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Reds Select Nick Lodolo, Designate Riley O’Brien For Assignment

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The Reds formally announced top pitching prospect Nick Lodolo’s widely expected promotion to the big leagues yesterday, and they’ve now officially added him to the Major League roster by selecting his contract from Triple-A Louisville. Right-hander Riley O’Brien was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move, and Cincinnati optioned righty Daniel Duarte to Louisville to open a spot on the active 28-man roster.

The 27-year-old O’Brien will now be traded or placed on outright waivers within a week’s time. An eighth-round pick by the Rays back in 2017, O’Brien came to the Reds in a 2020 trade that sent southpaw Cody Reed to Tampa Bay. He made his big league debut in 2021 but pitched just 1 1/3 innings in his lone start before being sent back to Louisville, where he otherwise spent the entirety of his 2021 season.

In 112 2/3 innings with Louisville last season, O’Brien pitched to a 4.55 ERA with generally similar marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics. He fanned a solid 24.7% of his Triple-A opponents and induced grounders at a similarly sound 45% clip, but O’Brien walked 11.2% of his opponents and plunked 10 more. O’Brien also walked three of the nine big league hitters he faced last year and allowed a pair of homers, illustrating that he’ll need to refine his command if he’s to find success at the big league level.

That said, O’Brien only turned 27 a couple months ago and has a pair of minor league option years remaining (2022 included). He’s shown an ability to miss bats in the minors and, as Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote when ranking him 29th among Cincinnati prospects, he’s shown three pitches that have all, at times, looked like potential plus offerings: his fastball, curveball and changeup. A club with some 40-man flexibility and a need for pitching depth could certainly take him on as a project.

As covered in greater detail yesterday, Lodolo will join fellow top prospect Hunter Greene in a youthful and high-upside Cincinnati rotation. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Lodolo is widely considered to be among the sport’s 100 best prospects and will give Reds fans a pair of young hurlers on which to dream.

Lodolo, Greene, 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India and promising young backstop Tyler Stephenson could well be integral parts of the Reds’ core moving forward, and the organization undoubtedly still has high hopes for former No. 2 overall draft pick Nick Senzel, whose career to date has been continually derailed by injuries. Cincinnati surely still hopes to contend in 2022, but in order to do so they’ll need big performances from several young players, as the club also subtracted a number of productive veterans over the winter while cutting payroll (e.g. Jesse Winker, Sonny Gray, Wade Miley).

Reds To Promote Nick Lodolo

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Top Reds pitching prospect Nick Lodolo will make his Major League debut tomorrow, the team announced. Lodolo, the No. 7 overall pick in 2019, will start tomorrow’s game against the Guardians and join fellow top prospect Hunter Greene in the rotation. Greene impressed with seven punchouts and a barrage of triple-digit heaters in his own MLB debut this past weekend. Lodolo has not yet been selected to the 40-man roster, so Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move before he is formally promoted to the big leagues.

Nick Lodolo | Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s been expected since the season opened that Lodolo would take the mound this week and make his big league debut, but it’s nevertheless notable that Cincinnati has now made it official and set the stage for a forthcoming 40-man move to add the prized young lefty to the roster. Lodolo split the 2021 season between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, pitching to a combined 2.31 ERA with an eye-popping 38.8% strikeout rate, just a 5.5% walk rate and a 54.3% ground-ball rate.

Impressive as those numbers were, Lodolo also missed time last year with blister troubles and, far more troublingly, with a shoulder strain that ended his season in August. He looked plenty sharp this spring, tossing 11 1/3 innings of 2.38 ERA ball with a 12-to-2 K/BB ratio, so it certainly looks as though he’s put the shoulder troubles behind him for now. Still, those injuries limited Lodolo to just 50 2/3 innings in 2021, and he of course didn’t pitch at all in 2020, when there was no minor league season.

The largest workload Lodolo has ever recorded is the combined 121 1/3 innings he pitched between his junior season at Texas Christian University and the Reds’ lower minor league levels in 2019, when he was drafted. It stands to reason that Cincinnati will be relatively careful when it comes to managing his innings.

Even if the Reds limit his innings on the season as a whole or on a start-by-start basis, there’s good reason to be excited about the lefty’s arrival on the scene. As one would expect for a pitcher with that lofty draft stock and those scintillating 2021 numbers, Lodolo is widely regarded as one of baseball’s most promising young pitchers. He ranked as a top-100 prospect at Baseball America (No. 32), MLB.com (No. 42), Baseball Prospectus (No. 42), FanGraphs (No. 52) and ESPN (No. 79).

There’s a fairly wide split as to just how highly Lodolo ought to be regarded, though most scouting reports on him will characterize him as a likely mid-rotation arm. Still, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote that Lodolo was one of the “more divisive” players discussed with evaluators when writing their top prospect rankings, noting that while analytics-driven evaluations love his changeup, scouts question it and wonder why he threw it so little (9%) if it’s truly one of his best offerings.

FanGraphs touts Lodolo for having three plus pitches, whereas Baseball America opines that the slider is Lodolo’s only plus offering. The Athletic’s Keith Law omitted Lodolo from his Top 100 altogether, but ranked him fifth in the Cincinnati system while opining on the lack of a third plus pitch and likening Lodolo’s slider and arm slot to that of Andrew Miller.

Split camps are nothing new when it comes to prospect evaluation, and there’s certainly still consensus that Lodolo is a big league talent who’ll play a role with the Reds for years to come. Data-driven models and traditional scouting may not agree on the lefty’s ceiling, but Lodolo will have the opportunity to start proving skeptics wrong beginning tomorrow. He’ll bring a mid-90s heater, a quality sweeping slider and that divisive changeup with him to Great American Ball Park, and there’s a clear long-term opportunity in the rotation now that Cincinnati has traded Sonny Gray and dropped Wade Miley via waivers.

If Lodolo is in the big leagues for good, there’s still enough time on the calendar for him to log a full year of service time — regardless of his finish in end-of-year awards voting. He’d be eligible for arbitration after the 2024 season and would be controlled through the 2027 campaign via arbitration. Of course, future optional assignments could impact that timeline, but Lodolo’s fate is largely in his own hands now that he’s getting his first big league look at a time when the rotation has such ample opportunity.

Reds Injury Notes: Sims, Solano, Castillo, Minor

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  • Reds manager David Bell provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon) with several updates on injured players over the last two days.  Lucas Sims is on pace to head to Triple-A this week after throwing a live BP session at the team’s extended Spring Training camp, and Bell set April 20 or 22 as the target dates for Sims’ likely return.  Donovan Solano is out with a left hamstring injury, but Boone said Solano has been doing some running drills and even took some swings during some simulated game sessions.
  • Mike Minor and Luis Castillo both began the season on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and while Castillo was initially thought to have the quicker return of the two, Minor has now seemingly moved ahead after throwing a 35-pitch simulated game on Friday.  Minor could now be ready for Triple-A work or at least another sim game, while Castillo still has to get a second bullpen session under his belt.  In terms of projections, the Reds are now aiming for Castillo to be back by late April, while Minor could make his debut closer to the middle of the month.

Reds Release Shogo Akiyama; Expected To Select Drury, Garcia, Farmer

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The Reds announced this afternoon they’ve released outfielder Shogo Akiyama. It had seemed likely Akiyama would be released when the club informed him over the weekend he wouldn’t break camp on the active roster, as his contract afforded him the right to refuse any minor league assignments.

The move closes the book on a disappointing tenure in Cincinnati. Akiyama signed a three-year, $21MM deal over the 2019-20 offseason. Making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB during the 2020 season was no doubt difficult, as the typical challenges of the new environment were exacerbated by the shortened schedule and pandemic protocols. Nevertheless, the Reds certainly expected better than the .224/.320/.274 line Akiyama posted in 366 plate appearances over the past two years.

Due $8MM in 2022 under the terms of that contract, Akiyama is a lock to clear release waivers. Cincinnati will remain on the hook for that money, minus the league minimum salary if the 33-year-old catches on with another MLB team as a free agent. From the Reds perspective, the release was about reallocating Akiyama’s spot on the active and 40-man rosters.

The Reds don’t have to officially make a call on their Opening Day roster until Thursday, but C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic tweets the club is planning to select three non-roster invitees to the big league club. Infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury, catcher Aramís García and reliever Buck Farmer are all expected to break camp.

It would be the eighth consecutive season with some MLB time for Drury. The right-handed hitting utilityman had a couple decent seasons early in his career with the Diamondbacks but has only eclipsed 90 plate appearances once in the past four years. His last extended run in the majors — 120 games with the 2019 Blue Jays — resulted in only a .218/.262/.380 slash, but Drury was alright in a bench capacity with the Mets last year.

García is expected to join the big league club as the backup to Tyler Stephenson. The 29-year-old backstop has suited up with the Giants and A’s in recent years. Over parts of three big league seasons, he’s a .218/.256/.373 hitter. García owns a more impressive .268/.333/.448 line at Triple-A. He seemingly beat out fellow non-roster invitee Andrew Knapp for the backup catching job. Rosecrans tweets that Knapp has been granted his release after being informed he wouldn’t break camp.

Farmer, meanwhile, has pitched in parts of eight big league seasons. He’d spent his entire career with the Tigers but is now in line for his second MLB team. The right-hander posted a sub-4.00 ERA in both 2019-20, but he’s coming off a difficult 2021 campaign. In 35 1/3 innings, Farmer posted a 6.37 ERA with an elevated 12.3% walk rate. He’ll add some multi-inning relief depth for skipper David Bell, though, in hopes of rediscovering his 2019-20 form.

Akiyama’s release clears one spot on the 40-man roster, and the other two seem likely to come from injured list placements. Righty Justin Dunn is out “months” with a shoulder issue and figures to wind up on the 60-day injured list. Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that infielder Max Schrock will be placed on the 60-day IL as well. The 27-year-old is dealing with a left calf strain.

That’ll set the stage for the Opening Day roster, but the Reds figure to require another 40-man roster spot by the middle of next week. As Jesse Borek of MLB.com writes, Cincinnati is expected to promote top pitching prospect Nick Lodolo to make his major league debut when the team first needs a fifth starter on April 13. The team has yet to make a formal announcement, but Lodolo isn’t expected to be assigned to a minor league affiliate. Assuming that plan comes to fruition, the Reds would have to formally select the southpaw onto the major league roster.

Todd Frazier Retires

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Two-time All-Star Todd Frazier is set to announce his retirement today, he tells Greg Joyce of the New York Post. “(Baseball) has been my love my whole life,” the third baseman said. “It’s very hard to let go. Don’t get me wrong, it’s one of the toughest decisions I’ve ever made in my life. But where I’m at in my career and where I’m at in my life, I think it was the right decision. I think it’s time to be that family figure that I’ve always wanted to be.”

Frazier has appeared in the majors in each of the past 11 seasons. A supplemental first-round pick out of Rutgers by the Reds in 2007, Frazier emerged as one of the sport’s most promising prospects within his first couple pro seasons. He debuted in the big leagues in 2011 and cemented himself at the hot corner in Cincinnati not long thereafter.

Todd Frazier

In 128 games in 2012, Frazier hit a productive .273/.331/.498 en route to a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. After a roughly league average showing the following season, he broke through as one of the better position players in the game. Frazier combined for a .264/.322/.479 showing between 2014-15, averaging 32 home runs per season. He was selected to the Midsummer Classic in both years and won the 2015 Home Run Derby in front of a home crowd in Cincinnati.

The rebuilding Reds moved Frazier to the White Sox as part of a three-team deal with the Dodgers the following winter. He spent a season and a half in Chicago, not quite reaching his peak Cincinnati level but still offering solid production. The Sox moved him to the Yankees midseason in 2017, and he spent the following two years in Queens after signing with the Mets that offseason. Frazier continued to hit at a decent level throughout that run. His batting average and on-base percentage gradually ticked down, but he popped 39 homers during his first two seasons as a Met.

Frazier’s 499 plate appearances in 2019 proved his last extended MLB workload. He signed with the Rangers over the 2019-20 offseason, then ended up back in Flushing when the Mets acquired him at the trade deadline. Frazier struggled down the stretch, though, and New York bought him out that winter. He hooked on with the Pirates last offseason and played in 13 games before being released in March.

That marked an end to Frazier’s time in the big leagues, but it didn’t bring his playing career to a complete conclusion. He was among a handful of respected veterans to represent the U.S. as part of last summer’s Silver Medal-winning team at the Tokyo Olympics.

Frazier wraps up his career with a .241/.318/.445 slash line in a bit under 5,000 MLB plate appearances. That production was seven percentage points better than league average in aggregate, by measure of wRC+, and he had three seasons with a wRC+ north of 115. A well-regarded defender for the bulk of his career, Frazier got plus marks from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. He suited up for six different clubs, combining to hit 218 homers and drive in 640 runs. Each of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs valued his career at around 23-24 wins above replacement, a very fine showing that endeared him to Reds fans in particular. MLBTR congratulates Frazier on an excellent run and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Roster Cuts: Akiyama, Wingenter, Knapp

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The Reds have told Shogo Akiyama that he will not make the Opening Day roster, Reds GM Nick Krall told The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans and other reporters.  The team has also told minor league signings Trey Wingenter and Andrew Knapp that they won’t be breaking camp.

Akiyama’s three-year, $21MM contract gives him the right to decline a minor league assignment, and he already turned down a visit to Triple-A near the end of the 2021 season (he did see some minors action last year as part of a rehab assignment).  If Akiyama does indeed decline to go to Triple-A again, the Reds seem set to designate him for assignment, and in all likelihood eat the $8MM owed to the outfielder for the 2021 season.

After nine seasons as a standout performance for the Saitama Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, Akiyama came to Major League Baseball and hit only .224/.320/.274 over 366 plate appearances in a Cincinnati uniform.  His first season had some flashes of promise, as Akiyama was a finalist for NL Gold Glove Award in left field and he posted a .357 OBP in 183 plate appearances.  However, he started off the 2021 season with a month-long stint on the IL with a hamstring problem and simply never got on track, playing in 88 games and amassing 183 PA as a part-time player.

Akiyama was blunt about his performance when speaking with Rosecrans and other reporters through a translator, saying “with two years, that’s the results that are out there” and “it’s just unfortunate how I don’t have that many memorable moments.”  Of course, Akiyama did come to the majors just before the pandemic altered the world, but he only alluded to those unusual circumstances by saying that “I don’t know what the actual true self with me is….But realistically, I still can play.  I can play hard.  I know I can play.  So I just have to move forward with this situation.”

The contract ended up being an expensive misfire for the Reds, which stands out even more given how the team has been paring back its payroll for much of the last two offseasons, particularly this winter.  There doesn’t seem like any chance that another team would claim Akiyama on DFA waivers and thus absorb his entire $8MM salary, so if a team is interested, it can wait out the waiver period and then sign Akiyama to only a minimum salary, with the Reds covering the rest of the $8MM owed.

Even considering Akiyama’s lack of Major League production, it seems possible that another team might take a flier on him for such a limited cost.  The Padres, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rays, Blue Jays, and Cardinals all had some level of interest in Akiyama when he came over from NPB, so at least one of those former suitors might take a look to see if Akiyama (who turns 34 this month) can break out in a new environment.

Wingenter and Knapp both signed minor league deals just barely before the lockout was implemented.  Wingenter has only pitched two innings this spring due to an elbow injury, and the righty has already told the Reds that he won’t be exercising his opt-out.  Knapp has until Monday to decide whether or not to use his own opt-out, after Aramis Garcia won the competition to be Cincinnati’s backup catcher.

Hunter Greene Makes Reds’ Rotation

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Top pitching prospect Hunter Greene has made the Reds’ Opening Day roster and will pitch out of the rotation to begin the season, manager David Bell announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Hunter Greene

Tyler Mahle will start on Opening Day and be followed by lefty Reiver Sanmartin, righty Vladimir Gutierrez and Greene. Cincinnati has an early off-day that’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation the first time through, and Mahle has already been announced as the starter for their fifth game (which is also their home opener). The Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale adds that whoever is settled upon as the fifth member of the rotation will likely start the sixth game of the season.

Greene, 22, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft. Initially selected as a two-way player, he’s since been shifted solely to the mound and has done little to drop his stock in the years since being drafted. Tommy John surgery wiped out Greene’s 2019 season, but he’s returned with the same triple-digit heater and wicked slider that made him such a coveted player as an amateur. He currently ranks among MLB’s 35 best prospects according to each of Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and The Athletic (where Keith Law is most bullish on him, placing him No. 12 overall).

Greene split the 2021 season between the Reds’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 3.30 ERA with a 31.7% strikeout rate, an 8.9% walk rate and a 43.8% ground-ball rate over the life of 106 1/3 innings. That marked a new career-high in innings pitched for Greene, which comes as little surprise given 2019’s surgery and the lack of a minor league season in 2020. The Reds may yet be cautious with Greene’s workload — both on a per-start basis and with regard to the season as a whole — but he’ll be given the opportunity to grow that innings total at the big league level.

The news on Greene comes just one day after the Pirates drew flak for optioning top infield prospect Oneil Cruz to the minors to begin the season. Situations like this were a focal point for the MLBPA during this offseason’s wave of collective bargaining, as players pushed the league to incentivize front offices to carry their best prospects to begin the season rather than hold them in the minors for a few weeks to secure an additional year of club control. Under the 2021-26 CBA, teams can be awarded draft picks if they carry top prospects to begin the season and those players go on to finish well in awards voting.

It’s eminently possible that Cincinnati might’ve included Greene in the Opening Day rotation even in the absence of those new stipulations, as the offseason trade of Sonny Gray and injuries to Luis Castillo and Mike Minor have thinned out the Reds’ options. Regardless, Greene’s forthcoming debut gives Reds fans plenty to be optimistic for after a frustrating offseason that was more focused on trimming payroll than improving the 2022 roster.

If Greene is in the big leagues for good, he’ll accrue a full year of service time in 2022 and be on track to reach free agency following the 2027 season, when he’d be just 28 years of age. As things stand, he’d be on track to reach arbitration following the 2024 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Acquire Connor Phillips From Mariners To Complete Winker Trade

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The Reds announced they’ve acquired pitching prospect Connor Phillips from the Mariners. He’s the player to be named later in this month’s deal that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to Seattle.

Cincinnati maintained at the time of the deal they’d add a notable prospect as the player to be named later, and they indeed pick up one of the better arms in the Seattle system. Baseball America ranked Phillips 12th among M’s farmhands this winter, writing that the right-hander owns a 94-96 MPH fastball and a plus slider. BA suggests that Phillips’ below-average changeup and inconsistent control figure to make him a reliever in the long run, but he worked as a starting pitcher during his first full professional season.

Phillips, whom the Mariners selected 64th overall out of a Texas junior college in 2020, made 16 starts with Low-A Modesto last year. The 20-year-old tossed 72 innings of 4.75 ERA ball, striking out an excellent 32.3% of opposing hitters but issuing walks at an alarming 13.7% rate. He was bumped up to High-A Everett for his final start of the year, allowing three runs in four innings.

Phillips becomes the latest power arm added to the Cincinnati system as part of their recent sell-off. The Reds also picked up Brandon Williamson in the Winker trade and landed 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty from the Twins in the Sonny Gray deal.

Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported Phillips’ inclusion in the deal shortly before the official announcement.

Luis Castillo, Mike Minor To Begin Season On Injured List

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4:55pm: Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Castillo and Minor will indeed both start the year on the IL.

9:44am: Reds right-hander Luis Castillo is “expected” to begin the season on the injured list after being slowed by some shoulder soreness early in camp, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Meanwhile, manager David Bell told reporters yesterday that Castillo is “quite a bit ahead” of newly acquired left-hander Mike Minor, who is battling shoulder troubles of his own. Bell said the team is set to meet with some of its ailing players today to establish a more concrete rehab plan for each.

News of Castillo’s barking shoulder first surfaced earlier in camp, and it’s worth emphasizing that the team believes he’s healthy now. However, Castillo has been behind schedule in an already truncated Spring Training and has yet to pitch in a Cactus League game. Opening Day is less than two weeks away at this point, and it seems the 29-year-old righty simply won’t have time to sufficiently build up to readiness for the early portion of the season. Placing Castillo on the injured list would set him up to miss multiple turns through the rotation, but he could still be back in the fold for the Reds by mid-to-late April.

The likelihood of a Castillo trade had already plummeted in recent weeks, with general manager Nick Krall publicly stating he didn’t expect to trade Castillo or right-hander Tyler Mahle (who has since been named the team’s Opening Day starter). Now, with some shoulder issues on top of the Reds’ public disinclination toward trading him, it seems all but certain that Castillo remain a Red for at least the early portion of the season. Should the team struggle, of course, his name will be featured prominently in summer trade rumblings once again.

As for Minor, it’s not yet clear just how much time he’ll be expected to miss. Bell suggested that Minor is dealing with soreness that the team does not believe to be overly concerning, but added that the veteran lefty’s shoulder is going to “take some more time.”

Acquired in a surprising swap that sent reliever Amir Garrett to the Royals and saw the Reds take on about $7MM in salary — the first time this winter that Cincinnati had added, rather than subtracted, from the payroll — Minor joined his new club in hopes of rebounding from a rough 2020-21 showing.

The 34-year-old Minor has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the past two seasons, working to a combined 5.18 ERA in 215 1/3 innings between the Rangers, A’s and Royals in that time. Minor still notched solid strikeout and walk rates during that time, but home runs have become increasingly problematic for him. Considering he’ll move from the spacious Kauffman Stadium to the homer-happy Great American Ball Park, that’s not an encouraging trend, but the Reds clearly have some confidence they’ll be able to help curtail the issue.

With Castillo and Minor both sidelined for some time to begin the year, the Reds’ Opening Day rotation is going to feature quite a few untested arms. Mahle will take the ball on Opening Day and likely be followed by 26-year-old Vladimir Gutierrez, who held his own with a 4.74 ERA in 114 innings/22 starts as a rookie last season. Options already on the 40-man would include Tony Santillan, Reiver Sanmartin and Riley O’Brien. The Reds have several non-roster veterans and journeymen in camp, including Zack Godley, Ben Lively, Brandon Bailey and Connor Overton.  Prospects like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft could all get a look, too. Right-hander Justin Dunn, acquired in the Jesse Winker trade, is expected to miss “months” with a shoulder injury that Reds knew about at the time of the trade.

Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote over the weekend that Greene, in particular, appears to have a shot at breaking camp in the Reds’ rotation, though no final decisions have been made just yet. Greene showed well in his first start of the spring though and has already drawn praise from Bell, who noted that the former No. 2 pick has “settled in” and impressed the club while “pitching with confidence” thus far.

Reds Sign Tommy Pham

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TODAY: The Reds have officially announced Pham’s signing.  Tejay Antone (who underwent Tommy John surgery in August) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster room.

March 24: Pham is guaranteed $7.5MM on the deal, coming in the form of a $6MM salary and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, Nightengale further reports.

March 23: The Reds are in agreement with outfielder Tommy Pham on a one-year deal, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The deal, which contains a mutual option for 2023, is pending a physical. Financial terms have not been disclosed. Pham is a client of Vayner Sports.

Pham was one of the game’s more underrated players early in his career with the Cardinals and Rays. Between 2017-19, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.381/.475 line while averaging nearly 22 home runs and stolen bases apiece per season. Pham routinely posted high-end exit velocities and walk rates while making a decent amount of contact. A high ground-ball tendency kept him from emerging as an elite power threat, but he was a well-rounded and highly productive offensive player.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Tampa Bay traded Pham and Jake Cronenworth to the Padres in a deal that sent Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Edwards back to the Rays. While Pham was the headliner of the swap from the Friars’ perspective, Cronenworth proved to be the more valuable pickup. Pham struggled to a .211/.312/.312 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the only below-average offensive showing of his career. Last year’s .229/.340/.383 slash was a tick above average, by measure of wRC+, but it still came up well shy of his early-career numbers.

Pham, who didn’t emerge as a regular until his age-29 campaign, turned 34 earlier this month. It’s certainly possible his recent downturn is attributable to aging, but it’s worth noting he dealt with a few health issues in San Diego that probably also had a deleterious effect on his performance. Pham missed a month in 2020 after fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand, an injury that could certainly have sapped some of his power. Last offseason, he was the victim of a life-threatening stabbing attack that required 200 stitches to close a wound in his back.

Remarkably, Pham returned by Opening Day and didn’t spend any time on the injured list. Yet he was open about how the incident affected his offseason routine, and it’s possible he was never fully healthy in 2021. Pham actually performed much better in the first half of the year than he did in the second — he didn’t merely start slowly while recovering from the stabbing  — but it’d be understandable if he weren’t up to the physical grind of a 162-game season coming off the prior winter’s tribulations.

Pham’s dip in results has been attributable to what has happened on balls in play. Last season’s 13.9% walk rate remained excellent, while his 22.8% strikeout percentage is right in line with his career marks. Pham still made plenty of authoritative contact. His 47.6% hard contact rate and 94.9 MPH average exit velocity on balls hit in the air were both definitively better than average. The results didn’t align with those batted ball numbers, though, as Pham saw a career-low 13.5% of his fly balls clear the fences.

San Diego’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark didn’t seem to do the veteran outfielder any favors. Pham’s .412 weighted on-base average on fly balls was far outstripped by his .562 “expected” weighted on-base on those batted balls, per Statcast. A few more of those flies should clear the fences at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, perhaps enabling Pham to post numbers closer to his career norms.

That makes him a sensible buy-low target, although the signing comes in the broader context of a strange offseason for the Reds. Much of the winter was focused on the club’s cost-cutting efforts. They parted ways with Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhart, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and seemingly made no effort to retain free agent Nick Castellanos. Those all thinned out a roster that was marginally above-average (83-79 with a +26 run differential) last season.

That’ll make it difficult to make a serious run at contention in 2022, but Cincinnati has made a few short-term moves in recent days. They acquired Mike Minor from the Royals and signed each of Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland, building out the margins of the roster. Pham may be the most impactful of those moves, but competing this year while slashing costs still looks to be a difficult needle for general manager Nick Krall and his staff to thread.

Pham figures to replace Winker as the primary left fielder. Jake Fraley, whom the Reds acquired from the Mariners in the Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade, is better suited for left but could see some action in center field. Tyler Naquin will probably move from center to right after rating poorly defensively, leaving Fraley, Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama as the options in center. That’s not an ideal group, but there weren’t many capable everyday center fielders available in free agency or trade this offseason. Pham isn’t a perfect positional fit, but installing his bat into the lineup should help an offense that lost two of last season’s top three hitters.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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