- Adolfo Sanchez, OF, Reds: $2.7MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #5 prospect
Reds Rumors
Nick Krall Discusses Impending Arbitration Hearing With Jonathan India
- Among the 22 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract with his club for the 2024 season by yesterday’s deadline was Reds second baseman Jonathan India, who filed at $4MM against the club’s $3.2MM counteroffer. Reds GM Nick Krall recently spoke regarding the dispute between player and club, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Krall emphasized that he doesn’t consider the impending arbitration hearing to be “adversarial” and explained the $800K gap in negotiations by saying that there was a “fundamental issue” between the sides that prevented the deal from getting done. Clubs often take strict stances in arbitration negotiations because both settlements and arbitration decisions can be used as precedent for salaries not for the player in question as he advances through the arbitration process but also by future players around the league. That at times leads to tension between players and their clubs, with right-hander Corbin Burnes’s spat with the Brewers last year standing as a recent example.
Reds Designate Daniel Duarte For Assignment
The Reds announced that right-hander Daniel Duarte has been designated for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Brent Suter, whose one-year deal with Cincinnati is now official.
Duarte spent most of the 2022 season battling elbow problems, but he still managed to make his big league debut by tossing 2 2/3 innings over three appearances with the Reds that year. With better health this past season, Duarte split the year between the big leagues (31 2/3 innings) and Triple-A Louisville (35 innings) before going on the Major League injured list in late September due to shoulder tightness.
The results were good on the whole for Duarte in 2023, as he had a 3.34 ERA in the minors and a 3.69 ERA during his time in Cincinnati. However, control has been an issue for the righty over the last seasons, as he had an 11.3% walk rate at Lousiville and then a 14.7% walk rate in the big leagues. Duarte had a respectable 25.8% strikeout rate in the minors but struck out only 16.9% of Major League batters, and he had almost as many walks (20) as strikeouts (23).
Over three years with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, Duarte had a 4.05 ERA, 26.76% strikeout rate, and a 11.61% walk rate. While respectable numbers, they also didn’t stand out to the extent that the Reds felt compelled to keep Duarte on their 40-man, and he now might be a candidate to be claimed by another team looking for bullpen depth. If he clears waivers, Cincinnati might opt to keep Duarte on hand as a relief option who can be frequently shuttled up and down from the minors as circumstances warrant.
Reds To Sign Brent Suter
The Reds are in agreement with left-hander Brent Suter on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a $3MM guarantee that takes the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for ’25. The deal is still pending a physical for the Diamond Sports Management client. Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once the contract is finalized.
It’s the latest move in a pitching-heavy offseason. The Reds have added Frankie Montas to the rotation and Emilio Pagán to the late innings. Swingman Nick Martinez could contribute in either role. Suter seems ticketed for the bullpen, although he reportedly drew some interest as a starting pitcher this winter.
The 34-year-old has spent the past half-decade in relief. Suter saw some work out of the rotation early in his career with the Brewers. Despite finding a decent amount of success, he was pushed to the bullpen by 2019 as Milwaukee graduated pitchers with higher caliber stuff.
While Suter isn’t a prototypical power reliever, he has been a valuable bullpen piece. The Harvard product has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons. Suter’s profile has been built around strong control and excellent contact suppression. He has posted better than average ground-ball rates over the past five seasons and is consistently one of the game’s toughest pitchers to square up.
Opponents have averaged between 84-86 MPH in exit velocity in each of the last four seasons, per Statcast. That ranked in the 95th percentile or better in all four years. Batters made hard contact (an exit velocity at or above 95 MPH) on only 26.3% of their batted balls a season ago. Among qualified pitchers, only Phil Maton, Tom Cosgrove and Tanner Scott did a better job avoiding authoritative contact.
The ability to stay off barrels allowed Suter to overcome hitter-friendly home environments. He turned in strong results in Milwaukee and had no issues acclimating to Colorado’s Coors Field after a waiver claim last offseason. In 69 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, including a 3.66 mark in 32 frames in Denver. A track record of success in difficult home parks is surely appealing to a front office building a pitching staff in Great American Ball Park.
Nevertheless, teams generally harbor skepticism about a pitcher who succeeds on guile and command without overpowering pure stuff. Suter’s only season with an above-average strikeout rate came during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Last year, he punched out just 18.8% of opponents while sitting in the mid-upper 80s with his sinker and four-seam fastball.
Suter’s age and lack of velocity was always likely to limit his market. It’s still somewhat surprising that he landed a $3MM guarantee. Next year’s salary is a half million dollars below the $3MM he made last year, his final arbitration season. Suter grew up in Cincinnati and attended high school there, so it seems fair to presume that geography played a role in his decision — particularly if his camp was sorting through a number of low-cost, one-year offers.
He joins Sam Moll and Alex Young as left-handed relief options for skipper David Bell. The Reds have Alexis Díaz in the ninth inning and brought back Buck Farmer to join Pagán and Lucas Sims as right-handed setup candidates. Ian Gibaut, who is out of options, could compete with Fernando Cruz and Tejay Antone for the final spot or two in the middle innings.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Reds Re-Sign Alan Busenitz
The Reds and right-hander Alan Busenitz agreed on a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the transactions log on Busenitz’s MLB.com profile page. Busenitz hit minor league free agency earlier this winter but now is set to return to Cincinnati for a second season in the organization.
A 25th-round pick by the Angels in the 2013 draft, Busenitz made his MLB debut with the Twins back in 2017, pitching out of the club’s bullpen for two seasons with a 4.58 ERA and 5.49 FIP. After being granted his release by the Twins prior to the 2019 season, Busenitz landed with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Busenitz’s first season in Japan was a dominant one, as he posted a sterling 1.69 ERA in 64 innings of work. Busenitz’s run prevention numbers regressed someone over the next two seasons, with a 3.51 ERA in 82 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18%, but he rebounded in 2022 to post a 2.14 ERA over 33 2/3 frames while punching out 21.1% of batters faced.
Busenitz’s strong 2022 campaign and generally solid NPB track record earned him a look from the Reds on a minor league deal last offseason. After posting a 2.83 ERA through 155 2/3 career innings overseas, the right-hander’s return to stateside ball saw him shuttled on and off the club’s 40-man roster throughout the season, though he ultimately posted a strong 2.57 ERA across his six appearances in the majors with five strikeouts against one walk in seven innings of work. His minor league numbers were also strong to start the season, as the righty posted a 2.48 ERA in 40 innings at the Triple-A level through mid-August. He struck out 25% of batters faced during that time, though his 12.8% walk rate stood out as a potential red flag.
The wheels came off for Busenitz after being sent to the minors for the final time in 2023 in late August. The right-hander struggled terrible to a 13.91 ERA in his final 11 minor league appearances last year, dragging his overall minor league numbers last season down to a mediocre 4.94 ERA in 51 innings. If Busenitz can avoid a late season slump in 2024, he could provide the Reds with a valuable depth arm in 2024 and help to support a relief corps that the club relied on for a whopping 652 1/3 frames last year, a figure that was second to only the Giants in the NL. Busenitz figures to compete with the likes of Fernando Cruz and Buck Farmer for a spot in the Reds bullpen this spring.
Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease
The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.
Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.
With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.
For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.
Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.
Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.
His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.
The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.
Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.
But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”
With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.
The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.
As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.
Reds Outright Austin Wynns
The Reds announced they’ve assigned catcher Austin Wynns outright to Triple-A Louisville after he cleared waivers. Cincinnati designated him for assignment on Tuesday as the corresponding move to sign Frankie Montas. The Reds also announced they received cash considerations from the Giants to complete the December 19 trade that sent outfielder TJ Hopkins to San Francisco.
Trading Hopkins was coincidentally necessitated by the signing of Wynns to a free agent deal. The Reds inked the 33-year-old backstop to a one-year pact. He held his spot on the 40-man roster for roughly three weeks. Tuesday’s DFA again leaves Cincinnati with Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile as the only catchers on the 40-man.
While it’s not the outcome Wynns had wanted, it’s likely one he knew was a possibility. He signed a split contract that would pay him at a $900K rate for time spent in the majors and $300K for whatever work he logs in Triple-A. Wynns is out of minor league options, so the only way he’d have gotten to Triple-A is if Cincinnati ran him through outright waivers at some point.
With over three years of big league service time, Wynns technically has the right to reject the assignment and return to the free agent market. Doing so would require forfeiting the $300K sum he locked in on the split deal, however. He’ll likely accept the assignment and report to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t land an Opening Day spot, he can start the year in Louisville while earning a decent salary for a minor league player.
Wynns stands as the top non-roster option if the Reds decide to go back to a three-catcher group — as they did last season with Stephenson, Maile and Curt Casali. Wynns is coming off a poor offensive showing in which he hit .208/.268/.277 over 51 games between the Giants, Dodgers and Rockies. He has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he has parts of five seasons of big league experience and rated as a solid defender last season. He thwarted an excellent 30.8% of stolen base attempts with career-best marks as a pitch framer.
Yankees Claim Bubba Thompson From Reds
The Yankees announced that they have claimed outfielder Bubba Thompson off waivers from the Reds. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Yanks came into today with two open roster spots on their 40-man roster but have now claimed Thompson and reportedly signed right-hander Cody Poteet.
Thompson, 26 in June, has 92 games of major league experience, all of that coming with the Rangers over the past two seasons. He has hit .242/.286/.305 in his first 241 major league plate appearances, which translates to a wRC+ of 65. But he has 22 steals in 27 tries and Statcast considers his sprint speed to be elite, with just Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him in 2023.
His hitting has been a bit better at the Triple-A level, where he’s hit .284/.347/.440 for a wRC+ of 95 dating back to the start of 2022. Since he has that elite speed and is considered a strong outfield defender as well, even a bit of offense could make him an intriguing player.
The Yankees have a crowded outfield with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham all set for regular or semi-regular playing time. Jasson Domínguez will be in the mix once he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Oswaldo Cabrera will likely be on the roster in a utility capacity while Everson Pereira and Oscar González are on the 40-man as well.
Thompson still has a couple of options, so the Yanks can keep in the minors to get regular reps and see if his bat develops. Even if that doesn’t happen, his speed and defense could help him carve out a bench role as a pinch runner or defensive replacement at some point. He still has less than a year of service time and is therefore still a ways away from free agency or even reaching arbitration.
MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Dodgers signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and what’s next for the teams that missed (0:55)
- Red Sox agreed to terms with Lucas Giolito and then traded Chris Sale to the Braves for Vaughn Grissom (7:50)
- The Royals spreading money around to various players (16:10)
- The Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (20:25)
- Mariners sign Mitch Garver (26:05)
- Reds sign Frankie Montas (28:35)
Check out our past episodes!
- Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves – listen here
- Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
- Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Reds Sign Justin Bruihl To Minor League Deal
The Reds announced that they have signed left-hander Justin Bruihl to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp.
Bruihl, 27 in June, made his major league debut with the Dodgers in 2021 and served as a frequently-optioned depth arm for that club until a few months ago. Through the end of July 2023, he had made 65 appearances for Los Angeles with a solid 3.65 earned run average. His 7.6% walk rate was fairly strong and his 44.7% ground ball rate around average, but his 15.6% strikeout rate in that time was quite low. Some good luck may have kept runs from crossing the plate, as his .263 batting average on balls in play was on the low side, and ERA estimators like his 4.48 FIP and 4.61 SIERA were less impressive than his actual ERA.
He was designated for assignment as the club needed some roster spots after acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox. He was flipped to the Rockies for cash but then struggled badly with his new club, allowing six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings over seven appearances. He was designated for assignment again in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed, eventually reaching free agency at season’s end.
The Reds have Sam Moll and Alex Young as southpaws slated for work in the big league bullpen but Bruihl will give them some experienced non-roster depth. If Bruihl can earn his way onto the roster at any point, he still has an option year remaining, meaning he could be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers again.
