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MLB Mailbag: Bohm, Mariners, Guardians, Pirates, Sasaki

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This week's mailbag gets into the concept of trading Alec Bohm, possible targets for the Mariners and Guardians, Roki Sasaki's decision, the Pirates' catching surplus, various hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Eric asks:

What could the Phillies reasonably expect in return for Alec Bohm and a second tier prospect?

Bohm, 28, posted a full-season best 115 wRC+ in 606 plate appearances this year, good for a career-best 3.5 WAR.  That's despite a 74 wRC+ over the season's final two months.  His struggles continued into the Phillies' four NLDS games against the Mets.  I assume this is why Phillies fans seem to want to get rid of him.  Bohm projects for an $8.1MM arbitration salary in 2025 and is under team control through '26.

Though he's a solid player, there is real evidence the Phillies are considering moving Bohm.  Yesterday, ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote, "Coming off a career-best season, the 28-year-old Bohm nonetheless finds himself on the trade block."  Passan offers no rationale beyond the Phillies "looking to shake up their team."

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Ha-Seong Kim’s Challenging Free Agent Case

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Ha-Seong Kim represents one of the biggest risk-reward plays of this year's free agent class. That didn't seem like it'd be the case in August. For most of the season, Kim's profile was built around stability. He wasn't a huge offensive threat, but his plus defense at shortstop and league average bat gave him a strong floor. Kim hadn't had a single injured list stint since making the move from Korea, so durability was going to be one of his biggest selling points.

That changed on August 18. Kim dove back into first base awkwardly on a pickoff attempt. He jammed his right shoulder and went on the IL. The Padres initially announced the injury as inflammation and expressed hope he'd be back within a couple weeks. Kim didn't return and eventually underwent a season-ending labrum repair.

Kim's return timeline is up in the air, as is his free agent value. It seems clear he won't be ready for Opening Day. There's not much known beyond that. Agent Scott Boras has said the 29-year-old will be ready early in the '25 campaign. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was more vague, saying last month that it could be anytime around "May, June, July." Forecasting Kim's market when there's such a wide variance on his return timeline is tricky. That's borne out in the extreme range of pre-offseason contract predictions.

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Why The Royals Should Be Primed For Another Big Offseason

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The Royals were the surprise spender of the 2023-24 offseason, putting down a combined $110.5MM on eight free agents: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola. Several of the moves didn't pan out, but the ones that did paid of in spades. Lugo and Wacha helped anchor a strong rotation, which the Royals rode to a Wild Card berth in the American League. They quickly swept the Orioles out of said Wild Card round before falling 3-1 to the eventual AL Champion Yankees in the Division Series.

Not every offseason spending spree produces such favorable results. More often than not, it seems to go the other direction. "Winning the offseason" has become something of an oft-cited punchline, given the frequency with which the team that grabbed the most headlines over a given winter ultimately still falls shy of expectation.

That doesn't mean the Royals should be reluctant to take a similarly aggressive approach to the free agent market this winter, however. To the contrary, there are several reasons why they should give serious thought to an even more aggressive winter -- perhaps even breaking their prior free agent precedents -- especially with an early strike to retain Wacha on a three-year contract already complete.

It's not exactly a novel concept to suggest that a team that just completed a surprising playoff berth thanks to big contributions from some on-the-rise stars should spend in free agency, of course. But the Royals are better positioned than many might realize, and if you're looking for dark-horse candidates to make a significant splash in free agency, they're among my favorite picks to do so. Let's break down the reasons.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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How Will The Market Value Pete Alonso?

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There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.

We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.

Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.

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MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Soto, Cole, Santander, Dodgers, Mets

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With MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list hitting your screens Monday evening, the MLB Mailbag is back.  This week's mailbag gets into Plan B for the Yankees if they lose Juan Soto, the Gerrit Cole contract situation, the Reds and Nick Martinez, the Cubs' response to Cody Bellinger staying, the Dodgers' approach to free agent pitching, fits for Anthony Santander, the Mets' payroll, and much more.

Mike asks:

So two of the MLBTR writers pick Soto to leave the Yankees and sign with the Mets. Certainly could happen. What struck me though is I didn't see the writers compensating that loss with heavier spending on other free agents by the Yankees. Seems unlikely. Let's assume Soto leaves. What would be a credible backup plan to cover 1B, an open OF spot and either 3B or 2B as Chisholm could cover one or the other?

A different Mike asks:

What do you think the Yankees pivot to when the Dodgers sign Soto?

Frankly, I find Soto slightly more likely to sign with the Mets than the Yankees, but I picked the Yankees because I had nitpicks about most of the major alternate free agents I could put on the Yankees to compensate.  Ah, the annual struggle of making 50 team picks that all make sense.  Beyond the Yankees and Mets, I certainly won't rule out the Dodgers or "the field" on Soto.  But the question of the Yankees' Plan B came up often in our free agent deliberations.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Despite end-of-season promises of a "full-throttle" approach to the 2023-24 offseason, things were fairly quiet for the Red Sox during their first year under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's guidance as the club prioritized short-term commitments in free agency and on the trade market without making a major splash. That led to another disappointing season at Fenway where the club posted a lackluster 81-81 record that landed them third place in the AL East and four games out of an AL Wild Card spot. After a season that saw a number of youngsters take steps forward and with more prospect talent nearing the majors, Breslow's second winter at the helm figures to be more active than his first.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $284MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $77.5MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout on 2028 club option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, DH: $55.8MM through 2027
  • Brayan Bello, SP: $53.33MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on 2030 club option)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS: $48.75MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on 2032 club option)
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option)
  • Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $14MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)

Option Decisions

2025 financial commitments: $105.93MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $562.79MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

Disappointing as the 2024 season was for the Red Sox in terms of their record, one major silver lining for the club this winter is that the majority of their key contributors remain under long-term team control, meaning they'll be able to focus more on upgrading the roster than patching holes created by departing veterans. In particular, they're extremely well set-up in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all currently locked in at the major league level, not to mention the presence of Masataka Yoshida and (assuming his club option is picked up as expected) Rob Refsnyder.

With top prospect Roman Anthony knocking on the door of the majors and even getting some buzz as Baseball America's #1 prospect, the Red Sox remain flush in outfield talent even as they watch Tyler O'Neill and his 30-homer power depart for free agency. Of course, that's not to say O'Neill's bat won't be sorely missed in the Red Sox lineup. As a team, their 104 wRC+ was a hair above average, placing them in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Mariners for the tenth-best figure in the majors. While that's certainly a respectable number, even a prospect as talented as Anthony can't be expected to seamlessly replace the 131 wRC+ O'Neill provided to the club in a resurgent 2024 season.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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After years of aggressive activity on both the trade and free agent markets -- to say nothing of savvy drafting and player development -- the Dodgers stand alone on top of the MLB mountain. They erased a 5-0 deficit in Game 5 to topple the Yankees by a score of 7-6, securing the largest comeback ever in a clinching game. It's the eighth World Series win in Dodgers history and the fourth time they've topped the Yankees in the Fall Classic. Now, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and the rest of L.A.'s baseball operations outfit must turn their focus to a 2025 title defense.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $698MM through 2033 ($678MM deferred, without interest, through 2043)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $270MM through 2035 (player can opt out after 2029 or 2031 seasons)
  • Mookie Betts, OF/INF: $265MM through 2032 ($128MM deferred [$45MM signing bonus, $83MM of salary] through 2044)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $111.5625MM through 2028 (includes $21.625MM player option for 2028)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $81MM through 2027 ($36MM deferred, without interest, through 2040)
  • Will Smith, C: $96.45MM through 2033 ($45MM deferred through 2043)
  • Chris Taylor, OF/INF: $17MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Max Muncy, 3B: $12.5MM through 2025
  • Tommy Edman, INF/OF: $9.5MM through 2025
  • Ryan Brasier, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025

2025 commitments: $214.5MM ($93MM deferred)
Total long-term commitments: $1.565 billion ($887MM deferred)

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: May, Gonsolin, Brogdon

Free  Agents

As is often the case, the first "question" of the offseason for the Dodgers will center around the dugout. Dave Roberts, who's helmed the club for nine seasons en route to eight division titles, four National League pennants and World Series wins in 2020 and 2024, is slated to enter the final season of his contract. A change would register as a shock after Roberts' first World Series win in a 162-game season. An extension to avoid lame-duck status next year seems like it'll be in order, though it's possible that'll be held off until spring training. Broadly speaking, changes on the staff will likely be minimal, unless the Dodgers see a coach or coaches hired away for promotions on other staffs.

With regard to contractual options on the actual roster, there's not a lot of drama. Clayton Kershaw has already committed to returning to the Dodgers next season. Exercising his $10MM player option seems like the most straightforward means of making that happen, but perhaps the two parties will connect early to hammer out slightly different terms. Miguel Rojas' $5MM club option is a net $4MM decision when factoring in the $1MM buyout. After the season he just had, that should be a no-brainer, even if he's ticketed for a more limited role in 2025. Austin Barnes is an organizational favorite, but the Dodgers are deep at catcher. He's a borderline call, but maybe shelling out $3.5MM (and a presumptive 110% luxury tax) for a veteran backup isn't something the organization cares to do with Hunter Feduccia, Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing all on the the near-MLB depth chart.

Talk of Juan Soto will dominate the offseason, but we'll get to him in a bit. Starting pitching figures to be the primary focus for a Dodgers club that patched its staff together in the rotation and watched several young arms go down with long-term injuries. Righty Gavin Stone is likely out for all of 2025 following shoulder surgery. River Ryan, Kyle Hurt and Emmet Sheehan all had Tommy John surgery this season. Dustin May's return from flexor surgery was derailed by a bizarre and frightening tear in his esophagus that required surgery. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery last August and should be back in '25, but he'll be on an innings restriction. Walker Buehler and deadline pickup Jack Flaherty are free agents. Last season's breakout right-hander Bobby Miller endured a nightmare 2024 campaign, logging an 8.52 ERA in the majors and a 6.00 mark in Triple-A.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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It's a quick turnaround for the Yankees after last night's gutting defeat. The front office will jump right into offseason work. The most immediate focus is on their ace's complicated opt-out decision. After that, they'll make a push to retain a likely Hall of Famer who'll set a new contract record in the next few months.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, CF: $280MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, RHP: $144MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out this winter; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29)
  • Carlos Rodón, LHP: $108MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, DH: $96MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)*
  • DJ LeMahieu, 3B: $30MM through 2026
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP: $18MM through 2025 (deal contains $18MM vesting/player option for '26 if Stroman pitches 140+ innings next season)

* Marlins are covering $30MM of Stanton's contract between 2026-28, so Yankees are on the hook for $66MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Gerrit Cole can opt out of final four years and $144MM; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29
  • Team holds $17MM option on 1B Anthony Rizzo ($6MM buyout)
  • Team holds $5MM option on RHP Lou Trivino
  • Team holds $2.5MM option on RHP Luke Weaver

Additional Obligations

2025 financial commitments (if Cole doesn't hit free agency): $183.5MM
Total future commitments (if Cole doesn't opt out): $662.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Berti, Mayza, Grisham, Brubaker

Free Agents

There's no bigger story of the offseason than Juan Soto. That's true not only for the Yankees but MLB as a whole. Soto's next contract is almost certainly going to surpass $500MM. There's a reasonable chance the guarantee begins with a 6. He should break the record both for average annual value and overall guarantee (assuming one takes the net present value of the Shohei Ohtani deal rather than the $700MM figure, which does not account for the contract's $680MM of deferrals).

The Yankees are obviously going to try to keep Soto in the Bronx. His first season couldn't have gone much better. Soto had arguably the best full year of his career. He just turned 26 and is theoretically only entering his prime, at least offensively. The defense probably won't age well over the course of a deal that stretches beyond a decade, but it doesn't really matter. Soto's floor at the plate is better than any free agent's in recent memory.

Every high-payroll team will be tied to Soto. There's a chance it comes down to a bidding war between the New York franchises. The Mets are clearly going to be all-in. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns stoked the flames last week, saying the franchise's ample payroll space "means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible." The biggest offseason question may be whether Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is willing to be outbid by Mets owner Steve Cohen on a player who was instrumental in pushing the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years.

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