- The Pirates have hired Kevin Tenenbaum to lead their analytics department as the club’s new VP of research and development, according to reporter John Dreker (X link). The 32-year-old Tenenbaum has spent the last seven seasons in Cleveland’s R&D department, working as the director in 2022 and then VP of the Guardians’ analytics team this past season. This experience with another lower-spending team is surely of interest to the Pirates, especially given the Guards have been a lot more consistently competitive than the Bucs have in recent years despite working with generally comparative payroll.
Guardians Rumors
Six Players Elect Free Agency
As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.
Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.
Catchers
- Joe Hudson (Mets)
Infielders
- Eddy Alvarez (Mets)
- Pablo Reyes (Mets)
Outfielders
- Estevan Florial (Guardians)
Pitchers
- Tyler Beede (Guardians)
- Carlos Carrasco (Guardians)
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers
While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.
No-Doubters
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Max Fried (Braves)
These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.
As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.
Likely
- Sean Manaea (Mets)
Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.
The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.
Borderline Calls
- Luis Severino (Mets)
Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.
The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.
New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.
The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.
- Michael Wacha (Royals)
Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.
It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.
An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.
This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.
Long Shots
- Shane Bieber (Guardians)
Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.
- Jeff Hoffman (Phillies)
Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).
- Nick Martinez (Reds)
Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.
Ineligible
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers)
- Jack Flaherty (Dodgers)
- Yusei Kikuchi (Astros)
- Max Scherzer (Rangers)
- Tanner Scott (Padres)
- Blake Snell (Giants)
Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.
The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.
Guardians Notes: Fry, Free Agents, Coaching Staff
The Guardians had a strong season in 2024 but came up just shy of the ultimate goal, falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. They now head into offseason mode with some questions to be answered. Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed a few interesting notes on X today, arguably with the most notable detail being that David Fry is going to see Dr. Keith Meister about his injured elbow. On top of that, Meisel also says that the entire coaching staff will be back unless someone gets a promotion with another club, and that the Guards have some degree of mutual interest in reunions with free agents Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and Austin Hedges.
Fry had a strong season in 2024, hitting 14 home runs in just 392 plate appearances and drawing walks at a 10.7% clip. That led to a .263/.356/.448 batting line and 129 wRC+. Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching, as the righty hitter had a massive 18.2% walk rate with the platoon advantage but just 5.3% without it, while nine of his 14 long balls were against southpaws. That created lopsided platoon splits with Fry slashing .287/.430/.566 against lefties for a 179 wRC+, while those numbers were .248/.302/.374 and a 94 wRC+ against righties.
While Fry was limited by those splits this year, he was also limited in another way. He is capable of playing various spots on the diamond, with some past experience at catcher and in the four corner spots. But in late June, he was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, as Meisel relayed on X at that time. In the latter half of the season, he mostly served as a designated hitter or pinch hitter, only rarely taking the field. He didn’t play a position other than first base after the month of July.
This left manager Stephen Vogt a little bit hamstrung down the stretch and into the postseason, as he couldn’t but Fry behind the plate. That left the Guards with a catching tandem of Bo Naylor and Hedges. Naylor had a strong year defensively but didn’t hit much. As for Hedges, he’s been on the extreme edge of that profile for a long time, having spent a decade in the big leagues as one of the worst hitters but one of the best backstops when the gear is on.
Fry’s elbow issue was manageable enough that he could hit through it, but it seems he might do a deeper dive now that the season is done. Meister is an elbow specialist who has performed dozens of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures. The fact that Fry is going to see him doesn’t mean that surgery is inevitable, as it will obviously depend on the condition of his elbow, but the meeting is notable nonetheless.
If surgery is required, he’d naturally be in line for a lengthy rehab. Position players can generally return from major elbow surgeries a bit quicker than pitchers, with hitting a possibility before throwing. Bryce Harper was one extreme example, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2022 and then being reinstated in May of 2023, less than six months later. Harper served as a DH for a while and then started playing some first base in July.
Of course, each case is unique and it’s not even a guarantee that going under the knife will be necessary, but that provides a rough guideline of something that could be considered. However, if such a scenario does come to pass, then it makes sense that Guardians would have some interest in bringing back Hedges.
As mentioned, Hedges is an extreme case of a glove-first backstop, which he showed again in 2024 by putting up a line of .152/.203/.220 in his 146 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 20 was the worst in the majors among guys with that many trips to the plate, except for Martín Maldonado’s 11 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances.
But Hedges has consistently been atop defensive leaderboards for catchers. He has 91 Defensive Runs Saved from 2015 to the present, easily the most in baseball with Roberto Pérez second with 75. He’s also tops in terms of Statcast Fielding Run Value for that stretch and second only to Yasmani Grandal in terms of FanGraphs’ framing metric. If Fry is set to miss some time next year, it would make sense to have Hedges come back and share the catching duties with Naylor, at least until Fry is once again an option behind the plate. Hedges signed for $4MM coming into this year and is likely in line for a pay cut, as his hitting in 2024 was below even his own low standards.
As for the other free agents, it’s understandable that Cleveland would be interested in bringing them back as they are all starting pitchers. The Guardians have long been known for their ability to grow rotation options on trees but struggled in that department in 2024. Bieber required Tommy John surgery while pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and others struggled to post decent results.
That led to the club in the unusual position of having to find midseason additions. They signed Boyd, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, to a major league deal in June. He was still on the injured list at the trade deadline when they acquired Cobb and added him into the mix.
Both of those two and Bieber are now heading into free agency. The Cleveland rotation for 2025 projects to be fronted by Tanner Bibee with plenty of question marks after that. Ben Lively posted a 3.81 earned run average in 2024 but that was despite a low strikeout rate of 18.7%. He may have been helped by a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side. His 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest he may have difficulty repeating that ERA. Gavin Williams is a bit of the inverse, as he had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 but with a low 66.9% strand rate, leading to a 3.67 FIP and 4.19 SIERA.
Beyond those three, it gets real murky. Joey Cantillo had a 4.89 ERA in his first major league action but did so with a 9.2% walk rate around league average. Since he’s walked 13.4% of minor leagues faced since the start of 2021 and was at 15% on the farm in 2024, it might not be wise to expect him to keep up that level of control. McKenzie and Allen had ERAs above 5.00 both in the majors and minors this year.
In short, bringing in starting pitching is a logical plan for this offseason. Mutual interest between the pitchers and the club is nice but a fair price will likely be required in each case. Boyd has been injured a lot in recent years but is going into free agency on a high note. He posted a 2.72 ERA with the Guards down the stretch, along with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate, then had a 0.77 ERA in his three playoff outings. He could perhaps parlay that strong finish into a solid two-year deal in free agency and will likely be looking to maximize his guarantee after so many injury absences in his career.
Bieber and Cobb will have less momentum in terms of their earning power. As mentioned, Bieber had Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season and will be slated to miss at least the early parts of the 2025 season. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John sometimes sign two-year deals, but those guys are usually on a path to miss most or all of the first season in those cases. Since Bieber went under the knife in April, he could perhaps play a significant role in 2025 and might try to return to the open market a year from now, either by signing a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out.
Cobb is coming off an injury-marred season that saw him throw just 22 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He came into 2024 recovering from hip surgery and eventually battled through shoulder discomfort as well as fingernail/blister issues on his pitching hand before his season was ended by a lower back strain. Now 37 years old and coming off that year, he’ll have to settle for a fairly modest deal, perhaps heavy with incentives.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $95MM payroll in 2025, which is less than $10MM shy of their 2024 number. That might not leave them a lot to work with this winter unless they’re planning on a notable spending increase. With the club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group now done and MLB taking over in that department, they may have less TV money coming and may not have much appetite for a big bump in the budget.
However, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas are each slated for notable salaries in their respective final seasons of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Naylor for $12MM and Thomas for $8.3MM. The Guardians often trade notable players before they reach free agency, with Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer being some recent examples. Perhaps they would consider the same with Naylor and/or Thomas as a way of freeing up money while also perhaps bolstering the rotation that way. Any free agent pursuits might also hinge on how that market plays out for them.
Cardinals Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach, Robert Cerfolio As Assistant General Manager
The Cardinals announced that they have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach. They also announced the hiring of Jon Jay and a new role for Willie McGee, both of which were reported yesterday. Additionally, they announced that Robert Cerfolio has been hired as assistant general manager, player development and performance. Cerfolio was previously with the Guardians as director of player development. Katie Woo of The Athletic reported on Cerfolio’s hiring earlier today while John Denton of MLB.com identified Brown on X as a leading candidate for the hitting coach job prior to the official announcement.
It’s been well-known for a while now that 2025 is going to be a transitional year for the Cards. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is going to be giving his job to Chaim Bloom after the upcoming season, with the next year or so serving as a slower-than-usual passing of the torch. The franchise is presumably hoping that this will be a smoother transition than the traditional route of an abrupt firing and/or resignation followed by a hasty search for a replacement.
The club is planning to have a lower payroll and a larger focus on its player development pipeline, so plenty of changes are sure to come throughout the various facets of the club. One of those changes will be the addition of Cerfolio. As noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X, Cerfolio is a Yalie, like Bloom, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president Bill DeWitt III.
But his hiring surely goes beyond just his alma mater. As noted by Woo, Cerfolio was hired by the Guardians in 2015, an organization that is known for having a strong player development pipeline that has allowed it to succeed despite consistently low payrolls. That was something the Cardinals were known for earlier this century, though that reputation has faded recently. A clearly stated goal of this current pivot for the Cardinals is to get back to being that type of organization.
As Mozeliak handles the day-to-day operations of the Cards for the next year and Bloom focuses on that player development apparatus, he has brought Cerfolio aboard to help modernize things for the club. Woo says Bloom is expected to make dozens of hires as part of this process, so Cerfolio is just one piece of the puzzle.
Turning to the coaching staff, it was reported earlier this month that hitting coach Turner Ward would not have his contract renewed for 2025, creating a vacancy that Brown is now filling. Now 53, Brown played in the majors from 1996 to 2000. He then pivoted to coaching, starting with gigs in the minors. He was hired by the Dodgers going into 2018 and was on that club’s staff through 2022, first as assistant hitting coach and then as hitting strategist.
He spent 2023 as the hitting coach of the Marlins then jumped to the Mariners prior to the 2024 season, getting the title of offensive coordinator in Seattle. However, at the end of May 2024, the M’s parted ways with Brown even though he had only been hired in December. Offensive struggles were a key part of the narrative for the Mariners in 2024 and director of hitting strategy Jarret DeHart, who had taken on a larger role when Brown was fired, was also dismissed in August.
It’s always difficult to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach. While the Mariners struggled under Brown’s brief tenure, they also had notable problems the year prior, making it fair to ask if any coach could have made a meaningful difference with the way the roster was constructed. For what it’s worth, the Dodgers performed well during Brown’s time there while his one season in Miami was their only full-season playoff berth in the past 20 years. The club had a subpar 92 wRC+ in 2023 but that was still a bump relative to their 83 in 2022 and 86 in 2024.
Time will tell what kind of club the Cardinals will field in 2025, but it’s generally expected that their planned retooling period could lead to some trades of veterans that aren’t likely to be part of the next competitive window. If that comes to pass, Brown could be tasked with guiding a relatively young roster consisting of players looking to take steps forward at the major league level.
Alex Cobb Replaced By Ben Lively On Guardians’ ALCS Roster
Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster change for the Guardians, with right-hander Alex Cobb replaced by fellow righty Ben Lively. MLB didn’t announce the specific nature of Cobb’s injury but the Guards announced it as an acute left low back strain. Per MLB playoff roster rules, a player removed with an injury is not eligible to return during that series nor in the subsequent series. That means that Cobb won’t be available for the World Series if Cleveland makes it, so his season is now over.
It’s an unfortunate development both for Cobb and the Guardians. The club acquired him prior to the deadline a few months ago in the hopes of bolstering their rotation, which had been slowed down both by injuries and underperformance. But Cobb had been having his own injury issues prior to the trade and struggled to stay healthy after it, which will impact his earning power as he heads into free agency this winter.
Cobb, 37, has a lengthy track record that includes a 3.84 earned run average in 233 starts dating back to his 2011 debut. He signed a two-year deal with the Giants for the 2022 and 2023 seasons and pitched rather well. He made 28 starts in each of those seasons, with his ERA coming in a bit below 4.00 in each of them. He tossed 301 innings in those two years with a 3.80 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 59.4% ground ball rate.
He underwent hip surgery in October of 2023 with a six-month recovery estimate but the Giants still felt good enough about his prognosis to exercise a $10MM club option for the 2024 season. The news of his recovery was fairly positive throughout the winter and it seemed there was a chance that he could be pitching in the majors early in 2024, but he got transferred to the 60-day injured list in mid-April after he was slowed by shoulder inflammation. Even at that point, the Giants were hoping for a late-May return but his shoulder discomfort lingered.
He was still on the IL as the trade deadline was approaching but he was rehabbing at the time and the Guardians decided to take a shot on him, sending minor league left-hander Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later (later announced as minor league infielder Nate Furman) to San Francisco. The Guards had lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery while hurlers like Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco had struggled badly. Despite the challenges in the rotation, the Cleveland bullpen was the best in baseball in 2024, helping them lead the American League Central for most of the way.
Cobb made his debut for the Guards on August 9 but only made two starts before going back on the IL, this time due to a fractured nail on his right hand. He was reinstated from the IL and made another start for Cleveland in early September but returned to the IL after that, this time due to blisters on his pitching hand.
Though he missed the final few weeks of the season, the Guards added Cobb to their roster for the ALDS against the Tigers. He started the third game of that series but was pulled after three innings, having thrown 41 pitches while allowing two earned runs. He then started the first game of the ALCS against the Yankees last night, tossing 65 pitches but without making it out of the third inning and with three earned runs on his ledger.
Now it seems this back injury will add to a very frustrating season for the veteran, as it’s evidently serious enough that they felt compelled to remove him. As mentioned, he won’t be eligible to return in the ALCS. If they make it to the World Series, he won’t be an option there either.
He’ll be heading into free agency having just turned 37 years old and without much of a platform season. Around the hip recovery, the shoulder problems, the hand issues and now this back strain, he only made the three regular season starts and two more in the postseason, logging a total of 22 innings.
For the Guardians, they will have to try to stay alive with their pitching depth thinned out even further. Without Cobb, they have Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams as their top three starters, with those three able to start the next three contests. By game five, scheduled for Saturday, they may have to consider a bullpen game, with guys like Joey Cantillo or Lively possibilities for bulk innings.
Lively, 32, had a solid year for the Guards in terms of surface-level results but less in terms of underlying numbers. He made 29 starts and logged 159 innings with a 3.81 ERA, but his 18.7% strikeout rate and 41.9% ground ball rate were both subpar. He did keep his walks down to a 7.8% clip and his 6.5% barrel rate was considered by Statcast to be in the 73rd percentile, but his 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest his ERA could be at least slightly misleading. Game two of the ALCS kicks off in the Bronx tonight at 7:38pm local time.
Mutual Interest Between Guardians, Shane Bieber On New Contract?
Shane Bieber’s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health. It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract. Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.
Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians. A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab. From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.
Guardians Add Pedro Avila To ALCS Roster
The Guardians set their roster for their ALCS showdown with the Yankees and announced only one change from their ALDS roster: infielder/outfielder Angel Martinez has been swapped out for right-handed reliever Pedro Avila.
Martinez, 22, was a mid-series addition to the ALDS roster, taking the place of Tyler Freeman after he suffered a left oblique strain. Freeman didn’t get into a game during the Division Series but sustained the injury during a simulated game ramping up for that round of play. Martinez took his spot on the roster but only wound up tallying one plate appearance. With the Guards now facing down a best-of-seven series, they’ll opt for an additional arm in the bullpen rather than a switch-hitting utilityman off the bench.
Avila, 27, was acquired from the Padres in exchange for cash back in April after San Diego had designated him for assignment. He went on to play a major role as a multi-inning option out of Stephen Vogt’s bullpen, appearing in 50 games and tallying 74 2/3 innings with Cleveland. Along the way, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA, fanned 23% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9.4% clip and kept 43.1% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground.
Avila was primarily used in lower-leverage spots and will presumably work in a similar capacity if called upon in the ALCS. He had several appearances spanning more than one frame in 2024, topping out with a handful of three-inning outings.
The ALCS will kick off tonight in New York at 7:38pm ET, when the Guards send veteran righty Alex Cobb to the mound against Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Neither has fared particularly well in the postseason thus far. Game 2 will feature a battle of staff aces when Cleveland sends young Tanner Bibee to the mound against 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound in Game 3 on Thursday. The Guardians have not yet announced a starter in Game 3. Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams are the only two other starters on the roster.
Overall, Cleveland’s ALCS roster breaks down as follows:
Catchers
Infielder
Outfielders
Pitchers
Marlins Reportedly Interested In Craig Albernaz For Managerial Vacancy
The Marlins are reportedly considering former bench coach Luis Urueta and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz for their managerial vacancy, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Urueta is perhaps something of an unusual candidate since the Marlins already fired him as part of their wide-ranging purge of the coaching staff, training staff, and clubhouse attendants, though reports indicated that Urueta and Jon Jay were the only two coaches Miami had interest in bringing back. It isn’t known if the Marlins have conducted formal interviews with Urueta, Albernaz, or any other candidates, though in Albernaz’s case, his availability is limited until the Guardians’ playoff run is over.
Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?
Yesterday, the Guardians punched their ticket to the ALCS with an emphatic 7-3 win over the Tigers that included a Lane Thomas Grand Slam off of likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, allowing Cleveland to take the fifth and and final game of the series.
As the NLCS (the result of which you can vote on here) kicks off between the Dodgers and Mets today, the Guardians will be traveling to New York for Game 1 against the Yankees, which is scheduled for tomorrow night. The Yankees spent the early part of the weekend waiting to see who their opponent would be after dispatching the Royals in four games. The early finish to the series gave the club three days off to realign their rotation and rest their bullpen for the upcoming seven-game set, a welcome breather given the fact that the Orioles hung around the AL East race deep into September.
No one should be surprised the Yankees have made it this far. After all, just two years after Aaron Judge’s herculean 62-homer effort delivered the club to the postseason despite virtually no support from the rest of the lineup throughout the second half of the season in 2022, Judge delivered arguably an even more impressive season in 2024 that should earn him his second AL MVP trophy. Perhaps even more important than Judge’s dominant season, however, is the fact that this year he had help in the form of Juan Soto. The Yankees were aggressive in pursuing Soto when the Padres made him available last winter, and ultimately gave up a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe to acquire another star who could complement Judge in the lineup. Soto delivered on that promise and then some, slashing a sensational .288/.419/.569 in 157 games amid the best season of the 25-year-old’s career.
While the Yankees were widely expected to make some noise this season after adding Soto, the Guardians entered the 2024 season as little more than an afterthought. The club went just 76-89 last year and made few major changes over the offseason besides hiring Stephen Vogt to take over in the dugout after longtime manager Terry Francona elected to depart the club amid health issues, and an early-season injury to Shane Bieber in his final year under club control appeared to many to be the final nail in the club’s coffin this year.
That’s not how things turned out, however, as the Guardians managed to ride strong production from Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan in the lineup in conjunction with an otherworldly effort from the club’s bullpen to 92 wins, enough to dominate a resurgent and highly competitive AL Central division. While the entire Cleveland bullpen was extremely impressive, with a collective 2.57 ERA that was more than half a run better than the league’s second-best relief corps, closer Emmanuel Clase put together one of the most impressive seasons by a reliever in MLB history. Among all relief seasons with at least 50 innings of work since the start of the modern era in 1901, Clase’s ERA- of 15 ranks second to only Zack Britton’s dominant 2016 season. Even looking beyond Clase, however, the Cleveland bullpen has been something to behold this year as Eli Morgan, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and youngster Cade Smith each joined Clase in posting sub-2.00 ERAs, though none were quite as dominant as their closer’s 0.61 figure.
The Guardians, without any notable players on the verge of returning from injury or suffering from known day-to-day issues that could take them out of discussion for the roster, aren’t facing much uncertainty regarding their roster as they prepare to submit their final roster decisions tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Yankees, who plan to wait until Monday to finalize decisions not only on how many pitchers the club will carry into the ALCS but also on the status of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who suffered two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season and was unavailable during the ALDS.
In the rotation, it seems fair to say the Yankees have a substantial advantage. While neither side has announced a probable starter for Game 1, the club has penciled veteran ace Gerrit Cole in to start Game 2 and with breakout rookie Luis Gil expected to take the ball later in the series, it seems likely that either lefty Carlos Rodon or righty Clarke Schmidt will be on the bump for New York in Game 1, with Marcus Stroman also available as a potential depth option for the rotation if necessary.
The Guardians, meanwhile, relied on the trio of Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb to get them through the ALDS. Cobb will be the only one on full rest in time for Game 1, making him the club’s most likely option to start the game, but it’s worth noting that both he and Boyd combined for just 11 starts during the regular season and managed just 9 2/3 innings across their three starts during the ALDS. Dominant as the Guardians’ bullpen has been this postseason, it remains to be seen if the club can rely on their relievers to throw nearly 60% of the team’s innings in a seven-game series as they did during their five-game set against the Tigers.
How will the ALCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?
