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Pirates Claim Robert Stephenson, Designate Kevin Padlo

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TODAY: The Pirates have officially added Stephenson to their active roster, with JT Brubaker headed to the paternity list in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 27: The Pirates have claimed right-hander Robert Stephenson off waivers from the Rockies.  Infielder Kevin Padlo was designated for assignment in the corresponding 40-man roster move, and the Pirates will make another move on their active roster when Stephenson joins the team.

Stephenson was DFA’ed by Colorado earlier this week, and didn’t last long on the waiver wire before the Pirates snatched him up.  It isn’t surprising to see the Bucs take a chance on a live arm who has some of the highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball, and Stephenson was also a former top prospect for the division-rival Reds during his minor league career.

That early promise led to some good results as a reliever in 2019 and 2021, but this season has been a struggle for the right-hander.  Stephenson has a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 innings, due to a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact allowed.  As fast (97mph) as Stephenson’s average four-seamer may be, batters have hit .379 against the pitch.

If Pittsburgh’s coaching staff can get Stephenson back to his 2021 form, he’ll be a nice bullpen addition for the Pirates both for the remainder of this season and in 2023, as Stephenson still has a third and final season of arbitration eligibility remaining.  The righty is out of minor league options, so the Pirates would have a DFA decision to make of their own if they wanted to move Stephenson to the minors and off their 40-man roster.

Padlo is no stranger to the DFA carousel, as he has now been designated for assignment for the fifth time in a little over a year.  The Mariners claimed Padlo off waivers from the Rays in August 2021, starting a cycle that has been Padlo go from Seattle to the Giants, back to the Mariners, and then to Pittsburgh earlier this month when the Bucs claimed Padlo away from the M’s.

All of the movement has resulted in only 34 Major League plate appearances for Padlo this season (split over the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants), but he has performed well over 278 Triple-A PA.  The infielder has hit .270/.345/.484 with 12 homers and 13 doubles at the highest minor league level, continuing what has been a solid set of career Triple-A numbers.

Between that production and Padlo’s versatility as a third baseman who can be moved around the infield and into left field, it isn’t hard to see why teams keep having interest in Padlo, even if that interest has yet to manifest itself into a regular MLB job.  As such, it seems quite possible that another club might claim Padlo away from the Pirates.

Rockies Designate Robert Stephenson, Reinstate Chad Kuhl From 15-Day IL

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The Rockies have reinstated right-hander Chad Kuhl from the 15-day injured list.  To create roster space, the team also announced that righty Robert Stephenson has been designated for assignment.

Stephenson is in his second season in Colorado, after being acquired from the Reds back in November 2020.  After being a top prospect during his time in the Cincinnati farm system, Stephenson never caught on as a starting pitcher but showed promise as a reliever in 2019.  He built on that production in 2021, when he posted a 3.13 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate over 46 innings out of Colorado’s bullpen.

The 2022 season has been a different story, as Stephenson has struggled to a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 frames.  While his 97mph average fastball velocity still puts him among the game’s hardest throwers, opposing batters have been crushing Stephenson’s four-seamer to the tune of a .379 batting average.  With only average secondary pitches and a lot of hard contact being allowed, Stephenson’s production has fallen off, especially in the last few weeks.  The righty has allowed at least one earned run in seven of his last nine appearances, with an ugly 10.24 ERA over his last 9 2/3 innings.

Since Stephenson is out of minor league options, the Rockies had no choice but designate him for assignment in order to move him down to Triple-A.  Since Colorado already had an open 40-man roster spot to accommodate Kuhl’s return, the club didn’t strictly have to DFA Stephenson, so it is possible the Rox might be parting ways with him altogether.  A waiver claim from a rival team is a distinct possibility, as Stephenson’s velocity and fastball spin rate could interest other clubs.

For Kuhl, he hasn’t pitched since August 3 due to a hip strain.  The right-hander pitched well over the first three months of the season, but had a 10.17 ERA in the 25 2/3 innings and six starts prior to his IL placement.

Rockies Place Antonio Senzatela On IL With Torn ACL

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The Rockies announced that right-hander Antonio Senzatela has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a left ACL tear. Fellow righty Jhoulys Chacin has been reinstated from the injured list to take his place on the roster.

Senzatela left yesterday’s game after injuring himself while attempting to field a ground ball, falling to the ground in obvious discomfort. It was reported earlier that he would be going for an MRI to get more information, which has apparently revealed the bad news of the torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post spoke to fellow Colorado hurler German Marquez about the situation, with Marquez saying he spoke to Senzatela, who will undergo surgery at some point.

Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets that the club expects Senzatela to miss 6-8 months, meaning this will certainly finish his season and will quite likely have a significant impact on next season as well. Next year’s Spring Training is already about six months away at this point. It will go down as a disappointing season for the righty, the first of his five-year, $50.5MM contract extension he signed with the Rockies. He registered a 5.07 ERA over 19 starts with a below-average 13.1% strikeout rate. He limited walks to a 5.6% rate and got ground balls on 49.4% of balls in play, but many of them found holes. His .383 batting average on balls in play this year was well above his .318 career rate.

In the short-term, the Rockies will eventually need to fill Senzatela’s spot in the rotation next to Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena and Ryan Feltner. Chad Kuhl could help eventually, though he landed on the IL two weeks ago with a hip flexor strain. Austin Gomber got bumped to the bullpen after disappointing results but could come back to make some starts.

In the long-term, the Rockies will have to think about next year’s rotation, which was likely going to need some work even before this development. Kuhl and Urena are scheduled to reach free agency at season’s end, leaving the club with Marquez, Freeland, Feltner and perhaps Gomber as holdovers for next year. However, Freeland’s 4.82 ERA this year is the lowest of that bunch.

Antonio Senzatela To Undergo MRI Following Knee Sprain

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Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela is headed for an MRI today after sustaining what looked to have been a potentially serious knee injury in yesterday’s loss to the Cardinals. Chasing down a Brendan Donovan grounder to the right side of the infield, Senzatela pivoted from trying to field the ball to cover first base and came up hobbling before collapsing in foul territory behind the first base bag (video link). He had to be helped off the field. Manager Bud Black told reporters yesterday that Senzatela has a left knee sprain (Twitter link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).

The 27-year-old Senzatela is in the first season of what was a surprising five-year, $50.5MM contract extension that bought out his final two arbitration years and three would-be free agent seasons. It’s been a rough season for the right-hander, who currently has a 5.07 ERA through his first 92 1/3 innings since inking that deal. Fielding-independent metrics are a bit more forgiving (4.06 FIP, 4.48 SIERA), as Senzatela has undeniably been dinged by a .383 average on balls in play. That’s particularly problematic for Senzatela, who allows more balls in play than just about any starting pitcher in the game; his 13.1% strikeout rate this season is the lowest among all MLB pitchers with at least 90 innings.

If Senzatela is indeed headed to the injured list, he’ll join fellow starter Chad Kuhl (strained hip flexor) on the shelf. The Rockies have a thin group of replacement options for that pair, particularly in light of the immense struggles of lefty Austin Gomber (5.86 ERA in 106 innings). Gomber, who started 23 games and posted a 4.53 ERA with the Rox a year ago, was moved to the bullpen earlier this summer and came on in relief of Senzatela yesterday — only to surrender five runs in 2 1/3 innings.

German Marquez and Kyle Freeland have been mainstays in the Colorado rotation and are both under long-term contract — Freeland, like Senzatela, after signing an extension this offseason. Both have struggled in 2022, however, pitching to an ERA near 5.00 this year. Journeyman Jose Urena has a 4.80 ERA in a dozen appearances (eight starts), and rookie right-hander Ryan Feltner has been tattooed for a 6.39 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts). Colorado’s innings leaders in Triple-A — Zach Neal, Brandon Gold and Riley Smith — all have ERAs north of 6.00.

Given that context, it’s perhaps likeliest that Gomber will simply step back into the starting mix should Senzatela require an absence. The rash of poor performance and struggles/injuries among the team’s depth options and top-ranked pitching prospects alike, however, underscore the Rockies’ need for pitching help this offseason. The Rockies have steadfastly refused to enter into a rebuild phase under owner Dick Monfort, so it’ll be incumbent on general manager Bill Schmidt to bolster a rotation and bullpen that both rank 29th in the Majors in ERA (5.26 and 4.85, respectively).

Rockies Outright Jordan Sheffield

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  • Right-hander Jordan Sheffield went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Albuquerque, the Rockies announced. Selected by the Rox out of the Dodgers organization in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, the hard-throwing Sheffield has thrown 31 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball in the big leagues across the past two seasons, though there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of that number. Sheffield has fanned just 16.9% of his Major League opponents — against an unsightly 12.1% walk rate. While he doesn’t have an especially loud contact profile, Sheffield has benefited from a .226 average on balls in play he’s unlikely to sustain. He’s also struggled immensely in 18 2/3 career Triple-A frames: 10.61 ERA, 23 hits (eight home runs), 18 walks and just 15 strikeouts. Sheffield will remain in the Rockies organization but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

Injury Notes: Colomé, Nance, Mets

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The Rockies announced that right-hander Alex Colomé has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right lateral epicondylitis. Fellow righty Justin Lawrence was recalled to take over Colomé’s spot on the active roster. (Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette was among those to relay the moves before the official announcement.)

Lateral epicondylitis is better known as “tennis elbow,” which is perhaps notable for the hurler. The club hasn’t provided any information about how long they expect Colomé to be out of action, though an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow will always lead to at least some level of concern.

The 33-year-old was signed to a one-year, $4.1MM contract in the offseason and has thrown 41 1/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball, getting ground balls at a 55.6% clip. That’s well above the 43.3% league average for relievers and especially important when playing at Coors Field. As an impending free agent on a non-competitive team, Colomé’s name came up in trade rumors, though he ended up staying put after the Rockies had another quiet deadline.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Marlins announced some roster moves between games of today’s doubleheader, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald being among those to pass them along. Right-hander Tommy Nance has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Jeff Brigham being optioned in a corresponding move. Nance made his MLB debut with the Cubs last year and then came to Miami on a waiver claim in March. He hasn’t found much success in the majors so far, pitching to a 6.54 ERA in his first 53 2/3 MLB innings. However, he’s fared much better in the minors, as evidenced by his 3.86 ERA in Triple-A over his career.
  • Last night, the Mets dealt with injuries to two infielders, as Eduardo Escobar left with side tightness and Jeff McNeil departed after a collision with Rhys Hoskins resulted in a cut on his hand. With their infield depth depleted, the club had to resort to emergency measures, plugging outfielder Mark Canha in at third base. Canha has some very limited third base work in his career, coming back in his time with Oakland. He logged two innings at the hot corner in 2015 and 13 more in 2016. “It was a little nerve-racking,” Canha told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I just really didn’t want to make a mistake and make [Max Scherzer] angry.” The situation seems to have just been a temporary stopgap, as McNeil is back in the lineup today, playing second base with Luis Guillorme at third. Gosuke Katoh was at the ballpark today just in case, though neither McNeil nor Escobar were placed on the injured list.

Rockies Designate Jordan Sheffield For Assignment

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The Rockies announced they’ve designated reliever Jordan Sheffield for assignment. The move frees a spot on the 40-man roster for outfielder Wynton Bernard, whose previously-reported contract selection has been made official. Colorado placed center fielder Yonathan Daza (separated left shoulder) and catcher Elias Díaz (left wrist sprain) on the 10-day injured list, recalling Dom Nuñez to take Díaz’s spot behind the dish.

Sheffield, a former supplemental first-round pick of the Dodgers, landed in Colorado over the 2020-21 offseason via the Rule 5 draft. He spent all of last season in the majors, as required for a team to retain a Rule 5 pick’s rights. Sheffield worked as a low-leverage arm for skipper Bud Black, pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 29 1/3 innings. His strikeout and walk rates (17.2% and 11.2%, respectively) didn’t align with that quality run prevention. Nevertheless, Sheffield averaged 96.4 MPH with top-of-the-scale raw spin on his four-seam fastball, making him an interesting long-term relief option for the Rox.

Things have fallen apart during the Vanderbilt product’s second year in the organization. He’s made only two big league appearances, with his fastball velocity sitting at a diminished 93.7 MPH. He’s been blasted over 21 appearances with Triple-A Albuquerque, posting an 11.21 ERA with just a 16.3% strikeout rate and a huge 19.6% walk percentage. He’s also surrendered eight home runs in only 17 2/3 innings.

The Rockies will place Sheffield on waivers over the next few days. He’s never previously been outrighted, meaning the organization could keep him around without requiring a 40-man roster spot if he goes unclaimed. That seems likely, given the extent of his struggles in Triple-A this season.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Rockies To Select Wynton Bernard

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The Rockies are planning to select the contract of outfielder Wynton Bernard before tomorrow’s series opener with the Diamondbacks, reports Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette. Colorado will need to create corresponding vacancies on both the active and 40-man rosters.

It’s the culmination of a decade-long journey in the minor leagues for Bernard. Originally a 35th-round pick of the Padres out of Niagara University back in 2012, the right-handed hitting outfielder didn’t reach Double-A in the San Diego system. He was released before the 2014 campaign but latched on with the Tigers on a minor league deal. He’d spend the next three years in the Detroit organization, topping out at Triple-A, before qualifying for minor league free agency after 2016.

Bernard then bounced around as a depth player. He spent a year in the Giants’ system, then a season and a half at the upper levels of the Cubs’ organization. After a stint in independent ball, Bernard made his way to the Rockies heading into 2021. He played all of last season in Triple-A Albuquerque and returned there again in 2022.

The San Diego native has had a breakout showing this season. He’s tallied 376 plate appearances over 87 games, connecting on 17 home runs. Bernard owns a .325/.374/.588 line, striking out in only 14.6% of his plate appearances. He’s also stolen 26 bases in only 28 attempts and has played nearly all of his defensive innings in center field. Albuquerque’s extreme hitter-friendly nature no doubt helped Bernard to some extent, but there’s also little denying he’s earned the promotion with an excellent year. Bernard’s .962 OPS places fourth among 45 qualified Pacific Coast League hitters, to say nothing of the added value he’s brought on the basepaths and on defense.

Bernard has spent around seven years within somewhat close proximity to the majors, but he’d never reached the highest level. His persistence, coupled with this year’s strong season, earns him the long-awaited call a month away from his 32nd birthday.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

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