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Latest On Astros’ Managerial Search

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After four seasons under veteran manager Dusty Baker, in which the Astros won three division titles, two AL pennants, and one World Series, the team is on the hunt for a new skipper. Baker, who had been managing on and off since 1993, announced his retirement following Houston’s loss in Game 7 of the ALCS. Presumably, the Astros always knew this was a possibility – Baker’s contract was up at the end of the season – but the manager didn’t tell the team his decision until last week. Thus, it comes as little surprise that general manager Dana Brown will take his time searching for a replacement.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com), Brown revealed the team has no timeframe to hire a manager. In fact, they have not yet begun to interview candidates. “We’re not going to rush through this,” he explained.

Brown’s comments conflict with a statement owner and chairman Jim Crane made a few days ago, when he said, “We’ll work on [hiring a new manager] quickly… We’ll have a fluid search and work as fast as we can to get somebody in place” (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

Nevertheless, it makes sense why the Astros aren’t hurrying this decision. Baker, 74, won’t be easy to replace. While his choices didn’t always sit well with more analytically inclined fans, he brought decades of experience to the table. He earned his first managerial gig before most of today’s active managers had even begun their playing careers. Moreover, he is widely respected and beloved around the game for his people skills and unique style of leadership.

As Brown said, “I’m looking for someone with some leadership ability, someone that could run the clubhouse, of course, looking for someone with great feel for players and managing players.” In other words, he’s looking for another Dusty Baker.

A long and drawn-out hiring process isn’t out of character for the Astros, who waited until January last offseason to hire Brown as their new GM. Crane played an unusually influential role in the team’s decision-making over the first two and a half months of the offseason, as did front office adviser Jeff Bagwell. In the same vein, Crane and Bagwell will reportedly have an “immense say” in choosing the next manager of the Astros, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

While Brown insisted that he has no timeline, he thinks it’s possible he could set up interviews during the general manager’s meetings, which begin November 7. The team is clearly in the preliminary stages of the hiring process, but they are widely expected to consider bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus. More recently, they were linked to former Brewers manager Craig Counsell, whose contract with Milwaukee officially expired on Tuesday. McTaggart notes that third base coach Omar López could be another contender.

Astros Interested In Craig Counsell

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With Craig Counsell already garnering interesting from the Mets and Guardians, it only makes sense that another team with a managerial vacancy would also look into the soon-to-be free agent skipper.  According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Astros “have expressed interest” in Counsell, “but it’s unclear how serious their pursuit would be.”

It could be that Houston is just doing its due diligence in checking in on Counsell, given his impressive track record over nine seasons with the Brewers.  The Astros naturally expect to contend again in 2024, so hiring a manager like Counsell who has proven he can consistently get teams into the postseason would seem like a logical way to fill the big shoes left behind by the retiring Dusty Baker.

Since it has been barely over a week since the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS and Baker announced his retirement, the club’s managerial search has yet to really kick into full gear.  Bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus are seen as two of the top potential candidates, but word has yet to filter out about what other names Houston could be considering for the job.

As for Counsell, his contract with the Brewers officially ends today, so the manager will be fully available as of Wednesday to be hired by another team.  This doesn’t mean that a decision is necessarily coming quickly, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) notes that there isn’t any known timeline Counsell might have in choosing his next job.  The potential inclusion of the Astros adds another wrinkle to a list of suitors that is already three teams deep.

The Brewers already granted the Mets and Guardians permission to interview Counsell, while Hogg hears from a source that the Brewers themselves “have begun the process of requesting interviews with potential managerial replacements.”  This is another natural due-diligence move since obviously the Crew don’t want to start a managerial search from scratch if Counsell does leave, though it does represent some “uncertainty” within Milwaukee’s front office over what Counsell’s decision will be.

By this point, it appears as though Counsell will certainly become the highest-paid manager in the sport, as it’s hard to imagine his next deal wouldn’t top the $4.5MM average annual salary Terry Francona received as the Guards’ former manager.  The Mets and owner Steve Cohen could certainly throw their financial weight around if it means bringing Counsell into the fold, but Hogg argues that the Brewers have no reason to not offer Counsell a big raise, as he was already making a $3.5MM salary.  As Hogg further notes, a manager’s salary is comparatively small in relation to the salaries that even a smaller-market team like the Brewers give to average players.

Hunter Brown, JP France Face Role Uncertainty In 2024

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The Astros figure to add injured right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back into their rotation mix in 2024, though The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that, with neither player expected to be ready for Opening Day next season, rookie right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown could have opportunities to crack the rotation again headed into Spring Training. The club figures to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy locked into four spots in the rotation, but that would leave an opening for either France or Brown, with the possibility of both if the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation to open the season.

That being said, Rome also suggests other roles for France and Brown are possible next season. In addition to noting that the Astros would benefit from the addition of a veteran start who could provide “stability” to a rotation that suffered from uneven performances in 2023, Rome also puts forth that right-hander Spencer Arrighetti could factor into the club’s rotation mix as soon as the start of next season. Arighetti, the club’s #3 prospect and top pitching prospect per MLB Pipeline, posted a 4.40 ERA in 124 2/3 innings of work split between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, his age-23 campaign.

With so many possible moving pieces, it’s likely that both Brown and France will be used in roles beyond the starting rotation, at least at some point during the 2024 season. France, in particular, is suggested by Rome as a likely candidate for a swing role that would see him move both in and out of the club’s rotation mix as necessary throughout the year. Brown, on the other hand, seems to have a firmer grip on a potential rotation spot, though Rome adds that Brown’s struggles later in the season (including a 6.72 ERA in his final 18 appearances) highlighted the work Brown still has left to do before he can be the mid-rotation arm the Astros hope he can become.

Jim Crane, Jeff Bagwell To Hold "Immense Say" In Managerial Search

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  • Dusty Baker has announced his retirement from managing, prompting the Astros to begin a managerial search. That search, of course, is still in its early stages with Houston having just been eliminated from postseason contention less than a week ago. Houston bench coach Joe Espada and former Angels and Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are both reportedly under consideration for the position, but questions remain as to who exactly will conduct the club’s managerial search. Chandler Rome of The Athletic discussed that uncertainty earlier this week, noting that owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell both wield considerable influence in the front office, even with GM Dana Brown at the helm of the baseball operations department. Rome notes that Bagwell was particularly influential in the club’s 2022-23 offseason following the departure of former GM James Click last November, while Crane was a key engineer of the Justin Verlander trade at the deadline this year. Rome indicates that the duo’s influence over baseball operations will continue with the upcoming managerial search, with each having “immense say” over the next manager alongside Brown.

AL Notes: Astros, Angels, White Sox, Tigers, Orioles

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Dusty Baker might be finished as a manager, but the baseball lifer has a job in the Astros front office anytime he wants it. Owner Jim Crane told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) that Baker is “always welcome” in the Astros organization. Meanwhile, the long-time skipper said he is “retiring from the field” but hasn’t made up his mind about what comes next (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

As for hiring a new manager to replace Baker, the Astros are just beginning their search. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests that bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus are “strong candidates.” Ausmus was a contender for the Astros GM position last offseason and the managerial opening back in 2020. Espada was another candidate in the team’s last managerial search, and he has interviewed for numerous other managing jobs in the years since. McTaggart also identified several contenders for the gig, including Ausmus, Espada, and Diamondbacks bench coach Jeff Banister.

More news from around the American League…

  • After four years on the Angels’ coaching staff (three as pitching coach), Matt Wise has accepted a new job as the bullpen coach for the White Sox, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal and Sam Blum of The Athletic. While going from pitching coach to bullpen coach might seem like a step backward, Wise was something of a sitting duck in the Angels organization. Los Angeles is looking to hire a new manager after parting ways with Phil Nevin, and that new manager will presumably want to hire a coaching staff of his own.
  • The Tigers, meanwhile, need a new first base coach. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Alfredo Amézaga will not return to A.J. Hinch’s coaching staff next season. He joined the staff ahead of the 2023 campaign after previously working as a minor league coach in the Braves organization. Amézaga is also a manager in the Mexican Winter League.
  • Finally, over in the AL East, the Orioles made some changes in their scouting and player development departments. A dozen front office staffers were promoted to new roles, including Matt Blood, the new vice president of player development and domestic scouting; Koby Perez, the new vice president of international scouting and operations; and Anthony Villa, the new director of player development (per Roch Kubatko of MASN). Blood was the previous director of player development, while Perez served as director of international scouting. Villa was the minor league hitting coordinator in 2023.

MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
  • Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
  • What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
  • Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
  • Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
  • The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

Dusty Baker To Announce Retirement Tomorrow

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Dusty Baker is retiring, the longtime manager tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. According to Nightengale, the 74-year-old informed Houston owner Jim Crane of his decision in a meeting yesterday. The Astros have scheduled a press conference for tomorrow afternoon to make the official announcement.

“I’m very grateful and thankful to Jim Crane and the Houston Astros for giving me this opportunity, and to win a championship,” Baker told Nightengale. “I felt like they’ve been good for me, and I’ve been good for them. What I really appreciate is that Jim has been totally honest and transparent with me on all things.”

The news doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. Chandler Rome and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reported in the immediate aftermath of Houston’s elimination in the ALCS that Baker had been telling those close to him he planned to move on. Baker confirmed to Nightengale that he has known for some time that he was stepping away after this season. While he no longer wants the daily grind of managerial work, Baker told Nightengale he was hopeful of landing an advisory position with an organization to remain in the game in some capacity.

It’s the conclusion of what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame career. After concluding a near 20-year MLB playing career, Baker made the jump to managing. He took over the Giants in 1993, guiding the team to 103 wins in his first season. That still left them just shy of the postseason, and a trio of subsequent losing campaigns meant Baker didn’t get his initial playoff appearance until 1997. Baker made the postseason three times in San Francisco, highlighted by a trip to the World Series in 2002.

After the decade-long run in the Bay Area, Baker moved on to the Cubs. He guided Chicago to the NLCS in his first season, although that’d be his only playoff appearance in four years. Baker led the Reds from 2008-13, winning a pair of NL Central titles. After two years away from the game, he returned to the dugout in Washington. Baker led the Nationals from 2016-17 before being dismissed and replaced by Dave Martinez.

That appeared as if it could be the end of Baker’s lengthy career. He was away from the game for consecutive seasons. Once the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme was revealed, Houston fired A.J. Hinch early in 2020. The Astros sought a veteran manager to navigate the fallout of the scandal, tabbing Baker in late January.

The tenure started slowly, as Houston went just 29-31 in the shortened regular season. That was enough to qualify for the expanded postseason, however, and the Astros clicked in October. They made the ALCS, an achievement they’d repeat in all four of Baker’s seasons at the helm. Their sluggish regular season of 2020 wasn’t a factor in any of the subsequent full schedules, as Houston topped 90 wins and claimed division titles every season from 2021-23.

The Astros advanced to the World Series in 2021, dropping a six-game set against the Braves. They repeated as AL champions after a 106-win season a year ago. Houston carried that dominance into the postseason, sweeping the Mariners and Yankees to set up a Fall Classic matchup with the Phillies. They won the series in six games, securing the franchise’s second championship. It was the final box for Baker personally, marking his first title. The club fell just shy of a third straight pennant, although it marked the 12th playoff appearance of his career.

The Astros have gone 320-226 (58.6% win percentage) since the start of 2020. Baker’s clubs have won 54% of their regular season contests over his 26-year career. His 2,183 victories rank seventh in major league history. Aside from Baker, Bruce Bochy and Terry Francona — all of whom have remained active through this year — everyone in the top 14 on the wins leaderboard has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. MLBTR congratulates Baker on an illustrious career and wishes him all the best in retirement.

Houston becomes the fifth team with a managerial vacancy. The Guardians, Mets and Angels all fired their skippers, while Bob Melvin departed the Padres to join the division-rival Giants. Craig Counsell has considered various opportunities as his contract with the Brewers expires, leaving a sixth team with some amount of uncertainty.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Claim Oliver Ortega From Twins

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Oliver Ortega off waivers from the Twins, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Ortega is on the 60-day injured list.

Ortega, 27, pitched for the Angels in 2021 and 2022 but came to the Twins last offseason via a waiver claim. Between the two clubs, he has tossed 58 major league innings over 45 appearances, posting an earned run average of 4.03 in that time.

The Twins placed Ortega on the injured list in late August due to a lumbar strain and transferred him to the 60-day injured list a few days later. There’s no 60-day injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning players have to be added back onto the 40-man roster. The Twins put Ortega on waivers instead but the Astros have swooped in to make a claim.

The Astros are likely intrigued by Ortega’s strong work in Triple-A this year, as he had an ERA of 1.82 in 34 2/3 innings at that level. He struck out 32.6% of batters faced, walked just 7.4% and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% rate. Ortega has yet to reach arbitration and has one option season remaining, allowing him to serve as a cheap depth arm with roster flexibility for the Astros.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM

* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.

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