- Jose Altuve didn’t play today and likely won’t play on Sunday, as Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle) that Altuve is dealing with a minor oblique problems. The second baseman felt discomfort after a swing in Friday’s game, and while the injury isn’t deemed serious enough to merit an MRI, the Astros are naturally being careful with Altuve given how oblique problems can linger or become easily aggravated. It’s a day-to-day situation for now, though Houston doesn’t have an off-day on the schedule until June 12.
Astros Rumors
Forrest Whitley Out 3-4 Months With Lat Strain
Astros minor league pitcher Forrest Whitley has been diagnosed with a lat strain and will miss between three and four months, the club announced today (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). That timetable puts his 2023 campaign in jeopardy.
It’s the latest brutal blow for a player who was once among the sport’s top prospects. Whitley was a first round draftee in 2016 and looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter early in his pro career. Baseball America ranked the 6’7″ hurler among the sport’s ten most promising minor leaguers in both 2018 and ’19.
Things have unfortunately gone sharply downhill since then. Whitley was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season.
Whitley opened this year back in Triple-A Sugar Land. He surrendered a 5.70 ERA over 30 innings while struggling to throw strikes. Whitley’s 23.7% strikeout rate was solid but he walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He’s had scattershot command the past few years, though that’s not especially surprising since the injuries have prevented him from staying on the mound consistently.
The Astros added Whitley to the 40-man roster after the 2020 season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has still yet to reach the majors. This is his third minor league option year. Most players can only be sent to the minors in three separate seasons before being exposed to waivers. Exceptions are sometimes made for players who’ve spent a significant chunk of time on the injured list, however. Whitley would seem a prime candidate for a fourth option. That likely won’t be known until next offseason.
Houston will have to weigh whether it’s worth keeping Whitley on the 40-man regardless. They could clear a spot in-season by placing him on the MLB 60-day IL and paying him a major league salary for time spent rehabbing. There’s no injured list over the offseason and Whitley will be five years removed from the peak of his prospect stock if he doesn’t return this season.
Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan
With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA
Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.
Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA
Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721
Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.
Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA
Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.
Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.
Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA
The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).
Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Lance McCullers Jr. No Longer Throwing Off Mound
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is no longer throwing from a mound, manager Dusty Baker informed reporters before today’s matchup with the Twins (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Baker didn’t provide any additional specifics, noting only the club will “take it slow with Lance until we know that he’s 100 percent.”
It’s unclear how significant this latest development will be — the Astros are as cagy as any team about providing injury updates — but it represents a scaling back from where McCullers was a couple weeks ago. He’d progressed to bullpen sessions in mid-May but had moved back to throwing from flat ground of late. General manager Dana Brown recently pegged the All-Star Break as a loose estimate for his return to a big league mound; it’s unclear if or to what extent that timeline might now be delayed.
McCullers hasn’t pitched this year on account of a muscle strain in his forearm that was diagnosed over the offseason. It marked the continuation of arm issues for the 29-year-old, who was diagnosed with a flexor strain during the 2021 postseason. That cost him until mid-August last year. McCullers returned to make 11 starts between the regular season and playoffs to help the Astros to a World Series title but unfortunately again battled arm soreness over the winter.
The right-hander also has a Tommy John surgery in his history, having undergone the procedure over the 2018-19 offseason. There’s nothing to suggest he’s in danger of going back under the knife to address the current issue but it adds another reason for the Astros to be particularly cautious as they navigate any bumps in his recovery process.
McCullers has proven a very effective pitcher when healthy. He owns a career 3.48 ERA in 718 2/3 regular season innings and has a nearly identical 3.47 mark over 72 2/3 postseason frames. He allowed only 2.27 earned runs per nine innings over his eight regular season starts last year. McCullers’ upper mid-rotation form led the Astros to sign him to a five-year, $85MM extension in March 2021. That deal covers the 2022-26 campaigns. He’s making $15.25MM this season and will be paid $17MM annually over the next three years.
His absence is one of a number of rotation issues for the Astros. Houston lost Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery earlier this month. José Urquidy is battling shoulder discomfort and might not be back until around the All-Star Break. Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have been fantastic, but the injuries have forced Houston to lean on depth options like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak at the back of the staff. There’s virtually no experienced depth in the organization beyond that quintet, so the rotation figures to be a deadline target area for Brown and his front office.
Lack Of Depth Hampers Astros' Six-Man Rotation Plan
The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule. However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain. Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.
Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia’s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery. The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut. Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.
Lance McCullers Jr. Could Return "Somewhere Closer To The All-Star Break"
- The Astros believe Lance McCullers Jr. can return “probably somewhere closer to the All-Star break, or after,” GM Dana Brown said in a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 AM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). There’s still some fluidity “depending on whether we can get him built up to start,” Brown noted. While not the clearest of timelines, it does represent some kind of target for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a forearm strain early in Spring Training. Jose Urquidy is also tentatively expected to return from the injured list around the All-Star break, which could give the Astros a badly needed one-two boost to their depleted rotation.
Astros To Activate Jose Altuve
The Astros announced Friday that All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve will be reinstated from the injured list prior to tonight’s series opener against the Athletics. Altuve has not yet played in a game during the regular season after suffering a broken thumb when he was hit by a pitch during the World Baseball Classic. While that fracture ultimately required surgery, Altuve was not placed on the 60-day injured list, meaning Houston won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man move to reinstate Altuve.
The original timetable on Altuve was a two-month recovery period from the surgery, plus some rehab work after that. General manager Dana Brown has said recently, however, that Altuve was ahead of schedule. He’ll indeed return just shy of two months after undergoing surgery on March 22 (and two months, to the day, since the injury itself occurred). He’s played in five minor league rehab games between Double-A and Triple-A, and although he’s gone just 2-for-22 in that time, he and the team clearly feel he’s in a good enough place to return to the big league lineup.
Altuve, 33, had a down year during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but has since rebounded to elite levels of performance. Over the past two seasons, he’s batted a combined .288/.368/.510 with 59 home runs and 23 steals — including a sensational .300/.387/.533 output in 2022.
In place of Altuve, the Astros have primarily leaned on utilityman Mauricio Dubon, who has exceeded any and all expectations since taking the reins at second base. The former Red Sox/Brewers prospect and Giants utilityman, acquired from San Francisco in a trade for catcher Michael Papierski last May, has taken 156 turns at the plate and turned in a .309/.333/.389 batting line with ten doubles, a triple, three steals and above-average glovework in the field.
Altuve will take over the lion’s share of playing time at second base, but Dubon’s performance has surely been impressive enough that manager Dusty Baker will frequently work him into the lineup at other spots. In addition to his work at second base, Dubon has big league experience at shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. He figures to spell Altuve and other Astros regulars while moving around the diamond going forward.
The return of Altuve should be a jolt for an Astros lineup that has been surprisingly been below-average. Houston ranks 25th in the Majors with 38 home runs and is tied for 16th with 191 runs scored. Astros hitters rank 16th in batting average (.244), 21st in on-base percentage (.312) and perhaps most surprisingly, 27th in slugging percentage (.377). They’ve received no production whatsoever out of Jose Abreu, who inked a three-year deal worth $58.5MM this winter, and they’ve yet to get a single game out of Michael Brantley, who’s spent the year on the injured list.
A healthy Altuve would certainly lift the Astros’ production across the board, though only time will tell how quickly he can bounce back from that thumb surgery. The eight-time All-Star, six-time Silver Slugger and three-time American League batting champion is in the penultimate season of a $151MM contract extension he signed prior to the 2018 season. He’s being paid $26MM in 2023 and is slated to earn the same salary in 2024 before becoming a free agent — although Brown has said on record multiple times that he hopes to eventually extend Altuve and keep in Houston for the entirety of his career.
Latest On Lance McCullers Jr.
Rotation depth has become a big story in Houston, as the Astros have lost Jose Urquidy until roughly the All-Star break due to shoulder discomfort and Luis Garcia for the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. This makes Lance McCullers Jr.’s recovery from a forearm strain all the more important to the Astros’ plans, yet it still isn’t clear exactly when the right-hander might be able to return. Manager Dusty Baker told the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner and other reporters that he is “not sure exactly when” McCullers might face live batters as part of his rehab, “but we just hope he doesn’t have any setbacks that would take him backwards.”
Because McCullers’ injury took place so early in Spring Training, it’s been a long process for the righty in both getting healthy and then rebuilding his arm strength. McCullers told Lerner and company that he threw around 35 pitches as part of a bullpen session today, tossing three different pitches with plans to add a cutter during his next bullpen, tentatively slated for Tuesday. McCullers has yet to throw any off-speed pitchers off a mound, but that next step might come next weekend, as he is already throwing his off-speed repertoire while working on flat ground. Though the Astros can retroactively shift McCullers to the 60-day injured list if necessary, his initial placement on the 15-day IL provided an early indication that the club hopes he can return before the end of May.
Astros Shut Down Michael Brantley Due To Shoulder Inflammation
Astros outfielder Michael Brantley was diagnosed with inflammation in his surgically repaired right shoulder, skipper Dusty Baker told reporters this evening (relayed by Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle). The veteran hitter will be shut down for an indeterminate period of time.
It’s an obvious setback that’ll keep him from making his season debut as expected. The Astros had hinted last weekend that Brantley could be back in the lineup early in the week. That didn’t come to fruition, and while the Astros were typically reticent with any substantive injury updates, they announced that Brantley had left the team for further evaluation a couple days ago. That examination apparently revealed the new concern.
Brantley hasn’t appeared in a major league game in over ten months. His last appearance came on June 26, 2022. Brantley landed on the injured list with a shoulder problem and underwent season-ending surgery to repair a labrum tear in August. He hit free agency but returned for a fifth season in Houston on a one-year, $12MM guarantee over the winter. The contract contains up to $4MM in additional plate appearance incentives, beginning at 400 trips to the dish.
Unfortunately, the five-time All-Star hasn’t been able to get back to the diamond yet. He opened this season on the IL as he continued working back from the shoulder procedure. Houston sent him on a rehab stint with Triple-A Sugar Land on April 23. Brantley played in nine games and tallied 37 plate appearances for the Space Cowboys. That appeared to set him up for a major league return until the shoulder inflammation that arose on the cusp of his reinstatement.
Houston had planned for Brantley and Yordan Alvarez to split their reps between left field and designated hitter. Alvarez has divided his time almost evenly between the two positions, appearing 16 times at DH and on 15 occasions in left. Corey Julks and David Hensley have picked up the most extra playing time in Brantley’s absence. Neither rookie hitter has performed well. Julks carries a .260/.265/.365 batting line, while Hensley is hitting .145/.244/.203.
The Astros have also had to weather an injury to center fielder Chas McCormick, pushing Jake Meyers into the lineup a bit more than anticipated. McCormick was activated after a month-long IL stint on Monday but has only played once since then as he’s experienced renewed back discomfort.
Jose Altuve To Begin Rehab Assignment
Astros second baseman and franchise face Jose Altuve is set to begin a rehab assignment this evening with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land. Altuve has been on the injured list all season after undergoing surgery on his right thumb after suffering an injury during the World Baseball Classic this spring. Though Altuve was initially expected to miss at least the first two months of the season, his rehab process gone quite well, allowing him to begin a rehab assignment somewhat ahead of schedule.
That’s great news for the Astros, who have scuffled to a 19-18 record in the early going this season, behind both the Rangers and Angels in the AL West. While Mauricio Dubon has filled in adequately at second base during Altuve’s absence, his .287/.306/.357 slash line in 134 plate appearances this season pales in comparison to the .300/.387/.533 line Altuve put up last season en route to the third top-5 finish in AL MVP award voting of his career. Houston is certainly hoping their 33-year-old superstar can jog a lineup whose .672 OPS as a team ranks bottom three in the majors.
