Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Grant Balfour

By Steve Adams | October 18, 2013 at 8:51am CDT

Most relievers don't have to wait until age 34 to get their first crack at a closing gig, but the wait has been worth it for Grant Balfour. The Aussie right-hander missed two full seasons thanks to Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery following a promising debut with the Twins in his age 25-26 seasons. He rediscovered himself in Tampa Bay before heading to the A's in 2011. Balfour was handed the ninth inning in his second season with Oakland, and has racked up 62 saves from 2012-13 for the back-to-back AL West champions.

Strengths/Pros

Strikeouts are the name of the game for Balfour, and few free agent relievers have been better than him in 2013. Balfour's 10.8 K/9 trails only Jesse Crain, Fernando Rodney and Carlos Marmol among impending free agent relievers. Crain comes with health concerns, Marmol's struggles are well documented and Rodney's a year older with inferior command.

Balfour doesn't have the near-95-mph fastball average that he had in his best season with the Rays (2008), but his 2013 average of 93.4 mph is plenty respectable. It's also his best mark since that dominant 2008 season, so his stuff isn't in a state of decline.

While Balfour clearly had injury problems early on in his career, he hasn't hit the disabled list with an arm injury since his 2006 shoulder surgery. He's appeared in at least 57 games in each of the past six seasons.

Balfour lived up to his somewhat ironic last name early in his career, averaging 4.7 walks per nine innings in parts of six seasons from 2001-09. However, since that time he's averaged just 3.3 walks per nine while striking out more than a batter per inning. He hasn't posted a single-season ERA north of 2.59 since 2009, and he won't be tied to draft pick compensation, as the cost-conscious A's won't risk offering a $14MM qualifying offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

As previously mentioned, Balfour's been healthy for each of the past two seasons, but he does have a long list of injuries throughout his career. He underwent knee surgery this past offseason to repair a torn meniscus, and he spent time on the DL with oblique and intercostal strains in 2010 and 2011. While a great deal of his injuries are in the past, a 36-year-old reliever that's gone under the knife three times does come with some risk.

His command has been solid over the past four seasons, but ihis BB/9 mark has actually crept upward incrementally since 2010. While he's still considerably better than he was early on in his career, Balfour's 3.9 BB/9 in 2013 is on the high side. He's also uncorked nine wild pitches in 2013 despite entering the season with just 12 in his entire career.

Impressive as Balfour's overall numbers are in recent years, much of those numbers come from a significant home/road split. O.co Colliseum is one of the game's most pitcher-friendly environments, and Balfour has a 1.58 ERA in 113 2/3 innings there, compared to a more pedestrian 3.78 ERA in 85 2/3 innings on the road. He's averaged 0.71 HR/9 at home and 1.05 HR/9 on the road. Teams in smaller parks may be wary of Balfour, whose career ground-ball rate is just 35.2 percent.

Personal

Balfour is known as an intense, fiery competitor and often shouts (and curses) to himself on the mound to get his adrenaline flowing. Sports are in his blood, as the A's media guide tells us that his father was a rugby player in their native Australia and is now the general manager of the Australian Baseball League's Sydney Blue Sox. Balfour played rugby as well through college and spent much of his amateur career as a catcher. He and his wife, Angie, have a daughter together.

Market

Balfour will have plenty of competition on the open market with Rodney, Joe Nathan, Joaquin Benoit and Brian Wilson all hitting free agency as well. Balfour doesn't lead that group in strikeouts, control, fastball velocity or saves, but agent Keith Miller of ACES can point to the fact that his client possesses the best mix of youth and health among those peers. Though he turns 36 in December, he's younger than Nathan, Benoit and Rodney, and unlike Wilson, Balfour isn't coming off of a major surgical procedure.

For what it's worth, 69 percent of respondents in the recent Free Agent Faceoff that I conducted between Balfour and Benoit felt that Balfour was the superior option.

He recently acknowledged how important it was for him to pitch a clean ninth inning in Game 5 of the ALDS, even though the A's were losing, as he knew it could have been his last appearance for the A's. Oakland will obviously have a place for him, but he could be too spendy for the A's after two strong seasons as a closer. Balfour earned just $12.25MM over the course of his three years with the A's, but the price tag will be higher now. If not Oakland, he could be a fit for the Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Brewers or Rockies. The Orioles and Indians could be in the mix as well, should either team decide to non-tender its high-priced incumbent.

Expected Contract

Following the 2011 season, Nathan was able to secure a two-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rangers coming off an uninspiring return season from Tommy John surgery. Balfour's recent injury history isn't as concerning, and he's hitting the market a year younger than Nathan was at that time. While he doesn't have Nathan's track record as one of the game's elite closers, I expect that agent Miller will consider Nathan's old contract the floor for his client — and rightfully so.

Relievers rarely get three guaranteed years at this stage of their careers. Heath Bell managed three years and $27MM, but he did so as he was entering his age-35 season. Balfour will begin next season as a 36-year-old, but should be able to match Bell in terms of average annual value. I expect that Balfour will end up signing a two-year, $18MM contract, perhaps with a vesting or club option that will allow him to match Bell's contract if he remains healthy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: A.J. Burnett

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2013 at 10:46am CDT

When the Yankees were able to obtain some salary relief and a pair of warm bodies (Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones) for the final two years of A.J. Burnett's contract, many in New York celebrated the move. Burnett had struggled in his second and third years with the Bombers, but the Pirates were optimistic. As GM Neal Huntington recently explained to me, Pittsburgh scouts saw a "plus pitch package" in Burnett, and he checked out favorably in several metrics on which they place an emphasis. Burnett has resurfaced as a top-of-the-rotation arm with the Bucs and is now set to hit free agency entering his age-37 season. He's still not sure whether he'll retire or continue his career, but let's examine his free agency under the assumption that he chooses to play…

Strengths/Pros

There's perhaps no better trio of skills for a starting pitcher to possess than the ability to miss bats, the ability to induce ground-balls and the ability to limit walks. Burnett has all three of those. His 9.8 K/9 rate led the Senior Circuit, and his 10.6 percent swinging-strike rate tied him with Stephen Strasburg for ninth in the NL. Burnett's 56.5 percent ground-ball rate was tops among qualified NL starters as well, and his 3.2 BB/9 mark, while a bit behind the MLB average of 2.8 for starters, is plenty respectable.

The more sabermetrically inclined crowd will appreciate the fact that Burnett's 2.80 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA all lead this year's crop of free agent starting pitchers. His 4.0 fWAR trail only James Shields and Jon Lester among possible free agents, and each of those hurlers is a lock to have his club option exercised, preventing them from hitting the open market. Simply put, advanced metrics are in love with Burnett.

However, the more traditional set of stats will tell us that Burnett was quite good in 2013 as well. He totaled a 3.30 ERA in 191 innings of work and held opponents to a paltry .231/.304/.335, essentially reducing every hitter he faced to the equivalent of Kevin Frandsen (.234/.296/.341) or Eric Young (.249/.310/.336).

The Pirates love Burnett, but a $14.1MM salary might be steep for their modest payroll, especially with big arbitration raises in store for Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon and Charlie Morton. That group figures to earn a collective $9.2MM more than in 2013, and with built-in raises for Andrew McCutchen, Jason Grilli, Russell Martin and Franciso Liriano in store, a qualifying offer seems unlikely for Burnett. As such, he shouldn't require a draft pick to sign.

Weaknesses/Cons

Burnett has been more healthy in recent years, but there's no overlooking the fact that he'll be 37 on Opening Day next year and has 11 different stints on the big league DL under his belt. The only recent DL stint that wasn't due to a fluke injury was the calf strain that cost him four weeks of his 2013 season, but Burnett's body has a lot of wear and tear on it.

Excellent as he's been lately, Burnett's detractors will point to his time in New York and much of his time in Toronto and say that he simply isn't the same pitcher in the American League when he doesn't have the benefit of facing opposing pitchers. Burnett has a career 3.63 ERA in the NL (3.41 in his most recent 393 innings with Pittsburgh) but a 4.39 ERA In the AL. The 5.20 ERA he posted in his final two seasons with the Yankees, in particular, could give AL clubs pause.

There's also the fact that, right or wrong, Burnett's free agency may be tarnished by his most recent results. Burnett made just one postseason appearance with the Pirates — a two-inning, seven-run shellacking at Busch Stadium. That performance and his historic struggles at Busch Stadium led manager Clint Hurdle to start rookie Gerrit Cole over Burnett in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS. Burnett would have liked to prove that he could defeat the Cardinals on the road and send his team to the NLCS, but he's instead left with a simple "what if" as he and agent Darek Braunecker of Frontline Sports Management talk with interested clubs in the offseason.

Personal

Burnett has two children, Ashton and Allan Jr., with his wife Karen. The pitcher helped to endorse the Adam Walsh Children’s Fund and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children while playing in Miami in 2001 and 2002 and also served as the national spokesman for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

Market

Burnett has gone on record recently as saying he's 50-50 on retiring, and he wants to end his Major League career as a Pirate. Those comments were made before the team's disappointing departure from the postseason, so perhaps Burnett will return for another year, fueled by a desire to lead the Bucs to a World Series and redeem himself for his postseason miscue. It's hard to imagine him signing anywhere else, but contending teams looking at one-year rotation pieces like the Nationals and Dodgers may still call in the offseason to gauge their chances. The Pirates have said they will do everything in their power to retain Burnett, and they're clearly the runaway favorites to land him — if he pitches.

Expected Contract

Burnett has earned more than $120MM in his career, according to Baseball-Reference.com, so he may not seek to maximize his salary, especially not with the Pirates' tight payroll. I have no doubt that if he wanted to hit the open market in search of a two-year deal, Burnett could surpass Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM guarantee over that same term. However, given his uncertainty toward pitching in 2014, it seems unlikely that he'd want to lock himself into a contract for 2015 as well. As such, I expect that Burnett will sign a one-year, $12MM contract with the Pirates or simply call it a career this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan

By Tim Dierkes | October 16, 2013 at 12:32pm CDT

Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best. Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38. After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.

Strengths/Pros

With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341. That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract. He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then. Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods. He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons. His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves. Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.

Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure. From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings. He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total. Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh. Only four pitchers saved more games.

Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.

Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one. Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year. Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season. Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times. I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars. Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.

Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03. He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish. It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.

Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%. It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings. However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012. Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.

Personal

Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee. He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management. Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December. His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.

Market

Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason. While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.

Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team. The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer. The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons. The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively. Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag. Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.

Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.

Expected Contract

Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age. Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling. Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons. Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

By Tim Dierkes | October 15, 2013 at 3:17pm CDT

Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation? Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team. He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal. Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.

Strengths/Pros

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments. His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard." Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields." In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play." One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power." Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013. Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter. A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann. Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment. MLB executives are drooling at the thought. There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside. Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances. In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career. The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter. There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk? Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat. One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman. The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year. As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement. Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll be worth a $10MM salary.

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late. He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.

Personal

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job. Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick. Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people." Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

Market

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached. Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk. Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful. The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age. The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October. They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Expected Contract

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals. Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency. Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance. Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract. Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain. $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling. Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Free Agent Profile: Josh Johnson

By Tim Dierkes | October 14, 2013 at 10:52pm CDT

Before the season began, Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson ranked third on my Free Agent Power Rankings, which serves as an example of how tantalizing his abilities can be. He lasted four starts before hitting the DL with triceps tightness. He returned over a month later and made another dozen starts before a forearm injury ended his season. On October 1st, Johnson had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies and a bone spur in his elbow, and he's expected to be ready for Spring Training. Let's take a look at his free agent prospects after the lost season.

Pros/Strengths

Johnson is one of the hardest-throwing free agent starters, as his average fastball velocity of 92.8 miles per hour this year was bested only by Garza. He finished fourth in strikeouts per nine innings at 9.18. Even in a year in which almost nothing went right, Johnson still threw hard and whiffed more than a batter per inning.

Prior to 2013, Johnson had a reputation of a pitcher who would spend some time on the DL, but would be excellent when he was on the mound. He posted a 3.14 ERA over 904 1/3 innings from 2006-12. During that time period, his ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball among those with at least 800 innings. Johnson pitched like an ace for the Marlins from 2009-10, with a 2.80 ERA over 392 2/3 innings. Only four pitchers were better. He made the All-Star team in both seasons, and finished fifth in the 2010 NL Cy Young voting after posting a 2.30 ERA.

Given his rough 2013 campaign, Johnson is highly unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, so he won't come with a draft pick cost attached.

Johnson's recent elbow surgery could be construed as a positive, as Dr. James Andrews told the pitcher he thought the bone spurs were the cause of his struggles this year, agent Matt Sosnick told MLBTR.

Weaknesses/Cons

Johnson is a starting pitcher who tossed fewer than 1,000 innings over an eight-year span, as he's been injured a ton. In 2006, his first full season, he was done on September 12th due to a forearm strain. He began the '07 season on the DL with ulnar nerve irritation in his right biceps. After beginning his season in June of that year, he made four starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in August. His recovery was short, as he was back on a Major League mound in less than a year.

Johnson was injury-free in '09, and signed a four-year extension after that season. Though he technically avoided the DL in his fantastic 2010 campaign, his last start came on September 4th due to shoulder inflammation and a back strain. He hit the DL with shoulder inflammation in May 2011, and wasn't able to return from the injury that year, finishing with only nine starts. The mostly-healthy 2009-10 seasons showed Johnson bounced back well from Tommy John surgery, but '11 reintroduced the idea that he was injury-prone. He bounced back in 2012, avoiding the DL and making 31 starts. Johnson didn't pitch at his previous ace level, but he re-established enough hope to be a major part of the November blockbuster with Toronto.

As mentioned in the introduction of this post, Johnson endured separate injuries in 2013 involving his triceps and elbow, culminating in surgery. He made a lot of bad pitches, allowing 11.6 hits and 1.66 home runs per nine innings, leading to a career-worst 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings. Even if we give him a pass for Tommy John surgery early in his career, Johnson has had three healthy seasons in the last five. He hasn't had an ace-caliber healthy season since 2010, calling into question whether he can return to that level for 180 innings. After 2013, his ability and durability must be questioned. With only one 200-inning season in his career, Johnson is the polar opposite of a dependable, low-upside arm like Bronson Arroyo.

Personal

Josh is married with two children, and they reside in Las Vegas during the offseason. He's a big golfer who plays to a 1 handicap.

Market

Sosnick told MLBTR Johnson loved playing for Blue Jays manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos. The pitcher has interest in returning to the Jays. If a reunion doesn't happen, pretty much any team could explore a deal, since the risk will be limited to one year. The Cubs, Rays, Mets, Rangers, Pirates, Nationals, Twins, Indians, and Athletics are some teams that have shown a willingness in recent years to sign free agent starting pitcher projects.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal free of options is in the cards for Johnson, as he aims to rebuild value with a healthy 2014. The gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is the one-year, $10MM deal Ben Sheets signed with the Athletics after missing all of 2009. Though that contract is almost four years old, I see it as the ceiling for Johnson. Ultimately, I predict a one-year, $8MM deal, with significant incentives in the $4-6MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tim Hudson

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2013 at 8:55am CDT

After a slow start to his 2013 campaign, Tim Hudson was on a serious hot streak before a fractured ankle — suffered while covering first base on a grounder — put an end to his season in late July. Hudson won't have the luxury of hitting free agency off another 200-inning season, but there should still be plenty of teams interested in the TWC Sports client.

Strengths/Pros

Hudson, who turned 38 in July, is as seasoned a veteran as there is on the free agent market, but that experience doesn't come at the cost of greatly diminished results. Hudson's 3.97 ERA this season was roughly league average (97 ERA+), but it was also largely the product of a slow start and abnormally low strand rate. Hudson pitched to a 5.37 ERA through June 1, but over his final 10 starts in 2013, he compiled a 2.73 ERA and 50-to-19 K/BB ratio in 69 2/3 innings. He worked at least seven innings in eight of those contests. Advanced metrics like FIP (3.46), xFIP (3.56) and SIERA (3.75) all feel his ERA should have been lower.

Hudson has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 55 percent, and you'd have to go back to 2006 to find the last time that he averaged more than three walks per nine innings. Both of those traits help keep his pitch counts low, allowing him to work deep into games. Hudson personifies the "bulldog" mentality, as he's averaged 6 2/3 innings per start over his 15-year career, and that hasn't changed much of late; he's averaged 6.5 innings per start over the past four seasons. Hudson is more than just an innings eater though, as he's only posted an ERA north of 4.00 twice in his 15-year Major League career.

Given his age and his injury, the Braves don't figure to extend a qualifying offer, meaning that Hudson won't require the sacrifice of a draft pick this offseason. Despite the fact that his season ended in July, Hudson is scheduled to be 100 percent by early- to mid-November, so teams will be able to get a look at him early rather than waiting until after the New Year.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hudson's never been much of a strikeout pitcher, and that's unlikely to change at this stage of his career. His 2013 K/9 rate of 6.5 was the fourth-highest single-season mark of his career and his second-highest since 2002. Teams with questionable infield defense will likely be a bit more wary of Hudson.

While this season's injury was of a fluky nature, it still marks the third time since 2008 that Hudson has undergone surgery. He had Tommy John back in August of 2008 and underwent back surgery to repair a herniated disc in November of 2011 — an operation that cost him the first month of the 2012 season. Hudson has typically been healthy throughout his career, but teams may try to use the fact that he's spent time on the DL in four of the past six seasons as leverage.

Hudson has begun to see a slight drop in his velocity as well. After averaging 90-91 mph from 1999-2011, he's failed to crack the 90 mph plateau in 2012-13, though he was close this season (89.7 mph). He's still remained effective working in the 89 mph range, but further decline could be problematic. He'll turn 39 next July, so his age will also be a factor in negotiations. He joins Hiroki Kuroda and Bartolo Colon as the oldest free agent starters in this year's class.

Personal

Tim and his wife, Kim, make their home in Peachtree City — about 30 miles from Atlanta's Turner Field. They have two daughters and a son. In 2009, he founded the Hudson Family Foundation, which has raised more than $400K, primarily for children with health issues throughout Alabama and Georgia. Hudson is known as a natural leader in the clubhouse and gained that reputation early in his career. He enjoys displaying his excellent golf skills in the offseason and spending time at his personal ranch in his native state of Alabama.

Market

Given his age, Hudson seems likely to prioritize winning teams with his eyes set on a World Series. Hudson is a veteran of six postseasons between the A's and Braves, but he's never been a part of a team that won a playoff series. All six times he's gone to the postseason, his team has lost in the Division Series. Still, that postseason experience and Hudson's strong track record will appeal to teams, particularly if they have a top-heavy rotation and would like to add some balance to the middle ranks. He and agent Paul Cohen won't have a difficult time drumming up interest around the league.

Given the amount of time he's spent with the Braves, the team's strong core and his Georgia home, Hudson's preference may be to remain in Atlanta. However, the Braves' wealth of young starting pitching could lead GM Frank Wren to make a tough decision and prioritize other areas of need. Hudson would be a nice addition to probable contenders like the Dodgers, A's, Pirates, Rangers and Nationals. He may prefer to try to pitch closer to the southeast portion of the country than head to a West Coast contender, given his strong family ties in the region.

Expected Contract

I expect Hudson to prioritize a winning environment over maximizing his salary (he's already earned $98MM+ in his Major League career). He could follow the route that other veterans such as Colon, Kuroda and Andy Pettitte have taken in recent years, signing one-year deals with contenders in search of a deep postseason run. His injury hurts his stock, but given the quick recovery timeline and the fact that it's not an elbow or shoulder ailment, it shouldn't force him to take a dramatic pay cut. Though the right two-year deal could be appealing, I expect that Hudson will sign a one-year, $9MM contract this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Edward Mujica

By Steve Adams | October 8, 2013 at 8:51am CDT

Edward Mujica entered the season as a solid middle reliever/setup man but quickly found himself thrust into the closer's role after Jason Motte went down with Tommy John surgery and Mitchell Boggs collapsed as Motte's successor. Many felt the ninth inning should go to flamethrowing 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal, but Mujica silenced critics for much of the season by thriving in the role and upping his free agent stock accordingly.

Strengths/Pros

Few things in baseball are more frustrating than watching a relief pitcher come in and issue multiple walks; that's something Mujica's managers, teammates and fans virtually never have to worry about. Over the past four seasons, Mujica has allowed 37 walks in 275 2/3 innings (1.21 BB/9), but nine of those were intentional. Mujica will put a batter aboard via an unintentional free pass about once every 10 innings. As such, he has a pristine 1.001 WHIP dating back to 2010. The only "free agent" reliever who really comes close to matching Mujica in control is Mariano Rivera, and he won't be signing anywhere this winter.

Over that same four-year stretch, Mujica has a 47.2 percent ground-ball rate, and opponents are batting just .230 against him. Put simply, Mujica does a better job at keeping hitters off the basepaths than most relievers in the game.

Mujica earned just $3.2MM this season, so a qualifying offer would be a tremendous increase in his salary and is therefore highly unlikely. He won't come tied to draft pick compensation, and at age 29, he's one of the youngest free agent relievers on the market. He's also highly durable, having just one DL stint throughout his big league career; that injury was the result of a broken toe suffered when he was struck by a batted ball.

Weaknesses/Cons

The average big league reliever has averaged about eight strikeouts per nine innings over the past four seasons. Mujica has, in turn, whiffed 7.4 hitters per nine innings over that four-year stretch and has dropped to 6.4 strikeouts per nine frames in 2013 (while the MLB average for relievers has risen to 8.3). His low punchout total is a bit curious given his well above-average swinging strike rate (12.5 percent in 2013 and 11 percent for his career).

Advanced metrics like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.53) and SIERA (3.25) don't necessarily back up Mujica's 2.78 ERA. His .263 BABIP is unusually low, although it's fair to wonder if it's actually a sustainable mark; he's had a BABIP south of .270 in each of the past four seasons. If that's the case, then it's likely that sabermetric stats undervalue him, as they measure him against the league average rather than his own career norms.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Mujica is his poor finish to the season. He carried a 1.73 ERA into September but crumbled in the season's final month, allowing nine runs on 18 hits and a pair of walks over his final 7 1/3 innings. That prolonged meltdown knocked him out of the team's closer spot will likely be brought up in contract discussions this offseason.

Personal

Mujica and his wife, Erika, reside in Yagua, Venezuela, per the Cardinals's media guide. The couple welcomed their first child, Brianna, into the world in July 2012. Mujica is often described as fun-loving, doing things like making custom t-shirts for his teammates with the Marlins to keep the clubhouse light (per MLB.com's Joe Frisaro).

Market

Many teams will be on the lookout for bullpen help this winter, and Mujica is one of the handful of available relievers that will come with ninth inning experience. While many maintain that ninth inning experience isn't a prerequisite for closers ("closers are made, not born"), Mujica's agent, Wil Polidor of Octagon, can boast that his client racked up 37 saves in his first season as a closer and should be compensated for that big number.

Teams don't pay for saves quite as much as they did a few years ago, but there are still old-school general managers and front offices that want to hand the ball to a guy who's "been there before" in the ninth inning. The Tigers, Rangers, Rays, Yankees, A's and Cubs will all lose their closers to free agency or retirement this winter. Other teams like the Mariners, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Indians have seen great uncertainty in their late-inning situations this season. The Cardinals could also express interest in retaining Mujica, though with Motte on the mend and Rosenthal pitching well of late, he may not have an opportunity to regain the closer role in St. Louis.

Of course, there will also be plenty of teams with closers in place who will look to Mujica as a reliable, durable setup man.

Expected Contract

Mujica is the same age that Brandon League was when he signed his three-year, $22.5MM contract with the Dodgers last offseason. While that's proven to be an overpay, that didn't deter the Reds from giving another under-30 reliever, Jonathan Broxton, a similar three-year, $21MM contract a few months later. Neither of those relievers boasted lofty strikeout rates in their walk seasons, and I imagine that will be Polidor's target for Mujica, while the three-year, $16.5MM deal that Joaquin Benoit signed prior to the 2011 season will be the floor.

Back in May, I looked at Mujica's free agent stock and noted that a strong season in the ninth inning couls land him a deal similar to Broxton's. Despite his slide at the end of the season, I believe that a three-year, $21MM deal remains a reasonable expectation given his youth, durability, elite command and strong track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jesse Crain

By Steve Adams | October 2, 2013 at 9:15pm CDT

What was on track to be one of the best relief seasons in history was derailed when Jesse Crain hit the disabled list with a shoulder injury in early July. The 32-year-old right-hander had recently seen a streak of 29 straight scoreless appearances come to an end when he hit the DL, and while it was originally thought that he might be able to return prior to the trade deadline, he didn't throw another pitch in 2013. The Rays acquired Crain in a conditional deal at the deadline with an eye toward bolstering their bullpen down the stretch but don't have the luxury of turning to him in tonight's Wild Card playoff game against the Indians. He'll have to carry injury concerns surrounding his shoulder into free agency this offseason.

Pros/Strengths

If you're looking for strikeouts late in the game — and what team isn't? — Crain delivers. His K/9 rate jumped from 7.5 to 8.2 in his final year with the Twins, then rose to 9.6 in his first year with the White Sox and sat at 11.3 in 2012-13. Crain always had plus velocity, but his strikeouts took off when his slider usage jumped from 22 percent in 2009 to 43 percent in 2010. This year, he's scaled the usage of his slider back to around 30 percent in favor of his curveball, though PITCHf/x actually gives his curve negative value.

Since increasing his breaking ball usage in 2010, Crain has a 2.39 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.20 FIP and 3.16 SIERA in that time are both impressive as well. Crain's 3.65 xFIP punishes him by adjusting for a league-average homer-to-flyball ratio, but he's always shown a knack for keeping the ball in the yard, as evidenced by his career 7.4 percent HR/FB ratio.

He's shown the best command of his career in 2013's brief 36 1/3 inning sample size, walking only 11 batters (2.7 per nine innings).

Crain, of course, won't be tied to a qualifying offer, so interested parties won't need to worry about forfeiting a draft pick to sign him.

Weaknesses/Cons

The obvious red flag with Crain is his health. This isn't the first season in which he's missed significant time with a shoulder injury. Crain missed most of the 2007 season thanks to a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum in his right shoulder that required surgery. He's also had DL trips related to his shoulder in 2009 and 2012.

While the command he's displayed in 2013 is a plus, it's also a pretty major outlier for his career. Crain averaged four walks per nine innings over his past 295 2/3 big league innings (five seasons) before this season, so it's fair to wonder if he can keep that number under 3.0. His pristine ERA is also obviously unsustainable, though he did manage sub-3.00 ERAs in his first two seasons with the ChiSox, so he should still be plenty effective if healthy.

Personal

Crain was a three-sport athlete in high school, playing basketball and football in addition to baseball. He and his wife Becky have three children: Hunter, Avery and Caleb. Crain is active within the community each season, particularly with military-related events, per the White Sox media guide. In 2012, he visited veterans at the Walter Reed Medical center, participated in "Lunch with the Military" as part of White Sox charity week and participated in the "True Heroes" program at U.S. Cellular Field.

Market

As is the case every offseason, there will be no shortage of teams on the lookout for bullpen help. Crain's injury should limit him to a one-year deal, which would mitigate the risk for contending teams and make him appealing to non-contenders hoping to flip him at the trade deadline. While he hasn't served as a full-time closer to this point in his career (much of which was spent behind Joe Nathan), Crain's dominant season could net him some offers to pitch the ninth inning. That method has been successfully employed by the Astros (Jose Veras) and Pirates (Jason Grilli) recently.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal would be beneficial to Crain and would also mitigate risk for a signing team that had some hesitation surrounding his shoulder. Were he to sign a one-year deal with no option and pitch well for a full season, Crain could hit free agency as a 33-year-old next season — the same age at which Joaquin Benoit inked his three-year, $16.5MM contract with Detroit. Crain already has a three-year, $13MM contract under his belt, and another three-year deal wouldn't be out of the question after a strong 2014. Barring a severe setback in his recovery, I expect Crain to sign a one-year, $3.5MM contract with incentives based on innings pitched and perhaps games finished as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

By Tim Dierkes | October 1, 2013 at 9:04pm CDT

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop. The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011. He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage. He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits. A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008. He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08. Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs. Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus. He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014. As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011. In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season. It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL. Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances. Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst. Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable. From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward. A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs. His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary. Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached. It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan. He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions. Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it. His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May. Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him. In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs. Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher. Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits. Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves. Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick? The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years. The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley. Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so. ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year. The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so. Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz

By Tim Dierkes | October 1, 2013 at 8:52am CDT

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label. He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.

Strengths/Pros

Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454). Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters. On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran. He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time. FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez. Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.

How about 2013? Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher. And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months. A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.

Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.

A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign. Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.

Weaknesses/Cons

As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms. Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year? One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training. It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year. Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January. His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.

On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.

Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average. Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so. A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.

Personal

Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos. He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.

Market

Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market. Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again. According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back. He knows we'd like to bring him back." The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies. Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense. They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference. If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.

Expected Contract

Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years. According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM. Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career. Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal. I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal. Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal. Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass. In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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