- Mike Yastrzemski is closing in on a return from the injured list, as he recently took part in a live batting practice session and ran the bases yesterday. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (X link) writes that Yastrzemski is set for more baserunning work tomorrow, and he has been working in the outfield today. Yastrzemski has been out with a hamstring strain since July 30, and seemed to be on the verge of a return two weeks ago before suffering another strain during rehab work. Now, the outfielder could return to San Francisco’s lineup as early as Monday, when the Giants begin an important series with the Reds.
- Matt McLain’s instant success with the Reds creates an interesting sliding-doors moment for the Diamondbacks, who drafted McLain 25th overall in 2018 but didn’t reach an agreement to sign. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that the two sides couldn’t manage the gap between McLain’s ask for a $3MM bonus and the Diamondbacks’ offer, which was the $2,636,400 slot price attached to the 25th pick. Beyond the money, McLain told Piecoro that “I was pretty set on [playing in college]. I wanted to go to UCLA. I think that if I would have signed in the minor leagues at that point, I would have always wondered what UCLA was like and what I had missed out on. I don’t think it was necessarily the other way around.” As it turned out, McLain had a standout career in college, and ended up picked by the Reds with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, receiving a $4.625MM bonus that was well above slot price.
Reds Rumors
Reds Outright Henry Ramos
The Reds have sent outfielder Henry Ramos outright to Triple-A Louisville, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He had lost his 40-man roster spot when Cincinnati selected Nick Martini onto the big league roster on Tuesday.
It’s the second time this season in which Cincinnati sent Ramos through waivers. The Reds outrighted him in mid-July and reselected his contract a couple weeks ago. Ramos had played his way back to the bigs with an excellent showing in Louisville. Through 234 Triple-A plate appearances on the year, the 31-year-old is hitting .315/.399/.522 with nine homers and a quality 12% walk rate.
Ramos hasn’t maintained that power pace in very brief big league looks. Cincinnati has plugged him into 23 games and given him 86 trips to the plate. Ramos has walked in 12.4% of those and has reached base at a solid .349 clip, but he has managed just four extra-base knocks (three doubles and a triple).
The switch-hitter has spent over a decade in the minor leagues. He has logged minors action with the Red Sox, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and D-Backs but had only reached the majors with Arizona (an 18-game stint two years ago) prior to this season’s stay with the Reds. Ramos has been outrighted twice before and therefore has the right to explore free agency, but he could choose to accept the assignment to Louisville as he had in July.
Reds Place Joey Votto On 10-Day IL, Recall Nick Senzel
The Reds have placed first baseman Joey Votto on the 10-day IL with left shoulder discomfort, the team announced. In a corresponding roster move, Nick Senzel has been recalled from Triple-A Louisville.
This specific injury is especially worrisome for Votto, considering the left rotator cuff surgery that cost him the final seven weeks of the 2022 season and the first 12 weeks of 2023. It’s often a bad sign when a player re-aggravates a previous injury, and it’s particularly concerning for a player of Votto’s age; he will turn 40 in September.
Last summer, Votto explained that his shoulder had been causing him problems since 2015, and he only opted for surgery once the pain reached a breaking point. Evidently, the surgery was unable to completely alleviate his pain.
The veteran got off to a slow start when he first came off the injured list in mid-June, but it wasn’t long before Votto found his footing. Across 30 games between early July and mid-August, he hit ten home runs in 115 plate appearances, putting up a 134 wRC+. He wasn’t walking quite like prime Votto, but he was crushing the baseball. He recorded 12 barrels and 34 hard-hit balls, and his 92.1-mph average exit velocity was reminiscent of his 92.9-mph figure from his resurgent 2021 season. It certainly seemed like Votto was back to full health and ready to start padding his Hall of Fame resume.
Unfortunately, he has struggled tremendously over his last ten games. In 37 plate appearances, Votto has just four hits and 11 strikeouts. His whiff rate has risen to a career-high, and he hasn’t barreled a single ball. He exited yesterday afternoon’s contest against the Angels partway through and did not return for the second game of the doubleheader that evening. The recurrence of his shoulder discomfort explains his early exit and could explain the sudden downturn in his performance.
As Gordon Wittenmyer reports for the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds are planning to put Votto through “a strengthening program” before re-evaluating his status. With no timetable for his return, it’s fair to wonder if Votto is done for the season. If so, it becomes increasingly likely that the Reds will not pick up his option for the 2024 campaign. The team holds a $20 million option with a $7 million buyout, which means they must decide if their long-time star is worth an additional $13 million in payroll next year. If the Reds decline their option, Votto will become a free agent for the first time in his 17-year career. There is little use speculating about what Votto might do in free agency without a better understanding of his current injury. The severity of his shoulder problems will inform Cincinnati’s decision and, subsequently, his next course of action.
Senzel has had a difficult season, including two separate trips to the injured list and one optional assignment to the minor leagues. In 80 games for the Reds, he has a 72 wRC+ and -0.5 FanGraphs WAR. He has mostly split his time between third base and the outfield, and the defensive metrics suggest he has been below average at the hot corner and all three outfield positions. With the recent promotion of top prospect Noelvi Marte, Senzel is unlikely to see much time at third, but he could play the outfield while Spencer Steer takes over for Votto at first base. Cincinnati also has young outfielders TJ Hopkins and Michael Siani on the 26-man roster, in addition to journeyman Nick Martini. Trey Mancini is also in the organization as of yesterday evening, and it stands to reason that the Reds signed him to a minor league deal in light of Votto’s injury.
Reds Sign Trey Mancini To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed first baseman/corner outfielder Trey Mancini to a minor league contract, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The veteran was released by the Cubs after being designated for assignment on deadline day.
Mancini’s tenure with Chicago lasted only a few months. Signed to a two-year, $14MM free agent pact last offseason, he played in 79 games. Mancini slumped to a career-worst .234/.299/.336 batting line through 263 trips to the plate. He homered only four times and struck out at a lofty 29.7% clip. He particularly struggled in the two months preceding the deadline, hitting .200/.247/.318 in 93 plate appearances from June 1 onwards.
Chicago added Jeimer Candelario once they played their way into buying, bumping Mancini from the roster. He spent a few weeks on the open market but will now join one of their top competitors in a tightly-packed playoff bubble. The Cubs currently occupy the second Wild Card slot in the National League but are just half a game clear of the Giants, Reds and D-Backs — all of whom are tied for the last spot. Both Chicago and Cincinnati are still within four games of the Brewers in the NL Central.
Mancini doesn’t step right back into the playoff chase, as he’ll begin on a non-roster deal. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s added to the MLB team in relatively short order, though, as the Reds could use a right-handed bat in a first base/corner outfield mix that skews toward the left side.
While Mancini’s stint in the Windy City was unquestionably a disappointment, he’d been an above-average hitter in his three prior seasons. The Notre Dame product connected on 35 home runs with a .291/.364/.535 slash in 2019. He’s never replicated quite those heights but has topped 20 longballs on three other occasions. Between 2021-22, Mancini combined for a decent .247/.323/.412 showing in a little over 1200 plate appearances.
While Mancini has struggled against pitchers of either handedness this year, he had a quality .263/.334/.450 mark against left-handed pitching in the two prior seasons. The Reds have Joey Votto at first base and lefty-swinging Will Benson — whom they’ve almost entirely shielded from unfavorable platoon matchups — in right field. Righty-swinging Kevin Newman and Stuart Fairchild both recently landed on the injured list, while Nick Senzel was optioned a few weeks ago. TJ Hopkins, Michael Siani and Nick Martini are currently on the MLB roster in a depth capacity.
If they call Mancini up, he’d add a much more accomplished bat to the bench. He’s also regarded as a strong clubhouse leader, which would surely be welcome in a generally young Reds’ locker room as they vie for an unexpected postseason berth. Since he joined the organization before September 1, Mancini would be eligible for the playoffs if the Reds find their way into October.
The Cubs are on the hook for Mancini’s respective $7MM salaries in each of the next two years. If the Reds select his contract, they’d only owe him the prorated portion of the $720K league minimum for whatever time he spends in the majors. That amount would come off the Cubs’ ledger.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The White Sox fire Ken Williams and Rick Hahn (1:05)
- The new CBA makes mid-August prospect promotion season (8:15)
- The Rays lose Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery (15:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- With the Reds calling up Noelvi Marte, how do they fit in playing time for all their rookie position players? After keeping Nick Senzel at the deadline, what kind of return could they get for trading him during the offseason? (18:40)
- Will the Mets pursue any notable free agent pitchers this off season? (24:05)
- Of the teams that have exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this season, which ones do you see as most likely to dip back below it during this coming offseason? (26:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back? – listen here
- The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here
- Trade deadline recap – listen here
Nick Lodolo Headed For Second Opinion On Left Leg After Additional Stress Reaction
Reds starter Nick Lodolo is headed for a second opinion after being diagnosed with another stress reaction in his left tibia, manager David Bell informed the club’s beat (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). With less than six weeks remaining in the regular season, it seems possible his year is in jeopardy.
Left leg issues have hampered Lodolo since May. He was placed on the injured list with what the club initially called a calf strain. They later modified the diagnosis to a tibia stress reaction which kept him in a walking boot for upwards of six weeks. He was able to shed the boot by the start of July and begin ramping up with a goal of returning to an MLB mound by late August.
Lodolo had made three minor league rehab starts over the past two weeks. During a Triple-A appearance on Sunday, the issue flared back up. Even if Lodolo can work back from the injury without surgery, he’s obviously no longer in position to return from the injured list this month.
It’s subpar timing for the Reds, to say the least. Cincinnati is half a game back of the Giants and D-Backs for the NL’s final Wild Card spot. They’re in third place in the NL Central, four games behind the division-leading Brewers.
The biggest question is whether their rotation can hold up enough to keep their surprising postseason bid alive. Cincinnati welcomed Hunter Greene back from the 60-day IL over the weekend, but he was tattooed by the Blue Jays in his first start in two months. Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Brett Kennedy comprise the rest of the current rotation. Abbott has been excellent, while Ashcraft and Williamson have found their footing in the second half after rough starts. Yet Kennedy is a 29-year-old with 38 2/3 career big league innings, while a recent injury to Ben Lively has further thinned an already tenuous starting staff.
Lodolo had been hit hard in his first seven starts of the season, allowing a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 frames. The former #7 overall pick had a strong campaign when healthy a year ago, working to a 3.66 ERA while striking out just under 30% of opposing hitters in his first 19 MLB starts.
Reds Select Nick Martini, Designate Henry Ramos For Assignment
The Reds announced a series of roster moves today involving four outfielders. Michael Siani was recalled from Triple-A Louisville and Nick Martini was selected to the roster while Stuart Fairchild was placed on the seven-day concussion list, retroactive to Monday, and Henry Ramos was designated for assignment.
Martini, 33, returns to the big leagues for the first time since 2021. He spent last year with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting .296/.365/.461 over 139 games. He parlayed that into a return to affiliated ball, signing a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason. He’s spent all of this year in Triple-A so far, hitting 15 home runs in 93 games while drawing walks in 14.4% of his plate appearances. His .275/.393/.481 line at that level amounts to a wRC+ of 121, indicating he’s been 21% above league average.
He’ll now get another chance to bring that production up to the majors, something that has generally eluded him in his career. His 2,186 Triple-A plate appearances have resulted in a strong line of .294/.398/.445 but his major league batting line is just .270/.369/.369, with most of his major league success coming with the A’s back in 2018.
He’s mostly been playing the outfield corners for Louisville this year, though has also spent some time at first base and had a brief look in center. The Reds have been using an outfield of Will Benson, TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer of late. Martini and Siani will replace Fairchild and Ramos as depth options, alongside TJ Hopkins.
As for Ramos, 31, he has been on and off the Reds’ roster this year. Signed to a minor league deal in the winter, he has twice had his contract selected and has now twice been designated for assignment. He’s taken 86 trips to the plate and has slashed .243/.349/.311 in those. His 54 Triple-A games have resulted in a much stronger .315/.399/.522 line. The last time he was DFA’d, he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment, which is a process that could play out again in the coming days.
Poll: Who’s Going To Win The NL Central?
With the Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing season taking them out of contention early, the NL Central has been thrown wide open in 2023. Even the Pirates looked like they might have a breakout in them after an impressive 19-9 start in April, though their subsequent struggles have shown that the Bucs aren’t yet out of the rebuilding woods.
That has left three teams still in the mix, as the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs enter Sunday’s action battling for not only the NL Central title, but playoff berths of any sort via the wild card. Milwaukee holds a three-game lead in the division, while the Cubs are just narrowly ahead of Cincinnati by percentage points, which also puts Chicago into the final NL wild card slot.
In something of a topsy-turvy year in the division, the Brewers have been the constant. Milwaukee has spent the entire season either in first place, or no more than two games behind the NLC lead. This success has come despite a middling Pythagorean record — the Brewers have outscored opponents by just a single run, yet have a 67-57 record. With tiebreakers possibly looming as a factor, the Brewers have already won the season series with the Reds (with a dominant 10-3 record) and have a 4-3 edge in games against the Cubs.
As per usual, the Brew Crew has leaned on their pitching to win games, even their usually strong rotation has been more good than great in 2023. A number of injuries have impacted the pitching mix, most notably a shoulder strain for Brandon Woodruff that cost the former All-Star about four months of action. Milwaukee’s best pitching performances have come at the back of the bullpen, as closer Devin Williams and setup man Joel Payamps have been arguably baseball’s best one-two endgame combination. This ability to hold close leads has been the main factor in the Brewers’ 25-11 record in one-run games, though that kind of anomalous success might hint at some regression.
While Milwaukee’s pitching has helped prop up a lackluster offense, the Reds have something of the opposite problem. The emergence of Cincinnati’s core of top prospects has been one of the top stories of the 2023 season, as rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Will Benson have all helped carry the Reds out of a rebuild and to a 64-60 record. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have also made their MLB debuts to add to this position player core, not to mention the contributions of Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and the ageless Joey Votto.
With a 29-35 record on June 9, the Reds suddenly shot into relevance and contention with a 12-game winning streak, and they’ve stayed afloat ever since, despite a rough 1-8 start to the month of August. Beyond the question of how the rookies can hold up under pennant race pressure, Cincinnati’s bigger issue is a lack of pitching, as Reds starters rank in the bottom three in the league in both ERA and WHIP. The returns of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Ben Lively from the injured list are being counted on to boost the rotation, as the Reds didn’t acquire any starting pitching at the trade deadline.
Just a month ago, the idea of the Cubs competing for the NL Central title would’ve seemed inconceivable, as the Wrigleyville nine had a 43-50 record. Just when it looked like Chicago might be one of the key sellers at the trade deadline, however, the team caught fire. The Cubs went 18-6 over 24 games between July 18 and August 12, finishing second in baseball in runs (160), RBI (151), average (.291), slugging percentage (.508) and wRC+ (135) in that stretch. Cody Bellinger’s huge run at the plate fueled a lot of that offensive eruption, but unheralded minor league signing Mike Tauchman wasn’t far behind Bellinger’s numbers. The late success turned the Cubs into deadline buyers, and after coming back to Chicago in a deal with the Nationals, Jeimer Candelario has also been on fire.
Chicago’s rotation has been solid overall, yet it took a big hit with the news that Marcus Stroman will miss the next several weeks recovering from a rib cartilage fracture. Losing one of their two best starters for an extended period (and maybe even the rest of the season) will test the Cubs’ starting depth, and the lineup might have to keep carrying the load to keep the team in the race.
With apologies to the Cardinals and Pirates, we’re going to assume that a miraculous late-season surge isn’t coming, so we’re going to limit the poll choices to the top three contenders. Who do you think will finish atop the NL Central standings? (Link to poll for app users)
Reds Reinstate Hunter Greene From 60-Day Injured List
The Reds have officially activated Hunter Greene from the 60-day injured list, as the right-hander will take the mound to start today’s game with the Blue Jays. Right-hander Alan Busenitz was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding 26-man roster move, and the Reds also added righty Lyon Richardson to the club’s taxi squad.
Greene last pitched in the majors on June 17, before recurring hip pain sidelined him for what became an absence of over two months. Both Greene and the Reds wanted the young hurler to be at full strength before returning, so in theory, Greene should be fully recovered and ready to become a big part of Cincinnati’s push for a playoff berth (whether as a wild card or as the NL Central champions).
The starting rotation has been a weak point for the Reds all season, and the front office at least checked in on some notable trade candidates at the deadline but didn’t add any significant arms besides reliever Sam Moll. Instead, the Reds are hoping to get a boost from their own injured pitchers returning to action, as besides Greene’s activation, Nick Lodolo and Ben Lively are also on minor league rehab assignments.
Greene is the biggest addition of the group, as despite his lengthy IL stint, he is still the Reds’ co-leader in pitching fWAR (1.8). The former second overall pick had a respectable rookie season in 2022 and then pitched well over 73 1/3 innings this year, posting a 3.73 ERA and an excellent 31.4% strikeout rate. However, Greene’s walk rate is below average and he has allowed a lot of hard contact, so he isn’t a surefire ace at this point in his career despite his promising beginning. The Reds’ unexpected rise into contention has put a lot of extra pressure on the team’s young core as they begin their MLB careers, and Greene has more responsibility than most in trying to help stabilize the rotation.
Reds Promote Noelvi Marte
The Reds called up infield prospect Noelvi Marte today, with the corresponding move of Kevin Newman placed on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique strain. Marte is already on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster but he will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Robert Murray of Fansided was the first to report that Marte was on his way to the Show.
Marte, now 21, was a high-profile international signing of the Mariners. That club gave him a signing bonus of $1.55MM in 2018 and he quickly came to be regarded as one of the top prospects in their system. A strong professional debut in 2019 got him into top 100 territory, with Baseball America ranking him #92 in the league going into 2020.
With the pandemic wiping out the minor leagues in 2020, Marte and all other prospects missed a year of game action. But he got back on track with a solid showing in 2021, his first full professional season. He hit .273/.366/.459 between Single-A and High-A for a wRC+ of 118 while also stealing 24 bases. Going into 2022, he was considered the 18th-best prospect in the league by Baseball America, with FanGraphs having him in the #13 slot.
He came to the Reds midway through 2022 as part of the Luis Castillo trade, one of four young players that Cincinnati added to their system in that deal. Between the two organizations, he hit .279/.371/.458 at the High-A level for a wRC+ of 131. Despite those strong numbers, his prospect stock faded a bit. Baseball America dropped him to #63 overall going into 2023, noting that opposing pitchers were starting to realize they could exploit his weakness on breaking balls. He also started to move from shortstop to third base, diminishing his future value somewhat. FanGraphs expressed similar concerns in bumping him down to #91.
This year, he started at Double-A, hitting .281/.356/.464 at that level, swiping 10 bags in 50 games. He’s also hit .280/.365/.455 in 39 Triple-A games while racking up another eight steals. With the heightened offensive environment of the International League this year, that Triple-A line translates to a 105 wRC+, above-average but only slightly. Baseball America currently ranks him 52nd overall with FanGraphs at #71.
Regardless of the recent fluctuations in the evaluations from prospect watchers, this is yet another exciting young player promoted by the Reds in what is shaping up to be a remarkable season in that department. Given their recent struggles, few observers picked them to be competitive coming into the year. But they have been continually promoting one prospect after another, with Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Andrew Abbott all promoted for their debuts this year. Those players have joined other youngsters who had previously made it to the big leagues, such as Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Steer and many more.
That youth movement has shot the Reds into the postseason picture, as they are currently tied with the Marlins for the final Wild Card spot with about six weeks left on the schedule. Now they will add Marte into the mix and hope that he can add further fuel to the fire for the final playoff push. How he fits into the puzzle remains to be seen, as he’s primarily played shortstop and third base this year. De La Cruz will likely stick at short but Marte could perhaps take some time at the hot corner. Steer has been getting the bulk of playing time there lately but has also played some left field and could perhaps slot in there more often, taking playing time from Stuart Fairchild.
The timing of the promotion is worth noting, as Marte will likely retain rookie status going into 2024. Position players are considered rookies as long as they start a season with less than 130 at-bats and fewer than 46 days on a big league roster. There are now 44 days left until the end of the regular season, meaning Marte will still be a rookie next year as long as he falls shy of 130 at-bats.
That’s a significant distinction under the current collective bargaining agreement, as the Prospect Promotion Incentive can provide extra draft picks for clubs as a way to disincentive service time manipulation. A position player who had appeared on at least two Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline the preceding offseason can earn his club a bonus draft choice if a) the team carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year and b) the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons. It’s surely not a coincidence that Masyn Winn of the Cardinals and Nolan Schanuel of the Angels were both promoted as soon as they could have been while still having the ability to net their club an extra draft pick next year, with Marte now a third notable prospect promoted in recent days.
But that will be a concern for the future. In the interim, it’s yet another domino of the Reds’ incredible youth movement tipped over as they try to surge into the playoffs. With Marte joining the other young players on the roster, while pitchers like Greene and Lodolo are coming back from injuries, the fans in Cincinnati could be in for an exciting few weeks as well as a future that looks increasingly bright.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
