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Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?

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The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:

The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.

This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.

In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.

The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.

Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.

Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!

Orioles Notes: Mullins, Henderson, Bradish, Rotation

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Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited Monday’s Grapefruit League contest against the Twins with discomfort in his hamstring, the team announced. Mullins drew a leadoff walk and advanced to second base on a grounder. He then walked off the field under his own power two pitches into the next at-bat. Enrique Bradfield Jr. replaced him on the bases.

Fortunately for O’s fans, it seems the situation is relatively minor. Manager Brandon Hyde called Mullins’ exit “precautionary” following the game (X link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Concern is low enough that the team isn’t even planning on performing an MRI or any other imaging to determine if there’s a more serious issue at play. Mullins is considered day-to-day for now, according to Hyde.

The 29-year-old Mullins has been a steady contributor on both sides of the ball for the Orioles over the past three seasons, although the 2023 campaign was his worst and, perhaps not coincidentally, least healthy of the three. Mullins had a pair of IL stints last season due to right groin strains, finishing out the season with a .233/.305/.416 slash (99 wRC+), 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 116 games. He missed only nine total games the two seasons prior, batting a combined .274/.339/.460 with 46 big flies and 64 steals. If there’s any sort of setback, infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo and top outfield prospect Colton Cowser are on hand as options to see time in center field.

Mateo has traditionally been a shortstop, but the team has already suggested that the wealth of infield talent on the Baltimore roster will likely push Mateo into the outfield more frequently in 2024. The fleet-footed Mateo’s primary spot in recent years, shortstop, sounds as though it’ll be handled primarily by reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson in 2024. While Henderson is capable of playing both shortstop and third base at a high level, the 22-year-old said yesterday that his playing time would be “leaning more toward shortstop” (X link via the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich).

Henderson has played shortstop, third base and (much more briefly) second base so far in the big leagues. He split his time between the two left-side infield positions nearly evenly in 2023, logging 594 innings at third base and 584 at shortstop. Defensive metrics touted his glovework at both spots, but he drew stronger marks at shortstop (particularly from Defensive Runs Saved, which pegged him at +10). Third base, then, will likely be left to a combination of Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urias and prospect Coby Mayo, though Mateo could also see time there. Current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday has been playing second base this spring, while each of Westburg and Urias can play basically anywhere in the infield. Mayo’s primary position is third base, though there’s some thought he could eventually move to first base or an outfield corner. Regardless, he’s not yet on the 40-man roster.

Of course, a substantial part of the focus in Orioles camp right now is on right-hander Kyle Bradish, who’s currently attempting a rest/rehab approach to mending a sprain in his right ulnar collateral ligament. Bradish had a platelet-rich plasma injection before the O’s even publicly announced the injury, and Weyrich writes that he’s been throwing pain-free from flat ground.

While general manager Mike Elias struck an optimistic tone, he also preached caution and declined to place a timeline on the right-hander’s potential return. Bradish himself noted that follow-up MRIs have shown “accelerated healing” of the ligament so far, Weyrich writes, though that doesn’t yet mean he’s dodged a long-term absence. Bradish has yet to throw off a mound and currently isn’t throwing at full intensity. The early results are perhaps cause for some cautious optimism, but there’s a ways to go in the process.

For the time being, it doesn’t seem as though Bradish’s injury will prompt the Orioles to make another notable acquisition. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com downplayed the possibility of the Orioles signing a big-name free agent, writing that the team appears satisfied with its depth at present. Baltimore picked up Julio Teheran on a minor league deal late last week and could give him a look early in the season, but Kubatko more specifically noted that he’d be “floored” to see the O’s pursue an opt-out-laden deal with a top free agent like Jordan Montgomery.

Kyle Bradish Diagnosed With UCL Sprain, Will Begin Season On Injured List

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Pitchers and catchers reported to camp for the Orioles today, but report date has brought unwelcome news for O’s fans. General manager Mike Elias announced to the team’s beat writers this morning that right-hander Kyle Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). He’s already received a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin a throwing progression tomorrow, but he’ll open the season on the injured list.

Elias also revealed that Gunnar Henderson is behind schedule due to an oblique injury that’ll still need another two to three weeks of downtime, though the team isn’t concerned that he’ll miss much, if any time. Top catching prospect Samuel Basallo, meanwhile, has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow and will be limited to DH work in camp. He could begun throwing again by late April (X link via the Banner’s Andy Kostka). In even more injury news, lefty John Means is about a month behind the rest of the O’s starters, as the team had him delay the start of his offseason program after an elbow flare-up prior to last year’s ALDS (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

The Bradish injury is a brutal blow for the defending AL East champions, who saw the right-hander emerge as their clear No. 1 starter in a breakout performance last season. The 27-year-old Bradish made 30 starts and pitched 168 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground-ball rate. He’d been expected to open the season as Baltimore’s No. 2 starter behind newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes, but that clearly won’t happen now.

The injury occurred when Bradish began throwing in January, Elias added (X link via Meyer). The GM struck an optimistic tone, noting that “everything is pointing in the right direction” for the talented right-hander.

Still, any UCL injury for a pitcher is going to be met with immense levels of both trepidation and caution, given the potential for Tommy John surgery. The O’s, to be clear, have made no mention that a Tommy John procedure is a consideration at the moment — but a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of tearing in the ligament. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers diagnosed with a UCL sprain avoid surgery in recent years (Aaron Nola, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani to name a few), but the majority of UCL injuries eventually result in surgery of some kind. Again, that outcome hasn’t yet been broadcast by the team, and Bradish will clearly hope to add his name to the list of pitchers who’ve managed to rest/rehab a ligament injury without going under the knife.

With Bradish and Means both likely to begin the year on the injured list, Baltimore’s rotation outlook is radically altered. Burnes is surely still penciled in to take the ball on Opening Day, and he’ll presumably be followed by righties Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. The final two spots on the staff are far less certain. Options on the 40-man roster include righties Tyler Wells and Jonathan Heasley as well as lefties Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann. Wells’ success as a starter early in the ’23 season and Irvin’s track record in Oakland could give them a leg up in what will presumably be a spring competition.

That said, it was already arguable that the O’s could benefit from an aggressive push to further bolster the starting staff, and uncertainty regarding their No. 2 starter and Means, their former top starter (prior to Tommy John surgery) will only rekindle speculation. Top free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, and the free-agent market also has several solid back-of-the-rotation veterans, including Michael Lorenzen and Hyun Jin Ryu. Trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett have not changed hands this winter. If the club is more pessimistic about Bradish’s injury than has been let on thus far, there’s an uncommonly large supply of potential reinforcements to consider.

Obviously, any additions will require further spending, whether financial or in terms of prospect capital (or both). But the Orioles are generally well positioned to make some kind of addition, should they find a deal to their liking. The team’s long-term payroll outlook is pristine, with only $1MM in guarantees on the books beyond the current season. Their projected 2024 payroll (per Roster Resource) is just $96MM — nearly $70MM shy of the franchise-record mark for Opening Day payroll. And even after trading Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to acquire Burnes, the O’s are still ranked by both Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic as the game’s No. 1 farm system.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Orioles Interested In Extensions For Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

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Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings yesterday and was asked if the Orioles had reached out about extension talks with his clients Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. “Only once or twice a day,” Boras quipped, with Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner among those who passed his comments along. “Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike [Elias] and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

Boras and his clients have a reputation of generally being averse to extensions, though that’s not to say they never happen. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Boras has negotiated extensions for clients such as Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Lance McCullers Jr. and more.

Both Henderson and Holliday are fairly inexperienced but extensions for players at this stage of their careers are becoming more common. Henderson has 184 games under his belt, but has thrived in those, winning American League Rookie of the Year here in 2023. Holliday has yet to make his major league debut but is the consensus top prospect in the sport.

In recent years, players like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have received notable extensions prior to even making it to the big leagues. Jackson Chourio, who currently falls just behind Holliday on those prospect lists, recently set a new benchmark for players with zero service time. He and the Brewers agreed to an eight-year, $82MM extension with performance bonuses and a pair of club options. There have also been notable deals given to players with a small amount of major league experience, with each of Corbin Carroll, Wander Franco and Julio Rodríguez getting nine-figure guarantees.

For the Orioles, they would have to change strategy to get a deal done with either player. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager in November of 2018, the largest guarantee they have given to anyone is the one-year, $13MM deal they gave to Craig Kimbrel this week. The only extensions they have signed were two-year deals for John Means and Félix Bautista. In both cases, the player was rehabbing Tommy John surgery and was already under club control for the two seasons covered by the contract.

To be fair, the O’s have been aggressively rebuilding for much of the Elias tenure, so big spending wasn’t warranted. But they won 83 games in 2022 and still kept this modest last winter. The current offseason is still ramping up, so maybe there’s a bold move or two to come, but there’s been nothing too out-of-character just yet.

Due to that lack of spending, the club has the financial means to theoretically do anything it wants. The only commitments on the books for 2025 are $1MM owed to Bautista and another $1MM for the buyout on Kimbrel’s option. There’s nothing committed for 2026. Per the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had a payroll as high as $164MM in 2017, which put them in the top 10 league-wide. But much has changed since then.

Owner Peter Angelos collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and his son John Angelos later was named “control person” for the club. Since then, the club has been rebuilding and keeping player costs to a minimum. Beyond that, they haven’t been able to agree to a new lease for their home ballpark, with the current agreement set to expire at the end of this month. It was reported earlier today that David Rubenstein is attempting to purchase the club, though it’s unclear if he has a chance of succeeding or how long that would take.

There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty around the franchise so it’s an open question as to how much latitude Elias even has to commit future dollars to either of these players or any of the other on the roster. The aggressive tanking of a few years ago helped them load up their farm system, which has led to their current club being filled with talented youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and more. Getting one or more of those players to put pen to paper and stay in Baltimore for a long time would be a sensible strategy, but the likelihood of such a deal actually happening isn’t obvious at the moment.

In the short term, Elias will have to think about putting the best possible team on the field for 2024 and recently spoke to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball about that. They are set to have an outfield of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, though there are some different options for a fourth outfielder, with Elias naming Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna as suitors for such a gig.

Kjerstad had a solid showing last year, tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before getting into 13 major league contests. The club probably wants to find him regular playing time somewhere, and he has played some first base before, but Elias shot down the notion of him moving there on a regular basis. “I don’t have designs on him becoming a full-time first baseman,” he said. “I think it’s something more that we’re trying to get it to a point where it’s in his back pocket and we can tap into it a couple of days a week.” The club has Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn as options for first base and designated hitter, so it’s not even a guarantee that there’s a cleaner path to playing time for Kjerstad there.

Despite all the crowding, the O’s have some openness to bringing in another outfielder, though it seems the odds of that happening are low. “I still see a ton of playing time and a lot of at-bats outside of our three primary outfielders,” Elias said. “Right now, this is up for grabs. These guys, I don’t think any of them have really proven it yet over a long period of time in the majors, so we’re cognizant of that. If we can find external insurance or external help in this department, it’s not going to close the doors for those guys, and it wouldn’t be unwelcome from our end, either. Competition is good. Depth is good. These seasons are so unpredictable. Odds are you’ll get some injuries, so we have to prepare for all that. We’ll talk to free agents that might be a fit for joining our outfield mix, but we have high hopes for the names that I mentioned.”

Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP

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Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Brown, Peraza, Steer, Aranda

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It’s a September call-ups edition of Big Hype Prospects. MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Anthony Franco already highlighted each club’s initial promotions. We’ll use that list to focus in on the most interesting inclusions and snubs.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 21, SS/3B, BAL (MLB)
8 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .375/.375/.750

Two games into his Major League debut, Henderson has already supplied a bevy of highlights in the field, at the plate, and on the basepaths. The legend will only grow. The Orioles second number one overall prospect to be promoted this season, Henderson’s arrival could help spur the club to a postseason berth. Of all the players promoted by contenders, he has the most impactful potential. While most playoff-bound clubs feature relatively complete rosters, Baltimore has regularly started Rougned Odor (406 PA, 0.1 fWAR). Additionally, third baseman Ramon Urias (2.0 fWAR) hasn’t hit much since late-July. Working Henderson into the infield mix should prove a net-positive in September even if he has some growing pains along the way. He’s started one game at third and shortstop.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Depending on the seriousness of Justin Verlander’s calf strain, Brown might draw a start or three down the stretch this season. Initially, he’ll be employed out of the bullpen with Cristian Javier rejoining the rotation in Verlander’s spot.

This season, Brown successfully built upon a decent 2021 campaign in which longstanding command issues led to muted results. Regardless of his future role, the stuff should play. The right-hander features premium fastball velocity and a pair of potent breaking balls. The curve pairs particularly well with his heater. A pitcher scouting report is never complete without a comment about a “still-developing” changeup. The success of players like Spencer Strider suggests a changeup or even a third offering of any kind shouldn’t be viewed as a requirement. If Brown ultimately stuggles as a starter, it’ll be more due to his lack of command than his repertoire.

One odd little wrinkle: Brown posted a 54.2 percent ground ball rate this season. That’s roughly in-line with past performances. What makes it odd is the way his fastball and curve tunnel together lend themselves to a fly ball profile. I’ll be watching closely to gain a better understanding of how he uses his repertoire.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 429 PA, 19 HR, 33 SB, .259/.329/.448

As expected, the Yankees opted to grant Peraza his first taste of the Majors. Many Yankees fans were clamoring for Anthony Volpe to leapfrog Peraza straight from Double-A. Peraza profiles as a fairly classic shortstop prospect. Defensively, he’s smooth and athletic. In an era riddled with oversized shortstops who post positive defensive metrics mostly due to positioning, Peraza should comfortably stand out as a quality defender.

His hitting remains a work in progress. The fantasy-oriented among you will surely note the excellent combination of power and speed. Yet, there’s potentially a deeper issue with his triple-slash line. His plate discipline and feel for contact haven’t been as effective as many hoped. He remains quite young and could certainly continue to make gains in those areas. Early in his career, expect Major League pitchers to prey upon his willingness to expand the strike zone.

Spencer Steer, 24, 2B/3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 492 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

A gamer the Reds picked up at the trade deadline from the Twins, Steer is poised to fill an everyday utility role in Cincinnati for the next half decade or more. He profiles as an excellent fit for Great American Ballpark. While he’s hit perhaps too many grounders since joining the Reds org, he’s historically skewed towards fly ball contact. His raw power is a tad fringy for his pulled, fly ball contact profile, but GABP is often the gift that keeps on giving to fly ball hitters. No matter how his batted ball profile eventually shakes out, he has sufficient discipline and contact ability to stick in the Majors. He might not ever be an All-Star, but he looks like somebody who should carve out a tidy career.

Jonathan Aranda, 24, 1B/2B, TBR (MLB)
(AAA) 465 PA, 18 HR, 4 SB, .318/.394/.521

Aranda isn’t truly considered a top prospect due to physical attributes scouts have a hard time accepting. However, he has advanced feel for barreling the ball. He’s no better than league average from a raw power perspective, possibly even minus, but he makes up for it via a lofty, contact-driven BABIP and a healthy HR/FB ratio. He’s not a conventional prospect as he’s a tad undersized for first base and isn’t really sufficiently fleet-footed for a utility role. However, the bat should play, and the Rays are absolutely the right org for figuring out how to squeeze him into the lineup without any detrimental effects. With Brandon Lowe once again on the injured list, Aranda could bounce between second base and designated hitter. He also has minimal experience in left field.

Five More

Ken Waldichuk, OAK (24): Waldichuk made his debut on Thursday. His command woes were on full display even while Nationals hitters were clearly uncomfortable. The Washington offense is best considered a Quad-A unit. We’ll see how Waldichuk fairs against true Major League caliber opponents later this month.

Spencer Torkelson, DET (23): No longer technically a prospect because he made 298 plate appearances earlier in the season, Torkelson is nonetheless still a development piece. If one is hunting for positives, Torkelson hit particularly well at Triple-A in 58 plate appearances since mid-August. On the whole, he posted a modest 100 wRC+ in 155 Triple-A plate appearances – hardly inspiring output for a former Top 10 prospect. He rejoined the big league lineup tonight.

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Perhaps the most-notable snub, Jung has thrashed Triple-A pitching in 83 plate appearances. The Rangers are using guarded language when talking about when they’ll promote their top prospect. I’m now inclined to believe they intend to hold off on promoting him until next season. While it’s certainly plausible that they want another year of club control over Jung, he’s not exactly… young. It’s equally plausible the Rangers legitimately believe remaining in Triple-A will be better for Jung’s health and development.

Esteury Ruiz, MIL (23): Following the Josh Hader trade, many (myself included) thought Ruiz would immediately join the Brewers outfield mix. Then, when they consistently passed him over even as the Major League club floundered in the NL Central, it became clear they didn’t believe he could improve upon the work of Tyrone Taylor, Jonathan Davis, Garrett Mitchell, and others of questionable utility. It’s possible he’s mostly on hand to serve as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Notably, Ruiz has not homered since June 15, though he continues to run with aplomb.

Triston Casas, BOS, (22): Another roster expansion snub, Casas has hit .300/.410/.515 since rejoining Triple-A on July 22. He has 11 doubles, a triple, and five home runs over the same span. While he appears to be both big league ready and an obvious upgrade over the Red Sox current mix of first basemen, the Red Sox appear to be undecided about how to handle Casas. They could be jockeying for the extra season of club control, or they might merely be delaying a decision.

Orioles Promote Gunnar Henderson

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The Orioles have officially selected the contract of top prospect Gunnar Henderson.  In corresponding moves, infielder Tyler Nevin was optioned to Triple-A and right-hander Denyi Reyes was designated for assignment.

There had been widespread speculation that Henderson would receive his first MLB promotion when the rosters expanded on September 1, though in calling Henderson up to the big leagues today, the Orioles have now made the infielder eligible for inclusion on a postseason roster should Baltimore continue its surprising season with a playoff berth.

A second-round pick for Baltimore in the 2019 draft, Henderson played in only 29 Rookie League games that season and then naturally didn’t play at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league campaign.  His first proper pro season saw Henderson play well enough to jump from A-ball to Double-A in 2021, and it put him on the top-100 prospect radar heading into the 2022 season.

Fast-forward to August, and the 21-year-old is now the top prospect in the sport in the eyes of Baseball America, with MLB Pipeline ranking Henderson second and Fangraphs ranking him fifth.  Over 503 combined plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022, Henderson has hit .297/.416/.531 with 19 homers, as well as 22 steals in 25 chances.

To go along with his power, speed, and hit tools, Henderson is also an accomplished fielder with a plus throwing arm.  Drafted as a shortstop, Henderson has looked good at the position, but he has also seen a lot of time as a third baseman this season and also played a handful of games at first and second base.  The Orioles have so many other promising young infielders (i.e. Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday) in the pipeline that the team is trying to be flexible in determining the ideal future position for any of these prospects, and Henderson’s usage might also hint at how the O’s will use him during the stretch run of the 2022 season.

The left-handed hitting Henderson could spell any of Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo, or Ryan Mountcastle (all righty bats) at third, short, or first base, and Henderson could also take playing time away from Rougned Odor at second base.  Henderson certainly isn’t being called up to sit on the bench, and he could quickly become a fixture if he performs well in his first look at Major League pitching.

Of course, it isn’t a given that Henderson will have such a quick start, as countless top prospects have taken some time to get accustomed to the majors.  In Henderson’s case, his high strikeout rate in the minors is something of a red flag, though he has cut back on his swing-and-miss in 2022 in comparison to 2021.  He had also posted huge BABIP numbers in the minors, yet Henderson’s speed (and ability to beat out grounders) is certainly a factor in those BABIP totals beyond just batted-ball fortune.

These are heady times for the Orioles, who have emerged from years of rebuilding doldrums to post a 67-61 record and get into contention for a wild-card berth.  Adley Rutschman — an exception to that “top prospects usually need time to adjust” credo — has already become one of baseball’s best catchers, and other rookies like Felix Bautista, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish have played outsized roles in the team’s success.  Kyle Stowers and Terrin Vavra are two more rookies who made their MLB debuts in 2022, and Henderson is just one of several other top prospects waiting to emerge from Baltimore’s loaded farm system.

As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Henderson will also still retain his rookie status for 2023 if he receives less than 13o at-bats, and thus the Orioles can still benefit from the Prospect Promotion Initiative included in the new collective bargaining agreement.  This would put the O’s in line for a bonus draft pick if Henderson remains on the active roster for the entire 2023 season.

Reyes made his Major League debut this season, posting a 2.35 ERA in 7 2/3 innings over three appearances.  A starter for much of his seven-year pro career in the Red Sox and Orioles farm systems, Reyes hasn’t had much consistency at either the Double-A or Triple-A levels, and he has a 7.50 ERA over 42 innings with Baltimore’s Triple-A affiliate this season.

Reyes has allowed 10 homers in those 42 frames, continuing a problem with the long ball that has now emerged over the last two seasons.  Surrendering more homers has erased gains Reyes has made with his strikeout rate, and he has shown excellent control throughout his entire career, with a tiny 1.4 BB/9 during his 584 1/3 minor league innings.

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

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The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

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