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Mariners Seeking Right-Handed, Veteran First Baseman

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It’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Mariners, who have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have been linked to trade candidates like Cody Bellinger, Alec Bohm, and Nico Hoerner, and are reportedly listening to offers for Luis Castillo, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto came away from the Winter Meetings without pulling off any swaps either.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Mariners Showing Interest In Carlos Santana

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander already confirmed earlier in the offseason that the club has discussed a potential reunion with Justin Turner, and they’re also weighing a reunion with another former Mariner. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s have spoken to free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, who spent part of the 2022 season in Seattle. Jude cites multiple sources in adding that interest in bringing one of the two back to Seattle is strong enough that it’s considered a “likelihood” the Mariners will close a deal with one of them.

Santana, 39 in April, is fresh off his best year since 2019. He spent the 2024 campaign in Minnesota, serving as the Twins’ everyday first baseman and winning a Gold Glove for his defensive efforts there. He also slashed .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers in 594 plate appearances. That’s good for a solid 114 wRC+ (indicating he was 14% better than league-average at the plate), but setting aside a catastrophically poor first three weeks of the season, Santana hit .253/.342/.460 (129 wRC+, or 29%  better than average) after connecting on his first homer in late April.

That type of production would appeal to just about any club, particularly when coupled with excellent defense and a stellar clubhouse reputation. That latter factor is also a key part of the Mariners’ interest in both Turner and Santana, per Jude. At the end of the season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto voiced a desire to add some veteran voices to help lead a young clubhouse, Jude writes, specifically name-dropping both Turner and Santana as examples of players who’ve played key leadership roles during partial seasons in Seattle.

There are other reasons to think both players fit the Mariners’ roster. Both Turner (17.6%) and Santana (16.7%) struck out well below the 22.6% league average in 2024. The Mariners’ collective 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst in MLB. Whittling that number down should be a priority, and either veteran first baseman would help the club take strides toward that end.

Both Turner and Santana are also natural fits to pair up with Luke Raley at first base. Turner’s right-handed bat makes him a logical platoon partner at first, and he hits righties enough to take DH at-bats even when Raley draws a start in the field. Santana’s glove probably would push Raley to a primary DH/corner outfield role, but the veteran switch-hitter is much better from the right side of the plate. For a Mariners club that hit only .213/.300/.363 against southpaws last year, Santana’s .286/.356/.578 slash against lefties has to look especially appealing.

Either Santana or Turner should be available on a one-year deal. Santana will surely command a raise on last year’s modest $5.25MM salary, whereas Turner could be in line for a cut from last year’s $13MM rate of pay. Again, for a Mariners club that’s expected to increase payroll, but perhaps not by leaps and bounds over the roughly $145MM mark at which they finished the 2024 campaign, that makes either veteran a logical target. RosterResource currently projects the Mariners for a $150MM payroll, though that figure could change in the next 36 hours based on non-tenders and/or potential trades of non-tender candidates.

The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to add infield bats this offseason. Dipoto and Hollander have voiced confidence in an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Raley. They’re looking to add a bat capable of spending some time at first base and either a second baseman or third baseman — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore standing as candidates to platoon at the other spot. Turner or Santana would check one box and do so both affordably and while improving the club’s overall contact rate.

Mariners, Justin Turner Have Discussed Reunion

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The Mariners’ deadline acquisition of Justin Turner yielded positive results, and the two parties have already had discussions about a reunion for the 2025 season, general manager Justin Hollander tells Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. “We’ve already had discussions with JT and reiterated our interest that we expressed at the end of the season,” Seattle’s GM said.

Turner, who’ll turn 40 later this month, signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Blue Jays last winter and was flipped to the M’s in a July trade sending minor league outfielder RJ Schreck back to Toronto. He’d shaken off a dismal May slump to post strong numbers in the summer and continued to swing a good bat in the Emerald City down the stretch. Turner finished out the season with a .259/.354/.383 batting line, including a .263/.364/.403 slash (126 wRC+) in 48 games and 190 plate appearances with the Mariners.

That marked the 11th consecutive season in which Turner has provided offense at least 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His power numbers and once strong defensive ratings at the hot corner have both deteriorated, but Turner maintains quality bat-to-ball skills and keen plate discipline. He fanned in only 17.6% of his plate appearances — his second straight season with that exact rate — and walked at a 10.9% clip that represented his highest mark since the 2018 campaign (when he walked in a career-high 11% of his plate appearances).

Turner’s recent teams seem to think he can no longer handle third base on even a part-time basis. The Jays gave him just 32 innings there in 2024, while the Mariners played him for one lone frame. He spent only 57 innings at third with the Red Sox in 2023. At this point, he’s a pure first baseman or designated hitter, but he handled himself well in 326 frames at first base last year, drawing slightly positive marks from both Defensive Runs Saved (2) and Outs Above Average (1). He logged similar marks at first with Boston in ’23.

There’s no telling how Turner would hold up for a full-time slate of innings at first base, but it’s unlikely he’d be asked to do so. In all likelihood, he’d split his time between DH and first base wherever he signs, with far more time at the former than the latter (and perhaps an occasional emergency appearance at third base or second base).

The Mariners don’t have a set option at first base at the moment. They’re reportedly looking to add either a second baseman or third baseman — Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore can platoon at the other spot — as well as a solid bat that can handle some first base. Seattle does have lefty-swinging Luke Raley as an option at first, though he can also mix into the outfield corners on days when any of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez or Victor Robles need a break. Raley will likely see some time at designated hitter, too. Turner would make a natural platoon partner for Raley at first base, but he still hits righties well enough (.261/.354/.375) to slot in as a DH even when Raley starts in the infield.

Turner would also fit the Mariners’ ongoing desire to reduce their perennially poor team strikeout rate. Seattle’s 26.8% punchout rate was the highest in the majors this past season, as their efforts to curb their contact woes last winter clearly didn’t have the intended effect. He’d also likely fit into what figures to be a relatively tight budget. The Mariners’ payroll is expected to rise next season but not by leaps and bounds.

As it stands, RosterResource projects the Mariners for a $152MM payroll — a number that could drop depending on trades and the fate of some potential non-tender candidates in their arb class. That’s already a slight uptick from last year’s $144MM payroll. Turner should still command a solid deal but could be in line for a pay cut as he approaches his 40th birthday on the heels of his lowest home run total since becoming a full-time player (the shortened 2020 season excluded).

Mariners Prioritizing Infield Bats

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The Mariners are once again looking to upgrade their offense this winter after 2024’s underwhelming results at the plate squandered a terrific season from their pitching staff. Unsurprisingly, general manager Justin Hollander tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the M’s view second base as a priority this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the M’s would also like to add at first base. Ideally, Seattle would add one bat to help out at second or third base — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore a potential platoon at the other spot — and another at first base. Hollander downplayed the idea of adding to the outfield, telling FanSided’s Robert Murray that between Randy Arozarena in left, Julio Rodriguez in center, Victor Robles in right and Luke Raley as a corner outfield/first base/DH option, the Mariners feel they have potential for a “pretty high-end outfield.”

With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.

Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.

The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.

Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.

The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.

Justin Turner Plans To Continue Playing In 2025

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Mariners infielder Justin Turner’s 40th birthday is just around the corner this November, but that’s not stopping the veteran from planning to keep going next year. The pending free agent told reporters, including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, after Seattle’s win over the A’s last night that he wants to continue his playing career in 2025:

“100 percent. I still feel good, still feel like I have a lot to contribute.”  Turner said, as relayed by Kramer. “And I absolutely love spending time around these guys and the conversations and questions and helping guys.”

Even as he enters his 40s, it’s not necessarily a shock that Turner would plan to continue playing. After all, the veteran remains quite productive on the field. In 138 games split between Toronto and Seattle this year, the veteran has slashed .258/.353/.380 with a wRC+ of 115. While Turner’s 11 home runs and .122 isolated slugging percentage are both the lowest he’s posted in a full season since becoming a regular with the Dodgers back in 2015, his overall production remains exactly in line with what he produced for the Red Sox last year and not far off from the 123 wRC+ he posted in his final year as a Dodger.

Turner has largely been restricted to first base an DH since departing Los Angeles, with just six total appearances at the hot corner this year after logging 17 appearances between second and third base with the Red Sox last year. That dwindling versatility will surely restrict his market this winter, but there should still be plenty of suitors for Turner even in a strictly 1B/DH role. After all, just nine teams got a 115 wRC+ or higher out of first base this year, while 11 clubs matched or exceeded that figure at DH. Only the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Diamondbacks got better numbers than Turner provided out of both positions this year, and Arizona figures to lose both Christian Walker and Joc Pederson to free agency this winter.

Of course, it’s unlikely that Turner would really garner interest from every club he would be an on-paper upgrade for, but it’s still easy to imagine him as a fit for a number of teams. The Astros could benefit from a right-handed complement to Jon Singleton at first base and someone capable of plugging in at DH on days where Yordan Alvarez plays the outfield, for one example. Meanwhile, the Royals, Nationals, Tigers, and Pirates are all young up-and-coming teams who not only got below average production from either first base or DH this year but could also benefit from adding a well-respected veteran like Turner as a mentor figure for young hitters.

Turner has also signed one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, which could make him a particularly attractive candidate for a team like the Tigers that has a possible regular in Spencer Torkelson but may not want to rely on the 25-year-old finally taking a long-anticipated step forward after making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 this year. That flexibility could also benefit a team like the Yankees that has a potential heir to first base in Ben Rice at Triple-A but is unlikely to fully commit to a youngster with just 49 big league games under his belt.

A return to Seattle also can’t be ruled out. As Kramer noted last night, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated to reporters yesterday that the club’s payroll is likely to increase this winter. While Dipoto cautioned that much of that increase figures to be accounted for with the increasing arbitration costs of a large class of key players like Randy Arozarena, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Cal Raleigh, it’s not hard to imagine the club being able to fit a one-year deal for Turner into their budget if they decide they’d prefer to use him in the first base/DH mix alongside Luke Raley rather than rely on youngster Tyler Locklear.

MLBTR Podcast: Fallout From The Trade Deadline And Mike Trout Injured Again

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mariners Acquire Justin Turner

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The Mariners have acquired Justin Turner and cash considerations from the Blue Jays, per announcements from both clubs, with outfield prospect RJ Schreck going to the Blue Jays in return. Turner was playing for the Jays at the time the trade was reported but was removed from the game.

Turner has remarkably continued to be an above-average hitter as he approaches his 40th birthday, which is in November, though he has unsurprisingly tailed off a bit from his peak. With the Dodgers from 2014 to 2022, Turner hit .296/.375/.490 for a wRC+ of 137. He signed with the Red Sox last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a 114 wRC+, a noticeable drop-off from his work in Los Angeles but still 14% above average.

He signed with the Jays coming into 2024, a one-year deal with a $13MM guarantee plus bonuses based on plate appearances. His offense has taken another small dip but is still decent. He is drawing walks at an 11.2% clip this year while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.2% rate. His .253/.348/.370 batting line translates to a 109 wRC+.

The Mariners are 56-51 and battling the Astros and Rangers in the American League West. Their pitching has been great this year but the offense has been a disappointment. Collectively, they are hitting .218/.300/.368 for a wRC+ of 95, which places them in the bottom third of the league. Their 27.7% strikeout rate is easily the worst in the majors. On top of those season-long struggles, they recently lost Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to the injured list.

The club has been actively trying to reconfigure the offense in recent days, acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays and now Turner from the Jays. Given the club’s punch-out problem, it’s perhaps not a coincidence that Turner has always been tough to strike out. He has a 15.4% strikeout rate in his career and has never been higher than 17.6% in a full season. For context, the major league average is 22.3% this year.

Turner has played all around the infield in his career but the expectations of his glovework have naturally diminished as he has pushed further into his late 30s. He has dabbled at second base in recent seasons but the Jays haven’t put him there this year. He’s still made some appearances at third base this season but only five starts, with his last regular playing time there coming in 2022. He only has 11 starts at first base this year but that might just be because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is there most days, as Turner got into 41 games there for the Sox last season. Divish relays on X that Seattle manager Scott Servais said Turner will likely play first in Seattle more than he did in Toronto.

The Mariners recently traded Ty France to the Reds, opening up their first base spot. They’ve been using Tyler Locklear and Jason Vosler there in recent days, but now Turner could jump into that mix. The club had initially planned for Mitch Garver to be something close to an everyday DH this year but his underwhelming season has nudged him into more of a traditional backup catcher role. That means there could also be DH at-bats to be shared between Turner, Vosler and Locklear.

The Jays have been in sell mode for a while, having already flipped Yimi García, Nate Pearson and Danny Jansen in recent days. Now they have flipped Turner for Schreck, a 24-year-old who the M’s selected in the ninth-round of last year’s draft. He started this year in High-A and performed very well at the plate. In his 344 plate appearances, he drew walks at a 16.6% rate while only striking out 13.7% of the time. He also hit 12 home runs, leading to a slash of .261/.401/.464 and a 148 wRC+. On top of that, he added seven steals while playing all three outfield slots.

He then got bumped to Double-A and has a brutal slash of .143/.294/.250 there, but in a tiny sample of eight games with a .190 batting average on balls in play that is surely not sustainable. The Jays will perhaps bring him over to their own Double-A club in the coming days and hope for better help from the baseball gods.

Beyond the prospect, the Jays are likely happy to unload some of of Turner’s contract. There’s about $4.3MM left to be paid out and some part of that amount will be subtracted from the competitive balance tax calculation. The Jays are reportedly paying down $2MM in the deal.

With the trades of Turner, Jansen, García and Pearson, the Jays have made significant progress towards ducking under the tax line this year. RosterResource estimates that they are currently just under $242MM, putting them less than $5MM away from the $237MM base threshold, though the cash going to Seattle in the Turner trade should alter that calculus.

Between now and tomorrow’s deadline, they could still move rentals Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards. They could also consider deals for guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Chad Green or Chris Bassitt, who are each making notable salaries through 2025. If they manage to reset their CBT status this year, it would mean they could pay the tax in 2025 as a “first-time” payor instead of a “third-time” payor while also having lower penalties for signing free agents that rejected qualifying offers. MLBTR explored Toronto’s CBT situation a couple of weeks ago.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that Turner was going to the Mariners. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times first relayed that a prospect was involved that it was Schreck (X link one and two). Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the cash considerations.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Quick Hits: Twins, Pohlad, Turner, Suter, Rockies, Marlins

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.
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