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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Castellanos

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So … it’s early. Then again, we’re also already a sixth of the way through the season (for some teams, anyway). When it comes to assessing next year’s free agent crop, teams won’t have the luxury of watching a full season of repeat testing.

That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.

All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.

What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.

On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.

You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.

That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.

This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.

The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.

But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Abreu

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It isn’t uncommon for any free agent and team to profess some level of mutual interest as the player approaches the open market.  Still, given the amount of connection between the White Sox and Jose Abreu, it still seems a bit surprising that the first baseman is still slated for free agency here in late October rather than already locked up to a new contract extension.

GM Rick Hahn said back in May that “it’s certainly very likely that [Abreu will] be here” once the Sox emerge from their rebuilding phase.  Abreu himself has expressed his desire to remain on the South Side on multiple occasions, and even said in August that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had unofficially promised to keep him in the organization.  So, while the two sides didn’t discuss an extension during the season, it still wouldn’t be a shocker to see Abreu and the Sox reach a new deal while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights (Abreu won’t file for free agency until five days after the end of the World Series).

That said, the lack of known movement towards a new contract could be some due diligence on the team’s part, as they weigh the pros and cons of re-signing a player who will turn 33 in January, and has only been pretty good rather than great over the last two seasons.

After Abreu’s first four MLB seasons resulted in a .301/.359/.524 slash line and 124 homers in 2660 plate appearances, the slugger’s production took a step backwards in 2018 and 2019.  Injuries played a role in Abreu’s relative struggles in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2019 wRC+ (117) was only a touch higher than his 2018 production (115 wRC+).

Abreu’s 40.7% hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was the highest of his career, and he finished in the 94th percentile of all hitters in exit velocity.  He also ranked in at least the top 18 percent of hitters in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and had a career-best 12.8% barrel percentage.

On the down side, Abreu has only a .328 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, and his 21.9% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.  He has never been much of a baserunner, limiting his ability to beat out grounders despite the fact that opposing teams rarely deploy a shift against him.  However, opposing pitchers have been feeding Abreu an increasingly large number of sliders over the last two seasons, with increasing success — Abreu had only an 89 wRC+ against sliders in 2018 and a 66 wRC+ against the pitch this year.

Beyond the Statcast numbers, there’s also the simpler lefty/righty split, as the right-handed hitting Abreu has been increasingly less-effective against right-handed pitching.  2019 marked the first time that Abreu was a below-average 99 wRC+) run producer against righties, dropping down from an also so-so 107 wRC+ in 2018.

There are enough question marks here for interested suitors to be wary of signing Abreu to a pricey multi-year pact in free agency.  Despite the fact that Abreu looks like the clear best option (unless the Cubs inexplicably cut Anthony Rizzo free) in a relatively thin market of free agent first basemen, teams have shown that they are increasingly unwilling to pay big money for anything less than an elite production from the first base/DH positions.

Plus, the White Sox hold some significant leverage on Abreu’s market in the form of the qualifying offer.  If Abreu was to reject Chicago’s one-year/$17.8MM offer, a new team would have to give up a draft pick in order to sign him, which could give even more clubs pause.  Issuing the QO results in three potential scenarios, two of which are good for the White Sox — either the draft pick compensation depresses Abreu’s market to the point that they can re-sign him at more of a club-friendly price, or perhaps Abreu simply accepts the qualifying offer and the Sox retain a player they like but not at a multi-year commitment.

The third scenario, of course, would be that the Sox recoup a draft pick via the QO but Abreu signs elsewhere, which would be no small loss given Abreu’s mentorship role on a young White Sox team.  As Hahn himself said, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”  Perhaps moreso than most teams, the White Sox are a bit more old-school in their approach, and thus are more prone to go out of their way to keep a player who continues the Frank Thomas/Paul Konerko tradition of a franchise cornerstone first baseman, especially as the team looks to finally get back into contention in the AL Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Astros

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The Astros are on the cusp of facing the Nationals in Friday’s third game of the World Series. Even though Houston hosted the first two contests, neither went its way. The Astros dropped a nail-biter Tuesday before the Nats slaughtered them Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether the Astros will mount a spirited comeback, but regardless, their season has a maximum of five games left. After that, they could see some important contributors walk via free agency We’ve already previewed the Nationals’ upcoming list of unsigned players. Now, let’s see which players the Astros might see depart on the open market…

Gerrit Cole, RHP:

  • Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.

Robinson Chirinos, C:

  • While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.

Wade Miley, LHP:

  • Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.

Will Harris, RP:

  • There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.

Joe Smith, RP:

  • Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.

Hector Rondon, RP:

  • Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.

Martin Maldonado, C:

  • Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.

Collin McHugh, RHP:

  • McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nationals

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The thrilling first game of the World Series just wrapped up with Washington pulling off a 5-4 victory in Houston. If you’re a neutral observer, you may be hoping for six more games just like that one. However long the series lasts, though, both teams stand to see some key contributors reach the open market thereafter. Let’s start with a review of the Nationals’ pending free agents…

Anthony Rendon, 3B:

  • I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.

Brian Dozier, 2B:

  • Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:

  • As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:

  • The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.

Gerardo Parra, OF:

  • It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.

Daniel Hudson, RP:

  • The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:

  • Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.

Fernando Rodney, RP:

  • This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.

Jonny Venters, RP:

  • Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Catchers

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Pittsburgh is among the teams that will be looking for help behind the plate during the upcoming offseason. The problem for the Pirates and others is that there’s a pittance of slam-dunk starters who are scheduled to reach the open market. With just over a month left in the regular season, here’s a rundown of how the game’s soon-to-be free-agent backstops have performed this year…

The Gold Standard:

  • Yasmani Grandal, Brewers: It was a strange offseason last winter for Grandal. Even though the Dodgers issued him a qualifying offer, he still landed a proposal in the four-year, $60MM range from the Mets. But Grandal passed, which forced him to eventually settle for the Brewers’ one-year, $18.25MM guarantee. The deal includes a $16MM mutual option for 2020, but Grandal’s sure to decline his half of it on the heels of another quality season. The switch-hitting 30-year-old has yet again paired easily above-average offense with well-regarded work behind the plate. Grandal’s .253/.380/.460 line with 20 home runs in 503 plate appearances has kept him among the game’s premier offensive catchers, while he’s near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. The Brewers won’t be able to issue Grandal a qualifying offer after the season, which only makes it more likely that he’ll reel in a lucrative multiyear deal over the winter.

Regulars:

  • Jason Castro, Twins: Castro’s closing out a three-year, $24MM with Minnesota, which – aside from an injury-ruined 2018 – has gotten decent overall production from the former Astro. This year’s version is showing more power than ever, with a career-high .228 ISO. Castro, 32, also boasts a .244/.327/.472 line with 12 HRs through 224 PA. Known primarily for his defensive prowess, Castro’s having another fine season in that realm. A return to Minnesota in 2020 seems unlikely, though, as fellow Twins catcher Mitch Garver has emerged as one of baseball’s supreme breakout players this season.
  • Travis d’Arnaud, Rays: The Mets released d’Arnaud, a former star prospect, early in the season. Their loss has been an enormous gain for the Rays, who had been counting on offseason pickup Mike Zunino to perform respectably as their No. 1 catcher. Zunino has been awful, however, which has allowed d’Arnaud to put himself back on the map in Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old has batted a sturdy .261/.328/.469 with 13 homers in 271 attempts as a Ray, and has finally stayed healthy after multiple injury-laden seasons. Although d’Arnaud is more a middle-of-the-pack defender than a high-end one, it nonetheless appears he’s on his way to a solid offseason payday.
  • Robinson Chirinos, Astros: If you’re looking for some affordable offensive pop from your catcher, Chirinos is a good choice. Just don’t expect defensive brilliance from the 35-year-old. Chirinos, whom the Rangers non-tendered last winter, has given the Astros a 373 PA of .236/.342/.428 hitting with 14 long balls. It’s the fifth straight season of above-average production at the plate from Chirinos.

On the Fringe:

  • Brian McCann, Braves: Now 35, the seven-time All-Star can still play. In his return to Atlanta, the site of his greatest individual success, McCann has hit .264/.336/.423 and smacked 10 homers in 274 trips to the plate, though the lefty’s unplayable versus same-handed pitchers. Defensively, although McCann has thrown out a mere 14 percent of would-be base thieves, Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly on his overall work. McCann should get another guaranteed one-year deal in the offseason if he wants, but perhaps he’ll decide to call it quits.
  • Martin Maldonado, Astros: Maldonado’s defensive skills are well-documented, but whether he hits enough to serve as a regular is debatable. The 33-year-old has batted a less-than-stellar .210/.284/.360 in 319 PA this season, but it does seem likely he’ll get a major league deal over the winter. He turned down two years and $12MM from Houston last offseason before signing with Kansas City for $2.5MM, after all, and was then in demand around this year’s trade deadline. Two teams (the Cubs and then the Astros) swung deals for him last month.

Potentially Useful 30-Somethings:

  • Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: A team looking for a capable backup could do a lot worse than Avila. He has been a better-than-average defender two years running, per BP’s FRAA metric, and has yet again performed well with the bat. The walk-heavy lefty has drawn free passes just under 20 percent of the time this season en route to a .223/.377/.488 showing through 151 PA. Avila’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has extreme difficulty against same-handed pitchers, so he’s not going to come at a high price.
  • Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin has been one of the premier catchers in baseball for a large portion of his career, which began in 2006, but the 36-year-old’s offensive efficacy is fading. The always patient Martin has gotten on base at a .330 clip this year, though his average is barely above the Mendoza line, his slugging percentage is a point under .300 and his ISO is below .100. At the very least, though, Martin’s a still-useful defender and a well-respected teammate.
  • Jonathan Lucroy, Cubs: Lucroy may be able to get a major league contract in the offseason, as he did when the Cubs signed him this month after the Angels released him, but his days as a viable starter are clearly over. Formerly an elite all-around backstop, the 33-year-old falls well short as a hitter and defender nowadays. However, Lucroy’s modest-looking line of .245/.313/368 in 300 PA does amount to an 83 wRC+, which is roughly average relative to his position.
  • Matt Wieters, Cardinals: Dubbed “Mauer with Power” during his days as a super-prospect with the Orioles, Wieters has seldom lived up to the hype in the majors. Wieters was a legit starter for a while, granted, but the 33-year-old’s now amid his second straight season as a part-timer. The 33-year-old has been a usable backup at the plate, evidenced by his .219/.272/.439 line and 10 HRs through 169 PA, though his numbers are hardly great (or even good). Wieters’ defensive output – at least by the advanced metrics – has also continued to lag. He has, however, thrown out an eye-popping 44 percent of would-be base-stealers. But Wieters had to settle for a minors deal last winter after a similarly productive 2018, and he may have to do the same during the upcoming winter.
  • Welington Castillo, White Sox: This season has been an utter disaster for Castillo, a normally decent hitter who currently owns a .203/.270/.368 line with minus-1.0 fWAR over 200 trips to the plate. Castillo’s technically not a surefire free agent, as the White Sox hold an $8MM club option for him for 2020, but they’ll decline it in favor of a $500K buyout. While Castillo, now 32, secured a two-year, $15MM guarantee last time he reached the open market, a major league contract may not be a lock this time around.
  • Francisco Cervelli, Braves: As with Castillo, Cervelli’s a once-successful backstop who’s coming off a sizable contract (three years, $31MM). The Pirates released Cervelli from that deal last week, though he quickly landed on his feet on a majors pact with the Braves. Whether he’ll haul in another guaranteed pact in the offseason is up in the air. After all, the 33-year-old has a long history of concussion issues – a brain injury has shelved him for most of this season – and hasn’t been productive in 2019. Cervelli’s just a .220/.298/.314 hitter with a single HR in 132 trips this year.
  • Stephen Vogt, Giants: The switch-hitting Vogt has somewhat quietly been one of the majors’ best comeback stories this season. A two-time All-Star with the Athletics from 2013-17, Vogt missed all of last season with the Brewers because of what looked like career-threatening shoulder problems. He didn’t give up, though, returning to the Bay Area in the offseason on a non-guaranteed deal with the Giants. They brought Vogt up May 1, and all he has done since then is slash .275/.329/.523 with eight homers and a personal-high .249 ISO in 222 PA. Between that and his highly regarded behind-the-scenes presence, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Vogt will draw offseason interest, though a major league deal could be difficult to land.
  • Austin Romine, Yankees: Romine has been stuck in the shadow of Gary Sanchez in New York, but he has been a decent offensive backup twice in a row. The 30-year-old has overcome a glacial start this season to post a .268/.290/.408 line in 187 PA, though he has drawn walks at just a 3.2 percent clip. While the FRAA metric graded Romine favorably from 2017-18, he has been a minus in that category this season. Still, whether with the Yankees or another team, the 30-year-old figures to get a guaranteed contract in the winter.

Iffy Option Decisions:

  • Yan Gomes, Nationals: Gomes, a former Indian, was in the throes of an abysmal season as recently as mid-July, but he’s starting to heat up. Will it be enough for the Nationals to pick up his option for $9MM and not buy him out for $1MM? We’ll see. The overall line of .219/.325/.342 with six homers in 274 PA obviously isn’t what the Nats had in mind when they acquired Gomes, nor is the mediocre defense he has given them. However, if Washington does turn down the option, it’s doubtful the 32-year-old Gomes will have much trouble finding work in the offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Wade Miley

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Left-hander Wade Miley was one of the most cost-efficient free-agent signings in each of the previous two offseasons. He was highly successful as a Brewer in 2018 after settling for a minor league contract, and has continued to thrive this year as an Astro on the heels of taking a major league pact worth $4.5MM. Over the past season and a half, Miley ranks 14th among qualified starters in ERA (3.11).

Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).

Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.

As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.

The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.

Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello

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Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Mike Moustakas

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You already know the essentials here. Mike Moustakas has twice entered the open market in apparent position to secure a strong, multi-year contract. And he has twice come away with a one-year pillow deal (in each case involving a mutual option that mostly functions to defer some salary). As he closes in on his 31st birthday at the tail end of the 2019 season, Moustakas is still playing well. Can he finally hit it big in free agency? Or will he again be forced to go year-to-year?

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Donaldson

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson was one of the majors’ elite players from 2013-17, a five-year, 3,270-plate appearance span with the Athletics and Blue Jays in which he ranked second only to Mike Trout in fWAR (34.4). Donaldson slashed .282/.377/.524 along the way and placed fifth in wRC+ (148) and sixth in home runs (164). In 2015, his best season during that stretch, Donaldson smashed 41 homers en route to American League MVP honors. Four years later, though, it’s highly questionable whether Donaldson will ever approach the MVP conversation again.

After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.

The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.

One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.

Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.

Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.

Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasiel Puig

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Looking to return to relevance and break their five-year playoff drought in 2019, the Reds operated aggressively on the trade market during the offseason. The club swung multiple noteworthy deals, including a swap with the Dodgers in which they netted outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp and left-hander Alex Wood. So far, though, that trade hasn’t delivered the on-field value the Reds wanted. They released Kemp in early May after he got off to a miserable start, while Wood hasn’t taken the field at all because of a back injury. That leaves Puig, who was perhaps the Reds’ biggest acquisition of the offseason. To this point, however, the 28-year-old has been a bust in Cincinnati.

Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.

The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.

Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.

When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.

It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.

Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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