Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Collective Bargaining Agreement

MLB Collective Bargaining and Risk Sharing

By | at

Dr. Matt Swartz is a Labor Economist who has researched and published on MLB labor markets for over a decade at websites including The Hardball Times, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, as well as at MLB Trade Rumors. Matt created the arbitration salary projection model for MLB Trade Rumors, and co-created the SIERA pitching statistic available at FanGraphs. He has consulted for a Major League team since 2013, in addition to working in his day job as an economist in the cable industry. This article reflects his own opinion and not that of any of his employers or clients.

In essence, every proposal floated by the owners has requested that players assume the downside risk associated with lower ticket revenue. Part of the reason I suspect this is offensive to players is that owners have benefited substantially in recent years from upside risk associated with television revenue, and little to none has found its way into player salaries.

To understand why, all we need is a superficial understanding of labor economics. Baseball’s free agent market follows those models better than perhaps either side realizes. Owners offer free agents certain salaries because they believe that their labor will generate as much money in revenue. Yet owners primarily get their revenue from two sources: tickets and television.

Since what free agents are actually selling is wins, the translation from ticket revenue to free agent salaries is obvious. Teams sell more tickets when they win more games. Especially if those wins push them further in the playoffs, they sell substantially more season tickets in subsequent seasons. Teams readily pay free agents with this in mind.

Yet the translation from television revenue to free agents is virtually nonexistent. National television deals with ESPN, TBS, and FOX are distributed to all teams, regardless of how many games they win. Regional Sports Networks often sign multi-decade contracts with teams to broadcast their games, which also are unaltered by win totals in a given season.

The reason this matters, and the reason this is a source of acrimony between the owners and players now, is that television revenue has grown far more quickly than ticket revenue. Player salaries have grown in magnitude about as much as ticket revenues have— suggesting this theory is likely true. Owners have seen higher profits from faster growing television revenue.

Consider my rough estimates in the graph below. Here I have used Baseball Prospectus payroll totals, approximate average ticket prices from various sources, average attendance from Baseball Reference, and Maury Brown’s (now unavailable) BizOfBaseball.com website and Forbes articles for total revenue. None of these figures are exact but they are certainly close enough that the message and pattern is obvious. Players have seen salary growth (red) almost exactly in accordance with the growth rate of ticket revenues (green), while owners’ profits have grown more quickly as they pocket the faster-growing television revenue (blue). This is not the owners pulling the wool over the union’s eyes—it is just the structure of their agreements in which the payroll share of revenue is not fixed as it is in other sports, but tied to owner incentives that have not kept up with total revenue.

If the owners want the players to accept the downside risk associated with low ticket revenue, they need to find a way to share the upside risk associated with higher television revenue.

A starting point is simple. Instead of minimum salaries defined exactly by the CBA, let free agent and arbitration prices be set in excess of the salary minimums, and set future salary minimums distributed to all players. Let those minimums represent some fixed X% of the cumulative national television deals. Bargain about that percentage, but when TBS offers 40% more in their next deal than their current deal, players will see that upside. In exchange, when future identifiable events lower ticket revenue— e.g. say government regulations of Y% reduced capacity in stadiums due to COVID-19 in 2021– the players will accept lower salaries by Z%. This gives players exposure to upside and gives owners protection from downside. Everything else is bargaining around X, Y, and Z%.

Now is the time for the players to request this. Now is the time for the owners to offer this. It need not even be for 2020– that ship may have sailed already. By right now, there is downside risk associated with empty seats associated with 2021. If owners want players to assume lower salaries in such a situation, they should make an offer to give the players a piece of future television revenue growth now. Otherwise, the players will again be asking the owners the same question next year: “Why should we accept this downside risk?”

Resolving This Player-Owner Dispute Should Be Easy

By | at

Dr. Matt Swartz is a Labor Economist who has researched and published on MLB labor markets for over a decade at websites including The Hardball Times, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, as well as at MLB Trade Rumors. Matt created the arbitration salary projection model for MLB Trade Rumors, and co-created the SIERA pitching statistic available at FanGraphs. He has consulted for a Major League team since 2013, in addition to working in his day job as an economist in the cable industry. This article reflects his own opinion and not that of any of his employers or clients.

The MLB Owners and MLB Players Association have been unable to reach an agreement for the financial terms of the 2020 season, and at this point they may not reach one at all. Both sides have focused publicly on the morality of their case, each believing they have the ethical upper hand. Neither has made proposals that reflect their actual negotiating position. That the arguments have primarily focused on morality is perhaps not surprising, but it doesn’t create fertile ground for an actual substantive negotiation. I studied bargaining theory, and I don’t remember anything about how to win a moral argument. The ethics are what they are, and any reasonable person could make either side’s case if they really tried. The union seems to be winning the PR war thus far, as fans seem to mostly blame owners, but supportive tweets from fans are not convertible into currency.

At its core, what we have is the following set up: The presumptive default position, if no agreement is reached, is that commissioner Rob Manfred will order a roughly 50-game season with full prorated salaries. If the sides do reach an agreement, they may play as many as 80 games, and be able to split the associated revenue. They also may be able to add revenue through other avenues like expanded playoffs, and they could split that revenue too. Those are the gains from a negotiated agreement. They can be split in a way to make both parties better off.

Both sides have accused the other of not bargaining in good faith, but neither side has offered the other side anything they would plausibly accept. Instead we have seen the owners repeatedly try to offer players only slightly more than the same salary total as they would with a 50-game season, effectively asking for all the gains that would accrue from a negotiated agreement while leaving the players to absorb greater output and greater risk (both from the usual risk of playing baseball and the additional risk attendant to the global pandemic). The players similarly have failed to offer the owners anything that would lead to more profit than they would accrue in the event of a 50-game season with unexpanded playoffs. It is not surprising negotiations have gone nowhere.

At this point, an agreement for a better, longer season in 2020 is doubtful. But 2021 is right around the corner, and there is no vaccine for COVID-19 yet. We may not see fans in the seats in 2021, or at least we may not see stadiums filled to capacity. So we may see a replay of this argument in 2021 as well. It’s imperative that both sides recognize their position and negotiate accordingly. This acknowledgement could easily flip the script and lead to an expedited deal for 2020 already.

Let’s start with what should be obvious and unarguable.

Unarguable Point A:

Any agreement should see the players earn substantially more than they would have in a 50-game season.

Unarguable Point B:

Any agreement should see owners make more profit than they would in a 50-game season.

Nothing floated publicly has even come close to meeting these simple criteria.

The starting point here is actually fairly simple. Forget about inching towards a middle ground when neither side is willing to budge. Instead, begin by figuring out just how much extra revenue is associated with 30 extra games and an expanded postseason. Then, split it in half. The players’ salary total is equal to that half plus their prorated salaries for 50 games. Both sides may try to argue for a bigger piece of the pie, but either side would be crazy to say no to half of this revenue—which is much more than the zero extra revenue they would see otherwise. The players don’t need the owners to open their books on any more than is necessary to estimate this amount. The owners don’t need to ask the players to sign any waivers or anything else that isn’t already negotiated. Anything on top of this baseline can be negotiated after setting the above in writing and shaking hands (but not actually).

Offers could get more complicated and cover more territory. This is especially true with the risk of no fans or fewer fans in 2021, and with the CBA expiring after 2021. But the essential 2020 issue can be resolved in a fairly simple manner that makes each side better off in the short term while limiting the long-term damage to the sport. In subsequent pieces, I’ll discuss the fundamentals of baseball’s free agent market and how players might want to approach the inequities that have arguably developed over the last couple years. But for now, let’s just agree that owners, players, and fans can all be made much better off very quickly. Get it done before dinnertime.

Heated MLB Letter To MLBPA Highlights Ongoing Acrimony

By | at

MLB didn’t just provide the MLBPA a new economic proposal today. It also filed some fighting words in the letter delivering its latest offer for a coronavirus-shortened campaign, as Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic report (subscription link).

Deputy MLB commissioner Dan Halem suggested the union has not acted in good faith in negotiations, hinting at the league’s possible stance if and when this matter ends up before an arbitrator. By Halem’s framing, labor is taking an obstructionist stance as the league provides what it labels a “final counterproposal” for a 72-game season.

That the sides are now exchanging angry letters, even as the clock ticks on squeezing in games, is to an extent merely confirmation of that underlying state of affairs. But there’s also a nod to a serious escalation lurking just beneath the surface. Halem hints less than subtly at a possible effort by the league to disrupt the sides’ late March agreement, claiming the union has “purposely failed to fulfill its obligations” and “deprived the Clubs the benefit of their bargain” in the contract.

No doubt the league already anticipated the likely outcome when it sent this shot across the bow. The union is expected to decline, and do so before the league’s appointed Sunday deadline, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

While the overall MLB salary offer has morphed in kind and crept up in value, the league’s bargaining posture remains the same as ever. The same holds true on the players’ side, where full pro rata pay has long been seen as a sine qua non.

The league begins from the premise that it can force a greatly truncated season with the players receiving pro rata pay for a third or less of a normal slate of games. Anything more? That’s gravy for the players, so they should be glad to get a marginal return for additional games played, particularly since the league is willing to dangle some added payment for an expanded postseason slate (should that prove possible). Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt laid this out rather forthrightly in his eyebrow-raising recent interview.

The players come from quite the opposite direction. By their view, the sides’ late-March agreement provided for pro rata pay for any games played. While that deal also contemplated the sides “discuss[ing] in good economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators,” the players don’t believe that disrupts the salary clause.

Given those radically different viewpoints, it’s not hard to see why this dispute seems to be so intractable. Indeed, Halem now asserts in the letter that the players have no initial right to pay in the first place. While many are playing under guaranteed contracts, Halem notes that the league could have suspended them upon the declaration of a national emergency. Of course, Manfred didn’t take that course. The late March agreement reportedly requires the commissioner to exercise good-faith efforts to stage as many games as possible, as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper notes on Twitter. And a players’ association source tells Rosenthal and Drellich that the league’s own attorneys acknowledged in letter correspondence that “players are not required to accept less than their full prorated salary.”

As we’ve pointed out here previously, it’s completely absurd that the sides remain entrenched in a disagreement over an agreement they signed in late March — one that was intended to deal with the COVID-19 shutdown. Perhaps that’s the best way to understand the acrimony and distrust: the sides evidently never really saw eye to eye even as they signed that agreement.

Latest On MLB-MLBPA Negotiations On 2020 Season

By | at

Major League Baseball and the players’ union met yesterday to engage on a possible restart to the pandemic-paused 2020 season. While the talk in the run-up to the sit-down surrounded economic disputes, the sides seem to have started the conversation in less contentious realms.

Yesterday’s chatter involved matters that might seem mundane, but which matter quite a bit to the hot stove. Roster and transaction rules were on the table, as was with the plan for a second Spring Training, per ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers.

Also under discussion was the complicated matter of health and safety, though it sounds as if there’s much more to come on that score. The league is preparing a lengthy presentation on all sorts of measures and protocols for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

It sounds as if the approach is to lay some groundwork before moving on to the owners’ desire to further pare back payroll. Yesterday’s meeting did not include any discussion of player earnings, per Rogers.

Players have already agreed to a game-for-game reduction in salaries. With something like a half-season on the table, they stand to sacrifice about half of their anticipated annual earnings even without taking further cuts. But MLB is reportedly angling to limit salaries to 50% of certain league revenues — it’s not clear what would be included — in order to boost team balance sheets.

If that’s the final and most difficult question to be answered, it’s not the most important. Finding a path to play that’s responsible to participants as well as the general public remains the primary challenge. The league has obviously done a lot of groundwork; Rosenthal adds that several agents have arranged briefings for players from disease experts.

MLB To Hold 5-Round Draft

By | at

MLB has decided upon a five-round draft this summer, according to Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com (links to Twitter). The union had previously agreed to the possibility of a draft as short as five rounds, though more recently had pushed for a lengthier process.

Commissioner Rob Manfred laid down the decision when MLB and the MLBPA could not come to an agreement on the particulars. Interestingly, Passan notes, a ten-round draft was also preferred by baseball operations departments. The version on offer from the league would’ve effectively separated the draft into two five-round sections with greater spending limitations on the latter half, along with a cap on undrafted signings.

Ultimately, it seems, owners were more concerned with avoiding the cost of additional bonuses than they were intrigued by the potential to acquire more high-end talent in the later stages of the draft. Draft-eligible players that are not selected in the five rounds will be eligible to sign for a maximize bonus of $20K.

Teams may struggle to woo players they don’t select. Typically, later-round choices can be paid quite a bit more than $20K. With collegiate play a viable alternative, many will elect to await a (hopefully) more lucrative professional starting point.

Then again, perhaps teams will find some success competing with geography, promises of advancement and opportunity, and other creative inducements. Manfred will no doubt need to be proactive in policing this arena. There’s huge potential upside to be had, which creates some potentially worrying incentives.

Finding value in the draft has long been a chief aim of baseball ops departments. Now they’ll have never-before-seen chances to sign an unlimited number of players for bargain prices. That’ll involve recruitment, of course, but there’s a rare possibility for major imbalance in the talent haul.

Even putting aside worries of rule-breaking behavior, there’ll be potential for havoc. Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes (Twitter link) the possibility of pressure on “late”-round picks to take what they can get or face a $20K cap. There’s also a sense that innumerable soft factors could sway large numbers of players in varying directions, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com notes on Twitter. There’ll certainly be downstream effects for players that choose to enter or remain in the collegiate and JuCo ranks.

Union, League Spar Over Interpretation Of Agreement On Resumption Of Play

By | at

It had seemed that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association were largely seeing eye to eye on alterations to their preexisting agreements to account for the coronavirus pandemic. The sides struck a bargain in late March to account for numerous significant matters of concern, including part-season salaries.

[RELATED: MLB Player Contracts In A Shortened Or Canceled Season]

The unity may not be long-lived. With little prospect for hosting games with fans in attendance in the near term, league and union are now embroiled in a battle over the meaning of the deal they worked out less than one month ago.

Recent reporting indicated that MLB does not believe the recent agreement resolves the matter of player salaries in the event of TV-only games. Today, union chief Tony Clark announced that he holds precisely the opposite position, as Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.

The league claims the question of salary in a no-attendance season simply hasn’t been decided, pointing to a clause providing that the sides agree to “discuss in good faith the economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators or at appropriate substitute neutral sites.” By this reading, the entire original agreement related only to the resumption of a typical season.

The player side says the agreement provides for a pro rata reduction of salary to match the number of games played, regardless of whether fans are in the stands. Clark tells Blum: “Players recently reached an agreement with Major League Baseball that outlines economic terms for resumption of play, which included significant salary adjustments and a number of other compromises. That negotiation is over.”

It’s not surprising that the sides would’ve found it hard to line up on this particular point. Playing without paying fans was obviously foreseeable, since it made it into the deal. Surely this didn’t sneak up on anyone.

But it’s frankly bizarre to see such a misalignment of expectations regarding an agreement that was only just negotiated. The actual dispute boils down to the question whether new negotiations over “economic feasibility” would involve a full reconsideration of player salaries or, rather, that such feasibility would take place regarding only other matters, with the salary issue already decided. It seems there are oddities in the positions of both sides, based upon what has been aired publicly.

In the framing of deputy commissioner Dan Halem, the original agreement was one in which the sides “agreed that the season would not commence until normal operations — including fans in our home stadiums — were possible.” If not, there’d be a need to negotiate a whole new “framework to resume play without fans.”

It may well be possible — even preferable — to read the agreement as the league suggests. But in that case, why not make it all the more explicit? We haven’t yet seen the full agreement in its finished form, but the elements that have been reported suggest it’s less than crystal clear in its structure. It also seems strange that the sides would’ve focused so much energy solely on the function of a “normal” season when that seemed so unlikely to occur.

At the same time, on the union side, it’s hard to imagine the potential ambiguity wasn’t spotted. If the MLBPA really believed the agreement ensured full salaries (on a game-by-game basis) regardless whether fans were in attendance, why would it have allowed such an “economic feasibility” proviso to inject doubt?

Could it be that both sides agreed to disagree? Perhaps, but if that was actually the mutual understanding, then why overlay contractual uncertainty onto the preexisting, underlying state of affairs? If instead one side or the other has been caught by surprise by the other’s interpretation, that’s equally hard to understand.

Perhaps we’re still just seeing posturing. But there’s no question the league and union still have significant issues to sort through in advance of a potential resumption of play, especially if (as seems exceedingly likely) it’ll occur without spectators.

This was always going to be complicated. Holding contests without fans will require tricky logistics, added costs and risks, and atypical economic calculations. And there’s already an important background consideration here. Remember that talk of the uniform player contract, which provides the commissioner power to “suspend” contracts “during any national emergency during which Major League Baseball is not played”? That’s clear enough in some instances. But it’s less obvious precisely how the contracts would be re-started. And what happens if the emergency declaration is formally lifted, but baseball doesn’t resume play … or does so on a modified basis? It’s hard to read this clause as providing that major economic interferences would mandate adjustments of already guaranteed salaries, particularly if there’s no formal nationwide emergency declaration.

There was already ample potential for interpretive disputes revolving around that language, the entirety of the Basic Agreement, and the broader bargaining relationship in these unusual circumstances. A mutually satisfactory resolution never seemed straightforward. And now, the presence of an intervening, already-disputed agreement may only add to the potential for friction.

Quick Hits: Shapiro, Blue Jays, Ryu, Draft, Payrolls

By | at

It was on this day in 1916 that one of the biggest trades in early baseball history was finalized, as the Indians acquired superstar center fielder Tris Speaker from the Red Sox for right-hander “Sad” Sam Jones, minor leaguer Fred Thomas, and $55K in cash considerations.  A salary dispute prompted the move, as the Sox wanted Speaker to take a pay cut following something of a down year (.322/.416/411 over 653 PA) by his huge standards in 1915.  While the two teams agreed to the swap a few days prior to April 12, it wasn’t officially completed until Speaker received a reported $10K bonus to agree to play for Cleveland, a bonus Speaker demanded be personally paid by Red Sox owner Joseph Lannin.

While the Sox were criticized for the trade, they weren’t exactly hurt in the short term, as Boston went on to win the World Series in both 1916 and 1918 — Jones posting a 2.25 ERA in the latter season to play a big role in the championship run.  Speaker, meanwhile, had plenty of great baseball left in him, as he hit .354/.444/.520 over 6634 plate appearances with the Tribe from 1916-26, and also served as Cleveland’s manager for the last eight of those seasons.  Speaker’s time with the Indians was highlighted by a World Series victory in 1920, the first title in franchise history.

Some notes from around the modern baseball world…

  • Though the Blue Jays loaded up on arms this offseason, team president/CEO Mark Shapiro still feels “pitching, pitching and more pitching” is his club’s biggest need.  In a Q&A conversation with The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (subscription required), Shapiro noted that Toronto’s splashy $80MM signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu was partially based on that need, since “we have more position players than pitchers that are major-league ready to impact and we needed more balance.”  Another factor, however, was the internal confidence amongst the Jays’ current core roster “that they are closer to winning than people think.”  This is one of many topics addressed during the interview, as Shapiro also discussed issues as rule changes, how baseball could adapt to a shortened season, and how he is coping with trying to run an organization with everyone staying at home.
  • Also of note was Shapiro’s mention that “more of a traditional center fielder” was the Blue Jays’ second-biggest need, though “we have lots of outfielders and we would like to give them an opportunity before adding to that mix.”  Randal Grichuk is slated for the bulk of center field duty, though Teoscar Hernandez, Derek Fisher, Anthony Alford, and perhaps even Cavan Biggio could all get some time up the middle.  While Grichuk is mostly thought of as a right fielder, he has actually amassed almost as many innings in center (1988 1/3) as he has in right (2196 2/3) over his MLB career, though defensive metrics are somewhat split on which is his better position.  UZR/150 and Statcast’s Outs Above Average favor Grichuk’s work in right field, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric prefers his glovework in center field.
  • With this year’s amateur draft slated for only between 5-10 rounds, many top high school prospects could opt to attend college or junior college, while some college seniors could take their renewed year of NCAA eligibility and instead enter the 2021 draft.  Other youngsters, however, will opt to begin their pro careers, which MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo notes will likely lead to a huge free agent market of available amateur talent.  Teams can’t spend more than $20K to sign any undrafted amateur, so a host of other factors could impact whether or not a player chooses one particular team over others offering the same dollar figure, as executives, agents, and players tell Cotillo.  These factors range from the relationship between a team’s scout and the player, a player choosing a team close to his hometown and family, or perhaps even a club strategically drafting one prospect in order to draft another.  As one scouting director put it, “If we draft a kid in the fourth round, do we have a better shot at signing his buddy?“
  • “Team officials and player agents are bracing for what they expect to be a dramatic shift in the financial landscape if the sport is shut down for the season,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), which could mean particular concern for teams with major long-term salary commitments on their books.  Clubs like the Angels, Padres, and Rockies are in this camp, while teams with less money committed beyond the next season or two — such as the Giants, Rangers, Mariners, or Dodgers — are in a bit better position.  Of course, the coming Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations are “the industry X factor” in all financial forecasts.

Tony Clark Skeptical Of Organizational Spending Plans

By | at

After a 2018 offseason that saw countless veterans linger on the free agent vine much longer than anticipated, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark is expecting yet another cooled stove this winter–and, judging from comments made to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal on Thursday, he doesn’t sound particularly pleased about it.

“The Hot Stove season has traditionally been about ticket sales and fan engagement,” Clark told Rosenthal. “Yet several clubs are laying the groundwork for more of the same [this offseason], even as franchise values skyrocket and central revenues continue to increase. These blanket proclamations send precisely the wrong message to fans, and undermine the competitive landscape that fuels interest in the game from day one of spring training through the final game of the World Series.”

For context, it’s important to note that Clark is largely responding to recent comments made by several C-level club executives and owners around the game: Red Sox brass has indicated a desire to get under the CBT threshold in advance of 2020; the Rockies, fresh off of a fourth-place season, indicated a lack of “flexibility” in regard to finances for 2020; and, just this week, our own Steve Adams delved into the possible maneuvers the Astros could undertake in avoidance of the luxury tax line, after owner Jim Crane poured cold water on the idea of a Houston-Geritt Cole reunion. For teams at every position in the standings, “spending” has become a center-stage PR concern in 2019.

Clark also took pains to note that MLB saw a decline in gate attendance for the fourth consecutive season, with, specifically, a 1.6 year-over-year drop from 2018 to 2019. That such a decline would occur while another term–“tanking”–is also becoming common parlance would seem to add some teeth to Clark’s comments. In 2019, 20 teams finished with 90-or-more losses or 90-or-more wins, while a whopping eight teams finished with 100-or-more losses or 100-or-more wins.

Rosenthal’s column also features comments from MLB deputy commissioner Dan Halem, who takes–as one might expect–a more tempered view of game-wide spending patterns, noting that the Minnesota Twins saw a huge jump in 2019 attendance despite a quiet 18-19 offseason in terms of spending (the club’s two “major” expenditures being a collective three years of commitment to Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz). Certainly, this instance of public back-and-forth represents an interesting bit of repartee occurring between both league and players union in advance of the current collective bargaining agreement’s expiration in December of 2021.

Latest On Push For International Draft

By | at

Major League Baseball is pressing a plan to implement an international draft in the near future, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports. With ownership behind the initiative, says Badler, it’s possible that the league could attempt to institute such a system as soon as the 2020 international signing season.

That general attempt has long been anticipated. What’s most notable about the report, which arises in the wake of a league-run session with teams’ international staff members, are some of the potential particulars. The changes, if implemented, would represent a significant further tightening of an already closely controlled labor-intake system.

According to Badler, the initial structure under consideration features “hard slot value[s]” that would leave no room for negotiation for incoming players. In other words, in addition to losing their ability to select which organization would best nurture and care for a 16-year-old while providing the best long-term opportunity, players and their families would be stripped of the chance to negotiate a larger bonus than the system dictates.

The proposal also includes a simple rotation system for assigning top draft choices to teams. That’d make for quite a different approach from the domestic amateur draft, in which the order is tethered directly to MLB team performance. A rotating approach would largely preserve the status quo, in which spending pools aren’t connected to MLB-level outcomes; it’s unclear whether there would continue to be any connection to competitive balance (recipients currently get more pool money) or free-agent outcomes (there’s a pool hit for non-revenue sharing teams that sign a player who declined a qualifying offer).

MLB has already succeeded in shaving something like a quarter of its international expenditures by imposing hard caps on amateur spending. Though many players signing under the regime are teenagers, the rules also extend to cover those who haven’t yet turned 25 and who possess less than six seasons playing in a foreign professional league. (That’s why the immensely talented Shohei Ohtani signed for peanuts.)

It’s impossible not to connect the question of the international draft to the still-building labor battle between MLB and the MLB Players Association. First and foremost, the international intake system is subject to bargaining — just as it was when the union acceded to the hard-cap system. More broadly, there’s an obvious connection between amateur signing bonuses and early-MLB extensions — the recent run of which has had a huge (albeit still not fully known) impact on the ability of MLB players as a whole to command future free-agent earnings.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the MLBPA responds to this initiative. Chief Tony Clark hinted recently at a new stance on the amateur side, though it’s still not clear whether the union will be able to enunciate an encompassing vision to compete with the league’s — or, at least, use this topic to pry other, worthwhile concessions. Mid-CBA negotiations are now in process; the international question will no doubt feature significantly.

Badler notes that members of the international intake apparatus — trainers on the player side and scouts on the team side — are increasingly “split” in their views on the draft after a history of general opposition. That won’t dictate the players’ position by any stretch, but it’s a notable shift from a set of important stakeholders.

There are numerous considerations to be accounted for here beyond bonuses. The international signing system has long featured nefarious, sometimes dangerous, situations involving young and often vulnerable players. While there are indications that some of the most concerning elements have improved in recent years, it’s still plenty concerning that teams are lining up advance deals with extremely youthful players who are not yet eligible to sign. There’s still ample potential for harm. And while teams have increasingly seen the value in investing in education and health initiatives for their amateur players, there’s no common standard and no firm support system for those that aren’t chosen to continue advancing as professional ballplayers. It may be hoped that, if the league is successfully able to tighten control through a draft, it also focuses serious energy and resources to creating a truly just overall program for players that are eligible for selection.

Manfred On Ball, DH, Free Agency, Expansion, Rays

By | at

If you ask Astros ace Justin Verlander, Major League Baseball has become a home-run happy farce. Verlander, who started the All-Star Game for the American League on Tuesday, issued acerbic comments on the direction of the game Monday, saying (via Jeff Passan of ESPN): “Major League Baseball’s turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you’ve got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the [expletive] company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it’s not a guess as to what happened.”

Sour grapes from someone who’s already close to allowing a career-high home run total for a season? It doesn’t seem that way. There is growing skepticism – not just from Verlander – about the integrity of the baseball MLB is using, and understandably so. Big leaguers are on pace to hit 6,600-plus home runs, which would crush the record of 6,105 set in 2017, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times notes. Like Verlander, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark is under the impression something is up. So are starters Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman and CC Sabathia, as Kepner and Passan detail in their pieces.

“If there’s something that’s potentially altering that, just come out and say it,” Odorizzi said. “I think, as players, we’ve gotten to the point now where we’ve accepted it.”

However, according to commissioner Rob Manfred, there isn’t anything nefarious happening. Rather, the league “has done nothing, given no direction, for an alteration in the baseball.” Manfred added MLB doesn’t want more home runs – owners have “no desire” for an increase, he insisted Tuesday – so juicing the baseball wouldn’t make sense from MLB’s perspective.

At the same time, Manfred did admit Monday the ball has changed. He told ESPN’s Golic and Wingo (via Passan): “”Our scientists that have been now studying the baseball more regularly have told us that this year the baseball has a little less drag. It doesn’t need to change very much in order to produce meaningful change in terms of the way the game is played on the field. We are trying to understand exactly why that happened and build out a manufacturing process that gives us a little more control over what’s going on. But you have to remember that our baseball is a handmade product and there’s gonna be variation year to year.”

Whether Manfred’s telling the truth in regards to the baseball is up for debate. What’s clear is that the game won’t be injecting more offense by implementing a universal designated hitter in the imminent future. Manfred remarked Tuesday (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that a DH in the National League is not “inevitable,” indicating it won’t come up as a possibility until after the collective bargaining agreement runs out in 2021.

Free agency, like the DH, will be an important discussion point during talks on the next CBA. Clark conveyed a desire this week to restore “meaningful free agency.” Manfred seems happy with the current system, though, saying baseball has the “freest free agency in any sport” – one devoid of a salary cap, franchise tags and max contracts. He expressed satisfaction that MLB “has produced more $100 million guaranteed contracts than the rest of professional sports combined.” While Manfred did indicate a willingness to negotiate with the union as regards free agency, the league’s “economic system has to preserve the competitiveness of those small-market clubs. That is always our overriding goal.”

Concerning the markets MLB plans to occupy going forward, Manfred put the kibosh on any short-term expansion possibilities, stating, “There’s no way we’re biting into expansion until we get Tampa and Oakland (which also needs a new stadium) resolved one way or the other.” 

Tampa Bay, however, is exploring becoming a two-city franchise – an idea the league has thrown its support behind. In Manfred’s estimation, the Rays’ proposed Tampa Bay-Montreal team-sharing setup would present “an opportunity to preserve baseball in Tampa Bay. And I’m not prepared to say one way or the other what’s going to happen if that effort turns out to be unsuccessful.”

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top