- Alex Bregman will start a Triple-A rehab assignment within the next few days, the Astros star told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters. A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list on June 17, and though there was initial uncertainty around exactly how long Bregman might be out, the Astros’ series against the Twins on August 5-8 seems to look like the target date. At the time of his injury, Bregman was hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs over 262 plate appearances.
Astros Rumors
Draft Signings: 7/22/21
The latest on some notable Day Two draft signings. For more on the 2021 draft, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
- The Twins agreed to deals with Competitive Balance Round A pick Noah Miller and second-rounder Steve Hajjar, the team announced. As the 36th overall pick, Miller had an assigned slot price of $2,045,400, and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter) reports that the high school shortstop’s bonus was under slot at $1.7MM. Hajjar’s bonus hasn’t yet been reported, but the 61st overall pick has an assigned price of $1,129,700.
- The Rockies announced the signing of second-round pick Jaden Hill, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reporting the LSU righty signed for the $1,689,500 slot price attached to the 44th overall pick. Also from Callis, the Rockies agreed to another at-slot deal with Ohio University southpaw Joe Rock, whose deal is worth the assigned $953,100 price for the 68th overall pick.
- The Mets signed 46th overall pick Calvin Ziegler for a $910K bonus, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The Canadian right-hander’s deal falls significantly below the $1,617,400 slot value, so the Mets gained some significant pool savings that were necessary for the above-slot deal in the works with tenth overall pick Kumar Rocker.
- The Brewers signed second-rounder Russell Smith for a $1MM bonus, Callis tweets. A left-hander out of TCU, Smith was the 51st overall pick, which has a slot value of $1,436,900.
- The Cubs agreed to a $2.1MM bonus with second-round pick James Triantos, according to Callis. It’s an overslot deal for Triantos, a high school third baseman from Virginia, as the 56th overall selection had an assigned price of only $1,276,400.
- The Rays reached a deal with second-rounder Kyle Manzardo, with Callis reporting that the Washington State first baseman signed for $750K. The 63rd overall pick (and the final pick of the second round proper) has a slot price of $1,076,300.
- The Astros went well over slot to sign third-rounder Tyler Whitaker, as Callis reported that the high school outfielder landed a $1.5MM bonus. That is more than double the $689,300 slot price for the 87th overall pick. Of note, Whitaker was Houston’s first pick of the 2021 draft, due to their punishment from the sign-stealing scandal.
- The Yankees also more than doubled the slot price on a third-round selection, as Callis writes that prep left-hander Brock Selvidge received $1.5MM. The 92nd overall pick has a recommended value of only $637.6K. The Yankees have now signed all their draft picks from the first 10 rounds, going underslot on eight of the 10 players.
Astros Exploring Center Field, Bullpen Markets
The Astros are exploring the market for center field and bullpen help, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported over the weekend that Houston was among the teams with interest in Marlins star Starling Marte.
In addition to Marte, Houston “checked in” on the availability of Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, according to Rosenthal, but it doesn’t seem he’s a particularly attainable target. As Rosenthal wrote in a separate piece earlier this week, Pittsburgh prefers to build around Reynolds rather than trade him this summer. That’s hardly surprising, since the All-Star outfielder is controllable through the end of the 2025 season.
There’s an argument to be made the Astros needn’t explore the center field market at all. While the position looked like a question mark entering the season, Houston center fielders (Myles Straw and Chas McCormick) have played well. The Astros have a cumulative .269/.344/.361 slash line at the position, resulting in a 103 wRC+ that ranks tenth leaguewide. They’ve also both rated highly defensively.
Indeed, it’s possible the Astros would only look to the top of the center field market if they were to make an acquisition. Marte and Reynolds have been among the best performers at the position this year, and Houston could explore the possibility of making an impactful add while being content leaning on Straw/McCormick if no top players come available.
That’d generally align with comments made by general manager James Click earlier this month regarding the club’s payroll outlook. The Astros narrowly stayed below the $210MM luxury tax threshold over the offseason. Click suggested the organization was free to go above the threshold this summer but didn’t seem inclined to inch above the line to accommodate marginal upgrades.
There’s a case to be made no center fielder who might be made available in the next week and a half has the potential to move the needle for a team more so than Byron Buxton. Rosenthal wonders whether the Astros might look into acquiring the Twins’ star center fielder, although there’s no indication they’ve done so to this point.
Of course, it’s not even clear Buxton will become available. Rosenthal reported last week the Twins were making a renewed effort to broker a long-term extension with Buxton but might consider a midseason trade if the parties can’t get a deal done. However, LaVelle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the chances of Buxton being dealt before July 30 are “remote.” Neal hears from Twins personnel who believed the sides were making progress on an extension during Spring Training before those talks broke down. (Jeff Passan of ESPN hears differently, writing that the gap in extension talks this spring “was far too big to bridge“).
Even if the Twins and Buxton don’t work out an extension in the next week, there’s no guarantee Minnesota would make him available in a trade. The Twins can keep him in Minneapolis through 2022 via arbitration, and the club has their sights set on contention next year. Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend the Twins were generally disinclined to part with players under team control beyond this season.
Obviously, the center field situation remains in a state of flux, but the relief market should be more straightforward. There are a handful of productive relievers on non-contending teams, many of whom are affordable enough for Houston to stay below the luxury line if they’re so inclined. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Astros have a little more than $3MM in breathing room before hitting the threshold. Paul Fry and Cole Sulser (Orioles), Scott Barlow (Royals), José Cisnero and Gregory Soto (Tigers), Ian Kennedy (Rangers), Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier (Marlins), Ryan Tepera (Cubs), Richard Rodríguez and Chris Stratton (Pirates) and Daniel Bard (Rockies) are among the many quality relievers due less than that amount for the remainder of the season.
Marlins, Starling Marte End Extension Talks; At Least Three Teams Interested In Trades
Reports from earlier today indicated that Starling Marte rejected the Marlins’ offer of a three-year, $30MM contract extension, making it all the more likely that the outfielder would be dealt prior to the July 30 trade deadline. Contract negotiations are now over between the two sides, according to The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (Twitter links), as Marte didn’t want the talks to become a distraction for him as the second half of the season progresses.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds the detail that the Marlins’ extension offer was greater than three years and $30MM, but regardless, it now seems that the team will focus on dealing Marte. As one might expect, Marte is already drawing interest from multiple suitors, as Heyman writes that the Astros, Phillies, and Yankees are three of the teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about the former All-Star.
Marte would be an upgrade for just about any team, considering his impressive .288/.387/.443 slash line, seven home runs over 249 plate appearances this season (though Statcast hints at some regression). In addition to his bat, the 32-year-old Marte also has 20 steals from 23 chances and he has displayed some impressive glovework in center field.
This is all music to the ears of outfield-needy teams like Houston, Philadelphia, and New York. The Astros have gotten very solid results both offensively and defensively from Myles Straw and Chas McCormick up the middle, but there is no doubt Marte would represent a big upgrade. For the Phillies and Yankees, center field has been a revolving door thanks to injuries.
In terms of contract, Marte is owed around $5.1MM of his original $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season. This adds another wrinkle to the trade market, as Marte’s three known suitors are all very close to exceeding the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Marte alone could conceivably be added with a bit of maneuvering under the tax line, but that would eliminate pretty much all available payroll space for further trade needs like pitching.
Throughout the winter and into the season, the Yankees and Astros have in particular made several moves indicating that staying under the tax line (and avoiding an escalating repeater penalty) is a priority, though both Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Astros GM James Click recently stated that they would go over the CBT line in the right circumstance. The Phils have never exceeded the luxury tax line, but owner John Middleton has said in the past that he would also be willing to make a tax payment for a difference-making addition.
An argument can certainly be made that Marte is such an addition, though it is also possible that he could be acquired in a trade that wouldn’t require any CBT overage. The Marlins could be more willing to eat most or all of Marte’s salary if they were offered higher-caliber prospects, though then it becomes a question of just how much prospect value any of the three teams would want to surrender for a rental player. Marte could also be included as part of a larger trade package that might see multiple players swap clubs, with perhaps a larger contract sent back Miami’s way as some kind of salary offset.
Astros Activate Carlos Correa, Austin Pruitt
The Astros have reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Austin Pruitt from the injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the White Sox. Correa had been on the COVID-19 IL, while Pruitt was on the 60-day IL all year after undergoing elbow surgery last September.
The Astros had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary in that regard. However, they will need to make a 40-man move whenever left-hander Brooks Raley, who also landed on the COVID IL last week, returns. To clear active roster space, infielder Taylor Jones was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.
Correa’s having an incredible platform season, hitting .288/.385/.510 over 358 plate appearances while playing high-end defense at shortstop. Pruitt, meanwhile, will be making his first major league appearance since 2019 (and his Astros’ debut) whenever he enters a game. Houston acquired the righty from the Rays over the 2019-20 offseason, but the elbow issues that eventually required surgery kept him from pitching last year. He worked to a 4.87 ERA/4.23 SIERA across 67 appearances (ten starts) with Tampa Bay from 2017-19.
Astros Could Pursue Starting Pitching At Deadline
- The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez’s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds. These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch. On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday. That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
Astros Release Hector Velazquez
The Astros have released right-hander Hector Velazquez, as per the official transactions page for Triple-A West. According to multiple reports out of Mexico, Velazquez will now pitch for Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, and he will also be a part of Mexico’s national baseball team roster for the Olympics.
Velazquez posted a 3.90 ERA over 166 innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, chipping in as both a long reliever and occasional spot starter (or opener) over his 89 games with the team. After struggling in 2019, however, Velazquez was designated for assignment during Spring Training 2020 and then claimed by the Orioles, before being traded to Houston in July 2020.
Despite these changes of scenery, Velazquez still hasn’t pitched in a big league game since 2019. The righty had a 1.46 ERA and a 21.8% strikeout rate over 24 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, yet even though the Astros have dealt with a number of pitching injuries this season, it seemed as though Velasquez simply wasn’t in the team’s plans.
He’ll now return to his old stomping grounds, as Velazquez previously pitched in the Mexican League from 2010-2016. The last of those seasons was also with Monclova, with Velazquez posting an impressive 2.47 ERA over 22 starts and 131 1/3 innings. The Red Sox purchased his contract following that strong season.
Astros Place Carlos Correa On Injured List
The Astros announced they’ve placed star shortstop Carlos Correa on the COVID-19 injured list. Fellow infielder Taylor Jones has been recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take his spot on the active roster.
Correa has been sick, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) before the team’s announcement of his IL placement. There’s no indication he’s actually tested positive for COVID-19; players can be placed on the COVID IL merely for feeling virus-like symptoms. There’s no minimum term for players on the COVID IL.
It has been a banner season for Correa, who’s bounced back from an average 2020 campaign to perform at an MVP-caliber level. The 26-year-old has hit a stellar .288/.385/.510 and popped sixteen home runs across 358 plate appearances. He’s also played excellent defense at shortstop and already been worth around four wins above replacement in the estimation of both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Both outlets have Correa among the ten most valuable position players in the league this season.
Astros GM James Click: No Ownership Mandate To Stay Below Luxury Tax Threshold
Throughout the offseason, the Astros constructed their roster with the luxury tax threshold in mind. That was most apparent in the club’s signing of right-hander Jake Odorizzi to a two-year guarantee that came with an extremely low-priced 2023 player option the veteran righty will almost certainly reject.
The obvious purpose was to spread out the contract’s average annual value — a club’s luxury tax balance is calculated by summing the AAV’s of the team’s financial commitments, not their actual payroll in any given season. Because player options are treated as guaranteed seasons for luxury tax purposes, Odorizzi’s deal is tabulated as a three-year contract with a $7.83MM AAV even though the most likely outcome is that he departs after collecting a total of $20.25MM for two years of work. That creative accounting allowed the Astros to enter the season with a luxury tax balance just under $207MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a little more than $3MM shy of the $210MM first tax threshold.
Houston’s proximity to the tax threshold would seemingly limit their options for making midseason acquisitions, but Astros general manager James Click suggested the organization could exceed the threshold to accommodate a trade. In an appearance on The Sean Salisbury Show, Click said owner Jim Crane “has been very clear” to the front office that the $210MM mark “is not a hard line” the organization cannot go past.
That’s not to say the Astros will certainly go out and acquire one or more players on high-priced contracts. Click promptly cautioned that whether to exceed the threshold “is something we have to factor into our decision-making process” based on the ancillary penalties that come with doing so, particularly with regards to qualifying offers.
Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, a team that goes over the threshold and loses a player who had rejected a qualifying offer in free agency receives a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. A team that neither receives revenue sharing (the Astros don’t) nor exceeded the luxury tax would receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which directly follows the second round. Ultimately, exceeding the tax would knock the Astros’ compensation for losing qualified free agents from a pick in the 70-80 overall range to a pick in the 125-140 range. Paying the tax would also carry increased draft and international signing bonus penalties were they to sign a qualified free agent from another club.
The Astros, who lost their first and second round draft picks in both 2020 and 2021 as punishment for the sign stealing operation, are virtually certain to offer a QO to Carlos Correa and could plausibly issue one to Justin Verlander as well. Given their recent lack of high picks, the potential ability to stockpile selections in 2022 could carry extra import to the organization.
Houston exceeded the threshold last season. Were they to do so again, they’d be subject to a 30-percent tax on any overages between $210MM and $230MM because they’re a tax payor for the second consecutive year. (They’d be subject to higher tax rates in the unlikely event they pushed their CBT ledger north of $230MM this season). That’d also set them up for potential higher penalties were they to exceed the threshold a third consecutive time in 2022, assuming the current system remains in the next collective bargaining agreement.
That’s not to say there’d be no justification for the Astros going past the $210MM mark this season. At 53-33, they’re 4.5 games up on the A’s in the AL West. Houston has the best record in the American League and the top run differential in MLB. This team looks the part of a legitimate World Series contender, so there’s certainly merit to the idea of giving them the best chance to win in 2021.
However, the system disincentivizes teams (particularly so in the Astros’ case) from barely exceeding the threshold to make marginal upgrades. As Click explained to Salisbury, “the worst thing we can do is go over by $1. If we’re going to go over, we’re going to go way over. … If we have an opportunity to bring in somebody that we feel like dramatically improves our chances to win the World Series (whose contract would exceed the threshold), that’s something Jim Crane has shown he’s willing to do for this franchise.”
It remains to be seen if the Astros find an upgrade significant enough for ownership and the front office to deem that worthwhile. With the offense having been far and away the league’s best and the rotation performing well, fortifying a rather young bullpen would seem to be the priority for the Houston front office in the coming weeks.
Astros Outright Francis Martes
Right-hander Francis Martes went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Astros and will remain in the organization, tweets The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Houston designated him for assignment late last week.
Now 25 years old, Martes once ranked as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. The big righty peaked at No. 15 overall on Baseball America’s Top 100 and also landed within the game’s Top 25 overall prospects at MLB.com and at FanGraphs as he rose through Houston’s minor league ranks.
That peak, however, came more than three years ago, and Martes has seen his stock plummet in the years since. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 before being hit with not one but two bans after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Martes was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clomiphene in March 2019, and less than a year later he was saddled with a 162-game ban after testing positive for boldenone.
Martes returned to the mound in 2021, but he’s been drilled for 14 runs (10 earned) on eight hits and a staggering 13 walks in just 8 1/3 frames. He hasn’t hit any batters but has unloaded three wild pitches as well.
Martes made his big league debut with the Astros as a 21-year-old back in 2017, though he struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 54 1/3 frames. In four years since that time, he’s only managed only 33 1/3 innings because of that injury and the pair of PED violations. It’s possible he’ll eventually work his way back into the mix for a big league spot, but given that he’s walked 29 percent of the batters he’s faced in his limited mound work so far in 2021, he has quite a ways to go before that happens.
