- The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez’s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds. These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch. On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday. That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
Astros Rumors
Astros Release Hector Velazquez
The Astros have released right-hander Hector Velazquez, as per the official transactions page for Triple-A West. According to multiple reports out of Mexico, Velazquez will now pitch for Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, and he will also be a part of Mexico’s national baseball team roster for the Olympics.
Velazquez posted a 3.90 ERA over 166 innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, chipping in as both a long reliever and occasional spot starter (or opener) over his 89 games with the team. After struggling in 2019, however, Velazquez was designated for assignment during Spring Training 2020 and then claimed by the Orioles, before being traded to Houston in July 2020.
Despite these changes of scenery, Velazquez still hasn’t pitched in a big league game since 2019. The righty had a 1.46 ERA and a 21.8% strikeout rate over 24 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, yet even though the Astros have dealt with a number of pitching injuries this season, it seemed as though Velasquez simply wasn’t in the team’s plans.
He’ll now return to his old stomping grounds, as Velazquez previously pitched in the Mexican League from 2010-2016. The last of those seasons was also with Monclova, with Velazquez posting an impressive 2.47 ERA over 22 starts and 131 1/3 innings. The Red Sox purchased his contract following that strong season.
Astros Place Carlos Correa On Injured List
The Astros announced they’ve placed star shortstop Carlos Correa on the COVID-19 injured list. Fellow infielder Taylor Jones has been recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take his spot on the active roster.
Correa has been sick, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) before the team’s announcement of his IL placement. There’s no indication he’s actually tested positive for COVID-19; players can be placed on the COVID IL merely for feeling virus-like symptoms. There’s no minimum term for players on the COVID IL.
It has been a banner season for Correa, who’s bounced back from an average 2020 campaign to perform at an MVP-caliber level. The 26-year-old has hit a stellar .288/.385/.510 and popped sixteen home runs across 358 plate appearances. He’s also played excellent defense at shortstop and already been worth around four wins above replacement in the estimation of both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Both outlets have Correa among the ten most valuable position players in the league this season.
Astros GM James Click: No Ownership Mandate To Stay Below Luxury Tax Threshold
Throughout the offseason, the Astros constructed their roster with the luxury tax threshold in mind. That was most apparent in the club’s signing of right-hander Jake Odorizzi to a two-year guarantee that came with an extremely low-priced 2023 player option the veteran righty will almost certainly reject.
The obvious purpose was to spread out the contract’s average annual value — a club’s luxury tax balance is calculated by summing the AAV’s of the team’s financial commitments, not their actual payroll in any given season. Because player options are treated as guaranteed seasons for luxury tax purposes, Odorizzi’s deal is tabulated as a three-year contract with a $7.83MM AAV even though the most likely outcome is that he departs after collecting a total of $20.25MM for two years of work. That creative accounting allowed the Astros to enter the season with a luxury tax balance just under $207MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a little more than $3MM shy of the $210MM first tax threshold.
Houston’s proximity to the tax threshold would seemingly limit their options for making midseason acquisitions, but Astros general manager James Click suggested the organization could exceed the threshold to accommodate a trade. In an appearance on The Sean Salisbury Show, Click said owner Jim Crane “has been very clear” to the front office that the $210MM mark “is not a hard line” the organization cannot go past.
That’s not to say the Astros will certainly go out and acquire one or more players on high-priced contracts. Click promptly cautioned that whether to exceed the threshold “is something we have to factor into our decision-making process” based on the ancillary penalties that come with doing so, particularly with regards to qualifying offers.
Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, a team that goes over the threshold and loses a player who had rejected a qualifying offer in free agency receives a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. A team that neither receives revenue sharing (the Astros don’t) nor exceeded the luxury tax would receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which directly follows the second round. Ultimately, exceeding the tax would knock the Astros’ compensation for losing qualified free agents from a pick in the 70-80 overall range to a pick in the 125-140 range. Paying the tax would also carry increased draft and international signing bonus penalties were they to sign a qualified free agent from another club.
The Astros, who lost their first and second round draft picks in both 2020 and 2021 as punishment for the sign stealing operation, are virtually certain to offer a QO to Carlos Correa and could plausibly issue one to Justin Verlander as well. Given their recent lack of high picks, the potential ability to stockpile selections in 2022 could carry extra import to the organization.
Houston exceeded the threshold last season. Were they to do so again, they’d be subject to a 30-percent tax on any overages between $210MM and $230MM because they’re a tax payor for the second consecutive year. (They’d be subject to higher tax rates in the unlikely event they pushed their CBT ledger north of $230MM this season). That’d also set them up for potential higher penalties were they to exceed the threshold a third consecutive time in 2022, assuming the current system remains in the next collective bargaining agreement.
That’s not to say there’d be no justification for the Astros going past the $210MM mark this season. At 53-33, they’re 4.5 games up on the A’s in the AL West. Houston has the best record in the American League and the top run differential in MLB. This team looks the part of a legitimate World Series contender, so there’s certainly merit to the idea of giving them the best chance to win in 2021.
However, the system disincentivizes teams (particularly so in the Astros’ case) from barely exceeding the threshold to make marginal upgrades. As Click explained to Salisbury, “the worst thing we can do is go over by $1. If we’re going to go over, we’re going to go way over. … If we have an opportunity to bring in somebody that we feel like dramatically improves our chances to win the World Series (whose contract would exceed the threshold), that’s something Jim Crane has shown he’s willing to do for this franchise.”
It remains to be seen if the Astros find an upgrade significant enough for ownership and the front office to deem that worthwhile. With the offense having been far and away the league’s best and the rotation performing well, fortifying a rather young bullpen would seem to be the priority for the Houston front office in the coming weeks.
Astros Outright Francis Martes
Right-hander Francis Martes went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Astros and will remain in the organization, tweets The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Houston designated him for assignment late last week.
Now 25 years old, Martes once ranked as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. The big righty peaked at No. 15 overall on Baseball America’s Top 100 and also landed within the game’s Top 25 overall prospects at MLB.com and at FanGraphs as he rose through Houston’s minor league ranks.
That peak, however, came more than three years ago, and Martes has seen his stock plummet in the years since. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 before being hit with not one but two bans after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Martes was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clomiphene in March 2019, and less than a year later he was saddled with a 162-game ban after testing positive for boldenone.
Martes returned to the mound in 2021, but he’s been drilled for 14 runs (10 earned) on eight hits and a staggering 13 walks in just 8 1/3 frames. He hasn’t hit any batters but has unloaded three wild pitches as well.
Martes made his big league debut with the Astros as a 21-year-old back in 2017, though he struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 54 1/3 frames. In four years since that time, he’s only managed only 33 1/3 innings because of that injury and the pair of PED violations. It’s possible he’ll eventually work his way back into the mix for a big league spot, but given that he’s walked 29 percent of the batters he’s faced in his limited mound work so far in 2021, he has quite a ways to go before that happens.
Astros Place Jose Urquidy On 10-Day Injured List
11:07PM: Urquidy’s MRI revealed “the same results from the last time…some tightness with some inflammation,” the hurler told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. This left Urquidy hopeful of another relatively short IL visit: “I think I’m going to be ready in not a long time.”
5:52PM: The Astros announced a set of roster moves today, including the placement of right-hander Jose Urquidy on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. Left-hander Ryan Hartman’s contract was selected from Triple-A, with 40-man roster space cleared by a corresponding move of right-hander Francis Martes being designated for assignment. In addition, Garrett Stubbs has been called up from Triple-A while catcher Martin Maldonado is going to the bereavement list.
The shoulder issue caused Urquidy to leave last night’s start after just 1 1/3 innings, leaving the Astros ill-prepared for an impromptu bullpen game, and the result was a 13-3 loss to the Orioles. It was an unfortunate turn of events for Urquidy, who has quietly been one of baseball’s better pitchers over the last two months, with a 2.62 ERA over his nine starts and 55 innings prior to last night’s brief outing.
Urquidy missed two weeks in May due to a similar shoulder injury, though Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that this new bout of soreness was in a different area of Urquidy’s throwing shoulder. Urquidy was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.
The Astros had been using a six-man rotation, so they might not need a replacement at all if they’re comfortable working their starters on regular rest. If not, Cristian Javier was used as a starter earlier this season and could be stretched out again or perhaps used in a piggyback capacity with another pitcher.
Perhaps another alternative is Hartman, who has a 3.98 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate over nine starts and 40 2/3 innings at Triple-A Sugar Land this season. A ninth-round pick for the Astros in the 2016 draft, Hartman posted some good numbers in his rise up Houston’s minor league ladder before struggling in his first exposure to Triple-A hitters in 2019. The lefty has performed better this year at Triple-A, though his issues with the home run ball have persisted, as Hartman has allowed 35 homers in 156 1/3 total frames at Triple-A.
Martes had a 10.80 ERA over 8 1/3 innings at Sugar Land this season. Martes was recently activated from the restricted list in the wake of his 162-game suspension for PED usage, issued in February 2020. This was Martes’ second PED suspension, and he also underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2018. Between the Astros’ minor league system and the Dominican Winter League, Martes has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season. Martes was a highly-regarded prospect before his injury and suspension issues, but it seems as if Houston is ready to move on from the 25-year-old.
Jose Urquidy Leaves Start With Shoulder Discomfort
- The Astros/Orioles game saw a couple of pitchers leave early due to injury. Both starters, Jose Urquidy and Travis Lakins, left their respective outings in the second inning. The Orioles expect to have the results of an MRI on Lakins sometime today, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Lakins was making his first start of the season.
- As for Urquidy, he left with shoulder discomfort after 1 2/3 innings. For those wondering if this was a return of the shoulder discomfort that sidelined Urquidy for a couple weeks in May, that does not appear to be the case. The pain that forced Urquidy from Tuesday’s start was in a different area than his prior injury, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Urquidy has been a big part of the Astros’ strong first half, pitching to a 3.38 ERA/4.00 FIP across 14 starts while totaling 77 1/3 innings — more than five innings per outing.
Astros’ Jairo Solis Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Astros right-handed pitching prospect Jairo Solis underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, the team told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). That obviously ends any chance of Solis pitching in 2021 and it’ll sideline him for most or all of the 2022 campaign.
It’s a horrible development for Solis, who also underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2018. That kept him out of action for all of 2019, and he obviously didn’t get an opportunity to pitch in a game last year because of the canceled minor league season. Solis also had a procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow earlier this year, so he hasn’t pitched this season. If he’s indeed out through 2022, he’ll be looking at a staggering four straight years without game action.
In between the injuries, Solis has flashed impact upside. Entering the year, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs credited him with four average or better pitches and ranked him as Houston’s #3 prospect. Longenhagen’s colleague, Kevin Goldstein, wrote that Solis could emerge as a top 100 overall prospect with a breakout performance this summer. Unfortunately, repeated elbow troubles will keep him from getting that opportunity.
The Astros added Solis to the 40-man roster last winter in advance of the Rule 5 draft. He’s spent all of 2021 on the minor league injured list. Players on the minor league IL continue to count against the 40-man roster, so today’s surgery could create a difficult decision for the front office. They surely wouldn’t want to part with a pitcher of his caliber, but it’s possible a roster crunch could force their hand. Houston could add Solis to the major league 60-day injured list to open 40-man roster space during the season, but that’d require paying him a major league salary and he’d still need to be activated from the IL over the offseason.
Baker: Astros Don’t Expect Bregman Back For At Least A Month
The Astros have been rather vague with their timeline for Alex Bregman’s return from the injured list, but manager Dusty Baker said in an appearance on Sports Talk 790 today that he doesn’t expect Bregman back for at least another month (Twitter link).
Injury updates on Bregman have been handled somewhat clumsily from the beginning. The third baseman himself initially said there was no timetable, which isn’t particularly surprising, but he also added at the time of the injury that he wasn’t sure whether he was dealing with a Grade 1 or Grade 2 strain of his hamstring. Last week, Baker told reporters that the expectation was for Bregman to be out “two to three works or more,” and while today’s statement doesn’t technically invalidate that tentative timeline, it certainly paints a more pessimistic outlook with regard to Bregman’s return.
The first-place Astros have a 1.5-game lead over the second-place Athletics, so the absence of one of their best all-around players is a particularly notable blow. The 27-year-old Bregman is enjoying another strong year at the plate, hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven homers and 14 doubles through 262 plate appearances. That’s in line with last year’s production, but his bat has fallen off since 2019’s ridiculous .296/.423/.592, 41-homer showing that earned him a second-place finish in AL MVP voting.
With Bregman sidelined, the Astros have turned to young Abraham Toro to handle the bulk of the work at the hot corner. The 24-year-old Toro has ranked as one of Houston’s better prospects for the past few years, and after a rough showing at the plate early in the season, he’s returned from Triple-A with a .294/.385/.471 in 39 plate appearances. That follows up on a massive .352/.485/.593 performance in 68 Triple-A plate appearances.
Joe Smith To Throw Bullpen Session
- Veteran reliever Joe Smith is also on tap for a bullpen session, with Smith telling reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he plans to run through his entire arsenal of pitches when throwing tomorrow. Elbow soreness sent the Astros righty to the IL on June 9, and he could just need the one bullpen before beginning a minor league rehab assignment.
