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Jarred Kelenic

Where Can The Braves Go For Outfield Help?

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In a season with a number of high-profile injuries, there has been no bigger loss than Ronald Acuña Jr. The defending NL MVP tore the ACL in his left knee over the weekend. It's the second time in the last four years that an ACL tear (in separate knees) has ended his season a few months early.

There's obviously no way of replacing Acuña with anyone close to the same caliber of player. The Braves will likely need to add to the corner outfield in some form over the next two months, though. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted yesterday that the Acuña injury will push each of Adam Duvall and Jarred Kelenic into an everyday role. That's not an ideal position for a team trying to hang with the Phillies at the top of the NL East.

Atlanta bought low on Kelenic over the winter. The former top prospect still hasn't shown any sign of a legitimate breakout. He has a roughly average .258/.305/.383 batting line over 128 plate appearances. Kelenic's 31.3% strikeout rate is still much too high, and he's walking less often (6.3% of the time) than he did during his final season in Seattle. He can hit the ball hard, but he's still swinging and missing far too frequently. The Braves have also completely shielded him from left-handed pitching. That'll no longer be the case if he's playing everyday, and he's a .188/.252/.307 hitter in 301 career plate appearances against southpaws.

Duvall returned to Atlanta on a $3MM free agent deal midway through Spring Training. His profile is well-established at this point. He hits for power and plays solid defense in the corner outfield. That'll come with low on-base marks and underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers. Duvall has dramatically cut his swing-and-miss in 99 plate appearances this year, but that's largely attributable to the Braves leveraging him heavily against left-handed pitching as Kelenic's platoon partner. Duvall has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 39 plate appearances against righties. At age 35, it seems fair to presume he hasn't suddenly found a new level of plate discipline.

Let's run through a few of the likelier possible trade targets for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office.

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Braves Not Planning To Platoon Jarred Kelenic

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The Braves traded 2022 second-rounder Cole Phillips and ate the majority of Marco Gonzales’ contract and the remainder of Evan White’s contract in order to acquire Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. They took on just shy of $26MM in salary and luxury tax obligations in order to facilitate the deal. It was a fairly big bet on a once-elite prospect whose bat hasn’t yet come around at the big league level.

A good portion of Kelenic’s struggles in the big leagues thus far have come against left-handed pitching — he’s hit just .189/.255/.311 against fellow southpaws — but Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Thursday that his team is leaning toward everyday at-bats for Kelenic rather than a platoon role (X link via The Athletic’s David O’Brien).

The remainder of the Braves’ lineup is a powerhouse, so the team can afford to give Kelenic some leash and see if regular at-bats and a change of scenery can help to unlock some of the potential that made him a top-10 draft pick and one of the sport’s top five overall prospects prior to his debut. Kelenic touts a .304/.372/.567 slash in 580 Triple-A plate appearances but is a career .204/.283/.373 hitter in 974 MLB plate appearances.

Kelenic got out to a big start in 2023, hitting .297/.350/.564 with 10 homers in his first 180 plate appearances. He was benefiting from a .375 average on balls in play and striking out at a lofty 29% clip, but it was nonetheless an encouraging showing. He fell into a prolonged slump soon after, however, hitting .205/.291/.311 in a near-identical sample over his next 182 trips to the plate. Frustration boiled over, and Kelenic suffered a broken foot upon kicking a water cooler after striking out in a key ninth-inning at-bat against Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran. He landed on the injured list, returned in mid-September and hit .261/.370/.283 in his final 54 plate appearances of the season (and of his Mariners tenure).

The Braves are light on platoon options for Kelenic anyhow, although designated hitter Marcell Ozuna or non-roster invitee Jordan Luplow could conceivably have filled such a role. Atlanta only played Ozuna in left field for two games last year, however. He spent his other 141 games at designated hitter. It seems clear they prefer to avoid using him in the outfield. Luplow could still make the club as a pure bench bat, but the team’s decision to give Kelenic a full-time look in left field is a significant roadblock to what previously appeared to be his likeliest role. An everyday role for Kelenic also lessens the chances of the Braves adding a veteran outfielder in free agency or via trade, though there haven’t been any recent rumors suggesting they were pursuing that type of move anyhow.

Atlanta’s bench has at least two spots all but spoken for. Travis d’Arnaud will once again be a backup catcher and occasional designated hitter. Luis Guillorme was signed to a low-cost one-year deal after being non-tendered by the Mets. He’s out of minor league options and thus likely to hold a utility role.

That move clouded the outlook for infielder David Fletcher, who isn’t on the 40-man roster after being outrighted over the offseason. At the time, Fletcher’s outright looked like a procedural move. The Braves knew his contract would go unclaimed and that he wouldn’t reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, as doing so would’ve required forfeiting the $14MM remaining on his deal. Fletcher is just four days shy of the five years of MLB service needed to reject an outright and retain his full salary. It looked as though that technicality allowed the team to temporarily free up his roster spot, but in Guillorme the Braves acquired a versatile infielder with a similar skill set. Fletcher could still be added back to the roster in a utility role, but the presence of Guillorme makes that far less certain.

O’Brien further adds that one of the ostensibly “open” bench spots will go to someone who can offer speed. That bodes well for 28-year-old outfielder Forrest Wall, who swiped 57 bags in 65 tries (87.7%) between Triple-A and the big leagues last season. Wall appeared in 15 games with the Braves but tallied only 15 plate appearances, typically entering as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. He swiped another 52 bases with the Mariners’ Triple-A club the prior season. Wall is already on the Braves’ 40-man roster.

MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Dodgers miss on Ohtani, what’s the next logical move? Will the Dodgers be interested in Jung Hoo Lee? (23:40)
  • Contracts are getting completely out of hand. Now Ohtani might pull in a $600 million dollar deal this week. Will the runaway inflation of MLB contracts sink the sport soon? It seems like fans will take the brunt of the costs and eventually turn away. (28:00)
  • Does anyone from MLB trade rumors attend the winter meetings? (32:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

AL West Notes: Oakland, Ohtani, Mariners

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The Athletics are all but certain to move out of Oakland in favor of Las Vegas upon their lease’s expiration at the end of the 2024 campaign. That being said, the club’s new stadium in Las Vegas isn’t expected to be ready until 2028 at the earliest, creating questions regarding where the A’s will play in the interim. Some possible solutions that have been discussed would see the A’s look to split time in Oracle Park with the Giants or Las Vegas Ballpark with the Aviators, the organization’s Triple-A affiliate.

Perhaps the most frequently discussed option at the club’s disposal would be simply remaining in the Coliseum on an extended lease while the club’s new ballpark in Las Vegas is built, but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle indicates that Oakland’s mayor, Sheng Thao, would not extend the club’s lease in Oakland easily. Ostler relays that Thao’s chief of staff Leigh Hanson indicated the city’s demands could include the A’s leaving the “Athletics” name in Oakland when they depart for Vegas or a guarantee of a new team when MLB eventually expands beyond 30 teams.

It seems unlikely that the A’s would be willing to give up the “Athletics” name nor that MLB would offer Oakland an expansion team in exchange for three additional years on the club’s lease in Oakland. Given those hefty demands, it seems that the A’s will have to look elsewhere as they search for an interim home while their future ballpark in Las Vegas is built. The A’s have officially filed with MLB for relocation, with their interim home ballpark remaining as perhaps the single biggest question mark regarding the relocation plan. Any interim home ballpark would have to receive the approval of not only the league, but also the MLBPA.

More from around the AL West…

  • Angels GM Perry Minasian indicated today to reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that the club suggested two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani undergo imaging on his throwing arm earlier this month when he left a start on August 3 thanks to cramping in his finger. Ohtani and his team declined to proceed with the MRI, instead opting to make his scheduled start on August 9. Of course, Ohtani wound up being diagnosed with a UCL tear earlier this week, an injury that has ended his season as a pitcher. Ohtani has continued to his since the injury was revealed, and has done so at his usual MVP-caliber level: in four games since, Ohtani has recorded three doubles, a triple, and a home run on five hits and six walks in sixteen trips to the plate while stealing two bases. Minasian declined to provide an update on Ohtani’s injury, indicating that Ohtani and his team would determine his course of action and timeline as they gathered additional opinions on his injury.
  • The Mariners have been one of the hottest teams in baseball this month, with an 18-5 since the start of August that’s pushed them to the top of the AL West standings. They’ve done all that without outfield Jarred Kelenic, who has been on the injured list with a fractured foot since kicking a water cooler last month. The 23-year-old youngster is recovering well from the incident with GM Justin Hollander indicating that Kelenic will begin a rehab assignment next week, as noted by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. While Hollander indicated that Kelenic’s rehab could be a lengthy one, he expressed confidence that the young outfielder will return at full strength before the end of the season. That’s great news for Seattle, which has primarily relied on Dominic Canzone (94 wRC+) in the weeks since Kelenic’s injury.
  • Sticking with the Mariners, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that catcher Tom Murphy is expected to be cleared for an increase in baseball activities and intensity this week. Murphy has been on the injured list with a thumb sprain for the past two weeks. Prior to his injury, Murphy was the club’s primary backup to Cal Raleigh behind the plate and was having a superlative season in that role, slashing .290/.335/.538 with a wRC+ of 140 in 159 trips to the plate. With Murphy on the shelf, Seattle has relied on Brian O’Keefe as Raleigh’s backup.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Rendon, Neto, Alvarez

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The Mariners placed outfielder AJ Pollock on the 10-day IL earlier today, with outfielder Taylor Trammell taking his place on the active roster. While Pollock has struggled to a wRC+ of just 51 in 138 plate appearances with Seattle this season, Pollock’s injury further exacerbates an outfield situation that has quickly become a problem for the club. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez are both locked into starting spots in center and right field, respectively, but the absences of Pollock and Jarred Kelenic leave the club scrambling for options to fill out the rest of the club’s outfield mix. First baseman Mike Ford has taken over DH duties on a nearly full-time basis over the past month, while left field is set to be filled by a mix of depth options like Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe.

To make matters worse for the Mariners, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relays that, according to manager Scott Servais, Kelenic isn’t expected back until early September. He’ll spend the next 4-6 weeks in a walking boot after kicking a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout. The incident left Kelenic with a fractured left foot. With so few options available to cover for Kelenic in left field, the Mariners seem poised to look into adding an outfielder ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The club has previously been connected to Mark Canha of the Mets, though Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger, and Lane Thomas are other outfielders who could potentially move prior to the deadline.

More from the AL West…

  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon recently underwent an MRI that revealed a deep bone bruise in his shin, as noted by Doug Padilla of the Orange County Register. Rendon has been out since the beginning of the month with a shin contusion, though the injury is more serious than initially believed. Manager Phil Nevin explained the situation to reporters (including Padilla), saying that “There’s some significant bleeding inside the bone. This is more significant than we actually thought… We’re going to have to calm him down for a little while.” Nevin didn’t offer a new timetable for return, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger indicates that Rendon will be shut down for at least two more weeks.
  • Sticking with the Angels, shortstop Zach Neto was scratched from today’s game against the Pirates due to lower back tightness, per Padilla. Andrew Velazquez replaced Neto in the lineup at shortstop today. Padilla noted that Neto was willing to play through the discomfort, but the Angels decided to act cautiously and rest him. Padilla adds that the club is considering sitting him again for tomorrow’s game in order to give him a three day period to rest in conjunction with Monday’s off-day, though Bollinger adds that the club is hoping the issue is minor enough he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow, per Nevin. The club’s first round pick in last year’s draft, Neto has impressed by not only advancing to the majors in his first professional season but providing solid production with a 110 wRC+ combined with strong defense at shortstop.
  • Slugger Yordan Alvarez appears to be nearing a return to the Astros, as he has begun a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land. Alvarez was expected to begin his rehab assignment last week, but did not appear in a game at Triple-A until this past Wednesday. He’s now appeared in three rehab games, and while it’s unclear when he’ll return to the big league club, his upcoming return is sure to boost the club’s lineup. While he’s been limited to just 57 games this season due to injuries, Alvarez has slashed an incredible .277/.388/.589 with a wRC+ of 167. With Alvarez on the shelf, Corey Julks has been the club’s primary DH in recent weeks.

Mariners Place Jarred Kelenic On 10-Day IL, Promote Cade Marlowe

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1:00pm: Mariners manager Scott Servais tells reporters that Kelenic’s injury occurred last night after he kicked a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout (Twitter link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times).

An emotional Kelenic met with reporters and expressed remorse (video link via Divish). “I let the emotions get the best of me,” said Kelenic. “I just feel terrible — especially for the guys. I just let them down, and I take full responsibility for it. It’s on me. It can’t happen.”

12:33pm: The Mariners announced that Kelenic has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a fracture in his left foot. A timeline for his return was not provided.

12:28pm: The Mariners are planning to recall outfield prospect Cade Marlowe prior to today’s game, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The 26-year-old will be making his MLB debut when he first takes the field. The team has not yet announced Marlowe’s promotion or a corresponding transaction, but Divish adds that Jarred Kelenic is wearing a walking boot pregame, so it seems likely there’s a pending trip to the injured list on the horizon.

Marlowe, a 20th-round pick in 2019, has elevated his stock from that humble draft status with consistently solid minor league showings — including a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Baseball America ranked him 16th among Mariners prospects heading into the season, noting that his speed, glove and power could make him at least a reserve outfielder in the Majors — despite questions about his hit tool.

Those concerns on his bat-to-ball skills were on display last year when he fanned in 38% of his 60 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s pared that back to a more tolerable 25.4% in 2023, but Marlowe’s .255/.332/.461 slash in 319 plate appearances also represents a step back from last year’s production (and checks in below average in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, per wRC+). He’s still popped 11 homers this season and gone 25-for-29 in stolen base attempts this season.

Marlowe is already on the 40-man roster, so the Mariners don’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard. With Kelenic sidelined, Marlowe will be in line for plenty of at-bats in left field. Like Kelenic, he’s a left-handed hitter.

Kelenic, 24, got out to a blistering start this season when he hit .308/.366/.615 in the season’s first month. He’s cooled off considerably since that time but still possesses a solid overall .252/.320/.429 batting line with 11 homers, 24 doubles, a pair of triples and a dozen stolen bases through 326 trips to the plate.

Outfield help already seemed like a potential area of focus for the Mariners in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline — they were linked to Mets outfielder Mark Canha just this morning — and the loss of Kelenic only figures to add to that. Offseason signee AJ Pollock has delivered just a .169/.222/.325 slash since signing a one-year deal, and trade acquisition Teoscar Hernandez has fallen shy of expectations with a .240/.294/.419 batting line in his first 395 plate appearances.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation

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The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.

Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.

Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).

Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.

Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.

That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.

It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.

Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.

The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.

There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.

Mariners Open To Adding Another Outfielder

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The Mariners have already taken steps to reshuffle their outfield in the offseason’s early going. They landed two-time Silver Slugger award winner Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays for high-leverage reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko, then shipped out former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel.

More changes could be on the horizon, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) the team was open to bringing in another outfielder. The Seattle baseball ops leader unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets but suggested the club was content to wait things out and identify the right fit.

“We do have more than one target,” Dipoto told reporters. “There are a handful of players that fit us that we feel good about especially as it pertains to outfielders. We feel like there’s still a market that is more robust. And if we’re just patient, we’re going to find the player that suits our roster the best.”

That doesn’t sound like a declaration the M’s are planning a run at top free agent Aaron Judge, and defending Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez reduces the urgency to go after center fielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mariners could theoretically pursue Nimmo with an eye towards pushing him to the corner opposite Hernández, but there are plenty of other teams with direct needs in center field. With the bidding for the former Met likely to push over nine figures (and cost the signing team a draft choice), the next tier down seems more plausible for Dipoto and his staff.

Among that group is Mitch Haniger, who’s a free agent after six seasons in Seattle. The M’s opted not to tag with him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, clearly unwilling to commit him a salary approaching $20MM for next year. A multi-year deal at a lower annual term still seems a possibility, and general manager Justin Hollander told Divish and others the club remains in contact with Haniger’s representatives at Apex Baseball.

Other free agent possibilities include Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger and Washington native Michael Conforto, who’s looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter after a season lost to shoulder surgery. Bellinger and Conforto figure to land shorter-term, bounceback deals while Benintendi and Profar are virtually certain to land multi-year commitments. Dipoto and his staff are among the most aggressive in scouring the trade market as well, and a number of corner bats could plausibly be discussed. Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy are among the players who’ve been mentioned as at least speculative trade candidates this offseason. Bryan Reynolds and Randy Arozarena are less likely to move — particularly Reynolds, whom the Pirates have been reluctant to deal for years — but are sure to draw calls from other teams based on their multiple seasons of arbitration control and consistently strong performances.

The Mariners are firmly in win-now mode after a second straight 90-win season that snapped their 21-year playoff drought. Dipoto, Hollander and company have been and will continue to be aggressive in building around their excellent young core, but it’s worth noting they’re not devoid of in-house options who could play their way into a regular role alongside Hernández and Rodríguez.

Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell haven’t found much success at the MLB level, but they’re each former top prospects who are still in their mid-20’s and coming off quality performances in Triple-A. Dipoto name-checked both players, as well as prospect Cade Marlowe, as internal candidates to take the next step. The M’s could entertain dealing Kelenic or Trammell for a lower-upside but more stable veteran bat as well, and Divish reports Seattle “shopped Kelenic extensively” at last summer’s trade deadline.

There’s also the presence of Jesse Winker, who was acquired last spring in the deal that saw Seattle assume the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract. Winker was the headliner of the trade from the M’s perspective, but Suárez surprisingly outperformed him in their first season in the Pacific Northwest. Under contract for $8.25MM in his final year of club control, Winker won’t have immense trade appeal coming off a .219/.344/.344 showing.

The M’s could elect to hold him and hope for better results, but they’ve reportedly floated his name early this offseason. Winker played dreadful defense in left field, and Divish has previously suggested Winker’s lack of improvement on that side of the ball played a role in him falling into some disfavor in the Seattle clubhouse. At his best, the left-handed hitter has shown he’s capable of impact offensive production against righty pitching, but the front office will have to decide whether pairing an outside addition with a change of scenery for Winker is a better fit heading into 2023.

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