Guardians Rumors

Finding a new manager is the first order of business for the Guardians, as Terry Francona is retiring after a Cooperstown-worthy managerial career.  The offseason’s first weeks will be dominated by news of the managerial search, but Cleveland will still face lingering questions about how to upgrade the lineup, and whether or not to trade Shane Bieber.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Jose Ramirez, 3B: $105MM through 2028
• Andres Gimenez, IF: $101.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
• Myles Straw, OF: $19.25MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
• Emmanuel Clase, RP: $15MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
• Trevor Stephan, RP: $8.65MM through 2026 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $7.25MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $7.5MM club option with no buyout on Stephan’s 2028 season)

Other Financial Obligations

• $10.5MM owed to Jean Segura (released on August 1)

Total 2024 commitments: $41.1MM
Total future commitments: $259.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
• Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
• Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
• Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
• Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
• James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
• Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
• Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
• Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
• Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM
• Non-tender candidates: Gallagher, Laureano, Karinchak

Free Agents

• Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Kole Calhoun, Daniel Norris

Francona’s final season unfortunately didn’t include any more postseason magic, as the Guardians finished with a 76-86 record — just the second losing record for Francona in his last 19 seasons as a manager.  Since the Twins didn’t pull away until later in the season, the relative weakness of the AL Central left the Guardians in an odd state of quasi-contention, resulting in an unusual slate of transactions in the second half.

The pre-deadline moves of Amed Rosario (to the Dodgers), Aaron Civale (to the Rays) and Josh Bell (to the Marlins) seemed like a borderline concession, yet with Cleveland still just two games behind Minnesota at the end of August, the Guards took advantage of the Angels’ semi-fire sale on the waiver wire to claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore for the stretch run.  A 12-16 record in September and October finally did Cleveland in, and the real white flag was waived on September 19 when the Guardians themselves put Moore on waivers, and the southpaw was claimed away by the Marlins.

The sub.-500 record doesn’t mean the Guards will explore a rebuild, however.  The franchise’s state of more or less perpetual contention isn’t likely to end now that Francona is gone, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff still have plenty of talent on hand.  Superstar Jose Ramirez is still in his prime, and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) now both look like impressive young hitters, with Bo performing well in his first extended taste of MLB action as the Guardians’ regular catcher.

However, the rest of the lineup was lacking.  The Guardians finished last among all teams in home runs, 29th of 30 in slugging percentage, and 27th in both OPS and runs scored.  It was another inconsistent offense that required the pitching staff to be great to have a hope of legitimately contending, so when a number of injuries reduced the staff to being just decent, the club suffered.

For some added salt in the lineup’s wound, outfielders Nolan Jones (Rockies) and Will Benson (Reds) ended up having breakout seasons after the Guardians respectively dealt the outfielders in offseason trades.  It’s hard to say if either Jones or Benson would’ve posted similar numbers if they’d have stayed in Cleveland, though that might speak to a separate issue of why the organization couldn’t unlock that potential itself.

More offense is clearly necessary, so where can the Guardians improve?  Ramirez and the Naylors have third base, first base, and catcher covered.  Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan will hold everyday positions in 2024, even if perhaps not necessarily in their normal spots of second base and left field.  Getting Gimenez anywhere close to his 2022 numbers would be a boost unto itself for the Guardians, as after signing a seven-year, $106.5MM extension, he delivered only around league-average production this season.

If Gimenez isn’t moved across the middle infield, former top-100 prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and Tyler Freeman will all be competing for the shortstop job.  Arias is the favorite since he received most of the playing time in the latter stages of 2023, though none of the trio has hit much of anything during their (admittedly small) sample size of MLB playing time.  With these three, Jose Tena, Juan Brito, and more interesting middle-infield prospects down on the farm, Cleveland could again look to trade from this surplus for help at other positions.

This leaves the DH spot and the two non-Kwan outfield positions as the most obvious positions of need.  Kwan is one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, but if he can handle center field, Myles Straw could become a fourth outfielder and allow for the Guardians to put more pop into the corner slots.  Straw continues to be an excellent defender, but also one of the least-impactful hitters in baseball.  Among other in-house outfielders, Will Brennan didn’t hit much, Oscar Gonzalez hit even less and was relegated to Triple-A, and Ramon Laureano had about league-average production after being claimed from the A’s in August, but that’s probably not enough to avoid a non-tender.

First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024, and the Guardians would love to see any of them have an immediate breakout.  In the interim, however, the Guards need bats now, thus opening the door for one or two veteran bats on short-term control.

After spending relatively big by their standards to sign Bell (two years, $33MM), and Mike Zunino (one year, $6MM), one wonders if the Guardians are willing to stretch the budget even that far into free agency.  The pickings are slim in general in this winter’s thin position-player market, and Cleveland’s choices are further limited by their modest payroll.  Furthering narrowing the field is the left-handed slant of the current Guardians lineup, so the team might prioritize right-handed or switch-hitters.

Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or a bounce-back candidate like Hunter Renfroe could fit.  If more lefty swingers are on the radar, maybe Joc Pederson or old friend Michael Brantley could fall within the Guards’ price range.  The Guardians figure to be one of many teams vying for Aaron Hicks since the Yankees are covering almost all of his salary over the next two seasons, but the rejuvenated Hicks might prefer to join a more clear-cut contender or just stay in Baltimore.  For first base/DH types that could share time with Josh Naylor, players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper, or another former Cleveland staple in Carlos Santana could be considered.

Turning to the trade market, the Guardians’ enviable ability to keep developing quality big league starters can get them involved in several trade conversations, depending on how much pitching depth Cleveland is willing to sacrifice.  Making a blockbuster strike for, say, Juan Soto doesn’t fit Antonetti/Chernoff’s traditionally measured approach, but landing a quality bat with more team control is a possibility.  Teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Nationals are all varying degrees of fits in pitcher-for-outfielder scenarios, and any number of clubs could further emerge since every team always needs pitching in a broad sense.

Could landing a veteran bat for Shane Bieber be feasible?  It would depart from the Guardians’ usual model of trying to get at least one big league-ready younger talent and a longer-term prospect when dealing one of its established veteran stars, yet Bieber’s trade stock has taken a bit of a dip.  Bieber is only arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and he has had two of his last three seasons shortened by injuries.  It seems possible that Cleveland might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline if he’d been healthy, rather than on the 60-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.

Though years of Bieber-related trade rumors seem to have led to this crescendo in the 2023-24 offseason, an argument can be made that the Guardians should also hold onto the right-hander until at least the trade deadline.  This past season has underlined the importance of rotation depth, with Bieber and Cal Quantrill each missing a good chunk of the season and Triston McKenzie limited to only 16 innings.  If Bieber was dealt, Cleveland would be left with a rotation of McKenzie and Quantrill looking for bounce-back years, and the outstanding but inexperienced rookie trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  It’s still a solid group on paper, though more injuries or at least one sophomore slump could again leave the Guards scrambling, even if more young arms (headlined by Xzavion Curry) are waiting for their opportunity.

If Bieber was retained, the Guardians could explore moving Quantrill as an alternative, as Quantrill has two years of arbitration eligibility to Bieber’s one.  It would also be something of a sell-low situation given how shoulder problems limited Quantrill to 99 2/3 innings (with a 5.24 ERA) in 2023.  Bieber also has more front-of-the-rotation upside, whereas teams might have more questions about Quantrill’s low-strikeout, soft-contact approach, even he has produced very good results when healthy over the last four seasons.

The bullpen was around the middle of the pack last year, though any upgrades might be pretty low-key since Cleveland hasn’t traditionally made many splashes in adding relief pitching.  Bringing in another left-hander could be a priority, or just a veteran arm or two on a minor league contract.  As always, the bullpen could be a way for some MLB-ready future starters to get their feet wet against big league competition, like how Curry worked mostly as a reliever in 2023.

The bench might likewise not get a lot of focus, and if a couple of new outfield/DH types are indeed acquired, the bench mix could be somewhat set given the presence of Straw, Brennan, and the utility infielders.  Cam Gallagher’s lack of offense makes him a non-tender candidate, but since the Guardians have shown a propensity for all-glove/no-bat catchers, the team might retain him as Naylor’s backup.  If Gallagher is let go, utilityman David Fry might be considered for the role, if the Guards are okay having a backup catcher with more versatility than normal.

In some ways, 2023 paralleled Cleveland’s previous losing season in 2021, when several pitching injuries dropped the team to an 80-82 record.  With this in mind, better rotation health alone might be enough to get the Guards (as they did in 2022) right back into contention the following season, even if adding more hitting might be a cleaner path to consistent winning than continuing to rely so heavily on pitching and defense.  There is also the x-factor of whether or not the Guardians’ winning formula can continue without Francona skillfully balancing the dugout, as there’s naturally no way to entirely replace what the skipper brought to the organization.  Nobody expects the Guardians’ next manager to be the next Francona, but there’s plenty of pressure trying to both fill the shoes of a legend and try a team back into the playoff hunt.

Click here to read the transcript of the Guardians-centric Mark Polishuk held in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook