- Kris Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery last April, and the Royals southpaw told Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star that he is now about 10 days away from his first bullpen session. Bubic expects to return around the middle of the season given the usual TJ recovery timeline, and he is taking the opportunity during his rehab to make some mechanical changes, as well as looking forward to continue work on developing a slider as a new pitch in his arsenal. Bubic was the 40th overall pick of the 2018 draft, and is one of several well-regarded Royals pitching prospects who have yet to really break out at the big league level, thus greatly hampering Kansas City’s rebuild efforts. The Tommy John procedure provided yet another obstacle for the 26-year-old Bubic, who has a 4.85 ERA over 325 career Major League innings.
Royals Rumors
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.
Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.
It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.
NL West
Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson
Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso
Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.
Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb
The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.
Padres: Tucupita Marcano
Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.
Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.
NL Central
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: None.
Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,
Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.
Reds: None.
NL East
Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo
Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.
Marlins: Sandy Alcántara
Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.
Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson
Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy
By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Phillies: None.
AL West
Angels: José Quijada
Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.
Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.
Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.
Athletics: Ken Waldichuk
In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.
Mariners: None.
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman
deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.
AL Central
Guardians: Daniel Espino
Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor
Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.
Tigers: None.
Twins: Josh Staumont
Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.
White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin
Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.
AL East
Blue Jays: None.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.
Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls
Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.
Red Sox: None.
Yankees: Jasson Domínguez
Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.
MLBTR Podcast: The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The sale of the Orioles (2:50)
- The Orioles acquire Corbin Burnes from the Brewers (12:05)
- The Royals give Bobby Witt Jr. an 11-year extension (26:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
- The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Royals Sign Bobby Witt Jr. To 11-Year Extension
The Royals are retaining their franchise shortstop well into the next decade. Kansas City announced the signing of Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension on Monday afternoon. The Octagon client is reportedly guaranteed nearly $288.78MM on the largest contract in team history. Witt has multiple chances to opt out of the deal, as he’ll be able to test free agency after the 2030, ’31, ’32 and ’33 seasons. If he doesn’t exercise any of those opt-out clauses, the Royals would receive a three-year team option after the ’34 campaign. That’s an $89MM provision covering the 2035-37 seasons, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $377MM over 14 years. Witt has a full no-trade clause.
Witt receives a $7.777777MM signing bonus. The salaries break down as follows:
- 2024: $2MM
- 2025: $7MM
- 2026: $13MM
- 2027: $19MM
- 2028: $30MM
- 2029-34: $35MM annually
- 2035: $33MM
- 2036-37: $28MM annually
It’s a stunning deal that more than triples the previous franchise-record, which was the $82MM extension signed by Salvador Pérez in March of 2021. It was reported back in November that Witt and the club had engaged in some preliminary talks but it would have been fair for fans to be skeptical of anything getting done. The club’s payroll has never been higher than 15th in the league in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, making it hard to predict them for any kind of mega deal.
Witt is still fairly early in his career, having just two years of service time and not yet qualifying for arbitration. But even pre-arb deals for superstar players have grown to a massive scale in recent years. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Brewers gave Jackson Chourio $82MM before he even reached the majors. Players like Julio Rodríguez and Corbin Carroll got to $210MM and $111MM, respectively, before even getting to one year of service time. Witt has exactly two years of service, having cracked the club’s Opening Day roster in 2022. The apex for players between two and three years of MLB service is the 14-year, $340MM extension between the Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Given those escalating prices and the typical low-spending ways of the Royals, it was difficult to see the two sides coming together and getting a deal done. But the Royals have extended well beyond their comfort zone, shattering their previous franchise record. For Witt, he didn’t quite get the same guarantee as Tatis but he could end up earning more than him via that option. The opt-outs also give him extra earning power, either by allowing him to test the open market or by leveraging those opt-outs into future contract talks with the Royals.
The fact that the Royals were willing to go to such extreme lengths is a reflection of Witt’s incredible talents as a player. The second overall pick in the 2019 draft, behind only Adley Rutschman of the Orioles, Witt showed his potential with a solid rookie showing in 2022. As mentioned, he cracked the club’s Opening Day roster, and eventually appeared in 150 games that year. His 4.7% walk rate was on the low side, but he limited his strikeouts to a 21.4% clip while launching 20 home runs. His .254/.294/.428 line was just a bit below average, wRC+ of 98. He also stole 30 bases, though his glovework wasn’t highly rated, split between shortstop and third base.
Last year, he took steps forward in just about every respect of his game. He decreased his strikeout rate to 17.4% while bumping his walk rate slightly to 5.8%. His home run tally jumped from 20 to 30 and he increased his steal tally to 49. His .276/.319/.495 batting line led to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he was 15% better than league average at the plate.
On the defensive side of things, he stayed at shortstop all year and seemed to cement himself as a viable franchise cornerstone there. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t too enthused, giving him a grade of -6, but that was still an upgrade over the -18 he was tagged with at shortstop the year before. But Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade of 3.2 in 2023 while his tally of 14 Outs Above Average was one of the best in the league. Only Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames and Ezequiel Tovar racked up more OAA among shortstops last year.
That combination of offense, speed and defense makes him one of the most exciting and valuable players in the league. His 5.7 wins above replacement via FanGraphs was 11th among all position players last year and he finished seventh in American League Most Valuable Player voting.
It’s been a rough few years for the Royals, as they just lost 106 games last year and haven’t been above .500 since 2015. But it seems there has been a concerted effort this winter to give the fans more reasons to be excited. The club has given significant deals to free agents like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Will Smith and Chris Stratton in an effort to improve the club’s chances in 2024. Witt was already on the roster and this deal won’t alter the club’s fortunes in 2024, but it does send a strong message that they are willing to commit to a player they feel can be the face of the franchise for years to come.
Owner John Sherman only purchased the team towards the end of 2019 and things have been fairly dreary for the franchise since then, as they have struggled to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. But the club has been trying to secure government funding for a new stadium and perhaps this offseason’s spending is an attempt to build some good will between ownership and a fanbase that hasn’t had much to cheer about lately.
Regardless of the motives, it’s a massive deal and surely an exciting one for the supporters. Witt is one of the most talented players in the league and he’ll now be locked into the Kansas City lineup for the foreseeable future. His first opt-out chance will come after 2030, which will be his age-30 campaign. At that point, he’ll be deciding whether to stick around or leave four years and $140MM on the table to become a free agent. Assuming he continues to perform at a superstar level, that would be a fairly easy decision. He could likely double that even with today’s dollars and seven years of inflation would only help him. But it seems that he and the club have a good relationship, so perhaps another deal could be worked out to keep him with the Royals at that point.
“I am incredibly grateful to the Sherman family and the Royals front office for believing in me,” Witt said on X today, “and I promise to do everything in my power to help bring championship baseball back to Kansas City! Let’s go!!”
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals and Witt were in agreement on an 11-year, $288.8MM deal. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the deal included a three-year team option. Passan reported the inclusion of opt-out clauses after years seven, eight, nine and ten; Passan was also first to report the $89MM value of the three-year option as well as the $7.78MM signing bonus. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the specific salary breakdown. FanSided’s Robert Murray had reported on Sunday that the Royals and Witt had reopened extension talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed the full no-trade clause.
Picollo On Roles For Massey, Frazier
The latest move in a busy Royals offseason brought veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to Kansas City on a one-year deal. Though Frazier has a long track record as an everyday player, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo suggested following the signing that Michael Massey will still be the regular second baseman, with Frazier operating in more of a utility role (link via Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star).
“[Massey] needs to be a big part of our team, and we shared that with [Frazier] last week,” Picollo stated. The second-year K.C. GM stressed the importance of being up-front with a veteran like Frazier about the role he’d likely be stepping into. That, it seems, won’t be an everyday one. Picollo noted that with his defensive versatility, Frazier “can protect us, so to speak, in a lot of ways.”
Massey, who’ll turn 26 in March, has logged significant big league time in each of the past two seasons but has yet to solidify himself as a productive big league hitter. Selected by the Royals in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, Massey breezed through the minors. He’s a .293/.355/.503 hitter in the minors overall, and he slashed an impressive .312/.371/.532 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 before getting his first call to the big leagues.
Unfortunately for both Massey and the Royals, that level of output hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. The lefty-swinging second baseman has appeared in 181 games over the past two seasons and turned in a middling .233/.284/.379 slash. Massey didn’t walk at prolific rates in the minors, but his 5.2% walk rate in 655 MLB plate appearances is clearly lacking. He’s popped 19 home runs and struck out at a slightly lower-than-average 21.5% clip, but his 88.8 mph exit velocity and 38.7% hard-hit rate are both a bit shy of league average.
To his credit, Massey improved down the stretch in 2023. His second-half batting line of .237/.271/.434 still sits well below average, but he cut his strikeout rate from a glaring 28.2% in 200 first-half plate appearances to 15.4% in 228 second-half trips to the plate. Massey reduced his chase rate on pitches off the plate, greatly improved his contact rate on pitches within the zone and generally swung through fewer pitches. The overall quality of his contact didn’t improve much, but the frequency of it did. Were it not for a .238 average on balls in play in that stretch of 228 plate appearances, the second half of his season would likely look a whole lot better.
The 2024 season will be an important one for Massey. He’s still relatively young, heading into his age-26 season, but with another year of comparable production to what he’s already displayed at the MLB level, it’ll be far more difficult for the Royals to continue with him in a prominent role. To that end, that’s one of the areas in which Frazier affords the team some of the “protection” mentioned by Picollo. Frazier’s own production has dropped off since his Pirates days, but last year’s .240/.300/.396 is better across the board than Massey’s was.
Frazier also offers some protection against an uncertain outfield group. MJ Melendez is another once-promising Royals farmhand who’s yet to hit in the big leagues. Free agent signee Hunter Renfroe hits lefties far better than righties. The hope is surely for him to patrol right field on an everyday basis, but if Renfroe struggles, Frazier does have nearly 400 career innings in right field. He also provides the Royals with injury depth for each of Massey, Melendez and Renfroe.
Mariners Acquire Samad Taylor From Royals
The Mariners announced that they have acquired infielder/outfielder Samad Taylor from the Royals in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported earlier that the two sides were working on a small deal so that Kansas City could open up a roster spot for Adam Frazier, whose deal is now official.
Taylor, 25, was able to make his major league debut with the Royals last year, after coming over from the Blue Jays in the 2022 Whit Merrifield trade. He made 69 plate appearances in 31 games, striking out at a 31.9% clip but also drawing walks at a healthy 10.1% rate, finishing the year with a .200/.279/.267 batting line. That offense was obviously subpar, but he also stole eight bases without getting caught and provided defensive versatility, lining up at second base, third base, left field and center field.
He has fared much better with the bat in the minors. In 89 Triple-A games last year, he paired a 15.9% walk rate with a 20.5% strikeout rate and slashed .301/.418/.466 for a wRC+ of 128. He swiped 43 bags in 53 tries while playing the same four positions that he played in the majors. If he could bring some of that offense up to the majors with him in the future, it would pair nicely with his speed and ability to shuffle around the diamond.
Though he got squeezed off the Kansas City roster, the M’s opened up a spot in last night’s Jorge Polanco trade, sending Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani to Minnesota. They will use that to add Taylor into their position player mix. He still has a couple of options and could find himself getting regular reps in Triple-A if he doesn’t secure a bench spot. Polanco will be the regular at the keystone while Luis Urías and Josh Rojas could be platooning at third, while players like Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty will be in the mix for part-time/bench roles. In the outfield, Julio Rodríguez, Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley could be in line for regular playing time with players like Taylor Trammell, Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe on hand as depth options.
Royals Sign Adam Frazier
An active offseason for the Royals continued Tuesday, as the team announced the signing of veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to a one-year contract with a 2025 mutual option. Frazier, a client of McKinnis Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $4.5MM in the form of a $2MM base salary in 2024 and a $2.5MM buyout on the 2025 option, which is valued at $8.5MM.
Frazier hit .240/.300/.396 over 445 plate appearances with the Orioles last season, after inking a one-year, $8MM contract back in December 2022. Brought in to provide some veteran leadership within a young Baltimore infield, Frazier got the bulk of starting second base duty, with Ramon Urias acting a platoon partner in the first half of the season and then Jordan Westburg stepping into the platoon after making his MLB debut. With Westburg tabbed for a bigger role and star prospect Jackson Holliday also on the verge of his Major League debut and joining Gunnar Henderson in the Baltimore infield in 2024, the Orioles seemed content with moving on from Frazier and turning things over to their impresssive young core.
In signing with Kansas City, Frazier is basically assuming the same role as an experienced big leaguer on an overall young team, even if the Royals have been aggressive in adding some veteran help. Most of their moves have come on the pitching end (i.e. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and a host of relievers), though the Royals also addressed their position-player mix by signing outfielder Hunter Renfroe to a two-year, $13MM pact and utilityman Garrett Hampson on a one-year, $2MM contract.
The platoon fit isn’t quite as clean in K.C. as it was in Baltimore, as presumptive second baseman Michael Massey is also a left-handed hitter. However, Massey has yet to show much against big league pitching, with only a .233/.284/.379 slash line to show over the small sample size of 655 career PA. The Royals obviously still want to see what they have in Massey, and Frazier’s ability to play the corner outfield also creates some room for both players to be in the lineup when a righty is on the mound.
It is also fair to wonder what the 32-year-old Frazier can deliver at the plate, given how his own numbers have been subpar for the better part of four seasons. Frazier has a .260/.323/.370 slash line and a 94 wRC+ over 1926 PA since the start of the 2020 season, and those numbers are buoyed by a great first half of the 2021 campaign. Frazier was even named to the 2021 All-Star Game based on that early showing, yet a hefty BABIP suggested that some regression was in order, and that downturn came after Frazier was dealt to the Padres at the trade deadline.
Frazier has been one of the better contact hitters in baseball over the course of his eight-year career, as only 22 qualified hitters have a lower strikeout rate than the 13% number Frazier has posted since debuting with Pittsburgh in 2016. The problem is that Frazier’s hard-contact and barrel rates are near the bottom of the league in that same period, and with a subpar 7.4% walk rate, Frazier’s offense has tended to wane unless the batted-ball luck is swinging in his favor.
Usually a very solid defensive second baseman, Frazier’s glovework tumbled last year in the view of public defensive metrics. His 0.2 UZR/150 was just slightly above average, while his -4 Defensive Runs Saved and -15 Outs Above Average painted a more dire picture. Frazier has been passable enough as an outfielder that he could get more looks in the corners if Massey hits well enough to draw regular work at the keystone, and he could complement Renfroe in right field or MJ Melendez (another left-handed bat) in left field.
While none of the Royals’ expenditures this offseason have individually counted as splurges, the club had already spent $101MM on free agents even before signing Frazier. K.C. is projected by Roster Resource for an $111.5MM payroll without Frazier’s still-unknown price tag added, so the Royals have topped their $91MM payroll from 2023 by a healthy margin. This tracks with general manager J.J. Picollo’s statement in early December that the Royals were going to increase their payroll around $30MM this winter, with some possible flexibility to spend even more in the right scenario.
After winning the World Series in 2015, Kansas City was a .500 team in 2016 and has now posted seven straight losing seasons. A rebuilding process has either yet to fully materialize or has stalled out entirely, given how the Royals’ 106 losses last season matched the highest total in franchise history. Picollo (who took over the front office late in the 2022 season) might have gotten some leeway in his first full year as GM because a lot of focus was placed on revamping the team’s developmental system, yet it is clear the Royals are aiming to be much more respectable on the field in 2024. Most of their offseason signings have been pretty short-term in nature, so if necessary, K.C. could pivot to trading any of these veterans at the deadline if the club again isn’t in contention.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement between the two parties. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the financial terms.
Royals Exploring Trade Market For High-Leverage Relievers
The Royals have been one of the game’s most active teams this winter but don’t appear done with their offseason just yet. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Kansas City still hopes to add a closer to its bullpen and is currently looking at the trade market now that free agency has been largely picked over.
While a handful of names have popped up on the trade market this offseason, Kansas City may be just as hard-pressed to find a closer via trade as in free agency. The Guardians listened to offers on closer Emmanuel Clase at the Winter Meetings in December, but he’s signed for another five years. That’d point to a massive asking price in return, and the price for a division-rival club might be even steeper.
More recently, Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen has surfaced in rumors, but the Royals’ projected $112MM payroll is already going to be the team’s highest since 2018. Adding Jansen’s $16MM salary would give the Royals their third-highest payroll ever, trailing only the 2016-17 seasons that immediately followed their consecutive World Series appearances (and 2015 World Series victory).
Any mention of a team trading for a closer figures to reignite yearslong speculation about Pirates star David Bednar, but a move involving the Pittsburgh native seems overwhelmingly unlikely. Bednar remains highly affordable and is controllable for another three seasons. The Pirates’ offseason has been focused on adding pieces rather than subtracting them, and owner Bob Nutting recently commented at length about his desire to contend in 2024. A trade of Bednar would register as a legitimate surprise at this point.
It bears mentioning that trading for “a closer” is a somewhat nebulous description. Players like Clase and Jansen are clear, set-in-stone closers with their respective clubs, but many teams take a committee approach to the ninth inning. Others are content to plug in a less-experienced arm and hope for solid results, as the Nationals did last year with Kyle Finnegan, for instance. The 32-year-old Finnegan was available at the trade deadline but didn’t change hands. He paced the Nats with 28 saves, bringing his career total to 50. That certainly qualifies him as a “closer,” but it’d be a stretch to think that makes him more preferable to the Royals than, say, a younger high-end setup man with more club control and superior rate stats but fewer saves.
However the Royals want to define their targets, the implication is clear: they’re looking for a leverage arm to pitch meaningful innings in what they hope will be a much-improved 2024 season. Kansas City has already signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Garrett Hampson to big league deals totaling $105MM in value. They acquired righty Nick Anderson from the Braves, and in a separate deal with Atlanta picked up injured starter Kyle Wright, who’ll likely miss the ’24 season following shoulder surgery but is controllable via arbitration through 2026.
As things stand, the veteran Smith and righty James McArthur are probably the front-runners to close games in Kansas City. Smith has 113 career saves and signed a one-year, $5MM deal to return to the organization with which he made his MLB debut back in 2012. McArthur was a speculative pickup after being cut loose by the Phillies, and after a slow start he finished out the season with 16 1/3 shutout innings, 19 strikeouts and no walks in his final 12 appearances. Stratton and Anderson give the Royals a pair of experienced setup options — health permitting, in Anderson’s case — and they’ll likely be joined by flamethrowing righty Carlos Hernandez.
It’s somewhat interesting to note that the Royals are only a few months removed from trading prior closer Scott Barlow, who went to the Padres at last summer’s trade deadline (and has since been shipped to Cleveland). That swap arguably came a few months too late, as Barlow’s rocky first half in 2023 surely caused his stock to dip from where it’d been after he notched a 2.62 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate with 42 saves from 2020-22.
The Royals’ wide-reaching slate of acquisitions to this point have undoubtedly bettered the roster, but Kansas City would need to improve by a magnitude of around 30 games to have a real postseason chance after going 56-106 last year. Extensive as their acquisitions from outside the organization have been, that’s not likely to become a reality without some meaningful improvements from young players already in house. Adding another quality bullpen arm to the late-inning mix can only help, but it’s a steep road back to contention after losing a combined 203 games over the past two seasons.
Royals Sign Sandy León To Minor League Deal
The Royals announced that they have signed catcher Sandy León to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training. The backstop is a client of The MAS+ Agency.
León, 35 in March, has appeared in each of the past 12 major league seasons as a glove-first catcher. He had one terrific season at the plate, hitting .310/.369/.476 for the Red Sox in 2016. But for his career, he has hit .208/.276/.311 for a wRC+ of 56. He got 44 plate appearances for the Rangers last year but hit just .146/.186/.195 in those.
It’s a different story when León is behind the plate, however. He has 33 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, with positive framing marks from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Statcast considers him to be above average both in terms of his blocking and his work with the running game.
With MJ Melendez seemingly a full-time outfielder now, that leaves the Royals with just two catchers on their 40-man roster. Salvador Pérez has been the club’s primary backstop for over a decade, but he’s going into his age-34 season and the club might gradually wean him off the position. He made 90 starts behind the plate last year but also 21 at first base and 29 as the designated hitter. Freddy Fermin had a solid season in 2023 and should be in line to split the catching duties with Perez again this year.
León can be in camp to serve as a veteran receiver to the many young pitchers in the organization. If either Pérez or Fermin suffer an injury at any point during the year, he would be an option to come up to the big leagues. Pérez could also move to first more regularly if Vinnie Pasquantino needs to go on the IL, which would also open up a role for another catcher.
The Royals briefly used Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley as depth catchers last year. Both have since been outrighted off the roster and each is still in the organization as non-roster depth. Neither of them has more than a few weeks in the big leagues, however, in contrast to León’s 557 games in the majors dating back to his 2012 debut.
Billy Gardner Passes Away
Former MLB infielder and manager Billy Gardner passed away last week at age 96, according to the Hall of Fame (X link). An obituary is available courtesy of The Day in Gardner’s hometown of New London, Connecticut.
Gardner, who was born in 1927, signed with the then-New York Giants out of high school. He played in their minor league ranks for almost a decade before reaching the majors in 1954. The right-handed hitter played sporadically at the MLB level from 1954-55, appearing in 121 games. He won a ring as a rookie when the Giants swept the Indians in the 1954 Fall Classic, although he didn’t make an appearance in the series. In April ’56, New York sold his contract to the Orioles. Gardner immediately stepped in as Baltimore’s starting second baseman.
He would have his greatest success as a player over the next four seasons. In 1957, Gardner led the American League in plate appearances (718) and doubles (36). While his overall .262/.325/.356 batting line was a little worse than league average, his durability and defensive reputation earned him some down-ballot MVP votes. Gardner continued to play regularly in Baltimore through 1959. The O’s flipped him across town to the Washington Senators in 1960. Gardner tallied 649 plate appearances with a .257/.313/.363 slash.
That wound up being the franchise’s final season in D.C. During the 1960-61 offseason, the organization uprooted to Minnesota and rebranded as the Twins. Gardner was briefly part of the original Twins team and was traded to the Yankees for lefty Danny McDevitt midseason. It proved a fruitful trade for him personally, as he finished the year in the Bronx and collected a second World Series title. He made one appearance in what would ultimately be a five-game triumph over the Reds.
Gardner closed his playing career in Boston after being traded yet again. He finished with a .237/.292/.327 line over parts of 10 MLB seasons. He hit 41 homers and 159 doubles in a bit under 3900 trips to the plate. Gardner played more than 8000 innings on defense, with the vast majority of that time coming at the keystone.
The end of his playing days didn’t mark the finale of his baseball career. Gardner transitioned to coaching with the Red Sox after his playing career concluded. He worked his way to an MLB staff with the Expos before rejoining the Twins as a coach in 1981.
Within a couple months, he was tabbed as manager to replace Johnny Goryl. Gardner held the managerial role in Minneapolis for parts of five seasons. The team only got to .500 once (an 81-81 record in 1984) and he was dismissed midway through the ’85 campaign. He got one more managerial opportunity, leading the 1987 Royals to a 62-64 mark before being replaced by John Wathan. His teams finished with a 330-417 record (44.2% win percentage).
MLBTR sends our condolences to Gardner’s family, friends and loved ones.
