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Gavin Williams Shut Down After Experiencing Setback

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Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams, who’s been out all season due to inflammation in his right elbow, experienced continued discomfort after his recent throwing session against live hitters, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll receive an injection and be shut down for the next seven days before being reevaluated. The team is hopeful that’ll prove sufficient, but it’s an ominous development for the prized young right-hander.

Williams, 24, was Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2021 and debuted in 2023 with considerable fanfare. He entered last season ranked among the sport’s top 50 prospects — as high as No. 20 on Baseball America’s top 100 list — and showed why with an outstanding debut effort. In his first 82 MLB frames, spread across 16 starts, the East Carolina University product posted a strong 3.29 earned run average with a solid 23.5% strikeout rate. Williams’ 10.7% walk rate was higher than he and the team would’ve preferred, but walks weren’t an issue for him during the 2022 season in the lower minors.

Between Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, the Guardians ushered in the next core of their rotation in one fell swoop last season. All three top-100 prospects hit the ground running, albeit to varying extents. But the outlook in Cleveland has changed considerably this season. Shane Bieber’s season is already over after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Triston McKenzie, whom doctors recommended for rest and rehab when he incurred a ligament injury of his own late last year, has seen a sharp velocity dip and hasn’t looked like himself at all. Bibee and Allen have both struggled thus far.

The Guardians have been banking on a healthy Williams returning to the fold to help fill out a rotation that currently includes Bibee, Allen, McKenzie, journeyman Ben Lively and old friend Carlos Carrasco, who’s back on a reunion tour after signing a minor league deal. Prior to today’s news, it looked as though Williams might be able to head out on a rehab assignment in the near future and rejoin the rotation in the middle of next month. That timeline has now been torn up and will hinge on how his elbow responds to the injection.

Cleveland develops pitching better than perhaps any organization in the game, but their ability to do so is being tested at a high level early this season. The Guards can ill afford another long-term absence for one of their key rotation members. Beyond injuries to Bieber and Williams and the previously mentioned struggles of the incumbent arms (McKenzie in particular), prospect Daniel Espino has already been lost for the season due to shoulder surgery — his second in as many years. Fellow prospect Joey Cantillo hasn’t pitched yet this season, as the left-hander suffered a torn hamstring that’ll sideline him for a total of eight to ten weeks. Right-hander Xzavion Curry is an option in Triple-A, but he profiles as a swingman or fifth starter.

The Guards have already added some depth with early acquisitions of righty Zak Kent from the Rangers, Wes Parsons from the Blue Jays and Pedro Avila from the Padres. Any of the bunch could be tasked with stepping into the rotation. However, if the Guards hope to continue at the torrid pace with which they’ve started the season (17-6, +55 run differential), they’ll need to get their current arms healthy and on-track or perhaps eventually look outside the organization.

Larry Brown Passes Away

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Twelve-year Major League veteran Larry Brown passed away earlier this week at age 84.  Brown is survived by his wife Leni, their three daughters, and nine grandchildren.

Brown hit .233/.300/.313 over 3872 plate appearances and 1129 games with the Indians, A’s, Orioles, and Rangers from 1963-74.  The first nine of those seasons were spent in Cleveland, where Brown became an infield regular and the team’s starting shortstop in 1967-68 and for much of the 1969 campaign.  The large majority of Brown’s career (712 games) came at shortstop, though he had a good chunk of playing time at second base and third base.  After being acquired by the Athletics in April 1971, Brown played in 70 games for Oakland’s AL West-winning team that season, and he then made 47 appearances for the 1972 A’s team that captured the World Series (though Brown didn’t see any playoff action).

Beyond his production on the diamond, Brown was also known for one of the more frightening on-field injuries of his era.  On May 4, 1966, Brown and teammate Leon Wagner collided in pursuit of a fly ball, with Brown suffering a fractured skull, cheekbone, and nose.  Incredibly, Brown was back in action by June 16, and continued to play more or less an everyday role for the remainder of the season.

The obituary provided by Brown’s family provides many details of Brown’s life inside and outside baseball, including his 62-year marriage to Leni, the love of his life.  We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Brown’s family, friends, and teammates.

Guardians Notes: McKenzie, Lively, Curry, Martinez

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Triston McKenzie has had a rough start to the season, allowing 11 runs over his first 13 innings. The lanky righty has issued 12 walks with just five strikeouts. His swinging strike rate has plummeted to 5.6% while his velocity has backed up. McKenzie’s average fastball has sat at 90.9 MPH, down from its standard 92-93 range.

McKenzie entered the season hoping for a rebound after his 2023 campaign was mostly lost to injury. He began last year on the shelf with a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder. He returned in June, made two starts, and then was shut back down after spraining the UCL in his throwing elbow. That initially led to concern that he might go under the knife, but he opted for non-surgical rehab. McKenzie made it back for a pair of appearances in the final week of the season.

While he was able to get back to the mound, McKenzie clearly hasn’t been operating at peak form. The 26-year-old candidly admitted to Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd of the Athletic that he’s still unsure whether his decision not to undergo surgery was the correct one. McKenzie told The Athletic that he’s not pitching through pain but conceded the possibility of a serious injury is “always in the back of (his) head.” While he said that hasn’t changed his approach or effort level on the mound, he clearly hasn’t found his best stuff.

Meisel’s and Lloyd’s piece is worth a full perusal, as they also speak with former Cleveland reliever Bryan Shaw and Guards starter Shane Bieber about the health and contractual considerations a player weighs when deciding whether to undergo surgery. Bieber, of course, opted for non-surgical rehab for elbow inflammation last season. After two excellent starts this year, he required Tommy John surgery — a brutal development six months before his first trip to free agency. McKenzie has three seasons of remaining arbitration control and won’t get to the open market until the 2026-27 offseason.

Bieber’s absence makes it all the more significant that McKenzie is able to get back on track in short order. The Guardians have also been without Gavin Williams thus far after the second-year righty experienced elbow discomfort of his own this spring. McKenzie has been joined Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Carlos Carrasco in the rotation. Of that quartet, only Carrasco has an ERA below 4.82 so far.

The Guardians have nevertheless gotten out to a great start behind an excellent bullpen and a surprisingly potent offense. They enter today’s series finale against the Red Sox with a 12-6 record. Still, the rotation will feel tenuous — at least until Williams’ return — if McKenzie’s struggles continue.

In the short term, it seems journeyman righty Ben Lively will hold down the #5 spot. He somewhat surprisingly landed a major league contract from Cleveland after being waived by the Reds last winter. Lively started the season on the IL after being delayed by an illness, but he was activated for his team debut last night. The 32-year-old worked five innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in a loss to Boston.

Lively is out of options, so the Guardians need to keep him on the big league club or put him on waivers. That perhaps gave him the edge over Xzavion Curry, who was optioned back to Triple-A Columbus as the corresponding move for Lively’s reinstatement. Curry had returned from his own virus-related IL stint to make his season debut on Monday. He worked five scoreless frames with a trio of strikeouts and could be the top depth option if anyone from the current rotation suffers an injury.

In other Guardians news, the team placed infield prospect Angel Martínez on the 60-day injured list yesterday. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, Martínez is undergoing surgery to repair a hamate fracture in his wrist. The 22-year-old has yet to make his MLB debut. He split last season between the top two levels of the minors, hitting .251/.321/.392 with 14 homers.

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Guardians Acquire Pedro Avila

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April 17: The teams announced that Avila has been traded from San Diego to Cleveland in exchange for cash. In a corresponding 40-man move, the Guards transferred infielder Angel Martinez from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.

April 16: The Guardians are acquiring right-hander Pedro Avila from the Padres, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (on X). San Diego had designated Avila for assignment last week.

Avila has had a tough start to the 2024 campaign. The Venezuelan-born pitcher has allowed eight runs in as many innings over his first four appearances. Avila has fanned nine but issued six walks and tossed three wild pitches. Inconsistent command has been an issue throughout the 27-year-old’s big league tenure. Avila has walked nearly 12% of batters faced over his 71 2/3 career innings.

While he has yet to find sustained success, Avila has shown the ability to miss bats at the highest level. He has punched out nearly a quarter of opponents in his career behind a solid 11.7% swinging strike rate. Avila’s fastball velocity is more solid than standout (typically 93-94 MPH) but his changeup has been a reliably excellent swing-and-miss offering.

Avila has come out of the bullpen for 14 of his 22 major league outings. He’s been a starter in the minors, although his recent rotation work was not effective. He was tagged for an unsightly 8.57 ERA over 19 appearances (15 of them starts) in the Pacific Coast League last season. That pushed his career Triple-A earned run average to 5.59 in 190 innings. Avila has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate at that level, where he has handed out free passes at a lofty 11.2% clip.

Since he’s out of options, Avila can’t be sent to the minors without going through waivers. The Guardians figure to give him a look in the MLB bullpen as a long reliever. Cleveland has a fair bit of roster flexibility in that regard. Of their current middle innings group, only Tyler Beede can’t be optioned.

Despite their inexperience, the Guards’ bullpen has been excellent in the early going. They went into play Wednesday with an MLB-best 1.76 ERA and the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (27.6%). Cleveland has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once Avila’s acquisition is finalized.

Fritz Peterson Passes Away

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Former All-Star pitcher Fritz Peterson has passed away at age 82. The Yankees announced the news this evening and offered their condolences to Peterson’s family.

“The Yankees are deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Fritz Peterson, who was a formidable pitcher and affable presence throughout his nine years in pinstripes,” the team said in a statement. “Along with longtime teammate Mel Stottlemyre, Peterson was part of a devastating one-two combination at the top of the Yankees’ rotation.

A known prankster and well-liked among his teammates and coaches, Peterson had an outgoing personality and inquisitive nature that brought lightheartedness to the clubhouse on a regular basis and belied his prowess on the mound — most notably his impeccable control, which was among the best in the Majors. Peterson will be greatly missed by the Yankees, and we offer our heartfelt condolences to his wife, Susanne, and the entire Peterson family.”

A Chicago native, Peterson attended Northern Illinois before signing with the Yankees. He began his career in 1963 and reached the major leagues three years later. The southpaw stepped into the New York rotation as a rookie and spent nearly a decade in the Bronx. Even by the standards of an era of baseball defined by low scoring, Peterson was an excellent pitcher. He turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in three straight seasons from 1968-70. The left-hander’s 2.70 mark over that stretch ranked 12th among 122 qualified hurlers.

Peterson earned an All-Star nod in 1970, a season in which he worked 260 1/3 frames of 2.90 ERA ball. A stellar control artist, he led the American League in WHIP in both 1969 and ’70 and had the Junior Circuit’s lowest BB/9 rate in five straight seasons from 1968-72. He led qualified AL pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratio in consecutive seasons from 1969-70.

While that late-60s run was Peterson’s peak, he remained a reliable part of the New York rotation through the ’73 season. New York traded him to the Indians early in 1974 as part of a package for future ALCS hero Chris Chambliss. Peterson pitched parts of three years in Cleveland, working to a 4.34 ERA in 346 innings. He had a brief stint with the Rangers before retiring after undergoing shoulder surgery in 1977.

In addition to his on-field accomplishments, Peterson was known for his 1973 “wife swap” with teammate Mike Kekich. Peterson, Kekich and their respective wives, Marilyn and Susanne, decided to reshuffle their relationships after falling for one another. “All of us felt the same way. We went on from there and eventually he fell in love with my wife and I fell in love with his. … Actually, it was a husband trade — Mike for me or me for Mike. It’s a love story. It wasn’t anything dirty,” Peterson would later say (link via Michael Blinn of the New York Post). While Kekich and Marilyn had a brief relationship, Fritz and Susanne Peterson remained together for a half-century until his passing.

Peterson finished his career with a 3.30 ERA in more than 2200 innings. He recorded more than 1000 strikeouts, won 133 games and threw 20 shutouts. MLBTR joins those around the game offering condolences to his family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.

Guardians Acquire Wes Parsons From Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays have traded right-hander Wes Parsons to the Guardians for $250K of international bonus pool space, per announcements from both clubs. Parsons was designated for assignment by the Jays last week and has now been optioned to Triple-A Columbus. Righty Shane Bieber was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Parsons. It was reported over the weekend that Bieber will undergo Tommy John surgery, thus missing the remainder of the 2024 season.

Parsons, 31, pitched in the majors in 2018 and 2019 but then didn’t make it to the show in 2020 and headed to Korea for a couple of years. Over 2021 and 2022, he threw 176 innings for the NC Dinos of the KBO League with a combined earned run average of 3.68.

He returned to North America by signing a minor league deal with the Jays in 2023, then went on to make 17 starts for Triple-A Buffalo with an ERA of 4.52. He struck out 27.5% of batters faced in that time with a 44.2% ground ball rate but also issued walks at a 12.6% clip. He was added to the big league roster on the last day of the regular season after the Jays clinched a playoff spot the day before, allowing nine earned runs in four innings that day.

He lasted on the club’s 40-man through the winter and cracked the Opening Day roster after the Jays’ pitching staff suffering spring injuries to Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. Parsons tossed five innings over two appearances in the early going but allowed six earned runs and got bumped off the roster in favor of Paolo Espino.

The results have not been pretty over the last three MLB outings for Parsons, but that’s obviously a tiny sample of work. He was in decent form in Triple-A last year and had good results in the KBO over the two years prior to that. The Guardians had a roster spot to burn with the recent news of Bieber’s surgery and will use that, along with that international money, to add some optionable pitching depth to their system.

For the Jays, Parsons got squeezed off their roster but it seems there was enough interest around the league that they were able to get something in return before his DFA window was up. They will now presumably use that extra pool space to sign a young player, or perhaps multiple young players, to add to their farm system.

Central Notes: Grandal, Delay, Borucki, Gipson-Long, Edman, Martínez 

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Alex Stumpf of MLB.com offered a series of Pirates injury updates today.

Yasmani Grandal is still a few weeks away from coming off the injured list as he recovers from plantar fasciitis. However, he seems to be making good progress, and Stumpf reports that he will begin baserunning in the coming days. He has already been participating in simulated games. The two-time All-Star spent his last four seasons with the White Sox. His days as one of the best catchers in baseball are long behind him, but the Pirates are hoping he can be a capable veteran backup.

In less positive catching news, Jason Delay has been shut down from all baseball activities with little explanation. He has been on the IL since April 3 (retroactive to April 1) with right knee inflammation. The long-time minor leaguer had a mini breakout with the Pirates last year. Although his offensive numbers weren’t so impressive, he played 68 games behind the dish and put up strong defensive metrics, looking like a solid backup option.

On the pitching side, Ryan Borucki is recovering quickly from left triceps inflammation that landed him on the IL retroactive to April 6. Borucki, 30, entered the year hoping to follow up on a strong 2023 season in Pittsburgh. While the southpaw struggled through a pair of injury-riddled seasons with the Blue and Mariners in 2021 and ’22, he was a master of control for the Pirates in 2023. In 40 1/3 innings, Borucki walked just four batters. The only other pitcher with so few bases on balls (min. 30 IP) was Jacob deGrom. Stumpf notes that Borucki will begin playing catch soon, and he shouldn’t be on the IL for much longer than the minimum 15 days.

In other news from around the NL and AL Central:

  • The Tigers released a medical update today (shared by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) that revealed right-handed pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long is dealing with right forearm tightness. He was already on the IL recovering from a groin strain. The 26-year-old is undergoing medical evaluation to determine the severity of the injury. Gipson-Long made four starts for the Tigers last year but retains his rookie eligibility for 2024. He is the team’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and No. 19 according to Baseball America.
  • Cardinals center fielder Tommy Edman has been approved to begin his hitting progression, reports Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His first step is hitting off a tee. While Edman will still need plenty of preparation to transition from a tee to MLB-caliber pitching, this marks an important step in his recovery. The Gold Glove-winner has been sidelined all year with a wrist injury.
  • Guardians infield prospect Angel Martínez has been on the 10-day IL since Opening Day with a right foot contusion he suffered this spring. Today, he was sent to Triple-A Columbus for a rehab assignment. Although Martínez is on Cleveland’s 40-man roster, he has yet to make his MLB debut. He will likely stay at Triple-A once his rehab stint is up, where he will look to improve upon a poor showing at the plate last season. Martínez, 22, is widely considered a top-10 prospect in the Guardians system. He is a candidate to earn a call-up to the MLB squad in the event of an injury to another infielder.

Shane Bieber To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Guardians ace Shane Bieber will soon be undergoing a Tommy John surgery after experiencing elbow pain in each of his last two starts, the team announced.  Bieber will miss the rest of the 2024 season and roughly half of the 2025 season, as per the usual recovery timeline for TJ procedures.  As initially reported by MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, right-hander Peter Strzelecki has been called to take Bieber’s roster spot, now that the Guards have officially placed Bieber on the 15-day injured list.  (He’ll inevitably be moved to the 60-day IL when Cleveland next needs to open a 40-man roster spot.)

The devastating news comes on the heels of an injury-shortened 2023 campaign for the right-hander, as Bieber was limited to 128 innings while missing about two and a half months due to elbow inflammation.  He returned from the 60-day injured list to make two starts in late September, which seemingly indicated that the problem was behind him, and that Bieber could now look forward to a more normal offseason and ramp-up routine.  However, as the Guardians’ statement indicates, Bieber had some discomfort in his elbow following his first start this year, and the problem continued through his next outing.

Certainly nothing appeared to be amiss in terms of results, given that Bieber looked completely dominant in tossing 12 shutout innings and recording 20 strikeouts (against just one walk and 10 hits allowed) over his two starts.  This will now unfortunately mark the last we’ll see of Bieber on a big league mound for the next 13-15 months, and we might have already seen his final outing in a Cleveland uniform since he is a free agent this winter.

It counted as something of a surprise to see Bieber even still with the Guardians on Opening Day, given how it was widely assumed that the right-hander would be traded in advance of his walk year.  The Guards have routinely traded star players within 12-18 months of free agency since the organization is rarely (Jose Ramirez notwithstanding) willing to pay the money necessary to sign such prominent names to contract extensions.  As frustrating as this process has been for Cleveland fans, the front office’s track record in these trades has been pretty successful, and some of the players gained in those deals have helped the Guardians to remain competitive despite low payrolls.

If it wasn’t for his elbow issue last season, it is quite possible the Guards might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline.  His health status surely impacted his trade value this past winter, as despite reports linking the Angels, Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and Cubs to Bieber’s market, Cleveland wasn’t able to work out a deal with any of these (and undoubtedly many other) interested suitors.  It’s easy to say now in the wake of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery that the Guardians should’ve moved him for whatever half-decent offer they received, though we don’t know what offers were on the table, and naturally the Guards weren’t keen on selling low on such a valuable trade asset.

There’s also the value of what Bieber brought to Cleveland’s own rotation, as the Guardians were hit with a lot of injuries to notable starters in 2023.  The team’s outstanding pitching development pipeline helped cover this problem in impressive fashion with the emergence of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen, and going into this season, the idea of that young trio teaming with Bieber and the returning Triston McKenzie seemed like a promising step in the Guards’ plans to return to contention.  However, Williams started the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow discomfort, and both Ben Lively and Xzavion Curry are also on the IL since a virus set the two pitchers back during Spring Training.

Veteran Carlos Carrasco has already stepped into the rotation in Williams’ place, and the Guardians will now have to hope for a quick recovery from either Lively or Curry with Bieber gone for the season.  Jaime Barria is also a candidate to pick up starts in the short term, or Hunter Gaddis or Tyler Beede could be stretched out from their current relief roles, or used in a piggyback/bulk starter capacity.

A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Bieber became the latest star product of the Cleveland pitching factory when he made his MLB debut in 2018, and then finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  That breakout year led to Bieber winning the Cy during the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 1.63 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.  While the season’s abbreviated nature carries an obvious asterisk, it was just the 13th time in MLB history that a pitcher led the entire league in ERA, wins (eight), and strikeouts (122) in the same year.

Bieber hasn’t since returned to those heights, though he still has a 3.13 ERA in 436 2/3 innings from 2021-24, and he was an All-Star in 2021 and a seventh-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting in 2022.  With this success came increasingly larger paydays throughout Bieber’s arbitration-eligible years, culminating in the arb-avoiding $13.125MM deal he signed for 2024.  A big bounce-back season would’ve therefore set him up quite nicely for a pricey free agent contract in the 2024-25 offseason, especially if he could’ve avoided a qualifying offer via a midseason trade from the Guardians.

As it stands now, Bieber might have to wait quite some time to score a hefty multi-year commitment.  Even if he pitches well after returning partway through the 2025 season, clubs might want to see a larger sample size of good health and good results before guaranteeing a nine-figure salary.  Assuming then that Bieber pitched well and stays healthy throughout 2026, he might then have a safer track record….but teams could then be wary of Bieber’s age, since 2027 would be his age-32 season.

Under the circumstances, there is a chance the Guardians could yet retain Bieber into 2025, as unlikely as this scenario would’ve seemed even a few days ago.  Cleveland might look to extend Bieber through the 2025 campaign or even both the 2025-26 seasons, on a low salary for 2025 and then the rest of the money backloaded into 2026.  We’ve seen such contractual models used for other pitchers recovering from lengthy injury rehabs, most recently Brandon Woodruff’s two-year, $17.5MM deal to re-sign with the Brewers less than two months ago.  If Bieber and the Guards had interest in such an arrangement, Bieber could complete his entire rehab in a familiar environment, and the Guardians could still get some benefit from having Bieber for part of 2025 and perhaps 2026.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo

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The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.

Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.

Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.

As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.

Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.

More news from around the NL and AL Central…

  • Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.
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