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Free Agent Profile: Andrew McCutchen

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A busy month of December has seen the free agent cupboard mostly cleared out. Yet as we begin 2023 there are still a few interesting options on the open market for teams looking for upgrades heading into the new season. Of course, many teams will look to the trade market over the next month or two – particularly if they’re after impact options – but good deals can still be found in free agency.

One such player is a former MVP, who remains a threat at the plate and is well-regarded as a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Andrew McCutchen may not be the same player that went to five-straight All Star games with the Pirates, but he could still help a lot of teams. There was a report in early December that the Rays and Dodgers had interest in McCutchen, but it’s been quiet since. The Dodgers have since signed J.D. Martinez, which may rule them out, but the Rays could still feasibly have a spot for him.

McCutchen, 36, spent the past season with the Brewers on a one-year, $8MM deal. They’d signed him on the back of three years in Philadelphia, which culminated in McCutchen hitting .222/.334/.444 with 27 home runs over 574 plate appearances. It was a solid enough season, but what perhaps got Milwaukee’s attention was the way in which McCutchen torched left-handed pitching in 2021, slashing .293/.405/.622 in 195 plate appearances against southpaws. It was particularly pronounced in 2021, but McCutchen’s splits have favored hitting against left-handers over his career.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, it wasn’t the case in 2022. McCutchen would hit just .221/.303/.435 against left-handers in Milwaukee, contributing to an overall line of .237/.316/.384 overall line of 580 plate appearances. While his walk and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction in recent times, they were still reasonable marks, as he struck out 21.4% of the time against a 9.8% walk rate. That was good for a wRC+ of 98, a couple of ticks below the league average but the first time it had dipped below 100 in his career. He did enjoy a 262 plate appearance tear in the middle of the summer, where he crushed 11 home runs and hit at an .868 OPS. Of course, the fact that his overall season mark was well below that suggests there were some very lean runs in there as well.

Perhaps the biggest concern from McCutchen’s season was the drop in power. He slugged 27 home runs a year prior with the Phillies, but hit just 17 last season. American Family Field in Milwaukee is generally less favorable to home run hitters than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, but it was still a significant drop in long balls. In McCutchen’s defense, his exit velocity and HardHit% were both roughly the same as a year earlier, so he’s still making plenty of solid contact.

On the defensive side of things, McCutchen has spent most of his time in the DH spot in recent years, but can still play the outfield, and enjoyed a bit of success there in 2022. He was worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved in a small sample of 268 1/3 innings, while he also spent a small amount of time in right and center. He did make 82 appearances in the DH spot and his days of being an everyday outfielder are probably over, but he’s by no means a liability in the field and his numbers in 2022 could encourage a new team to give him a larger workload in the field in 2023.

McCutchen will likely sign another one-year deal, quite possibly in the same range as the $8MM salary he took home in 2022. At this stage of free agency, most of the players available have some flaws, but McCutchen could still work as a solid option for a number of teams. He still has ~20 home run power, draws walks at a bit above the league average rate and doesn’t strike out too often. While he’s not likely to be a team’s everyday outfielder, he could shift around the corner outfield spots, making DH appearances and allowing teams to spell their starting outfielders on a regular basis. Further to that, McCutchen’s got a good clubhouse reputation and could perhaps work on a contending team with a slightly younger roster. While he’s unlikely to be a difference maker at this point, teams could do worse than bringing in the veteran to deepen their roster for the upcoming season.

Farhan Zaidi: “Unlikely” That Giants Can Circle Back To Carlos Correa Deal

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed reporters (including ESPN and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) for the first time since the team’s $350MM deal with Carlos Correa fell through due to concerns raised in the physical. Correa has since agreed to a $315MM deal with the Mets, but they too are concerned by the player’s physical and that signing has not been made official.

It’s been quiet since reports emerged on Christmas Eve that the Mets had concerns over his physical, with the last report stating the teams were working through things and a deal with New York still appeared “likely”. That’s not stopped a few other teams checking in on the situation, and Zaidi confirmed that the Giants have also checked in with Correa’s agent Scott Boras.

“We’ve had some conversations. Since then, obviously, you know, we’ve been in touch with Boras on other players as well. But our understanding and, as it’s been reported, they’re focused on a deal elsewhere at this point. So I think chances of a deal with us at this point are pretty unlikely based on their position,” Zaidi said.

Correa’s deal with San Francisco falling through shocked the baseball world. The Giants had scheduled a press conference to introduce their new star, but postponed that to further investigate Correa’s physical. That set off a chain of events that came together quickly, and within 24 hours Correa had agreed to a deal with the Mets. Zaidi confirmed that the Giants and Correa’s camp had different views on the medical review, but said they maintain a strong relationship with Boras.

“I was on the phone with Scott Boras on the Monday that we did Carlos’ physical right when his plane landed in San Francisco at 5 p.m., and those conversations continued from that point, so any suggestion that this was an 11th-hour thing is just not accurate. As soon as we had information, we shared it. We have a good working relationship with Scott Boras and his agency.”

The off-season has surely been a frustrating one for the Giants organization. They came into the winter in search of a new face of the franchise, and make a strong push to sign top free agent Aaron Judge. The reigning AL MVP would turn them down to re-sign with the Yankees on a nine-year, $360MM deal. They quickly pivoted to Correa, and just six days after news broke that Judge had agreed to return to New York, reports emerged that the Giants and Correa were in agreement on a 13-year deal.

The team has still been active this winter, adding Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to their rotation, Taylor Rogers to the bullpen and Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to the outfield. San Francisco certainly has a stronger roster as a result of those moves, but they do lack the superstar they coveted coming into the off-season, and the free agent market no longer has any stars.

“One of the unfortunate aspects of the offseason is there’s been — and maybe this is inevitable given the players — a lot of attention paid to players that we wound up not signing rather than the players that we have signed,” Zaidi said.

One added layer to the Correa saga is what it means for long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford. He’s entering the final year of his contract, and is owed $16MM in 2023. A Correa signing would have likely meant that Crawford moved to third-base, but it seems with the Correa deal off he’ll be manning short in his 13th season in San Francisco.

“I’m sure it was a frustrating and confusing period for him, but I also said we had to explore every opportunity to improve this team, including the group of shortstops that were out there, All-Star-caliber players that we all felt would really improve our team. I think Brandon was aware that adding one of these players was a possibility. It didn’t work out and he’s our shortstop now and we want and expect to be a playoff team.”

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?

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With Nathan Eovaldi agreeing to a deal with the Rangers, the top remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market (per MLBTR’s rankings) is Michael Wacha. In fact, Wacha is the only remaining starting pitcher left from the Top 50 free agents.

As things stand, the Orioles are the only known team to have checked in on the 31-year-old, who’s coming off his best season in a while for the Red Sox. Wacha made 23 starts for Boston last season, working to a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings. That mark did come with a fairly pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate, and a solid 6% walk rate. Further, his .260 opponent BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune was involved, and sure enough Wacha’s FIP sat at 4.14 for the season. Nonetheless, it was a far more improved showing than in recent times for Wacha.

Between 2020-21, Wacha tossed 158 2/3 innings for the Mets and Rays, working to a 5.39 ERA. Those two seasons came with better strikeout rates, but his HardHit% were comfortably the highest of his career, as were his home run rates.

Wacha was once a highly touted prospect in the Cardinals system. Drafted 19th overall in 2012, Wacha made his big league debut as a 21-year-old in 2013. Over his first three seasons, he’d toss 353 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, and picked up the 2013 NLCS MVP award for his efforts in that series against the Dodgers. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but kept the ball on the ground enough, limited the walks and induced enough soft contact to be a highly effective starter.

Those three seasons turned out to comfortably be Wacha’s best, and since the 2016 campaign he’s hurled 800 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. He’s signed one-year deals the past three seasons, but that solid campaign last season could well see him get a modest two-year guarantee this winter. MLBTR predicted a two-year $16MM pact for Wacha and there certainly seems a good chance he matches that at least, particularly given how well starting pitching has done in free agency this winter.

As for who could be interested, the Orioles are not only the only reported team to have checked in (though there have surely been others), but they do make a lot of sense as well. They have been linked to a number of mid-tier starters this winter, and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM pact. Still, the backend of their rotation has a few options but most are light on MLB experience and adding someone like Wacha would provide them with a bit more stability.

The Angels and Padres were both linked to Eovaldi before he signed with the Rangers, so it makes sense to take a look at them as possible fits for the next best option. The Angels have a pretty solid five-man rotation, with Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson at the top, and southpaws Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding it out. LA has often worked with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload though, and Wacha could fit in nicely as another starting option for them.

The Padres, too, appear to have the foundations of a starting five in place, but like the Angels could do with a sixth option. Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are locked in to the first three spots, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo penciled in to fill out the rotation. Reports have suggested San Diego plans to utilize the latter two as starters, but both have typically worked as relievers recently, so adding Wacha could give them some insurance against those two failing to lockdown a starting spot.

A return to Boston could also be an option. They do have Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock lined up to handle the starting duties. Yet Sale and Paxton have had a wretched run of injuries (and the team is reportedly listening to offers on Sale), while Whitlock has fared much better in the bullpen. Youngster Brayan Bello is also an option to join the rotation at some point, so there’s not a clear need to add someone like Wacha, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he did wind up back in Boston.

While those three teams all have ambitions to compete in 2023, Wacha could also be a fit on rebuilding teams. Even if it requires a two-year deal to sign him, a rebuilding club could hope that he builds off his solid 2022 campaign and turns himself into a valuable trade chip either at the deadline or next winter. At worst, it’s unlikely it’d be an onerous commitment to sign him and even if he doesn’t pitch himself into a trade chip he could still work as an innings-eater for a rebuilding team with a younger roster.

In that case, perhaps a team like the Reds could be amenable to bringing him in if the price is right. Luis Cessa is the veteran in the Reds’ rotation as things stand, but he’s typically worked as a long reliever. Outside of Cessa, it’s a young rotation for all of uncertainty, and adding a veteran like Wacha could solidify things and take a bit of the pressure off their younger arms.

There’s a fair few other possible fits, and any of the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox could make some sense. Where do you see Wacha signing this winter?

Mets Looking To Add Third Starting Pitcher, Interested In Ross Stripling

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The Mets have already been active in the starting pitching market this winter, adding Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.6MM deal before bringing in Jose Quintana for two-years, $26MM. Yet they’re not stopping there, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that the team is telling agents at the Winter Meetings they plan to obtain a third starter this off-season. Sherman cites Japanese star Kodai Senga and Ross Stripling as two players the team is interested in, while also exploring other options on the trade and free agent market.

While the Mets have been linked to a number of starting pitchers this winter beyond the two they’ve signed, their reported interest in Stripling is new. He’s a free agent after a strong platform year in Toronto, where he tossed 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. He struck out batters at a below-average 20.7% clip, but limited the walks at an impressive 3.7% rate. He doesn’t throw the ball especially hard, mixing in a low-90s fastball with a slider and changeup, as well as a curveball on occasion.

While Stripling, 32, certainly showed enough to be offered starting roles, he’s spent much of his career with the Dodgers and Blue Jays in a hybrid role between the bullpen and rotation. Indeed, just this season Stripling was only pushed into a full-time starting role by the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu. He did average just five frames per outing, but he was thrust into a starting role from the bullpen and starters are going shorter nowadays anyway. Nonetheless, with a full pre-season to ramp up towards a starters workload, it’s certainly possible Stripling handles a bigger workload next year.

Senga would represent a higher upside, but also vastly more expensive option should the Mets go down that route. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $18MM deal for Stripling, whereas Senga was tabbed to get a five-year, $75MM contract. While owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend aggressively to build a contender, their recent moves have taken their luxury tax payroll to an estimated $306MM, and as a second-time offender they’ll pay a 90% tax on any salary over the $293MM mark. Put simply, signing someone like Stripling or Senga would, as things stand, mean the Mets have to pay almost double whatever annual salary is written on their contract.

One option would be to consider ways to lower their payroll, and Sherman does mention that the signing of a third starter could motivate the Mets to trade someone like Carlos Carrasco, who has one-year and $14MM remaining. While the idea of adding a pitching only to subtract another might appear counter-intuitive, the Mets would still be well positioned in their rotation with Verlander, Max Scherzer, Quintana, an external addition and probably David Peterson rounding out the five, with Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez providing depth.

White Sox Interested In Sean Murphy

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After a disappointing 81-81 campaign, the White Sox enter the off-season with some clear needs to tend to if they’re to bounce back into contention with their current core of players. Among them, the catcher position, and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports the team has inquired about the A’s Sean Murphy.

While an inquiry into a player’s availability falls well short of any meaningful momentum towards a deal, it is interesting to consider given the White Sox have the under performing Yasmani Grandal under contract for 2023 at the steep rate of $18.25MM, while Murphy is projected to make $3.5MM in his first season going through arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Murphy, 28, was drafted in the third round of the 2016 draft by Oakland. While his defensive prowess behind the plate was his big calling, his bat developed to the point where he quickly became one of the A’s top prospects. Since making his debut in 2019, he’s blossomed into one of the best catchers around and 2022 was his best season yet, as Murphy hit 18 home runs, slashed .250/.332/.426 and appeared in 148 games (116 at catcher). He cut back on his strikeouts this year, dropping them from around 25% for much of his career to 20.3% in 2022.

Defensively, Murphy receives strong marks for framing and ranked sixth in all of baseball on Statcast’s Catcher Framing Runs. He also ranked fifth in Pop Time – that is, the amount of time it takes the catcher to receive a pitch and get it to the base he’s throwing it to – and that resulted in him throwing out 19 of 61 potential baserunners.

As mentioned, Murphy is going through arbitration for the first time in 2022 and is expected to make a moderate $3.5MM salary. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign, so any team acquiring him would have him for three years. All told, the price for Murphy would be steep and given the free agent catching market is thin outside of Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, the A’s will surely be looking for a big trade haul if they are to move him.

The White Sox could certainly do with Murphy, given Grandal’s struggles this season. The recently-turned 34-year-old hit just .202/.301/.269 across 99 games, with an alarming drop in power the biggest cause for concern. Grandal never hit much for average, but was always an OBP machine who could slug 20-plus homers each year. He hit just five long balls this past season, and saw his HardHit rate drop almost 14% from a year ago.

There’s already been reports that Chicago’s payroll is expected to drop and the team would be more focused on trades than the free agent market. With that in mind, the team could look to shift Grandal and bring in Murphy, freeing up just under $15MM or so of salary. While Grandal had a poor season and has a hefty salary, there is only one year remaining so it’s not unreasonable to think that a team could be interested in acquiring him if the White Sox are willing to kick in a bit of cash or throw in an intriguing prospect too. That’s purely speculation though, and there’s no indication that the team is shopping Grandal.

Cardinals Notes: Wainwright, Arenado, Molina, Pujols

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Following yesterday’s 0-2 loss to the Phillies, the Cardinals’ magical 2022 season has drawn to a close. After an above-average first half going 50-44, the Cardinals moved into a higher gear, winning 43 of their final 68 games (.632 win percentage) to take the NL Central with authority. Pivoting towards the 2023 season, the Cardinals have two key players with decisions to make, and two players who are expected to formally announce their retirements.

One of the most important free agents for the Cardinals is 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who didn’t appear during the Cardinal’s Wild Card series. Wainwright, a rotation stalwart for the Cardinals since 2007, signed a 1-year, $17.5MM extension for the 2022 season on the heels of a strong 2020 and 2021 season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 272 innings. He followed those strong numbers in 2022 with a 3.71 ERA in 191 2/3 innings, following his trademark of limiting hard contact (87.8 MPH average exit velocity, 36.6 HardHit%). However, he was hit hard over his last five starts, giving up 35 hits and 19 runs over his last 23 2/3 innings.

Wainwright has yet to officially announce whether he will return for the 2023 season, but hinted that he has decided on his status, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Regardless, Wainwright is expected to release something soon, with the veteran saying postgame that “we should know pretty soon if something happens … if not, then it’s been a good run.” The 17-year veteran added that he did not “like not pitching in a playoff season,” before coyly saying that fans could take the statement one of two ways, “as it’s been a good run” or “as a motivation to never let that happen again,” per Goold.

The Cardinals’ other high-profile free agent Nolan Arenado is technically under contract through the 2027 season; however, he can opt out this offseason. Acquired from the Rockies in February 2021, Arenado has posted back-to-back All-Star seasons with the Cardinals, slashing a combined .273/.335/.513 while playing superb defense at the hot corner (30 Outs Above Average). Arenado’s 2022 season has been particularly strong, batting .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and 15 Outs Above Average.

Arenado has $144MM and five years remaining on his current contract, but he would be the clear-cut top third basemen on the free agent market. For his part, Arenado has previously stated that he’s “not opting out” and that he “will be coming back,” per Goold. He followed up these comments after yesterday’s game saying, “I love it here. I love the guys. I just feel like I fit well with this orgnaization.” Nevertheless, the seven-time All-Star will be 37 at the end of his current contract and may opt to find a longer agreement.

Elsewhere on the Cardinals, 19-year veteran Yadier Molina and 22-year veteran Albert Pujols are set to retire with the close of the 2022 season. Both legends in Cardinals’ lore, the duo won World Series titles with the Cardinals in 2006 and 2011, among numerous other awards throughout their careers. In a fitting moment, both players laced singles in their final at-bats at Busch Stadium.

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Winter Goals

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The Blue Jays would love to add an infielder to complement their current mix of young gloves in the dirt, but it’s not a necessity, says GM Ross Atkins, per Scott Mitchell of TSN. That includes, of course, a potential reunion with Marcus Semien, though having a versatile defensive player like Cavan Biggio on the roster gives Atkins some flexibility. Filling Semien’s spot at the keystone is the natural place to add an infielder, but Biggio could slide to second, opening the hot corner for a bigger fish like Matt Chapman of the A’s, whom Mitchell speculates could be a target.

Of course, injuries limited the 26-year-old Biggio to just 79 games last season and a .224/.322/.356 batting line, so an argument could be made to look for an upgrade at third base regardless of what happens at second. Wherever they make additions, for the second consecutive winter, the Blue Jays are no doubt buyers in this free agent market. If not another infielder, Toronto will surely explore rotation and bullpen upgrades, notes Mitchell.

Specifically, Atkins did not rule out getting a more established closer that might bump Jordan Romano from the role that he stepped into last season. Romano notched 23 games for the Jays last season, but he also picked up a handful of holds while only recording a single blown save. Steady as he was, there is no such thing as too many high leverage arms.

Shane Greene Drawing Interest

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Though it’s surprising that right-hander Shane Greene remains on the free agent market a month into the season, the former Brave is engaged in ongoing deliberations with multiple teams, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Heyman doesn’t give any indication as to who the interested parties might be, but there are any number of teams that could use another arm for the bullpen. Greene certainly has the experience to be an asset. The seven-year veteran owns a 4.38 career ERA/4.07 career FIP in 444 innings over 313 career games. He made 33 starts for the Yankees and Tigers over the first three seasons of his career, but settled in as a high-leverage reliever after that.

Though Greene saved 65 games for the Tigers from 2016 to 2019, the 32-year-old took on a setup role once transferred to a contender in Atlanta. The Braves deployed Greene most often in the eighth inning. In the year and a half since he was acquired from the Tigers for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte, Greene posted a 3.27 ERA/3.87 FIP over 51 1/3 innings for the Braves.

Nationals Will Make Extension Offers To Juan Soto, Trea Turner In Near Future

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The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann,  Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.

On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.

Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.

Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.

Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.

The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.

The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”

Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.

If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.

As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt.  Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.

One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.

Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders

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From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.

On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).

But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.

Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?

Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.

The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.

Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.

Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.

To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.

There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.

Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.

Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.

On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.

With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.

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