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Discussion: Kurt Suzuki Extension

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A month ago, CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban wrote that prelimary talks on an extension for Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki are underway.  However, Susan Slusser and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle heard differently from the catcher's agent.  Suzuki, 26, is eligible for arbitration for the first time after the season.  Let's look at possible comparables for an extension.  (Arb means arbitration, FA means free agent year).

  • Yadier Molina, Cardinals: Four-year, $15.5MM deal covers arb 1-3 and FA 1, with a club option on FA 2.  Received $9.25MM for three arb years.  Signed in January of '08.
  • Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks.  Three-year, $14.25MM deal covers arb 2-3 and FA 1, with a club option on FA 2.  Though deal did not cover all three arb years, Snyder received $9.6MM for them.  Signed in December of '08.
  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates.  Three-year, $11.5MM deal covers arb 1-3 with club options on FA 1-2.  Receives $10.7MM for three arb years.  Signed in December of '08.
  • Carlos Ruiz, Phillies.  Three-year, $8.85MM deal covers arb 1-3 with a club option on FA 1.  Received $8.35MM for three arb years.  Signed in Janunary of '10.
  • Kelly Shoppach, Rays.  Two-year, $5.55MM deal covers arb 2-3 with a club option on FA 1.  Will receive $7.2MM for three arb years, though arb 1 wasn't covered in the deal.  Signed in January of '10.
  • Chris Iannetta, Rockies.  Three-year, $8.35MM deal covers arb 1-3 with a club option on FA 1.  Will receive $7.85MM for three arb years.
  • Doumit, Ruiz, and Iannetta are the best comparables, in that they signed before their first arbitration seasons and relatively recently.  But unlike these three, Suzuki will have about 500 games under his belt when he reaches arbitration.  Even though they're all being compared as 3+ service time players, Suzuki will have a full season's worth of games (and the accompanying counting stats) more than the others.
  • Although Doumit was overpaid, Suzuki has a strong case to top his arbitration year salaries.  Suzuki's first free agent year could be in the $6-8MM range, whether it's guaranteed or a club option.  If Suzuki allows for a club option, he should seek a deal worth at least $12MM.  The option would be convenient for the A's, as top catching prospect Max Stassi may be ready by 2014.  From Suzuki's point of view, he'd get a buyout if the option is declined and reach free agency as a 30-year-old.

Discussion: Pablo Sandoval

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We haven't heard anything about the Giants considering a contract offer for third baseman Pablo Sandoval, but Tim mentioned him as possible extension candidate.

Sandoval, 23, burst onto the scene with a late season cameo in 2008, then finished seventh in the 2009 NL MVP voting when he hit .330/.387/.556 with 25 homers in his first full season. He won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season, but that doesn't mean San Francisco can't secure some cost certainty now. 

The best comparable for a contract extension might be David Wright, who inked a six year, $55MM deal in the middle of his second full season. The Mets' third baseman hit .306/.388/.523 with 27 homers in his first full season, and was hitting .308/.382/.545 on the August 2006 day he signed his deal. Sandoval started the 2010 season at nearly the same exact age that Wright started the 2006 season, but the biggest difference between the two is that Wright was a far safer bet to remain at third base long-term.

With a 5-foot-11, 245 lb. frame (that's what the team's official site says), Sandoval has a -2.3 career UZR at the hot corner, and is expected to slide over to first as he gets older and potentially gets even bigger. That's something the Giants will have to consider if they approach their best hitter with a contract, that it's easier to find a first baseman that hits like he does than a third baseman.

Wright's deal bought out his last remaining pre-arbitration year (for $1MM), his three arbitration years (for $22.5MM total), and two free agent years (for $29MM total). There's also a $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2013 season, which would have been Wright's third free agent year. That framework seems reasonable for Sandoval, though the Giants might not want to assume so much risk with a bad bodied player. Buying out his last four years of team control for $23MM or so with (ideally) a club option or two for some free agent years would make sense.

Discussion: Joey Votto Extension

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We haven't heard anything about the Reds considering an extension offer for first baseman Joey Votto, but he's high on our speculative list of candidates.

Votto, 26, finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2008 and followed with an even better performance in his second full season.  Unfortunately, issues related to the passing of Votto's father affected him early in '09.

Votto will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season.  The Reds signed him for $550K for 2010, throwing several extra tens of thousands his way in the name of goodwill.  Let's consider a few possible comparables for Votto:

  • Adam Lind recently signed a four-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays with three club options.  He gave up his three arbitration years for $15MM.  The option years cover his first three years of free agent eligibility and are in the $7-8MM range.  At this stage in their careers Votto has the batting average advantage, home runs are about even, and Lind wins in RBIs and runs.  Votto's other advantages: a strong rookie season and the ability to play a respectable first base.  Lind has split his time between left field and DH.
  • Kevin Youkilis signed a four-year, $41.125MM deal in January of '09.  The deal bought out two remaining arbitration years and two free agent seasons, with a club option on a third.  The difference is that Youkilis was less accomplished in every way when he reached arbitration for the first time, and the Red Sox didn't lock him up until a year later. 
  • Mark Reynolds was signed with 1689 plate appearances across roughly 2.8 seasons whereas Votto will have roughly 1870 across 3.2 seasons.  Plus Reynolds was signed a year prior to arbitration-eligibility.  Reynolds' three arbitration years went for $23.5MM, assuming the D'Backs pick up his 2013 option.
  • Prince Fielder gave up his first two arbitration years for $18MM.  This is another tough comp because with three years service time, Fielder outpaced where I project Votto to be in all categories except batting average.  Plus, Scott Boras drove a hard bargain and didn't give up Fielder's third arb year or any free agent years.
  • Ryan Zimmerman stacks up OK, although he had a .282 average and 58 home runs at the time of his deal against a projected .308 and 83 for Votto.  He gave up the same five-year slice of his career the Reds might crave for Votto, at a price of $45MM.
  • I think a five-year deal in the $50MM range would make sense for the Reds and Votto.  He'd give up his three arbitration years for roughly $22MM, plus a couple of free agent years for $14MM each.  Of course, a lot depends on Votto's 2010 season.  Keeping CHONE's rates but upping the at-bats to 575, Votto is projected for something like a .303 average, 29 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 85 runs.

Discussion: Chris Snyder

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In November of last year, the Diamondbacks thought they had found a taker for Chris Snyder when they agreed to ship him to Toronto for Lyle Overbay.  However, the Blue Jays got cold feet because of concerns over Snyder's surgically repaired back.  So, the deal was called off and Arizona was stuck paying the catcher $11.25MM over the next two seasons.

This season, the D-Backs say that they plan to give Snyder a healthy dose of playing time at catcher alongside Miguel Montero, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.  GM Josh Byrnes claimed back in February that the club was not looking to deal the 29-year-old.  Recently, however, a report suggested that Byrnes had him on the block – with the Brewers as a potential suitor.

Snyder was linked to the Mets prior to signing Rod Barajas as their primary backstop.  Talks reportedly ended because the Mets wanted Arizona to assume almost all of the $4.75MM Snyder is owed in 2010.

If Snyder can demonstrate that he has truly recovered from his back injury, then Arizona might be able to move the right-handed slugger without eating too much of his salary.  What teams could you see getting in the mix?

Discussion: Next Young Position Player To Be Extended

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In January, MLBTR's Mike Axisa named Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, and Wandy Rodriguez as candidates to be the next young starting pitcher to be extended.  Matt Cain, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, and Brett Anderson were among those mentioned by commenters.  We forgot to name Scott Feldman and Nick Blackburn, who actually were extended since Mike's article.

Today let's consider young position players who could soon by locked up.  Recent signees include Adam Lind, Mark Reynolds, Denard Span, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.

  • Joey Votto, Reds:  Votto will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season.  If the 26-year-old approaches his 2009 production, the Reds will have one of the NL's best hitters on their hands.
  • Ben Zobrist, Rays: Zobrist will also be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season.  By measure of WAR, he was the best player in baseball last year.  The Rays may be inclined to lock him up if he retains 50% of that value. 
  • Pablo Sandoval, Giants: He won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, so it may make sense to wait.
  • Kendry Morales, Angels: Morales is finishing up a six-year free agent contract and will be arbitration-eligible after the season.  Like Zobrist, he had a monster '09 and his team will probably wait at least a few months to see more of the same.
  • Shin-Soo Choo, Indians:  MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince has reported that the Indians would like to sign Choo to a five-year deal with a club option but the Scott Boras client hasn't shown interest as he enters his last pre-arbitration year.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians: Castrovince also mentioned Cabrera as a candidate for an extension.  He too will be arbitration-eligible after the season.
  • Nelson Cruz, Rangers: Cruz is an interesting case.  Though he turns 30 in July, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the season.  Given his age, will the Rangers choose the year-to-year route?
  • Billy Butler, Royals: Butler told us in November that he's yet to have extension talks with the Royals.  Butler, 24 soon, will reach arbitration after the season.  Will his power continue to increase in 2010?
  • Hunter Pence, Astros:  He's been a solid performer for the Astros, but does his .288/.339/.487 career line warrant an extension?  2010 is Pence's first arbitration year, and the Astros will pay him $3.5MM.
  • Yunel Escobar, Braves: Though the Braves once pledged not to work with the Wasserman Media Group after the Rafael Furcal drama, I'm guessing that situation won't stop them from discussing an extension with Escobar's agent.  The 27-year-old shortstop reaches arbitration after the season.
  • Adam Jones, Orioles: Jones fell just short of Super Two arbitration-eligibility for 2010.  The Orioles will look for continued growth.
  • Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks:  Drew will be paid $3.4MM in 2010, his first arbitration year.  The D'Backs will have to deal with Boras if they want to sign Drew. 
  • Kurt Suzuki, Athletics: CSNBayArea's Mychael Urban reported in March that extension talks for Suzuki are already underway.  The A's catcher will be arbitration-eligible after the season.
  • Carlos Quentin, White Sox: Quentin passed on an offer from the Sox around the time they offered four years and $14MM to John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  Quentin signed for $3.2MM for his first arbitration year, and is looking to replicate the health and success of '08.

Discussion: Brad Hawpe

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At the beginning of baseball's offseason, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said that while he was willing to listen to trade offers for Brad Hawpe, the team had no desire to move its right fielder. With the Rockies looking like a strong playoff contender, there's a good chance they'll maintain that stance throughout the 2010 season. On a Colorado roster with a loaded outfield, however, Hawpe will be an interesting case going forward.

An underrated source of offensive production, the 30-year-old has been extremely consistent for the Rockies, compiling a .288/.384/.518 slash line and averaging 25 homers over his last four seasons. His play in the outfield is another story. Hawpe's -25.9 UZR/150 last season was a league-worst mark among qualifying fielders, but was actually an improvement over his -46.6 UZR/150 in 2008. Given his poor defense and his struggles against left-handers (.243/.337/.438 in 2009), Hawpe will likely cede some playing time to lefty killers Dexter Fowler and Ryan Spilborghs.

Hawpe will earn a reasonable $7.5MM salary this year. His club option for 2011, which he could void in the event of a trade, is a little pricier, at $10MM (with a $500K buyout). The Rockies could decide at year's end to decline Hawpe's option, turning instead to their younger, cheaper talent. The team has no shortage of outfield options, including Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, Fowler, and Spilborghs.

If you were O'Dowd, how would you handle Hawpe in 2010? Is he a trade candidate this season? Is his offense strong enough to make up for his defense? Are his services worth the $9.5MM it would cost the Rockies to retain him for 2011?

Looking At The Needs Of Some Contenders

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With Spring Training wrapping up around the country, teams are finalizing their rosters and picking the 25 players they'll start the season with. There's always room for improvement, but some contenders have some very obvious weak spots on their rosters. Here's a look at some of them, which may need to be addressed during the season…

  • Angels, third base: Brandon Wood and Maicer Izturis will get the first cracks at replacing Chone Figgins, but if neither is up to par, the Halos might be looking for a fill-in at the hot corner.
  • Braves, outfielder: Superstar in training Jason Heyward will start the year in right, but incumbent centerfielder Nate McLouth had a brutal spring (6-for-51), which may push Melky Cabrera into full-time duty.
  • Rays, setup man: With J.P. Howell on the shelf due to a bum shoulder, the team has no obvious candidate to hand the ball off to new closer Rafael Soriano. Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour represent solid options, but if Howell misses more time than expected, the Rays might be looking to add a reliever.
  • Twins, closer: This is the most obvious hole of them all. Joe Nathan is out for the season after having elbow surgery, and Jon Rauch will get the first chance to replace him. 
  • Yankees, left field: The team is breaking camp with Brett Gardner, Randy Winn, and Marcus Thames set to share time in left, but we've already seen a scenario laid out in which they might need help sooner rather than later.

That doesn't include all of the clubs that could very well be looking to add a starting pitcher at some point, like the Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Some other holes aren't so obvious though. Maybe the Red Sox could use another reliever (who couldn't?), or perhaps Seattle will go looking for a big bat that fits into their extreme run prevention plan. 

What other areas of need to do you see out there for contenders?

Discussion: Lance Berkman

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The Houston Astros will be faced with a decision regarding Lance Berkman's future at some point this year. The club holds a $15MM 2011 option for Berkman, and will have to figure out whether they want to retain their switch-hitting slugger or pay him a $2MM buyout.

Berkman and teammate Roy Oswalt have represented the faces of the franchise since the days of Bagwell and Biggio, and the Astros have long resisted entering rebuilding mode. After their payroll exceeded $100MM in 2009, the club spent another $30MM on Major League free agent contracts this winter. Declining Berkman's option could indicate a commitment to the rebuilding process, and may be the prudent financial move as well. Last season, the 34-year-old battled injuries and posted career lows in batting average and slugging percentage, hitting .274/.399/.509.

Berkman, for his part, has talked about seeing "what else is out there" if Houston declines his option. If he were to become a free agent next offseason, Berkman would be an interesting case. 2011's first base class is significantly less enticing than 2012's, which could potentially include Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard. Next winter, Berkman's competition in free agency would likely be players such as Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Adam LaRoche. Considering the knee problems Berkman has already experienced this spring, it's plausible that he could follow the career trajectory of someone like Vladimir Guerrero, a still-dangerous hitter whose age and health questions have diminished his value.

A plethora of scenarios could play out before Opening Day 2011. Do you see the Astros declining Berkman's option, or perhaps even trying to trade him this season, should they fall out of contention? If Berkman enjoys a relatively healthy 2010 campaign, what sort of contract might he earn next winter, on the verge of turning 35?

Could Nationals Trade Cristian Guzman?

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After the Nationals named Ian Desmond their starting shortstop at the beginning of this week, Cristian Guzman's role with Washington became a little less clear. Guzman will make more money ($8MM) in 2010 than any National not named Adam Dunn, and is without a starting job. If Desmond holds his own as an everyday starter, the club will be paying $8MM to a utility player.

It's not an ideal situation for the Nationals, but it would be a challenge to move Guzman. In addition to his price tag, the 32-year-old also possesses ten and five rights, meaning he would have to approve any trade the team worked out.

Guzman has said he won't request a trade, and GM Mike Rizzo has insisted that Washington is not attempting to deal him. However, the switch-hitter could provide some value to a contending team as a utility man. In 1359 plate appearances for the Nats since 2007, he has hit .305/.334/.423, and while Fangraphs rates his shortstop defense as consistently slightly below average during his time in Washington, his positional flexibility could come in handy. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post writes today that the Nationals are trying Guzman in right field in hopes of getting him a few more at-bats.

We've already seen questions this spring regarding the health of star infielders such as Jose Reyes and Brian Roberts, and the Rangers reportedly looked into acquiring Guzman during their search for infield help. It's not hard to imagine depth or injury concerns inspiring a team to make a move for Guzman this season, despite his hefty contract. Do you see it happening? Which club could you imagine pulling off a trade? And what might the cost be, in terms of both money and talent?

2010 AL Rookie Of The Year Predictions

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Not many people predicted A's reliever Andrew Bailey to win the 2009 AL ROY award.  Instead, the preseason favorites were Matt Wieters and David Price.  I'll take Brian Matusz this year, but here's a list of candidates to consider:

Brian Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, Michael Saunders, Aaron Crow, Reid Brignac, Tyler Flowers, Dan Hudson, Jake Arrieta, Jesus Montero, Michael Taylor, Lonnie Chisenhall, Chris Carter, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Josh Bell, Michael Brantley, Scott Sizemore, Alex Avila, Hector Rondon, Fernando Perez, Danny Valencia, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson

Who are we missing?  And what's your prediction for AL ROY?  We'll do the NL tomorrow.

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