- The Reds dealt away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, in a flurry of rebuilding moves that added a lot of depth and quality to Cincinnati’s farm system. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores the front office’s approach to the deadline, which first included some last-minute contract extension talks with Castillo and Drury’s representatives. When those talks didn’t result in much progress, the Reds shifted focus to the trade market, with GM Nick Krall noting that the interest in Castillo allowed them to make high initial asks. If other clubs weren’t open to that first ask, “then we can just move on….It was a pretty good way to trim the number (of teams) down from the very beginning,” Krall said. Cincinnati had always targeted Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo when speaking with the Mariners, and both of those highly-regarded infield prospects ended up included in the package the Reds received for Castillo. The Reds also had several offers on the table for Mahle and Drury, with the front office ultimately deciding that the offers from the Twins (for Mahle) and Padres (for Drury) were the best of the group.
Reds Rumors
Reds Place Graham Ashcraft On 15-Day Injured List
- Reds starter Graham Ashcraft landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 20, with biceps soreness. The rookie right-hander is headed for an MRI, but skipper David Bell indicated the club was optimistic about his ability to return before the end of the season (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 24-year-old made his big league debut debut in May and has joined Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene as rookie rotation cogs for the Reds. Through 16 starts, the hard-throwing hurler owns a 3.97 ERA on the strength of an excellent 54.8% ground-ball rate. Ashcraft looks to have made a strong case for a rotation role next season, generally outperforming both Lodolo and Greene — each of whom has been more highly-regarded by most prospect evaluators.
Reds, Stephen Piscotty Agree To Minor League Deal
The Reds have agreed to a minor league contract with Stephen Piscotty, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The veteran outfielder was released by the A’s last week. He’s headed to Triple-A Louisville.
Cincinnati is the third career organization for the 31-year-old Piscotty. A Cardinals draftee, he spent the first three seasons of his big league career in St. Louis. Piscotty was a well above-average hitter for the first couple years of that stretch, earning a long-term contract extension heading into the 2017 campaign. He had his first below-average season that year, though. After the season, the Cardinals dealt the Bay Area native to the A’s — a move partly motivated by a desire to allow Piscotty to be closer to home while his mother battled ALS.
During his first season in green and gold, Piscotty posted arguably the best season of his career. He hit a personal-high 27 home runs and put up a .267/.331/.491 showing across 605 plate appearances. At age 27, he looked to have gotten back on track offensively, but he’s seen a marked dip in performance over the past four years. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty owns a .229/.287/.378 line in just shy of 900 plate appearances. He’s hitting .190/.252/.341 with a 34.5% strikeout rate over 42 games this year.
Those struggles led the A’s to move on from Piscotty last week. Oakland will remain on the hook for the rest of this season’s $7.25MM salary, and they’ll also have to pay a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option. Cincinnati will only owe Piscotty the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum (which would be subtracted from the A’s obligations) should Piscotty play his way back to Great American Ball Park.
There’s no financial downside for the Reds in adding some extra outfield depth, as they’ve been platooning in both corners of late. The lefty-hitting TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley have gotten the stronger side of that arrangement, while Aristides Aquino and Stuart Fairchild are on hand as righty options. Aquino is hitting only .176/.236/.235 in 55 plate appearances this month, so Piscotty could be an option to supplant him in relatively short order if he gets on track with Louisville.
Latest On Connor Overton
- Speaking of setbacks, Reds right-hander Connor Overton had a hamstring tweak while working out at the Reds’ Arizona training complex, manager David Bell told reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale). A stress fracture in Overton’s lower back sent him to the 60-day injured list on May 19, and he has already been sidelined for well beyond the initial 6-to-8 week recovery timeline. A rehab assignment was still a ways away, as Overton had progressed only to long toss. Depending on the severity of Overton’s hamstring issue, the rookie is running short on time to make it back to the field before the end of the season.
Santillan Likely Out For The Season
- The Reds are unlikely to see reliever Tony Santillan return to the mound this season, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Santillan looked like someone who could potentially take on a bigger role this season after posting a 2.91 ERA/4.62 FIP over 43 1/3 innings in 2021. The Reds gave Santillan some high leverage opportunities, but he only stayed healthy long enough to collect four saves and a 5.49 ERA/4.09 FIP in 19 2/3 innings across 21 outings.
Injury Notes: Votto, Moustakas, Strahm, Barlow, Cooper
The Reds announced today that they have activated Mike Moustakas from the 10-day injured list while transferring Joey Votto to the 60-day injured list. Votto’s transfer was a mere formality, as it had already been reported that he will be undergoing season-ending rotator cuff surgery. However, Votto underwent the surgery today and there was apparently a bit more damage than expected, with his bicep also needing to be tended to.
Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed the news from general manager Nick Krall. “Joey this morning had successful surgery to repair his left rotator cuff and bicep,” Krall said. “The surgery was a little more than expected. The injury definitely limited the use of his left shoulder and affected his performance, but we expect he will be able to participate in spring training and be ready for the 2023 season.” Despite the surprise damage to Votto’s bicep, the recovery time will still reportedly be six months, meaning he should still be on pace for next season. Votto seems to be in good spirits about the whole thing, if his tweeting is anything to go by. 2023 will be the final guaranteed year of the 10-year, $225MM extension Votto signed back in 2012.
As for Moustakas, he been limited to 73 games this year due to multiple trips to the injured list. When healthy, he’s hit just .200/.289/.326. That’s fairly similar to his .208/.282/.372 output from last year, with both those lines amounting a wRC+ of 70. 2023 will also be the last guaranteed year of his deal. The Reds don’t have any financial commitments for 2024, other than the buyouts of $20MM options for Votto and Moustakas.
Other injury notes from around the league…
- The Red Sox announced that they have reinstated left-hander Matt Strahm from the injured list, optioning right-hander Josh Winckowski in a corresponding move. Strahm had been out of action for more than a month due to a wrist contusion. The southpaw is having a nice bounceback season after losing most of 2021 to injury. Through 27 2/3 innings this season, he has a 3.58 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate that’s the best he’s registered since 2018. He’ll look to continue with those strong results down the stretch as he’s heading back to free agency this winter and could do better than the one-year, $3MM deal he got from Boston for 2022.
- The Rangers announced that reliever Joe Barlow has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right index finger blister, with A.J. Alexy recalled to take his place on the roster. Barlow already went to the IL earlier this year due to a blister on the same finger, returning just two days ago. Now he’ll head back to the IL due to the same issue in what is surely a frustrating development for the hurler. Prior to these setbacks, he got some time as the club’s closer, racking up 13 saves. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season through 31 1/3 innings.
- The Marlins announced to reporters, including Christina De Nicola of of MLB.com, that first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper has been placed on the seven-day concussion IL. Cooper’s hitting .269/.345/.415 on the year, good enough for a wRC+ of 118. He’s somewhat quietly been a consistently above-average hitter in recent years, producing a wRC+ of 111 or higher in four straight season now.
Joey Votto To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery On Rotator Cuff
Joey Votto’s season is over, as the longtime Reds first baseman told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he will undergo surgery on Friday to fix a torn rotator cuff.
As Votto told reporters (including reps from Bally Sports), that his shoulder has actually been bothering him since 2015, though it has only become “painful to the point where it’s…difficult to lift, hurts to sleep” over the last few months. “The doctor informed me that with these sort of injuries at some point you hit a breaking point, and you’re not able to manage it quite as well,” Votto said, and that proverbial breaking point only occurred this season. The procedure has roughly a six-month rehab time, so Votto should be ready for around the start of the Reds’ Spring Training camp.
Votto’s 16th season will finish with 91 games played, as beyond this rotator cuff problem, he also missed over two weeks on the COVID-19 list in May. The veteran posted a .205/.319/.370 slash line and hit 11 home runs over 376 plate appearances — he hit well in his first few weeks after returning from the COVID list but otherwise, the 2022 season has been a struggle.
While the number of games is certainly a factor, Votto’s 92 wRC+ is the worst of his career, and it represents the second time in four seasons that Votto’s offensive production has fallen beneath the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold. Votto did hit pretty well in 2020, yet there were still whispers that his best days were behind him….before Votto exploded with another excellent season in 2021. The first baseman slugged 36 homers (matching the second-highest total of his career) last year while hitting .266/.375/.563 in 533 PA.
It’s safe to say that Votto’s increasingly problematic rotator cuff injury was the source of his 2022 dropoff, as the lesser version of his shoulder soreness didn’t stop from posting MVP-caliber numbers on multiple occasions since 2015. With the injury now finally addressed, it is possible that Votto might have one more big performance in store for 2023. That said, Votto will also be 39 years old next season, and even with a fixed rotator cuff, he might not be immune to aging curve that usually limits players outside of their prime years.
The return from surgery also adds another wrinkle to what might be Votto’s farewell season altogether. 2023 is the final guaranteed season of the 10-year, $225MM extension Votto signed back in April 2012, though Cincinnati has a $20MM club option (with a $7MM buyout) for 2024. If Votto did return to his 2021 form, that could be enough for the Reds to make the $13MM decision to bring back the longtime face of the franchise, even if the Reds have been more focused on cutting payroll in the last two seasons.
Votto’s own feelings will naturally also be a factor, as he has intimated in the past that he would retire if he was no longer getting enjoyment out of playing the game. It remains to be seen how Votto will approach this eventual decision, as he will surely weigh such factors as his health, how close the Reds might be to contending, and his 2023 performance as well as the personal satisfaction he still derives from baseball. Whenever he does decide to hang up the glove, Votto will surely get a lot of consideration from Hall Of Fame voters, and a ticket to Cooperstown could well be in Votto’s longer-term future.
Reds Sign Derek Law To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed right-hander Derek Law to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to the Triple-A Louisville Bats.
Law, 31, has previously pitched for the Giants, Blue Jays and Twins, before joining the Tigers this year. He was signed to a minor league contract in April and pitched well in Triple-A this season. In 39 innings over 33 appearances, he registered a 3.23 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.2% ground ball rate.
He was selected to the big league club at the end of July but was designated for assignment less than a week later, after getting into just two MLB games. Law cleared waivers and was outrighted by the Tigers, though he was eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career and also has over three years of MLB service time.
Law did indeed elect free agency and will now join a Cincinnati team with notable pitching depth concerns. They currently have 11 hurlers on the injured list, with seven of those being on the 60-day IL. Given those injuries and the fact that they traded Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at the deadline, the pitching staff is not in the strongest shape at the moment. Should they decide they need a fresh arm, Law should be an intriguing option, given his experience and solid minor league numbers this year.
Marlins Outright Billy Hamilton
The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Billy Hamilton to Triple-A Jacksonville and optioned outfielder Bryan De La Cruz to Jacksonville, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. That pair of moves makes room for infielder/outfielders Jon Berti and Brian Anderson to be reinstated from the injured list.
That Hamilton has already been outrighted to Triple-A indicates that he passed through waivers unclaimed. Given the time of year and the number of teams that could view him as a vital defensive replacement/pinch-runner late in the season, that’s a bit of a surprise. That said, Hamilton also has the ability to reject this assignment in favor of free agency, which would allow him the opportunity to potentially latch on with a contender.
Hamilton, 31, appeared in 20 games with the Marlins but, reflective of the role in which he’ll most often find himself at this point in his career, logged just 15 plate appearances. The former top prospect averaged 57 steals per season with the Reds from 2014-17 and has long been regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position. His offense has never matched the baserunning and defensive value, however, and his typically pedestrian output at the plate has dwindled even further in recent years.
Dating back to the 2019 season, the switch-hitting Hamilton is a .209/.266/.293 hitter in 241 plate appearances. Though he had a knack for putting the ball in play early in his career, he’s fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances over the past two seasons.
That said, Hamilton has gone 16-for-16 in stolen bases over the past two seasons and is 321-for-392 (81.9%) in his career. He’s also racked up a whopping 74 Defensive Runs Saved and 59 Outs Above Average to go along with a 57.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 6865 career innings in the outfield (nearly all coming in center).
Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann
Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429
Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.
Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620
After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.
Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA
During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.
Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.
Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA
Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.
In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.
Five More
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.
Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.
Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.
Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.
Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.
Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.
