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Kevin Kiermaier

NLCS Roster Notes: Rojas, McNeil, Vesia

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The Dodgers and Mets have announced their 26-man rosters for the NLCS this afternoon. Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas was a notable omission from the L.A. roster, while Mets infielder Jeff McNeil is notably joining the club’s roster after a wrist fracture sidelined him throughout the final month of the regular season and the early part of the playoffs. Rojas was replaced on the club’s roster by outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, while right-hander Adam Ottavino was dropped from the Mets’ roster to accommodate McNeil. Left-hander Alex Vesia was also left off the Dodgers’ latest roster, with right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. added to the roster as Vesia’s replacement. Rojas, Ottavino, and Vesia will be eligible for the club’s World Series roster because they were not removed from the roster mid-series.

Rojas departs the club’s postseason roster after suffering a partially torn adductor muscle late in the regular season. The 35-year-old veteran was able to rest up during the Wild Card Series, which the Dodgers did not participate in after capturing a bye through the first round, and participate in the NLDS against the Padres. He re-aggravated the injury while playing in the series, however, and appeared in just three of the five games while going 2-for-8 at the plate. While Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes that Rojas believes that he’s currently healthy enough to play, the Dodgers were evidently concerned that if Rojas aggravated the injury further he would be unavailable for the World Series in the event that the club advances. By leaving him off the NLCS roster entirely, the Dodgers hope to give Rojas the opportunity to rest up for the World Series.

With the Dodgers’ primary shortstop no longer available, Tommy Edman now figures to slide from center field to shortstop on a regular basis. That opens up center field for utility bat Enrique Hernandez, who impressed during the NLDS with a three-for-nine performance that included a home run. The strong showing added to Hernandez’s lengthy postseason resume, as he’s a career .277/.351/.548 hitter in 211 trips to the plate across 75 playoff games, 64 of which have come in a Dodgers uniform. Kevin Kiermaier and Andy Pages are both on the roster as potential backup options in center field should an injury occur, while Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and Hernandez himself all have experience at shortstop should a replacement for Edman be necessary at any point during the series.

While the Dodgers are losing a key member of their middle infield ahead of the series, the Mets are returning one of their own from the injured list in McNeil. The 32-year-old struggled through a second consecutive down season at the plate this year, posting just a .238/.308/.384 slash line (97 wRC+) in 128 games before going on the shelf due to a fractured wrist in early September. Five weeks after hitting the injured list, McNeil now returns to the roster to provide the Mets with a versatile lefty bat capable of slotting into second base, third base, and the outfield corners as needed. Journeyman Jose Iglesias has handled the keystone in McNeil’s absence but could take a seat on the bench for the NLCS after hitting just .207/.233/.207 in 30 trips to the plate across seven games this postseason. Rookie Luisangel Acuna is also on the postseason roster as a middle infield option but has primarily found usage as a defensive replacement to this point in the club’s playoff run.

The addition of McNeil’s lefty bat to the lineup could be particularly valuable for the Mets given the Dodgers’ loss of Vesia. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Vesia was unlikely to make the NLCS roster due to an intercostal injury, and that eventuality has now come to pass. While Roberts floated the possibility of right-hander Tony Gonsolin (who missed the entire 2024 regular season while rehabbing Tommy John surgery) replacing Vesia on the club’s NLCS roster, it seems that L.A. ultimately decided to turn to Honeywell rather than lean on Gonsolin to get postseason outs in his first big league appearance in over a year. The 29-year-old Honeywell has posted a solid 2.63 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work for the Pirates and Dodgers this year despite a lackluster 4.28 FIP and figures to provide L.A. with a much-needed multi-inning option as the club weighs the possibility of multiple bullpen games during the course of the seven-game series.

Division Series Roster Notes: Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers

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We’ve already covered some notable roster additions for the Guardians and Mets as the Division Series begins, and the Royals are sticking with the same 26 players used in the Wild Card Series against the Orioles.  Now that all eight teams in the LDS rounds have revealed their rosters, here are the details…

  • The Padres made two changes from their NLDS roster, adding left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Alek Jacob and removing Joe Musgrove and infielder Nick Ahmed.  Musgrove was obviously out due to his impending Tommy John surgery, while replacing Ahmed with a pitcher gives San Diego 13 pitchers to go with 13 position players.  Perez is one of five southpaws on San Diego’s roster, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (X link) was among those who noted that the Padres are guarding themselves as best they can against Shohei Ohtani and other powerful left-handed Dodgers bats.
  • The Dodgers will go with an even mix of 13 batters and 13 pitchers, and rookie Edgardo Henriquez has made the list of available arms.  Henriquez only made his MLB debut on September 24 and he has played in just three games as a big leaguer, but Los Angeles will give the hard-throwing righty a look in October to add some velocity to the bullpen.  It’s probably safe to assume that Henriquez wouldn’t have made the cut if the Dodgers weren’t ravaged by pitching injuries, yet the rookie also got the nod over veteran Joe Kelly, who had an inconsistent year but was pitching well after returning from the IL in mid-September.  On the position player side, L.A. didn’t include either Kevin Kiermaier or James Outman, so Andy Pages will be the only true backup outfielder along with utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor in the bench mix.
  • The Phillies will use 14 position players and 12 pitchers in their NLDS matchup with the Mets, with left-hander Kolby Allard joining the relief corps.  Allard has worked as something of a swingman throughout his career, and this ability of covering multiple innings earned Allard the spot, as manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com’s Paul Casella and other reporters.  “He’s going to probably give us the most length if we get into an extra-inning game….so I just wanted as much length as we could get,” Thomson said.  Utilityman Weston Wilson also got the Phils’ last bench spot, as Casella observes that Wilson brings more positional versatility than outfielder Cal Stevenson.
  • The Yankees went heavier on position players (15) than pitchers (11) for their ALDS roster against the Royals.  Anthony Rizzo is missing the series due to two broken fingers and DJ LeMahieu wasn’t yet activated from the injured list, but New York still has plenty of room on its bench, including pinch-running specialist Duke Ellis.  The Yankees appear to be loading up on bats to take on the Royals’ tough rotation and more porous bullpen, which left right-hander Marcus Stroman off the ALDS roster as the odd man out of the starting staff.
  • The Tigers made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, as rookie righty Keider Montero has been included in place of Casey Mize.  Montero posted a 4.76 ERA over 98 1/3 innings in his first Major League season, starting 16 of 19 games.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Montero will start against the Guardians in the ALDS, however, as Detroit’s pitching staff (apart from ace Tarik Skubal) is very malleable in terms of specific roles.

Dodgers Acquire Kevin Kiermaier

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The Dodgers acquired Kevin Kiermaier and cash considerations from the Blue Jays for lefty reliever Ryan Yarbrough. Toronto is reportedly paying down $1.66MM of Kiermaier’s remaining salary.

Kiermaier, 34, is in the midst of a thoroughly disappointing season, batting .195 with a .546 OPS. While his defense in the outfield has been stellar as always (10 OAA, 9 DRS), it has not been enough to make up for his career-worst offensive numbers. He has been worth just 0.2 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs. The four-time Gold Glove winner went unclaimed on waivers earlier this month, with no team willing to claim him and take the remaining portion of his $10.5MM salary off of the Blue Jays’ books. Now, however, just over two weeks later, the Jays found a club willing to take Kiermaier off their hands, and they got a left-handed long-man for the bullpen in return.

The Dodgers have not gotten much production from the center field position this year, ranking 27th in OPS and wRC+ and dead last in FanGraphs WAR. James Outman has struggled to replicate his success from his excellent rookie season in 2023, while top prospect Andy Pages has underwhelmed at the plate (.675 OPS, 92 wRC+) and in the field (-8 DRS, -1 OAA). Kiermaier won’t help the offense, but he will be a terrific defensive replacement off the bench. What’s more, if there is any team that can put up with his bat in the starting lineup on occasion, it’s the Dodgers, who lead the NL in OPS and wRC+ despite mediocre production from center field all season.

Kiermaier has already announced his intention to retire following the 2024 campaign. Joining the powerhouse Dodgers will give him one more chance to compete for a World Series championship, an accomplishment that has eluded him throughout his 12-year career with the Rays and Blue Jays. Kiermaier went 7-for-19 with a 1.137 OPS in the 2020 World Series, but despite his efforts, the Rays fell to the Dodgers in six games.

As for the Blue Jays, they have elite defender Daulton Varsho to slide into center field, and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that lefty batting outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido, acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi deal, will take Kiermaier’s spot on the active roster. Presumably, Loperfido will take over from Varsho in left field, at least in games with a right-handed starting pitcher. Meanwhile, Yarbrough should slot in as a reinforcement for a Blue Jays bullpen that has lost several contributors in recent days, including Yimi García, Trevor Richards, and Nate Pearson. Toronto may be out of contention this year, but the team still needs live arms to get through the season.

Yarbrough, 32, was designated for assignment by the Dodgers on Monday. While his 3.74 ERA this season is respectable, he has the lowest strikeout rate (13.9%) and the highest walk rate (8.9%) of his career. His 4.98 SIERA would also be a career-worst. That said, his ability to pitch multiple innings and his recent work as a starter (he started nine games in 2023, nine in 2022, and 21 in 2021) will make him an asset for a last-place Blue Jays team that is simply looking to get through the rest of the season without further embarrassment. Like Kiermaier, Yarbrough will be a free agent at the end of the year.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Dodgers and Jays were swapping Kiermaier and Yarbrough. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the cash considerations.

Kevin Kiermaier To Retire After 2024

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Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier is planning to retire after the current season, he tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “This is it, 2024 is it for me,” Kiermaier said today. “This next week will be very interesting (in terms of a potential trade). But this will be my last year playing. I’m going to give it my all the rest of the year regardless of what situation I’m in. But my body is talking to me now more than ever.”

Kevin KiermaierKiermaier, now 34, began his career in fairly humble fashion. The Rays selected him in the 31st round in 2010, a portion of the draft that no longer exists, and gave him a $75K signing bonus. He was up in the majors by 2013 and quickly drew attention with his hard-nosed style of play, running the bases aggressively while also crashing his body into walls and the ground in order to make highlight reel catches.

The reckless abandon that he had for his own health was simultaneously his greatest asset and also the thing that most frequently held him back. He has been known as one of the best defenders of the most recent era of baseball while also often missing time due to injuries.

By the end of the 2016 season, he had appeared in 365 games for the Rays. He hit 32 home runs in that time and slashed .258/.313/.425 for a wRC+ of 105. He also stole 44 bases in that stretch and received some of the strongest defensive grades in the league.

Having established himself as a solid piece of the Rays’ roster, the two sides agreed to an extension going into 2017. Kiermaier had qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and still had four years of club control remaining at that time. The deal was a six-year pact with a $53.5MM guarantee and a $13MM club option for 2023 that included a $2.5MM buyout.

Over the life of that deal, Kiermaier continued contributing in roughly the same way that he had before. He was solid though not elite at the plate while stealing bases and providing superlative defense, though the injury concerns would mount over time. From 2017 to 2022, the six guaranteed years of his extension with the Rays, he never once reached 130 games played in a season and he only hit the 100-game mark twice. One of those years was the shortened 2020 campaign but Kiermaier spent time on the injured list due to a right hip fracture, a torn ligament in right thumb, a left thumb sprain and a left wrist sprain.

In 2022, he dealt with a torn labrum in his left hip that ultimately required season-ending surgery in July. That led the Rays to go for the $2.5MM buyout instead of picking up his $13MM club option, sending him to free agency for the first time in his career.

He was able to land a one-year, $9MM deal with the Blue Jays and then engineered a solid bounceback campaign. He slashed .265/.322/.419 for a wRC+ of 104, stole 14 bases and continued to provide his customary excellent glovework. He did go on the injured list once, suffering a right elbow laceration crashing into the outfield wall attempting to make a catch, but got into 129 games for the Jays.

He re-signed with the Jays on another one-year deal, this time securing a $10.5MM guarantee, but his results have fallen off significantly here in 2024. He did go on the IL once due to left hip flexor inflammation, returning after a minimum stay. In his 77 games for the Jays this year, he’s hit just .195/.239/.314 for a wRC+ of 55.

“The way I reflect on it, the product I put on the field now still can be good, but the effort it takes to get it to what I’ve been used to all those years, with my speed and defense and arm and everything, it’s tough,” he said to Topkin today. “I knew this year was going to be tough just with how I felt last year, and I know as the years go by it’s going to get tougher and tougher. I have my third kid coming in December, and it’s time for me to be a dad and let my body recover.” He continued: “I’m very proud and very happy,” Kiermaier said, “and it’s just been the best journey I could ever ask for. … It’s been incredible.”

Though retirement is just over the horizon, Kiermaier still has the 2024 season to get through and it remains to be seen where he will finish his career. The Jays are 45-55 at the moment and ten games back of a playoff spot, making them clear sellers prior to the July 30 trade deadline. Even before announcing his upcoming retirement, Kiermaier was a logical trade candidate as an impending free agent.

However, his value is at a low ebb, given his salary and struggles at the plate this year. A couple of weeks ago, the Jays placed him on waivers in the hopes that some other club would take the contract off their hands but they all passed. Despite clearing waivers, Kiermaier wasn’t removed from Toronto’s roster and could still be traded in the next week, though the Jays would have to eat some of his remaining salary to facilitate a deal. Despite the tepid offense this year, Kiermaier’s defensive grades are still strong and the Reds are one club that reportedly has some interest in him.

He will have a few more months to add to his career totals but has thus far played in 1,120 major league games with 890 hits. That includes 94 home runs, 59 triples and 167 doubles. He has scored 491 runs, driven in 370 and stolen 131 bases.

But he will of course be most remembered for that superb defense. From 2014 to the present, he has accrued 159 Defensive Runs Saved as a center fielder so far. That’s the most of any player in baseball at any position and doesn’t even include the 13 DRS he had in right field prior to establishing himself as Tampa’s regular in center. His 88 Outs Above Average in center that time frame are tops among outfielders and behind only infielders Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed and Nolan Arenado. (His time as a right fielder predated the invention of Outs Above Average.)

We at MLBTR salute Kiermaier on a fine career and wish him luck in the remainder of his playing career as well as his post-playing days.

Reds Notes: Suter, Friedl, Kiermaier

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The Reds announced earlier today that they’ve placed left-hander Brent Suter on the 15-day IL due to a partial tear of his left teres major muscle. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the club had at least some concern that the injury would prove serious enough that Suter would be out for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. Fortunately, Suter himself told reporters (including those at Bally Sports Cincinnati) that his current timeline is not quite that bleak. The lefty’s expected shutdown time is between four and six weeks, though he’ll of course have to build back up to game-ready form after that.

While that timeline leaves the door open for Suter to return sometime in September, the news is nonetheless a major blow to the Reds’ relief corps. The bullpen has been a major strength for Cincinnati this year, as the club’s 3.44 collective bullpen ERA is the sixth-best figure in the majors while their 3.65 FIP ranks seventh. Suter has been a huge part of that success as the 34-year-old has posted a solid 3.68 ERA in a whopping 51 1/3 innings of work this year. That means Suter has accounted for just under 15% of the total innings thrown by the Reds bullpen this year, an innings total that leads the team.

With both Suter and right-hander Carson Spiers having recently hit the IL in Cincinnati, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club pursue bullpen reinforcements in the coming weeks. Reds brass indicated earlier this month they had not yet committed to a strategy for the trade deadline this year, though it’s worth noting that the club did swing a trade for outfielder Austin Slater just days after those comments, suggesting an openness to adding to the big league roster on at least some level. A look at MLBTR’s Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline reveals a number of interesting relief arms available, ranging from star A’s rookie Mason Miller to White Sox reclamation project Michael Kopech.

The Slater deal isn’t the only indication that the Reds could be looking to add this summer. According to Wittenmyer, the club “touched base” regarding Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier when the club put him on waivers earlier this month, though of course no deal has come together to this point. Kiermaier would offer the Reds a quality defensive center fielder who could act as a lefty platoon option for right-handed bats Slater and Stuart Fairchild, although it’s worth noting that Kiermaier has struggled badly (53 wRC+) at the plate this year. A stronger offensive fit Wittenmyer suggests for the Reds would be Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas, though he cautions that such a fit would depend on the price of acquiring 28-year-old.

While the Reds’ dearth of quality options in the outfield makes it an easily identifiable place where the club could improve its stock this summer, they may be on the verge of adding impact to the outfield mix internally. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, center fielder TJ Friedl is slated to head out for a minor league rehab assignment tomorrow with the hope of returning to the lineup in Cincinnati for this weekend’s series against the Rays. Friedl has been limited to just 26 games by injuries this year but is only one season removed from a 4-win campaign in 2023 where he posted a strong 116 wRC+ while slugging 18 home runs, stealing 27 bases, and playing strong defense in center across 138 games. That 20/30 potential in center field is tantalizing, and it’s easy to see how Friedl could help to transform the club’s outfield mix if he’s finally healthy after dealing with a fractured wrist and a hamstring strain this year.

Kevin Kiermaier Clears Waivers

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Kevin Kiermaier went unclaimed on waivers, the center fielder tells Hazel Mae and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (X link). GM Ross Atkins informed Kiermaier of the news today.

The Jays placed the defensive stalwart on waivers earlier in the week. The development was reported yesterday, but it’s likely Toronto made the move on Wednesday. (The waiver resolution process takes 48 hours.) The Jays were hoping that another team would place a claim and assume the approximate $4.5MM remaining on his $10.5MM salary. All 29 other teams passed on that opportunity.

As a result, the waiver saga will likely amount to nothing. The Jays could technically try to assign Kiermaier to the minor leagues now that he went unclaimed, but there’s no real reason to do so. Kiermaier has way more than the five years of service time necessary to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his entire salary. If the Jays tried to send him to Triple-A, the four-time Gold Glove winner would surely elect free agency instead. Toronto would still owe him his salary, so all that’d achieve is opening a roster spot.

Instead, the Blue Jays are likely to simply keep Kiermaier in the majors. A team does not need to send a player down after passing that player through waivers. (As an example, the Angels retained Tyler Anderson and Randal Grichuk last season after unsuccessfully trying to offload their salaries.) Kiermaier is likely to continue serving as Toronto’s primary center fielder.

The 34-year-old will try to right the ship amidst the worst offensive season of his career. Kiermaier is hitting .191/.238/.295 with a huge 32.2% strikeout rate through 189 plate appearances. Among hitters with 150+ trips, he has the sixth-lowest OBP and is 19th from the bottom in slugging. Even with his customarily excellent glovework, Kiermaier’s overall production is hovering around replacement level.

Between the lack of offense and the fairly significant salary, no team was willing to plug Kiermaier into center field. The Jays could still try to trade him between now and the July 30 deadline, though they’d clearly need to pay down a portion of his salary to facilitate a deal. For the time being, he’ll try to help Toronto salvage their season. The Jays head into tonight’s series opener in Arizona with a 43-50 record that has them 8.5 games back of the Red Sox for the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Blue Jays Place Kevin Kiermaier On Waivers

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6:37pm: Kiermaier confirmed the report, telling Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet after the game that manager John Schneider informed him of the waiver placement (X link). “It’s the chance for a contending team to claim me if they want, from what I was just told. I totally get it with where we’re at as a team,” the Gold Glove center fielder said.

4:20pm: The Blue Jays have placed outfielder Kevin Kiermaier on waivers, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The goal is seemingly to have another team claim him and take on the remainder of his salary. Kiermaier is still on the 40-man roster and can continue playing for the Jays while on waivers. In fact, he was playing in today’s game against the Giants as this report came out. If he clears waivers, the Jays can outright him or release him but keeping him on the roster would also be an option.

Last year, a new trend started to emerge of players being placed on waivers without being removed from the roster of their home club. This used to be a common practice back when there were two deadlines. Under the previous system, there was one deadline usually around the end of July and another around the end of August. In between those two deadlines, a player could still be traded but had to clear waivers first. This led to teams around the league putting huge numbers of players on waivers, most of whom had contracts that outpaced their on-field contributions, which usually led to them going unclaimed and then potentially being traded.

In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, getting rid of the August waiver trade system. This meant that players being placed on waivers while holding onto a roster spot essentially went away for a few years.

The practice came roaring back last year, thanks to the Angels. That club made an aggressive push at last year’s deadline, trying to win while they still had Shohei Ohtani for a few months. But they hit a big losing streak in August and fell way back in the standings, then pivoted to cost-saving mode. At the end of August, they put Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone on waivers, hoping for another club to claim those guys and take on their salaries. Since the trade deadline had passed, this was their only avenue to cutting salary and lowering their competitive balance tax number.

This wasn’t the end of the waiver madness. The Yankees also put Harrison Bader out there, while Mike Clevinger of the White Sox, Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and José Cisnero of the Tigers were also out there. In each case, the club had fallen out of contention and was simply looking for cost savings by another team taking the player off their hands. It’s also possible that other players were on waivers and it wasn’t publicly known because they didn’t get claimed.

In the end, some players were claimed and other weren’t, though the Angels successfully managed to dip under the line and avoid the competitive balance tax. That was a significant development as it improved the compensation draft pick they received after Ohtani rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Dodgers.

All of that is to say that is the probably the first of several reports that could emerge in the coming months about a player being placed on waivers while still on the team. Sherman uses the word “revocable” in his report, though that’s not entirely accurate. Revocable trade waivers no longer exist, but what Sherman likely means is that Kiermaier isn’t necessarily gone from the Blue Jays. Because they haven’t removed him from the 40-man roster by designating him for assignment, he can simply be retained if no one claims him. As an example, Grichuk went unclaimed last year, stayed with the Angels and was put back on waivers again in September. He cleared that time as well and was still playing for the club at the end of the season. But if someone does claim Kiermaier, he’ll be gone, as was the case with Giolito, Moore and several others who were claimed last year.

It seems fairly unlikely that Kiermaier will end up claimed. He’s playing this season on a one-year deal with a $10.5MM salary, with about $4.5MM of that still to be paid out. He still has wheels and is a strong defender but is hitting just .183/.232/.290. A contending team might be interested in him as a fourth outfielder who can pinch run and serve as a defensive replacement, but there’s little incentive for them to take on that salary right now. There’s still over two weeks until the July 30 trade deadline and interested clubs will have until then to work out a deal wherein the Jays eat some of the money, unless some club is willing to simply absbord the whole thing right now.

Whether Kiermaier is ultimately claimed or not, it does send a signal to where the Jays are at right now, as Sherman points out. The Jays are 42-50 as of this writing and 8.5 games back of a playoff spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them just a 2% chance if making it into the postseason. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish but only slightly, giving the Jays a 6.2% shot.

Barring an incredible winning streak in the next two weeks, the Jays will likely enter the deadline period at sellers and recent reporting has pointed to them making rental players available. One of those is Kiermaier, but the list also includes Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yimi García, Trevor Richards and Yusei Kikuchi. Whether they look for cost savings or prospect capital in those trades remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s struggles this year won’t allow him to bring back any huge prospect package regardless, so the Jays have opted to see if they can simply get maximum cost savings with this move.

The Jays currently have a CBT number of $247MM, per both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with only a tiny difference between the calculations of those two sites. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, so the Jays could avoid paying the tax by shedding more than $10MM from their CBT calculation, so a claim of Kiermaier could get them about halfway there.

If they did manage to duck under the line, the cost savings would be minimal. The Jays are a on pace to be a second-time payor and are therefore subject to a base tax rate of just 30% on spending over the line, meaning they’d currently be lined up for a tax bill of roughly $3MM. But the CBT features growing tax rates for repeat payors, so even teams that pay it regularly like to “reset” their status by ducking under from time to time. If the Jays did that this year, they would be able to theoretically pay the CBT in 2025 as a “first-time” payor as opposed to a “third-time” payor. Paying the CBT also leads to a larger penalty for signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer and reduces the compensation a team receives for a QO player signing elsewhere.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Blue Jays Activate Alek Manoah From Injured List

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TODAY: The Blue Jays announced Manoah’s activation today, and optioned left-hander Brendon Little to Triple-A in order to make room for the righty on the active roster. Little, 27, has just four innings of work at the big league level under his belt from his time with the Cubs and Blue Jays and has surrendered seven runs in that time, with four strikeouts and two walks.

May 4: Alek Manoah is set to make his return to the majors on Sunday, as MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (X link) reports that the Blue Jays will officially activate Manoah from the 15-day injured list.  Manoah will start against the Nationals in his season debut, and the right-hander is already in Washington and in the Jays’ clubhouse today in preparation.

Manoah hasn’t pitched in the Show since August 10, when he allowed four runs in four innings in a 4-3 Blue Jays loss to the Guardians.  He was optioned to Triple-A the next day, which was the second time that he was sent to the minors during his disaster of a 2023 season.  After struggling badly at the start of the season, Manoah was sent to the Complex League for a deeper dive on his mechanics, and he spent about a month working things out.  Toronto recalled him last July but the results weren’t much better, so Manoah was against optioned to Triple-A yet he didn’t actually pitch during the assignment.

These many months later, it still isn’t exactly clear why Manoah’s 2023 season came to such an abrupt end, amidst some rumors of a possible injury or service time-related displeasure over his demotion.  The questions continued in Spring Training when Manoah made just one (rough) appearance before being sidelined with shoulder problems, and he began the season on the 15-day IL in order to make up for that lost spring prep time.  The results were mixed at best over five rehab starts, as Manoah posted an 8.69 ERA over 19 2/3 innings.

Manoah’s most recent Triple-A outing, however, was easily his best.  On April 30, Manoah allowed a run on two hits and two walks over six innings, while recording 12 strikeouts.  Since the Jays had to make a decision anyway on Manoah since his rehab window was about to close, the righty’s strong start helped make things easier on the team, plus Toronto is also facing a rotation vacancy.

Yariel Rodriguez was placed on the 15-day IL earlier this week, and with Bowden Francis also on hurt, Manoah was the most logical option if the Jays didn’t want to opt for a bullpen game.  Because the Jays have four off-days within the first 16 days of May, they didn’t technically need a fifth starter, and could’ve just kept the other four starters on their usual turns.  Adding a fifth arm gives the others extra rest, and it also shows some faith on the team’s part that Manoah has overcome some of the problems that have inexplicably set back his career.

Manoah pitched really well as a rookie in 2021, and was even better in 2022 while posting a 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings and finishing third in AL Cy Young Award voting.  All signs pointed to the former first-rounder becoming a staple of Toronto’s rotation, except his numbers suddenly plummeted downward in 2023.  Batters were suddenly making tons of hard contact against Manoah’s offerings (after he had some of the best hard-hit ball stats in the league in 2021-22), and his walk rate skyrocketed to 14.2%.

As surprising as it was to see Manoah sharply regress, it would be equally surprising to see him quickly revert to his ace form over the course of the 2024 campaign.  Just pitching well enough to stick in the majors would count as a nice sign of progress that Manoah was getting closer to being on track, plus that scenario would naturally be a huge help for the Blue Jays’ rotation depth.  If Manoah is able to last as a fifth starter, Rodriguez and Francis could be deployed as swingmen when healthy, adding enough length to keep the relief corps fresh over the course of the season.

In a more immediate Blue Jays roster move, Kevin Kiermaier was activated from the 10-day injured list today, with outfielder Nathan Lukes sent down to Triple-A.  Kiermaier ended up missing only a minimal amount of time due to hip flexor inflammation, which is a relief given how Kiermaier underwent hip surgery in 2022.  The IL trip might well serve as a reset on Kiermaier’s season, as he was hitting only .193/.246/.228 in 62 plate appearances before being sidelined.

Blue Jays Promote Addison Barger For Major League Debut

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The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Kevin Kiermaier has been placed on the 10-day injured list with left hip flexor inflammation. Infielder/outfielder Addison Barger was recalled in a corresponding move and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Johnny Giunta of the Gate 14 Podcast reported Barger’s promotion prior to the official announcement.

Kiermaier was removed from last night’s game with flexor discomfort in his left hip. He underwent surgery on that hip in July of 2022 while with the Rays, spending the rest of that season on the injured list.

He managed to bounce back from that procedure and stay largely healthy with the Jays in 2023. He got into 129 games last year, just the third time in his career that he hit that tally and only the second since 2015. That led him and the Jays to reconnect on yet another one-year deal, though his 2024 season has been rough so far. He’s hit .193/.246/.246 through 62 plate appearances and will now land on the shelf to rehab this injury. It’s unclear how long the Jays expect him to be out of action.

Thankfully for the Jays, they have another excellent defensive center fielder who can step in. Like Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho is known for his strong glovework out on the grass/turf but he’s been in good form with the bat this year. He’s hit six home runs in his last 11 games and is slashing .250/.325/.569 on the year overall. He’s spent more time in left field with Kiermaier in center but will now slide over and take the bulk of the playing time up the middle.

The injury will open up room for Barger to make his major league debut. Now 24, he was a sixth-round selection of the Jays back in 2018 but launched himself onto the prospect map in 2022. That year, he went from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, hitting 26 home runs and slashing .308/.378/.555. After that season, the Jays added him to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the #4 prospect in the club’s system.

2023 was a bit of a setback, with Barger missing time due to an elbow injury. He only got into 88 Triple-A games and hit a diminished .250/.353/.403 in that time. He seems to be healthy and back on track here in 2024, as he’s currently slashing .314/.435/.586 for the year. He has three home runs and is walking almost as much as he’s striking out, a 16.5% rate of free passes compared to a 17.6% rate of punchouts.

Barger has played all around the infield but has also seen increasing time in right field over the past two seasons, a natural fit for him since he’s considered to have an excellent throwing arm. With Varsho in center, perhaps George Springer moves from right to left on occasion, or Barger simply helps out in left field. If players like Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement or Isiah Kiner-Falefa spend more time in the outfield, Barger can factor into the infield mix instead.

The left-handed bat of Barger will also be a good fit for a fairly righty-heavy lineup. With Kiermaier on the IL, the primary lefties for the Jays are just Varsho and Biggio. Daniel Vogelbach is also on the roster but has been in a fairly narrow role due to his limited defensive value. With Justin Turner the primary designated hitter, Vogelbach has made just three starts as the DH this year, in addition to a few pinch-hitting appearances.

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