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Latest On Starling Marte’s Market

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We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.

That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.

Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).

Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.

As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.

Astros To Re-Sign Justin Verlander

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The Astros have kicked off their offseason with a bold strike, agreeing to re-sign ace Justin Verlander. It’s reportedly a two-year, $50MM guarantee that contains even $25MM salaries over the next two seasons and allows Verlander to opt out after 2022.

The sides came to terms less than an hour after the ISE Baseball client had rejected the team’s one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. That proved to be a wise decision, as Verlander will handily top that salary next season and pick up some financial security in the form of his 2023 player option.

Verlander has only made one appearance in the past two years because of an elbow injury that required a September 2020 Tommy John surgery. When last we saw him at full strength, the 2011 AL MVP was as good as ever. He tossed 223 innings of 2.58 ERA ball in 2019, winning his second career Cy Young award and helping lead Houston to a pennant.

That kind of top-of-the-rotation production is nothing new for Verlander, an eight-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer. He’d posted a 2.52 ERA across 214 frames the year prior, and he has an incredible nine seasons of 200+ innings with an ERA below 3.50 on his resume. Simply put, few pitchers can match the combination of workload and productivity Verlander has put together year in and year out for the bulk of his career.

Of course, there’s real risk Verlander doesn’t regain his peak form coming off two lost seasons. He’ll turn 39 years old in February, so there’d be fairly significant downside even if he weren’t coming off a major arm procedure. The ceiling when investing in a player of this caliber is immense, though, a fact that’s reflected in the seemingly robust interest he generated during his brief stay on the open market. Not only were a few of the game’s top spenders rumored to be involved, Verlander’s deal fairly handily tops the two-year, $40MM figure MLBTR projected entering the offseason — particularly once one factors in the player-friendly opt-out provision.

The Astros determined that to be a risk worth taking, a justifiable stance given that they’re squarely amidst a win-now window. Even facing Verlander’s potential departure, starting pitching wasn’t exactly a need. Despite Verlander missing all of 2021, the Astros’ starting staff ranked fifth in ERA (3.60), albeit with middle-of-the-road strikeout and walk numbers. Zack Greinke looks likely to sign elsewhere this offseason, and the team could look into trades involving Jake Odorizzi. Even still, Houston would bring back Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis García, José Urquidy and Cristian Javier — one of the stronger rotation cores around the league.

A healthy Verlander is the kind of player teams will find room for even in the absence of an ostensible positional need though. Not only should he help the team manage the workloads of the younger arms, the front office is no doubt envisioning the possibility of rolling him back out as a Game One playoff starter. They’re as familiar as anyone regarding Verlander’s recovery process, current form, and work habits. They clearly feel strongly about his ability to bounce back.

In doing so, the Astros will indirectly forfeit a draft pick. While they won’t be stripped of a pick for signing one of their incumbent free agents, they’ll lose the right to collect a compensatory pick in the 70-75 overall range — which they would’ve received had Verlander signed elsewhere after rejecting Houston’s qualifying offer. That’s a small price to pay, even for a team whose farm system has been hit hard by the punishment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, given their current competitive window.

The Astros would stand to add a compensation pick in the event Carlos Correa departs. Like Verlander, Correa also rejected a QO, and the star shortstop is in position for a mega-deal as the top player on the market. The Astros’ previous efforts to re-sign Correa haven’t come particularly close to getting anything done, and Verlander’s return would seem to make the chances of Correa coming back even more remote.

Houston’s 2022 commitments now sit around $162MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s after accounting for estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players but before considering the possibility of a Correa contract. Signing Correa would no doubt push the 2022 tab well above this past season’s $188MM franchise-record player expenditure (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Houston was prepared to enter the 2020 season with a payroll above $200MM before the pandemic necessitated a shortened season with prorated salaries. If owner Jim Crane is willing to go to that level again, then there might be room in the budget for a more earnest Correa pursuit, but it remains to be seen if that kind of spending is on the table.

Regardless of where the Astros go from here, re-signing Verlander serves as a reminder that Correa’s free agency doesn’t mark the end of the club’s competitive window. In addition to a rotation that has as much upside as any in the league, the Astros will roll into 2022 with a lineup that includes Alex Bregman, José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker. They’ll look to hold off the Mariners, Angels and Rangers — all of whom have already been or are expected to be very aggressive this offseason — at the top of the AL West. The A’s look likelier to go in the opposite direction, but Oakland’s current core has been strong enough to compete over the past couple seasons, and it remains to be seen whether they’ll tear the roster down to its studs. All in all, it should be one of the game’s more entertaining and competitive divisions in 2022.

The Verlander signing also paints a picture of what has been a strong rotation market in the early going. The Angels took a similar short-term, high-salary upside flier on Noah Syndergaard yesterday — one day after the Tigers went to five years with an opt-out to land Eduardo Rodríguez. Teams like the Angels, Braves, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox were all linked to Verlander in recent days, and it stands to reason those clubs remain motivated to add rotation upside via free agency or trade. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodón are among the numerous starting pitchers still on the free agent market who have recently posted top-of-the-rotation type of production.

Ben Verlander of Fox Sports first reported Justin Verlander’s agreement with the Astros. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that Verlander’s 2022 salary would be $25MM and reported the presence of the 2023 player option. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported that the option was also valued at $25MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

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1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

Early Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.

We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.

Rejected QO

Decision Not Yet Reported

Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.

Julio Lugo Passes Away

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Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.

Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.

Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

Astros Meet With Starling Marte's Agents

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It could be interesting to observe if the Marlins could be similarly aggressive in approaching other free agents with offers — should such an offer be floated towards a player with fewer options than Marte, Miami might be able to strike a quick deal.  In Marte’s case, however, the Marlins now have to contend with such known suitors as the Yankees, Phillies, and Mets, plus any other clubs that might yet emerge.  The Astros could be another team in the mix, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Houston met with Marte’s agents.

Astros Notes: Correa, Verlander, Meyers

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At the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California, Astros’ general manager James Click spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle about the team’s shortstop vacancy, although he claims not to see it that way.

Most of Houston’s playing time at shortstop over the past seven seasons has gone to Carlos Correa, who is now a free agent. The club reportedly made Correa an offer before he hit the open market, although it apparently fell well short of the industry expectations surrounding his earning power. The five-year, $160MM offer was exactly half of MLBTR’s recent prediction of 10 years and $320MM, making it not terribly surprising that Correa didn’t trip over himself to get out his pen.

In the article, Rome opines that the offer is merely a way for the front office to claim that they made an effort, and then pivot to free agents that can be had on short-term deals, or no free agents at all, with the aim of keeping the position available to be claimed by prospect Jeremy Pena. Due to wrist surgery, Pena only played 30 games at Triple-A this year, but they went very well. The 24-year-old hit .287/.346/.598, for a wRC+ of 126. He comes in at #42 on the FanGraphs list of top prospects across the league, although he doesn’t crack the top 100 at Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.

Until his arrival at the big leagues, the club could consider the in-house option of Aledmys Diaz, as Click describes him as “more than qualified” to take the job. Diaz has a lot of time at shortstop on his resume, but not recently, just 14 games in the last three seasons. That lack of recent work at short and his roughly league-average offense over the past two seasons would certainly be a downgrade from Correa, who is elite on both sides of the ball.

One option not being taken seriously, however, is moving Alex Bregman from this base to shortstop. When asked about that option, Click said, “I would highly doubt it” and later added, “I don’t want to get too cute by half and try to jam a square peg into a round hole.” Bregman was primarily a shortstop before reaching the big leagues, sliding to third because of the presence of Correa. He saw some significant time there in 2019 when Correa was hurt, getting into 65 games, but hasn’t played there since. The move doesn’t seem to be totally off the table, though, as Click added that he “would have to talk to Alex about it.”

In a separate post, Rome speaks to Click about the pitching situation, with Click saying that the bullpen is a bigger need than the rotation. “I know that people have started probably mentally thinking of Cristian Javier as a reliever, but we don’t think that way,” Click says, “and having him as a starting pitching option is very real for us and creates a lot more depth.” Including Javier as a starter certainly does make the rotation look healthy, with Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi all on hand as viable options. The club also has an outstanding $18.4 qualifying offer in front of Justin Verlander at the moment, although based on the success of his recent showcase, the odds seem to be in favour of him declining and exploring the market. Click himself spoke positively about Verlander’s performance at the showcase, as relayed by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Odorizzi’s level of participation seems to be a question mark, however, as Rome details how the hurler wasn’t happy with his usage at times, displeased with the club’s hesitance at letting him face a batting order for a third time. He’s entering his final guaranteed year as an Astro but has a player option for 2023.

Elsewhere in Astros land, the club got some bad news regarding Jake Meyers, per Rome. Meyers left game four of the ALDS with a shoulder injury and never returned. He recently had surgery to repair a labral tear and isn’t expected to be playing by Opening Day 2022. That will hurt the club’s center field depth, as they had traded away Myles Straw at the deadline, in part because Meyers was ready to step up and take his place. The plan went very well before the injury, as Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 for a wRC+ of 111 in 49 games, along with a good showing in four postseason games. As long as Meyers is on the shelf, Houston’s top options in center will likely be Chas McCormick and Jose Siri, although moving Kyle Tucker from right to center is also on the table. “We have to decide, ‘Do we want to consider moving Kyle to center and then going shopping for a corner guy?’” Click said, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. “‘Do we want to have Kyle in center and have Chas and Siri and Yordan and Brantley be kind of rotating through all those spots?’” The market for free agent center fielders isn’t strong, with Starling Marte representing the only true everyday option. The market for corner outfielders, however, has many more exciting options. If the club feels comfortable with Tucker up the middle, it could make sense to take that route. At the big league level, he’s only played five regular season games in center in his career, although he saw some time there this postseason after Meyers got hurt.

Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams

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Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.

As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).

Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”

By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”

It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.

The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.

Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.

Alex Bregman Undergoes Wrist Surgery

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The Astros announced that third baseman Alex Bregman underwent surgery on his right wrist today, though the procedure isn’t expected to impact his readiness for the 2022 season.  The team’s projected timeline sees Bregman as restarting baseball activities in 6-10 weeks, which should mean he’s set for the start of Spring Training camp in February.

Bregman has been battling wrist problems since September, as Astros teammate Carlos Correa revealed to Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein during the World Series.  Bregman downplayed any physical issues but something clearly seemed amiss with his performance at the plate in October.  While Bregman had a few big moments during Houston’s playoff run, Bregman hit only .217/.304/.300 with one home run over 69 plate appearances this postseason.

The wrist surgery underscores what has been an injury-plagued year in general for the third baseman.  Bregman played in only 91 games after missing over two months rehabbing a left quad strain, and he also spent a week on the COVID-related injury list in April.  Though it all, Bregman still provided above-average (113 OPS+, 115 wRC+) offense and hit .270/.355/.422 with 12 home runs over 400 PA, though it was a decided step backwards from his All-Star numbers in 2018-19.  Getting Bregman healthy and fully back on track would be a needed boost to an Astros lineup that might lose Correa to free agency this winter.

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