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Rockies, Greg Bird Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rockies have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent first baseman Greg Bird, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’ll be in Major League camp this spring.

Bird, 28, had a promising rookie debut with the Yankees back in 2015 when he hit .261/.343/.529 with 11 homers in 178 trips to the plate. Injuries have torpedoed his career since that showing, however, as he’s undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder and to remove bone spurs in his ankle. It’s hard to believe that five seasons have elapsed since Bird first broke into the Majors, but that is indeed the case, and he’s batted just .194/.287/.388 in 522 plate appearances since that time.

Bird spent much of the 2020 season with the Rangers organization, but he didn’t play in a big league game with Texas. Bird does carry a career .296/.370/.528 batting line in parts of three Triple-A seasons, and first base has been a problematic position for the Rockies in recent years. Colorado doesn’t have a set option at first base currently. Veteran Ian Desmond seems the likeliest candidate, but he’s also played outfield and bounced around the infield, so he could play elsewhere should Bird, Ryan McMahon or Josh Fuentes seize an opportunity at first base.

Arenado Notes: Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Heyward

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As Rosenthal notes, the Cubs could end up looking back on those talks as “a what-might-have-been” given that they’ll now be facing Arenado on a regular basis in the NL Central.  From Colorado’s perspective, such a trade might not have been a clear win if a Rockies-bound Bryant had suffered a similar run of injuries that hampered him in the actual 2020 season, but it still might have drawn better reviews than their trade package from St. Louis.  “Rival executives remain baffled by the deal,” Rosenthal writes, as the Rox rather inexplicably worked themselves into an unsalvageable situation with their best player.

The Braves had some talks with the Rockies about Nolan Arenado before the star third baseman was dealt to the Cardinals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  Rosenthal also sheds some light on one of last offseason’s more intriguing rumors, the talks between the Rockies and Cubs about a trade involving both Arenado and Kris Bryant.  Jason Heyward was also part of the negotiations at one point as the Cubs looked for payroll offset for Arenado’s contract, though the Rockies weren’t interested in adding any money beyond the 2021 season (which marks the end of Bryant’s current contract and when Arenado could have exercised his opt-out clause).

As Rosenthal notes, the Cubs could end up looking back on those talks as “a what-might-have-been” given that they’ll now be facing Arenado on a regular basis in the NL Central.  From Colorado’s perspective, such a trade might not have been a clear win if a Rockies-bound Bryant had suffered a similar run of injuries that hampered him in the actual 2020 season, but it still might have drawn better reviews than their trade package from St. Louis.  “Rival executives remain baffled by the deal,” Rosenthal writes, as the Rox rather inexplicably worked themselves into an unsalvageable situation with their best player.

GM Jeff Bridich: Trevor Story Expected To Begin Season With Rockies

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With Nolan Arenado now officially on his way to the Cardinals, questions have inevitably turned to the future of another star Rockies infielder in Trevor Story.  The shortstop is entering the final year of his contract, but the team expects that Story will begin 2021 in a Colorado uniform, as GM Jeff Bridich told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) and other reporters today.

Bridich stopped short of saying that Story wouldn’t be traded whatsoever, as “it’s very difficult to predict what the coming months will look like.”  Beyond just Story, however, Bridich more firmly stated that the Arenado trade wasn’t the first of many for his team.  “This certainly is not a total tear-down and rebuild….If that was the case, certain players already would have been traded,” the general manager said.

That comment could be a more pointed reference to Story, considering how Story can be a free agent next winter.  The shortstop has been cited as a logical trade candidate for months, though while reports in December suggested the Rox were at least considering the possibility, there hasn’t been much in the way of concrete news about specific teams pursuing Story.  That said, it’s probably safe to assume that every team in need of a shortstop this offseason at least placed a call to Bridich to check in on Story’s availability.

While that list of possible suitors has narrowed as several notable shortstops have come off the board in free agency and in the trade market, there would certainly still be plenty of interest in Story if the Rockies changed course and shopped him now, or even in midseason as a pure trade deadline rental.  A case could certainly be made that Colorado is better off moving him now in order to maximize Story’s trade return, since waiting until closer to the trade deadline creates added risk of an injury, or Story struggling, or teams being less willing to give up multiple prospects since they’d only have Story for a portion of a season rather than all of 2021.

However, the Rockies seem intent on not throwing in the towel on the coming season.  At today’s press conference, owner Dick Monfort told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other media that “I truly believe this is a very talented team that underperformed the last two years.”  Monfort has been notably over-optimistic about his team in the past (most notably his prediction almost exactly one year ago that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games), and even if the Rockies were better than their 2019-20 records indicate, that certainly isn’t a promise of future success.  Colorado has done little this offseason besides trade Arenado, while the Dodgers and Padres now seem prepared to dominate the NL West for years to come.

Cardinals Acquire Nolan Arenado

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After a few days of waiting for their complicated trade to be finalized, the Cardinals and Rockies have completed their deal centering on third baseman Nolan Arenado, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The league and the union have signed off on the swap. The Rockies will receive left-hander Austin Gomber, third baseman Mateo Gil, infielder Elehuris Montero and right-handers Tony Locey and Jake Sommers in exchange for Arenado, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported Gomber’s spot in the deal, while Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic tweeted that Gil would be in it.

Nolan Arenado | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The two teams agreed to this trade in principle last Friday, but it was held up over the weekend as they worked out finances and which players would be involved. St. Louis is now getting one of the game’s premier infielders, and the team will reportedly add another year and $15MM to Arenado’s contract. As such, he’ll be signed through 2027 at $214MM. The Rockies will absorb $51MM, including some in deferrals, according to Feinsand. The Rockies will pay all of Arenado’s $35MM salary in 2021, Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays.

Along with the added value to his deal, Arenado will be able to opt out of his pact after either of the next two seasons (the Cardinals added the second opt-out as part of the trade; most of the money the Rox owe will be after the opt-outs, Feinsand adds).

Considering the concessions the Cardinals are making, it’s no surprise Arenado waived his no-trade clause to become part of the club. Of course, it helps that the Cardinals look much better equipped to compete for a playoff spot than the Rockies, who saw their relationship with Arenado deteriorate over the past year-plus. The Rockies, whom Arenado played for from 2013-20, earned playoff berths in 2017 and ’18, but they’ve since fallen apart. Arenado, dissatisfied with the team’s inactivity in free agency, was part of trade rumors last offseason and even accused general manager Jeff Bridich of treating him with disrespect.

The Bridich-led Rockies are now wiping most of Arenado’s contract off the books, but they’re also losing a face-of-the-franchise type who won eight straight Gold Gloves and picked up five All-Star nods in their uniform. The 29-year-old Arenado annually blended well-above-average offense with superb defense as a Rockie, though his production at the plate did fall off during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Across 201 plate appearances, Arenado batted a career-worst .253/.303/.434 – down from a lifetime .293/.343/.541. Arenado did walk (15) nearly as much as he struck out (20), and a .241 batting average on balls in play hurt his cause, yet his Statcast numbers also plummeted.

The Cardinals no doubt regard Arenado’s 2020 decline as a small sample blip. He’ll now take over at the hot corner for the club in place of Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman, the Cardinals’ main third base choices last year. Both Carpenter and Edman also have second base experience, so they could divvy up the keystone next season if Kolten Wong exits in free agency. However, it’s possible the Cardinals would rather find a way to jettison Carpenter, a former standout whose output was weak from 2019-20. That may not be doable, though, considering the 35-year-old’s sudden drop-off, the $20.5MM he’s due through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout for ’22) and his no-trade protection.

In order to bolster their situation at third, the Cardinals are parting with a few of their top 30 farmhands, though it doesn’t appear the Rockies are getting any blue-chip talent back. Baseball America ranked Montero 14th, Locey 26th and Gil 28th in the Cardinals’ system prior to the trade.

Montero, who topped out as BA’s 81st-ranked prospect in the sport in 2019, made his pro debut in 2015 and reached the Double-A level in 2019. While he struggled there, the 22-year-old has typically produced above-average numbers in the minors, BA wrote last season that Montero is “a physical, strong hitter with excellent hand-eye coordination, bat speed and plus raw power.” Defensively, Montero’s future could be at first base.

Locey, a third-round pick in 2019, divided his draft year between the rookie and Single-A levels. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Locey 16th in the Cardinals’ system a year ago and wrote that he could be a reliever, as his velocity mixes well with short stints.

Gil, son of former major leaguer Benji Gil, has mostly played rookie ball going back to his first taste of pro action in 2018. Longenhagen wrote in 2020 that the 20-year-old has “low-end regular upside.”

Sommers, 23, is the only prospect the Rox are getting back who was not in BA’s top 30 for the Cardinals at the time of the deal. He’s a 10th-round pick from 2019 who threw 51 2/3 innings of 4.18 ERA ball and struck out more than a batter per inning at the rookie level during his draft year.

The 27-year-old Gomber is the lone player with big league experience on his way to Colorado in this trade. Gomber, a fourth-rounder in 2014, reached the majors for the first time in 2018 and has since been effective over 104 innings for the Cardinals. He sports a lifetime 3.72 ERA, though he was even better than that last year with 29 frames of 1.86 ERA ball (mostly in relief). While Gomber did end the season with below-average figures in strikeout percentage (22.7), walk percentage (12.6) and SIERA (4.82), he should earn a role as part of Colorado’s pitching staff in 2021. He’s not on track to become eligible for arbitration until after 2022 and isn’t scheduled for free agency until the conclusion of the 2025 season.

All said, when considering Arenado’s superstar status and his massive contract, this is one of the most notable trades in recent baseball history. It’s also indicative of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals, who went to the playoffs for the second straight year in 2020, are clearly going for it in a wide-open National League Central. On the other side, the Rockies seem to realize they have little chance to compete in the near term as part of an NL West led by serious contenders in the reigning World Series champion Dodgers and the up-and-coming Padres.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Potential Nolan Arenado Trade

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8:24pm: Third baseman Mateo Gil will also be part of the Rockies’ return, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic tweet.

8:15pm: Left-hander Austin Gomber is one of the players who will go to Colorado, Goold tweets. Nightengale reported Friday that Gomber was likely going to be in the trade.

6:51pm: Colorado and St. Louis seem to be on the verge of a major trade centering on star Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, but it’s not yet clear whether the deal will go through as early as Monday night. The swap still hasn’t been submitted for approval to the union and the league office, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who adds that “it will take at least another day, if not longer” to become official. On the other hand, though, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that all parties could sign off on it sometime tonight.

Regardless of whether this trade takes place Monday, it does appear it’s going to happen. According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the Rockies and Cardinals had “intense moments” during negotiations this past weekend, but the blockbuster is still likely to go through by Tuesday. Furthermore, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the Cardinals are optimistic the transaction will occur.

Because of the complicated financial hoops the teams have to jump through to complete this trade (Colorado is set to absorb $50MM of Arenado’s remaining money, some of which will be in deferrals), it remains unclear whom the Rockies will receive in return for the longtime face of their franchise. But Arenado – who has a no-trade clause – seems eager to head to St. Louis, as he has given his written consent for a trade to the Cardinals, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports. Arenado is in line to receive an extra year and another $15MM tacked on to the six seasons and $199MM on his Colorado contract if the Cards do acquire him.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

The Other Rockies’ Superstar Who Made St. Louis Home

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If the Cardinals are able to complete their acquisition of star third baseman Nolan Arenado – under the terms as we know them now – they’ll add the best defensive third baseman of his generation. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post pegs the Arenado deal as the biggest trade in Rockies’ franchise history. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong certainly sounds pleased, saying on MLB Network Radio today (via Twitter), “…having a guy like Arenado in our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us.”

Arenado’s trophy case is full: five All-Star nominations, four Silver Slugger awards, and a Gold Glove for every season in the Majors (eight). A career .293/.349/.541 hitter, Arenado has created 39.1 bWAR/32.3 fWAR with a solid 7.9 percent career walk rate and solid 15.0 percent career strikeout rate. Though 2020 was a down year offensively, he became one of the toughest hitters in the game to strikeout, doing so in only 10.0 percent of his plate appearances.

All that said, he would head to Busch Stadium III with the usual caveats of a player leaving Coors Field. Namely: can he hit outside of Coors?

Paul Goldschmidt can walk Arenado through the transition from face-of-the-franchise in the west to being just “one of the guys” crashing at Yadi Molina’s house. But to preview the shock-to-the-system Arenado may face taking his hacks so much closer to sea level, we can go a little further back to another Rockies’ superstar who went east for the latter half of his career: Matt Holliday.

Holliday averaged 154 wRC+ per season during his first five years at Coors Field, his age-24 to age-28 seasons (2004 to 2008). Over that same time span he posted 105 wRC+ on the road. For his part, Arenado is a career 128 wRC+ hitter at home and 108 wRC+ hitter away from Coors.

Visual learners can check this Fangraphs chart for his home/road splits by age, then do the same for Holliday. Holliday’s splits look nearly the same through age-30 before converging at the point in his career that Arenado faces now: 30 years-old and permanently changing his address from Denver to St. Louis.

As you can see in that chart, Holliday’s overall wOBA follows a fairly traditional aging curve. Playing at Coors Field, however, can warp the shape of that production. As this March article from the Athletic’s Nick Groke covers in detail, the Coors Field dilemma isn’t just about how fast the balls fly through Colorado’s thin air, but how much sharper the breaks appear to hitters on the road. As much as Coors helps a hitter’s numbers (more than a normal home split), playing away from Coors hurts (more than a normal road split).

To think in terms of wRC+, it might just be that the Arenado who arrives in St. Louis will no longer be a 128 wRC+ hitter at home and a 108 wRC+ hitter on the road – but he could still be a 118 wRC+ hitter overall.

Or at least, that was Holliday’s path. Over his seven years in St. Louis, his home/road splits stabilized. He would average 133 wRC+ on the road and 142 wRC+ per season at home. On the whole, he arguably became a better hitter with 133 wRC+ during his five seasons in Colorado compared to 139 wRC+ in his seven full seasons in St. Louis. Does that mean Arenado will do the same? Of course not. Just because Holliday stayed largely healthy and productive past his prime years doesn’t mean that Arenado will do the same.

Holliday and Arenado tracked mirroring paths to the Show-Me State. Holliday’s age-29 season was anomalous for his career in terms of the playing conditions – just like Arenado. Whereas Arenado had to deal with a 60-game season in a pandemic-wracked world, Holliday faced the equally jarring reality of moving from Coors Field to Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. I kid, but Holliday’s half-season in Oakland stands out as a singularly odd year on Holliday’s resume in terms of the conditions relative to the rest of his career. If Arenado stays in St. Louis the length of his contract, he’ll be in Cardinal red for seven seasons from age 30 to 36 – the exact length of stay Holliday enjoyed in the Gateway to the West.

On the other hand, they aren’t the exact same type of hitter. While both are right-handed sluggers, Holliday had a little more in common with Goldschmidt than Arenado. Holiday was a worm killer even in his era. As a Rockie, Holliday logged a 1.38 groundball-to-flyball rate, whereas Arenado’s 0.87 GB/FB rate reflects the fact that he hits the ball in the air more than Holliday ever did. Compared to the rest of the league, Holliday hit the ball on the ground more than the average player throughout his career. Arenado can’t even see him from so far down the other end of that spectrum.

Holliday sprayed the ball to all fields a little more than Arenado, who leans pull side with 41.8 percent pull percentage to 23.1 percent opposite field for his career. Theoretically, that could hurt Arenado, as Busch tends to be a good singles and triples park for righties while suppressing offense in most other regards, per Park Factors at Swish Analytics. At least he’ll have a shorter porch in left to target, for what that’s worth.

Will Arenado adapt to his new confines? Ask Holliday, who not only tread this path before but was teammates with Arenado in 2018. He offers nothing but praise, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Besides, Arenado’s glove should continue to be an exceptional asset. While age may diminish his abilities at the hot corner somewhat, he has a lot of wiggle room before even entering the stratosphere of any other third baseman outside, maybe, Matt Chapman. With DeJong on his left, he shouldn’t even face much of an adjustment there. DeJong may be one of the few defensive shortstops who can rival Trevor Story’s competence on that end.

Arenado is heading from an organization that has never won its division to one of the game’s premier, trademark franchises. He’s leaving the NL West, where the Dodgers and Padres are readying for what could be an epic divisional bloodbath – and he’s joining the NL Central, where contenders are being broken down and sold for parts. It might be a jarring move for Arenado, but he can always look back and take comfort in the fact that this trail has been blazed before – and it worked out quite well. Remember, it was only their second full season together that Holliday and the Cardinals won the World Series.

Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Rockies Re-Sign Chris Owings To Minors Deal

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  • The Rockies have re-signed utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league deal, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 29-year-old slashed .268/.318/.439 with two home runs over 44 trips to the plate as a Rockie in 2020. In all, Owings – a former Diamondback, Red Sox and Royal – has hit .241/.285/.367 with 36 homers and 76 steals in 2,346 plate appearances as a major leaguer.
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