The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders but find themselves five games under .500 and 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead in the National League Central. It’s certainly not how they drew things up, but the tightly bunched NL Wild Card picture still leaves Cincinnati with some legitimate playoff aspirations. The Reds are only four games back of the third NL Wild Card spot at the moment. They’re one of many teams on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline activity will likely hinge on how the team plays in the coming weeks. In fact, general manager Brad Meador effectively confirmed as much to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“We have to wait and see how we finish off this road trip and the homestand coming up, and then we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re talking about it. We’d love to be able to add, but realistically, we’ll probably just have to see how it goes.”
The Reds control their own fate, in many respects, and they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a series of eminently winnable games. They took the first of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium last night and have a tough task finishing off that series, but they’ll close out the first half against three teams with sub-.500 records — including the two worst clubs in the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand where they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for three, four and three games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game road trip through Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg before starting a home series against the Cubs on July 29 (one day before the July 30 trade deadline).
It’s a pivotal stretch of games for the Reds, to say the least. A winning streak could catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (while narrowing the division gap), while an underwhelming stretch against some of the less-competitive clubs on the upcoming schedule could serve as a death knell for their 2024 postseason aspirations. Playing roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would leave the front office with some tougher decisions to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “vague” conversations exploring both sides of the market while cautioning nothing is close.
Among the most notable trade candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, will be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with five homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his walk rate to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a combined 8.6% in 2022-23.
India is playing out the first season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that bought out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked into a $5MM salary for the 2025 season and would be arbitration-eligible in the 2025-26 offseason before hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a good defensive second baseman, but he’s been a line-drive machine at the plate this year (24.9%) while showing his best K-BB profile since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021.
While India conceded to Wittenmyer that last year’s slate of trade rumblings got to him mentally, this time around he feels more prepared for it. The 27-year-old emphasized a desire to remain in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” the city and organization while simultaneously acknowledging that a potential trade is beyond his control and not something on which he plans to dwell.
Montas would be the roster’s most straightforward trade candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced back to his Oakland form but has been healthy with the Reds after missing nearly all of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 15 starts.
Montas’ 95.1 mph average heater (via Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to his career-best 26.6% mark, set back in 2021. Still, he’s pitched like a capable enough fourth starter and has seen his velocity build as the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph with his fastball through late April but is at 95.5 mph dating back to May 1.
Over Montas’ past six starts, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate in that stretch is too high, but the velocity and missed bats are beginning to resurface. If he can continue some of those positive gains in velocity and strikeouts, Montas could be of interest to teams looking to add to the middle tier of their rotation.
The Reds have other candidates to be moved, though their willingness to give out some surprising opt-out clauses over the winter could work against them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts worth $16MM and $26MM, respectively, but the second season of each of those deals is a player option. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, such clauses often present severe impediments to trading a player.
Other names to watch in the event of a Reds sale would include relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free agents at season’s end. Each has had varying levels of success this season while playing on an affordable salary. The return for any one of those three likely wouldn’t be enormous but could shed a small money off the payroll while adding a lottery-ticket prospect to the lower tiers of the farm system.
All of that is putting the cart before the horse, however. The Reds’ roster will have a nice window of winnable games to convince the front office that adding pieces is the proper route in the weeks ahead. Cincinnati has received negligible production from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — although Noelvi Marte’s recent return likely means they’ll install a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base more regularly now. Adding some kind of bat to help boost the offense would be prudent — assuming the Reds can keep themselves afloat or even improve upon their standing in the next couple weeks.
