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Hyun-Jin Ryu

Hyun Jin Ryu Signs Eight-Year Deal With KBO’s Hanwha Eagles

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Hyun Jin Ryu is headed back to South Korea. The KBO’s Hanwha Eagles announced the signing of Ryu to an eight-year deal worth 17 billion won (equivalent to just over $12.4MM). The contract also contains an opt-out provision at an unspecified date. Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News relayed the details (on X). A Korean-language report from X Sports first reported the 17 billion won guarantee. It’s the largest contract in KBO history.

Ryu debuted with the Eagles in 2006 at age 19. He won the league’s MVP award as a rookie thanks to a 2.23 ERA through 201 2/3 innings. The southpaw turned in a 2.80 ERA in 190 appearances over a seven-year run with the Eagles. After the 2012 season, Hanwha announced they’d make Ryu available to major league teams through the posting system.

Under the MLB-KBO posting rules in effect at the time, teams placed blind bids for the right to exclusive negotiation with the player. The Dodgers bid upwards of $25MM to win that auction. That opened a 30-day window for them to sign Ryu. The sides eventually came to a six-year, $36MM guarantee with various performance bonuses.

It turned out to be an excellent investment. Ryu pitched to an even 3.00 ERA over 30 starts in his debut campaign, finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He turned in a 3.38 mark during his sophomore season before losing almost all of 2015-16 to shoulder and elbow problems. Ryu spent time on the injured list with various lower-body concerns between 2017-18 but remained effective when healthy. He finished his Dodger tenure with a flourish, turning in 182 2/3 innings with an MLB-best 2.32 ERA in 2019. He secured an All-Star nod and a runner-up finish to Jacob deGrom in NL Cy Young balloting.

That stellar year couldn’t have been timed any better. Ryu returned to free agency that winter, this time with all 30 teams eligible to put in offers. He signed a four-year, $80MM pact with the Blue Jays going into 2020. Through two seasons, it looked like a strong move. Ryu turned in a 2.69 ERA over 12 starts during the abbreviated schedule, finishing third in Cy Young balloting. He wasn’t as dominant the following season but managed a reasonable 4.37 ERA while starting a career-high 31 games.

Ryu’s final two seasons were impacted by injury. He battled forearm issues early in the ’22 campaign. An attempt to pitch through the injury was unsuccessful and he required Tommy John surgery in June. That kept him off an MLB mound well into the 2023 season.

The Jays reinstated Ryu on August 1. He managed 11 starts in the final two months, working to a 3.46 ERA. That’s solid production but wasn’t without some worrisome indicators. His fastball velocity sat at a personal-low 88.6 MPH. He struck out just 17% of opposing hitters and allowed 1.56 home runs per nine innings. The Jays deployed him in a very sheltered role. Skipper John Schneider called on Ryu to work beyond five innings just once. He only faced an opposing hitter for a third time in an appearance on 33 occasions.

That all worked against Ryu as he returned to the open market for what’ll be his age-37 season. At the beginning of the offseason, he said it was his preference to remain in MLB. It’s very likely that Ryu could’ve gotten a big league contract offer — the Mets and Padres reportedly showed interest — but it’s possible the market from major league teams wasn’t as robust as he’d anticipated.

Whatever the rationale, Ryu is returning to his home country. He’d spoken before about wanting to pitch for the Eagles between the end of his time in MLB and his overall playing career. He’ll do just that on a record-setting contract that runs through his age-44 season.

This almost certainly marks the end of Ryu’s time in the major leagues. He has had an excellent MLB career, allowing 3.27 earned runs per nine in 186 appearances. He tossed 1055 1/3 innings, struck out 934 batters, and collected 78 wins. A two-time Cy Young finalist, he also received down-ballot MVP votes in 2019 and ’20. Ryu made nine playoff starts over five separate seasons, working to a 4.54 ERA in 41 2/3 frames.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Have Shown Interest In Jarren Duran; Still Considering Free Agent Starters

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The Padres have shown interest in Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re not alone in that regard, per the report, which indicates that multiple clubs have reached out to the Boston front office to express interest. There’s no indication any sort of deal is nigh, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic similarly hears that the Sox and Padres have had “recent” trade discussions as part of the Friars’ ongoing search for outfield help. San Diego has also considered a reunion with outfielder Tommy Pham, per Lin, though he further notes that no formal offer has been made.

Duran, 27, would fill an acute need for the Padres, whose only established MLB outfielder at the moment is Fernando Tatis Jr. Beyond Tatis and Jose Azocar, San Diego doesn’t even have an outfielder on its 40-man roster. Non-roster invitees to spring training like Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson and Cal Mitchell are among the current options to vie for a roster spot in spring training, although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the Padres have also been considering the idea of deploying top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill in the outfield this season as well. Merrill, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 and the game’s No. 17 prospect according to Baseball America, would also need to be added to the 40-man roster.

Duran is a former top-100 prospect himself, though he just broke through with his first real major league success as a 26-year-old in 2023. The now-27-year-old former seventh-round pick appeared in 102 games for the Red Sox and batted .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and a 24-for-26 showing in stolen base attempts. Duran also trimmed his formerly problematic strikeout rate to a more manageable 24.9%, although his 6.6% walk rate is two percentage points shy of league-average.

While Duran has elite speed — 95th percentile, per Statcast — his route running and lack of arm strength have led to well below-average grades in center field. Defensive Runs Saved is most bearish, pegging him at -19 in just shy of 1200 innings, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at -10.5 and Outs Above Average has him at -2. Azocar is capable of handling center field, however, so an acquisition of Duran could lead to him slotting into left field in San Diego, where his glovework would grade more favorably.

There are fair questions about whether Duran can sustain last year’s production at the plate, however. Last year’s .381 average on balls in play may not regress all the way to league-average levels, as players with elite speed can turn grounders into hits at a far higher clip, but Duran’s penchant for chasing pitches off the plate (career 35.1%) and below-average contact rate on such offerings has a tendency to undercut his above-average contact skills on pitches within the zone (92.1%).

Boston’s appetite for dealing Duran remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that he was drafted back in 2018 and the Sox have now turned over their front office twice since making that selection. First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow doesn’t have the connection with Duran that predecessors Chaim Bloom and Dave Dombrowski may have. And while Duran is ticketed for a regular role with the Sox as the roster is currently constructed, Boston isn’t short on outfield alternatives.

Were Duran to be moved, the Sox could turn to Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu from left field to right field, with designated hitter Masataka Yoshida also mixing into the corners on occasion. Roman Anthony, Boston’s second-round pick from the 2022 draft, has already climbed as high as Double-A and recently placed 21st on BA’s Top 100 prospect rankings, creating further depth.

The Padres don’t have that type of outfield depth, due in no small part to years of aggressive win-now trades that have combined to thin out the system. San Diego has also been working to scale back payroll, which would make a pre-arbitration player like Duran a natural target. He’ll very likely be arb-eligible next winter as a Super Two player, but he’d fit the team’s desire to manage payroll during the 2024 campaign. And with just 1.155 years of big league service under his belt, Duran could be controlled for five more seasons.

Lin further reports that while the outfield is the greater focus at the moment, San Diego is still exploring the free-agent market for rotation help. He lists Michael Lorenzen, old friend Eric Lauer, and Hyun Jin Ryu as pitchers with whom the San Diego front office has spoken. Heyman, too, lists Ryu as a potential target for the Padres.

Of the three, Lorenzen is coming off the best and healthiest season. An All-Star for the 2023 Tigers, Lorenzen was traded to the Phillies at last summer’s deadline and thrust himself into the spotlight with a pair of dominant performances to begin his Phillies tenure. The converted reliever began to fade after a masterful 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in early August, however, and his struggles snowballed to the point that the Phils dropped him from the rotation to the bullpen. Lorenzen closed out the year with a dismal 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings following that no-hit gem.

Lauer, 28, is a former Padre who went from San Diego to Milwaukee alongside Luis Urias in the trade bringing Trent Grisham to the Friars. He looked to be on his way to a breakout in Milwaukee after adding a slider to his repertoire in 2021, and from ’21-’22 he posted a combined 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings. The 2023 campaign was a disaster that saw Lauer torched for a 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. Milwaukee optioned him to Triple-A to try to get him back on track, but Lauer yielded a 5.15 earned run average in a near-identical sample of 43 2/3 innings there.

Elbow and shoulder injuries have both sent Lauer to the injured list over the past two seasons. It’s possible that he wasn’t at full strength in 2023, given that pair of IL trips and a major dip in his average fastball (93.3 mph in 2022; 91.2 mph in 2023). If Lauer is at full strength, he’d be a nice buy-low option — particularly since his 4.111 years of MLB service make him controllable through the 2025 season for any team that signs him.

As for Ryu, he pitched well in his return to the Blue Jays following Tommy John surgery. The ten-year MLB veteran notched a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts and 52 innings, though his performance wasn’t without its own reasons for hesitation. Ryu only pitched beyond the fifth inning once in 2023, and the Jays never let him reach even 90 pitches in an appearance. Last year’s 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low mark, and his 17% strikeout rate was his third-lowest in ten MLB seasons. Ryu was quite homer-prone in 27 innings in 2022 before undergoing surgery, but he was even more susceptible to the long ball last year, yielding nine in his 52 innings (1.56 HR/9).

Lorenzen might still have enough track record and interest to generate a two-year offer in free agency, but it’s likely Ryu and certainly Lauer will be available on one-year pacts that check in under $10MM — well under in the case of Lauer, who’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.2MM salary before being non-tendered. San Diego’s current $159MM payroll and $215MM luxury tax projection (via Roster Resouce) should leave some room for additional spending, even as the team looks to cut spending. Last year’s Padres payroll climbed as high as $255MM.

The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.

Top-of-the-Market Arms

  • Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
  • Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.

Solid Innings

  • Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
  • Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
  • Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.

Injury Cases

  • Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
  • Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.

Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.

Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers

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The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.

AL East Notes: Ryu, Wells, Yankees

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Hyun Jin Ryu isn’t ready to say goodbye to Major League Baseball. Speaking with Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, the 36-year-old pitcher didn’t offer much insight about his impending free agency, saying, “I don’t know what to tell you at this point. I think we’ll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.” However, while his comments weren’t very revealing, they make it sound like he isn’t planning to retire, at least without testing the waters of free agency first.

To that end, Ryu reconfirmed that when he is ready to leave MLB, he will return to the KBO to finish his career with the Hanwha Eagles. He played for the Eagles from ages 19 to 25. “I haven’t changed my mind on that,” he said. “I will absolutely make that happen.” Once again, his response implies that retirement isn’t on his mind quite yet.

Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2020 season. The southpaw excelled during the first year of the deal, pitching to a 2.69 ERA and finishing third in voting for the AL Cy Young. He was solid but hardly ace-like the following season, posting a 4.37 ERA in 31 starts. Unfortunately, his next two campaigns were marred by injury. Ryu needed Tommy John surgery last summer, and he made just 17 starts from 2022-23. He was serviceable upon his return, rejoining the Blue Jays rotation for August and September, but his underlying numbers were worrisome (17% strikeout rate, 4.70 SIERA), and he failed to make the roster for the AL Wild Card Series.

Ryu will be 37 next season, but given his long track record of success and his dominant run from 2018-20, he should draw some interest this winter. If he doesn’t receive any offers to his liking, perhaps he’ll consider heading back to the KBO, but at least for now, it seems like he’s planning to pitch another MLB season in 2024.

In other news from the AL East…

  • Tyler Wells lost his job in the Orioles’ rotation this summer. He was optioned just ahead of the trade deadline, and he transitioned to a relief role at Triple-A. About eight weeks later, the towering right-hander earned a call-up back to the big leagues, where he made four scoreless appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen. He made three more scoreless appearances in the playoffs, taking the mound in all three of Baltimore’s ALDS games. Yet in spite of his success out of the ’pen, the Orioles are expecting Wells to rejoin the starting rotation in 2024, according to Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com. In 20 starts last year, the 29-year-old pitched to a 3.98 ERA and a 4.28 SIERA. However, he looked much stronger over the first three months of the season before he ran out of gas in July. With another year of big league experience under his belt, the Orioles will hope he can stick around for a full season in the rotation.
  • In the latest edition of his Yankees Beat newsletter, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com touched on the team’s surplus of options in the middle infield. He suggests the Yankees could look to trade Gleyber Torres, but the possibility of dealing Oswald Peraza is not up for discussion. Torres is a talented second baseman, but he’s a known quantity at this point, whereas Peraza has untapped potential at the plate and in the field. What’s more, the Yankees only have one year of team control remaining over Torres, while Peraza won’t even be eligible for arbitration for at least three more seasons.

Blue Jays Notes: Belt, Ryu, Rivera

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With the Blue Jays having been eliminated from the postseason last night at the hands of the Twins, Toronto is beginning to shift its focus toward the coming offseason. That includes left-handed slugger Brandon Belt, who yesterday expressed uncertainty regarding whether or not he’ll continue playing in 2024.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” Belt told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) following the club’s defeat in Minnesota last night. “This could be the end for me… I just don’t know yet. It’s something I need to talk to my family about and see what their thoughts are on it and see how I feel about it in a couple of months, then go from there.”

Belt, a veteran of 13 major league seasons, debuted with the Giants back in 2011, won World Series rings with the club in both 2012 and 2014, and made his only career All Star appearance back in 2016. 2023 marked the first season of his career he spent outside the Giants organization after he signed a one-year, $9.3MM deal to join the Blue Jays this past offseason. While the 35-year-old has been effective as ever at the plate in recent years, with a .258/.369/.503 slash line since the start of the 2020 season that includes a 138 wRC+ effort this year, the veteran has dealt with injuries more and more frequently in recent years.

Belt has been limited to just 278 games thanks to injuries over the last three seasons, which saw him wind up on the IL a whopping seven times with issues ranging from a fractured thumb to knee and hamstring issues. While Belt’s effectiveness at the plate would surely draw interest from a variety of clubs, particularly given the lack of impact bats available in free agency, given his age and injuries it’s understandable that the slugger wants to ponder his future before committing to a return.

Other pending free agents also spoke to reporters yesterday (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), with lefty veteran Hyun Jin Ryu among them. Ryu just wrapped up the final year of his four-year, $80MM pact with Toronto. After kicking off his time with the Blue Jays by finishing as a finalist in AL Cy Young award voting during the 2020 season, Ryu posted roughly average numbers (4.37 ERA, 4.02 FIP) in 2021 before missing most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons thanks to Tommy John surgery.

Overall, the 36-year-old southpaw posted a 3.97 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 315 innings of work with the Blue Jays, including a 3.46 ERA across eleven starts this season after returning from surgery. Ryu confirmed to reporters yesterday that he hopes to continue pitching in MLB in 2024, and even in a deep free agent class for starting pitching options, it seems reasonable to expect Ryu to find a big league deal somewhere. While the veteran’s injury history is fairly lengthy, he’s been effective when healthy since debuting with the Dodgers back in 2013, with a career 3.27 ERA and 3.53 FIP. That said, it would be reasonable to expect the veteran to be limited to one-year offers given his recent surgery and middling peripherals since returning back in August (4.91 FIP, 4.70 SIERA).

While the future of both Belt and Ryu in Toronto is currently up in the air, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi did reveal one member of the Blue Jays who won’t be returning for 2024: longtime third base coach Luis Rivera, who is retiring after 11 years in the role with Toronto. After playing in the majors for 11 seasons, Rivera managed in the minor leagues for both Toronto and Cleveland before settling into his role as third base coach of the Blue Jays.

Minor 40-Man Moves: Adams, Ortega, Capra

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With the trade deadline behind us, a few smaller 40-man transactions from throughout the day that weren’t previously covered:

  • The Angels selected outfielder Jordyn Adams onto the big league roster while transferring Jo Adell and Sam Bachman to the 60-day injured list. The 17th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Adams is set for his major league debut. The 23-year-old outfielder is hitting .264/.351/.466 through 389 plate appearances with Triple-A Salt Lake. Strikeout issues have knocked down his former top prospect stock, but he’s capable of playing center field and has stolen 37 bases in 42 attempts this year.
  • The Pirates selected infielder Vinny Capra. Pittsburgh acquired the 27-year-old for catcher Tyler Heineman in a minor swap with the Blue Jays at the end of April. His big league experience consists of eight games with Toronto last season. The right-handed hitter owns a massive .350/.457/.485 showing with more walks than strikeouts over 34 games at Triple-A Indianapolis for the Bucs.
  • The Mets selected Rafael Ortega. Signed to a minor league deal in mid-June, the lefty-hitting outfielder returns to the big leagues for a seventh season. Ortega hit .265/.344/.408 for the Cubs between 2021-22. He owns a .228/.352/.388 line between two Triple-A affiliates this season. The 32-year-old will be eligible for arbitration after the season if he finished the year on the MLB roster.

Injured List Transactions

Blue Jays To Activate Hyun Jin Ryu On Tuesday; Use Six-Man Rotation

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Hyun Jin Ryu, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, will be reinstated to start Tuesday’s game against the Orioles. Manager John Schneider told reporters, including Scott Mitchell of TSN, that the club will use a six-man rotation for a while.

Ryu, 36, signed a four-year, $80MM deal with the Jays going into 2020. He was brilliant in that first year, posting a 2.69 ERA in the shortened season. That figure ticked up to 4.37 the next year, then was at 5.67 last year before he required Tommy John in June. He has since been targeting a return around the 2023 All-Star break and will now be back just slightly beyond that.

It’s been an open question as to how the Jays would handle Ryu’s return. Their five starters have remarkably remained healthy all year, with none of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Yusei Kikuchi or Alek Manoah requiring a stint on the injured list. Manoah did struggle immensely and get optioned down to the club’s Florida Complex for a month from early June, but has since returned.

It seems the club will stick with all six of those starters for now. As pointed out by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, the Jays have a stretch of 17 games in 17 days, starting tonight and going until August 13. They then have three off-days in just over a week and will likely need to make a decision at that point as to how they proceed.

Kikuchi has previously been pushed to the bullpen and could be an option for that again, though he’s having good results so far this year. His 3.79 ERA would be a career best if he could maintain it, though a 84.8% strand rate points to some regression, hence his 4.79 FIP and 3.96 SIERA. Manoah was already optioned once and could perhaps receive that treatment again. His first start back from the wilderness saw him strike out eight Tigers while walking none. He then walked five Padres in his next start without a single punchout. His third start was a middle ground, as he walked four Mariners while striking out six.

Back in June, when Manoah was still on optional assignment and Ryu still on the IL, general manager Ross Atkins said that starting pitching would be an “obvious area” for the club to target at the deadline. Perhaps the returns of those two pitchers changes that calculus, though that will be seen over the coming days. The deadline is August 1.

AL East Notes: Mountcastle, Yankees, Ryu

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The Orioles welcomed first baseman Ryan Mountcastle back from the injured list this morning, per a team announcement. 2023 has been a difficult season for Mountcastle, as the slugger slashed just .227/.264/.421 in 261 plate appearances before heading to the injured list with vertigo in mid-June.

Mountcastle spoke to reporters, including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, about his struggles with vertigo and how it impacted his hitting. He explained that he dealt with waves of dizziness that made baseball appear to be the size of a pea while he was in the batters’ box prior to going onto the IL, and that while he’s felt better in recent days, there’s no way of knowing whether the issues with crop up again in the future. For now Mountcastle figures to join the club’s outfield and DH mix alongside the likes of Ryan O’Hearn, Aaron Hicks, and Anthony Santander.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Yankees received a pair of positive injury updates today regarding their pitching staff. Right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga threw off a mound for the first time since going on the IL back in April, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Max Goodman of NJ Advance Media). Meanwhile, left-hander Nestor Cortes threw a 20-pitch live bullpen session today, as relayed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Both Boone and Cortes indicated the session went well, with Cortes adding that his next bullpen session will take place this coming Thursday. While Loaisiga has thrown just 3 1/3 innings this season and Cortes has struggled with a 5.16 ERA across 11 starts this season, the return of both players before season’s end would surely provide a boost to the Yankees, given their past successes.
  • Blue Jays left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is poised to take the mound for Toronto’s Single-A affiliate in Dunedin today, per an announcement by the minor league club. Ryu, 36, is rehabbing after undergoing Tommy John surgery last season and, per MLB.com, was sitting 87-88 with his fastball during his previous rehab outing in the Florida Complex League. That velocity isn’t far from where he’s expected to be at the big league level, and MLB.com indicates that Ryu could return “within the month” after building up to take on a starter’s workload. Ryu’s return could help shore up Toronto’s rotation depth down the stretch, an area that GM Ross Atkins highlighted as a focus ahead of the trade deadline on August 1.

Hyun Jin Ryu To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Blue Jays left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu will begin a rehab assignment on July 4, reports Scott Mitchell of TSN. Mitchell adds that Ryu is apparently in great shape, having lost about 30 pounds.

The lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and has long maintained he’s targeting a return in July of this year. He’ll likely need a few weeks of rehab to build back up to a starter’s workload but the July target still seems within reach. Rehab assignments for pitchers come with a 30-day maximum length.

The return of Ryu figures to be a key storyline for the Jays in the coming weeks. General manager Ross Atkins spoke this week about how the rotation was an “obvious area” for the club to address at the upcoming deadline but that the club would “balance” that against the status of Ryu and Alek Manoah.

Manoah is in a very different situation to Ryu, as he doesn’t have an injury but merely suffered immense struggles to start the season. After posting a 2.24 ERA last year and finishing third in Cy Young voting, he was shelled for a disastrous 6.36 ERA through 13 starts this year and optioned down to the lower levels of the Jays’ system. He was recently tagged for 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in a Complex League start.

With Manoah getting bumped from the rotation, the Jays are down to four regular starters in Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. Thankfully, all four of those hurlers have been pitching well to varying degrees, with Bassitt’s 4.06 ERA the highest of the bunch, and the club has been able to buttress that group with the occasional bullpen game featuring Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards in bulk roles.

That group has helped the club stay afloat in the tight American League race, as their 45-37 record gives them possession of the final Wild Card spot for the moment. However, they are only half a game up on the Astros with the Angels and other clubs not too far behind. Going into the postseason run with a shorthanded rotation would obviously be less than ideal.

If Ryu can get back into peak form, that would be a tremendous boost for the Jays, but that’s not a guarantee for a 36-year-old coming off a long layoff. He signed a four-year, $80MM deal with the Jays after 2019 and was brilliant in the first season. He posted a 2.69 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and finished third in Cy Young voting that year. His ERA climbed to 4.37 the year after, but still had strong peripherals and a 4.02 FIP. His ERA climbed even further to 5.67 last year before the surgery, but that was in just seven starts and his diminished velocity suggests the elbow may have already been hampering him.

The trade deadline is on August 1 this year, giving the Jays roughly a month to evaluate their overall rotation picture and decide how aggressively to pursue starting pitching upgrades. That will make the progress of Ryu and Manoah an interesting storyline to watch in the weeks to come. It will also be important for Ryu from a personal perspective, as he’s now in the final season of his contract and slated to return to the open market in a few months.

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