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Looking For A Match In A Trade

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

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A year and a half ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined potential trade partners for the Cubs as they reportedly shopped center fielder Cody Bellinger ahead of the 2023 trade deadline. Chicago, of course, played their way back into contention and opted to hold onto Bellinger through the remainder of the year before signing him to a three-year, $80MM deal last winter that afforded Bellinger the opportunity to opt out after either the 2024 or ’25 seasons. With rookies Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch having emerged as the club’s everyday options at center field and first base, however, Bellinger’s fit in Chicago has become much murkier headed into 2025.

That’s led them to once again explore a trade involving the outfielder, but the market for Bellinger’s services figures to be much softer this time around. Bellinger slashed an incredible .317/.367/.545 (144 wRC+) in 324 plate appearances prior to last year’s trade deadline while playing center field on a regular basis for the Cubs, making him the most attractive rental hitter on the market at that time. Flash forward to today, and Bellinger is coming off a much less robust offensive performance: while his strikeout (15.6%) and walk (7.9%) rates remained excellent in 2024, his power dipped substantially and he didn’t enjoy the same luck on balls in play he did the year prior, leaving him with a .266/.325/.426 slash line that was still above average (109 wRC+) but a far cry from the production that earned him down-ballot MVP consideration in his first year as a Cub.

That production, solid as it may be, is not in line with the $27.5MM salary Bellinger is poised to earn in 2025. What’s more, any acquiring club would be on the hook for a $25MM player option for 2026 (or a $5MM buyout should Bellinger test free agency) that only serves to increase the potential financial burden associated with trading for Bellinger. With that being said, the 29-year-old remains an above average hitter who is capable of playing solid defense at all three outfield spots and first base, making him a solid option for teams looking to raise the floor in their lineup. For teams looking for a solution in center, specifically, Bellinger may well prove to be the best option available in a market that is otherwise led by the light-hitting, glove-first Harrison Bader. Even among first baseman, Bellinger looks to be one of the better options available when compared to a free agent class that features aging veterans like Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Justin Turner among its best options.

Bellinger’s combination of a quality lefty bat that needn’t be part of a platoon and the ability to play both center field and first base make him a compelling trade target for a surprising number of teams. Of course, his hefty salary will immediately eliminate many clubs from consideration. The Twins, Guardians, Royals, Rays, Padres, and Rockies all seem like long shots to stomach an AAV north of $26MM this year. The White Sox and Marlins are in the midst of lengthy rebuilds and seem unlikely to spend that sort of money on a short-term player like Bellinger, as well. It would be a surprise to see the Cubs deal Bellinger to a division rival while attempting to contend for the postseason, which eliminates the Reds, Brewers, Pirates, and Cardinals from consideration.

Additionally, the Rangers are already loaded with talent both in the outfield and at first base, and the Mariners have signaled they don’t intend to add to their outfield this winter. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Orioles, and Tigers could pursue help in at least one of Bellinger’s positions but appear more likely to pursue right-handed hitters who can better balance their heavily left-handed lineups. The Dodgers and Mets are decent enough surface level fits, but appear more likely to pursue a more offensively impactful corner bat given their internal options in center field. That still leaves ten teams as plausible fits for a Bellinger trade, though. Let’s take a look at each of them…

Best Fits:

  • Astros: The Astros currently have bigger fish to fry as they attempt to retain franchise third baseman Alex Bregman. With Houston self-admittedly requiring some “creativity” to add salary, it seems likely that a Bregman reunion could leave the club without the funds necessary to deal for Bellinger. With that said, though, Bellinger’s ability to play all three outfield spots and first base should make him an attractive option for Houston that would allow them to play match-ups with Jon Singleton, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick by slotting Bellinger in at the position of whichever player is on the bench that day. What’s more, the Cubs’ need for bullpen help this winter and their hesitance to commit to long-term deals for relievers could make veteran reliever Ryan Pressly an attractive target for them in terms of a return while also clearing $14MM off the Astros’ books to facilitate other additions.
  • Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are in the thick of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and like the other Soto suitors on this list would likely only have interest in Bellinger should they fail to land the offseason’s top free agent. In the event Soto signs elsewhere, however, Toronto may be among the best fits for Bellinger out there. The club has previously expressed interest in Bellinger during both of his recent forays into free agency, and if the Jays fail to land Soto he could make plenty of sense for the club as an upgrade to their current options in left field who wouldn’t require the sort of long-term contract that could complicate the club’s pursuit of a long-term deal with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto outfielders posted a lackluster wRC+ of just 87 last year, meaning even Bellinger’s diminished 109 figure from this past season would be a substantial upgrade to say nothing of the impact he could have should his power production bounce back in 2025.
  • Phillies: The Phillies haven’t been shy about their hopes of restructuring their offense this winter, and rumors have already begun to swirl regarding the availability of key members of their offense ranging from Alec Bohm to Nick Castellanos. One clear area where the Phils could stand to upgrade is in the outfield, where the club currently figures to utilize Castellanos, Johan Rojas, and Brandon Marsh on a regular basis. Philadelphia’s 92 wRC+ in the outfield last year was lackluster, however, and each of those aforementioned options posted a wRC+ lower than that of Bellinger last year. By adding Bellinger to the lineup as an everyday player who splits time between left and center field, the Phillies would be able to effectively platoon Marsh and Rojas while still playing both at their respective best positions, while a free agent corner bat such as Jurickson Profar or Tyler O’Neill would require Marsh to play center field on a regular basis.
  • Yankees: The Yankees figure to focus their efforts this winter on reuniting with Soto, but if the club misses out him they’ll have holes to fill both in the outfield and at first base. Signing Bellinger could allow the Yankees to move Aaron Judge back to right field on a regular basis, where he profiles best defensively and where he’ll likely suffer less wear-and-tear throughout the season. While Soto’s departure is surely the most likely avenue to Bellinger in a Yankees uniform, their hole at first base and the possibility that Jasson Dominguez isn’t ready for an everyday job in the majors make the club at least a plausible fit for his services even if they bring Soto back, with Bellinger playing the outfield until Dominguez is ready to take over before shifting to first base. Such a scenario figures to be a long shot, however, given Dominguez’s stature within the organization as a long-time top prospect.

Next Tier Down:

  • Angels: The Angels have been among the more aggressive teams so far this winter as they look to contend following a 99-loss season in 2024. They’ve already added Jorge Soler to the lineup as a regular DH and Travis d’Arnaud as depth behind Logan O’Hoppe at catcher, but the club reportedly remains interested in adding another bat to their lineup. Bellinger is as good a fit for the club’s roster as any outfielder. The team is light on lefty bats, with only Nolan Schanuel at first base and the switch-hitting Luis Rengifo at second projected to be in the club’s starting lineup next year. Bellinger would be a substantial upgrade over the Jo Adell/Mickey Moniak platoon the Halos currently project to use in right field, and could slide seamlessly over to center field to either give Mike Trout a break from the demanding position or cover for him in the event he suffers another injury-plagued season in 2025.
  • Athletics: While the presence of the A’s on this list might strike some as surprising given how they’ve operated in recent years, there’s at least some merit in considering Bellinger’s fit in West Sacramento. All indications have pointed towards the A’s being open to a substantial increase to their payroll this winter and an earnest effort to improve their on-the-field product in the years leading up to their impending move to Las Vegas, but their current stadium situation could make courting free agents difficult due to the club playing in a minor league ballpark for the time being. That’s led GM David Forst to suggest the club is focused on the trade market rather than free agency as they look to upgrade the roster, and Bellinger could be quite a strong fit among trade candidates. He’s unlikely to be especially expensive in terms of trade capital, meaning that swinging a deal for him wouldn’t do much damage to the club’s long-term competitiveness, and the former MVP could offer a level of star power the club currently lacks. Meanwhile, he’d be a major upgrade on the field for a club that’s relying on Seth Brown and his 91 wRC+ last year in left field headed into 2025.
  • Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks figure to have plenty of room to add a player like Bellinger to their positional mix after losing Christian Walker and Joc Pederson to free agency this winter. While the club’s lineup leans left-handed, the loss of Pederson could make them more open to the addition of another lefty bat than other heavily-lefty clubs like the Red Sox and Orioles. The addition of Bellinger could also make it easier for the club to stomach the loss of one of their many young outfielders via trade, particularly as he shares an ability to play center with trade candidates Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas. While Bellinger’s salary could be a problem for the Diamondbacks in theory, it’s much easier to imagine them stomaching his contract if they’re able to move the salary of southpaw Jordan Montgomery this winter, as the club is seemingly quite motivated to do after negative comments from club owner Ken Kendrick about the lefty’s disastrous 2024 season.

Longer Shots:

  • Braves: It would be something of a surprise to see the Braves swing a trade for Bellinger despite the hole in their lineup in left field. The club has been aggressive in making moves to clear payroll room as they stare down the possibility of losing Max Fried from their rotation, and while it’s easy to imagine them dedicating those resources to a splash at shortstop for a player like Willy Adames, using that financial capital to acquire Bellinger would be a surprise given the availability of more affordable depth options in the outfield such as Austin Hays and Mike Tauchman who could join Jarred Kelenic in the mix for starts in left field without breaking the bank. With that being said, the Braves have shown a willingness to add significant salary on short-term arrangements with players like Marcell Ozuna and Josh Donaldson in the past, and it’s difficult to count out a GM as unpredictable as Alex Anthopoulos for most trade scenarios.
  • Giants: The Giants have long been in search of star power for their lineup, and while Bellinger does not carry the same level of impact as he did during his MVP days with their arch-rival Dodgers, he would still add an everyday player with significant name recognition to a relatively non-descript San Francisco lineup. Aside from that surface level fit, however, the Giants lost Michael Conforto to free agency earlier this winter and fellow outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is viewed as a trade candidate. Adding Bellinger, then, could offer the club an alternative to Conforto and Yaz in the outfield to pair with Jung Hoo Lee and the club’s crop of young outfielders. With that being said, a fit with the Giants appears unlikely given the fact that the club is currently expected to scale back its payroll this year, a goal with which adding Bellinger’s hefty salary would be misaligned.
  • Nationals: Given the Nationals’ many quality young outfielders, they aren’t necessarily the most straightforward landing spot for Bellinger. With that being said, however, the club has a massive hole at first base that Bellinger could slide into quite easily, providing a boost to a lineup that appears to be on the cusp of contention. Bellinger would also be able to take some pressure off of the club’s crop of young outfielders, offering an alternative to Jacob Young in center against tough right-handers and providing a back-up option in the corners should either James Wood or Dylan Crews struggle at some point in their first wire-to-wire big league campaigns.

Looking For A Match In A Jorge Polanco Trade

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The Twins saw a variety of youngsters take significant steps forward in 2023 en route to their first victory in a postseason series since 2002, and perhaps none of those were more impactful than the breakouts of Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. Long a top prospect whose career had been stalled by injuries, Lewis burst onto the scene in 2023 and slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and six stolen bases in just 239 trips to the plate last season while playing excellent defense at third base. Julien, by contrast, lacked Lewis’s prospect pedigree but put together perhaps an even more impressive rookie campaign. The 24-year-old slashed .263/.381/.459 in 408 trips to the plate as the club’s primary second baseman in 2023, with an incredible 15.7% walk rate that only Aaron Judge, Cavan Biggio, Joc Pederson, and Juan Soto managed to eclipse among rookie hitters (min. 400 PA) in the 21st century.

The incredible performances from both Lewis and Julien leave the Twins set up for success around in the infield for years to come, particularly if Carlos Correa manages to regain his All Star form and top prospect Brooks Lee is able to find similar success when he reaches the big leagues, which could happen as soon as 2024. This excess of infield talent has left longtime second baseman Jorge Polanco to face a great deal of uncertainty this offseason. The Twins haven’t been shy about their plans to cut payroll this offseason, and with each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle having signed elsewhere this offseason after departing for free agency last month, the club is facing uncertanity in the rotation.

As such, dealing away the club’s longest-tenured player could allow Minnesota to leverage an area of considerable depth to fill out its pitching staff, while also saving $10.5MM in salary next season that could potentially be used to acquire even more pitching. That logic convinced MLBTR readers that Polanco should be dealt according to a poll back in October, where more than 56% voted in favor of the Twins dealing Polanco.

Given the clear incentives for the Twins to at least consider a Polanco trade, it’s hardly a surprise that the 30-year-old has garnered trade interest as recently as earlier this month from rival clubs. Even as the longtime infielder appears to be on the verge of getting squeezed out of the Twins’ infield mix, Polanco is still a quality everyday player. While he was limited to just 80 games this past season due to injuries, the switch-hitter nonetheless slashed a solid .255/.335/.454 (118 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and DH in 2023.  That line is consistent with the numbers Polanco has posted throughout his time as an everyday player in the majors. Since he broke out as an above-average regular back in 2019, the infielder has slashed .267/.337/.458 with a wRC+ of 117. That’s good for ninth among qualified second baseman during that time span, just ahead of household names such as Gleyber Torres and Ozzie Albies.

While Polanco doesn’t generate much value with his glove, typically earning below-average marks by Outs Above Average and roughly average marks by Defensive Runs Saved, he makes up for it with his consistent, above-average offense and would be a clear upgrade for virtually any team in need of infield help ahead of the 2024 season. Further adding to Polanco’s value is his relatively affordable contract situation. As previously mentioned, Polanco is due just $10.5MM in 2024, an amount the majority of buying clubs should be able to stomach without much issue. What’s more, Polanco is not a pure rental thanks to a $12MM club option for 2024 that carries a fairly modest buyout of $750K.

Taken together, Polanco’s switch-hitting bat, offensive consistency, and affordable team control are surely an enticing package to plenty of clubs, even in spite of Polanco’s recent injury history and lackluster defense. With that said, which teams are the best fits for his services? The Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees all appear more or less set around the infield, while the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, and White Sox all appear unlikely to spend significant money and prospect capital on a short-term infield solution. That still leaves nine teams as viable fits for Polanco’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Blue Jays: The Jays have a clear need around the infield after losing Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman to free agency, even after adding Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The club also recently lost their primary source of left-handed offense due to the departure of Brandon Belt. Polanco could help alleviate both of those issues as a switch-hitter who could add some pop to the lineup from the left side while slotting in as the club’s everyday second baseman, with the likes of Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Santiago Espinal left to compete for the third base job alongside Kiner-Falefa. Meanwhile, mercurial right-hander Alek Manoah could surely entice the Twins as a potential return given his significant upside and the ability of depth starter Louie Varland to step into the rotation should Manoah struggle to regain the form he showed in 2022, when he was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award.
  • Cubs: Few teams got worse production from their third base corps in 2023 than the Cubs, who needed to plug the hole by trading for Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline last summer. With Candelario now suiting up for Cincinnati, the Cubs are once again left with a hole at third base and a dearth of left-handed pop in their lineup. The addition of Polanco could address both of those concerns; while the veteran infielder has primarily played second base during his career, he looked decent at the position when covering for Royce Lewis this past season and the Cubs had little issue converting Nick Madrigal from the keystone to the hot corner last spring. In exchange for Polanco’s services, the Cubs could dangle a young pitching prospect such as Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill this offseason.
  • Mariners: After shipping Eugenio Suarez to Arizona earlier in the winter, the Mariners have plenty of room to improve upon their infield mix. Josh Rojas and Luis Urias are currently slated for everyday roles at second and third base, though the pair are likely better served platooning with each other. That opens the door for another infield addition, and Polanco could fit the bill as an everyday player at either position. While the switch-hitter is unlikely to net the Twins a young starter like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller in trade (at least by himself), it’s possible a deal could come together centered around a less proven arm like Emerson Hancock.

Next Tier Down:

  • Brewers: The Brewers have as significant of needs around the infield as any team, with little certainty anywhere outside of Willy Adames. Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio appear to be the club’s current best options at second and third base respectively, but adding Polanco would give a significant boost to the club’s offense while taking pressure off the aforementioned pair of youngsters. While Milwaukee is as good of a fit as any club for Polanco’s services, the recent departures of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser leave the Brewers seemingly unlikely to further weaken their rotation depth by trading a starter to Minnesota. Meanwhile, the club’s many outfielders likely hold little appeal for the Twins, who have a deep outfield mix of their own already.
  • Giants: The Giants, at least on paper, have a fairly solid infield mix that includes J.D. Davis, Thairo Estrada, and Wilmer Flores. With that being said, the club has been connected to free agency’s top infielder in Matt Chapman this winter, and Polanco could be a reasonable fallback option for San Francisco to improve their offensive production on the infield dirt should they fail to land Chapman. The club also has a handful of interesting young pitchers like Tristan Beck who they could consider dealing, though the club is seemingly hoping to land a player with more star power than Polanco provides this winter.
  • Marlins: The Marlins are seemingly perpetually interested in acquiring hitting reinforcements by leveraging their deep group of pitchers, and it appears this offseason is no different as the likes of Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Trevor Rogers have all found their names in the rumor mill. What’s more, the sides got together on just this sort of deal last offseason, when the Twins landed Pablo Lopez in exchange for Luis Arraez. Polanco would be something of a tricky positional fit for the Miami, though they could conceivably move Josh Bell to DH and shift Arraez back to first, opening up second base for Polanco.

Longer Shots:

  • Mets: The Mets appeared to be content with their infield mix as recently as earlier this month, when it appeared that Joey Wendle, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos would compete for playing time at third base while Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso remained at their usual positions. That all changed when Mauricio suffered a torn ACL while playing winter ball, throwing the club’s infield plans into chaos. Even so, the Mets and Twins are something of an imperfect fit as trade partners. While Polanco’s two years of team control seemingly fits New York’s current strategy of making short-term additions that won’t encumber the team in the long haul, Polanco doesn’t offer the quality glove Mauricio did and his switch-hitting bat is likely less attractive given the number of lefty-swinging infielders the Mets already have at their disposal.
  • Pirates: The Pirates evidently are looking to add a second baseman to their infield mix given their reported interest in a reunion with Adam Frazier, and the addition of Polanco would likely move the needle far more for the fourth-place club in 2024 should they hope to contend for the NL Central this season. The addition of Polanco would offer some veteran consistency to a young offense that dealt with extreme peaks and valleys throughout the 2023 campaign, and his 118 wRC+ last year would’ve been the best on Pittsburgh’s offense last year. With that being said, the Pirates still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the NL Central in 2024, and their rotation has even more question marks than Minnesota’s, rendering them unlikely to deal away a rotation piece like the Twins figure to seek.
  • Royals: Trades within a division are exceptionally rare, particularly when both clubs are seemingly hoping to contend in the coming season. With that being said, there’s at least an on-paper fit between the Royals and Twins for a Polanco deal. Kansas City needs offense even after adding Hunter Renfroe in free agency earlier this month, and Polanco would represent a massive upgrade over Michael Massey at the keystone. Meanwhile, the Royals could offer a package centered around a young arm like Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh who may be squeezed out of the club’s rotation mix by the recent additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City and Minnesota got together on a notable trade as recently as last offseason, when the Royals sent Michael A. Taylor to the Twins in exchange for a pair of relief prospects.

Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade

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Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.

With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.

Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.

Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.

Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.

The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).

At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.

If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.

Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.

Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…

Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.

Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.

Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).

D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.

Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.

Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.

Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.

Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.

Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.

Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.

Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.

—

Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.

Looking For A Match In An Eloy Jimenez Trade

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The White Sox appear likely to be among the most active teams on the trade market this offseason. On the heels of a 101-loss campaign that spurred a change in front office leadership, freshly-minted GM Chris Getz has made clear that the club is operating with no untouchables this offseason, a stance the club backed up by dealing left-hander Aaron Bummer to the Braves last week in a six-player deal. While right-hander Dylan Cease figures to garner plenty of attention as a potential trade chip, he was far from the only player hailing from the south side of Chicago to land on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates. Cease clocked in at #6 on that list, but just a few spots lower at #12 is slugger Eloy Jimenez, who the club acquired alongside Cease in the deal that sent Jose Quintana to the north side back in 2017.

Getz has made no secret of the fact that Jimenez is available this offseason, noting publicly that teams are interested in his services while adding that “it just has to make sense for both sides” in order for a deal to come together this winter. While Jimenez once looked to be a potential franchise cornerstone in left field, his star has dimmed in recent years due to injuries and under-performance. Since the start of the 2021 season, Jimenez has appeared in just 259 games between multiple hamstring issues and an appendectomy. That translates to just 53.3% of the Chicago’s regular season contests over that span.

When Jimenez has managed to take the field, he’s alternated flashes of greatness with relative mediocrity; though he posted strong numbers in the shortened 2020 campaign and in his 84-game 2022 season, with wRC+ figures of 138 and 143 respectively, Jimenez’s performance in both 2021 and 2023 was far more pedestrian. 2023, in particular, saw Jimenez slash just .272/.317/.441 (105 wRC+) with 18 homers in 489 trips to the plate. While those numbers are decent, they’re a far cry from what you’d expect from a player best suited as a full-time DH who is guaranteed $16MM in 2024 between a $13MM salary and a $3MM buyout on a 2024 club option.

In spite of Jimenez’s flaws, however, there’s plenty of reason for rival clubs to have interest in his services. After all, the 2022 season showed what a threat he can be at the plate when he’s right, as he hit .295 and crushed 16 homers in just 327 plate appearances all while walking at a respectable 8.6% clip. If a club manages to get Jimenez back on track, they’d have a All Star caliber slugger under relatively affordable team control for three seasons; Jimenez’s contract includes a pair of club options for the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, valued at $16.5MM and $18.5MM respectively. Jimenez also has youth on his side, as he’ll play next season at age-27 after celebrating his birthday next week.

So, which teams could make sense as potential partners for the White Sox in a Jimenez trade? The Royals, Twins, Guardians, and Tigers are all fairly easy to eliminate due to the rarity of in-division deals involving players of Jimenez’s magnitude. The Rockies, A’s, Nationals, and Pirates are all fairly unlikely to compete in 2024, while the Yankees, Giants and Phillies are all relatively set at DH heading into next season. The Padres, Rays, Reds, Cardinals and Orioles all figure to focus more on adding pitching rather than stacking up additional bats this offseason. The Blue Jays, Cubs and Astros all appear more likely to target left-handed additions to the lineup than a righty slugger like Jimenez, to say nothing of the questionable optics of dealing Jimenez back to the north side. A look at each of the other ten teams…

Best Fits:

  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champions figure to attempt to improve upon their 84-win campaign in 2023, and have already added Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner in pursuit of that goal. While Suarez and Christian Walker give them some much-needed thump from the right-hand side, Arizona still has a clear vacancy at DH that Jimenez would be a solid option to fill. Meanwhile, the Snakes are deep in young, affordable players like Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher who could be of interest to a White Sox club looking for upgrades in virtually all areas of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle’s lineup took a hit in the aforementioned Suarez deal and the addition of Jimenez, who could slide into the DH slot vacated by the recently non-tendered Mike Ford, could help to return some thump to the club’s lineup. While Jimenez profiles best as a DH, he could also theoretically chip in on occasion in left field, where the Mariners currently lack a permanent solution and figure to rely on the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty, and Dylan Moore. While Seattle’s young arms are likely too valuable to deal for Jimenez, it’s possible the White Sox could target a post-hype youngster like Taylor Trammell in a deal with the Mariners.
  • Marlins: Miami is among the best fits for Jimenez, as evidenced by their interest in his services at this year’s trade deadline. With righty slugger Jorge Soler having departed the club in favor of free agency, the addition of Jimenez would fill the void left by Soler at a price point not far above the $12MM AAV Soler would’ve been on the books for in 2024 had he not opted out of his deal. In exchange, the Sox could look to add one of Miami’s many young infielders without a clear path to playing time such as Jacob Amaya, Jordan Groshans, or Xavier Edwards.

Next Tier Down:

  • Angels: While the Angels are surely going to make every effort to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, the expectation around the league is that he will depart for another club this offseason. Should that reality come to pass, Jimenez could make sense as a replacement DH should the club have hopes of contending in 2024 without Ohtani on the team. That being said, the Halos already largely emptied out their farm system over the summer in a failed bid to reach the postseason while Ohtani was still under contract, and it’s unclear if they would be willing to part with even more young talent in hopes of contending in 2024.
  • Brewers: Much like the Marlins, the Brewers were connected to Jimenez at this year’s trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why: Brewers hitters posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 2023, including a pathetic 79 wRC+ from the club’s DH slot. Jimenez would make for a massive improvement on that, and could make sense for Milwaukee if they look to continue contending in 2024. That being said, the club has already lost Craig Counsell and Brandon Woodruff from their 2023 squad and could deal more talent before the offseason is done. Given the uncertainty surrounding the club, it’s anyone’s guess if Jimenez and his $13MM salary in 2024 still fit into Milwaukee’s plans.
  • Mets: With the Mets seemingly facing an uncertain future of their own, they’re hardly an obvious pick for Jimenez’s services this offseason. That being said, Jimenez seems unlikely to require an exorbitant prospect cost in trade given his recent struggles, and the Mets could be among the teams best positioned to take a gamble on him. Jimenez’s salary would hardly be a needle-mover for the big-spending Mets, and Jimenez could be a stalwart slugger at DH for two more seasons if things go well in 2024, providing some protection for the club should Pete Alonso depart in free agency next offseason.
  • Red Sox: Boston’s primary DH this season was Justin Turner, who returned to free agency earlier this month. With a hole at DH and an offense that posted a wRC+ of just 99 in 2023, it’s easy to see how Jimenez could be a fit for Boston. That being said, the Red Sox are seemingly more focused on pitching additions than adding to their hitting corps, and left fielder Masataka Yoshida’s rough defensive metrics in left field could indicate that sliding him into the DH slot and giving outfield reps to youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could be the club’s ideal solution.

Longer Shots:

  • Braves: While the Braves have a clear need for an additional bat in their left field/DH mix following the departure of Eddie Rosario, both Jimenez and incumbent slugger Marcell Ozuna are best served as full-timers in the DH slot. What’s more, the Braves appear focused on improving their pitching staff, without much clarity on their available payroll space. There figure to be cheaper options available on the outfield market than Jimenez who may better fit Atlanta’s needs, even if they likely lack the upside of Jimenez.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers certainly make sense as a potential suitor for Jimenez on paper given their vacancy at DH, but it’s an open secret that the club’s top priority this offseason is Shohei Ohtani. What’s more, the appears to be mutual interest in a reunion with DH-only slugger J.D. Martinez in the event that Ohtani lands elsewhere, meaning that a deal for Jimenez would likely be a Plan C for the Dodgers, barring a willingness to give him an everyday role in left field.
  • Rangers: The reigning World Series champions have been extremely aggressive in recent offseason as they looked to upgrade their club, and without a surefire DH option for the 2024 season it would be foolish to entirely count them out from swinging a deal for Jimenez. That being said, a reunion with Mitch Garver could make more sense for the Rangers if they want a regular player at DH, while the presence of super-utility youngster Ezequiel Duran could allow them to use the DH slot to afford regular players in both the infield and outfield partial rest days. Either option could be preferable for the Rangers to committing significant cash to Jimenez, particularly given their pitching needs and the potential revenue uncertainty facing the club next season.

Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Looking For A Match In A Manuel Margot Trade

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With the Rays facing a projected payroll that’s nearly 50% higher than their current franchise-record, they’re widely expected to make several deals in order to scale back their spending. That’s not to say Tampa Bay is embarking on any sort of rebuild, as machinations of this nature are the norm for a Rays club that regularly churns the top end of its roster and cashes in veteran players for controllable young talent. Among the early trade candidates on the Rays’ roster this offseason, is outfielder Manuel Margot — as discussed here yesterday. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds that Tampa Bay has discussed the 29-year-old with multiple teams within the past two weeks.

Margot isn’t coming off a great year and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 before he reaches free agency next winter. As such, it’s only natural that he’s among the names the Rays are peddling as they look to retool the roster, scale back payroll and simultaneously remain competitive. The Rays have Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and several utility types who can handle both the infield and outfield. The possibility of trading Margot and bringing in a backup outfielder (via trade or free agency) at a lower salary point remains.

Margot’s .264/.310/.376 batting line in 336 plate appearances this past season is right in line with the .264/.317/.375 line he’s posted in four total seasons as a member of the Rays. It checked in a bit below average, albeit not egregiously so.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But Margot missed the bulk of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his usual strong (at times elite) defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023, which perhaps isn’t all that surprising for a player coming off a major knee injury. The question for potential trade partners is whether Margot can be expected to rebound to his previous defensive heights or whether this is the new norm moving forward.

Clubs will likely have varying opinions on that front, though Margot’s overall track record ought to carry some appeal. That’s especially true in a thin free-agent market for outfielders. Not every team will want to pursue a nine-figure deal with Cody Bellinger, and some teams might well be turned off by the possibility of overcommitting to Kevin Kiermaier on the heels of a strong season. Free agent Harrison Bader offers a similar skill set to Margot and had a better year defensively but lesser year at the plate. Michael A. Taylor has an excellent glove and more pop than Margot but much higher strikeout rates and lower on-base marks.

Given the thin market for proven outfield help, Margot ought to command interest on the trade market — even if the return isn’t enormous. Let’s run through a few potential fits, excluding his AL East rivals. These certainly aren’t the only possible destinations, but any of the following teams make sense as a candidate to target a short-term, versatile option in the outfield:

  • Marlins: Newly minted president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was the Rays’ general manager before being hired by Miami. The Marlins have been on the lookout for a center fielder for the past several years but have struggled to fill the void — so much so that the Fish moved shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field last year. Miami could line up on a trade bringing Margot aboard to handle center field, thus moving Chisholm back to the infield. The Marlins don’t have an obvious everyday shortstop at present, and the market for quality options at that position is even more barren than in the outfield.
  • Giants: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has spoken openly about his desire to add some more athleticism and range to his outfield. Even with Margot’s step back in 2023, he still had above-average range and sprint speed. He’d be an upgrade, defensively speaking, over much of the San Francisco outfield mix even if he never fully rediscovers his once-elite range. Margot would allow the Giants to give Luis Matos some extra time in Triple-A after rushing to the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2023. And if Matos eventually forces his way onto the scene, Margot could join Austin Slater and Mitch Haniger as right-handed complements to lefty outfielders like Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto.
  • D-backs: Arizona’s excellent young outfield was a major factor in their unexpected run to the 2023 World Series, but with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hitting the market, the Snakes are once again looking at an all-left-handed mix of Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher. Margot gives them a right-handed option to provide manager Torey Lovullo with some matchup options.
  • Phillies: The Phils currently look as though they’ll give former top prospect Cristian Pache, who’s out of minor league options, another look as a reserve outfielder. Last year’s .238/.319/.417 slash in 95 plate appearances was better than anything Pache has ever done in the big leagues (career .173/.230/.273). Maybe they’ve unlocked something in his offensive profile, but Margot would be more reliable at the plate while still providing a potential righty complement to Brandon Marsh and a late-game defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos.
  • Mariners: The Mariners and Rays have lined up on approximately six thousand trades since Jerry Dipoto was hired to oversee baseball operations for Seattle, and with a pair of young lefties (Jarred Kelenic, Cade Marlowe) currently slated to patrol the outfield corners in 2024, there’s another potential fit here. Margot would be a younger (and slightly more expensive) veteran to fill the same role the M’s tried for with AJ Pollock in 2023. Perhaps the M’s feel in-house options like Sam Haggerty and/or Dylan Moore can capably handle this role, but Haggerty has never topped 201 plate appearances in a big league seasons, while Moore battled injuries in 2023 and saw an already problematic strikeout rate spike to 34%.
  • Rockies: Brenton Doyle was an elite defender in his debut season but also one of the least-productive hitters in MLB. Nolan Jones, a converted infielder, is the Rockies’ most established outfielder at the moment. Margot could be acquired at a relatively low cost and plugged in as a semi-regular in an outfield that lacks much in the way of certainty. It’s plenty arguable that the Rox shouldn’t be trading anything to acquire short-term pieces like Margot, but they’ve staunchly resisted a rebuild for several years and will probably try to bolster the roster to some extent again this winter.
  • Angels: Mickey Moniak’s breakout season came with massive platoon splits, and Margot would serve as a natural right-handed pairing with the former No. 1 overall pick while providing an alternative in center, should Mike Trout again spend time on the injured list. The Angels have Jo Adell as a potential right-handed complement in the outfield, but Margot is a superior defender who might be better served for such a part-time role.
  • Rangers: Leody Taveras struggled in the second half of the 2023 season, and impressive as Evan Carter was in his late debut and throughout the postseason, he still has all of 147 plate appearances against Major League pitching at just 21 years of age. Margot would give Texas a true fourth outfielder — something they currently lack — in addition to insurance for Carter regression, continued struggles for Taveras or another injury for star right fielder Adolis Garcia.
  • Twins: It might be simpler for the Twins to simply re-sign Taylor, although peak Margot has a better glove and about half the strikeout rate of the Twins’ departing free-agent outfielder. Minnesota is trying to scale back payroll, making this an imperfect fit unless the Rays are interested in taking back some money to fill a need of their own (e.g. Christian Vazquez). Money aside, Margot would offer a natural complement to young lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach while also giving the Twins a capable reserve in center, should Byron Buxton miss time yet again.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan India Trade

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The Reds enjoyed a youth movement in 2023 as exciting youngsters like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz helped to push the club into unexpected contention for much of the season, though they ultimately fell short of playoffs with an 82-80 record. The aforementioned names alongside other youngsters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have created something of an infield logjam for the club when taken together, however. The club’s positional mix has gotten crowded enough that the Reds do not expect to have sufficient at-bats available to allow franchise icon Joey Votto to finish his career in Cincinnati, given the roster’s current construction.

The excess of infield options makes it a no-brainer for the Reds to at least consider dealing from that surplus, and the club seemingly did at least listen on offers for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who started the season strong with a .271/.355/.439 slash line through 73 games but battled plantar fasciitis throughout the second half, with a slash line of just .201/.312/.356 in 205 trips to the plate the rest of the way. With India unlikely to move off second base in favor of another position on the diamond and the Reds reportedly interested in acquiring additional infield talent it’s fairly reasonable to expect India to once again be available this offseason, particularly given the club’s dire need for a reliable starting pitcher to pair with Hunter Greene at the front of their rotation.

While it might seem prudent to hold onto India in hopes that a full, healthy campaign from the 26-year-old in 2024 could increase his trade value, the sparse free agent class in terms of middle infield options could make India a more valuable commodity on the open market than he might otherwise seem to be. The likes of Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario headline the current class of free agents up the middle, all of whom India outperformed in 2023 even while battling injuries. What’s more, he could even wind up being more financially affordable than those lesser options, as he’s set to make his first trip through arbitration this offseason with an affordable price tag of just $3.7MM projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Adding three years of cost-controlled production from India certainly appears to be an attractive option when compared to a pricier one-year flier on Anderson or a commitment to Merrifield’s age-35 campaign after three consecutive below-average seasons offensively.

So, which teams could be a fit for the Reds to partner up with on a deal? As previously mentioned, India seems to be more or less locked into his role as a regular second baseman, meaning teams with a clear plan at the keystone for 2024 make little sense as a potential fit. That likely eliminates the Astros, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, A’s, Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Angels and Braves as potential suitors, as each of those clubs have either a clearly established second baseman or a surplus of potential infield options of their own. Meanwhile, the Royals and Pirates are unlikely to give up long-term pitching assets to acquire a player who could wind up blocking options within their own systems. That still leaves nine clubs that could feasibly be interested in India’s services this offseason, however. A look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Dodgers: Among the clear best fits for India is the Dodgers, who were forced to move superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the infield dirt for much of the 2023 season. While he pulled off a multi-positional role with aplomb, a middle infield acquisition that could allow Betts to return to right field full time while alleviating pressure on an infield mix of Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Miguel Vargas would make a lot of sense for LA. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have plenty of interesting pitching prospects and young arms that could entice the Reds, such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, and Gavin Stone.
  • Mariners: Seattle is another clear fit for India’s services. The Reds and Mariners have gotten together on several deals in recent years, with Cincinnati sending the likes of Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker out west while recouping key prospects such as Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson who helped to accelerate the club’s rebuilding process. A cut-and-dry buy-sell trade doesn’t make sense here anymore with both sides hoping to contend in 2023, but the Mariners have interesting young arms like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock who the Reds would surely be interested in acquiring. Meanwhile, second base was a problem for the Mariners in 2023, and while the addition of Josh Rojas should help shore up the position it’s easy to see how India could make sense for the club as a potential centerpiece of a deal should they decide to part with one of their young arms.
  • White Sox: Though not the obvious contenders that the other teams in this tier are, the White Sox are perhaps most desperate for middle infield help of any club with utility players Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez projected as their starting double-play duo in 2024 as things stand. They also boast one of the most enticing pitching trade chips on the market this offseason in right-hander Dylan Cease, who is controllable for the next two seasons and boasts a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the last three seasons with a 30% strikeout rate. While a one-for-one swap of the two players seems implausible given Cease’s front-of-the-rotation potential, India could be an intriguing piece for the sides to build a larger return package around given Chicago’s needs up the middle.

Next Tier Down:

  • Blue Jays: Toronto recently lost both Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield to free agency, creating major holes around the club’s infield. With the club firmly in the midst of their window for contention, a deal for three years of India would help solidify second base for the next three seasons while also allowing the club to focus their financial efforts on either re-signing Chapman or pursuing a left-handed outfield bat like Cody Bellinger. That being said, the Jays have some interesting young infielders such as Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement who they may be interested in giving runway to in 2024, and are in need of pitching depth of their own this offseason. While it’s certainly conceivable that the Reds could have interest in Alek Manoah as a potential change-of-scenery candidate, it’s hard to pinpoint what sort of value Manoah would have in trade this offseason on the heels of an incredible 2022 campaign and a disastrous 2023.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are in a precarious spot this offseason, with the club likely to entertain trade offers both on shortstop Willy Adames in addition to righties Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser. Burnes, of course, would be an incredible addition to the rotation-needy Reds, while the possible departure of Adames would create a clear near for the club up the middle that could be filled by shifting Brice Turang to shortstop and acquiring India to play second base. While the fit between the two clubs is certainly a sensible one on paper, it seems unlikely that the division rivals would get together on a trade of this sort of magnitude barring the Brewers settling on a full-blown rebuild, at which point acquiring a player already into his arbitration years like India makes little sense.
  • Tigers: While Detroit may appear to be something of an unusual fit for India’s services, the club mustered a second place finish in the AL Central last season, suggesting they could be building toward more success in the coming years. While the Tigers are unlikely to be favorites for the AL Central crown in 2024, India’s three seasons of team control make him a solid fit for the club as a clear upgrade over Zack McKinstry at second base. What’s more, the Tigers have a bevy of interesting young arms from which to deal, from the type of controllable, quality arms that would require a larger package like Tarik Skubal to potentially cheaper options like Matt Manning and perhaps even Alex Faedo.

Longer Shots:

  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have a clear need at second base for the 2024 season, and India could certainly make sense to help plug that hole. Unfortunately for Boston, however, the Reds are unlikely to be interested in dealing for a player from the club’s outfield surplus like Alex Verdugo, and the Red Sox are in need of pitching help themselves this offseason. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal coming together centered around mid-rotation veteran Nick Pivetta or a younger arm like Josh Winckoski, but a hypothetical deal is further complicated by the impending arrival of Marcelo Mayer, who alongside Trevor Story would likely kick India over to DH early in his tenure with Boston, likely hampering his value to the Red Sox.
  • Giants: The Giants have Thairo Estrada as a clearly capable regular at second base already, immediately complicating the fit between the two sides. That being said, San Francisco is in clear need of offense, and adding a young, reliable second baseman like India to the club’s infield mix could allow Estrada to take on a multi-positional role. After all, he has experience at shortstop, third base, and both outfield corners in addition to the keystone. It’s hard to imagine the Giants giving up enough near-term pitching to entice the Reds to make a deal, however, given their own need for arms this offseason.
  • Nationals: The Nationals are in the midst of a protracted rebuild, immediately making them something of a dubious fit for a win-now player in his prime such as India. That being said, with three seasons of team control India would likely still be under control when Washington is ready to contend in the coming years. The club has utilized Luis Garcia at second base in recent years, though India would be an upgrade over Garcia, who has experience at shortstop and could potentially be moved elsewhere on the infield, at the keystone offensively. Washington also has a handful of young arms who could be of interest to the Reds, such as Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray, though it’s unclear if the Nationals would have an appetite for dealing a way a controllable arm at this stage in their rebuild.

Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade

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Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.

After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.

That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.

The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.

Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
  • Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
  • Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
  • Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
  • Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.

Next Tier Down:

  • Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
  • Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
  • Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.

Longer Shots:

  • Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
  • Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
  • Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
  • Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

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Cody Bellinger is probably the top rental hitter who’ll be traded in the next two weeks. The Cubs have gotten excellent production for their $17.5MM rebound flier on the former MVP.

Bellinger went into Wednesday night’s action carrying a .308/.365/.523 batting line over 266 plate appearances. That’s well shy of his career-best 2019 season but right in line with his next-best work as a Dodger. By measure of wRC+, it’s the third-strongest rate production of his career and not far off his .267/.351/.581 rookie showing that ranks as his second-best season.

A left knee contusion cost him around a month between May and June. Since being reinstated from the injured list, Bellinger is raking at a .366/.408/.570 clip. The Cubs eased him back in defensively at first base but have kicked him out to his customary center field spot this month.

Bellinger isn’t hitting for the kind of power he once did, but he has seemingly made a concerted effort to get more balls in play. After striking out around 27% of the time between 2021-22, he’s going down on strikes at just a 17.7% clip this season. Last winter’s Brandon Nimmo contract illustrated how much value the league places on the handful of above-average defensive center fielders who can hit. For the first time in three seasons, Bellinger again seems to fall into that category.

The Cubs should and very likely will trade him. They’re six games under .500. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option for next season, so he’s an impending free agent. The demand for his services this summer figures to outweigh the value of the draft pick they’d receive if he declines a qualifying offer and walks in free agency.

If Bellinger indeed changes uniforms in the next couple weeks, let’s identify some fits (teams listed alphabetically within tiers):

Top Suitors

Astros

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has already linked the Astros to Bellinger. Houston general manager Dana Brown is on record about his desire to add a left-handed bat to a very righty-centric lineup. Even with Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field and Chas McCormick playing very well in center, there’s enough uncertainty for Bellinger to be a fit.

Righty-swinging Corey Julks has gotten the bulk of the playing time in left field. He’s on a hot streak and has a decent .279/.326/.402 showing on the year, but he’s not the kind of impact bat who’d firmly rule Houston out on upgrades. It’s tough to know what to expect from Michael Brantley given his repeated shoulder setbacks. Acquiring Bellinger while pushing McCormick to left field and Julks to the bench would balance the lineup from a handedness perspective and add some overall depth to an offense that has been closer to average than expected.

Giants

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Bellinger from their time in L.A. The Giants made a run at him in free agency last winter. They didn’t get him then, but the need is just as acute now. San Francisco has used rookie Luis Matos as its top center fielder over the past month. The 21-year-old is a very promising prospect but has started his MLB career with a middling .258/.327/.326 performance.

Bellinger would be a significant offensive upgrade and a defensive boost for an outfield that ranks 22nd in MLB at -8 Outs Above Average. Mike Yastrzemski could move to the corner opposite Michael Conforto, while Austin Slater stays on hand as a right-handed complement to the all lefty-hitting outfield. If Mitch Haniger returns before season’s end, he’d be a corner/designated hitter option.

Yankees

The Yankees are desperate for offensive help. Harrison Bader is one of the few productive regulars in their Aaron Judge-less lineup, but the corner outfield has been manned by depth types like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun (both now on the injured list), Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even after Judge comes back, one of the corner outfield spots is open.

Acquiring Bellinger would push the Yankees past the $293MM fourth competitive balance tax line unless the Cubs paid down the entire deal (thereby increasing the prospect return). New York has been reluctant to exceed that rather symbolic marker — there are no additional non-monetary penalties for doing so — but ownership and the front office could feel increased pressure to add to a floundering roster that is now outside the playoff picture. It’s easy to see the appeal of adding Bellinger’s left-handed bat to the Yankee Stadium short porch and a lineup that skews heavily to the right side.

Next Tier Down

Phillies

Any interest on Philadelphia’s part would probably be contingent on Bryce Harper holding up at first base. If the Phils are convinced he’s an everyday option there, they could kick Kyle Schwarber to designated hitter and leave open a corner outfield spot for Bellinger. (The Phils could also pursue Bellinger as a first base option if Harper can’t play the field, though that’d leave Schwarber in a corner outfield spot.) It might not be the top priority — rotation depth and perhaps third base are bigger concerns — but it’d be viable if Harper can defend. Phils’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to push in for big names.

Rangers

Texas has gotten strong production out of Leody Taveras in center field. They’ve patched things together in left field and at designated hitter, though, relying mostly on Ezequiel Durán to carry the offensive load wherever he’s played. Travis Jankowski has been a solid fill-in as part of that rotation, but Bellinger carries far more offensive upside than the journeyman Jankowski does.

Red Sox

Center field looked like a problem for Boston not too long ago. Adam Duvall has struggled since returning from a fractured wrist. Enrique Hernández is not having a good season. The Sox have gotten their awaited Jarren Duran breakout, though. The 26-year-old former top prospect is hitting a career-best .313/.364/.508 over 269 trips to the plate. He’s not a good defensive center fielder, but with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida locked into the corner outfield, there’s nowhere else for Duran to play. Adding another lefty-hitting outfielder to the mix is probably too much of a luxury buy for a club that could use pitching and middle infield help.

Longer Shots

Angels

Mickey Moniak has played well since assuming the center field role after Mike Trout’s hamate fracture. A short-term outfield of Taylor Ward, Moniak and Hunter Renfroe could theoretically be upgraded upon, but the Halos are a fringe contender at this point and Trout is expected back in August or September.

Brewers

Milwaukee hasn’t gotten a ton out of center field. Joey Wiemer has 12 homers and is playing good defense but has a .291 on-base percentage. Milwaukee could consider upgrades there or at first base, where Bellinger would be an upgrade on the currently injured Rowdy Tellez. They might have to pay a heavier prospect return to keep Bellinger within the division, though.

Guardians

The Guardians could certainly use an offensive jolt in the outfield. Myles Straw is one of the worst hitters among everyday players. He’s typically at least playable because of elite glovework and baserunning, but his public defensive metrics this season are average. This could work, although Cleveland is arguably too fringy of a contender to pursue a rental whom they’ll have little chance of re-signing. They’re only a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central but they’re two games under .500.

Marlins

Miami is relying upon 27-year-old rookie Dane Myers as a stopgap center fielder. Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be back soon to reclaim center. The corner outfield tandem of Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz is fine but not overwhelming. The Fish could use a little more offense, but outside help seems likelier to come on the infield or behind the dish. Bellinger’s contract could also be problematic for a low-payroll Miami club that probably isn’t keen on paying a $5MM option buyout at the start of next offseason.

Twins

This one is contingent on Byron Buxton’s health. If Minnesota doesn’t feel Buxton will be able to play anything other than designated hitter all season, there’s a case for making a run at Bellinger and pushing Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfield role. If they’re still holding out hope for Buxton’s late-season return to the outfield, this probably doesn’t work.

Dodgers

This would be very funny but it’s not happening.

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San Francisco strikes me as the best fit for Bellinger altogether, assuming they’re still right in the Wild Card mix on August 1. The Giants have a lot of good position players but are short on star talent. One can argue whether the current version of Bellinger is an All-Star caliber player or a bit below that. Still, the chance to improve the outfield defense while taking some pressure off Matos to immediately hit against big league pitching should be a goal for Zaidi and his front office.

Best Fits For A Whit Merrifield Trade

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For the past few seasons, there’s been loose deadline speculation around the possibility of the Royals dealing Whit Merrifield. To this point, Kansas City has resisted that possibility. A career-long member of an organization that is generally among the game’s most loyal, Merrifield was a late-bloomer who signed an affordable early-career extension. That allowed the Royals to keep him at little cost through his prime seasons, which included consecutive MLB-leading hit totals in 2018-19 and a pair of All-Star appearances.

As recently as last season, Merrifield participated in the Midsummer Classic. He went on to appear in all 162 games, led baseball with 42 doubles and swiped an AL-best 40 bases. The Royals hoped he’d be a top-of-the-order sparkplug for a more competitive team in 2022, but that hasn’t panned out. Not only has the team found itself 20 games below .500 at the All-Star Break, Merrrifield is having a career-worst season. He owns a .240/.292/.343 line through 373 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+.

Merrifield is signed through the end of next season. The Royals restructured his deal during Spring Training, so he’s making $7MM this year (about $2.73MM of which will be paid out after the August 2 deadline) and $6.75MM next season. The deal also contains a $500K buyout on a 2024 mutual option. With the affordable control and Merrifield’s trade value at a low ebb, the Royals don’t have to force a trade over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last month the club was more amenable to dealing him than they’ve been in years past.

Even during a down year, Merrifield should draw attention from other clubs. He remains a high-contact bat and an excellent baserunner, having stolen 14 more bags while being caught just twice. He’s typically a solid defender at both second base and in the corner outfield, although public metrics are down a bit on his first-half performance in that regard. Merrifield has also looked more like himself of late, hitting .269/.322/.392 with 15 doubles and 11 steals in 65 games since the start of May. His April was abysmal, but he’s been productive for the past two and a half months and has a quality career body of work.

If the Royals were to seriously market Merrifield over the next two weeks, which teams stand out as the best fits? With a season and a half of remaining control, it’ll have to be a team that realistically feels it can compete by 2023. The Pirates, Reds, A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Nationals can probably be ruled out on that alone. The Rockies and Rangers have their sights set on competing next year, but neither is likely to preemptively acquire a second baseman this summer. The Tigers are perhaps a bit more plausible given the tough season they’ve gotten from Jonathan Schoop, but they’re going to be more focused on dealing some players than acquiring a notable veteran from a division rival with an eye towards 2023.

Of the remaining two-thirds of the league’s teams, which seem likeliest to be in touch with Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Piccolo?

Best Fits

Mariners — Seattle has won 14 in a row to go into the All-Star Break owners of a 51-42 record. It’s still an uphill battle to catch the Astros in the AL West, but they’re firmly in the Wild Card mix and likely to look for ways to upgrade over the next two weeks. No position stands out more than second base, where Seattle has gotten a collective .212/.279/.299 line. Offseason acquisition Adam Frazier has underwhelmed, as has last year’s deadline pickup Abraham Toro. The M’s could move Ty France to second base, but he’s better suited for first base/designated hitter duty. Frazier’s headed towards free agency after this season anyhow, and Merrifield could be an affordable upgrade for both the remainder of this season and next.

White Sox — The White Sox have had a generally underwhelming season, but they’re coming out of the Break just three games back in the AL Central. The second base tandem of Leury García and Josh Harrison hasn’t panned out, although Harrison has been alright over the past month. Merrifield would still be a definitive upgrade there, and his relatively modest salary should be particularly appealing to a team already sporting a franchise-record payroll. Would the Royals be willing to deal Merrifield inside the division? They’d surely like to compete next season, so perhaps that’ll give them some hesitance, but he’d only be under contract for one season of plausible contention.

Dodgers — Heyman reported last week that the Dodgers have already been in touch with the Royals. Second base isn’t really a need for L.A., with former top prospect Gavin Lux enjoying his awaited breakout season. Lux has seen some time in left field of late while the Dodgers have been without Chris Taylor, though, and their offseason pickup of Hanser Alberto as a righty-hitting utilityman hasn’t worked. Landing Merrifield may lead to a bit of a position player surplus once Taylor returns from the injured list, but the Dodgers haven’t been deterred by having “too much talent” in recent years.

Giants — The Giants are in a similar boat as their archrivals. They have a handful of second base-caliber players, and righties Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada are playing well. Tommy La Stella is off to a rough start after opening the year on the injured list, and the Giants have already been tied to Brandon Drury.  That suggests they’re open to adding another righty-swinging versatile infielder. Merrifield doesn’t have Drury’s power, but his high-contact game may be a better fit for Oracle Park.

Brewers — The Brewers are expected to look for another bat this summer as they battle the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Kolten Wong has been a slightly below-average hitter this year, and his public defensive metrics have tumbled. That’s not too dissimilar from Merrifield, and perhaps Milwaukee will feel he’s not much (if any) of an upgrade over Wong. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote that the Brew Crew could listen to offers on Wong even as they look for other ways to add to the offense.

Longer Shots

Orioles — The Orioles are within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot despite their second basemen hitting only .196/.269/.363. Rougned Odor is just a stopgap, and the O’s are likely to look for a better second baseman this offseason. Actually reaching the playoffs this year is unlikely, but Merrifield is affordable and would be a good fit for a 2023 team that could more earnestly compete. With the 2022 club at least hanging around, there’s an argument for GM Mike Elias and his staff to strike a little early for a controllable player.

Angels — It’s a similar argument for the Angels, although their involvement in the bidding would be strictly about 2023. The Halos have gotten nothing from second base this year, one of the reasons they’re set to miss the playoffs again. Next season will be a turning point, with Shohei Ohtani slated to reach free agency after the year. They’re going to have to aggressively address the roster’s flaws over the next eight months. Nothing stops them from adding controllable players this summer while still dealing rentals like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.

Rays — The Rays haven’t gotten much out of second base this year, but that’s largely because Brandon Lowe missed more than a month. With Lowe back, the keystone is no longer a concern, although Tampa Bay’s myriad outfield injuries could cause them to look at a versatile infield/outfield type.

Braves — Atlanta hasn’t gotten much from Orlando Arcia since Ozzie Albies broke his foot. They acquired Robinson Canó as a stopgap and anticipate Albies returning late next month. That probably reduces the urgency to add a second baseman, although they’re in a tight battle with the Mets and could work Merrifield into the corner outfield once Albies returns.

Phillies — Continuing the theme of “contenders whose second basemen got hurt,” the Phils have been without Jean Segura since May. He’s expected back this year, though, and the presence of top prospect Bryson Stott gives Philadelphia some cover until then. Bullpen or center field help seems likelier.

No Pressing Second Base Need

Each of the Yankees, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox have everyday second basemen locked into the lineup. Merrifield’s ability to play the corner outfield could make him an option for some of this group — the Yankees and Padres, in particular, could look into outfield additions — but they seem less likely to be motivated than teams searching for a second baseman. Much of Merrifield’s appeal lies in his defensive flexibility, and pigeon-holing him into the corner outfield reduces a good bit of his value. Contenders looking for an impactful corner bat to upgrade the middle of the order seem likely to find cleaner fits elsewhere.

Merrifield’s vaccination status also impacts some teams’ pursuits, most notably the Blue Jays. He was not permitted to travel to Canada for the Royals series in Toronto last week, and similar concerns reportedly diminished the Yankees’ interest in teammate Andrew Benintendi. Merrifield told reporters he’d be open to reconsidering his stance on getting vaccinated if dealt to a playoff contender that could have to travel across the border for meaningful games. He stopped short of firmly declaring he’d do so, however, and questions about his availability for those games could be of concern for some teams.

There’s no guarantee the Royals will actually follow through on a Merrifield trade. This is far from the first time his name has made the rounds on the rumor circuit, and Kansas City has yet to pull the trigger on a deal (or seemingly come close). If the front office takes a different approach this summer, teams like the Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers feel like the most plausible suitors.

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