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Looking For A Match In A Trade

Looking For A Match In A Clint Frazier Trade

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In July 2016, when the Yankees were on the periphery of the American League playoff race, they made the bold decision to trade superstar reliever Andrew Miller to the Indians for four players. Outfielder Clint Frazier and left-hander Justus Sheffield, two top 100 prospects, headlined an impressive-looking haul for the Yankees. The Yankees’ hope then was that Frazier and Sheffield would eventually turn into indispensable pieces of their 25-man roster, but three years later, we now know it may not happen. Sheffield’s already out of the organization, which flipped him to the Mariners last winter in a package for two years of control over front-line starter James Paxton. Frazier remains, though his place with the franchise could be on shaky ground.

Frazier, who Yankees general manager Brian Cashman once said possesses “legendary bat speed,” has already racked up his most significant major league playing time this season. Returning from a concussion-marred 2018, the 24-year-old has slashed a solid .283/.330/.513 (118 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a .230 ISO in 2019 plate appearances. Although that’s starting-caliber offensive production on your typical team, a healthy Yankees lineup is anything but ordinary.

The acquisition of designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners last weekend helped push Frazier out of New York, which subsequently sent him back to Triple-A Scranton. With Encarnacion and Luke Voit at DH/first and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin in the outfield, the team had little choice but to take advantage of its ability to option Frazier. Even with Maybin now going to the injured list, the Yankees may not recall Frazier because he’d mostly ride the bench.

Frazier was understandably displeased with the Yankees when they demoted him, though it seems they still hold him in high regard. Owner Hal Steinbrenner voiced his support for Frazier this week, saying he’s going to be “a big part of this team going forward.” Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s words won’t quell the trade rumblings hovering around Frazier as the July 31 deadline nears. The Yankees don’t have to trade Frazier, who’s not on track to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign, but they may not be able to find consistent playing time for him next year either. While Gardner and Maybin could be gone by then, most or all of Encarnacion (if his $20MM club option is exercised), Voit, Judge, Stanton and Hicks will return in prominent roles.

With little space for Frazier in the near term, the Yankees’ best bet may be to flip him for help this year in an effort to boost a World Series-contending roster. Adding up Frazier’s youth, production in the minors and majors, and controllable status, he’d be a valuable commodity on the trade market. New York’s known to be hunting for a middle- or front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher – something it may be able to acquire by dangling Frazier in talks with other clubs. The Yankees don’t boast a high-end farm system, which would make it all the more logical for them to use Frazier as trade currency this summer.

If the Yankees are going to trade Frazier in the next month-plus, it reportedly won’t be for someone who’s due to become a free agent. Should we take that at face value, it would rule out a deal involving Frazier and Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner – this year’s most hyped rental starter. Regardless, Bumgarner would have to waive his partial no-trade clause for the Yankees.

The Giants’ outfield is abysmal, which would seem to make Frazier a fit, though it’s still unclear whether they’d choose him over another team’s offer that could be fronted by a top 100 prospect(s). After all, the vast outfield at Oracle Park in San Francisco is no place for a weak defender. Frazier has been that to this point. Factoring in his nationally televised misadventures in right field against the Red Sox on June 3, Frazier has posted minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 319 innings as an outfielder this season. Those struggles aren’t anything new for Frazier, who’s at minus-12 DRS with minus-8.4 UZR during his 686-inning big league career as an outfielder.

Bumgarner’s the most proven starter among likely trade chips, but he’s not the most valuable. That honor belongs to Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s enjoying a breakout season, makes a paltry 2019 salary ($2.6MM) and isn’t set for free agency until after 2022. For all of those reasons, Frazier won’t be enough to headline a package for Boyd, who should be able to net the Tigers a bounty headed by premium prospects. Besides, considering the Tigers don’t want to continue their relationship with defensively limited, offensively gifted corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, it’s fair to wonder how much they’d value a similar player in Frazier.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s AL Central rental rival in Cleveland may have its own coveted trade chip in righty Trevor Bauer. The Indians are very much in the wild-card race, yet there has still been ample speculation about a Bauer trade. He’s on a $13MM salary right now and controllable through 2020. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote Thursday that a potential Yankees acquisition of Bauer “would probably be centered around” Frazier. There’s logic behind that – the Indians are already familiar with Frazier, who’d be able to help their woeful offense on a cheap salary right away. However, Frazier alone wouldn’t be able to pry Bauer and his year and a half of remaining control out of Cleveland.

It seems the Yankees would stand a better chance of using Frazier to net Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, who, like Bauer, is under control through 2020. Stroman doesn’t have Bauer’s upside, but he’s enjoying a fine bounce-back season at an opportune time for rebuilding Toronto. The fact that Stroman’s earning a reasonable $7.4MM will only help the Blue Jays’ cause when they inevitably move him. Stroman would bring back promising prospects in a trade, but if the Jays want a more established player, Frazier’s bat would fit in an outfield whose only productive full-timer has been Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Although New York and Toronto play in the same division, that wouldn’t serve as a deterrent to a trade. These teams are just a year removed from a deadline deal which saw the Yankees acquire starter J.A. Happ for infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury and outfielder Billy McKinney.

Because we’re discussing high-end starters who’ve come up in trade rumors, we would be remiss not to mention Nationals super-ace Max Scherzer and Diamondbacks No. 1 man Zack Greinke. John Harper of SNY.tv reported Friday the Yankees would love to acquire the still-dominant Scherzer (who wouldn’t?), though it seems like much more of a pipe dream than a realistic hope on their part. For what it’s worth, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo shot down the idea of dealing the soon-to-be 35-year-old Scherzer last weekend. Even if Rizzo were to reverse course, Frazier wouldn’t come close to leading a package for Scherzer.

Frazier would have a better chance to help the Yankees land Greinke, but there are obvious roadblocks standing in the way of that. For one, thanks in part to the 35-year-old Greinke’s terrific production, the Diamondbacks are hanging in the NL playoff race. Still, if the team attempts to trade Greinke, his contract and 15-team NTC would complicate matters. Greinke, signed through 2021, is still owed upward of $90MM (including deferrals). He’ll also count $34MM-plus per season against the luxury tax until his contract runs out. If the D-backs were to assume a large portion of Greinke’s remaining deal, maybe they and the Yankees could work something out. Greinke would still have to sign off on a trade to the Bronx after that. All things considered, a swap around Frazier and Greinke looks like a long shot, to say the least.

More starters than the above figure to be available around the deadline, but ideal matches look hard to find from the Yankees’ perspective. For instance, Texas lefty Mike Minor would give the Yankees what they want – an effective starter who’s not a rental – though he probably won’t wind up on the move with the Rangers in playoff contention. The same may apply to one of Greinke’s D-backs rotation mates, Robbie Ray.

On paper, Frazier looks like a strong candidate to join a new organization by the end of July. However, in trading Frazier, the Yankees would likely need to acquire someone who would provide a noticeable boost to their World Series chances. We’ll find out soon whether they’ll be able to pull off that difficult feat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Marcus Stroman Trade

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Even with Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner factored in, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman may end up as the most valuable starter on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. Like Bumgarner, Stroman has established himself as a legitimate major league starter. But while Bumgarner’s set to become a free agent after the season, the 28-year-old Stroman’s under wraps through 2020. Furthermore, on a $6.3MM salary this season and a to-be-determined arbitration salary next year, Stroman doesn’t come at a prohibitive price tag.

Since he debuted in 2014 with the Jays, who selected him 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, Stroman has pitched to a 3.80 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.23 K/9 and 2.57 BB/9 in 127 appearances (121 starts) and 741 innings. Those numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but Stroman’s a two-time 200-inning pitcher whose groundball percentage (59.8) ranks second among starters over the course of his career. And Stroman’s now amid a season in which he has recorded a terrific 2.84 ERA/3.48 FIP with 6.99 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 58.1 percent grounder mark across 13 starts and 76 frames.

The fact that Stroman’s on pace for another 200-inning season is key considering he amassed a mere 102 1/3 during an injury-shortened 2018. Stroman’s also just a few years removed from missing nearly all of 2015 with a torn ACL in his left knee, but the good news is that he hasn’t battled any significant arm problems in his time in the bigs.

With Toronto near the bottom of the league right now and unlikely to contend in 2020, Stroman stands out as its most logical trade chip. Stroman’s time up north may conclude this summer as a result. With that being the case, we’ll take a look at a slew of potential suitors (listed alphabetically). Based on the latest farm system rankings from Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, some of these teams are in better position than others to win a possible Stroman sweepstakes…

  • Angels: The 2020 Angels should get back injured starter Shohei Ohtani, who’d be a massive upgrade over what they have now, but they can’t count on him to eat up a lot of innings in his return from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney haven’t been the most durable starters either, and Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez and Jaime Barria are largely unproven in the majors. Based on all of that, Stroman would fit in the Angels’ starting staff next year. He’d also aid in their push for a playoff spot this season.
  • Athletics: Injuries have sapped the Athletics of starters dating back to last year, but they still made the playoffs in 2018 and are within striking distance of wild-card position at the moment. The A’s are scheduled to get some rotation reinforcements back in the coming months, which could dampen interest in Stroman, though he’d likely better their postseason chances this year while taking care of one-fifth of their starting staff for 2020. By then, free agents-to-be Brett Anderson and Marco Estrada could be out of the organization.
  • Astros: Despite its resounding success in the standings, Houston hasn’t been able to find a capable fifth starter to slot in with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock this year. Looking forward to 2020, Cole, Miley and Collin McHugh could leave in free agency. Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from 2018 Tommy John surgery by then, but there would still be a place for Stroman.
  • Braves: The good news is that the Braves aren’t at risk of losing any starters in free agency during the winter. The bad news is that their current starting mix hasn’t been all that effective outside of Mike Soroka. Even Max Fried, who burst out of the gates this year, has come to Earth of late. It’s no wonder they’re going after free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel. Signing him may make a Stroman trade unnecessary in the estimation of Atlanta’s front office.
  • Brewers: Even though their rotation has been less than stellar this year, the reigning NL Central champion Brewers have a realistic shot to win their division again. Stroman would help Milwaukee’s cause for this season, and he’d take care of a rotation spot for the small-market club in 2020.
  • Cardinals: The Redbirds’ rotation has been a disappointment this year, which explains their interest in Keuchel. Let’s say the Cards do land Keuchel on a multiyear contract. Their rotation still wouldn’t be set for this year or next season. No one from their starting quintet has been particularly good this season, and Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha are each set to become free agents.
  • Cubs: Chicago wouldn’t be in the driver’s seat to acquire Stroman this summer because there’s no clear opening in its rotation right now. Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish are either locks or strong bets to retain their spots. But the Cubs may need to replace Hamels, an impending by free agent, by 2020. Stroman would offer comparable production for a much lower price. That’s important for the luxury tax-minded Cubs.
  • Diamondbacks: Considering they probably won’t make the playoffs, it’s up in the air whether the Diamondbacks will buy this summer; if they do, though, a Stroman acquisition would make sense going into next year. He’d occupy a place in an impressive-looking 2020 staff with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and, if they return to health, Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker. Otherwise, Merrill Kelly could continue in place of Weaver or Walker.
  • Dodgers: Considering the Dodgers are oozing with quality starters, don’t count on a Stroman acquisition. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill could leave as free agents thereafter, though, so let’s not fully rule out LA.
  • Mets: Team management has stuck by much-maligned fifth starter Jason Vargas, who has been outstanding of late, so it may not feel the need to part with prospects for Stroman or any other rotation piece. Starting depth is lacking in New York right now, however, and both Vargas and Zack Wheeler might be gone by next season.
  • Nationals: Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin are guaranteed to return in 2019, which locks in an elite one-two punch. And Stephen Strasburg will probably be back, though there’s a chance he’ll opt out of his contract. Even if Strasburg sticks around, there would be room for Stroman now and next season to slot in ahead of Anibal Sanchez at the back of the Nats’ rotation.
  • Phillies: If the Phillies are going to maintain their lead in the NL East this season, they’ll likely need more from their starting staff. Aaron Nola hasn’t followed up on his exemplary 2018 performance, Jake Arrieta’s not what he used to be, and nobody from the Zach Eflin–Nick Pivetta–Jerad Eickhoff trio inspires a ton of confidence.
  • Pirates: The Buccos have been active in the trade market for starters in recent years, evidenced by their Cole deal with the Astros and their acquisition of Chris Archer from the Rays. The low-budget team was able to swing a trade for Archer because of his affordability. Stroman would give the Pirates another reasonably priced option next year along with Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and perhaps Mitch Keller. However, whether it would be logical for a middling Pittsburgh team to rob from its farm system for just over a year of control over Stroman is highly debatable.
  • Rangers: As noted on Wednesday, the wild-card contending Rangers are getting by with a relatively untrustworthy rotation this season. Even if Texas isn’t a real contender at the moment, it’ll aim for a playoff berth in 2020. Stroman would contribute to its cause.
  • Rays: No one would accuse opener-loving Tampa Bay of having enough traditional starters, and even the low-budget Rays would likely be able to afford Stroman. If everyone’s healthy, a rotation led by Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Stroman could be a force.
  • Reds: Although Cincinnati can probably forget about a playoff spot for this year, Stroman would help replace impending free agents Tanner Roark and Alex Wood (who hasn’t even pitched this season) in 2020. That said, Stroman to Cincy seems like a long shot because playoff-caliber teams need him more right now and would likely outbid the Reds.
  • Red Sox: Boston’s rotation hasn’t been great in 2019, nor is its starting five etched in stone for next year. Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez will return, but Rick Porcello’s slated to reach free agency.
  • Rockies: Colorado’s rotation has taken enormous steps backward since 2018, thanks in part to former Cy Young contender’s Kyle Freeland’s fall from grace. Even if the Rox expect the demoted Freeland to rebound by next year, there would still be a place for Stroman in their rotation. As of now, German Marquez and Jon Gray look like the only sure bets for 2020.
  • Padres: Not only has San Diego been connected to Stroman on the rumor mill dating back to the winter, but its rotation certainly hasn’t been flawless since then. Considering those factors, the Padres may be the favorites to acquire Stroman.
  • Twins: Minnesota has sprinted to one of the league’s best records this year thanks in part to righties Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, but they’re headed toward free agency in the offseason. Stroman would replace one of them in 2020; in the meantime, he’d give the Twins another legit starter alongside Odorizzi, Gibson, Jose Berrios and Martin Perez. Michael Pineda hasn’t really answered the bell in his return from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet another Twins starter who’s not under control beyond this season.
  • White Sox: At 29-32, Chicago has been a surprisingly respectable team relative to expectations. The franchise’s long-running playoff drought’s still likely to continue, though it may push for contention next year. Enter Stroman? He’d offer a nice complement to Lucas Giolito, which has been sorely lacking this season. Free agent-to-be Ivan Nova may not return in 2020, while Reynaldo Lopez has failed to build on a promising 2018. Other than that, the White Sox are waiting for Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech to recover from Tommy John surgery and for high-end prospect Dylan Cease to work his way to the majors.
  • Yankees: New York could use an upgrade in its rotation now, which Stroman might be able to provide, and its starting five may not be set for next year. Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Domingo German are on track to return. On paper, that’s enough, but it would require general manager Brian Cashman to regard Happ and German as locks for 2020. Meanwhile, the retiring CC Sabathia won’t be back.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Madison Bumgarner Trade

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It’s safe to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner will be one of the hottest commodities available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Bumgarner – set to turn 30 the day after the deadline (Aug. 1) – is among the game’s most accomplished hurlers in both the regular season and the playoffs, and he’s not under contract past this season. Thanks to the latter point, the out-of-contention Giants may elect to part with Bumgarner, who has been with the organization since it chose him 10th overall in the 2007 draft.

Going back to his 2010 debut in the majors, Bumgarner owns a sterling 3.07 ERA/3.26 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent groundball rate in 1,712 1/3 innings. Bumgarner has added 102 /3 innings of 2.11 ERA playoff pitching to his resume, making him one of the game’s go-to hurler’s in key situations. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2016, though, and hasn’t resembled the durable ace he once did earlier in his career.

Bumgarner amassed at least 200 innings of high-quality run prevention from 2011-16, but a dirt bike crash limited him to 111 frames in 2017, and a fractured pinky held him to 129 2/3 innings last season. All told, since Bumgarner’s six-year run of excellence came to an end, he has recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 40.8 percent grounder mark over 314 2/3 innings.

As shown by his output over the past few seasons, Bumgarner has remained a solid starter even as the Giants have fallen out of contention. Bumgarner’s not the ace-caliber option he once was, though, and with a few months’ control left (on a $12MM salary), San Francisco’s not in position to demand a king’s ransom for MadBum if it deals him in the next two months. The Giants don’t seem like a team that’s close to returning to glory, however, and they own of baseball’s worst farm systems. With that in mind, trading Bumgarner to bolster the franchise’s collection of young talent before the end of July could be a logical move for the organization.

If the Giants take the plunge and attempt to part with Bumgarner, there are several potential fits for the franchise icon. That said, one possible suitor may exit the mix by signing free-agent southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who could ink a contract any second from now, and Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade clause means he’ll have a certain amount of say in where he goes next. Those factor’s won’t kill interest in Bumgarner, however, as shown below (in alphabetical order)….

  • Angels: The Halos have gotten little from their rotation this season, but the Mike Trout-led club is still just 2 1/2 games out of wild-card position. That doesn’t mean the Angels will be in the Bumgarner sweepstakes, but if they really want to push for a playoff spot, they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. Free-agent signings Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill simply haven’t worked out to this point, leaving the Angels with a need for an established veteran in their starting five.
  • Astros: Keuchel, Charlie Morton and the injured Lance McCullers Jr. have all left Houston’s rotation since last season, leaving Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Corbin Martin to pick up the pieces behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. That’s not a bad group by any means, but Verlander and Cole act as the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bumgarner would look pretty nice behind them, though his limited no-trade clause gives him the right to nix a Giants-Astros deal.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s one of the teams Bumgarner could block a trade to, but as a childhood Braves fan who grew up in the South (North Carolina), it’s tough to see him blocking a deal to Georgia. The need’s obvious for the Braves, whose rotation has lacked answers behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran this season.
  • Brewers: Milwaukee’s rotation took a couple hits over the weekend in the form of injuries to Gio Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin, the latter of whom has trudged through a terrible season. Only Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies and Chase Anderson have given the Brewers’ rotation passable production this season, which leaves room for Bumgarner. However, they’re on Bumgarner’s no-trade list.
  • Cardinals: There hasn’t been a lot to like in St. Louis’ shaky rotation this year, which could lead to a Bumgarner acquisition. The Redbirds are on his no-trade list, though.
  • Mets: Whether the disappointing Mets would make an aggressive move to repair their rotation is in question, but the need exists. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz could use a better complement than Jason Vargas.
  • Padres: San Diego has been on the hunt for a front-line starter since the winter, and Bumgarner could fit the bill if the team’s bullish enough on him. The Padres, as an NL West rival, are certainly familiar enough with Bumgarner. He’d clearly strengthen a group which hasn’t received much from anyone but Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Matt Strahm or Eric Lauer. It’s worth noting the Padres are monitoring the workloads of Paddack and Strahm, which could limit their impact as the season progresses.
  • Phillies: This has been a rather underwhelming season for Philadelphia’s rotation, including potential ace Aaron Nola. There’s obviously space for Bumgarner, though he’d have to approve a trade to the Phillies.
  • Rangers: This is a long shot, but the Rangers are unexpectedly in wild-card contention and would benefit from Bumgarner. He’d join a team whose rotation has gotten little aside from Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Ariel Jurado (over a mere three starts in Jurado’s case).
  • Rays: The opener method has worked well for Tampa Bay, but the club has turned to that strategy largely because it’s lacking an adequate supply of credible starters. Bumgarner would give the Rays another legitimate traditional starter alongside Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Morton, assuming Glasnow returns this summer from a forearm strain.
  • Red Sox: The reigning world champs are on Bumgarner’s no-trade list, but there’s a need for a rotation stabilizer in Beantown. Chris Sale hasn’t been his usual ace-like self, Nathan Eovaldi has been injured, and Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have only offered back-end production to this point. The luxury tax is a concern for the Red Sox, though – they’re at upward of $251MM in that regard, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and will pay a 75 percent tax for every dollar spent over the $246MM mark while losing 10 spots in the 2020 draft.
  • Rockies: Colorado’s rotation was a strength last year, but that hasn’t been the case this season despite the best efforts of German Marquez and Jon Gray. The club just demoted 2018 Cy Young contender Kyle Freeland to the minors. He, like Bumgarner, is a lefty.
  • Twins: Judging by their interest in Keuchel, we know the first-place Twins aren’t content with their rotation. Bumgarner would fit in nicely in a quintet that hasn’t received much production after Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez.
  • Yankees: New York’s yet another contender on Bumgarner’s no-trade list. That aside, the Yankees should be on the lookout for another starter. Ace Luis Severino hasn’t pitched at all this season on account of a lat strain, while No. 2 starter James Paxton has never been the most durable option. Meanwhile, 2019 standout Domingo German hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in  a season since  2014 – when he was a Single-A pitcher – and the soon-to-be 39-year-old CC Sabathia’s hardly an endless source of innings in the twilight of his career.

Of the 14 teams listed above, some are better positioned to land Bumgarner than others, as shown in the most recent farm system rankings of Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Judging by the amount of potential suitors for Bumgarner, though, the Giants should get a respectable package for the franchise icon if they move him. Two end-of-July deadlines ago, the Rangers sent righty Yu Darvish to the Dodgers for three players, including then-top 100 prospect Willie Calhoun. The Rangers followed that up by moving lefty Cole Hamels to the Cubs last year for three players, though no one from the trio was a premium prospect at the time. While Bumgarner won’t bring back an enormous return this summer, he ought to warrant something along the lines of what Darvish landed the Rangers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade

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Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season.  On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought.  Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.

Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all.  Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency.  Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat.  It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off.  Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.

There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions.  After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm.  Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.

With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal.  For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move.  He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team.  Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.

There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond.  In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved.  He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base.  While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.

The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster.  Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez.  It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.

The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest.  While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).

We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams.  Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.

It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess.  On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.

The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings.  Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board.  The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season.  The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.

Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team.  The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form.  If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field.  While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade.  While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.

Looking For A Match In A Carlos Santana Trade

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Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported via a rival executive that the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana.  The Rhys Hoskins left field experiment went poorly this year, so it’s logical for GM Matt Klentak to attempt to trade the veteran Santana to allow Hoskins to move back to first base in 2019.

First, let’s take a look at what Santana is in this stage of his career.  He’s a switch-hitting walk machine with modest power.  He put up a 109 wRC+ for the Phillies this year, and 119 from May onward.  Steamer projects a 119 mark on the whole for Santana next year.  That’s a level he’s reached only once in the last four seasons, so it would be fair to question such optimism.

Though it’s an unscientific and more conservative guess, I’d expect 110-115.  Certainly if you’re a rival GM and Santana is being shopped to you, you’d take my position on his expected offense.  Santana has spent most of his time as a first baseman in recent years with the Phillies and Indians, and of course he’s an option at designated hitter as well.

Santana’s contract is a major factor in any potential trade.  He’s owed $35MM over the next two years.  Given Santana’s strong projection for next year, a case can be made that the Phillies shouldn’t need to pay his contract down significantly.  However, I think in reality there are enough cheaper alternatives on the market that the Phillies will have to kick in at least $10MM, or else take back a contract or attach a prospect.

For a look at the other first basemen available this winter, check out Jeff Todd’s market snapshot from last month.  The free agent market doesn’t offer any first baseman who qualifies as a definite regular, but the trade market could be robust.  Paul Goldschmidt is obviously superior to Santana, while Justin Smoak is a fairly similar hitter who is earning only $8MM in 2019.  Though better suited at DH, the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez is also in Santana’s class as a hitter.  Martinez has yet to reach arbitration and can be controlled for four more years.  I’m not convinced Jose Abreu and Brandon Belt will be on the move this winter.  The trade market at first base could also feature a variety of more flawed options, such as Justin Bour (now on waivers), Eric Thames, or Wil Myers.  The bottom line: the presence of Goldschmidt, Smoak, and perhaps Martinez could clog Santana’s market, as Goldy is an impact hitter and the others have more desirable contract situations.

There’s also the idea that a team with an established first baseman could acquire Santana to serve primarily as its designated hitter.  The DH trade market could include Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo, Shin-Soo Choo, C.J. Cron, Matt Davidson, and Miguel Cabrera.  As a hitter, only Cabrera is on Santana’s level, and he’s basically immovable due to his hefty contract.  The free agent market does offer one option that is superior to Santana as a DH: Nelson Cruz.  Cruz projects at a 132 wRC+ next year, and we expect him to sign for less than the $35MM owed to Santana.  So if you’re looking to fill a DH spot, you would talk to Cruz’s agent before you’d worry about trading for Santana – unless the Phillies offer to pay down Santana’s contract significantly.  You might also look at a player like Daniel Murphy, who carries a similar projection to Santana and should sign for less than $30MM.

If the Phillies are viewing Santana as mainly a contract dump, they might need to kick in $15MM to get him down to the equivalent of a two year, $20MM deal.  If the commitment was reduced that far, Santana might start to rise up on teams’ lists above someone like Murphy.  Here’s a look at the teams that could be a match for Santana this winter:

  • Twins: With Joe Mauer retiring and Logan Morrison reaching free agency, the Twins have an opening at first base and the need for a bat like Santana.  They also have room in the payroll for most of his contract.  It’s a reasonable match.
  • Astros: The Astros make a lot of sense for Santana.  He’s a better hitter than their incumbent first baseman, Yuli Gurriel, and they’re open at DH with Evan Gattis reaching free agency.  Still, it would be easier for the Astros or Twins to just sign Cruz, so the Phillies would have to make it worth their while.
  • Rays: Earlier this month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote that the Rays “seek more of a feared overall hitter” than the arbitration eligible C.J. Cron.  The Rays also have more payroll space than they’ve had in recent years, making Santana a pretty good fit.  The Rays also have Jake Bauers at first base.  27-year-old Ji-Man Choi pitched in at DH this year and should have a job against right-handed pitching.  The Rays are a sleeper pick for Santana, though like the Astros and Twins they’d need to be convinced he’s a better option than Cruz.
  • Rockies: After giving the bulk of first base time to Ian Desmond this year and getting replacement level production, the Rockies could seek an upgrade.  GM Jeff Bridich spoke earlier this month of being “a little bit more focused on our offense this offseason as compared to last season,” and Santana could give a boost compared to Desmond or Ryan McMahon.  However, the team’s payroll appears fairly tight and they may also address deficiencies at catcher and in a corner outfield spot.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals deployed the aforementioned Jose Martinez as well as Matt Carpenter at first base this year.  Carpenter could move to third base to accommodate a first base acquisition like Santana.  However, replacing Martinez with Santana would upgrade the defense more than anything, since they are hitters of similar ability.  I could see the Cards taking a look at Santana, but not as their first choice.
  • White Sox: The Sox appear likely to stick with Jose Abreu at first base, and could run out a Daniel Palka-Matt Davidson DH platoon.  Palka is an option at an outfield corner, so the White Sox could feasibly add Santana as a primary DH who also chips in at first base.  They’ve got plenty of payroll space as well.
  • Angels: The presence of both Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols make the Angels an unlikely match for Santana.  Still, the Halos should have some at-bats available at first base and DH, as Ohtani and Pujols are hardly locks for 150 games apiece.  And theoretically, Santana could try to fake it at third base as he did in 119 innings for the Phillies this year.
  • Rangers: With Shin-Soo Choo locked in at DH, the Rangers could acquire Santana as a replacement for first baseman Ronald Guzman.  It might be too early to give up on the 24-year-old Guzman, and the Rangers have stronger needs on the pitching staff and at catcher.  Still, if they’re simply looking to get better next year in any way possible, replacing Guzman with Santana should at least be on the table.
  • Marlins: This is an outside the box option, since most of the focus with the Marlins is on which veteran pieces they’ll sell off as their rebuild continues.  The team does have a few internal options at first base for next year such as Peter O’Brien and Garrett Cooper.  Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said a month ago, “We’re going to look at internal candidates, and we’re going to look at external candidates.”  Why not Santana?  For one thing, a trade can work well for a rebuilding club seeking a veteran boost, since free agents are typically reluctant to sign unless such a team overbids.  Plus, the Marlins arguably have the payroll space to take on Santana’s entire contract, especially if they unload players like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Derek Dietrich.  In taking on all $35MM, the Marlins could demand that the Phillies throw in a quality prospect.  It’s still a long shot scenario for the division-mates to match up on a Santana deal, however.
  • Orioles: The Orioles are stuck with Chris Davis through 2022, unless they’re willing to release him.  They’ve also got Trumbo under contract for one more year.  Adding Santana only makes sense in the same vein as the Marlins: take the entire contract, and get a quality veteran hitter plus a prospect.
  • Tigers: The Tigers could slot Miguel Cabrera in at DH and acquire Santana for first base.  They’ve got the payroll space for Santana, at least compared to historical spending.  But a bargain option makes more sense here unless the Phillies offer something enticing, putting the Tigers in the same group as fellow rebuilders like the Marlins and Orioles.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have first baseman Mitch Moreland under contract for $6.5MM for 2019 and J.D. Martinez locked in at DH.  The most likely path is just bringing back Steve Pearce as Moreland’s right-handed hitting complement, but the Sox could theoretically acquire Santana and plug him in as the everyday first baseman.  Doing so would likely make the team better, though a first base switch doesn’t appear to be an offseason priority.  Plus, acquiring Santana would worsen Boston’s luxury tax penalty.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have Luke Voit and Greg Bird as first base options, and Giancarlo Stanton spending at least some of his time at DH.  There’s no real point to replacing Voit with Santana, and the Yankees have bigger needs, so this match appears unlikely.
  • Royals: The Royals don’t have anyone at first base or DH that would preclude an acquisition of Santana.  But with the team looking to cut payroll, trading for Santana hardly makes sense.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

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The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that).  As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering.  Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons.  The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason.  Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season.  Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM.  That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays.  Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season.  Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons.  Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field.  A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter.  After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

  • Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season.  Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019.  The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
  • Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell.  Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season.  I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
  • Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade.  This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary.  That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
  • Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint).  Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
  • Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

  • Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix).  Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
  • Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend.  If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
  • Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup.  Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix.  If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
  • Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019.  Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt.  One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
  • Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR).  Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career.  The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup.  The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

Looking For A Match In A Blake Swihart Trade

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Blake Swihart’s career path has been anything but conventional. The former first-round pick was considered one of the game’s elite prospects prior to the 2015 season and was heralded as a potential cornerstone behind the dish before injuries, questions about his defense and the emergence of Christian Vazquez changed his role. Swihart took to the outfield in 2016 with the hope that he’d be able to improve his defense there on the fly while keeping his bat in the lineup, but an ankle injury cost him most of the season. By the time he returned, Andrew Benintendi was entrenched as Boston’s everyday left fielder.

Swihart is now a man without a real role on a Red Sox team that is effectively employing a 24-man roster. Vazquez and Sandy Leon continue to handle the catching, while Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and J.D. Martinez are all more frequently used in the outfield. Swihart has appeared in only 15 games for the Sox this season and totaled 32 plate appearances. His only four starts have been at DH. He’s played a grand total of 24 innings in the field — 19 in the outfield, four at first base and one behind the plate. The Red Sox have used Swihart about as often as the rebuilding Tigers have used Victor Reyes — a 23-year-old Rule 5 outfielder they’re trying to hold onto for the entire season despite the fact that he’s not quite MLB ready.

Suffice it to say, no one should have been surprised to learn this morning that Swihart’s agent, Brodie Scoffield of the Legacy Agency, asked the Red Sox to trade his client. The current setup is a poor one for team and player. Boston can’t send Swihart to Triple-A for regular at-bats because he is out of minor league options and would surely be lost on waivers. He’s not going to provide virtually any value in such a limited role, though, and the Red Sox could probably make better use of that spot by giving it to a true fourth outfielder, a utility infielder capable of handling several positions, or a reliever with options remaining to create some additional flexibility in the ’pen.

Assuming president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski eventually honors the request and gauges interest in Swihart, there’ll probably be no shortage of clubs interested in taking a shot on the once-vaunted prospect. Some speculative fits for the switch-hitting 26-year-old…

  • Nationals: It was a surprise that the Nats didn’t add any catching help this offseason, as Matt Wieters turned in a terrible first year in D.C. and the organization had limited options beyond him. Miguel Montero signed a minor league deal but was quickly jettisoned, and the Nats now have Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom behind the plate with Wieters on the disabled list. Swihart is hardly a definitive upgrade, as he’s yet to prove himself over an extended period in the Majors, but he has more upside than their internal options.
  • Twins: Minnesota found out on Wednesday that Jason Castro will miss the remainder of the season after surgeons discovered more damage than expected when operating on his right knee. Rookie Mitch Garver and journeyman Bobby Wilson now top the team’s depth chart behind the plate, so perhaps the Twins would be open to flipping some pitching depth for a chance at Swihart.
  • Brewers: Milwaukee catchers are hitting a combined .197/.274/.333 on the season, as neither Manny Pina nor Jett Bandy has been performing well. Veteran Stephen Vogt’s season is over due to shoulder surgery, leaving Jacob Nottingham and former prospect Christian Bethancourt as the only upper-level alternatives currently within the organization. Swihart won’t see much, if any playing time in a crowded Milwaukee outfield, but there should be at-bats up for grabs at catcher.
  • Mets: Catching is an obvious area of need for the Mets, though they’ve already made one move in the past week, acquiring Devin Mesoraco from the Reds. Given that Kevin Plawecki is nearing a return from a broken hand, it doesn’t seem likely that the Mets would swing a second trade in the near future. But if Swihart is still in Boston as the All-Star break approaches and the Plawecki/Mesoraco tandem is struggling, perhaps the Mets would make another change.
  • Athletics: Jonathan Lucroy is only on a one-year deal with the A’s, and Bruce Maxwell’s lack of production was already enough to make him a questionable long-term option before his highly publicized off-field issues. Oakland has room in the outfield corners as well and certainly has never had an aversion to rotating players through multiple positions.
  • Rangers: Robinson Chirinos is signed affordably through 2019, and the Rangers do have a fair bit of catching talent in the pipeline, though most of those prospects are still several years away from the Majors. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has done some catching in the minors but has only caught three games this season and has been working primarily as an infielder. There’s not much room in the outfield corners once Willie Calhoun arrives for good, and the Rangers do have former Phillies backstop Cameron Rupp in Triple-A. Still, there’s more playing time available for Swihart in Arlington than there is in Boston.
  • White Sox: Welington Castillo is the primary catcher for manager Rick Renteria, and that won’t change after he signed a two-year, $15MM contract in the offseason. But Swihart could easily displace Omar Narvaez as the backup and see some occasional outfield time as well.
  • Padres: No one questions Austin Hedges’ defensive prowess, but he’s yet to prove that he can get on base at the highest level. Hedges mashed 18 homers last season but did so with a .262 OBP that ranked dead last in the National League (min. 400 PA). San Diego has a stacked farm system but is still light on catching talent in the upper minors. The Padres don’t really have much to offer in the way of playing time in the outfield or at first base, so they’d need to believe that Swihart can make an impact behind the dish.
  • Marlins: J.T. Realmuto is among the game’s best catchers, but he’s also one of the most easily identifiable trade candidates in Major League Baseball as well. The Marlins will get offers on Realmuto this summer, and while they won’t simply take the best one that’s presented with Realmuto controlled through 2020, there’s still a chance that he moves. If they hang onto him, the rumor carousel will fire up again this winter. There’s no real catching help on the horizon beyond Realmuto, and the Marlins are the exact type of rebuilding club that can afford to give Swihart a lengthy look behind the plate.
  • Diamondbacks: Arizona GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter all have Red Sox roots, and D-backs catchers haven’t hit whatsoever in 2018. The Diamondbacks added Alex Avila on an affordable two-year deal in the offseason, but that’s yet to pay dividends. Defensive specialist Jeff Mathis isn’t hitting, either, and John Ryan Murphy has a .259 OBP. The Diamondbacks have carried three catchers in each of the past two seasons, and the Hazen-led front office took a similar roll of the dice on another out-of-options former Boston first-rounder, Deven Marrero, late in Spring Training.

Other clubs could and almost certainly will inquire, as well, of course. It stands to reason that while some organizations may not be sold on Swihart as a catcher, they’d be perfectly content to give him a tryout in left field and/or at first base. Some clubs are probably keen on simply shuffling him around at all three positions. In that sense, one could make an argument for Swihart fitting on just about any club in the league, given that he’s likely to have a low cost of acquisition and comes with a fair bit of upside even if his prospect star has undeniably dimmed.

Of course, if the goal of this exercise is to find an organization in need of an upgrade behind the plate, where he brings the most potential value, it’s worth stressing that perhaps no club in baseball could use a boost more than Swihart’s current team. Vazquez and Leon are batting a combined .174/.224/.219, but the Red Sox have still not seen fit to give Swihart more than that one lone inning behind the dish.

Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston recently chatted with Red Sox catching coordinator Chad Epperson about the work Swihart is putting into catching drills in taking a lengthier look at Swihart’s unusual role (or lack thereof) with the team. Within, pitching coach Dana LeVangie acknowledged the dilemma facing the Red Sox: in order for Swihart to improve, the biggest thing he needs is consistent reps behind the plate. Those simply aren’t available in Boston right now, despite the struggles of the team’s top two catchers.

The Sox, of course, signed Vazquez to a $13.55MM extension this offseason due in no small part to his defensive talents. It’s somewhat more puzzling that there doesn’t appear to be any thought to displacing Leon, however, as he’s hit just .217/.280/.336 in 351 plate appearances dating back to last season.

That the Sox aren’t willing to displace either struggling bat to give Swihart a more legitimate look behind the plate certainly seems like a statement on how they view his current defense. But it still seems likely that another club would be happy to acquire his bat at a discount rate in hopes that increased reps will help him to hone his craft. And for the Sox, who figure to spend the season vying for the AL East crown with the Yankees, having a 25th man on the roster whom they could actually use from time to time certainly seems like an endeavor worth pursuing sooner rather than later.

Looking For A Match In A Starlin Castro Trade

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Middle infielder Starlin Castro has collected four All-Star appearances, 1,280 hits and a rich contract since he made his major league debut in 2010. It’s fair to say Castro has lived pretty well during his big league tenure, then, though team success has been difficult to come by for the 27-year-old.

Starlin Castro

Castro spent the first six years of his career with the Cubs, who only went to the playoffs once during that span. That season, 2015, proved to be Castro’s last in Chicago, which traded him to the Yankees during the ensuing winter. Less than a year later, Wrigleyville celebrated its first World Series title in 108 years.

The Yankees didn’t qualify for the playoffs in Castro’s first year in the Bronx, but they bounced back to play deep into October last season and take the eventual champion Astros to seven games in the ALCS. That looked like the beginning of what could be a long run of success for the talent-packed Yankees, but it was also the end of Castro’s run with them.

Not only did the Yankees trade Castro after the season, dealing him and two prospects to the Marlins for 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, but they sent him to a team that hasn’t won in years and won’t in the near future. The Stanton trade was primarily a payroll-cutting move by Miami, which later shipped fellow star outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals. Now in the early stages of an extensive rebuild, the Marlins’ already lengthy playoff drought (14 years) is likely to drag on for at least a few more seasons.

Castro, having had his fill of losing, would reportedly like to leave the Marlins before ever taking the field as a member of the franchise. With a guaranteed $22MM left on his contract through 2019, his only hope of escaping the Marlins in the near term is via trade. It’s unclear whether the Marlins are interested in dealing him, but it stands to reason they’re open to it, given that slashing costs seems to be the main motivation of neophyte owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter right now.

The trouble is that obvious fits for Castro, a longtime shortstop who lined up exclusively at second base as a Yankee, are hard to find. His All-Star nods notwithstanding, Castro has been more of an average player than a high-impact one in the majors, having slashed .282/.320/.413 (97 wRC+, 98 OPS+) and totaled 14.2 fWAR/13.5 rWAR across 4,847 plate appearances. His contract offers little to no surplus value, then, and there simply isn’t much league-wide demand right now at either short or second (where similarly valuable players in Eduardo Nunez and Neil Walker are still free agents).

Signs seem to point to Castro opening 2018 with the Marlins, but we’ll run it down team by team and try to find an ideal club for him, beginning with last year’s playoff qualifiers:

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Trading Manny Machado

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Entering the offseason, it was often suggested that the Orioles should listen to offers on Manny Machado with one year remaining until he reaches the open market, but most reports suggested that the O’s hoped to take one more shot at contending in 2018 before Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach reach free agency. To that end, GM Dan Duquette spoke openly about his hope of adding as many as three starters to round out the rotation behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman in an effort to remain competitive.

Over the past week, reports have tilted in the other direction, as suggestions that the O’s would listen on Machado have now evolved to the point where The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Baltimore is shopping Machado and asking interested parties to make offers on the three-time All-Star. Baltimore is eyeing a pair of controllable young starters in talks for Machado, per Rosenthal. It’s a steep ask for a one-year rental of a player projected by MLBTR to earn $17.3MM in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility — even if Machado has been among the game’s truly elite talents over the past five seasons.

Manny Machado | Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore’s preferences aside, it’s probably fair to assume that a trade package for Machado doesn’t expressly need to be built around two starters. Teams can offer any combination of Major League position players and prospects with some upper-level pitching as they attempt to pique Baltimore’s interest, and if the Orioles are truly open to the idea of moving Machado, it’s doubtful that they’d turn down a strong offer simply because the best player involved happened to be a position player.

It’s also worth noting that while many have suggested that a theoretical Machado trade could come with a “window” to negotiate an extension with his reps at MVP Sports, that scenario is uncommon. Nor, for that matter, should it be considered especially likely that Machado is particularly amenable to an extension with a new organization when he’s less than 12 months removed from hitting the open market as a 26-year-old free agent with a legitimate chance at a record-setting extension.

The Best Fit

From my vantage point, the Cardinals represent the best fit in terms of need and available prospects. The Cards are flush with young pitching, boasting names ranging from Alex Reyes to Luke Weaver to Jack Flaherty to Sandy Alcantara. They’ve also got a sizable crop of upper-level outfielders — another potential area of need for an Orioles with Adam Jones set to hit free agency next winter and no established presence in right field (with no disrespect to Austin Hays, who could well cement himself there in 2018).

The Cards may be reluctant to part with someone of Reyes’ upside or a pitcher like Weaver who shined so brightly down the stretch, but they have plenty of pieces to entice the Orioles. And, they could easily accommodate Machado’s desire to play shortstop by moving Paul DeJong to third base and/or dealing from the infield surplus that a Machado acquisition would create. For a team that just missed out on adding Giancarlo Stanton, acquiring Machado would be a strong fallback option, even if he comes as a short-term rental.

Plausible Landing Spots

Rosenthal noted in his report that Orioles owner Peter Angelos didn’t want to move Machado to the division-rival Yankees, but they have the farm system to make a Godfather offer and a newly vacated hole in their infield with today’s trade of Chase Headley to the Padres. Were it not for the reported reluctance on Angelos’ behalf, they’d merit mention alongside the Cards as one of the clearest fits for Machado.

It’s abundantly clear that the Angels have their sights set on returning to prominence in the AL West sooner rather than later. While they can’t offer Marte time at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons in tow, adding Machado would give the Halos one of the best defensive shortstop/third base combos of this generation. The Angels have an improving but still-not-elite farm, but they have some arms on the big league roster that could at least intrigue the Orioles. Andrew Heaney is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has four years of remaining control. Tyler Skaggs has had his own injury issues but has three years of control.

Weird Dark Horse Suggestions

The Rockies’ roster is stacked with controllable arms on the cusp of the big league roster and the team could view a Machado acquisition as a means of elevating them to the next level while they still have Nolan Arenado in the organization. Adding Machado at shortstop would likely push Trevor Story into a utility role, but having a versatile piece with that type of power would only seem to be a boon for the Rox.

The O’s and Nationals are hardly on the best of terms thanks to their ongoing MASN dispute, and in fact, the two teams have never brokered a trade since the Nats moved to D.C. However, Washington is committed to an aggressive bid at contending in their final guaranteed year of team control over Bryce Harper. The Nats are largely set in the outfield, but they could still shift Trea Turner back to center field and bump Michael Taylor to a fourth outfielder for one year in order to add a player of Machado’s caliber.

No Clear Need

It’s borderline insane to suggest that any team “doesn’t need” Machado; a player of his caliber would improve virtually any team, and he could be deployed at either third base or shortstop next season, so there’d be a variety of ways for him to slot into a new team’s lineup.

Still, teams such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Indians and Mariners lack a pressing need on the left side of the infield and/or already have long-term commitments already in place there. (Cleveland may also have some financial trepidation.) Any team could reasonably look at a Machado rental as a unique opportunity to acquire one of the game’s elite talents, but there’d be enough moving parts involved in talks with any of these teams to make each of them seem unlikely.

Long Shots That Merit Mention

The Giants are another club that missed out on Stanton and have an obvious spot at which they can work Machado into the infield. The hot corner was a black hole in San Francisco last year, as Giants third basemen combined to post a putrid .216/.268/.300 batting line on the season as a whole. Much as the Giants might love the notion of installing Machado at third base though, their best offer could almost certainly topped by an interested party with a better system.

Machado is an upgrade over Jorge Polanco at short for the Twins, who could push Polanco to third base and Miguel Sano to DH. But, the Twins are in dire need of arms themselves. It’d be a surprise to see them part with near-MLB ready arms in a trade to rent Machado for one year. The Brewers are in a similar spot in the sense that while Machado would upgrade over Orlando Arcia, adding pitching is a priority in Milwaukee. Taking a one-year shot on Machado for either Midwest club seems unlikely.

The Mets have plenty of uncertainty in their infield as David Wright and T.J. Rivera both try to return from injuries and Amed Rosario looks to establish himself as a big leaguer. But, New York’s pitching staff was in shambles last season due to injuries, and the depth they once had in the upper levels of the minors has thinned out. It’s tough to see them depleting their supply for a short-term add.

Up in Boston, the Red Sox are known to be looking to add some power to the lineup, but they’re currently penciling Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts in at third and short. Outside of moving Devers across the diamond to first base or a trade of Bogaerts (which some have speculated about but has yet to emerge as a serious possibility), it’s tough to envision that fit. Elsewhere in the AL East, the Blue Jays have their own superstar third baseman in Josh Donaldson with Troy Tulowitzki and Aledmys Diaz in the mix at shortstop.

Everth Cabrera and Khalil Greene are the only two Padres shortstops to post seasons of 3+ fWAR in the past two decades. San Diego has a glaring need at shortstop and a stacked farm system, but it’s still tough to see A.J. Preller depleting the farm he’s built up for a one-year addition of Machado in a year the team has little hope of contending.

Oakland has a steady shortstop in the form of Marcus Semien and will struggle to contend in a stacked AL West division as they wait on their young core to further cement itself in the Majors. The A’s have made some surprise veteran additions in the past and made a serious push for Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, but they’re a substantial reach in this regard.

The Phillies and Braves, too, figure to be oft-mentioned candidates to make a play for Machado. Philadelphia has widely been considered to be a likely pursuer of Machado in free agency, and new Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a vacancy at third base and a reputation for making big splashes. But neither team was competitive in 2017, neither seems likely to push past the Nationals atop the division and both would be changing course somewhat from rebuilds by flipping long-term talent for short-term gain.

Out of the Picture

Teams that are just embarking on lengthy rebuilds and/or face significant payroll restrictions can more or less be ruled out entirely. The Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Rays and Pirates don’t seem possible by almost any stretch of the imagination. (And, clearly, there’s been some imagination stretching in some of the above-portrayed scenarios.) The Reds and White Sox are further along in the rebuilding process than Detroit, Kansas City or Miami, but neither club makes sense as an ultimate landing spot. The Diamondbacks have a weak farm with several infield options on the left side already, and they’re up against a rather substantial payroll crunch that could make Machado’s $17MM+ salary difficult to stomach.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade

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The Reds’ short- and long-term plans for their rotation hit a snag in 2016 when promising starter Raisel Iglesias shifted to the bullpen after encountering shoulder problems. Now, with Iglesias having morphed into one of the game’s most valuable late-game assets over the past two seasons, it’s clear that something positive came from the right-hander’s role change.

Since he became a member of Cincinnati’s relief corps, Iglesias has combined for 126 innings of 2.29 ERA pitching, with 10.43 K/9 against 3.29 BB/9. Any team would sign up for that type of production, including the Reds themselves, who seem inclined to retain Iglesias entering his age-28 season. But with the Reds amid a rebuild and not looking like near-term contenders, there’s an argument to be made that they should sell Iglesias this winter.

Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias has already drawn reported interest from the Twins, who will need to bolster their thin bullpen if they’re going to build on the unexpected success they experienced in 2017. Iglesias would be a fit for a Minnesota club seeking more strikeouts from its pitching staff, but with a farm system that lacks impact talent (per Baseball America), he may be out of its reach.

The Twins are one of a multitude of teams that could inquire about Iglesias (or maybe already have). Indeed, general manager Dick Williams estimated earlier this month that two-thirds of the league would have interest in Iglesias without the Reds even having to shop his services. That seems like a reasonable guess on Williams’ part, given both Iglesias’ superb pitching and his affordability.

Thanks to the seven-year, $27MM contract he signed as a Cuban defector in 2014, Iglesias is under control through the 2020-21 offseason. He’s guaranteed a relatively meager $14.5MM in salaries over the next three years ($4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in both ’19 and ’20), though he could opt into arbitration in each of those offseasons if he believes he’d rake in more money that way. That’s unlikely to happen in 2018, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.8MM arbitration award for Iglesias should he choose that route. Regardless, Iglesias’ contract only adds to his appeal, and it’s a big part of the reason why he’d command a significant haul in a trade.

Teams with good systems that are either in contention or close to it stand out as the best fits for Iglesias in a hypothetical trade, which would seem to rule out rebuilding clubs such as the Tigers, Padres, Marlins, Athletics and White Sox. None of the Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Indians, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks or Giants look like ideal fits, either, for various reasons.

Toronto and Tampa Bay have two of the top 10 farms in the league, according to BA, though neither team appears to be in position to strip itself of major young talent to acquire a reliever. The Yankees and Indians seem to possess more than enough quality relievers, meanwhile, and the rest of the aforementioned clubs probably don’t have the youth on hand to put together a suitable package for Iglesias. That leaves us with seven of the Reds’ National League counterparts — the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers — and the World Series champion Astros.

An earnest Iglesias pursuit could be a tad aggressive for either Atlanta or Philadelphia, a pair of clubs that have resided at the bottom of the standings in recent years. Both teams seem to be pushing toward contention, however, and there’s no shortage of capable prospects on hand in either case (even though the Braves just lost a dozen youngsters thanks to ex-GM John Coppolella’s transgressions).

The Nationals figure to rule the NL East for the third straight year in 2018, but they’re not loaded in the bullpen after Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Next season might be the last in D.C. for Bryce Harper, which could lead to some bold, go-for-broke moves from general manager Mike Rizzo this winter. Landing Iglesias would qualify, though it would mean further thinning out a top-heavy system.

The Cardinals look poised to serve as one of the league’s most active teams in the next few months, and the need for relief help is apparent with Trevor Rosenthal out of the organization and Seung-hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio having hit free agency. The division-rival Brewers had the world-class game-ending tandem of Corey Knebel and Josh Hader in 2017, but the latter could shift to the rotation in the near future. Even if he doesn’t, there’s room for another inexpensive, top-notch reliever in Milwaukee, a low-payroll club with the prospects to assemble an Iglesias package.

As for the two NL West clubs, the Rockies and Dodgers, it’s clear there’s a greater need for Iglesias in Colorado. The Rockies surprisingly earned a playoff berth in 2017, in part because of relievers Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Pat Neshek. All three of those hurlers are now free agents, however, so Colorado is going to have to focus on its bullpen this offseason. Enter Iglesias, then? Notably, he’s rather reliant on a slider, a pitch the Rockies’ relievers threw more than 28 other bullpens last season and one that’s capable of surviving in the high altitude at Coors Field.

The pennant-winning Dodgers have arguably the game’s preeminent closer in Kenley Jansen, but their second-best reliever from last season, Brandon Morrow, is currently on the open market. That leaves room for an Iglesias pickup if they’re willing to part with the prospects, as he’s superior to late-inning holdovers such as Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Luis Avilan and ex-Reds teammate Tony Cingrani.

The Astros managed to knock off the Dodgers in a Fall Classic that lived up its name, though the slump Houston’s bullpen endured nearly foiled its plans. Still, Iglesias would be more of a luxury than a must-have for the Astros, who look to be in fine shape with Ken Giles (playoff struggles notwithstanding), Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove in the fold. But GM Jeff Luhnow tried to meaningfully improve the Astros’ bullpen over the summer, when he nearly swung a deal for the Orioles’ Zach Britton, and that was before Giles’ disastrous postseason run. With that in mind, perhaps Luhnow will dip into his high-end farm system this offseason to reel in a premier reliever like Iglesias, who would join a bullpen that led the majors in slider usage in 2017.

While the Reds may choose to go forward with Iglesias, it’s inarguable that they have an eminently valuable trade chip on their hands. As someone who saved 28 of 30 opportunities and recorded more than three outs in 17 of 63 appearances last season, Iglesias is the type of flexible late-game weapon who’d be worth more to a playoff-caliber team than a non-contender. With Cincinnati falling into the latter category, Iglesias just might himself in another uniform in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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