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AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Hyde, Elias

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Matt Duffy is slated to be the Rays starting third baseman, with newcomer Yandy Diaz also seeing time at the hot corner. Diaz figures to split his time between third, first and “eventually” the outfield, according to manager Kevin Cash. In terms of further offseason additions, pitching remains an eternal area of concern, though Cash is confident with the group they have now, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Signing a closer is not out of the question, but the trio of Jose Alvarado, Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo are likely to earn opportunity in the ninth. The Rays have consistently taken a depth approach to roster building, and it seems likely they will continue to avoid over-reliance on any one individual player (save maybe Blake Snell, who accepted his Cy Young award at the BBWAA award winners annual banquet this week). Topkin suggests an interesting trade target for the Rays in Ben Zobrist, and though it’s only speculation, Zobrist certainly fits the profile. If the Cubs are indeed listening to offers on the second baseman/outfielder, a return to Tampa would be one of the more intriguing matches. The acquisition of Zobrist (or a different veteran) would alleviate some urgency from less proven assets like Austin Meadows, Avisail Garcia and Ji-Man Choi, who as of now are being counted on to produce consistent offense in an AL East without much margin for error. Some rumblings from the depths of the AL East…

  • All signs point to a long process of development and roster building for new Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde, but it starts with the complex process of getting to know and evaluate the 58 guys scheduled to report to spring camp. Hyde hasn’t seen the Orioles live in action since July of 2017 with the Cubs, so it’s a lot of new names and faces for the first-time skipper. His plan: emphasize the simple. Per baltimorebaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff, Hyde’s philosophy starts and ends with a focus on the fundamentals, with sound defense and baserunning, and with a “workmanlike” and “positive” approach. Of course, striking the balance between workmanlike and positivity is much of the battle with a young squad sure to face its share of adversity, but as Hyde himself puts it, “that’s part of development, also.” Hyde is no stranger to rebuilds from his time with the Cubs – experience he will surely draw upon as he whittles the roster down to 25 by Opening Day.
  • There may be further additions to camp in coming weeks for Hyde to consider, per the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli. This winter has unfurled another late-developing free agent market, making for an especially slow offseason for a bargain-bin hunter like the Orioles. Still, GM Mike Elias is keeping his eye on some short-term additions, especially on the pitching side. They do not anticipate adding any multi-year free agents, but bringing in a veteran or two on one-year contracts makes sense for a team without much flippable talent currently on hand. There are innings to be had in Baltimore, for sure, though without much urgency, Elias is taking his time evaluating the available options. It’s not a sexy approach, and it’s certainly a data point on the increasingly complex debate about team spending, but it’s good to see the Orioles taking a long-term outlook to building up their talent base under a new regime.

Quick Hits: SoxFest, Banuelos, Rule Changes

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn recognizes there will be some disappointment and finger-pointing if the White Sox don’t come away with Manny Machado or Bryce Harper this offseason, but he’s not ready to say more about the ongoing negotiations than necessary. Hahn did flat-out reject the idea of signing both free agent stars, as two monster contracts would hamper the long-term flexibility to a harmful degree. While Hahn spoke openly about Machado rumors, he is unhappy with the number of leaks, both true and untrue, coming from the Southside, per the Athletic’s James Fegan. As irritating as the leaks are, Hahn assured the crowds at SoxFest that they will continue to confront leaks of all varieties with honesty. Fegan also notes that former top prospect Manny Banuelos has generated more hype than usual for an unestablished 27-year-old. The Sox preempted Banuelos’ minor league free agency by acquiring him via trade from the Dodgers in November. Banuelos has been around the block, spending time with the Braves and Yankees, starting six games for the former in 2015. He put together a solid campaign last season for the Dodgers’ Triple A affiliate, throwing 108 2/3 innings, with a 9-7 record, 3.73 ERA and 10.52 K/9 versus 3.48 BB/9. Now, rumblings from the league office, and more from SoxFest in Chicago…

  • Baseball’s offensive landscape has shifted due to record strikeout totals, increased bullpen usage, shorter stints from starting pitchers and more meticulous long-term bullpen management. These trends have been spotlit by the increased media attention paid to service time manipulation, most-famously in the case of Kris Bryant, as well as the Tampa Bay Rays’ recent revelation that has already made its way into common baseball parlance: the opener. In an effort to curb these trends, Major League Baseball is getting set to present the Players’ Association with rule change proposals that may include the institution of a pitch clock, reinstating the 15-day disabled list and increasing the amount of time an optioned player must spend in the minor leagues, back to 15 days from the current minimum of 10 – though nothing official has yet been released, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The league office could force feed these rule changes with a year’s notice, but Commissioner Rob Manfred is unlikely to use such an aggressive tactic. It will be up to the players, then, to decide whether these proposals are good for the game.
  • Of note, the league has made strides in quickening the pace of the game, as average 9-inning game times sped up from 3 hours, 5 minutes, 11 seconds in 2017, to 3 hours and 44 seconds last year. Trimming mound visits without a pitching change from 7.41 to 4.01 certainly had a hand in cutting out those 4+ minutes. Quantifying the impact of these changes is difficult, giving baseball circles more than enough fodder for debate, though it seems the “state of the game” conversations will continue throughout the next two years leading up to the expiration of the current CBA in 2021. 
  • White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper won’t kowtow to the wisdom of the opener anytime soon, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times. The way Cooper sees it, the role of the starter on the White Sox has not changed, and he still expects to get 6+ innings out of his guys. That’s been a tough ask of late as the Southsiders have built their staff from the ground up via development and trades. Next season is a key year for their young arms, as the trio of Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito look to cement their place in the rotation before the arrival of the next wave of high profile prospects like Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning, the latter two of whom are working their way back from injury. Ivan Nova rounds out the top four in Cooper’s rotation, with Dylan Covey in competition with Banuelos for the five slot. There are still plenty of arms on the free agent market, however, and GM Rick Hahn says the team is working on 3-4 potential acquisitions. Given the collective injury troubles plaguing Chicago’s cavalcade of young arms, it would not be surprising in the least to see one or two veteran arms brought into camp on cheap or minor-league deals. 

Harper & Machado Rumors: 1/9/19

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The free agent market as a whole is moving at a plodding rate. Somewhat surprisingly, perhaps, there also hasn’t been a ton of action surrounding superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Of course, with so much money at stake, perhaps it shouldn’t come as a shock that both players are taking some time to work out new deals.

The latest …

  • Heyman now indicates that Machado’s camp is looking not only for a $300MM+ offer but is still seeking a total guarantee that tops Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM record (Twitter links). Furthermore, he adds that while there’s been no indication from the Yankees that they’re formally out of the running for Machado, New York has not yet made an offer and isn’t willing to go anywhere all that close to $300MM in order to sign Machado. Obviously, all of that can change quickly with one decision from ownership, but it’s not an encouraging update for Yankees fans hoping to see Machado in the Bronx in 2019 and beyond.

Earlier Updates

  • Machado is still looking for an offer in excess of $300MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). The White Sox and Phillies are the only two teams known to have made formal proposals, neither of which have reached that value. Of course, the Philadelphia organization is reportedly set to put in another offer, the details of which remain unknown. The Yankees have also still yet to officially put anything on the table for Machado, Heyman adds.
  • Will there be significant movement? If so, when and by what mechanism? MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that the markets for Machado and Harper are “heating up.” As his sources have it, the Phillies are “turning up” their efforts for the former, while the Nationals have “momentum building” to bring back the latter. Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com also cites a sense of market movement, but he hears it’s the White Sox who are gaining “momentum” on Machado. Levine also mentions a fourth, unknown potential suitor for Machado, though Heyman claims there’s “still no word” of a shadowy pursuer.
  • Generally, there’s still a dearth of hard information on the various teams’ stances regarding these players. It’s still easy to imagine the negotiations evolving in any number of different ways. Still, it’s striking that so few teams appear to be involved. The entire situation is a “disgrace,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic argues (subscription link). He ticks through a variety of ballclubs that should be able to fit $30MM+ salaries and have cause to be involved, decrying a market situation in which “essentially just four teams [are] legitimately bidding for the game’s two best free agents.” On the same note, Jonah Keri of CBS Sports provides some anonymous opinions on the matter from well-placed league executives. There seems to be at least something of a consensus that teams are less interested than ever in exceedingly lengthy contracts, even for players of such relative youth, with a variety of other theories batted around regarding this duo in particular. The story also delves into broader market topics and is well worth a read.

Quick Hits: Olney’s Latest, Free Agent Market, Diamondbacks

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It’s been another slow winter for baseball’s veteran free agents, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Only six free agents have secured deals with more than two years fully guaranteed, none of whom have been over the age of 32, and there are over 200 unsigned free agents still seeking employment for the 2019 season. ESPN obtained a memo written by player agent Jeff Berry outlining some ideas on how to improve the troubling conditions that have developed in this labor market. Berry writes, “As advocates, our job is to fight for and protect player rights, and when necessary, try and help create solutions — not pointing fingers of blame and hoping things get better. And I wholeheartedly believe there are viable solutions to the core labor issues facing the game that can be remedied to the benefit of players, clubs and fans.” Take a look at the top remaining free agents available here, or track the market as a whole with MLBTR’s free agent tracker. For now, let’s take a look at a few of the specifics covered in Olney’s article, as well as some news from around the (slow-moving) winter market…

  • Refining or reforming current practices regarding service time manipulation and player arbitration are two of the most-often disputed topics, per Olney, but there are other issues at hand as well, including how some people within the industry are unhappy about the way teams use the disabled list. This issue also encompasses the promotion/demotion process termed “portfolio management,” or the process wherein teams shuffle their rosters for particular series matchups throughout the season. While these in-season roster moves make sense from a strategic baseball standpoint, players lose money as a result, often to no fault of their own. For instance, a reliever whose option has already been used in a season might be vulnerable to demotion if unavailable due to overuse (say, if he pitched in three consecutive days). Even if said player is brought back to the big leagues after a couple of days, he still loses a significant amount of major league pay during that span. Thus, such a player loses money – not despite performing effectively – but because he performed effectively. Obviously, given the complexity of even the single above circumstance, there is no shortage of issues for the players’ union to focus their attentions in advance of December 1, 2021 – the date the current CBA expires. 
  • Turning to rumblings about player movement, it’s unlikely the Arizona Diamondbacks bring A.J. Pollock back to the desert even if his free agency drags on longer than expected. Given the flexibility of their roster, however, the Dbacks have options to replace him, writes the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. The in-house alternatives may not be enough to call off the rebuild, but the number of roster iterations available gives GM Mike Hazen the time to make judicious decisions on the trade market. For example, Ketel Marte could move to center, with his spot at the keystone, then, filled by one of the attainable free agent second baseman on the market (DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie). Alternatively, Eduardo Escobar could fill Marte’s spot at second should the Diamondbacks acquire a new third baseman (Jake Lamb would be expected to handle first, as is probably the case regardless). Given the absolute dearth of starting options available in free agency, if Marte stays at second, a center field replacement would likely come via trade. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to surrender much in the way of prospects at this stage of their rebuild, which makes finding a trade partner tricky, though not impossible. Their best bet might be to target a young veteran who may still have some upside. Specifically, Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals would be an intriguing player to see given 500 at bats, as might Keon Broxton of the Brewers. 

Quick Hits: Padres, Rule 5, Twins

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The San Diego Padres were busy this week in shaping their 40-man roster ahead of December’s Rule 5 draft. The release of former prospect Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva’s transpacific journey to the Yomiuiri Giants prefaced further roster reshaping via a pair of minor-league swaps. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reviews the prospects in those deals and others involved in swaps from this past week: Walker Lockett, Ignacio Feliz, Colten Brewer, Esteban Quiroz, Rowan Wick, Jason Vosler, Jordan Foley, Jefry Valdez and Tanner Anderson. While these moves appear minor, many of these players will have the opportunity to make an impact for pennant contenders next fall if they can impress their new gatekeepers in Cleveland, Colorado, New York, Boston and Chicago, respectively. Further Rule 5 news and more from around the league…

  • MLB.com picks intriguing candidates that could be selected from each team in December’s Rule 5 draft. Though it requires patience and a roster spot, the Rule 5 draft has been a viable resource in team building, especially for worst to first hopefuls who are closer to the former than the latter. Notably, the Cubs and Astros, two recent exemplars of roster renovation, each took advantage of the process by snatching players (Hector Rondon and Marwin Gonzalez, respectively) who made significant contributions to their title campaigns.
  • By the middle of last season, Twins’ chief baseball officer Derek Falvey was already preparing for the possibility that Joe Mauer might retire, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (subscription link).  The Twins continue to explore every option at first base, including moving struggling slugger Miguel Sano from third to first. One path they are unlikely to traverse is trading for a one-year rental like Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt. The focus of the 2019 season in Minnesota will be as much about monitoring the rebound efforts of Sano and center fielder Byron Buxton as making a push for the playoffs, and with such uncertainty around their two high-ceiling stars, Falvey and company aren’t ready for an all-in move like trading for Arizona’s All-Star first baseman. Still, seeking a multi-year option at first base does not equate to youth, necessarily, as they are open to players like Carlos Santana or recently-DFAed C.J. Cron, each of whom would have two years of team control if acquired.
  • Elsewhere around the infield, the Twins are open to engaging Jorge Polanco’s positional flexibility as well. Polanco and Sano are currently penciled in at shortstop and third base, but that could change depending on their offseason acquisitions. For now, they are in the market for an offensive-minded second baseman, in which case Polanco would stay at short. There are more than a few viable short-term options on the free agent market to keep second base warm for prospect Nick Gordon, who was recently added to the 40-man roster. You can check out MLBTR’s full Offseason Outlook for the Twins here.
  • In the dugout, Bill Evers rounds out Rocco Baldelli’s staff as the major league catching coach. Evers, 64, is a 30-year coaching veteran with experience as a bench coach, manager, and minor-league field coordinator. He managed Baldelli when he was a player in Triple-A back in 2002, a relationship redolent of Alex Cora’s hiring of Ron Roenicke as his bench coach. Roenicke, too, managed his future helmsman when Cora was a prospect coming up in the Dodgers system.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado

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The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…

  • Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
  • Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
  • The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
  • Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
  • Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
  • For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
  • As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado’s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.

NL Notes: Phillies, Cubs, Marlins

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The Phillies have done a good job of avoiding toxic contracts, but they also don’t have much in the way of homegrown stars in the upper levels of the minors, Matt Gelb of the Athletic notes. It seems obvious, then, that the route to improve this offseason is the free agent market, and they have been one of the teams with assumed interest in free agency’s biggest fishes, to wit, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That said, owner John Middleton once balked at a perceived lack of on-field hustle from former Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, which would seem at odds with a willingness to go all-in on Machado, given his growing reputation. Generational talents or not, it’s Middleton’s money, and it’ll ultimately be his decision whether or not Machado and Harper are worth the long-term investment. 

  • Regardless of what happens with Machado and Harper, the Phillies do not appear inclined to overreach in the secondary market, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, specifically as it pertains to their outfield, where in-house options Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, and Aaron Altherr are comparable-to and cheaper-than the middle class of talent available in free agency. GM Matt Klentak also says the Phillies are unlikely to explore the starting pitching market, despite potential interest in upgrading in that area. They are hypothetically interested in a left-handed starter, but Patrick Corbin, the top name on the market, figures to command more money than the Phillies are willing to spend on him. 
  • Cole Hamels is open to signing an extension with the Cubs, or at least that’s the impression 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine came away with after speaking with his agent, John Boggs. The Cubs have until Thursday to decide whether to pick up Hamels’ $20MM option for the 2019 season or let the Texas Rangers pay his $6MM buyout. His impressive turnaround with the Cubs (12 starts, 2.36 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) leads many to believe the team option will be exercised, but nothing official has come down from Chicago yet. If the Cubs do pick up the option, they could begin negotiating an extension as early as Friday with the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty. In theory, the Cubs could decline their option and negotiate a new contract with Hamels from there. This is unlikely, however, as the Rangers would be on the hook for the $6MM buyout, and they’d have grounds to file a grievance in that circumstance. However it happens, we should know by Thursday if Hamels will play his 2019 home games at Wrigley Field.
  • The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.

Market Notes: Darvish, Donaldson, Frazier

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There has been no shortage of chatter on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani over the past few weeks. We gathered up more news and rumors on each of these significant players yesterday — here and here, respectively. It’s fair to wonder whether their still-unsettled situations could be to blame for a notably sluggish start to the free agent market. The former, in particular, is a potential cause given that his massive contract and complicated trade situation might be hindering the development of the markets of premium free agents — though certainly other structural factors may be playing a far greater role, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues in a must-read piece.

  • Free agent righty Yu Darvish evidently still has a broad class of suitors, according to a report from Jim Bowden of Sirius XM (via Twitter). Six (unidentified) clubs have engaged on the veteran hurler, with about as many others seemingly having shown some degree of interest. That’s not surprising for a pitcher of Darvish’s stature — he entered the offseason atop MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents — but it does suggest that the back-and-forth is only just getting underway.
  • Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has explored the hypothetical possibility of the Blue Jays dangling star third baseman Josh Donaldson in trade. He first posited that Toronto could match up with the Cardinals in a swap that might allow both teams to maximize their resources and stay in contention. (Of course, this is presented as analysis, not a report of actual discussions.) And yesterday, Cameron argued that Donaldson might not bring maximum value if he’s ultimately shopped at the deadline (supposing, of course, that the Jays end up in a selling posture). Other premium hot corner rentals could also be available this summer, Cameron notes, and it seems unlikely that there’ll be a whole lot of demand.
  • Third baseman Todd Frazier is likely to plug a gap for one of the few contenders that does need a new option there. But he’s also still interested in returning to the Yankees, he tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Of course, that’s an organization that may well decide not to add at that position; we covered just that subject in some detail about a month back. Frazier says it’d be “great” to remain in the Bronx, but also suggests he may be resigned to finding a new home, noting that he “understand[s] the business” side of things.

Poll: Which Free Agent Will Sign The Largest Contract?

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The hot stove season has started off lukewarm, and we might not see a true rush of activity until the rumors surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani finally lead to resolutions of some kind. But when the dominoes start falling, we’re highly likely to see a few free agents sign nine-figure deals.

MLBTR released our annual Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article early this month, and right-hander Yu Darvish sits atop the list with a predicted $160MM guarantee. Despite a career-low strikeout rate (and a well-documented implosion in the playoffs), Darvish remains an elite arm with a great track record of success, including an average of 3.80 fWAR across his five full MLB seasons. Though he hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, the Dodgers free agent starter still managed double-digit strikeouts per nine innings this past season while allowing only 2.80 walks per nine. In case there was any doubt about his durability following a major surgery, Darvish threw 186 2/3 innings in 2017, and added several more during L.A.’s playoff run. Of course, his famously horrific World Series performance leaves a stain on an otherwise solid campaign. That, along with a steady decline in his full-season ERA and xFIP across the past four campaigns, could potentially leave some of his suitors uneasy about signing him to a lengthy contract.

Even though J.D. Martinez didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2017, he still finished 44th in MLB with 3.8 fWAR. His .690 slugging percentage was the highest in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and a full 59 points higher than second-place Stanton. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has mashed 128 homers, good for 10th in all of baseball across the past four years. He also ranks in the top ten in slugging percentage (2) and wRC+ (5) during that span. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking a $210MM guarantee for Martinez, dubbing him “King Kong” and referencing his power and batting average numbers. Of course, Martinez comes with plenty of negatives as well. He’s only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career. He’s also a defensive liability; Martinez has posted absolutely deplorable UZR, DRS and Inside Edge Fielding numbers over the past two years.

Eric Hosmer is the youngest of this group, having just turned 28 in October. He’s never logged fewer than 547 plate appearances in a full season, either. His relative youth and durability means he’s almost certain to get the longest contract, though that doesn’t mean the largest total guarantee. Interestingly, agent Scott Boras is trying to work his intangibles, such as clubhouse presence and media skills, into teams’ valuations of Hosmer. In 2017, Hosmer posted a career-high 4.1 fWAR and tied last year’s personal best with 25 homers. That he’s entering the free agent market following the best season of his career bodes well for him. However, his value could get dragged down by the fact that the free agent first base crop is particularly deep this year. If other first basemen sign quickly, Hosmer could lose suitors (and leverage) in a hurry, which could drive down his price.

What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

10 Bounceback Pitcher Candidates Still Available In Free Agency

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By this point, the free agent market has thinned considerably, especially at its upper reaches. But there remain plenty of interesting players still available.

Looking through the list of unsigned players, one finds a number of recently high-performing pitchers who can likely be had on relatively (or very) modest deals. Achieving truly adequate pitching depth remains one of the game’s elusive pursuits, so there’s always opportunity for arms.

Here are some of the most intriguing names still available, featuring five starters and five relievers:

Tyson Ross: It came as a surprise when the Padres elected to non-tender Ross rather than paying him a repeat of his $9.6MM arbitration salary in his final season of eligibility, but that move leaves the 29-year-old available for other teams to take a risk. While organizations may prefer to attempt to secure multiple years of control if they roll the dice on the health of his ailing shoulder, Ross will no doubt prefer a single-season commitment. He carried a 3.07 ERA over 516 2/3 innings from 2013-15, so the upside is evident, and it’s no surprise that most of the league has some degree of interest.

Brett Anderson: Soon to turn 29, Anderson did not show well in his brief return from back surgery last year. But he turned in 180 1/3 frames of 3.69 ERA ball in 2015, and has generally been rather good when healthy, so there could still be something left in the tank. While Anderson’s extensive injury history is a major deterrent, organizations could reasonably hope that he can at least provide some useful innings during whatever stretch he is able to contribute.

Doug Fister: Entering his age-33 season after two straight duds, it’s tough to view Fister in quite the same light that one could have a year ago, when he seemed like a solid bounceback bet. That being said, he isn’t far removed from being a quality mid-rotation starter, and was at least able to turn in 32 starts in a healthy 2016 season. Unlike the other pitchers on this list, there isn’t an immediate injury to blame for the diminished value, though perhaps that also means he comes with a greater expectation of near-term contribution. If Fister can restore some of his lost groundball luster, perhaps he’d again rate as a useful rotation piece.

Nathan Eovaldi: Teams won’t be able to expect anything out of Eovaldi in 2017, as he’s expected to miss the entire year after Tommy John surgery. But he hasn’t even turned 27 and did show a personal-best 97.0 mph average fastball and 9.3% swinging-strike rate in 2016, so he remains an intriguing candidate to receive a rehab-and-return contract.

Henderson Alvarez: The long-term health outlook is perhaps even cloudier in the case of Alvarez, who couldn’t make it back to the majors in 2016 from shoulder issues. But he, too, has yet to reach his 27th birthday and he was able to provide 187 innings of 2.65 ERA ball as recently as 2014. And Alvarez did make 11 minor-league appearances last year, so there’s at least some reason to hope that he can contribute in the season to come.

Greg Holland: An obvious candidate for this list, Holland is perhaps the most fascinating relief arm still left unsigned. Once one of the game’s most dominant pitchers, the 31-year-old figures to sign with expectations of a full 2017 campaign after finishing up his TJ rehab. Like Ross, Holland has drawn wide interest and ought to be able to generate a variety of interesting and relatively lucrative opportunities.

Luke Hochevar: Now far removed from an impressive 2013 season in which he successfully transitioned from struggling starter to late-inning pen arm, Hochevar will be attempting to return from thoracic outlet surgery (after missing 2014 due to a Tommy John procedure). There’s plenty of uncertainty in the outlook for the 33-year-old, but he did put up 9.6 K/9 against just 2.2 BB/9 while working to a 3.86 ERA over 37 1/3 innings in 2016, and could be expected to return early in 2017.

Drew Storen: Still just 29, Storen was an electric reliever as recently as 2015, when he posted 11.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 55 innings while working to a 3.44 ERA that metrics viewed as somewhat unfortunate. Though he struggled last year and showed a worrying drop in his average fastball velocity (from 94.1 mph in the season prior to 92.3 mph in 2016), Storen still put up a 10.5% swinging-strike rate that landed right at his career average. He also closed out the year by yielding just three runs in his final 17 innings while posting a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Aaron Barrett: After TJ surgery derailed his sophomore 2015 season, Barret’s return was cut short with an elbow fracture. On the other hand, Storen’s former pen mate in D.C. owns a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 over his 70 career MLB frames, with a 13.1% lifetime swinging-strike rate driven by his 93 to 94 mph heater and wipeout slider. Whatever team takes a shot on his future can also pick up plenty of affordable future control over Barrett, who’ll soon turn 29.

Charlie Furbush: Rotator cuff surgery is never good news for a pitcher, and returning from that procedure presents a major hurdle for the 30-year-old. But quality southpaws are always in high demand, so there’s much to be gained in the event that he can get back on track. Over his last 175 1/3 MLB frames, compiled over 2012 through 2015, Furbush provided the Mariners with a 3.23 ERA and 10.3 K/9 versus 3.0 BB/9.

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