Tigers Sign Framber Valdez To Three-Year Deal
Feb. 10: Detroit has officially announced the Valdez signing. He’ll earn a base salary of $17.5MM in 2026, $37.5MM 2027, and $35MM in 2028. Valdez can opt out after 2027. The deal also includes a $40MM mutual option for 2029 with a $5MM buyout. Valdez’ $20MM signing bonus is entirely deferred, with payments not starting until 2030.
Feb. 4: The Tigers land the offseason’s top remaining free agent, reportedly agreeing to a three-year deal with Framber Valdez that guarantees $115MM. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the star left-hander to opt out after the second season. It contains a $20MM signing bonus and an unspecified amount of deferred money. Valdez is represented by Octagon.
Valdez reunites with A.J. Hinch and gives the Tigers a lethal 1-2 pairing at the top of the rotation. He’ll slot behind Tarik Skubal atop a starting staff that suddenly looks like one of the best in the American League. They’ll be followed by Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize if everyone gets through camp healthy. That’d push KBO signee Drew Anderson into a swing role, while second-year righty Troy Melton can either pitch out of the bullpen or wait in Triple-A for a rotation spot to open.
The Skubal-Valdez pairing may only be together for one season, as the two-time defending Cy Young winner is a year away from what should be a record-setting free agent contract. Skubal and the club went to a hearing this morning that’ll determine whether he makes $19MM or $32MM for his final year under club control. The arbitrators will not reveal their decision until tomorrow, and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News confirms that neither the Tigers nor Skubal’s camp are aware yet of which way they’ll rule. The Valdez pickup is an independent decision.
It’s the kind of win-now strike for which much of the Detroit fanbase has waited all offseason. The Tigers had a fairly conservative trade deadline, and their biggest moves before tonight had been retaining Flaherty on a $20MM player option and Gleyber Torres via the $22.025MM qualifying offer. They also brought back setup man Kyle Finnegan on a two-year deal and added Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen on one-year contracts. They’d done a decent job building depth but without pushing the chips in for an impact player in what could be Skubal’s final season in the Motor City.
Valdez brings the ceiling that Detroit’s other acquisitions had lacked. He’s a two-time All-Star who has finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in three of the past four seasons. Valdez worked his way from an unheralded amateur signee to the big leagues in 2018. He spent his first two seasons working in a swing role for an Astros club managed by Hinch. Valdez moved into the rotation permanently during the shortened 2020 campaign and has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last six years.
The southpaw has posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each season since he became a full-time starter. He has been exceptionally durable as well, only twice landing on the injured list in his MLB career. He fractured his left ring finger when he was hit by a comebacker in Spring Training 2021. He was back from that injury by the end of May. His only other IL stint was a two-week absence for elbow inflammation early in ’24. He returned without issue and wound up making 29 starts between the regular season and playoffs.
Valdez is tied for 14th in starts and ranks fifth with 973 innings dating back to 2020. He has a cumulative 3.23 ERA in that time. That includes sub-3.00 showings in 2022 and ’24. Valdez was among the most consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB — at least until the second half of his walk year. He posted an earned run average between 2.82 and 3.45 in each season between 2021-24. He topped 175 innings in each of the latter three years.
For the first half of last season, Valdez was on a similar pace. He took a 2.75 ERA over 121 frames into the All-Star Break. Valdez came out of the Break with two more quality starts and was sitting on a 2.62 ERA (a top 10 mark among qualifiers) as August arrived. He picked a tough time for arguably the worst couple months of his career. Valdez was blitzed for a 6.05 ERA with a dramatically reduced 17.7% strikeout rate over his final 10 starts. His sinker velocity dipped slightly, and opponents teed off on it in August and September. There’s no indication that he was tipping pitches, and it seems like the issue was mostly poor execution.
Valdez also found himself at the center of controversy during a start against the Yankees on September 2. Two pitches after giving up a grand slam to Trent Grisham, he hit catcher César Salazar in the chest with a 93 MPH sinker on a cross-up. Salazar was clearly expecting a breaking ball and didn’t have time to react to the fastball. Valdez didn’t check on the catcher in the moment. Salazar was not hurt and finished the game without issue.
The pitcher denied that the cross-up was intentional. Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the incident, saying he pressed the wrong button on his PitchCom. Even if that’s the case, the pitcher’s seeming lack of concern on the mound made for poor optics. Valdez said postgame that he had apologized to his battery mate.
Did that have any impact on his market value? It’s impossible to know from the outside, though one imagines some teams asked Valdez about the incident during the free agent process. It’s worth noting that a Detroit team managed by his former skipper is the one that eventually signed him, so it seems they don’t have any concerns about his makeup or clubhouse presence.
The late-season dip in production and Valdez’s age were probably bigger factors in his extended free agent stay. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage were in line with his career marks. It’s a solid strikeout and walk profile, but his game has always been built more around ground-balls. He has a career 62% grounder rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 58.6% clip last season, the third-highest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings.
It’s not the whiff-heavy approach that someone like Dylan Cease brought to the table this offseason, though Valdez’s statistical profile isn’t that dissimilar from that of Max Fried. They’re both ground-ball specialists who sit in the mid-90s with a sinker that leads the profile. Fried commanded an eight-year, $218MM contract last winter. The biggest difference is that came in advance of his age-31 season, while Valdez turned 32 in November.
Although a one-year age gap might not seem like much, teams have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to free agent pitchers at 32. Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell are the only pitchers that age or older to command five-plus years since 2011. They’d all had at least one Cy Young on their résumés by that point. Valdez’s inconsistent finish essentially took a six-year contract off the table. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. That he remained unsigned into February made it increasingly apparent that a five-year contract wasn’t going to be out there.
On the surface, Valdez seems to have done fairly well despite signing a week before the beginning of Spring Training. The deal’s true value can’t really be known until the extent of the deferrals are reported, however. The sticker price comes with a massive $38.33MM average annual value that’d rank 10th all time. The net present value will be reduced to at least some extent by the deferred money.
Regardless of the contract breakdown, this easily goes down as Scott Harris’ boldest free agent move in his four years running baseball operations. It’s Detroit’s first nine-figure investment since the ill-fated Javier Baez deal, which was signed under former GM Al Avila. The Harris front office hadn’t gone beyond $35MM on a free agent. That was their two-year contract to re-sign Flaherty almost exactly a year ago. There are some parallels with Valdez in terms of waiting out the market to get a high-end starter for short term, but this is obviously a much more significant investment.
The Tigers ran a $188MM competitive balance tax payroll last season. They’re going to top that this year, though the extent isn’t clear. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number around $237MM while penciling in the midpoint of the arbitration filing figures as a placeholder for Skubal. The arbitrators don’t have that luxury, meaning that CBT estimate will change by $6.5MM in one direction or another. It’s also using the base $38.33MM annual value for Valdez, which overshoots the actual number to an unknown extent until the deferral breakdown comes out.
Detroit also forfeits draft capital because Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros. They’re a revenue sharing recipient so it’s the lowest penalty, their third-highest pick in the 2026 draft. That’s currently slated to be their Competitive Balance Round B selection, which is 69th overall. The Tigers could look to trade that pick — Competitive Balance selections are the only ones that can be traded — rather than losing it as the compensatory pick. They’d then forfeit their third-round selection (#98 overall), but another team might be more willing to give up something of value for the higher draft choice and accompanying slot value that makes it worthwhile for Detroit to lose the third-rounder.
Houston never had any interest in meeting Valdez’s asking price. As luxury tax payors, they receive a compensation pick after the fourth round. That’ll land around 133rd overall. Houston traded for Mike Burrows and signed Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss to backfill the rotation depth, even if they’re unlikely to replace the ceiling that Valdez brought.
The Blue Jays, Orioles and Pirates were recently linked to Valdez. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins surprisingly jumped in the mix as well. He was probably a unique target for a Toronto club that already runs six deep in the rotation. Baltimore could pivot to a mid-tier starter like Zac Gallen (the last unsigned player who declined a QO), Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. A mid-rotation arm is also possible for Pittsburgh. At the very least, the Bucs figure to add a fifth starter for a few million dollars. Minnesota has a solid rotation but reportedly kicked the tires on a Freddy Peralta trade as well, seemingly staying on the periphery of the market for a potential impact arm.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the three-year, $115MM agreement with the opt-out after year two. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $20MM bonus.
Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.
Astros Continue To Seek Left-Handed Outfielder In Paredes Talks
Astros pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training tomorrow. The team’s roster remains jumbled as camp is soon to get underway. They’re still heavily right-handed and have an arguable surplus of infielders with an unimposing outfield mix.
Trading an infielder, especially Isaac Paredes, has been the most speculated avenue to balancing the roster. General manager Dana Brown has repeatedly said the Astros aren’t motivated to do so. Brown has pointed to the impact that Paredes had on Houston’s lineup before he suffered a significant hamstring strain midway through his first season with the club. The Astros are only a year removed from acquiring him as an instrumental piece in their return for Kyle Tucker, feeling that his pull-heavy approach from the right side would play well with the short left field at Houston’s Daikin Park. That proved to be the case, as Paredes hit 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 slash in 102 games.
Even as team personnel have struck a public tone that they’re happy with their infield depth, it seems they’ve been more on board with the trade route behind the scenes. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported last week that the Astros were discussing Paredes with upwards of five teams, including the Pirates and Red Sox. Rome wrote in a column at The Athletic this morning that they’ve intensified efforts to find a match on the trade front. Houston continues to pursue a left-handed hitting outfielder as part of any potential return, Rome adds.
A handful of recent moves could make that less likely. They reportedly kicked around a three-team framework that would have involved acquiring Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. That didn’t come to fruition and he’s now a Mariner. The Red Sox have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa and traded for Caleb Durbin from the Brewers, which seemingly fills out their infield. Pittsburgh signed Marcell Ozuna to a $12MM free agent contract to add a right-handed power bat. They’re still looking to upgrade over Jared Triolo at third base, but it’s unclear if they’re interested in accommodating Paredes’ $9.35MM salary.
Speculatively, the Brewers may be the best on-paper fit after the Durbin trade. Milwaukee isn’t likely to part with Sal Frelick, but center fielder Garrett Mitchell or corner bat Tyler Black are left-handed hitters who could play the outfield in Houston. The Twins have an uncertain corner infield mix and some expendable lefty outfield bats (e.g. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach). The Guardians have a heavily left-handed first base and outfield mix and desperately need a right-handed power bat. They could offer someone like George Valera if they’re willing to reinvest any of the money they saved by restructuring José Ramírez’s contract into the 2026 payroll.
The Padres are looking for another corner infielder and could certainly use Paredes at first base, though they don’t have any lefty-hitting outfielders of significance to offer. (Jackson Merrill obviously isn’t getting traded.) That’d also be a drawback in talks with Pittsburgh even if they’re willing to take on the money. The Astros aren’t taking the Bryan Reynolds contract. Pittsburgh probably wouldn’t view Paredes as enough of an upgrade over Spencer Horwitz to relinquish five years of control on Horwitz even if the Astros felt he could play a reasonable left field. There’s always the possibility of looping in a third team to try to balance value, but the direct trade scenarios involving Paredes are tougher to align than they were a week or two ago.
Trading Paredes would create some payroll flexibility for a Houston team that is right up against a $244MM luxury tax line that ownership seemingly doesn’t want to cross. If they don’t find a trade partner (or anyone willing to pick up a notable portion of the Christian Walker contract in a salary dump), he’d project as a multi-positional infielder behind Walker, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Yordan Alvarez will get the majority of the at-bats at designated hitter.
Pirates, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes
The Pirates and Red Sox are two of “at least five teams” discussing Isaac Paredes in trade talks with the Astros, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal. This is the first time Pittsburgh has been linked to Paredes, though the two-time All-Star has been known to be a Red Sox target for much of the winter.
Boston’s quest for infield help has been one of their primary offseason storylines, with such names as Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan and many others reportedly considered as free agent or trade targets. In Donovan’s case, Rome and Rosenthal report that the Sox had some negotiations with the Astros and Cardinals about a three-team trade that would’ve sent Paredes to Boston, Donovan to Houston, and presumably a multi-player prospect package to the rebuilding Cardinals.
Instead, St. Louis opted for another three-team trade with the Mariners and Rays, with Donovan landing in Seattle. The breakdown of what the Cardinals might’ve gotten from the Astros or Red Sox isn’t known, but the Donovan deal with Tampa and the M’s netted St. Louis a recent first-round pitching prospect (Jurrangelo Cijntje), two other prospects (Tai Peete, Colton Ledbetter) and two 2026 draft picks from Competitive Balance Round B. The CBR picks are the only types of draft picks that can be traded, so the fact that the Rays and Mariners had such available selections and the Sox and Astros didn’t could have quite possibly been a factor in the Cards’ decision to accept that deal over the other three-team proposal.
Had the Cardinals been amenable to what the Red Sox and Astros offered, the deal would’ve checked off a couple of major boxes for the two AL teams. Paredes would’ve stepped right in as Boston’s everyday third baseman, adding right-handed balance to the Sox lineup and moving Marcelo Mayer into the unsettled second base mix. Donovan is known for his multi-positional versatility, but he would’ve likely been Houston’s everyday left fielder, with the Astros starting infield then settling as Carlos Correa at third base, Jeremy Pena at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base, and Christian Walker at first base. Yordan Alvarez is set for regular DH at-bats and neither Alvarez or Altuve are well-suited to left field work, so having Paredes in the fold creates something of a logjam for playing time if everyone is healthy.
Houston GM Dana Brown has repeatedly said that the Astros are fine with their infield situation, though this could be some gamesmanship at play, as recent reports suggested that the Astros may indeed still be looking to deal from their infield surplus. Rome and Rosenthal write that Paredes and Walker are both being floated in trade discussions, and “Paredes is more likely to be dealt than Walker, whose cumbersome contract and limited no-trade clause make it more difficult to move him.”
The three-year, $60MM free agent deal Walker signed last winter contains a six-team no-trade clause. Beyond the money and the no-trade protection, Walker is also entering his age-35 season, and he hit only .238/.297/.421 over 640 plate appearances (translating to a 99 wRC+) in his first season in Houston. Paredes missed almost two months of the 2025 season due to a hamstring injury but was terrific when he did play, batting .254/.352/.458 across 438 PA.
It isn’t an ideal situation for the Astros that one of their better and less-expensive players might be their most logical trade candidate. However, because Houston’s other infielders seem less likely to be moved for a variety of reasons, dealing Paredes might be the best way for Houston to both alleviate the infield surplus, and add a much-needed left-handed bat to the outfield.
As Rome and Rosenthal note, the most obvious way for the Astros and Red Sox to address their twin needs would simply be to make a deal with each other, since Boston has a plethora of left-handed hitting outfielders. Jarren Duran has been viewed as the outfielder the Sox may be most willing to move, though Rome/Rosenthal write that the Astros prefer Wilyer Abreu over Duran, in part because of price. Abreu doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until next winter, while Duran is making $7.7MM in 2026 and his salaries will continue to rise over his remaining two arb years.
It remains to be seen if the Astros and Red Sox could finally line up on a deal themselves, or if perhaps another third party could get involved to help facilitate a trade. There’s also the possibility that Houston could move Paredes elsewhere entirely, given the widespread interest in his services.
The Pirates and Astros already joined forces on a prominent trade back in December, when the two clubs and the Rays engaged in a three-team swap. The Buccos traded from their rotation depth in moving Mike Burrows to Houston in that deal, while Pittsburgh bolstered its lineup by acquiring Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum. Between that trade, the Ryan O’Hearn signing, and the deal with the Red Sox that brought Jhostynxon Garcia into the outfield picture, the Pirates have made a priority of adding some much-needed hitting help to the roster.
Landing Paredes would arguably be the biggest move of all for the Pirates’ offense, and it would fill a hole at third base. Jared Triolo is Pittsburgh’s projected starter at the hot corner, and while Triolo is a plus defender, he has hit only .221/.303/.334 over his last 822 PA in 2024-25. In terms of how the Bucs could meet Houston’s needs, the Pirates have multiple outfielders who are either lefty swingers or switch-hitters, yet none seem like exactly a fit. Oneil Cruz likely isn’t going anywhere, Bryan Reynolds is probably too pricey for the Astros, and neither Mangum or Jack Suwinski would provide clear offensive help.
What other teams could speculatively be in on Paredes? Many contenders are already set at the corner infield slots, though if Paredes is viewed as an upgrade over an incumbent, a deal could be swung with a third team involved. On paper, the Brewers, Tigers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Athletics stand out as contenders or would-be contenders who could stand to improve at at least one of the first or third base positions.
Astros Notes: Paredes, Walker, Smith, McCullers
The Astros have seemingly had too many infielders all winter but general manager Dana Brown has consistently downplayed the possibility of a trade, doing so again this week. Privately, the club may be less certain about holding everyone. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that some people within the team are questioning the viability of carrying everyone on the roster and that a trade is becoming more realistic.
Last year, the Astros had Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first, at least for the first half of the season. Paredes suffered a significant hamstring strain in July, which prompted the Astros to acquire Carlos Correa from the Twins. Going into 2026, they project to have Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base, Correa at third and then either Walker or Paredes at first.
Putting Paredes at the keystone and using Altuve in the outfield is generally seen as less than ideal. Altuve was bad in the outfield last year. Paredes hasn’t played second base since 2023 and there’s skepticism about how viable he would be if put back there again, though the Astros will have him do some drills there during camp.
Most of the rumors have therefore involved the Astros trading either Walker or Paredes and having the other cover first base. Walker is coming off a bit of a down year and is owed $20MM annually for another two years, making him hard to trade, especially since he’s about to turn 35. Paredes would have value but his lower salary is appealing to an Astros club looking to limbo under the luxury tax. He’ll make $9.35MM this year, less than half of Walker. He’ll get a bump in 2027 but would still be well under Walker’s $20MM salary.
If a trade doesn’t come together, manager Joe Espada would be left to find playing time for everyone by scattering off-days around the group. Using the designated hitter spot will be a challenge because the club wants to have Yordan Alvarez in there as often as possible. Though Brown has downplayed the rumors over and over again, there’s still time for a trade to come together.
Rome also notes that the Astros plan to give Cam Smith some center field reps in spring training. Smith came up as a third baseman but the Astros moved him to right field last year so that he would have a better path to playing time. He earned a big league job and showed some promise but his .236/.312/.358 batting line was subpar.
The bar for passable offense is a bit lower in center field, where teams often prioritize defense. Smith graded out well in right field last year, getting credited with 12 Defensive Runs Saved and one above par by Outs Above Average. His sprint speed was ranked in the 95th percentile last year, so he should have the wheels to move to center. The Astros considered some center field time for Smith last year but he didn’t get any game time there.
If Smith can hack it up the middle, that could open up a few possibilities for the club. They have been looking to add a left-handed bat to the lineup and could perhaps slot someone into right field. They have Jesús Sánchez on the roster but he struggled late last year and has been in some trade rumors. Center fielder Jake Meyers has also been in trade rumors and perhaps the club could feel more comfortable pulling the trigger there if Smith seems viable in the middle spot.
Turning to the pitching staff, Espada noted this week that Lance McCullers Jr. would be built up a starter in camp, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. McCullers was a starter for most of last year but was moved to the bullpen in August. Injuries led to him missing the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year but his velocity was down and he posted a 6.51 earned run average on the year.
Whether he can turn things around and get back on track is anyone’s guess. He will be further removed from his lengthy injury odyssey but the results in 2025 weren’t encouraging. The Astros may have a six-man rotation for a decent amount of 2026. McCullers projects to be in there with Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss, with guys like Nate Pearson, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon and Kai-Wei Teng also on the roster. Over the course of the season, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter will be trying to come back from Tommy John surgeries performed in 2025. McCullers is going into the final season of the extension he signed in 2021 and will be paid $17MM this year.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Astros, Jack Winkler Agree To Minor League Contract
The Astros are in agreement with infielder Jack Winkler on a minor league contract, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 27-year-old elected minor league free agency after being outrighted by the Marlins at the end of last season. He’s represented by the Ball Players Agency.
Winkler was a 10th-round draftee by the Athletics in 2021. The University of San Francisco product played four seasons in the A’s system, peaking in Double-A. Miami grabbed him in the Triple-A phase of last offseason’s Rule 5 draft. Winkler got a few looks as the final player on Clayton McCullough’s bench over the course of the season.
He appeared in 14 games, starting four of them in the middle infield. Winkler went 4-16 with a stolen base and committed two errors in 44 1/3 innings of defensive work. He otherwise spent the season at Triple-A Jacksonville, where he hit .225/.299/.333 with a 28% strikeout rate in his first action at the level. Winkler was an asset on the bases in the minors, stealing 25 bags in 76 games without getting thrown out. He played mostly third base in Triple-A with sporadic action up the middle.
Houston is likely to start Winkler back in Triple-A as a right-handed infield depth piece. He has been a below-average hitter throughout his minor league career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be in the running for an Opening Day roster spot even if the Astros trade an infielder during Spring Training. Winkler has options remaining and can bounce between Houston and Triple-A Sugar Land if he earns a 40-man roster spot at any point.
Astros Outright J.P. France
The Astros announced that right-hander J.P. France cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. He had been designated for assignment a week ago when Houston acquired Kai-Wei Teng from the Giants. France will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
France, 31 in April, had an exciting major league debut a few years back. He gave the Astros 136 1/3 innings in 2023, allowing 3.83 earned runs per nine. However, the past two seasons have been mostly lost. Shoulder problems plagued him early in 2024 and eventually required surgery, which put him on the shelf for most of 2025. He only made seven big league appearances over those two seasons. He was healthy by the end of 2025 but posted a 6.59 ERA in Triple-A.
The lengthy injury situation and poor results last year bumped France off the roster. He still has one option remaining but the other 29 clubs still passed on the chance to give him a 40-man roster spot. Players have the right to reject an outright assignment if they have at least three years of service or a previous career outright but France doesn’t qualify on either account. That means he sticks with the Astros as non-roster depth.
Houston goes into 2026 with a rotation that looks to have a lot of talent but also question marks behind Hunter Brown. They will hope to get more from Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr., who each had underwhelming seasons in 2025 after lengthy injury absences. Tatsuya Imai will be making his major league debut after years pitching in Japan. Ryan Weiss is coming to North America after a decent stretch in South Korea. Mike Burrows still has less than 100 big league innings.
France will try to position himself to get the call if the guys in that group struggle or get hurt. He will have a steep path back to a roster spot, however, as the Astros have Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon and Teng on the roster as optionable rotation depth. Over the course of the season, some guys will get hurt but Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter will be working back from surgeries performed last year.
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images
Astros GM Dana Brown Discusses Infield Outlook
Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this afternoon at the team’s media luncheon. As he has throughout the offseason, the GM downplayed the possibility of trading from his infield while noting that they’re still looking for ways to add a left-handed bat.
“If we can trade a guy to potentially get a left-handed bat or something like that, we’ll consider it,” Brown told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “But I think right now we have a really good infield. We do have the depth. We have a long season, 162. We have some veterans that we’d like to give some breaks during the course of a season, and to have this depth is good.”
That’s the tone Brown has struck all winter. He said as early as the GM Meetings that they weren’t motivated to trade Christian Walker and had no interest in moving Isaac Paredes. He again spoke about those corner infielders today. “Right now, both of them are still part of our roster. We have plans for both of them to play. So right now, the plan is for both of them to be there,” Brown said.
Walker and Paredes are in very different spots in terms of trade value. Walker is signed for $20MM annually for his age 35-36 seasons. He’s coming off a .238/.297/.421 showing with a drop in his defensive grades in his first year in Houston. The Astros would likely need to pay down more than half the contract to move Walker. He’s unlikely to fetch a significant left-handed bat no matter how much of the money they cover. Walker did connect on 27 homers and had an alright second half, so the Astros probably don’t want to move him solely to save a fraction of the contract.
Paredes would have much bigger appeal. He’s making $9.35MM after reaching an arbitration settlement this afternoon. The Astros don’t have an obvious spot for him in the starting infield after reacquiring Carlos Correa to play third base while Paredes was injured last summer. Correa obviously has ample shortstop experience but isn’t going to play there often on a team with Jeremy Peña. Houston plans to keep Jose Altuve primarily at second base. Manager Joe Espada has said all winter that they want to keep Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter as much as possible.
That leaves Paredes as a multi-positional infielder for now, though all it takes is one injury to change that. They’d find ways to get his bat into the lineup on a regular basis even if everyone’s healthy. Walker, Altuve and Correa are all in their 30s and could benefit from more rest than the team was able to provide last season. Paredes is coming off a significant hamstring strain that cost him most of the second half, so early-season off days wouldn’t be the worst thing for him either.
The Red Sox are the team that has been most frequently tied to Paredes in trade rumors. They haven’t replaced Alex Bregman in the infield and have a pair of controllable lefty-hitting outfielders, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, who would fit Houston’s biggest lineup need. It’d be a surprise to see the Sox part with either Duran or Abreu for Paredes — at least not a one-for-one deal. Paredes has the shortest window of contractual control among that trio. Boston also reportedly prefers Marcelo Mayer at the hot corner and is ideally looking to add a plus defensive second baseman, which isn’t Paredes’ specialty. Even if there’s a workable framework, it’d probably require Houston sending more talent to the Sox to even the package.
Former first-round pick Brice Matthews is likely headed back to Triple-A to begin the year. He hit 17 homers and stole 41 bases while batting .260/.371/.458 at the level a year ago. Matthews struck out at an alarming 28% rate, however, and he fanned in 20 of his first 47 MLB plate appearances. Baseball America grades him as the #3 prospect in a weak Houston farm system. He still has a pair of minor league options but could theoretically be a trade chip if the Astros don’t deal any of their veteran infielders.
Brown noted that the Astros are still evaluating free agent possibilities to add a lefty bat as well. They’re within a few million dollars of the $244MM luxury tax threshold which owner Jim Crane is reportedly reluctant to surpass. Even a role player like Mike Tauchman or Adam Frazier could put them too close to that mark to leave the front office with enough space for in-season additions. Maybe there’s a workable deal for a pre-arbitration lefty hitter who could be squeezed out by another club. Daniel Schneemann, Robert Hassell III or Yanquiel Fernández (the latter of whom should currently be on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Rockies) are a few speculative options who’d likely be available at a minimal cost.
Blue Jays Have Continued Interest In Framber Valdez
The Blue Jays remain interested in top free agent starter Framber Valdez, report Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Toronto reportedly met with Valdez at the GM Meetings back in early November. That predated their seven-year, $210MM contract with Dylan Cease, so it was hardly a given that the Jays were still involved.
Valdez is arguably the last impact player available on the open market. He’s certainly the highest-upside player remaining. There’s a decent supply of unsigned starting pitching, but most other players fit in the middle or back of the rotation. That includes Zac Gallen, the only other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a high-end #2 starter and has ace potential.
The southpaw finished top 10 in Cy Young voting each season from 2022-24. He looked on that pace through the All-Star Break last year, turning in a 2.75 earned run average over 19 starts. Things went off the rails in the second half, as Valdez surrendered a 5.20 ERA over his final 12 starts. He also had the much publicized cross-up incident with third catcher César Salazar, as he came under fire for not showing much immediate concern after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials maintained they did not believe Valdez intentionally crossed the catcher up, and Salazar did his best to downplay the situation publicly.
In any case, Valdez hit the market coming off arguably his worst two-month stretch in years. He’s entering his age-32 season, an age at which five-plus year deals for free agent starting pitchers are rare. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only pitchers at 32 or older to sign for five years within the past decade. It’s not clear what Valdez sought at the beginning of the offseason, but it’s generally not a great omen for players’ markets if they’re unsigned into February. A short-term deal with opt-outs probably isn’t as appealing for Valdez as it would be for a younger free agent.
The Jays already run six deep in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce and José Berríos. They’re broadly involved on every top free agent, so it’s possible they’re circling back to see if Valdez’s market has dropped to a level at which they feel the value is too good to ignore. Bieber has battled some elbow fatigue. Yesavage had some injury questions in college and just completed his first full professional season. Ponce is something of an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30MM if they didn’t think he could be an effective starter.
Toronto could certainly justify taking this group into the season, but they’re evidently still kicking around rotation possibilities. Heyman said on an MLB Network appearance this afternoon that the Jays have some amount of interest in bringing Max Scherzer back. That’d obviously be a much cheaper move than even a short-term deal for Valdez, but Scherzer isn’t as clear of an upgrade over Toronto’s back-end arms.
RosterResource calculates the Jays’ luxury tax payroll around $310MM. That’s already a franchise record and lands them in the top tier of penalization. The Jays are near the Yankees and Phillies to round out a clear top five in projected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would probably push them close to $340MM in CBT commitments, which would take them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They’d pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any further free agent contracts. A hypothetical $30MM salary for Valdez would add another $27MM to their tax bill and amount to a $57MM investment overall.
Valdez comes attached to draft compensation, though that penalty isn’t as severe for the Jays because they already signed Cease. Toronto punted their second-round pick and their compensatory pick for Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They’d give up their third and fifth rounders for Valdez, but those are each outside the top 100 overall.
Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they’ll only receive a compensation pick after round four once Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s all but inevitable, as they’ve never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits team personnel from explicitly saying they’re not pursuing specific players, but Houston GM Dana Brown reiterated this afternoon that the Astros “haven’t had any conversations lately” with the pitcher’s camp (video via Jason Bristol of KHOU 11 News).
Yainer Diaz Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Astros
Yainer Diaz won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Francys Romero. The catcher, a PRIME client, will be paid a $4.5MM salary instead of the team’s $3MM filing figure.
Diaz earns a strong payday in his first trip through the arbitration process. The benefit of the win goes beyond the extra $1.5MM he’ll make than if he’d lost the hearing. It also sets a higher baseline for his final two years. The process is designed for players’ salaries to climb as they get closer to free agency, so there’ll be compounding benefits to today’s result.
The 27-year-old Diaz is one of the better catchers in the sport. He’s a career .279/.305/.454 hitter in nearly 1600 plate appearances. Baseball Reference has valued him around three wins above replacement in each of his first three seasons. He has topped 20 doubles in each and is coming off his second 20-homer campaign. Diaz hit .256/.284/.417 with 20 longballs and 70 runs driven in across 143 games a year ago.
That included a career-high 111 starts behind the plate, plus 24 as a designated hitter. Diaz caught the seventh-most innings in MLB. They’ll need him to take a similarly heavy workload now that high-end backup Victor Caratini departed to sign a two-year deal with Minnesota. César Salazar is expected to step into the backup role.
A $1.5MM isn’t a huge difference for a team in isolation, though it takes on a little more importance for the Astros than it would for most clubs. RosterResource estimated their luxury tax payroll within the $238-240MM range depending on the hearing result. Ownership reportedly wants to remain below the $244MM base tax threshold, so this could have a modest impact on the front office’s midseason flexibility on the trade front.
Today was a strong start for the players in arbitration. Orioles righty Kyle Bradish also won his case, pushing players to 2-0 thus far. The Diaz and Bradish hearings took place yesterday. Dylan Lee and Edwin Uceta had hearings last week, though their results are being held until other comparable cases are decided. According to The Associated Press, the Blue Jays had their hearing with left-hander Eric Lauer this afternoon, though that ruling is also expected to be held for a later date. Tomorrow is the biggest date of the arbitration class, as the Tigers and Tarik Skubal are set to present their cases with a record $13MM gap between their respective filing figures.
Astros, Isaac Paredes Avoid Arbitration
1:37pm: There’s also a 2027 club option on the deal worth $13.35MM, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. If Paredes finishes top ten in MVP voting, the club option converts to a mutual option. Even if the club/mutual option is eventually not picked up, Paredes will still be under club control for 2027 via arbitration. Most teams have a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning they won’t negotiate one-year deals after the filing deadline. Most post-deadline agreement have an option tacked on to nominally adhere to this policy.
12:13pm: The Astros have avoided an arbitration hearing with infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The two parties settled on a one-year deal worth $9.35MM, landing right at the midpoint of the team’s $8.75MM submission and the $9.95MM sum submitted by Paredes’ camp at CAA. Houston and catcher Yainer Diaz had their arbitration hearing yesterday, per the Associated Press. A result is expected today.
Paredes, 27 in a few weeks, came to Houston as part of last winter’s Kyle Tucker blockbuster and enjoyed a solid year in the Astros’ infield. He missed nearly two months due to a hamstring injury but still popped 20 homers while batting .254/.352/.458 over 438 plate appearances when healthy.
While Paredes was on the shelf, Houston reacquired Carlos Correa in a deadline salary dump deal with the Twins. The ‘Stros installed Correa at the hot corner in deference to standout shortstop Jeremy Pena. Since Paredes was sidelined into late September, the Astros didn’t have to deal much with the sudden glut of position players they had, but that won’t be the case heading into 2026.
Paredes appears to be a man without a position. Correa and Pena will again man the left side of the infield. The left field experiment for Jose Altuve didn’t prove all that fruitful, and Altuve is expected back at second base for the bulk of 2026. Christian Walker‘s first year as an Astro was a disappointment, but he’s signed for two more years and owed another $40MM, so he’ll be back at first base. Yordan Alvarez will see occasional time in left field but will still take the majority of the Astros’ DH at-bats. Prospect Brice Matthews, a natural middle infielder, will likely be pushed to the outfield by the infield logjam.
All of that has led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade, though general manager Dana Brown has said repeatedly that he doesn’t feel obligated to trade from the group. Were there any interest in the remainder of Walker’s deal, perhaps that’d change things, but other clubs have understandably been unwilling to take on that $40MM on the heels of a down season for the 35-year-old.
While there’s no immediate spot for regular at-bats for Paredes, that doesn’t necessarily matter. It takes all of one injury for him to have an everyday spot in the lineup, after all, and even if the entire group stays healthy, he can play fairly regularly by spelling Correa at third, Walker at first, Altuve at second and Alvarez at DH. Correa and Alvarez, in particular, have lengthy injury histories and are prone to missing chunks of time.
This was the third of four trips through the arbitration process for Paredes, a Super Two player. He’s controlled through the 2027 season and will be owed one more arbitration raise next winter. The 27-year-old Diaz is arb-eligible for the first time this winter. He and his reps at PRIME submitted a $4.5MM figure, while the team countered at $3MM.