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Keone Kela

Dodgers Sign Keone Kela To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have signed right-hander Keone Kela to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The deal is listed as taking place on August 31, which is significant as 11:59pm ET on August 31 was the postseason eligibility cutoff. Those within an organization but not on the 40-man at the start of September can still be added to the postseason roster to replace a player on the injured list via petition to the commissioner’s office.

Kela, 29, has spent time with the Rangers, Pirates and Padres in his MLB career. Since debuting in 2015, he’s thrown 227 1/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. He’s often been trusted with high leverage situations as well, having racked up 28 saves and 59 holds in his career.

Unfortunately, health issues have slowed him down in recent years. In 2020, a positive COVID test and forearm tightness limited him to just two innings on the season. Last year, he logged 10 2/3 frames before requiring Tommy John surgery in May. He signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks for this season and returned to the mound in July. He threw 12 innings between Arizona’s Complex League team and the Triple-A  Reno Aces. He was released and latched on with the Dodgers last week.

It’s been a few years since Kela has been able to be effective over an extended stretch, but he threw 29 2/3 innings for the Pirates in 2019 with a 2.12 ERA. If his return to game action after his lengthy layoff goes well, he could be an option for a Dodgers team that has the best record in baseball and is cruising into the postseason. That’s despite a bevy of injuries to the pitching staff, as the club currently has 10 hurlers on the IL. If they should need a fresh arm to join the team down the stretch or in the playoffs, Kela could provide them with an intriguing option.

Several Veterans On Minor League Deals Have Sunday Opt-Outs

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The latest collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association is rife with contractual intricacies, as one would expect. MLBTR has confirmed that one of the new wrinkles set forth in this latest agreement stipulates that any Article XX(B) free agent — that is, a player with at least six years of service time who finished the prior season on a big league roster or injured list — who signs a minor league contract will have three uniform opt-out dates in his contract, so long as that minor league deal is signed 10 days prior to Opening Day. Those opt-out dates are five days before the start of the regular season, May 1 and June 1.

As the MLBPA announced at the onset of the most recent offseason, there were 188 players who became Article XX(B) free agents. The majority of those players signed Major League contracts. A handful retired, and some have yet to sign a contract at all. There were still more than two dozen players who signed minor league contracts, however, which makes them subject to the new uniform opt-out dates. Several of those players — Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Moore and Wily Peralta, to name a few — have already had their contracts selected to the Major League roster. Others signed their minor league deal after March 28, meaning they’re not covered under the uniform opt-out provision.

By my count, there are a dozen players who qualified as Article XX(B) free agents, signed minor league deals on or before March 28, and remain with those organizations but not on the 40-man roster. Each of the following veterans, then, will have the opportunity to become a free agent Sunday if they’re not called up to the current organization’s big league roster:

  • Tyler Clippard, RHP, Nationals: The 37-year-old Clippard had a strong 2019 season in Cleveland and pitched brilliantly with Minnesota in 2020. His 2021 campaign with the D-backs was solid but truncated by a strained capsule in his right shoulder. He missed nearly four months to begin the year but pitched to a 3.20 ERA in 25 1/3 innings upon activation — albeit with subpar strikeout and walk rates (19.8% and 9.9%, respectively). He’s had a rough go in Triple-A Rochester so far, yielding seven runs on six hits and a whopping 11 walks in 8 1/3 innings. He’s also picked up a dozen strikeouts.
  • Austin Romine, C, Angels: Romine is 2-for-15 with a pair of singles so far in Triple-A Salt Lake. He’s never provided much with the bat, but the longtime Yankees backup is regarded as a quality defender and receiver. He spent the 2021 season with the Cubs but only logged 62 plate appearances thanks to a sprained left wrist that landed him on the 60-day injured list for a significant portion of the season. Romine hit .217/.242/.300 when healthy last year and is a lifetime .238/.277/.358 hitter in 1313 Major League plate appearances.
  • Billy Hamilton, CF, Mariners: At 31 years old, the former top prospect is what he is now: an elite defender and baserunner who’s never been able to get on base consistently enough to capitalize on his 80-grade speed. Hamilton slashed .220/.242/.378 in 135 plate appearances with the White Sox last season and is out to a 7-for-32 start with one walk and 11 strikeouts so far with the Mariners’ top affiliate. Hamilton has four seasons of 55-plus stolen bases under his belt, but he also has a career .293 OBP  that’s gotten even worse (.269) over the past three seasons (524 plaste appearances).
  • Blake Parker, RHP, Cardinals: Parker, 36, has yielded three runs in 7 1/3 Triple-A frames but is brandishing a far more impressive 11-to-1 K/BB ratio. He split the past two seasons between Philadelphia and Cleveland, pitching to a combined 3.02 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate against a 9.1% walk rate. Parker has had an up-and-down career since debuting with the Cubs as a 27-year-old rookie in 2012, but the cumulative results are solid. He carries a career 3.47 ERA with 34 saves and 47 holds. When Parker’s splitter is working well, he can be a very effective late-inning option.
  • Derek Holland, LHP, Red Sox: The veteran southpaw has provided innings, but not necessarily at quality since transitioning into a bullpen role in 2019. Last season he appeared in 39 games for the Tigers, tossing 49 2/3 innings with a 5.07 ERA/3.96 FIP. Holland’s time with Triple-A Worcester hasn’t been smooth, as he has a 5.79 ERA and six walks over 9 1/3 innings.
  • Steven Souza Jr., OF, Mariners: Due to an ugly knee injury and some struggles at the plate, Souza hasn’t been a truly productive big leaguer since 2017. Looking to revive his career with the Mariners, Souza has hit .200/.383/.333 over 60 PA with Triple-A Tacoma.
  • Kevin Pillar, OF, Dodgers: This season marks Pillar’s first taste of Triple-A ball since 2014, and the veteran outfielder is overmatching pitchers to the tune of a .313/.415/.627 slash line over 82 plate appearances. One would imagine this performance will earn Pillar a look in Los Angeles or perhaps another team if the Dodgers don’t select his contract. Pillar’s minor league deal guarantees him a $2.5MM salary if he receives a big league call-up, which could be a factor for a Dodgers club that may be trying to stay under the third tier ($270MM) of the luxury tax threshold.
  • Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Phillies: After signing a minor league deal with Philadelphia last July, Bedrosian posted a 4.35 ERA over 10 1/3 innings with the club despite recording almost as many walks (seven) as strikeouts (eight). The righty inked a new minors deal with the Phillies over the winter but has yet to pitch this season due to injury.
  • Shelby Miller, RHP, Yankees: The former All-Star pitched well with the Cubs’ and Pirates’ Triple-A affiliates in 2021, and he has kept up that strong Triple-A performance now working as a full-time reliever.  Over eight innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barres, Miller has a 2.25 ERA with outstanding strikeout (31.3%) and walk (3.1%) rates. He also hasn’t allowed any homers, a notable stat for a pitcher who has had great trouble containing the long ball over the last few seasons.
  • Matt Carpenter, INF, Rangers: Carpenter got a late start to Spring Training, and upon Opening Day, he expressed a desire to take the necessary time to get himself up to speed. Through 52 plate appearances in Triple-A, Carpenter has slashed an improved .239/.327/.457 with a pair of home runs. While not standout numbers, they are an improvement over the .203/.235/.346 slash line Carpenter posted in 901 PA from 2019-21 with the Cardinals.
  • Carlos Martinez, RHP, Giants: Another former Cardinal looking for a fresh start, Martinez has yet to pitch for Triple-A Sacramento, as he is still rehabbing from the thumb surgery he underwent last July. With injuries and a nasty bout of COVID-19 factoring into matters, Martinez has only a 6.95 ERA over 102 1/3 big league innings since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Keone Kela, RHP, Diamondbacks: Kela has also been ravaged by injuries over the last two seasons, including Tommy John surgery last May. Given the usual TJ recovery timeline, Kela isn’t likely to be a factor for the D’Backs until at least midseason.

Of course, players remain free to negotiate additional out clauses into their minor league contracts. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports, for instance, that lefty Adam Morgan has an opt-out provision in his contract with the Astros today. Morgan doesn’t have enough service time to qualify as an Article XX(B) free agent, but he’ll nevertheless have the opportunity to become a free agent Sunday if he doesn’t like his chances of eventually being added to Houston’s roster.

D-backs, Keone Kela Agree To Minor League Deal

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The D-backs have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran righty Keone Kela, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray. Kela had Tommy John surgery mid-May in 2021, so he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season but will give Arizona a potential high-end reliever to join the bullpen at some point midseason.

The 28-year-old (29 next month) has seven seasons of MLB experience under his belt, spending time with the Rangers, Pirates and Padres. From 2015 to 2019, he appeared in 228 games, throwing 214 2/3 innings, recording a 3.23 ERA, along with an excellent 30.1% strikeout rate and slightly-high 9.4% walk rate.

Unfortunately, health issues have slowed him down since then. In 2020, a positive COVID-test and forearm tightness limited him to just two innings on the season. Last year, he logged 10 2/3 frames before requiring Tommy John. As part of his contract with the Padres, the surgery meant that they were allowed to retain Kela for 2022 via a club option valued at $800K. However, they decided not to pick that up, presumably not confident that Kela could make it back to the mound in time for it to be worth their while. Tommy John surgery typically comes with a recovery time of 12 to 18 months for pitchers, meaning that Kela could be ready to go a few months into the season but also could miss the entire year.

For the Diamondbacks, they are coming off a miserable 52-110 campaign that saw them even with the Orioles for worst record in the majors. Despite that, they don’t seem interested in stripping down the roster, instead opting for making some upgrades and hoping for better results this year. In the bullpen, they’ve already added Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, who are likely to take the high leverage spots. If Kela can come back from his surgery and perform like he did from 2015 to 2019, he’ll give the club yet another experienced veteran to help out their relief corps. Should the team struggle to contend again, these relievers could all make for intriguing trade chips at the deadline.

Padres Announce Several Option Decisions

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The Padres have announced that they exercised their club options over right-handed relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen for the 2022 season. Johnson will be retained for $3MM while Stammen will return on a $4MM salary.

While the two relievers offer differing skillsets, it was an easy call to hold onto both players for similar salaries. In 2021 Johnson posted a solid 3.22 ERA and again mystified the opposition with a 31.6% strikeout percentage that ranks as firmly above average. While the right-hander gives up too many free passes (11.1 BB%) and doesn’t induce many groundballs (33.3 GB%) he has proven adept at avoiding home runs when opponents are actually able to put the ball in play against him.

Stammen, meanwhile, rebounded nicely from an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season where he sported a 5.63 ERA after 24 innings. It’s worth noting that his performance there was impacted by some bad BABIP luck, as the durable reliever’s underlying peripherals largely resemble this year’s successful campaign. Regardless, this recent season saw the BABIP pendulum swing the other way while Stammen’s strikeout rate ticked upward and his 55.1% groundball rate remained typically robust. The 38-year-old will look to replicate this year’s 3.06 ERA next season in what will be his sixth season of a very strong Padres tenure.

They’ve also declined their options over right-handed reliever Keone Kela and outfielder Jake Marisnick. San Diego could have paid Kela $800K and Marisnick $4MM to stay aboard next season, but clearly felt between their respective injury and underperformance neither was worth the entirety of that investment. Marisnick will receive a $500k buyout before heading to free agency.

The Kela decision registers as the greater surprise here, as a strikeout-happy reliever with a career 3.33 ERA on its face seems like a bargain with a sub-$1MM price tag. Still, the 28-year-old is recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t thought to be available until midway through next season. After tallying just 42 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, and some declining bottom-line results, the Padres clearly didn’t feel the fiery right-hander was worth the half-season gamble.

Marisnick, meanwhile, was a no-brainer to have his option declined after an ill-fated midseason deal with the Cubs landed him on the west coast. As a glove-first, center field-capable player Marisnick provided adequate production at the plate in Chicago, delivering a .731 OPS. That number cratered following the trade however, as a subsequent .472 OPS contributed to the Padres year-end skid and negated a good deal of the value Marisnick had built for himself earlier in the year.

Additionally, the team confirmed that utility-man Jurickson Profar has exercised his $7.3MM player option for the upcoming season while right-handed closer Mark Melancon has declined his $5MM player option in favor of a $1MM buyout and trip to free agency. The result of both player options are largely formalities at this point, considering the platform years both players posted.

By measure of bWAR Profar was the definition of a replacement-level player in 2021. The one-time top prospect bounced around five positions and upped his walk-rate to a cool 11.9% across 137 games. Unfortunately, that versatility was undercut by generally poor reviews of Profar’s glovework across 4 of his 5 positions. Furthermore, an inability to hit the ball with much authority meant those 137 games worth of plate appearances led to a punchless .227/.329/.320 slash line. Profar will look to tap into some of the upside that he’s shown flashes of throughout his career before making a call on next year’s $8.3MM player option.

Lastly, the 36-year-old Melancon proved to be one of last offseason’s thriftiest pickups. In return for a $3MM guarantee the veteran gave the Padres outstanding production at the back of their bullpen, leading the league with 39 saves in his fifth All-Star campaign. Some batted ball luck worked in Melancon’s favor this season, suggesting his 2.23 ERA is due for some regression, but a very strong groundball and home run rate— plus a spike in strikeout rate from last season— indicate that Melancon remains a plenty serviceable option as a high leverage reliever.

Padres Activate Wil Myers, Option Brian O’Grady To Triple-A

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The Padres activated Wil Myers from the injured list today. He is in the lineup playing right field. Brian O’Grady, meanwhile, was optioned to Triple-A, while Keone Kela was moved to the 60-day injured list, per the team.

Myers has been out of action since May 11th. The multi-positional righty was off to a solid start at the plate, slashing .255/.342/.415 with four home runs in 120 plate appearances. Myers, the longest-tenured Padre, has taken a backseat to more prominent players in recent years, but he remains a key piece of the lineup. He has settled in as their everyday right fielder after years of shifting around the diamond. His 154 wRC+ in 2020 was easily the highest such mark of his career.

O’Grady has been part of the solution in right field during Myers’ absence, along with Jurickson Profar, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Kivlehan. But O’Grady saw the most time, starting five games versus five starts for the other three players combined. The 29-year-old hit just .100/.268/.150, however, across 27 plate appearances. The most action he has seen in a Major League season is 48 plate appearances with the Reds back in 2019.

Keone Kela Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Padres right-handed reliever Keone Kela underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. Kela will miss the rest of this season and a sizable portion of 2022 as a result. However, because he underwent a TJ procedure, Kela will have an $800K club option for next year kick in.

Formerly with the Rangers and Pirates, the 28-year-old Kela joined the Padres on a one-year, $1.2MM guarantee in the offseason. Kela wound up throwing 10 2/3 innings of eight-run (six earned) ball with 13 strikeouts against three walks before the Padres placed him on the injured list on May 8 with a right forearm strain.

This will go down as another injury-shortened season for Kela, who hasn’t thrown more than 29 2/3 frames in a campaign since 2019. Kela has recorded a rather impressive 3.33 ERA in 227 1/3 innings, but it will unfortunately take quite some time for the 28-year-old to return to a major league mound.

Padres Place Keone Kela On 10-Day Injured List

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The Padres announced that right-hander Keone Kela has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right forearm strain.  Righty Miguel Diaz was called up from Triple-A to take Kela’s spot on the active roster.

Kela pitched to just one batter during a relief appearance in last night’s 5-4 Padres loss to the Giants, as Austin Slater homered off Kela to score the game’s deciding run.  Kela was removed after facing Slater due to an injury that will now keep him out of action for at least the next 10 days, and possibly much longer given the potential seriousness attached to forearm issues.

Due to both forearm tightness and a positive COVID-19 test, Kela was limited to only two innings over three games with the Pirates in 2020.  This season saw the right-hander hit the IL again, missing roughly the 10-day minimum due to shoulder inflammation.  Injuries have been a constant for Kela throughout his pro career, with other elbow and shoulder injuries interrupting what has been a pretty solid series of performances over 227 1/3 career innings with the Padres, Pirates, and Rangers since 2015.

Kela has a 5.06 ERA/3.12 SIERA over 10 2/3 innings with San Diego this season, and while his overall Statcast numbers aren’t very impressive, it’s safe to say that Kela’s injuries have strongly hampered his performance.  Of his six earned runs allowed this season, four have come in the outings directly prior to his two IL placements, when Kela was seemingly not pitching at 100 percent.

Both the Padres’ rotation and bullpen are among the best in baseball despite a swath of injuries this season.  Kela is the 11th pitcher currently on San Diego’s injured list, with maladies ranging from relatively short-term problems to season-ending injuries (i.e. Tommy John surgeries for Adrian Morejon, Jose Castillo, and Michel Baez).

NL Injury Notes: Dodgers, Padres, Brewers

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AJ Pollock of the Dodgers suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain on Friday, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). He’s being re-evaluated today. Pollock has been a force for good in Los Angeles this year, slashing .261/.313/.446 with 4 home runs across 99 plate appearances. Matt Beaty or Sheldon Neuse could see time in the outfield if Pollock needs time off. Elsewhere around the National League last night…

  • The Padres had a couple of players leave Friday’s game due to injury. Keone Kela left with forearm tightness, always a scary diagnoses. There has been no update as per his status. Austin Nola, meanwhile, only recently returned from the injured list, burst a blood vessel in his hand. The Padres are hopeful that he can return to the lineup as early as today, per Dennis Lin of the Athletic (via Twitter).
  • Brent Suter got a spot start for the Brewers on Friday, but he lasted just to the third inning before being removed due to injury. Early reports suggest Suter suffered from cramping in his right calf, per Sophia Minnaert of Bally Sports Wisconsin (via Twitter). That’s potentially a big sigh of relief for Milwaukee. Suter has been effective as a multi-inning reliever out of the pen tossing 16 2/3 innings in 12 outings prior to Friday’s spot start. He has a 2.70 ERA/3.58 FIP on the year with a strong 54.3 percent groundball rate, 22.4 percent strikeout rate, and 6.0 percent walk rate.

Padres Place Dinelson Lamet, Keone Kela On 10-Day IL

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The Padres have placed right-handers Dinelson Lamet and Keone Kela on the 10-day injured list, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The team recalled relievers Nick Ramirez and Nabil Crismatt to fill the open roster spots.

Lamet left his first start of the season Wednesday with right forearm soreness, so it’s no surprise he will miss time. The question is whether Lamet will avoid Tommy John surgery, a procedure he underwent in 2018. Manager Jayce Tingler did offer a promising update on Lamet on Thursday, saying (via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times) that he “feels very, very good” and will try to throw Friday.

“If everything goes well, we’ll shoot for him to make the start after the 10 days are up,” Tingler added.

A quick return for Lamet would be a significant boon for the Padres, considering his troubling history of serious arm issues and his importance to their rotation. Lamet was a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate during a breakout 2020 in which he recorded a 2.09 ERA with a 34.8 percent strikeout rate across 69 innings, but his season came to an end in late September because of a UCL strain. His recovery from that injury put him behind schedule entering this year.

Kela’s joining Lamet on the shelf because of shoulder tightness, Tingler said (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Like Lamet, health problems have held Kela back during his career. Shoulder woes helped limit the former Pirate to 29 2/3 innings in 2019, and then a positive COVID-19 test and forearm tightness held him to two frames last year.

Despite Kela’s lack of durability from 2019-20,  the Padres elected to take a $1.2MM flyer on him in free agency. The results were encouraging until Wednesday, when Kela took a loss against the Brewers after yielding three earned runs on two hits and a walk in a 34-pitch inning of work. Overall, Kela has has allowed four earned runs on eight hits with 12 strikeouts against three walks in 8 2/3 frames.

MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown

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The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

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