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Cubs Claim Wade Miley Off Waivers From Reds

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Nov. 7: The Cubs have announced that they have officially picked up Miley’s option, securing his services for the 2022 campaign.

Nov. 5: The Cubs announced Friday that they’ve claimed left-hander Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall said just two days ago the the team needed to “align our payroll to our resources,” and the surprising decision to waive Miley, who has an eminently reasonable $10MM club option for the 2022 season, further foreshadows the team’s direction this offseason.

Wade Miley | Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

By placing Miley on waivers rather than declining his option, the Reds spared themselves a $1MM buyout (while also strengthening a division-rival club’s rotation). Given the fact that Miley was claimed at that $10MM price point, it stands to reason that the Reds could have exercised the option and found a trade partner later in the offseason.

Krall tells reporters that he explored the market for Miley over the past couple of weeks and found no interest (Twitter link via the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale). That said, we saw last offseason that Brad Hand went unclaimed on waivers at $10MM, only to eventually land a $10.5MM guarantee in free agency. It’s certainly plausible (if not likely, based on the Cubs claiming Miley with the No. 7 waiver priority) that a team would have eventually shown interest once the option was exercised. However, it seems the ownership wanted no part of either paying the buyout on the option, paying down any of Miley’s would-be salary, or simply being “stuck” with a $10MM left-hander who pitched 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball in 2021.

It’s the second straight season that the Reds are signaling a clear intention to reduce payroll. The Reds’ $126MM Opening Day mark in 2019 took the team to a new franchise-record, and ownership committed to an even larger sum in advance of the 2020 season, when the Reds would’ve had a payroll north of $150MM were it not for the Covid-19 shutdown and the eventual prorating of salaries.

Last offseason was punctuated by a series of Reds moves designed to reduce expenditures, most notably dumping Raisel Iglesias’ salary on the Angels and non-tendering both Archie Bradley and Curt Casali. The Reds spoke of “reallocating” those resources at the time of those moves but largely sat out the free-agent market despite needs at shortstop and (due to the Iglesias/Bradley decisions) in the bullpen. The early-offseason decisions to waive Miley and trade catcher Tucker Barnhart (who had a club option of his own) pair with Krall’s comments to date to portend a rough winter for Reds fans.

With Miley now out of the rotation in Cincinnati, starting roles will fall to Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Vladimir Gutierrez. Krall listed lefty Reiver Sanmartin and prospects Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene as candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic), at least indirectly suggests the team will first look inward to replace Miley’s innings. Of course, given the mounting context associated with these moves, it stands to reason that any of Gray, Castillo or Mahle could be moved this offseason.

As for the Cubs, the sudden acquisition of Miley no doubt qualifies as a highly unexpected but extremely welcome surprise to begin their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has made no secret that the team will seek out veteran innings this winter, and Miley provides just that in bulk — at a highly affordable rate. While the lefty’s career looked to be on the downswing back in 2016-17, he’s enjoyed a stark turnaround over the past several seasons, culminating in a brilliant 2021 showing.

Since signing a minor league deal with the Brewers in 2018, Miley has amassed 425 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball with three different clubs. He carries a below-average 18% strikeout rate in that time but a solid 8% walk rate and a well above-average 50.2% ground-ball rate. This past season was his best since way back in 2012. Miley’s 163 frames ranked 37th among the 909 players who pitched in the Majors this season, and that 3.37 ERA ranked 18th among qualified hurlers. His 49.8% ground-ball rate, meanwhile, ranked 10th.

The Cubs lacked any real form of certainty beyond Kyle Hendricks and, to a lesser extent, Alec Mills in next year’s rotation. Miley joins Hendricks as veteran anchor pair with the less-established Mills and younger arms like Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson and Brailyn Marquez. It’s quite likely that Hoyer & Co. will remain in the market for additional rotation help this winter, but securing Miley this early on affords both cost certainty and the luxury to perhaps pursue a younger free agent with a bit of upside.

Reds Extend Qualifying Offer To Nick Castellanos

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The Reds have unsurprisingly extended a qualifying offer to free agent outfield Nick Castellanos. Given that Castellanos just recently chose to opt out of the final two years and $34MM remaining on his contract, it should be a foregone conclusion that Castellanos will reject the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer and enter free agency.

The sum total of the last couple days of decisions should lead to an interesting offseason saga for Castellanos. The last time he was a free agent, it required patience for the slugger to ultimately land a uniquely structured long-term deal with the Reds. The 29-year-old ultimately only spent two years with the Reds, the latter of which produced an All-Star campaign. Still, this time around, Castellanos will be entering his age-30 season, he has a qualifying offer attached, and the CBA is set to expire in December. The stars say it will be quite some time until Castellanos knows what uniform he will don in 2022.

At the base of it all, however, is a consistent right-handed power hitter coming off a .309/.362/.576 season with 34 home runs and 100 runs driven in. The gaudy offensive numbers amounted to a 3.3 rWAR season, the most robust of Castellanos’ career. He put up 4.2 WAR by Fangraphs’ measure, which was also a career high. In short, the bat plays.

Counterpoint: Castellanos continues to put up suspect defensive numbers. His glovework in right field merited -7 defensive runs saved and -1.5 UZR, numbers that are supported by the eye test and a longstanding reputation as a subpar defender. Now, the expectation is that there will be a universal designated hitter next season, and if that comes to pass, there should be a robust market for Castellanos. Until that’s put in ink, however, his defensive deficiencies may curtail the bidding for his services.

Justin Wilson Exercises 2022 Player Option

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The Reds announced this afternoon that southpaw Justin Wilson has exercised a player option to return to Cincinnati in 2022. He’ll lock in a $2.3MM salary.

Wilson signed a fairly complex deal with the Yankees last offseason. Guaranteed a $2.85MM salary for 2021, Wilson could either opt-in to next year’s $2.3MM salary or decline the option. Doing so would’ve forced the team to decide whether to exercise a $7.15MM option or buy him out for $1.15MM.

There’s no chance the Reds — who acquired Wilson alongside Luis Cessa in a midseason deal — would’ve exercised their end of the pact. Not only has Cincinnati signaled a clear desire to shed payroll, Wilson is coming off the worst season of his career. The veteran southpaw hadn’t posted an ERA higher than 3.66 during any year from 2017-20, but that mark spiked to 5.29 as Wilson’s swing-and-miss plummeted. After consistently punching out close to or more than 30% of opposing hitters over the past half-decade, he fanned just 19.5% of batters faced this past season and generated whiffs on a tiny 8.6% of his offerings.

To his credit, Wilson did post a 2.81 ERA in sixteen frames with Cincinnati after the trade. That’s obviously far better than his 7.50 mark in pinstripes, but his peripherals were generally unimpressive with both clubs. The 34-year-old will try to right the ship and again cement himself as a trustworthy high-leverage arm in a return run at Great American Ball Park.

Nick Castellanos To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos has exercised the opt-out clause in his contract and will reenter the free agent market, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Scott Boras client had two years and $34MM remaining on his contract but will seek a lengthier contract (and a heftier annual value) on the open market. The Reds can, and surely will, extend an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Castellanos — which he’s a lock to reject.

Nick Castellanos | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Castellanos, 30 in March, has been a near-lock to opt out of this contract for months now. While he decided to forgo the first opt-out provision in his deal last winter after a slumping through the pandemic-shortened season’s final weeks, he’s been one of the best hitters in the National League throughout the 2021 season. Had the microfracture in his wrist suffered back in late July proven to sideline him for a longer period or weigh down his production in the final two months, perhaps it’d have been another story, but Castellanos finished the season on a blistering tear at the plate.

On the whole, Castellanos batted .309/.362/.576 this season, complementing a career-high 34 home runs with 38 doubles and a triple en route to a stout 140 wRC+ on the season. That includes a .294/.335/.606 slash and 14 round-trippers in his final 176 plate appearances, which surely allayed any concern that the July wrist injury would linger and impact his production at the dish.

On the defensive end of the equation, Castellanos once again had his share of struggles. Virtually any defensive metric will paint him as below average in right field, and that’s been an issue for him dating back to his days as a third baseman in Detroit. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both pegged Castellanos at -7 in 2021 — which is actually an improvement over recent seasons — and he checked in with a -1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Some may be surprised to see that Castellanos actually has above-average sprint speed (65th percentile among MLB position players), but Statcast also puts him in just the seventh percentile in terms of his outfield jumps.

Overall, the lack of defensive value shouldn’t matter too much. Castellanos has been a consistently above-average hitter since a breakout 2016 campaign with the Tigers, and he enjoyed the best season of his career this past season. With the widely expected advent of the designated hitter in the National League, it’s possible that he’ll be more valuable than ever before in 2022. Full-time (or even semi-regular) DH work was never an option for Castellanos in Detroit thanks to the presence of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and he’s spent his two and a half seasons away from the Motor City in the National League. Even if he doesn’t immediately slide into full-time DH territory, Castellanos at the very least could see fewer innings in the outfield than he has in the past.

While it’s likely that Castellanos’ mind has been made up on this matter for some time, last night’s comments from Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall surely didn’t create any second thoughts. Krall didn’t outright say that the Reds are going to further slash payroll, but that was the overwhelmingly clear implication as the GM voiced a need to “align our payroll with our resources” and stressed the importance of “scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”

The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ $9.125MM salary on the Angels last offseason and surprisingly non-tendered Archie Bradley just three months after trading for him. Krall’s Wednesday comments — and, to a lesser extent, yesterday’s trade of stalwart catcher Tucker Barnhart — suggest that there’s more of the same in store this winter. In fairness to the Reds, they have a ready-made, offensively superior 2022 option at catcher in Tyler Stephenson, and Barnhart’s salary was steeper than most any team would pay for a backup catcher. How the Reds handle their $10MM club option on southpaw Wade Miley will be more telling.

Suffice it to say, it seems difficult to imagine the Reds pushing to re-sign Castellanos to a new contract that figures to include both a raise on his annual value and at least double the years he previously had remaining. Castellanos is arguably (although not definitively) the best hitter on the free-agent market this winter, and if the designated hitter indeed comes to the National League, he’ll have a vast market of teams bidding on his services. A contract of at least four years in length seems certain, and it’s quite possible that even with a qualifying offer in tow, bidding could push into the five-year range.

GM Nick Krall: Reds “Must Align Our Payroll To Our Resources”

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Less than 16 hours after the last out of the World Series, the Reds and Tigers got a quick start to their offseason by swinging a trade that sent catcher Tucker Barnhart to Detroit for infield prospect Nick Quintana.  It was “a very difficult decision” for Reds GM Nick Krall, yet Barnhart’s $7.5MM club option for 2022 proved to be a major factor in determining the end of Barnhart’s long tenure in Cincinnati.

“Having been drafted and developed by the Reds, our entire organization has a connection to [Barnhart], and our fans love him,” Krall told reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer.  “But going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”

These words surely won’t be welcomed by Reds fans, and yet Krall’s statement merely vocalizes what has been pretty apparent for the last year-plus — the Reds are cutting back on their spending.  Last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias and non-tender of Archie Bradley were the early signs that the Reds’ payroll increases in 2018 and 2019 hit their peak with the 2020 season, as the team made the postseason but quickly bowed out in the wild card round.

There was some baseball logic to the Barnhart trade, however, as the Reds do have a ready-made catching replacement in Tyler Stephenson, who has hit well in 422 MLB plate appearances and looks deserving of a larger role.  With a quality younger (and cheaper) player waiting in the wings, retaining Barnhart may have been less crucial than committing his $7.5MM to other roster needs.  “I think it’s something that this move did not make sense from where we were with payroll.  We had to make sure we made the adjustment,” Krall said.

This doesn’t mean that the Reds will be going into fire sale mode, the GM noted.  “It’s going to be more of a wait-and-see, but I don’t think we’re not going to sign players on the free-agent market,” Krall said.  What isn’t yet clear is just what Cincinnati’s payroll will look like in 2022.  As per Roster Resource, the Reds have just under $128MM on the books for next season, a notable step down from the record $149MM they were prepared to spend in 2020 before the pandemic led to prorated salaries.

It doesn’t seem as though the Reds will spend much beyond that $128MM mark, which is a concern given the number of areas that have to be addressed.  Standing pat isn’t really an option for team with this many needs, and it could be that the Reds might try to unload another of their current higher-priced players in order to either free up more money, or perhaps to take on another pricier player that better fits what Cincinnati needs on the roster.

Tigers Acquire Tucker Barnhart From Reds

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The Tigers have a new catcher, announcing a deal this afternoon to acquire veteran Tucker Barnhart from the Reds. Infield prospect Nick Quintana is headed back to Cincinnati in return.

Barnhart had been a career-long member of the Reds, who selected him in the 2009 draft. The switch-hitting backstop made his MLB debut in 2014 and has served as Cincinnati’s primary catcher for much of the past seven seasons. Barnhart has established himself as a capable backstop on both sides of the ball, combining nearly league average offense for the position with well-regarded defense.

The 2021 season was generally par for the course for Barnhart, who hit .247/.317/.368 with seven homers over 388 plate appearances. That’s right in line with his career offensive marks, with his 81 wRC+ a few points shy of the leaguewide mark (89) for catchers. Barhnart’s greater value lies on the other side of the ball. Generally well-regarded as a game manager, he’s also posted above-average pitch framing metrics over the past few seasons after rating poorly in that regard early in his career. He’s also done well at controlling the running game, cutting down a strong 32.1% of base-stealers over the course of his career — although his 28.3% rate this past season was closer to average.

That kind of steady but unspectacular production on both sides of the ball holds value, but the Reds have looked likely to move on from Barnhart this winter for quite some time. 25-year-old backstop Tyler Stephenson hit .286/.366/.431 over 402 trips to the plate in 2021, and it’s apparent the Reds would like to give Stephenson everyday run. Barnhart remains controllable next season via a $7.75MM club option, but that seemed a bit higher than the Reds would be willing to pay for a #2 backstop. It stands to reason Cincinnati will look for a cheaper veteran option to complement Stephenson this winter.

Detroit, on the other hand, didn’t enter the offseason with an obvious answer behind the plate. Tigers’ general manager Al Avila acknowledged as much last month, and the front office struck on the first day of the offseason to address that need. The Tigers will certainly exercise that option, and he now looks likely to receive the bulk of playing time behind the plate in 2022. Dustin Garneau, Grayson Greiner, Eric Haase and Jake Rogers (when he returns from September Tommy John surgery) are also on hand as potential depth options, although it’s likely at least one of that group gets bumped from the roster now that Barnhart is in the fold.

Exercising Barnhart’s option will bring Detroit’s payroll up to around $94MM, including arbitration projections, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already north of the club’s season-opening mark in 2021 but nowhere near the franchise record levels of spending. Avila and CEO Christopher Ilitch have already suggested the club would expand payroll this winter, and the Barnhart acquisition shouldn’t have much of an effect on Detroit’s pursuit of further upgrades around the diamond. The Tigers are widely expected to look for help at shortstop and in the starting rotation, and they’ve been often speculated upon as a landing spot for one of the top free agent shortstops hitting the market.

In exchange for parting ways with their longtime catcher, the Reds will pick up a 24-year-old third base prospect. The Tigers selected Quintana in the second round of the 2019 draft. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs called him a potential everyday third baseman over the 2020-21 offseason, but he’s since stumbled to a .196/.329/.346 line over 347 plate appearances in Low-A. The Reds will take a shot on a hopeful turnaround with a change of scenery, but the seemingly light return suggests that Cincinnati was likely to decline Barnhart’s option within the next few days had they not found a trade partner.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a trade. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported the deal was completed and Quintana’s inclusion.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Hire Joe Mather As Hitting Coach

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The Diamondbacks have filled a key spot on Torey Lovullo’s staff, announcing the hiring of Joe Mather as hitting coach. The 39-year-old has spent the past two seasons as the assistant hitting coach of the Reds.

A former outfielder, Mather appeared in 229 MLB games between 2008-12. He played in the minors and independent ball through 2014 before transitioning into coaching. Mather’s first instructional work began with the D-Backs, as he coached and managed in Arizona’s minor league system up through 2019 before joining David Bell’s staff in Cincinnati.

Mather’s past stint with the D-Backs makes him a known commodity for Lovullo and the Snakes’ front office, as well as a handful of players now on the big league roster. He’ll be tasked with trying to coax improvements out of a D-Backs lineup that figures to incorporate plenty of younger players on the heels of an NL-worst 52-110 season.

Lovullo is returning for his sixth season leading the Arizona dugout, but much of his coaching staff remains unsettled. The D-Backs are still in the process of finding a new bench coach and pitching coach to replace Luis Urueta and Matt Herges, respectively.

Reds Extend Pitching Coach Derek Johnson

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The Reds announced this afternoon that they’ve given pitching coach Derek Johnson the additional title of director of pitching. He’ll remain the big league pitching coach as well as assuming this additional responsibility, which the team announced as “the development and communication of pitching philosophy/initiatives throughout the entire organization.” Previous director of pitching Kyle Boddy left the Reds last month.

Along with the new title, Johnson earned a contract extension, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Johnson had already been under contract through the end of next season, but he’s now slated to be in Cincinnati beyond 2022. Krall didn’t specify the new contract length.

“We moved some things forward over the last couple of years. But at the end of the day, I felt D.J. was the best person to be in this role because I feel he’s one of the best pitching minds in baseball, if not the best,” Krall said (via Sheldon). “I think that from being able to drive the content and the curriculum from the Major League staff, and then working down through, was the best way to approach it. I thought he would be the best person to set it up to have success in the Minor Leagues as well.”

Johnson has served as Cincinnati’s pitching coach for the past three years, making the jump from the division-rival Brewers during the 2018-19 offseason. The Reds have done fairly well in that department during Johnson’s tenure, posting a 4.24 ERA that ranks twelfth leaguewide in spite of one of the league’s most hitter-friendly home ballparks. Cincinnati ranked 20th in ERA with a 4.41 mark this past season, although they finished middle-of-the-pack in SIERA (4.17) and strikeout/walk rate differential (14.6 percentage points).

Of course, Krall and his staff are making the decision to keep Johnson around (with more responsibility) based on far more than bottom-line results. Reds’ brass is obviously happy with Johnson’s communication skills in working with pitchers, and his new role should give him more of an impact on the club’s minor league pipeline. That could be particularly useful as a couple of the team’s top young arms approach big league readiness. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are each fairly recent top ten draftees and highly-regarded prospects. Both pitchers reached Triple-A Louisville at the end of this past season and could be in the majors relatively early in 2022.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds were competitive in 2021 but ultimately came up short of a Wild Card berth. Cincinnati now faces the potential departure of one of their middle-of-the-order hitters, which would leave general manager Nick Krall needing to find some other way to bolster the offense while restructuring a bullpen that was among the league’s worst in 2021. There’s a strong core already in place, but the pressure to supplement it effectively continues to build as the club’s window of contractual control over some key players gets smaller.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $57MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $38MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $35MM through 2024 (includes buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $10.667MM through 2022 (no buyout on 2023 club option)
  • Shogo Akiyama, CF: $8MM through 2022

Players With Contractual Options

  • Nick Castellanos, RF: Can opt out of contract’s remaining two years and $34MM
  • Wade Miley: LHP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $2.3MM player option; if Wilson declines, Cincinnati holds a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout)

Total 2022 commitments (assuming Castellanos opts out and Wilson exercises player option): $90.467MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Garrett

Free Agents

The Reds hung around the postseason picture all season, even looking like Wild Card favorites into September. The Cardinals streaked to the National League’s final postseason spot near the end of the year, though, leaving the Reds on the outside looking in for the seventh time in the past eight years.

Cincinnati already made one key decision, signing manager David Bell to a two-year contract extension last month. Bell has been at the helm for three seasons of generally average play, but the front office was evidently pleased enough with his locker room presence and decision-making to give him some security moving forward.

With Bell’s status now certain, Krall and his staff can turn their full focus towards the roster. Nick Castellanos is all but certain to exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency, where he’d be a strong candidate to land a $100+MM deal. Going to nine figures wouldn’t be totally unprecedented for the Reds, but it would require a sharp turnaround from their most recent spending habits.

The Reds were among the most active teams in cutting costs last winter on the heels of a season with no gate revenue. Cincinnati traded away one of the game’s best relievers, Raisel Iglesias, in a move that amounted to little more than a salary dump. They sat out the offseason shortstop market and entered the year running an ill-advised experiment with Eugenio Suárez at short. And there were rumblings last winter about the Reds considering moving some of their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers, although there’s no indication such talks ever got particularly far.

It seems reasonable to expect owner Bob Castellini to greenlight more spending this offseason after a comparatively normal campaign. There’s a line between not further slashing payroll and winning the bidding on a top free agent, though. Even if Castellini signs off on a payroll near 2019’s franchise-record $149MM level — a significant uptick over this past season’s $132MM mark — retaining Castellanos while adequately addressing the roster’s other deficiencies could be a challenge.

Assuming Justin Wilson exercises his player option and Castellanos opts out, the Reds will enter the winter with a little more than $90MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Exercising Wade Miley’s $10MM club option would push that total near nine figures. Cincinnati could buy Miley out and reallocate that money, but that’d require parting ways with a pitcher who quietly tossed 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball this past season despite playing his home games in one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly environments.

Exercising Miley’s option and then putting him on the trade market could be something of a middle ground — allowing the front office to recoup some talent without taking on additional salary. Even in that instance, the Reds would be moving on from a highly affordable deal for a key member of the rotation, though. The most likely outcome still seems to be Cincinnati exercising the option and bringing Miley back, but that’d seem to further decrease the chances of a Castellanos return.

The Reds also have to make a $7MM decision on longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart. The 30-year-old is a career-long member of the organization who’s a generally capable backstop, but rookie Tyler Stephenson already looks like one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. It seems likely they’ll pay Barnhart a $500K buyout instead of exercising his $7.5MM club option. That’d give Stephenson the primary job, although doing so probably requires bringing in a cheaper veteran backup this offseason.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Jesse Winker has one corner outfield spot locked down after a second consecutive huge season. There’s no longer much doubt that Winker is one of the game’s best hitters, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office kicks around the possibility of an extension. Winker is under control via arbitration for two more seasons. Projected for a solid $6.8MM salary already, he might not feel pressured into considering a below-market extension at this point. Still, there’s little harm for Cincinnati in at least gauging his asking price on a potential deal.

The rest of the outfield would be an open question if Castellanos opts out, as would the potential designated hitter if the position comes to the National League in collective bargaining this winter. None of Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama nor Nick Senzel look like slam-dunk regulars going into 2022. Tyler Naquin probably did enough this season to lock down a spot somewhere alongside Winker, but either of center or right field (with Naquin manning the other position) would be an area of need.

The free agent center field market is barren behind Starling Marte and utilityman Chris Taylor, both of whom might price themselves out of the bidding for Cincinnati. Mark Canha could be a lower-cost alternative to man right, while Jorge Soler offers a broadly similar skillset to Castellanos (strong exit velocities with below-average defense) for cheaper, albeit with much less consistency at the plate. Avisaíl García, Joc Pederson and Kole Calhoun are among the other alternatives who could be available on the open market.

The outfield could be in line for some turnover, but Cincinnati could be content to fill next year’s infield internally. Franchise icon Joey Votto is locked into the middle of the order following an otherworldly second half. Jonathan India should probably win the National League’s Rookie of the Year award after hitting .269/.376/.459 to seize the second base job.

The Suárez shortstop experiment fell flat, but Kyle Farmer quietly stabilized the position with a nice season after taking over in May. A former catcher, Farmer adapted surprisingly well to shortstop and hit a fine .263/.316/.416 over the course of 529 plate appearances. He’s a 31-year-old utilityman who entered the 2021 campaign with a career .242/.297/.370 slash line, so the front office probably wouldn’t be entirely enthused to hand him the job again heading into 2022. They needn’t do that, though, since top prospect José Barrero looks poised to run with the position at some point.

Barrero hasn’t yet done much at the big league level, but he’s coming off a .306/.392/.592 showing in Triple-A. Baseball America slotted him as the top prospect in the Cincinnati farm system midseason, and the 23-year-old is widely expected to be a fixture in the dirt at Great American Ball Park in the not too distant future. Farmer’s quiet stability gives the Reds some leeway to be patient, but he could easily slide back into a utility role if Barrero begins to translate his immense talent into big league productivity.

For the first time in five years, third base looks like a question mark for Cincinnati. Not only did Suárez struggle defensively in his early-season move to shortstop, his offensive production cratered. Suárez hit 31 home runs, but it came with his worst walk rate since 2016 (9.8%) and a meager .198 batting average. While he still has the potential to do damage in any given at-bat, Suárez’s offensive consistency has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, and the Reds began to curtail his playing time later in the year.

There’s a case for the Reds to look for an upgrade at third base, but that’d require pouring even more resources into a position where the club already has Suárez and Mike Moustakas on significant contracts. Moustakas will be looking for a bounceback season of his own after struggling to a career-worst .208/.282/.372 showing while being obviously hampered by a foot injury. It’s not an enviable position to be in, but the Reds seem likely to run things back with Suárez and Moustakas in hopes that at least one can regain some of his prior form. The front office certainly didn’t envision a Suárez/Moustakas platoon when signing those players to long-term deals, but that might be the best option for Bell to get production from that position moving forward.

The front office might also feel their work in the rotation is already done, particularly if they exercise Miley’s option. Luis Castillo rebounded from an awful first two months to post a characteristically strong second half. Sonny Gray had his third consecutive solid season after coming over from the Yankees during the 2018-19 offseason. Tyler Mahle is one of the better young pitchers around the league, and Miley’s coming off a very good season as mentioned.

The Reds could probably do better than Vladimir Gutierrez in the final spot, but top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are on the doorstep of the big leagues and could be factors themselves next year. Cincinnati might look to add a low-cost innings eating type at the back end — especially if Miley ends up elsewhere — but the core of a potential playoff rotation is already in place.

A trade involving Gray or Castillo can’t be completely ruled out, since the club reportedly fielded offers on both players last offseason. Gray will make just under $11MM next season, while Castillo is projected for a $7.6MM arbitration salary. Both pitchers are under team control through 2023.

Cincinnati is looking to compete immediately, making a Gray or Castillo deal still seem unlikely. Krall downplayed the importance of trade talks involving their top pitchers last winter, characterizing those discussions as a matter of due diligence. More conversations of that nature will surely take place in the coming months, but there’s no pressing need for the Reds to force a trade involving either player.

The biggest priority for the Reds this offseason — aside from retaining or replacing Castellanos — has to be revamping the bullpen. Reds’ relievers were among the worst in the league at preventing runs last season, largely due to walk and home run issues. There’s a strong case, in fact, that the bullpen was the biggest reason they missed the playoffs.

Even after adjusting for park effects, the Reds outhit the Cardinals in 2021. The two teams’ respective rotation ERA’s (4.01 for St. Louis, 4.03 for Cincinnati) were almost identical. The biggest separator between the Reds and the NL’s final playoff team was a gap of more than a full run in ERA (3.97 versus 4.99) from the relief corps.

Making matters worse, Cincinnati’s best reliever, Tejay Antone, will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Michael Lorenzen is set to hit free agency, as is deadline pickup Mychal Givens. The Reds can take a broad approach to talent acquisition, scouring the waiver wire and non-tender markets for relievers they like. But it’d be a surprise if they didn’t also add at least one obvious upgrade to the late innings mix.

To their credit, Cincinnati already did some of the bullpen heavy lifting at the trade deadline, picking up Luis Cessa and Wilson from the Yankees. They’re both likely to return, joining Art Warren and Lucas Sims as the top internal options. That still leaves some high-leverage innings to be shouldered though.

Ironically enough, Iglesias is easily the top free agent reliever available. Signing him is likely to cost a hefty three-plus year salary and potentially a draft choice, should the Angels make him a qualifying offer. It’d be a shock to see the Reds meet that asking price just twelve months after trading him away. Instead, they’ll look at least a tier down.

Kendall Graveman and Kenley Jansen might still prove too pricey for the Reds’ liking. The third tier of relievers — which includes players like Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris and Jeurys Familia — could still offer some much-needed help. If Cincinnati looks for a southpaw to pair with Wilson, Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and old friend Brooks Raley should be available without coming at prohibitive costs. The Reds could look for creative ways to bring in a controllable reliever via trade as well, just as they did this summer with the Cessa pickup.

Bullpens are often highly volatile, and it’s not hard to envision the Reds constructing a passable relief corps by hitting on just one or two offseason additions. But that’ll require identifying a few key targets from a group of pitchers that (Iglesias and Graveman aside) all come with their own question marks. Krall and his staff have surely already begun to pore over the possibilities, but any bullpen restructuring requires both an adept talent acquisition process and some element of luck.

If Castellanos leaves, the front office will need to figure out how to replace most of his middle-of-the-order production at a lower cost. They might very well have to bank on a repeat of last season’s marvelous production from Votto and a bounceback from either of Suárez or Moustakas. And they’ll no doubt have to hit on an addition or two to the late innings to fix a bullpen that proved untenable in 2021.

None of that is impossible, and the Reds’ rotation and handful of high-end position players gives them a contending core around which to build. There’s not much margin for error for Krall and his group this winter, though, and a bad start to next season would intensify rumors about potential trades involving Gray, Castillo and Winker, each of whom has a dwindling window of remaining team control.

The Reds have a real chance to be competitive in 2022, but they’re also in some danger of never realizing the full potential of this central group of players. How well they handle the potential loss of Castellanos and their hit rate on bullpen upgrades this offseason might ultimately determine whether this group can ever make a deep postseason run.

Delino DeShields Jr. Elects Free Agency

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Reds outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. has refused an outright assignment and become a free agent, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via tweet).

The speedy outfielder bounced around a few organizations this year after signing with the Rangers on a minor league deal. Owing to a robust walk rate and strong base stealing numbers in their Triple-A affiliate, Texas found a trade partner in Boston to take in DeShields as outfield depth and a potential playoff weapon. Cincinnati found similar appeal in DeShields and plucked him from the Red Sox in an early August deal for cash.

DeShields’ minors production included solid numbers, including 21 stolen bases (in 24 tries) and a .750 OPS. With the Reds, however, he saw big league action for the first time in 2021 and had a nice showing in sample size of 25 games, producing a .255/.375/.426 slash (105 OPS+) with almost as many walks as strikeouts.

Despite solid production down the stretch, the Reds likely didn’t view DeShields as an indispensable part of their future. The 29-year-old could have been retained via arbitration but will instead head to the open market in search of more steady Major League work. With plenty to like about DeShields’ profile, there are plenty of teams, including the Reds themselves, who may come knocking in the offseason to fortify their outfield ranks.

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