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Tigers Claim Braden Bristo, Transfer Austin Meadows To 60-Day IL

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5:05pm: The Tigers have announced the claim of Bristo, who has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo. The corresponding move is transferring outfielder Austin Meadows to the 60-day injured list. Meadows was placed on the 10-day IL due to anxiety on April 7 and will now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that point, which would be early June.

1:35pm: The Tigers have claimed right-hander Braden Bristo off waivers from the Rays, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Bristo was designated for assignment on the weekend when the Rays acquired right-hander Javy Guerra from the Brewers. The Tigers have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move in order to open a spot for Bristo.

Bristo, 28, was drafted by the Yankees in 2016 and was on their farm through the end of 2022, working exclusively in relief apart from a couple of two-inning starts as an opener. He made it all the way up to Triple-A, posting big strikeout totals but also dealing out more than his fair share of walks. He tossed 103 1/3 Triple-A innings between 2021 and 2022, posting a 4.70 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate but also a 13.2% walk rate.

He reached free agency in the winter and signed a minor league deal with the Rays, who selected his contract just over two weeks ago. He made one appearance against the Red Sox, tossing three innings without allowing a run, but was optioned back to Triple-A Durham the next day. He has an ERA of 10.00 in a small sample of six appearances for the Bulls this year.

Bristo will now head over to the Tigers, who will see if they can help him better harness his strikeout stuff so that he limits the free passes. The righty still has a full slate of options and essentially no service time, meaning he can be a depth option for the foreseeable future as long as he continues to hang onto his spot on the 40-man.

Tigers Sign Sam Clay To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed left-hander Sam Clay to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He had signed a minors deal with the Diamondbacks in the offseason but was released, per the tracker.

Clay, 30 in June, has a bit of major league experience on his ledger to this point in his career. A Twins draftee, he never got the call to the big leagues with them, reaching free agency after 2020. The Nationals then signed him to a major league deal and put him into 58 games in 2021. He didn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, just 15.9% of batters faced, but he got ground balls at an excellent 60.1% rate. The lefty posted a 5.60 ERA that year but might have deserved better, given his .342 batting average on balls in play and 65.4% strand rate, which were both on the unfortunate side of average. His 4.61 FIP and 4.42 SIERA were each about a full run better than his ERA.

Clay spent most of 2022 in the minors and eventually went to the Phillies and Mets in July with a couple of waiver claims in a span of a week. The Mets would later outright him off the roster in August. Amid all of that bouncing around, he tossed just 5 1/3 innings in the majors with a 8.44 ERA. But in 43 Triple-A innings, he had a much more palatable 3.56 ERA, getting grounders on almost two thirds of balls in play and striking out 24.1% of opponents.

Clay returned to the open market this winter and signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks. He wasn’t terribly effective in four spring outings and was released but will now join the Tigers. Per the transactions tracker, he’s been assigned to the FCL Tigers and will presumably get back into game shape after a layoff of about a month, at which point he’ll likely head to Triple-A Toledo. The Tigers have three lefties in the big league bullpen in Tyler Holton, Tyler Alexander and Chasen Shreve but Alexander currently has a 5.28 ERA on the year and Shreve a 7.84. Clay will give them a non-roster option to potentially turn to in the not-too-distant future.

Latest On Tarik Skubal

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  • Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.

Tigers Select Andy Ibanez, Place Kerry Carpenter On IL

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The Tigers have made a series of roster moves this morning, placing outfielder Kerry Carpenter on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain and selecting the contract of infielder Andy Ibanez. To make room on the 40-man roster for Ibanez, right hander Matt Manning was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Ibanez was outrighted off the Tigers’ roster in January, but returns after hitting .297/.418/.609 with five home runs this year at Triple-A. The 30-year-old made his big league debut for the Rangers two years ago and has slashed a combined .258/.306/.384 with eight home runs across 400 plate appearances. The Tigers claimed him off waivers at the end of last season. The majority of his playing time has been spent at second and third, but he has filled in in the outfield as well as at first.

Carpenter’s hitting .217/.280/.464 with four home runs to begin the season, his second big league campaign. The 19th round pick from 2019 showed a bit more promise last year, but has struggled to start 2023. The 25-year-old broke out in Triple-A last year, slashing .331/.420/.644 with eight home runs in 138 plate appearances, and so while he’s yet to hit a great deal at the big leagues there is a bit of promise there.

14 Veterans With Upcoming Opportunity To Opt Out Of Minor League Deals

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. As that second opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA. We’ll also look at a few players who don’t meet those criteria but reportedly negotiated forthcoming opt-out dates into their own non-roster deals.

Anderson was an Article XX(B) player who passed on his first opt-out chance. The 35-year-old finished last season with nine outings (seven starts) for the Reds, allowing a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. He returned to the organization and has started five games for their top affiliate in Louisville. He carries a 4.30 ERA over 23 frames with a modest 19% strikeout rate while walking 13% of opposing hitters. It’s not a great first few weeks but the Reds don’t have much certainty behind their top three starters. Connor Overton is on the injured list, while Luis Cessa has been rocked for 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Devenski also forewent his Spring Training opt-out. The 32-year-old accepted a season-opening assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s made seven relief outings. In nine innings, he’s allowed four runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. It’s a decent if not overwhelming performance. Devenski was an elite multi-inning relief option for the Astros between 2016-17 but he’s battled injuries and performance fluctuations since then. He threw 14 2/3 MLB innings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies last year, allowing an 8.59 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate but only walking one of the 67 hitters he faced. The Angels have a number of relievers who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, perhaps reducing their flexibility to add another player of that ilk in Devenski.

Doolittle bypassed an opt-out chance in Spring Training after returning to Washington over the winter. He’s spent the year on the injured list as he continues to work back from last summer’s internal brace UCL surgery. The veteran threw a live batting practice session this week and could see game action in the not too distant future (via MLB.com injury tracker). It stands to reason he’ll stick with the Nats.

Duffy has spent the season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. He already passed on a Spring Training opt-out and seems likely to do so again.

Ortega built an April 29 opt-out date into the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers earlier this month. He’d spent the spring in camp with the Yankees but didn’t crack New York’s roster and retested the market. Since signing with Texas, he’s played 17 games for Triple-A Round Rock. He carries a middling .219/.324/.313 line with one homer through 74 plate appearances. He’s drawing plenty of walks but not hitting for power and striking out a little more often than he has in recent seasons.

The lefty-hitting outfielder is coming off a reasonable .241/.331/.358 showing for the Cubs in 2022. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but is probably best suited for a corner. Texas has gotten strong early-season work from minor league signee Travis Jankowski and has Adolis García and Leody Taveras penciled into starting roles. The Rangers haven’t gotten much production from any of their left field options aside from Jankowski, though, and it’s questionable how long the journeyman can keep up anything approaching his current .340/.415/.447 pace.

Gamel, 31 next month, has been a decent left-handed platoon outfielder in recent seasons. He typically hits around a league average level, including a .232/.324/.369 line over 115 games with the Pirates last year. After signing with the Rays, he’s off to a .217/.316/.406 start in 79 plate appearances at Triple-A Durham. He’s walking at a customarily strong 12.7% clip but has gone down on strikes in more than 30% of his trips. Left-handed hitting outfielders Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have had excellent starts for Tampa Bay, which could make it hard for Gamel to play his way into the MLB mix anytime soon.

Hamilton, 32, returned for a second stint with the White Sox over the winter. He’s appeared in 14 games with Triple-A Charlotte but hasn’t produced, stumbling to a .150/.292/.175 batting line. The speedster has been successful on all three of his stolen base attempts but likely needs to show a little more at the plate to earn the pinch-running/defensive specialist role he’s played for a number of teams over the past four-plus seasons. The White Sox recently selected Adam Haseley onto the MLB roster to serve as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Hoffman didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out for Article XX(B) free agents. He negotiated opt-out chances on both May 1 and July 1 into his April deal with the Phils. The righty has pitched seven times for their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, allowing eight runs across 7 2/3 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters but handed out five free passes. Hoffman had a reasonable 3.83 ERA through 44 2/3 frames for the Reds last season, missing bats at a league average rate but walking nearly 12% of his opponents. The Phils only have three out of eight relievers who can’t be optioned to the minors, giving them some room to add the veteran if they’re intrigued by Hoffman’s swing-and-miss capabilities.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has played in 12 games for Triple-A Nashville, hitting .273/.319/.409. He’s not hitting for much power in the early going and has never been one to take too many walks. Naquin spent a bit of time on the injured list this month but was reinstated earlier in the week.

Milwaukee lost center fielder Garrett Mitchell to a season-threatening shoulder procedure and has gotten middling offensive production from rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer. They’re soon to welcome Tyrone Taylor back from the injured list, though, and Naquin’s serviceable but unexceptional Triple-A production may not force the front office’s hand.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Rosenthal is headed for physical therapy, suggesting he won’t be ready for game action in the near future.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first opt-out chance in March and seems likely to do the same next week.

Sánchez’s May 1 opt-out was built into his contract, as he didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out under the CBA. The general expectation was that the veteran backstop would play his way onto the big league roster. That was particularly true once San Francisco lost Roberto Pérez to a season-ending shoulder injury. Sánchez hasn’t done anything to force the issue with Triple-A Sacramento, though.

He’s hitting a woeful .191/.350/.213 without a home run and a 25% strikeout rate over 13 games. Sánchez connected on 16 longballs in the majors for the Twins last year but only reached base at a .282 clip. There’s a path to playing time behind the dish at Oracle Park. Still, Sánchez’s early performance hasn’t been what the organization envisioned. Promoting him would lock in the prorated portion of a $4MM salary for this season, which could prove a disincentive for the club.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. He’s started five games with St. Paul this season, logging 22 1/3 innings. While his 2.42 ERA is excellent, it belies a middling 19.2% strikeout percentage and a huge 17.2% walk rate. Minnesota has quite a bit more rotation depth than they did last summer and would probably look to players already on the 40-man roster (i.e. Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland) before tabbing Sanchez if injuries necessitate.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

The Tigers’ Last Chance To Get Something From The Justin Verlander Trade

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There once was a time when Justin Verlander had only played for the Tigers. He was drafted by them with the second overall pick in 2004 and then cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in the years that followed. He twice signed contracts that extended the club’s control over his services, once in 2010 and another in 2013. That latter contract ran through his age-36 season and was signed while the club was one of the best in the league. They were fresh off a World Series appearance in 2012 and would eventually get to a four-year streak of winning the AL Central in 2014. It wouldn’t have been outlandish to expect him to be a Tiger for life.

However, the fortunes of the franchise changed in the years after that, as they slipped into the basement of the division in 2015. They bounced back with an 86-win showing in 2016 but still missed the playoffs, then were not doing so great again in 2017. It was decided that it was time to turn things over, with the Tigers making two huge deals at the waiver deadline that year. They first traded Justin Upton to the Angels and then Verlander to the Astros. The latter deal was Verlander, a player to be named later and cash for prospects Franklin Pérez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers. The PTBNL was later reported as outfielder Juan Ramirez.

It’s now been over five years since that franchise-altering pivot. The Astros went on to win their first World Series a few months after acquiring Verlander, though that title is now forever asterisked in the minds of many baseball fans due to the trashcan-banging scandal. But subsequent contracts kept Verlander in Houston through 2022 as the club continued to be among the best in the league. They made the ALCS in each of those seasons, making it to the World Series again in 2019 and 2021 before winning their second title last year.

As for the Tigers, they have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, continually rebuilding during that entire stretch. That 86-win showing in 2016 is still their last winning season. They’ve also reaped little from those future-focused moves back in 2017. Right-hander Grayson Long, who came over in the Upton deal, topped out at Double-A and retired in 2019. The PTBNL in the deal was later reported as Elvin Rodríguez, who made seven appearances with the Tigers last year but was outrighted at season’s end and is now with the Rays on a minor league deal.

As for the Verlander deal, Pérez was generally considered the headliner at the time as he was a highly-touted prospect then. Baseball America had him in the #54 slot of their top 100 at the start of 2017 and bumped him to #35 going into 2018. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit him badly, mostly in the shoulder. He was only able to throw 19 1/3 innings in the minors in 2018 and 7 2/3 in 2019. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then shoulder surgery wiped out 2021 for Pérez. He was released by the Tigers and re-signed, eventually tossing 25 1/3 innings in the Complex League last year but with a 9.59 ERA. He appears to still be in the organization but it’s hard to count on him for anything now after so much missed development time. He’s 25 years old and has yet to crack Double-A, outside of a brief stint at that level prior to the trade.

Cameron was also a highly-touted young outfielder, having cracked BA’s top 100 list in 2016. Though he had slipped off by the time of the trade, he was still an exciting young player. He made his way to the big leagues but couldn’t do much with the opportunity. He got into 73 major league games over the past three years but hit just .201/.266/.330 and struck out in 31.6% of his plate appearances. He was put on waivers in November, getting claimed by the Orioles and subsequently outrighted.

That leaves Rogers as the last hope for the Tigers to salvage the deal in some way. Arguably seen as the least significant piece of the deal at the time, Rogers was Houston’s #20 prospect at Baseball America coming into 2017. The catcher hasn’t been able to provide much value to the Tigers so far, but that’s not really his fault. He required Tommy John surgery in September of 2021, which wiped out his entire 2022 season. Prior to that, he was showing some positive signs in a small sample. He got into 38 games in 2021 and hit six home runs. Despite striking out in 36.2% of his plate appearances, his .239/.306/.496 was above average, resulting in a 116 wRC+.

He’s now back from that long layoff and showing encouraging signs in a small sample again. His 28.3% strikeout rate this year is still high but it’s an improvement from his previous work. He’s also nearly doubled his walked rate from 8.7% in 2021 to 15.2% this year. His .237/.370/.447 batting line on the season amounts to a 135 wRC+.

This is a tiny sample of 46 plate appearances in 15 games and will surely change. However, Rogers doesn’t need to hit like a superstar to be valuable since he’s considered a strong defensive backstop. In his limited time in the big leagues, he has four Defensive Runs Saved. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him negative grades for his framing prior to the Tommy John but he’s in the positive range so far this year. He’s thrown out 16 of 39 attempted base stealers in his career, a 41% rate that’s well above average, though he’s nabbed just one of six this year.

Rogers’ career thus far is so limited that it’s hard to draw any meaningful conclusions. Thanks to the lost season, he has just 88 major league games under his belt despite now being 28 years old. But given his reputation as a strong defensive catcher, even something near league average offense would make him a useful contributor. He’s shown the potential to be more than that, hitting 12 home runs already in barely half a season of cumulative work. He’s yet to reach arbitration but is slated to get there this winter and is on pace to reach free agency after 2026.

It’s highly likely that the Verlander trade will eventually be seen as a big miss for the Tigers overall. Fans had to watch an iconic player win two rings elsewhere while the highly-touted young players they got in return couldn’t meet expectations and the team posted miserable results overall. But if Rogers can keep serving as a solid defender behind the plate who launches a ball over the wall every once in a while, he can keep it from going down as an utter disaster.

Tarik Skubal To Throw Bullpen Session This Week

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The Tigers have been without left-hander Tarik Skubal since he underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his forearm last August. Detroit hasn’t provided a specific recovery timeline for the 26-year-old hurler, though he’s out until at least late May after starting the year on the 60-day injured list. Skubal is soon to hit a notable marker in his rehab process, as he’s in line to throw his first post-surgery bullpen session this week (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press).

Tigers Place Trey Wingenter On 15-Day IL

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The Tigers placed right-hander Trey Wingenter on the 15-day injured list due to tendinitis in his throwing shoulder.  Wingenter’s placement is retroactive to April 19.  Righty Will Vest was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

The IL stint adds to an overall tough start to the season for Wingenter, who has an 8.31 ERA over six appearances and 4 1/3 innings of work.  While it’s hard to extrapolate from such a small sample size, it does seem like Wingenter has been unlucky to post such a large ERA —- his SIERA is a much more respectable 3.83, while his BABIP is a hefty .385.

Some rust was probably to be expected given that Wingenter has pitched only three innings of rookie ball since the start of the 2020 season.  Due to Tommy John surgery and then a variety of elbow and back problems, Wingenter’s three innings of rehab assignment work marked his only action over three full seasons.  Given his checkered injury history, the hope is that Wingenter’s latest IL visit will prove to be a short one, and it could be that the tendinitis is simply a side effect from getting back to pitching on a regular basis.

Prior to that extended layoff, Wingenter showed some promise as a high-velocity, high-strikeout relief arm over 70 innings with the Padres in 2018-19.  He signed a minor league deal with Detroit over the offseason and looked very good in Spring Training, earning himself a role on the Tigers’ Opening Day roster.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Matt Manning Aiming To Return To Mound In Six Weeks

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Tigers righty Matt Manning suffered a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot last week when he was struck by a comeback liner, and the team placed him on the 15-day injured list the next day. Manning told reporters Sunday that after his x-rays were examined by multiple specialists, the agreed-upon treatment would be let the fracture heal with rest (Twitter thread via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). The alternative would’ve been to have a screw inserted to help stabilize the fracture, but both options came with recovery timelines of six weeks anyhow. He could begin a throwing program as soon as next week and is hopeful he can meet that six-week timeline.

Manning’s foot fracture is the latest in a growing line of setbacks for both Manning himself and the Tigers’ rotation at large. Manning’s career to date has been slowed by both shoulder and forearm troubles, which combined to limit him to just 85 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues a year ago. He, along with fellow right-hander Casey Mize and lefty Tarik Skubal, was generally viewed as a the foundation of what the Tigers hoped to be their rotation of the future. Mize, however, had both Tommy John surgery and back surgery last summer. Skubal went on the injured list just prior to the trade deadline with what was originally billed as a minor forearm strain, only to undergo flexor surgery a few weeks later.

With that trio now shelved, the Tigers are looking to the quintet of Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Joey Wentz in the rotation for the time being. Rodriguez is playing out the second season of a five-year deal that has thus far not panned out. Both Lorenzen and Boyd signed one-year deals in free agency. Turnbull is looking to bounce back from his own Tommy John surgery (performed in 2021), while Wentz, a former Braves top prospect who came over in the Shane Greene trade, is merely hoping to establish himself at the big league level.

Of the Tigers’ once-touted trio of youngsters, Manning could still be the first to rejoin the team. He’ll certainly beat Mize back to the field, barring any kind of major setback, as Mize’s Tommy John procedure and back procedure both came last June. Skubal, at last check earlier this month, was doing some low-intensity throwing nearly every day but hadn’t yet built up to mound work. He’s on the 60-day injured list, so the earliest he’d be able to return is late May.

Manning, a former No. 9 overall pick in the draft, climbed as high as No. 17 on Baseball America’s annual Top 100 prospect list (pre-2020) but has yet to solidify himself as a big league regular. After a brutal debut in 2021, when he was tagged for a 5.80 ERA in 85 1/3 innings, he improved to a 3.43 ERA in 63 frames last year — albeit with a middling 18.3% strikeout rate. His velocity during spring training was a point of concern, though the 93.2 mph he averaged on his heater in two regular-season starts is generally in line with the 93.5 mph he averaged last season.

Manning only turned 25 years old two months ago, so there’s plenty of time for him to get healthy and step up as a vital member of the Detroit rotation, both in 2023 and for the foreseeable future. Given the health troubles elsewhere among the team’s formerly ballyhooed  collection of pitchers, it’s all the more pivotal to the team’s outlook that he does so.

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