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Looking For A Match In A Trade

Best Fits For A Whit Merrifield Trade

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For the past few seasons, there’s been loose deadline speculation around the possibility of the Royals dealing Whit Merrifield. To this point, Kansas City has resisted that possibility. A career-long member of an organization that is generally among the game’s most loyal, Merrifield was a late-bloomer who signed an affordable early-career extension. That allowed the Royals to keep him at little cost through his prime seasons, which included consecutive MLB-leading hit totals in 2018-19 and a pair of All-Star appearances.

As recently as last season, Merrifield participated in the Midsummer Classic. He went on to appear in all 162 games, led baseball with 42 doubles and swiped an AL-best 40 bases. The Royals hoped he’d be a top-of-the-order sparkplug for a more competitive team in 2022, but that hasn’t panned out. Not only has the team found itself 20 games below .500 at the All-Star Break, Merrrifield is having a career-worst season. He owns a .240/.292/.343 line through 373 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+.

Merrifield is signed through the end of next season. The Royals restructured his deal during Spring Training, so he’s making $7MM this year (about $2.73MM of which will be paid out after the August 2 deadline) and $6.75MM next season. The deal also contains a $500K buyout on a 2024 mutual option. With the affordable control and Merrifield’s trade value at a low ebb, the Royals don’t have to force a trade over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last month the club was more amenable to dealing him than they’ve been in years past.

Even during a down year, Merrifield should draw attention from other clubs. He remains a high-contact bat and an excellent baserunner, having stolen 14 more bags while being caught just twice. He’s typically a solid defender at both second base and in the corner outfield, although public metrics are down a bit on his first-half performance in that regard. Merrifield has also looked more like himself of late, hitting .269/.322/.392 with 15 doubles and 11 steals in 65 games since the start of May. His April was abysmal, but he’s been productive for the past two and a half months and has a quality career body of work.

If the Royals were to seriously market Merrifield over the next two weeks, which teams stand out as the best fits? With a season and a half of remaining control, it’ll have to be a team that realistically feels it can compete by 2023. The Pirates, Reds, A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Nationals can probably be ruled out on that alone. The Rockies and Rangers have their sights set on competing next year, but neither is likely to preemptively acquire a second baseman this summer. The Tigers are perhaps a bit more plausible given the tough season they’ve gotten from Jonathan Schoop, but they’re going to be more focused on dealing some players than acquiring a notable veteran from a division rival with an eye towards 2023.

Of the remaining two-thirds of the league’s teams, which seem likeliest to be in touch with Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Piccolo?

Best Fits

Mariners — Seattle has won 14 in a row to go into the All-Star Break owners of a 51-42 record. It’s still an uphill battle to catch the Astros in the AL West, but they’re firmly in the Wild Card mix and likely to look for ways to upgrade over the next two weeks. No position stands out more than second base, where Seattle has gotten a collective .212/.279/.299 line. Offseason acquisition Adam Frazier has underwhelmed, as has last year’s deadline pickup Abraham Toro. The M’s could move Ty France to second base, but he’s better suited for first base/designated hitter duty. Frazier’s headed towards free agency after this season anyhow, and Merrifield could be an affordable upgrade for both the remainder of this season and next.

White Sox — The White Sox have had a generally underwhelming season, but they’re coming out of the Break just three games back in the AL Central. The second base tandem of Leury García and Josh Harrison hasn’t panned out, although Harrison has been alright over the past month. Merrifield would still be a definitive upgrade there, and his relatively modest salary should be particularly appealing to a team already sporting a franchise-record payroll. Would the Royals be willing to deal Merrifield inside the division? They’d surely like to compete next season, so perhaps that’ll give them some hesitance, but he’d only be under contract for one season of plausible contention.

Dodgers — Heyman reported last week that the Dodgers have already been in touch with the Royals. Second base isn’t really a need for L.A., with former top prospect Gavin Lux enjoying his awaited breakout season. Lux has seen some time in left field of late while the Dodgers have been without Chris Taylor, though, and their offseason pickup of Hanser Alberto as a righty-hitting utilityman hasn’t worked. Landing Merrifield may lead to a bit of a position player surplus once Taylor returns from the injured list, but the Dodgers haven’t been deterred by having “too much talent” in recent years.

Giants — The Giants are in a similar boat as their archrivals. They have a handful of second base-caliber players, and righties Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada are playing well. Tommy La Stella is off to a rough start after opening the year on the injured list, and the Giants have already been tied to Brandon Drury.  That suggests they’re open to adding another righty-swinging versatile infielder. Merrifield doesn’t have Drury’s power, but his high-contact game may be a better fit for Oracle Park.

Brewers — The Brewers are expected to look for another bat this summer as they battle the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Kolten Wong has been a slightly below-average hitter this year, and his public defensive metrics have tumbled. That’s not too dissimilar from Merrifield, and perhaps Milwaukee will feel he’s not much (if any) of an upgrade over Wong. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote that the Brew Crew could listen to offers on Wong even as they look for other ways to add to the offense.

Longer Shots

Orioles — The Orioles are within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot despite their second basemen hitting only .196/.269/.363. Rougned Odor is just a stopgap, and the O’s are likely to look for a better second baseman this offseason. Actually reaching the playoffs this year is unlikely, but Merrifield is affordable and would be a good fit for a 2023 team that could more earnestly compete. With the 2022 club at least hanging around, there’s an argument for GM Mike Elias and his staff to strike a little early for a controllable player.

Angels — It’s a similar argument for the Angels, although their involvement in the bidding would be strictly about 2023. The Halos have gotten nothing from second base this year, one of the reasons they’re set to miss the playoffs again. Next season will be a turning point, with Shohei Ohtani slated to reach free agency after the year. They’re going to have to aggressively address the roster’s flaws over the next eight months. Nothing stops them from adding controllable players this summer while still dealing rentals like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.

Rays — The Rays haven’t gotten much out of second base this year, but that’s largely because Brandon Lowe missed more than a month. With Lowe back, the keystone is no longer a concern, although Tampa Bay’s myriad outfield injuries could cause them to look at a versatile infield/outfield type.

Braves — Atlanta hasn’t gotten much from Orlando Arcia since Ozzie Albies broke his foot. They acquired Robinson Canó as a stopgap and anticipate Albies returning late next month. That probably reduces the urgency to add a second baseman, although they’re in a tight battle with the Mets and could work Merrifield into the corner outfield once Albies returns.

Phillies — Continuing the theme of “contenders whose second basemen got hurt,” the Phils have been without Jean Segura since May. He’s expected back this year, though, and the presence of top prospect Bryson Stott gives Philadelphia some cover until then. Bullpen or center field help seems likelier.

No Pressing Second Base Need

Each of the Yankees, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox have everyday second basemen locked into the lineup. Merrifield’s ability to play the corner outfield could make him an option for some of this group — the Yankees and Padres, in particular, could look into outfield additions — but they seem less likely to be motivated than teams searching for a second baseman. Much of Merrifield’s appeal lies in his defensive flexibility, and pigeon-holing him into the corner outfield reduces a good bit of his value. Contenders looking for an impactful corner bat to upgrade the middle of the order seem likely to find cleaner fits elsewhere.

Merrifield’s vaccination status also impacts some teams’ pursuits, most notably the Blue Jays. He was not permitted to travel to Canada for the Royals series in Toronto last week, and similar concerns reportedly diminished the Yankees’ interest in teammate Andrew Benintendi. Merrifield told reporters he’d be open to reconsidering his stance on getting vaccinated if dealt to a playoff contender that could have to travel across the border for meaningful games. He stopped short of firmly declaring he’d do so, however, and questions about his availability for those games could be of concern for some teams.

There’s no guarantee the Royals will actually follow through on a Merrifield trade. This is far from the first time his name has made the rounds on the rumor circuit, and Kansas City has yet to pull the trigger on a deal (or seemingly come close). If the front office takes a different approach this summer, teams like the Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers feel like the most plausible suitors.

Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

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Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield.  As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of.  Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production.  He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder.  As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success.  But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework.  Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money.  The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.  If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history.  Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching.  If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier.  The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right.  The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door.  This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions.  With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers.  With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

  • Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level.  While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
  • Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club.  His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend.  For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
  • Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield.  With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
  • Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield.  One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
  • Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar.  Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
  • Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price.  However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
  • Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks.  The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

  • Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs.  Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
  • Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field.  If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
  • Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut.  What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery.  Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
  • Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest.  Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role.  Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
  • Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia.  There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.  Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

  • Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons.  Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
  • Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense.  Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position.  As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
  • White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired.  Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
  • Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton.  Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade

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The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.

As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.

The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.

If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.

Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.

Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.

Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.

Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.

Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.

Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.

Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.

Looking For The Next Marlins Catcher

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In a recent post, I looked at some potential landing spots for Willson Contreras, should the Cubs decide to move him. A few commenters expressed surprise that the Marlins weren’t on the list. While it’s true that Miami could use a new backstop, and has been rumored to have interest in Contreras in the past, my logic for leaving them off the list was that I expect they will target a catcher with more control than Contreras, who would be a pure rental. While it’s possible they could trade for Contreras and then sign him to an extension, that wouldn’t be cheap, especially for a club that has been stripping payroll down in recent years. It seems more likely that they will target a catcher that matches their current core.

With Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and others, the club has a solid core of players that are between the ages of 23 and 27, and all come with at least three years of control. They also have five prospects on both the MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs Top 100, as well as six on Baseball America’s list. The club has everything in place to open a competitive window soon, but after going 67-95 in 2021, it’s probably too soon to be going after a win-now piece like Contreras.

In the first few months of 2021, most of Miami’s playing time behind the plate went to Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon and Chad Wallach. With none of those three locking down the job, the club acquired a couple of catchers at the trade deadline, trading Adam Duvall to Atlanta for Alex Jackson as well as sending John Curtiss to Milwaukee for Payton Henry. Down the stretch, Jackson was given 30 starts as a catcher and Henry got five, but neither did enough to secure the position. Nick Fortes played better than both of them, but in a small sample of just 14 games that doesn’t align with his minor league track record. The position still seems to be wide open with the club looking for outside upgrades, as manager Don Mattingly admitted when discussing the situation a few weeks ago. But since there’s a weak free agent class and the Marlins have about a dozen viable starting pitchers, there should be plenty of avenues for trade discussions this winter. Let’s dig into some options.

Blue Jays: The Canadian birds are loaded with young, cheap, controllable catchers, with varying degrees of appeal. Danny Jansen is entering his age-27 season, which will be his first of three arbitration years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz recently projected his salary will be a modest $1.5MM. He dealt with various injuries in 2021 and only got into 70 games, but hit 11 home runs in that time and slashed .223/299/.473, producing a wRC of 105 and 1.4 fWAR. Reese McGuire got a lot of playing time when Jansen was hurt, getting into 78 games and hitting .253/.310/.343, for a wRC+ of 78 and 1.3 fWAR. He’ll turn 27 in March, has just over two years of service time and is therefore one season away from arbitration and four away from free agency. Alejandro Kirk also spent some time on the IL and only got into 60 games. He hit .242/.328/.436 for a wRC+ of 106 and 0.7 fWAR. He’ll turn 23 in November and has five years of team control remaining. On top of those three MLB-ready options, the club also has one of the best catching prospects in the majors in Gabriel Moreno. Baseball America lists him as the 8th overall prospect and the second-highest catcher, behind only Adley Rutschman. MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both have him as the 32nd overall prospect. Though he hasn’t reached the big leagues yet, he finished 2021 at Triple-A and will be appearing in this year’s Arizona Fall League. With the Blue Jays losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz to free agency, they could perhaps part with one of these catchers in exchange for one of the dozen or so starting pitchers that the Marlins have to offer.

Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud recently signed an extension, agreeing to stay in Atlanta through at least 2023, with a club option for 2024. With d’Arnaud seemingly lined up to be the go-to catcher for the next few years, that could put a squeeze on some of the other options in the organization. William Contreras is still a few months away from his 24th birthday but has gotten into 56 big-league games already. In that time, he’s hit .225/.308/.405, for a wRC+ of 89. He has six years of team control remaining. Waiver claim Chadwick Tromp is on hand as a depth option. And then there’s Shea Langeliers, the club’s best catching prospect. Baseball America ranks him the 68th best overall prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline has him 69th, and FanGraphs ranks him 52nd. He played most of this season at Double-A and even got into five Triple-A games. Despite already trading Alex Jackson to Miami a few months ago, they might be able to do line up on another deal.

Tigers: Eric Haase had a breakout campaign in 2021, his age-28 season. In 98 games, he bopped 22 homers and produced an overall line of .231/.286/.429, wRC+ of 100 and 1.0 fWAR. He has five years of team control remaining. Jake Rogers was enjoying a nice breakout before an injury shut him down, eventually leading to Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out for at least part of the 2022 campaign. In 38 games in 2021 before the injury, he hit .239/.306/.496, wRC+ of 115 and 1.0 fWAR. He also has five years of team control remaining. The club also has Dustin Garneau and Grayson Greiner on hand, who both made decent contributions in their limited action in 2021. There’s also the Dillon Dingler factor, as the prospect finished the season at Double-A. FanGraphs lists him as the 73rd-best prospect in baseball. Given all these competent options, they could subtract someone and still feel good about their situation behind the plate. Perhaps Miami would be willing to take on Rogers and give Alex Jackson a chance to prove himself until Rogers is healthy. Although they’ve been in rebuild mode for a few years, it seems like the Tigers will attempt to return to contention in 2022. They have lots of intriguing young arms but lost Wily Peralta to free agency and may not get anything from Spencer Turnbull or Matthew Boyd next year because of injuries. One of those Miami arms would make a great fit in Detroit.

Padres: The Friars have a couple of adequate catchers in the majors, Victor Caratini and Austin Nola. Caratini had a down year in 2021 but still has passable numbers of the past few campaigns. From 2019 to 2021, his overall line is .244/.327/.368, wRC+ of 86. 2022 will be his second of three arbitration years, with MLBTR projecting a salary of $2.1MM for the 28-year-old. Nola, on the other hand, is still a year away from arbitration and has four years of team control remaining. In 183 games over the past three seasons, his slash line is .271/.345/.435, for a wRC+ of 114 and 4.2 fWAR. And the picture gets crowded when we consider Luis Campusano. He’s ranked as the 32nd prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 37th by MLB Pipeline and 15th by FanGraphs. The 23-year-old has already had a cup of coffee at the majors, getting into 12 games for San Diego. Since they are running franchise-record payrolls of late, trading a catcher could be a way to upgrade their roster without breaking the bank.

Twins: Even with a terrible showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, Mitch Garver is still on a solid four-year run for the Twins. From 2018-2021, his line is .259/.344/.501, wRC+ of 125 and 6.3 fWAR. He has two seasons of team control remaining and is projected by MLBTR to earn $3.1MM in arbitration next year. Ryan Jeffers had a solid debut in 2020, but took a bit of a step backward in 2021. However, he’s still only 24 years old and comes with five years of control. His overall slash line between 2020 and 2021 is .221/.285/.407, producing a wRC+ of 88 and 1.1 fWAR in 111 games. They also have Ben Rortvedt on hand, who made his debut in 2021. He didn’t show much with the bat, but it was a small sample size of 39 games, and he has much better offensive numbers in the minors. He just turned 24 and has six years of team control remaining. He’s also left-handed, with Garver and Jeffers both being righties. 2021 was an awful campaign for the Twins but all indicators suggest they’re hoping to immediately return to competing in 2022. The rotation lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to injury, leaving plenty of room for a new acquisition.

Pirates: Pittsburgh hopes that its catcher of the future is Henry Davis, which is why they selected him first overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Baseball America ranks him as the 44th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 22nd and FanGraphs 27th. He’s likely still a few years away from reaching the big leagues, but the Pirates aren’t expected to compete in the interim. They could easily subtract someone like Jacob Stallings and sign a cheap veteran to take his place. Stallings turns 32 in December and has three years of club control remaining. As a Super Two player, he’s already gone through arbitration once, making $1.3MM in 2021. MLBTR projects he will double that to $2.6MM for 2022. He generally hits just below league average but adds value with his excellent defense. For instance, his 2021 slash line was .246/.335/.369, for a wRC+ of 95. But because of his defensive contributions, he was worth 2.6 fWAR on the year, which was double his previous best. One of the worst teams in baseball this season, the Pirates will be looking to stockpile as much young talent as they can in order to return to contention.

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal is entrenched as the primary catcher for the Pale Hose as he still has two years left on his contract. Yermin Mercedes had a tantalizing showing with the bat at the start of the season, but got squeezed out of playing time and eventually optioned down to the minors. Even when Grandal was on the injured list, the playing time went primarily to Seby Zavala and Zack Collins. In 68 games at the big-league level this year, Mercedes hit .271/.328/.404, for a wRC+ of 102. In 59 Triple-A games, the production was similar, as he slashed .275/.318/.464, wRC+ of 106. There was some scuttlebutt that Mercedes was unhappy with the organization, and he even briefly retired in July, only to quickly return. Perhaps a change of scenery would be beneficial to all parties. Mercedes will turn 29 in February but has six years of team control remaining. The White Sox have a solid rotation but will be losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.

Diamondbacks: Similar to the Pirates, the Diamondbacks are coming off a terrible year and probably considering any veteran-for-prospect arrangement they can find. Carson Kelly is coming off his first of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player, just like the aforementioned Jacob Stallings. However, Kelly is much younger, as he just turned 27 in July. He made $1.7MM in 2021 and is projected by MLBTR to make $3MM in 2022, with two years of team control after that. Over his three seasons in the desert, he’s hit .239/.333/.435, for a wRC+ of 99 and 3.8 fWAR.

Mariners: The Mariners have a bit of a crowd behind the plate. Tom Murphy is the most experienced of the bunch, as he has just over four years’ service time. Luis Torrens had a nice season in 2021, his age-25 campaign. He hit 15 homers and slashed .243/.299/.431 for a wRC+ of 101. He has four years of team control remaining. Cal Raleigh made his MLB debut in 2021. Although he didn’t hit much, he’s only 24 years old and has a better offensive track record in the minors. He’ll turn 25 in November and has six years of team control remaining. They also have Jose Godoy on hand as a depth option. The rotation will be without Tyler Anderson next year, as he heads to free agency. There’s also the giant unanswered question of Yusei Kikuchi, who had a great first half but slumped bad enough in the second half to lose his rotation spot. With famously trade-happy president like Jerry Dipoto, perhaps a catching-for-pitching swap could be discussed here.

Giants: Not so long ago, it didn’t seem there was any chance of the Giants picking up their $22MM club option on Buster Posey for 2022. But then 2021 happened. After sitting out the 2020 season, Posey showed didn’t show any rust. In fact, it seemed to rejuvenate him. His slash line on the season was .304/.390/.499, producing a wRC+ of 140, his highest such mark since 2014. Now it seems almost impossible for the club to turn that option down. That means that prospect Joey Bart is blocked for another year. He’s already seen his name floated in trade rumors before, and there was even a false report that he was part of the Kris Bryant trade. But he’s still in the Giants organization for now. Baseball America ranks him the 39th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 16th and FanGraphs 55th. He’s already gotten a cup of coffee at the majors and comes with six years of club control. He turns 25 years old in December.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan Schoop Trade

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After a 7-3 loss to the Twins on May 7, the Tigers were a dismal 9-24, and Jonathan Schoop was hitting only .185/.217/.250 through his first 115 plate appearances of the 2021 season.  Since that date, however, things have greatly improved for both player and team.  Detroit has quietly gone 31-27 over the last two-plus months, while Schoop’s revived bat has been a big part of that success — the veteran infielder has hit .320/.368/.567 with 14 homers over his last 253 PA.

While the AL Central is far from a strong division, the Tigers’ surge can probably be seen more as a positive step forward for a rebuilding team than it is a hint of a surprise second-half playoff push.  Fangraphs still gives the Tigers a zero percent chance of reaching the postseason, and the club is both 11.5 games out of a wild card berth and 15 games behind the first-place White Sox.  As solid as Detroit has been since that May 7 nadir, this is still a team that looks like it will be selling at the trade deadline, and an impending free agent like Schoop stands out as a likely candidate to be moved.

Schoop has spent the last two seasons in the Motor City on a pair of one-year free agent contracts, and delivered some solidly above-average offense.  The 29-year-old has hit .277/.322/.469 with 24 homers over 545 PA and 131 games in a Tigers uniform, good for a 113 wRC+ and 118 OPS+.  While the right-handed hitting Schoop has been solid against righty pitching, he has been particularly productive against left-handers this year, with an .880 OPS in 98 PA against southpaws.

Looking at the Statcast numbers, Schoop has a subpar .322 xwOBA, lower than his .337 wOBA.  While he is making more hard contact than last year, Schoop’s hard-hit percentage is still exactly middle of the pack in the 50th percentile.  Schoop has improved his strikeout rate (at least in comparison to the rest of the league) over his two years in Detroit, though he still isn’t walking much, as his lackluster 5.7% walk rate in 2021 actually represents a career high over a full season.

A second baseman for much of his nine-year MLB career, Schoop has actually been more of a regular at first baseman this year, as the Tigers have given youngster Willi Castro most of the playing time at the keystone.  This new position will only increase Schoop’s trade value to potential suitors, as an interested team could deploy Schoop at either first or second base depending on the need, or shuttle him between the two positions based on matchups.  Schoop also has shortstop experience but hasn’t played the position since 2018.

Cash-wise, Schoop would be a pretty inexpensive addition for small-market teams, or bigger-payroll clubs looking to avoid a luxury tax bill.  His one-year deal is worth $4.5MM, so only around $1.6MM of that salary would still be owed to Schoop by July 30.

Injuries, long winning/losing streaks, and other swaps could drastically shake up this list in the coming days, but at the moment, let’s examine which teams might be the best fits for a Schoop deal between now and the trade deadline.

The Other Rebuilders

We can safely rule out the Diamondbacks, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, and Marlins, since their attention will be focused on moving their own trade chips prior to the deadline.

On The Fringe

The Cubs, Cardinals, and Nationals are all under .500 and — according to Fangraphs — have less than a five percent chance at the playoffs.  Barring a big hot streak in the next two weeks, none of this trio will have much use for a rental player like Schoop, and could be selling players of their own.  (Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has already hinted that his team is more inclined to act as deadline sellers.)

The Braves are only slightly ahead with a 7.7% chance at a postseason berth, and Atlanta also has a losing record of 44-45.  Both the Nats and Braves might wait until pretty close to the last minute to sell since they’re still within striking distance in the NL East, though Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending ACL tear might realistically close the book on Atlanta’s chances.  Schoop is something of an imperfect fit anyway in Atlanta, as Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies have first and second base covered.

The Mariners are being given only a three percent chance at the playoffs, which perhaps seems a little slim considering Seattle is 48-43 and only 3.5 games back of a wild card slot (and seven games behind the Astros for the AL West lead).  Those low odds could speak more to the strength of the Astros and Athletics than a reflection of the Mariners’ talent, and if Seattle is still in the hunt by July 30, it wouldn’t be surprising to see aggressive GM Jerry Dipoto make an addition or two in an attempt to keep the Mariners’ postseason drought from reaching 20 seasons.  Schoop would be a nice upgrade for an M’s team that hasn’t gotten much from the second base position all year.

The Angels are behind the Mariners in the standings but are given a higher shot (14.5%) at the playoffs.  That might reflect the quality of the lineup reinforcements coming the Angels’ way, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton should all be back from the injured list prior to the deadline.  Jared Walsh and David Fletcher have first and second base covered for Los Angeles, though Walsh could potentially be moved back into right field duty in the event of a Schoop trade.  In all likelihood, however, the Angels are probably more likely to seek out pitching at the deadline rather than another right-handed hitter.

The Tigers and Indians aren’t frequent trade partners, and it remains to be seen whether Cleveland will be more apt to buy or sell at the deadline given all of its pitching injuries.  The Tribe have acted as both buyers and sellers at the deadline in recent years, however, and despite their struggles, they play in a weak division, have a 45-42 record, and sit 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Fangraphs only gives the Tribe a seven percent chance at the postseason, however, and the club has a very tough upcoming schedule, starting the second half with 10 games against the A’s, Astros, and Rays.  Beyond these factors, the Indians might also prefer to just stand pat with their current options at first and second base — powerful rookie Bobby Bradley has shown a lot of pop, while Cesar Hernandez has mostly gotten on track after a brutal April.

Not Great Fits

The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros are also teams with an abundance of right-handed hitting bats, filled first base/second base positions, and a greater need for pitching.  On paper, Toronto could get really creative and try Schoop (or even Semien) at third base, but that seems pretty far-fetched.  Now that Luke Voit is back from the IL, the Yankees are hopeful their first base issues have been solved, and DJ LeMahieu can now take over at second base.

The Reds likewise have Joey Votto and Jonathan India at first and second base, but given the team’s penchant for shaking up its infield alignment, Cincinnati can’t be entirely ruled out.  A scenario exists where Schoop is acquired, India is moved to third base and Eugenio Suarez is again moved to shortstop.  In all probability, this one is also a longshot, unless Mike Moustakas’ injury absence stretches even longer and the Reds feel the need for more infield help.

The Brewers love multi-positional players, and Schoop could provide help at second base (in the event of another Kolten Wong injury) or at first base, as Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw are both injured and Keston Hiura has largely had a brutal season apart from the last couple of weeks.  However, the Brewers already acquired Schoop back in 2018, as part of a deadline day trade with the Orioles.  Schoop struggled so badly over 46 games with the Brew Crew that the team non-tendered him after the season, so a reunion between the two sides seems unlikely.

Though Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and Tommy La Stella are on the injured list, the Giants already have a decent amount of infield depth even with this trio out of action.  Longoria and La Stella should both be back relatively soon while Belt is expected back at some point, even if his timeline is still uncertain.  Unless there’s a rehab setback somewhere, Schoop doesn’t look like a priority for San Francisco.

Slightly Better Fits

The Mets are known to be exploring more third base options, but the team could address the issue from within by acquiring Schoop to play second base and then moving Jeff McNeil into the third base mix.

The Rays and Dodgers each have an abundance of infielders, but neither team is shy about acquiring multi-positional depth, and might also prefer Schoop over less-experienced roster options.  Schoop could serve as a right-handed hitting complement to lefty swingers Ji-Man Choi and Brandon Lowe at first base and second base in Tampa, while L.A. could see Schoop’s addition as a way of freeing Chris Taylor to be deployed all over the diamond.

Sticking with the NL West, Schoop might be a better match with the Padres, who have left-handed hitters at first and second base in Eric Hosmer and Jake Cronenworth.  Schoop would very likely see more time at first base in this scenario, as Hosmer has struggled after a strong 2020 season.

The Phillies might have an infield opening with Alec Bohm sidelined by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, and Bohm has also struggled in his first full MLB season.  Jean Segura could be moved back to third base and Schoop installed at second, if Bohm needs a while to recover or if the Phils simply want to reduce his playing time for a more reliable veteran in Schoop.  The long history between Tigers GM Al Avila and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski could also help facilitate trade talks.

The Best Fits On Contending Teams?

No team has gotten less (by bWAR) from the first base position than the Red Sox, and Boston’s options have been further thinned since Marwin Gonzalez may begin the second half on the injured list.  Boston would probably prefer a left-handed addition to the lineup, but trading for Schoop is a simple way for the Sox to immediately upgrade what is pretty much the only real weak point in their lineup, and Schoop also provides some additional depth for Christian Arroyo at second base.

Matt Olson obviously has first base more than accounted for in the Oakland lineup, but the Athletics could use Schoop as part of their second base or designated hitter mix.  The A’s have gotten some nice results from the Jed Lowrie/Tony Kemp second base platoon, though Lowrie is always something of an injury risk and Kemp also gets a lot of playing time in the outfield.  Chad Pinder will be gone until well into August due to a hamstring injury, and Mitch Moreland simply hasn’t hit much this season as Oakland’s primary DH.  Schoop’s remaining salary is also manageable enough to fit into the Athletics’ limited budget.

The White Sox have had a vacancy at second base since Nick Madrigal was lost to a season-ending hamstring injury, and Schoop could also spell Jose Abreu at first base and see some time at DH.  While super-utilityman Leury Garcia has been a bright spot filling in at second, Schoop is a more proven option for a team that has serious postseason aspirations.  Chicago has already been linked to the likes of Trevor Story, Adam Frazier, and Eduardo Escobar in trade rumors, so the Sox clearly view the infield as a priority.  One obstacle — the Tigers and White Sox almost never make trades, with just a single swap between the two clubs since 1989.

The Best Fits For Nelson Cruz

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As the Twins’ miserable season has continued, there’s been increasing talk of them operating as a deadline seller over the next three weeks. Nearly every contender will ask about Jose Berrios. There’s been speculation about the availability of Taylor Rogers. Josh Donaldson has been connected to the Mets. Michael Pineda is a pending free agent who could help quite a few rotations.

Over the course of the next few weeks, though, Nelson Cruz will be one of the highest-impact trade candidates to monitor. The seemingly ageless slugger is having yet another excellent season, slashing .299/.372/.553 (147 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz’s 18.8 percent strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He just celebrated his 41st birthday, but he remains one of the game’s top threats at the plate.

Nelson Cruz | Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, playing out the 2021 campaign on a one-year, $13MM contract. As of this writing, there’s about $6MM remaining to be paid out on that pact. By the time the deadline rolls around, Cruz will be owed about $4.5MM for the remainder of the season.

A bat of Cruz’s caliber will surely be in demand, but perhaps not to the extent one would imagine at first glance. As a pure designated hitter, he’ll face a more limited market than most trade candidates.

A National League club could technically acquire Cruz to DH during interleague play and serve as a vastly overqualified pinch-hitter, but it’s unlikely anyone is going to put Cruz in the outfield with any regularity. He hasn’t played an inning of defense since 2018 and has just 54 innings in the field since the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. It’s hard to ever fully rule something out as front offices get increasingly creative, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that if Cruz is moved, it’ll be to an American League club.

Of course, not all 14 American League clubs will be in play. None of the Rangers, Royals, Tigers or Orioles are in contention. The Angels aren’t going to displace Shohei Ohtani from the DH slot, nor will the Astros do so with Yordan Alvarez. The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton serving as a primary DH. The Red Sox are enjoying the heck out of a resurgent J.D. Martinez campaign. The Indians have Franmil Reyes, and the Twins may not want to ship Cruz to a division rival anyhow.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that there’s a decent fit with the AL Central-leading White Sox. Yermin Mercedes faded considerably after a torrid start to the season and was optioned to Triple-A this week. But the Sox have Eloy Jimenez on a rehab assignment, and he’s likely to see at least some time at DH as he eases back into the mix after surgery to repair a ruptured pectoral tendon. It’s also generally hard to imagine the Twins trading Cruz to the White Sox in order to help the South Siders seal up a division title for which Minnesota originally hoped to contend.

There are a few clubs that seem like the clearest fits if the Twins move Cruz. Here’s a look at what each of these teams has received from the DH spot in its lineup in 2021, followed by a more thorough look at the potential fit.

  • Athletics: .220/.289/.381, 88 wRC+
  • Rays: .226/.314/.411, 103 wRC+
  • Blue Jays: .240/.321/.429, 104 wRC+
  • Mariners: .237/.320/.421, 108 wRC+

Athletics: No contender in the American League could use a DH upgrade more than Oakland. Their offseason signing of Mitch Moreland has resulted in a .238/.286/.388 batting line through 175 plate appearances to date. As a team, the A’s rank 12th in MLB with 394 runs scored — 94 fewer runs than the MLB-leading Astros, whom Oakland happens to be chasing in the division.

The question with the A’s, as always, is one of payroll capacity. For most of this past offseason, it looked as though the A’s wouldn’t spend much of anything on the 2021 roster. Their late signings of Moreland, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Rosenthal boosted payroll up to $86MM — still well below the league average but not quite the threadbare levels seen in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Whether ownership would dish out another several million to rent Cruz for two-plus months remains to be seen, but even if the salary is deemed steep, the A’s could always pay a little more in terms of prospect capital in order to get Minnesota to cover some (or all) of the contract.

Rays: The financial element is perhaps even more notable with the Rays, who are currently operating on just a $62MM payroll. Tampa Bay also has a better in-house option than Oakland in the form of Austin Meadows. The 26-year-old Meadows can and has played some corner outfield this season, but the Rays have more defensively gifted options in Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena and Brett Phillips.

Meadows has been the club’s primary designated hitter this year, logging 53 percent of the the Rays’ total DH plate appearances. On the whole, Meadows has been a productive hitter with a .243/.335/.485 batting line, 16 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple. However, he’s been mired in a down stretch at the plate, batting .231/.300/.374 over the past month. Cruz is an upgrade even over Meadows at his absolute best, but the Rays’ “need” for Cruz feels less acute than that of the Athletics.

Blue Jays: Adding Cruz to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Marcus Semien doesn’t really feel fair. Bringing Cruz into the fold would likely push Randal Grichuk back into a fourth outfielder role behind Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Early in the year, it would’ve been difficult to justify taking at-bats from Grichuk. He got out to a blistering start, batting .289/.322/.497 through the first two months. Since the calendar flipped to June, however, Grichuk is hitting .220/.244/.423 with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate in 127 plate appearances.

The Jays’ priority to this point has been the bullpen, and that will likely continue to be a point of focus for general manager Ross Atkins. That said, it never hurts to further strengthen an already potent lineup. If the prospect price for Cruz is to the Jays’ liking, they’re one of the few AL clubs that is both contending and has an easy path to carve out regular at-bats for the Boomstick. Unlike the A’s and Rays, money shouldn’t be an issue for them.

Mariners: A Cruz reunion tour with an unexpected contender in Seattle would make for a fun story for the final months of the season. Seattle is far from a postseason lock, but the Mariners are four games over .500 and just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. Much of the focus surrounding the Mariners has been on whether they’ll trade Mitch Haniger, but if they continue their hot streak — they’re 15-7 over their past 22 games — this is a club that could actually look to add some pieces.

The focus for Seattle would probably be on more controllable players who can help in 2022 and beyond. Starting pitching, in particular, will be the Mariners’ primary desire — as manager Scott Servais suggested this week. But if the Mariners can acquire Cruz without paying a price they feel will compromise a very promising long-term outlook, he’s a sensible upgrade. The move would be overwhelmingly popular with fans, and the Mariners have taken a potpourri approach at designated hitter this year anyhow. Ty France leads the team with an even 100 plate appearances as a DH, but he could be slotted into the lineup regularly at first base/second base for the balance of the 2021 campaign.

Looking For A Match In A Nolan Arenado Trade

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Nolan Arenado’s future in Colorado — or perhaps the lack thereof — will be one of the main storylines throughout the 2020-21 offseason. The 29-year-old has publicly voiced dissatisfaction with the organization in the past, and another poor season followed comments from owner Dick Monfort that foreshadow a tight-budgeted winter don’t figure to improve the relationship.

In this week’s Offseason Outlook for the Rockies, I laid out the reasons that trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some might think. On the surface, a five-time All-Star who has won eight Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons while hitting .293/.349/.541 and averaging nearly five WAR per season seems like a player who’d be highly in demand. As with any player, however, Arenado’s trade value is inextricably linked to his contractual status, and the franchise-record extension he signed in 2019 muddies the water.

Nolan Arenado | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arenado is still owed a hefty six years and $199MM between now and the 2026 season. He’s due $35MM in 2021, and his contract allows him to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM at season’s end. Any club that acquires Arenado recognizes there’s a chance he’ll only be around for one season. If Arenado plays at the level an acquiring team would hope for upon making the trade, that team knows there’s a chance he’ll opt out. The Covid-19 pandemic has obviously changed the financial outlook for many clubs and altered the sports economy, but Arenado would surely look at Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM contract and wonder whether he could approach that level with a big 2021 showing.

On the other hand, Arenado had his worst season ever at the plate in 2020 and finished the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness. That’s enough to already make some clubs wary, particularly because if that proves to be the start of a trend, they’d be stuck paying more than $33MM annually to a player on the decline. There’s no way Arenado opts out if he repeats this past season’s .253/.303/.454 output, so there’s inherent risk of being stuck with an albatross contract here.

A trade is further complicated by the fact that the Rockies would of course want to receive quality young talent in return. The optics of dumping Arenado simply to be rid of his salary would be extraordinarily poor for Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich. Given the risk associated with the contract and Arenado’s shaky 2020 campaign, it’s frankly difficult to imagine a team taking on Arenado’s contract and parting with considerable prospect capital. The Rockies might have to pay down some of the deal and/or take another sizable salary on in return if they hope to find a palatable trade.

As if that context doesn’t complicate matters enough, also consider that Arenado has a full no-trade clause baked into the deal. He may welcome the the opportunity for a fresh start, but it’s possible he’ll need to be incentivized to waive that clause as well. Topping things off is that he’s not even the only All-Star third baseman who could be moved this winter. The Cubs figure to seriously entertain the possibility of trading Kris Bryant. A former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP, Bryant is coming off a down season of his own but has a similar ceiling with none of Arenado’s long-term risk. Bryant is in his final year of arbitration and is a free agent next winter. Only one team can get Bryant, of course, so interested teams that miss out could turn to Arenado. It’s also possible that some clubs prefer the Arenado gamble — long-term risk and all. Regardless, Bryant’s presence on the market plays a factor in any potential Arenado talks.

Suffice it to say, trading Arenado is a daunting task for the Rockies. Based on name value alone, one might think nearly every team would be inclined to look, but the majority of clubs around the game can be written off almost immediately. We can rule out low-spending clubs like the Indians, Pirates, Rays, Athletics and Marlins, as Arenado’s contract would be considered too extravagant for their budgets. The D-backs are still paying Zack Greinke to play for someone else and traded Paul Goldschmidt away rather than meeting his $130MM extension price — far less than the $199MM owed to Arenado.

The Brewers already gave a mega-deal to Christian Yelich and wouldn’t risk a second one. The Angels signed Rendon to the aforementioned $245MM deal last winter, and the Twins are very likely out after inking Josh Donaldson for $92MM. Cincinnati has Eugenio Suarez at third base and probably couldn’t stomach paying a combined $60MM to Arenado and Joey Votto anyhow, as phonetically pleasing as that pairing might otherwise be. The Astros have Alex Bregman at third base and could conceivably move him to another position, but that’s a reach with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop. The Phillies look set at the corners with Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins.

We can also eliminate any clubs that are in the midst of a rebuild. The Rangers appear to be just starting down that road, and the Orioles aren’t far enough along in the process to consider a splash of this magnitude. The Tigers and Royals are hoping to soon emerge from rebuilding efforts, but this doesn’t seem likely for either unless it’s part of a sudden and unexpected all-in push. Elsewhere in the AL Central, the White Sox have a strong infield as is and would probably prefer to allocate resources to the rotation and/or right field. Maybe they could try Yoan Moncada in right, but Arenado is something of a square peg in a round hole for the South Siders.

Over in St. Louis, the Cardinals have been connected to a heavy-hitting third baseman for years, be it Arenado or Donaldson. It hasn’t come to pass yet, and while the need very arguably still exists after Matt Carpenter floundered through a tough 2020 season, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals adding a contract of this magnitude. This is the same team that just declined Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM option in the name of financial flexibility, and the same club that seems to be grappling with whether it can afford to re-sign franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. brazenly lamented the baseball industry’s lack of profitability earlier this spring and more recently offered a very reserved assessment of his club’s payroll outlook.

That’s a whole lot of teams that don’t seem likely to jump in on Arenado, so let’s turn to run through some clubs that might not be immediately ruled out.

Mets: Now backed by baseball’s richest owner and suddenly spared the $20.25MM they previously owed to Robinson Cano in 2021, the Mets are seemingly connected to every big fish on the free-agent and trade markets alike. Arenado would add an all-world defender to a club whose defense has been miserable for several years running. Incumbents J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil are solid options, but McNeil can play second with Cano suspended and Arenado should be a big upgrade over Davis. The Mets could conceivably even put Davis in a package to acquire Arenado, as he’d give the Rox a controllable, quality alternative with a nice bat.

Nationals: The loss of Rendon was clearly felt throughout the Nationals’ lineup in 2020, as Carter Kieboom wasn’t able to step up and fill the void. The Nats have Max Scherzer’s contract off the books after the 2021 season and could reallocate those long-term dollars to Arenado while entrusting Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin to front the rotation. Washington’s payroll ranks toward the top of the league on a yearly basis, and GM Mike Rizzo isn’t afraid to make high-priced splashes. Adding Arenado would block Kieboom at third base, perhaps pushing him to second base or making him expendable in a trade — be it this hypothetical deal or another swap.

Braves: The Braves don’t have a clear third baseman in light of Austin Riley’s struggles, making this a solid on-paper fit. However, this is the exact type of move general manager Alex Anthopoulos has avoided since coming to Atlanta. He eschewed a long-term commitment to Josh Donaldson despite considerable fan backlash and has yet to acquire any player on more than a three-year deal (Will Smith). The seven- and eight-year deals for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. were pre-arbitration bargains — the polar opposite of paying top-of-the-market value for a superstar already approaching his 30th birthday. Additionally, the club will likely still need to set aside some money to extend Freddie Freeman. This will be a frequently suggested landing spot for Arenado, but contextually, it doesn’t feel as strong as it looks at first glance.

Blue Jays: General manager Ross Atkins has already talked about acquiring “elite” players this winter, as the Jays have watched a strong young core emerge at the MLB level. Incumbent third baseman Travis Shaw is an obvious non-tender candidate, and while the Jays have some appealing youngsters down on the farm, a healthy Arenado is better than the ceiling of virtually any third base prospect. The Blue Jays quietly have quite a bit of financial flexibility, and if they could try to send Randal Grichuk back to Colorado as one of the pieces to offset a portion of the weight of Arenado’s contract (and fill a need for the Rockies at the same time).

Dodgers: A team with pockets as deep as the Dodgers and a farm system to match is of course going to be mentioned in connection to any high-profile trade target. They’ve been linked to Arenado in the past, and this morning while I was finishing this very piece, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote about their continued interest. Adding Arenado would effectively displace free agent Justin Turner, who is revered in the L.A. clubhouse, but at least for the moment, there’s a vacancy at the hot corner at Dodger Stadium. Of course, the Dodgers just locked up Mookie Betts on his own mega-deal and may not be keen on issuing another. And it’s anyone’s guess whether the Rockies would actually consider trading one of the best players in franchise history to a division nemesis.

Giants: Speaking of division rivals — the Giants look to be coming out of their own rebuilding effort and have the money to take on Arenado’s contract. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto will all be off the books after the 2021 season, leaving the long-term payroll outlook wide open. Veteran Evan Longoria is a roadblock at third base for the moment, but the Giants could send him back to Colorado as a means of both giving the Rockies a ready-made replacement and also offsetting some of the considerable cost they’d be taking on with Arenado’s contract. Younger talent would surely need to be added to make this appealing for the Rockies, of course. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has spoken of a focus on the pitching staff and only looking at “complementary” position players, but he’s also said he hopes to return to the playoffs as soon as 2021.

Padres: We might as well get a little weird and round out the division-rival trifecta with an off-the-wall Padres suggestion. The Friars already have Manny Machado and his $300MM contract at third base and young superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. There were at least rumblings of potentially moving Tatis to the outfield in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition by the Padres, however. Adding Arenado would require an even more elaborate position shuffle, with Machado going back to shortstop and Tatis moving to the outfield grass. It’s a long shot that would likely require the Rockies taking a bad contract back — e.g. Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer — with the Padres chipping in some notable young talent. We’ve all learned by now not to count San Diego general manager A.J. Preller out of any scenario, but there’d be a whole lot of moving parts to get Arenado down to the Gaslamp Quarter.

Yankees: Like the Dodgers, the Yankees are almost an obligatory entrant in these types of exercises. They’re looking to pare back payroll this winter after spending at record levels in 2020, and their primary focus appears to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu. Arenado would be a luxury rather than a necessity — and a risky one at that — but the Yankees aren’t short on MLB-ready talent they could send back. Either of Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar could appeal to the Rockies, and the team has some young pitching to work in as well. Arenado would be a tough fit with both Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton both on the books long-term, of course.

Cubs: It seems unlikely that the Cubs would take on a major contract after consecutive offseasons of effectively sitting out free agency. Owner Tom Ricketts has spent two years claiming not to have additional resources to allocate to the roster and earlier this summer proclaimed that ownership losses during the pandemic have been “biblical” in nature. The Cubs just laid off 100-some employees, per The Athletic. But they’re also expected to be active in reshaping the roster under new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, and they could jettison enough salary that cramming Arenado onto the books doesn’t seem impossible. Some combination of Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish and Willson Contreras could be moved this winter. Fitting Arenado into the picture still could be a stretch, though.

Red Sox: Boston already has Rafael Devers at the hot corner, but there’s been some speculation about him sliding across the diamond due to defensive struggles at third base. It’s admittedly tough to see the Red Sox taking on a contract like this less than one year after trading Mookie Betts and dumping David Price’s contract in order to limbo under the luxury tax line, but they’re a big-market team with huge payroll capabilities and probably don’t want to be a division afterthought for too long.

Mariners: Saving the most fun suggestion for last, let’s not overlook Jerry Dipoto’s ability to surprise the baseball world. “Trader Jerry” has rebuilt this organization’s farm system in a matter of two years and brought a number of interesting young players to Seattle — many of whom have now reached the Majors. Adding Arenado to an infield that already has two young Gold Glove winners in J.P. Crawford and Evan White would give the club a defense for the ages, and before anyone questions whether Seattle can afford to pay Arenado $33MM per year, consider that as of 2022, the only players on the books for the M’s are Marco Gonzales ($5.75MM) and White ($1.4MM). Bringing Arenado into the mix likely pushes Kyle Seager to designated hitter for the final year of his contract, which might be for the best given his declining defensive metrics.

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That’s a whole lot of words on trading Arenado, but it’s important to remember that a deal coming together shouldn’t be considered a given. Arenado is not a Francisco Lindor-esque guarantee to be traded prior to Opening Day due to the complexity of his contract and the difficulty the Rockies will have getting what they’d deem fair value in return. Any of the highlighted teams at the end of this exercise could emerge as a rumored trade partner, though some are obvious reaches. In my view, the best clubs for the Rockies to work with are the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and, yes, the Mariners. That’s not to say any of those clubs are in talks or are likely to acquire him, however.

Of course, any trade depends on the extent to which those clubs believe Arenado can rebound from a mediocre year at the plate and the extent to which they’re willing to gamble on the glaring downside that is inherently woven into his contract. Trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some will make it out to be this winter, but it’s a reality the Rockies will have to explore.

Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade

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The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…

Yankees

  • New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.

Mets

  • This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.

Angels

  • Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher’s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Braves

  • The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.

Phillies

  • Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.

Dodgers

  • Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.

Blue Jays

  • Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.

Reds

  • A Lindor pursuit could  be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.

Athletics

  • The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.

Twins

  • Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.

Cubs

  • The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.

Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade

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First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox.  As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode.  While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.

This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.”  And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021.  For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.

Mookie BettsBetts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019.  After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process.  Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).

That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own.  Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most.  Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.

With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems.  There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December.  Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer.  That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.

Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…

No Chance

The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding.  And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.

Probably Not

The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts.  Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston.  The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest.  The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts.  Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).

I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville.  But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns.  Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.

Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition

The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic.  The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros’ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players.  The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.

While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments.  Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.

Makes Some Sense

I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts).  It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.

The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion.  If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.

As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system.  Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.

The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode.  It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.

The Win-Now Teams

Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.

As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason.  Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022.  The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen.  Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.

Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season.  Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams.  Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system.  Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move?  Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.

The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target.  Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more.  Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.

The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market.  That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job.  Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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