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Justin Turner

Cubs Sign Justin Turner

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The Cubs are bringing one of the game’s most experienced veteran hitters into the fold, announcing Thursday that they’ve signed Justin Turner to a one-year contract. Outfielder Alexander Canario has been designated for assignment (as was reported earlier today). Turner, a VaynerSports client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM with incentives also available. The guarantee breaks down as a $4MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2026. As for the incentives, Turner would get $125K for getting to 350, 375, 400, 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances. He’d get $250K for getting to 500, 525 and 550 plate appearances. There’s also $250K for 120 and 150 days on the active roster, as well as a $500K bonus every time he’s traded.

Despite his age, the now-40-year-old Turner remained a productive bat for the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2024. He hit 24 doubles and 11 home runs while continuing to make the most of his plate discipline and contact skills en route to a .737 OPS and 117 wRC+. The righty batter was particularly productive for Seattle in September, slashing .295/.396/.449 with a 143 wRC+. In other words, there is little reason to doubt that he can still be a valuable contributor to a team with postseason aspirations.

Turner has qualified for the batting title in each of the past four seasons, but he will take on more of a part-time role with the Cubs. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that Turner is expected to fill a backup role at first and third base. Chicago reportedly considered many options for such a job but ultimately settled on Turner after missing out on star third baseman Alex Bregman (per Rogers). The Cubs were a finalist to sign Bregman before he joined the Red Sox instead. The team also reportedly considered trading for Nolan Arenado, although it comes as no surprise that the Cardinals weren’t interested in trading Arenado to a division rival (per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney).

Primarily a third baseman in his younger days, Turner has only played a handful of games at the hot corner in each of the past two seasons. Instead, he has transitioned to a first base/DH role. Both of those jobs are already spoken for in Chicago, with promising sophomore Michael Busch at first base and Seiya Suzuki, arguably the team’s second-best hitter after Kyle Tucker, penciled in at DH. Still, the Cubs plan to use Turner primarily at those two spots, per Mooney; Turner won’t be lining up at third base with any regularity.

Turner could potentially platoon with Busch at first if the lefty batter struggles against same-handed pitching. On top of that, Turner will offer the club insurance in the case of an injury to Busch, Suzuki, or a corner outfielder; if Tucker or Ian Happ gets hurt, Suzuki could play the outfield with Turner taking over as the primary DH. Even if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could give Happ or Tucker the occasional breather and plug Turner in at designated hitter on such days.

With regard to third base, top prospect Matt Shaw seems to be the most likely choice to win the job out of camp, but the 23-year-old has yet to play a game at the big league level. Thus, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made it clear that Shaw is not yet guaranteed the starting job. However, the Cubs don’t exactly have a ton of other options. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan both have MLB experience at third, but neither is a starting-caliber player at the position. Meanwhile, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is himself an unknown quantity; he has not played a game above Double-A. Turner isn’t an everyday solution, but he’ll at least improve the team’s depth at third while providing a quality bat to deepen the team’s offense.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was first to report that the Cubs and Turner were finalizing a one-year, $6MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed there was an agreement in place and reported the performance bonuses, as well as the full breakdown.

Cubs Designate Alexander Canario For Assignment

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The Cubs are designating outfielder Alexander Canario for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Canario is out of minor league options and would’ve either needed to break camp with the team or else be designated for assignment (and subsequently waived or traded) at the end of spring training.

Canario, 25 in May, came to the Cubs alongside righty Caleb Kilian in the 2021 deadline swap that sent Kris Bryant to San Francisco. At the time, Canario was considered among the Giants’ ten or so top prospects due in large part to his plus raw power. Just 21 years old and in Low-A at the time of the trade, he’d undergone shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear the year prior. His 2021 season produced sub-par results, but that’s not a surprise for a player trying to get back into the swing of things following a canceled 2020 campaign and a notable surgery.

Subsequent seasons have yielded better results at the plate but ongoing questions about Canario’s hit tool, approach at the plate and ability to stay on the field. He crushed 37 home runs while batting .252/.343/.556 across three minor league levels in 2022. He was limited to 59 games in 2023 — including a brief six-game MLB debut — when an ankle injury and further shoulder troubles slowed him. Canario popped 18 homers in 64 Triple-A games in 2024 and logged a .280/.357/.443 line in 28 big league plate appearances.

Even beyond the durability concerns, Canario’s performance in the upper minors gives reason for pause. His surface-level stats, particularly his power output, look quite appealing. He hit .248/.329/.552 with 24 homers in just 350 Double-A plate appearances and .252/.345/.521 with 32 homers in only 528 Triple-A plate appearances. However, Canario fanned at a 26% clip in Double-A and a 28.9% clip in Triple-A.

Canario’s strikeout troubles have actually risen even as his time in Triple-A has progressed. He fanned at a 25% rate in his first 20 games there back in 2022 but saw that number rise to 28% in 36 games in 2023 and a huge 30.4% in 64 games last year. He’s only taken 45 MLB plate appearances but has punched out in 42.2% of them (19 times). The 63.5% contact rate Canario posted in Triple-A last year would’ve ranked dead-last among qualified big league hitters by a margin of more than two percentage points. In his 45 MLB plate appearances, he’s made contact on only 59.8% of his swings.

Defensively, Canario is limited to a corner and is not regarded as a plus defender — despite having a plus arm. He’s a slightly below-average runner who lacks the range for center field. That profile, paired with his plus raw power and notable platoon splits, has prompted scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and other outlets to project him on the short side of a right field platoon in the majors.

At this point, Canario had presumably fallen to no better than sixth or seventh on the Cubs’ outfield depth chart. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker form the starting trio, with Seiya Suzuki slotted for regular DH work and occasional corner duties. Kevin Alcantara is on the cusp of MLB readiness and is younger with better defense, multiple minor league options remaining and a vastly higher ceiling overall. Fellow top prospect Owen Caissie is also on the 40-man roster and had surely leapfrogged Canario as well.

Given his huge raw power, Canario could very well end up with another club by way of a small trade or waiver claim. But Canario’s prodigious swing-and-miss rates, broad-reaching susceptibility to breaking pitches and minimal defensive upside all combine to make him less appealing to big league clubs than some might expect when looking at his surface-level numbers. Former Cardinals outfield prospect Moises Gomez found himself in a similar spot last spring and went unclaimed on waivers.

Canario’s DFA window will last for one week, but if the Cubs are to trade him, they’ll need to do so within five days. Outright waivers are a 48-hour process, so if Canario isn’t traded within five days’ time, he’ll head to the waiver wire.

Cubs Among Teams With Interest In Justin Turner

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The Cubs are considering Justin Turner as an alternative to Alex Bregman, write Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Turner will be limited to one year as he enters his age-40 season. Bregman has reportedly continued to seek a deal of six-plus years, while the Cubs seem to prefer a much shorter term.

Turner remains a quality offensive player. He combined for a .259/.354/.383 slash across 539 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and Mariners last season. His production improved after a deadline trade to Seattle, no small feat for a hitter adapting to the game’s most pitcher-friendly home park. It was the 11th consecutive season in which Turner has been an above-average hitter. While he doesn’t have the same power that he did during his peak years with the Dodgers, he’s still a strong on-base presence with very good strike zone discipline.

Chicago isn’t the lone team with interest in both Bregman and Turner. Mooney and Rosenthal write that the Tigers and Red Sox have also shown some level of interest in Turner. That comprises three of what appears to be the top four suitors — alongside the incumbent Astros — on Bregman. Houston has not been linked to Turner and wouldn’t make sense as a landing spot with Yordan Alvarez ticketed for DH work.

The Cubs could be a tough roster fit in their own right. Seiya Suzuki will get the majority of at-bats at designated hitter. He’s capable of playing right field but squeezed out of a starting outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Turner would be a target as a role-playing corner infield bat. The Cubs have lefty-swinging Michael Busch lined up for the bulk of the first base work. They don’t have any kind of established third baseman after including Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade. Unless they make a late-offseason strike for Bregman, they’d very likely turn the hot corner to top prospect Matt Shaw.

Turner is not an everyday third baseman at this point of his career. He started four games there last season after logging seven starts in 2023. He hasn’t played more than half a season at the position since 2021. Turner has played more frequently at first base, where he started 40 games last year. He could take some at-bats from Busch against lefty pitching, though Busch had a respectable showing (.258/.330/.382 in 100 plate appearances) in unfavorable platoon situations as a rookie.

The Tigers and Red Sox have each been seeking a right-handed bat. Boston has limited flexibility to accommodate another player at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas as their corner infield tandem. Masataka Yoshida is lined up for the bulk of the DH work going into the third season of his five-year deal. Boston would probably use Bregman at second base if they landed him. The Sox gave Turner himself four starts at the keystone when he played in Boston in 2023. He wouldn’t play second regularly but could rotate through the position alongside Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton if top prospect Kristian Campbell opens the season in Triple-A.

Detroit signed Gleyber Torres to play second base. That kicked Colt Keith over to first base, squeezing righty-hitting Spencer Torkelson out of the starting lineup. Turner’s right-handed bat could play well in a lefty-heavy corner infield/DH mix. Keith and Jace Jung, the projected starter at third base if they don’t sign Bregman, each hit from the left side. Kerry Carpenter, who’ll split his time between right field and DH, is a lefty hitter who mashes when he holds the platoon advantage.

Seattle showed interest in a Turner reunion early in the offseason. That’s less likely now that they’ve added righty-hitting Donovan Solano on a $3.5MM free agent deal to platoon with Luke Raley at first base. Mooney and Rosenthal report that the Reds have also spoken with Turner this offseason, though it’s not clear if that interest is ongoing. Cincinnati acquired Gavin Lux to deepen the infield and could give righty hitters Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer a decent amount of run at first base.

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Mariners Seeking Right-Handed, Veteran First Baseman

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It’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Mariners, who have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have been linked to trade candidates like Cody Bellinger, Alec Bohm, and Nico Hoerner, and are reportedly listening to offers for Luis Castillo, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto came away from the Winter Meetings without pulling off any swaps either.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Mariners Showing Interest In Carlos Santana

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander already confirmed earlier in the offseason that the club has discussed a potential reunion with Justin Turner, and they’re also weighing a reunion with another former Mariner. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s have spoken to free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, who spent part of the 2022 season in Seattle. Jude cites multiple sources in adding that interest in bringing one of the two back to Seattle is strong enough that it’s considered a “likelihood” the Mariners will close a deal with one of them.

Santana, 39 in April, is fresh off his best year since 2019. He spent the 2024 campaign in Minnesota, serving as the Twins’ everyday first baseman and winning a Gold Glove for his defensive efforts there. He also slashed .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers in 594 plate appearances. That’s good for a solid 114 wRC+ (indicating he was 14% better than league-average at the plate), but setting aside a catastrophically poor first three weeks of the season, Santana hit .253/.342/.460 (129 wRC+, or 29%  better than average) after connecting on his first homer in late April.

That type of production would appeal to just about any club, particularly when coupled with excellent defense and a stellar clubhouse reputation. That latter factor is also a key part of the Mariners’ interest in both Turner and Santana, per Jude. At the end of the season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto voiced a desire to add some veteran voices to help lead a young clubhouse, Jude writes, specifically name-dropping both Turner and Santana as examples of players who’ve played key leadership roles during partial seasons in Seattle.

There are other reasons to think both players fit the Mariners’ roster. Both Turner (17.6%) and Santana (16.7%) struck out well below the 22.6% league average in 2024. The Mariners’ collective 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst in MLB. Whittling that number down should be a priority, and either veteran first baseman would help the club take strides toward that end.

Both Turner and Santana are also natural fits to pair up with Luke Raley at first base. Turner’s right-handed bat makes him a logical platoon partner at first, and he hits righties enough to take DH at-bats even when Raley draws a start in the field. Santana’s glove probably would push Raley to a primary DH/corner outfield role, but the veteran switch-hitter is much better from the right side of the plate. For a Mariners club that hit only .213/.300/.363 against southpaws last year, Santana’s .286/.356/.578 slash against lefties has to look especially appealing.

Either Santana or Turner should be available on a one-year deal. Santana will surely command a raise on last year’s modest $5.25MM salary, whereas Turner could be in line for a cut from last year’s $13MM rate of pay. Again, for a Mariners club that’s expected to increase payroll, but perhaps not by leaps and bounds over the roughly $145MM mark at which they finished the 2024 campaign, that makes either veteran a logical target. RosterResource currently projects the Mariners for a $150MM payroll, though that figure could change in the next 36 hours based on non-tenders and/or potential trades of non-tender candidates.

The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to add infield bats this offseason. Dipoto and Hollander have voiced confidence in an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Raley. They’re looking to add a bat capable of spending some time at first base and either a second baseman or third baseman — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore standing as candidates to platoon at the other spot. Turner or Santana would check one box and do so both affordably and while improving the club’s overall contact rate.

Mariners, Justin Turner Have Discussed Reunion

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The Mariners’ deadline acquisition of Justin Turner yielded positive results, and the two parties have already had discussions about a reunion for the 2025 season, general manager Justin Hollander tells Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. “We’ve already had discussions with JT and reiterated our interest that we expressed at the end of the season,” Seattle’s GM said.

Turner, who’ll turn 40 later this month, signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Blue Jays last winter and was flipped to the M’s in a July trade sending minor league outfielder RJ Schreck back to Toronto. He’d shaken off a dismal May slump to post strong numbers in the summer and continued to swing a good bat in the Emerald City down the stretch. Turner finished out the season with a .259/.354/.383 batting line, including a .263/.364/.403 slash (126 wRC+) in 48 games and 190 plate appearances with the Mariners.

That marked the 11th consecutive season in which Turner has provided offense at least 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His power numbers and once strong defensive ratings at the hot corner have both deteriorated, but Turner maintains quality bat-to-ball skills and keen plate discipline. He fanned in only 17.6% of his plate appearances — his second straight season with that exact rate — and walked at a 10.9% clip that represented his highest mark since the 2018 campaign (when he walked in a career-high 11% of his plate appearances).

Turner’s recent teams seem to think he can no longer handle third base on even a part-time basis. The Jays gave him just 32 innings there in 2024, while the Mariners played him for one lone frame. He spent only 57 innings at third with the Red Sox in 2023. At this point, he’s a pure first baseman or designated hitter, but he handled himself well in 326 frames at first base last year, drawing slightly positive marks from both Defensive Runs Saved (2) and Outs Above Average (1). He logged similar marks at first with Boston in ’23.

There’s no telling how Turner would hold up for a full-time slate of innings at first base, but it’s unlikely he’d be asked to do so. In all likelihood, he’d split his time between DH and first base wherever he signs, with far more time at the former than the latter (and perhaps an occasional emergency appearance at third base or second base).

The Mariners don’t have a set option at first base at the moment. They’re reportedly looking to add either a second baseman or third baseman — Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore can platoon at the other spot — as well as a solid bat that can handle some first base. Seattle does have lefty-swinging Luke Raley as an option at first, though he can also mix into the outfield corners on days when any of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez or Victor Robles need a break. Raley will likely see some time at designated hitter, too. Turner would make a natural platoon partner for Raley at first base, but he still hits righties well enough (.261/.354/.375) to slot in as a DH even when Raley starts in the infield.

Turner would also fit the Mariners’ ongoing desire to reduce their perennially poor team strikeout rate. Seattle’s 26.8% punchout rate was the highest in the majors this past season, as their efforts to curb their contact woes last winter clearly didn’t have the intended effect. He’d also likely fit into what figures to be a relatively tight budget. The Mariners’ payroll is expected to rise next season but not by leaps and bounds.

As it stands, RosterResource projects the Mariners for a $152MM payroll — a number that could drop depending on trades and the fate of some potential non-tender candidates in their arb class. That’s already a slight uptick from last year’s $144MM payroll. Turner should still command a solid deal but could be in line for a pay cut as he approaches his 40th birthday on the heels of his lowest home run total since becoming a full-time player (the shortened 2020 season excluded).

Mariners Prioritizing Infield Bats

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The Mariners are once again looking to upgrade their offense this winter after 2024’s underwhelming results at the plate squandered a terrific season from their pitching staff. Unsurprisingly, general manager Justin Hollander tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the M’s view second base as a priority this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the M’s would also like to add at first base. Ideally, Seattle would add one bat to help out at second or third base — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore a potential platoon at the other spot — and another at first base. Hollander downplayed the idea of adding to the outfield, telling FanSided’s Robert Murray that between Randy Arozarena in left, Julio Rodriguez in center, Victor Robles in right and Luke Raley as a corner outfield/first base/DH option, the Mariners feel they have potential for a “pretty high-end outfield.”

With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.

Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.

The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.

Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.

The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.

Justin Turner Plans To Continue Playing In 2025

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Mariners infielder Justin Turner’s 40th birthday is just around the corner this November, but that’s not stopping the veteran from planning to keep going next year. The pending free agent told reporters, including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, after Seattle’s win over the A’s last night that he wants to continue his playing career in 2025:

“100 percent. I still feel good, still feel like I have a lot to contribute.”  Turner said, as relayed by Kramer. “And I absolutely love spending time around these guys and the conversations and questions and helping guys.”

Even as he enters his 40s, it’s not necessarily a shock that Turner would plan to continue playing. After all, the veteran remains quite productive on the field. In 138 games split between Toronto and Seattle this year, the veteran has slashed .258/.353/.380 with a wRC+ of 115. While Turner’s 11 home runs and .122 isolated slugging percentage are both the lowest he’s posted in a full season since becoming a regular with the Dodgers back in 2015, his overall production remains exactly in line with what he produced for the Red Sox last year and not far off from the 123 wRC+ he posted in his final year as a Dodger.

Turner has largely been restricted to first base an DH since departing Los Angeles, with just six total appearances at the hot corner this year after logging 17 appearances between second and third base with the Red Sox last year. That dwindling versatility will surely restrict his market this winter, but there should still be plenty of suitors for Turner even in a strictly 1B/DH role. After all, just nine teams got a 115 wRC+ or higher out of first base this year, while 11 clubs matched or exceeded that figure at DH. Only the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Diamondbacks got better numbers than Turner provided out of both positions this year, and Arizona figures to lose both Christian Walker and Joc Pederson to free agency this winter.

Of course, it’s unlikely that Turner would really garner interest from every club he would be an on-paper upgrade for, but it’s still easy to imagine him as a fit for a number of teams. The Astros could benefit from a right-handed complement to Jon Singleton at first base and someone capable of plugging in at DH on days where Yordan Alvarez plays the outfield, for one example. Meanwhile, the Royals, Nationals, Tigers, and Pirates are all young up-and-coming teams who not only got below average production from either first base or DH this year but could also benefit from adding a well-respected veteran like Turner as a mentor figure for young hitters.

Turner has also signed one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, which could make him a particularly attractive candidate for a team like the Tigers that has a possible regular in Spencer Torkelson but may not want to rely on the 25-year-old finally taking a long-anticipated step forward after making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 this year. That flexibility could also benefit a team like the Yankees that has a potential heir to first base in Ben Rice at Triple-A but is unlikely to fully commit to a youngster with just 49 big league games under his belt.

A return to Seattle also can’t be ruled out. As Kramer noted last night, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated to reporters yesterday that the club’s payroll is likely to increase this winter. While Dipoto cautioned that much of that increase figures to be accounted for with the increasing arbitration costs of a large class of key players like Randy Arozarena, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Cal Raleigh, it’s not hard to imagine the club being able to fit a one-year deal for Turner into their budget if they decide they’d prefer to use him in the first base/DH mix alongside Luke Raley rather than rely on youngster Tyler Locklear.

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