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Brewers Among Teams Interested In Josh Bell

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The Brewers are among the growing list of teams with interest in Nationals first baseman Josh Bell, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Both Martino and Jeff Passan of ESPN suggest that Bell could be among the first notable names to change hands, perhaps sooner than later. Getting a Bell deal completed in the near future would give Washington general manager Mike Rizzo additional time to focus on the deluge of trade interest he’s receiving in star outfielder Juan Soto.

Milwaukee joins the Mets and Astros as teams known to have interest in Bell, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who’s enjoying a .302/.388/.492 batting line in his final season before reaching free agency. Martino reported yesterday that there has not been substantial momentum in talks between the Mets and the Nationals regarding Bell. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, meanwhile, reports that Bell remains a “priority” for the Astros as they look to upgrade amid Yuli Gurriel’s struggles.

For the Brewers, Bell would serve as both an offensive and defensive upgrade at first base over Rowdy Tellez. Bell has significantly improved as a defensive option at first base in recent years, going from a bottom-five ranked defender to a player who now has slightly above-average ratings at the position. It’s possible that the Brewers’ internal evaluation still favors Tellez, but both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average peg Bell as the better option.

That’s not to say that a Bell acquisition would push Tellez out of a job, but Bell could very well result in Tellez spending more time at designated hitter. A Bell-to-Brewers scenario could prove more worrisome for veteran Andrew McCutchen, who hasn’t performed up to expectations since signing a one-year deal and has uncharacteristically been far worse against left-handed opponents than against righties. Were McCutchen handling lefties as he typically does, a Tellez/McCutchen platoon at DH would appear formidable. That’s not the case, though, as McCutchen’s .230/.281/.402 slash against lefties leaves plenty to be desired.

Bell would give Milwaukee (or any other club) a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence against both lefties and righties. While he’s been better as a left-handed batter (.311/.402/.493), the longtime Pirates slugger has still crushed lefties at a .287/.362/.488 clip this season. Bell had a rough first month of the 2021 season but has generally been outstanding since, hitting at a combined .289/.375/.497 with just a 15.1% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk rate in his past 920 trips to the plate. Bell hits the ball on the ground more than he should (50.9% in that stretch of 920 PAs), but he’s also seen one in five fly-balls he’s hit during that time leave the yard.

The Nats also figure to have several relievers available, with each of Steve Cishek, Carl Edwards Jr. and Kyle Finnegan a candidate to change hands prior to next Tuesday’s deadline. It’s conceivable that the Brewers or any other team with interest in Bell might also try to pry a bullpen arm loose, though Bell should have sufficient value to net a notable prospect or two on his own.

Yesterday’s MLB/MLBPA failure to reach an agreement on an international draft means that the qualifying offer system will remain in place, meaning the Nats will need to be convinced that whichever prospect(s) they receive in exchange for Bell would outweigh the value of a value of a compensatory pick in the 2023 amateur draft. Bell has been a bargain on a $10MM salary this season, so it stands to reason that the Nats would have little hesitation in making a qualifying offer in the $19MM range in order to ensure that they receive draft compensation when he departs as a free agent. That’s an unlikely scenario, given trade interest in Bell, but it’s worth noting that yesterday’s outcome played into the favor of the Nats and a few other non-contenders who are peddling rental players that look like obvious QO candidates this offseason.

Draft Signings: Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, A’s, Blue Jays

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We’ll use this post to round up some of the more notable recent draft signings:

  • The Phillies announced they’ve signed #17 overall pick Justin Crawford. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that the lefty-hitting outfielder will receive a $3.8948MM signing bonus, a hair above the pick’s slot value. Crawford, the son of four-time All-Star Carl Crawford, was ranked by Baseball America as the #18 prospect in the class. A product of a Nevada high school, Crawford is an excellent runner who’s regarded as a possible plus defender in center field. The 6’3″ outfielder is seen as a hit-over-power offensive player. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Red Sox agreed to a deal with #24 selection Mikey Romero, as first reported by Chad Jennings of the Athletic (on Twitter). It’s a $2.3MM deal to convince the infielder to bypass a commitment to LSU. A left-handed hitter from a California high school, Romero was ranked the #54 prospect in the class by BA, explaining why his deal comes in a fair bit shy of the pick’s $2.98MM slot value. BA praises his bat-to-ball skills but notes that his slender frame leads to below-average raw power.
  • The Yankees announced agreement with #25 pick Spencer Jones. Callis reports (Twitter link) that he’ll sign for slot value at $2.8808MM. The class’s #49 prospect according to Baseball America, Jones is a 6’7″ outfielder from Vanderbilt. The left-hander posted a massive .370/.460/.644 showing with 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases through 272 plate appearances during his final season with the Commodores. Jones stuck out at a lofty 23.5% rate, an unsurprising development for a player of his size, but his combination of power and athleticism got him into the late first round.
  • Astros first-round pick Drew Gilbert has signed, according to a club announcement. Callis reports (Twitter link) he’s landed a $2.5MM bonus, a little under the $2.62MM value of the 28th overall pick. A left-handed hitting center fielder from the University of Tennessee, Gilbert was the #24 prospect in the class, per BA. The 5’9″ outfielder has a well-rounded offensive skillset and a good chance to stick in center field, and he’s coming off a .362/.455/.673 showing with more walks than strikeouts in a breakout junior season for the Vols.
  • The A’s are in agreement on an overslot deal with 2nd-round pick Henry Bolte, Callis reports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $2MM bonus to sway him out of a commitment to Texas. A 6’3″ outfielder from the Bay Area, Bolte entered the draft as the #42 prospect in Baseball America’s estimation. He’s regarded as one of the higher-upside players in the class, showing an enviable combination of power, speed and center defense. However, the right-handed hitter also comes with question marks about the high amount of swing-and-miss in his game.
  • The Blue Jays went overslot with a $2MM bonus for supplemental second-round pick Tucker Toman, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s more than double the $846,900 slot value associated with the #77 overall selection. That reflects a loftier prospect status, as the 18-year-old infielder from a South Carolina high school had been the #40 player in the class, according to BA. A 6’1″ infielder, Toman is a switch-hitter with a chance for a strong hit/power combination, although it’s questionable whether he can stay on the dirt or will eventually have to move to the corner outfield. Like Crawford and Romero, he’ll forego a commitment to LSU and start his pro career.

Latest On Yordan Alvarez

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Yordan Alvarez wasn’t in today’s Astros lineup, as the slugger is still dealing with soreness in his right hand.  The same injury already sent Alvarez to the 10-day injured list for a minimum stay prior to the All-Star break, and medical tests during that IL stint didn’t reveal any structural damage.  Still, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle) that the Astros will be giving Alvarez some occasional time off due to this seemingly lingering injury.  “We knew we were going to have to give him a blow every now and then, but he was sore and we don’t want it to get more sore,” Baker said.

With two homers in 13 plate appearances in his four games since returning from the IL, Alvarez didn’t seem too hampered by this recurring hand problem, though some additional rest could certainly prevent a more severe injury.  The last thing Alvarez and the Astros would want is a lengthier IL trip interrupting both Alvarez’s spectacular season and his potential availability for the playoffs.  Alvarez is hitting a whopping .307/.407/.668 over 329 PA in 2022, leading the majors in both slugging percentage and OPS.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Josh Bell

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Nationals first baseman Josh Bell is among the likeliest trade candidates on the market, and the Astros are among the teams interested in adding the slugger to their lineup, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets. The Mets are also said to have interest in Bell, who figures to appeal to just about any team in need of an offensive upgrade.

The 29-year-old Bell (30 next month) has been a force in Washington’s lineup for the past two seasons, coming over from the Pirates in a trade that sent Wil Crowe and minor league righty Eddy Yean to Pittsburgh in return. After an awful first month in D.C. last season, the switch-hitting Bell picked up the pace and hasn’t really slowed down. Since May 1, 2021 — a span of 902 plate appearances — Bell is hitting .293/.376/.503 with 38 long balls, 43 doubles and four triples.

Bell achieves that production with a combination of strong plate discipline and far better bat-to-ball skills than one might expect from a burly 6’4″, 255-pound slugger. He’s walked at an impressive 11.2% clip over that stretch of 902 trips to the plate and struck out in just 15.2% of them (including just 13.5% this season). Bell makes consistently strong contact (45.5% hard-hit rate, 91.1 mph average exit velocity), and although he puts the ball on the ground more than is ideal for someone with his power (51.3% ground-ball rate), he’s adept at spraying line drives. Also, while only 28.2% of Bell’s batted balls during this run have been classified as fly-balls, more than one in five of those flies (20.5%) has left the yard.

Bell once graded as a poor defender at first base but has improved his ratings in recent years. Public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (+3) and Outs Above Average (+1) feel he’s been a solid option at the position this season — a far cry from early in his career when he was turning in full-season marks of -7 and -8. That defensive improvement is surely key for the Astros, who would have to play Bell at first base with a good deal of frequency given the presence of Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter. Alvarez is capable of playing left field and may do so more often with Michael Brantley out indefinitely due to a shoulder injury, but if the team ends up back at full strength, either Alvarez or Brantley would require some extra reps in the DH slot.

That scenario would likely push Astros stalwart Yuli Gurriel into a part-time role, which may be a bitter pill for both Gurriel and the organization to swallow. However, the 38-year-old Gurriel hasn’t performed up to his previous standards, hitting at a .235/.286/.386 clip through 329 plate appearances. He’s still making loads of contact (13.4% strikeout rate), but his walk rate, power output and batted-ball quality have all declined. Gurriel is popping the ball up to the infield at a higher rate than ever before and is sporting a career-low 17.9% line-drive rate. A Gold Glove winner at first base just last season, Gurriel has also posted negative marks in both DRS (-2) and OAA (-5).

Gurriel is still hitting lefties at a respectable .258/.298/.443 clip (110 wRC+), and he’s a fixture in the Houston clubhouse, so it stands to reason that he’d stick on the roster and be relied upon in a part-time role even if the Astros were to acquire Bell or another first base upgrade. It’s also worth pointing out that Gurriel has shown some signs of life after an awful run in April and May; dating back to June 1, he’s batted .255/.318/.418 in 154 plate appearances. That’s still a far cry from both his typical production and the numbers Bell has posted over the past couple seasons, however.

Bell is earning $10MM this season and will be a free agent at season’s end. The Astros’ $174MM payroll is down notably from last season’s franchise-record $188MM mark, and they’re more than $30MM shy of the new $230MM luxury-tax barrier. As such, there shouldn’t be any financial roadblocks to stand in the way of a deal if the two parties can agree on the young talent that would need to go back to Washington in return.

Astros Activate Yordan Alvarez

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The Astros announced Thursday that they’ve reinstated designated hitter Yordan Alvarez from the injured list and placed closer Ryan Pressly on the paternity list. Outfielder Jose Siri was optioned to make room for Alvarez, while lefty Parker Mushinski was reinstated from the 15-day injured list to take Pressly’s spot for now.

Houston general manager James Click also provided updates on a pair of injured veterans, Michael Brantley and Jason Castro, neither of which sounded like return was imminent (Twitter links via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no present timetable for Brantley’s return from a shoulder injury, as the team needs to wait for the inflammation to die down before his rehab can progress further. Click stated that “the best medicine [for Brantley] is time” at this point. More nebulously, the GM said Castro is “making some decisions on what the best plan of attack is to get himself back into playing shape.” The team hopes to have a more concrete update on him before long.

With Brantley still sidelined indefinitely, it’s especially good news for Houston that Alvarez only wound up missing the minimum number of regular-season games possible due to inflammation in his right hand. He’s been the best overall offensive performer in baseball on a rate basis this season, ranking 12th among qualified hitters in batting average (.306), fourth in on-base percentage (.405) and leading the Majors in slugging percentage (.653). Only Aaron Judge (33), Kyle Schwarber (29) and Austin Riley (27) have more home runs than Alvarez’s 26, and each of those three players has at least 83 more plate appearances than Alvarez on the year.

This year’s brilliant production, paired with Alvarez’s generally outstanding track record, prompted the ’Stros to put forth a six-year, $115MM extension offer that Alvarez accepted. His new deal covers the 2023-28 seasons, ensuring that Houston will have control over one of the game’s best hitters for what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons. Given just how good Alvarez is and how immediately he ascended to the ranks of MLB’s elite hitters, it’s easy to forget that he only just turned 25 years old. He’ll be 31 when the new contract expires, leaving him ample opportunity for a second major contract of note.

As for Pressly, he’ll be away from the team for up to three days. He’s been on an absolute tear of late, rattling off a string of nine perfect innings dating back to June 25, punching out 17 of the 27 consecutive hitters he’s retired in that stretch. Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek and Hector Neris will all be leverage options for manager Dusty Baker in Pressly’s absence.

Mushinski’s return makes him the lone lefty reliever in Baker’s bullpen. The 26-year-old rookie has appeared in six games so far, yielding three runs on five hits and three walks with eight strikeouts in 6 1/3 big league innings. He’s also logged a 3.32 ERA in 19 Triple-A innings so far in the 2022 season.

Lance McCullers Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Friday, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link). He’s scheduled to throw two innings for Double-A Corpus Christi.

Pitchers can spend up to 30 days on rehab assignments, so the start of his work suggests an early-mid August timetable for his return to the big leagues if all goes as expected. McCullers has yet to pitch this year as he’s rehabbed from the flexor tendon forearm strain that cut short his 2021 postseason. While the club initially expressed hope he’d be ready for Opening Day, McCullers’ offseason rehab didn’t progress as quickly as expected. He returned to mound work by late May and has spent the past six weeks gradually building back towards game readiness.

Getting McCullers back in mid-August should afford him time to round into shape for the postseason. The Astros lead the Mariners by nine games in the AL West, and they’re even further clear of the Twins for the league’s #2 seed (and associated first-round bye). They’re a virtual playoff lock, and a healthy McCullers will only add to the team’s embarrassment of riches on the mound. The right-hander was arguably the team’s best pitcher last year, tossing 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball while punching out 27% of opponents.

Most teams would struggle to overcome the loss of an arm of that caliber, but the Astros have sported one of baseball’s top rotations. Houston’s starting staff trails only the Yankees in ERA (3.15) and the Padres in innings pitched (522 2/3). They’re seventh in strikeout rate (23.9%) and 11th in walk percentage (7%). Aside from McCullers, Houston’s rotation has stayed mostly healthy. Jake Odorizzi missed around six weeks with a heel injury, but each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy has avoided the injured list. That sextet has combined to make all of the team’s starts, and Urquidy is the only member of the group with an ERA north of 3.76.

If everyone remains healthy, the Astros could consider kicking any of Odorizzi, Javier or Urquidy into relief. Houston’s bullpen has been similarly excellent, leading baseball with a 2.66 ERA. Their strong division lead should allow manager Dusty Baker to keep an eye on the innings totals for McCullers and Verlander (who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery) to ensure they hit the postseason at peak form.

Latest On Michael Brantley

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  • Right shoulder discomfort sent Michael Brantley to the 10-day IL back on June 27, but the Astros outfielder still “didn’t feel right” while trying to swing last Thursday, manager Dusty Baker said.  “Right now, he’s in the same spot, no worse….That was the shoulder he got operated on years ago.  He’s still a little sore,” Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  Brantley had shoulder surgeries in both 2015 and 2016, which limited him to only 11 games in 2016 and also delayed his return in 2017.  There isn’t yet any sense that this current injury is anywhere near as serious, however, though speculatively, Houston could perhaps look out for outfield help at the deadline should they have any longer-term concerns over Brantley’s health.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

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Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

Astros Place Yordan Alvarez On IL With Hand Injury

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2:40pm: The Astros have announced that Alvarez has been placed on the IL, with outfield Jose Siri recalled to take his place on the active roster.

2:15 pm: The Astros are going to place Yordan Alvarez on the 10-day injured list due to a hand injury, reports Julia Morales of AT&T SportsNet Southwest.

Alvarez dealt with a hand issue back in June that caused him to miss a few games. He has evidently been playing through the injury since that time, with Morales relaying word from manager Dusty Baker that the issue has been getting worse. Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle relays that the club is hoping that a period of rest can help the slugger be ready for their series against the Yankees, which is right after the All-Star break.

Due to the upcoming break, this is probably the best time for a player to hit the IL due to a nagging injury. If he can return after a minimum stay, as the Astros hope, Alvarez could miss just seven games. After the All-Star break, the Astros are in for a bit of a grind, as they start with a double-header against the Yankees as part of a stretch wherein they play 19 games in 18 days. By going on the IL now, he’ll miss games against the A’s and Angels but potentially be ready to go for that stretch where they play the Yankees, Mariners, A’s, Red Sox and Guardians.

Although Houston is clearly of the opinion this is a minor issue that be quickly cleared up, it’s still noteworthy that it’s lingered for the past three weeks, as it was June 19 that the hand issue first forced him to miss a game. Of course, it’s also noteworthy given that Alvarez has been perhaps the best hitter on the planet this year. With 26 home runs and an overall slash line of .306/.405/.653, he’s been 97% better than the league average hitter this year. His 197 wRC+ is first among qualified hitters, six points ahead of Paul Goldschmidt’s 191 and 20 points ahead of Aaron Judge’s 171.

Alvarez has largely been used as a DH this year, with 33 left field appearances mixed in. With Michael Brantley also on the IL, this leaves the club a little stretched on the grass, with Kyle Tucker, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick likely getting the bulk of the regular action. Aledmys Diaz, Mauricio Dubon and J.J. Matijevic are also around as outfield-capable options.

There’s little reason for the Astros or their fans to panic, as their 55-29 record gives them a 12-game lead in the AL West. If the injuries to either Alvarez or Brantley linger towards the vicinity of the August 2 trade deadline, the club could always look to outfield upgrades at that point.

Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle first relayed that Alvarez was not with the team and that the issue was his hand (Twitter links). Julia Morales of AT&T SportsNet Southwest relayed that he was indeed landing on the IL.

Astros Reinstate Jake Odorizzi From 15-Day IL

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The Astros activated right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the 15-day injured list, and the veteran will take the hill tonight for a start against the Royals.  In the corresponding roster move, righty Enoli Paredes has been optioned to Triple-A.

Odorizzi last pitched on May 16, when he suffered tendon and ligament damage (but no tears or strains) while running to cover first base on a fielding play.  While missing over six weeks of action is no small matter, it seemed as if Odorizzi’s season could be in jeopardy when he was carted off the field.

Now, the righty will return to Houston’s rotation and try to continue what has been a successful season to date.  Odorizzi has a 3.13 ERA over seven starts and 31 2/3 innings, despite some below-average strikeout and walk rates. Though Odorizzi hasn’t allowed much hard contact, a .320 xwOBA (well above his .269 wOBA) indicates that some regression could be in order.

Given the overall quality of the Astros rotation, Odorizzi will have to pitch well to make his case for a possible postseason start, though he likely isn’t in any danger of losing a rotation spot.  With their number of arms on hand and the team’s desire to keep everyone fresh and healthy for October, the Astros could stick with a six-man rotation or perhaps just float starters in and out of the rotation in order to manage innings.

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