bat to the outfield could provide a major boost to a Red Sox offense that lost Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency last month. Boston’s hitting corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 99 wRC+ last season and Hernandez’s power potential could be a catalyst for a club that generated just 63 home runs from its outfield mix in 2023, the seventh-worst figure in the majors.

As Rosenthal notes, Boston appears to be focused on acquiring a front-of-the-rotation starter at the moment. The Angels, meanwhile, were connected to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell recently and have reportedly been aggressive on the trade market in hopes of upgrading their pitching staff. Even as run prevention appears to be the priority of both clubs headed into 2024, that’s unlikely to preclude either club from adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber. Roster Resource projects the Angels for a 2024 payroll $62MM lower than their 2023 figure, while the Red Sox project for a payroll $67MM under their all-time high payroll (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) of just over $236MM. That should leave both organizations with plenty of payroll room for both Hernandez (whose aforementioned contract projection from MLBTR carries an average annual value of $20MM) and a front-end starter such as Snell or Jordan Montgomery, to say nothing of the availability of cheaper options like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market.

Of course, Hernandez is hardly the only right-handed bat of note who either club could look to add this offseason. That being said, other options such as Turner, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins all seem likely to require regular use of the DH slot. While that doesn’t appear to be a problem for the Angels, who have previously been connected to Martinez this offseason, the Red Sox seem poised to rotate between bat-first players like Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas at DH. The acquisition of any of these alternative bats would likely force Boston to play all three of those players in the field on a nearly everyday basis, complicating their defensive outlook significantly.

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