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NL Central Notes: Candelario, Donovan, Taillon

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Reds third baseman Jeimer Candelario took an early exit from Wednesday night’s contest with the Phillies. He appeared to hurt himself on a swing in his final at-bat, and while he smacked a double on the very next pitch, he continued to grimace from second base. After the game, manager David Bell said that “hopefully” it was nothing more than “hyperextension of the elbow” (per Bally Sports Cincinnati). He said the team does not believe the injury is serious, but they will reevaluate Candelario on Friday before their series opener against the Mets.

Not so long ago, the Reds appeared to have a playing time crunch in the infield. However, Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension and Matt McLain’s shoulder surgery cleared up the logjam. If Candelario requires an IL stint, Cincinnati’s infield depth will suddenly be tested. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can play third base, but they’re already playing regular roles in left field and at first base, respectively. Santiago Espinal, acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays late this spring, is another option to fill in at the hot corner.

In other injury news from around the NL Central…

  • Brendan Donovan was also removed mid-game on Wednesday. Leading off for the Cardinals, he was hit by a pitch in the very first plate appearance of the game. Several innings later, he was hit again, and this time, he did not return to left field in the bottom half of the frame. The second pitch hit him on his throwing elbow (per John Denton of MLB.com). Donovan, a versatile utility player, has played six of his seven games in left field this season. The Cardinals already have three outfielders on the IL – Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, and Dylan Carlson – and can hardly afford to lose another.
  • In more positive injury news, Jameson Taillon is progressing well as he recovers from a stiff lower back. According to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the righty’s live batting practice session went well on Tuesday. He is set to make a rehab start on Sunday. If all goes well in his rehab appearance, he could still be on track to rejoin the Cubs in mid-April; two weeks ago, manager Craig Counsell suggested mid-April was the earliest Taillon could return (per Lee).

Nick Lodolo Pitches Well In First Rehab Start

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Nick Lodolo looked sharp today in the first of two planned Triple-A rehab starts.  The Reds southpaw allowed one run in five innings and 77 pitches of work, while striking out eight and allowing two hits and three walks.  After missing most of the 2023 season due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, Lodolo was still feeling some leg soreness this spring, so the Reds started him on the 15-day injured list in order to better ease Lodolo’s path back to action.  Assuming he is feeling healthy after today’s outing and his next rehab start, Lodolo is slated to make his season debut for the Reds on April 10.

Reds To Re-Sign Mike Ford, Claim Yosver Zulueta From Blue Jays

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The Reds announced that they’ve claimed Yosver Zulueta from the Blue Jays and optioned him to Triple-A Louisville. Infielder Matt McLain, who had shoulder surgery this week, has been placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the roster. Francys Romero reported on Zulueta’s claim prior to the official announcement. The timing is surprising, as Toronto only announced earlier today that Zulueta was being designated for assignment. It’s likely that the move was actually made earlier in the week but not formally announced at the time. Outright waivers are typically a 48-hour process. The Reds also re-signed first baseman Mike Ford to a minor league deal after releasing him last week, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

With McLain’s recent surgery, the Reds effectively had a free roster spot to use. It’s unclear exactly how long the infielder will be out but it’s evidently longer than two months, as he is now ineligible to be activated until late May at the earliest.

The Reds have used that spot to snag Zulueta, an intriguing arm but one with significant control issues. In 2022, he tossed 55 2/3 innings across four different levels of Toronto’s system with an earned run average of 3.72. He struck out 33.9% of batters faced that year but also gave out free passes at a 12.9% clip, starting 12 of his 21 appearances.

The Jays moved him more firmly into a relief role in 2023, as he started just seven of his 45 appearances at Triple-A. Even those seven starts were mostly two or three innings as an opener, leading to a tally of 64 innings on the year. He had a 4.08 ERA in that time while striking out 25.4% of batters faced and keeping 51.3% of balls in play on the ground, but also walked 15.7% of batters that came to the plate against him. Here in the spring, he tossed five innings, notching just two strikeouts but giving out four walks.

He still has a couple of options and the Reds have quickly sent him down. They will surely try to help him get a better grasp of his stuff and see if he can become a useful piece at some point. For now, he can serve as depth until the big league club needs a fresh arm or he forces his way into their plans.

Ford, 31, is a strong power bat but he has strikeout issues and no versatility since he’s only capable of playing first base or serving as a designated hitter. He hit 16 home runs in 251 plate appearances with the Mariners last year while striking out at a 32.3% rate.

He nonetheless had to settle for a minor league deal with the Reds and destroyed opposing pitchers this spring, hitting three homers in 35 plate appearances and slashing .455/.486/.727. Despite that, he didn’t break camp with the club, getting released last week. The Reds have plenty of first base options in Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Steer and Jonathan India, making it difficult for Ford to be squeezed in.

Ford had an opt-out on his deal so he either triggered it or the Reds let him proactively search for his next opportunity, but he has come back to the club on another minor league deal. He’ll presumably go to Triple-A for some regular playing time and await his next opportunity, whether it’s with the Reds or somewhere else. Each of Encarnacion-Strand, Candelario, Steer and India can play other positions, so Ford could be of use down the line if the club’s injuries mount and the path to playing time opens. But he also may have another opt-out on his new deal that could allow him to go somewhere else as the season progresses, while the Reds could also maybe flip him if he’s hitting well and another club comes calling.

Matt McLain Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Reds infielder Matt McLain underwent surgery to repair the labrum and some damaged cartilage in his left shoulder yesterday, president of baseball operations Nick Krall announced this morning (X link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). A timeline for his recovery has yet to be determined, though the Reds are hopeful he’ll be able to return to the roster at some point this season.

McLain, the 17th overall draft pick back in 2021, made his big league debut last year and instantly cemented himself as a building block in Cincinnati. He appeared in 89 games and took 403 plate appearances, turning in an outstanding .290/.357/.507 slash line (128 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 23 doubles, four triples and a 14-for-19 showing in stolen bases. McLain’s 28.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate were both worse than average, which, when coupled with a sky-high .385 average on balls in play, created some reason to forecast a bit of regression. Given how strong his overall performance was, however, even if his rate stats took a step back in ’24, McLain would still likely have been a well above-average performer.

In 2023, McLain split his time between the Reds’ middle infield spots, though that was due largely to injuries for fellow top prospect Elly De La Cruz. With De La Cruz healthy in 2024, McLain had been ticketed for everyday work at second base, pushing 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India into more of a utility role.

India now figures to see quite a bit more time back at the keystone, although Cincinnati’s recent acquisition of infielder Santiago Espinal gives them a superior defensive option if the club still wants to get India more work at first base, at designated hitter or perhaps even in left field. The mere fact that the Reds proactively acquired Espinal seemed at the time to be a harbinger of bad news regarding McLain, and that’s unfortunately proven to be the case.

Much has been made of Cincinnati’s wealth of infield talent, but the injury to McLain and an 80-game PED suspension for Noelvi Marte have thinned things out considerably. Some pundits and onlookers questioned the wisdom of signing Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal with such an enviable crop of young infielders, but circumstances have changed and Candelario now looks more like a vital piece of the infield mix than an arguably superfluous luxury addition. He’ll take the primary role at the hot corner, with De La Cruz at short, Espinal/India at second and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base. Versatile Spencer Steer can back up at any of those four spots, but he’s expected to function as the Reds’ primary left fielder in 2024.

The 24-year-old McLain will receive big league service time and pay while rehabbing his shoulder on the injured list. He finished the 2023 season at 140 days of service, meaning he’s still controllable for six full seasons. He’ll quite likely be a Super Two player following the 2025 season, positioning him to be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but he’ll remain under Reds control all the way through the 2029 campaign.

A's GM David Forst Discusses Sam Moll Deal With Reds

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Boyle, 24, was a fifth-round pick by the Reds in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut with the A’s back in September. The hulking 6’7”, 240-pound hurler made the most of a three-start cup of coffee down the stretch in 2023 as he pitched to a sterling 1.69 ERA with a 3.13 FIP across 16 innings of work. In that time, Boyle struck out 25% of batters faced while walking 8.3%. Both of those rates were noticeably lower than his minor league numbers. The right-hander’s powerful arsenal, headlined by a triple-digit fastball, allowed him to breeze through the minor leagues with a career 35.4% strikeout rate at the time of his call-up. That being said, he also struggled badly with his control throughout his time in the minors; his MLB debut was the first time he had walked less than 10% of the batters he faced at any level since his seven-inning stint in rookie ball back in 2021.

On the other hand, if Boyle is able to maintain anything close to his big league debut over a full season in 2024, the deadline deal the A’s swung to acquire him from the Reds in exchange for lefty reliever Sam Moll would be nothing short of a coup. Gordon Wittnmyer of the Cincinnati Inquirer discussed this evening the circumstances surrounding the deal, adding that the Reds initially rebuffed Oakland’s proposal of Boyle as the return in a Moll trade with A’s GM David Forst acknowledging that Cincinnati declined to include Boyle “a couple of times” before eventually agreeing to the swap.

Had the Reds not come back to the negotiating table, Wittenmyer notes, it’s possible that Moll could have wound up pitching for the Cubs down the stretch last year. Wittenmyer reports that the club believed they were close to finalizing their own deal for Moll before Oakland landed Boyle. Moll, 32, enjoyed a dominant stretch run of his own with Cincinnati last fall as he pitched to a microscopic 0.73 ERA in 25 appearances with the Reds following the deal. Moll was slowed by shoulder soreness throughout camp this spring and stands to open the season on the injured list but figures to play a key role in the Cincinnati bullpen this season once healthy alongside the likes of Alexis Diaz and Emilio Pagan.

Reds Grant Mike Ford His Release

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The Reds announced Friday that first baseman/designated hitter Mike Ford was reassigned to minor league camp, indicating he won’t make the team’s Opening Day roster. Ford, who’d signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati now granted Ford his release from the club, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s once again a free agent.

Ford couldn’t have done much more with his limited time this spring to earn his way onto Cincinnati’s roster. The 31-year-old slugger appeared in 10 games and tallied 35 plate appearances, during which he posted a torrid .455/.486/.727 slash with three home runs, a pair of walks and just three punchouts. He was always something of a long shot to make the roster given the Reds’ crowded infield, but it seems that even with injuries to Matt McLain and Edwin Arroyo, plus an 80-game PED suspension for Noelvi Marte, the Reds don’t feel he’s a good fit on the 26-man roster.

In 2023, Ford posted huge power numbers with the Mariners, slashing .228/.323/.475 with 16 homers in just 251 trips to the plate. He coupled that thump with an above-average 9.6% walk rate but an unsightly 32.3% strikeout rate. The former Yankee farmhand has long had plus power and questionable contact rates, so the 2023 season wasn’t out of the norm. However, last season also represented Ford’s longest and most productive stretch in the big leagues. He’d never reached even 200 plate appearances in a major league season prior.

The left-handed-hitting Ford hasn’t been allowed to face lefties much in his career but torched them in 24 plate appearances last year and has actually fared better against fellow southpaws in his career at large. It’s only 108 plate appearances, but he’s a .268/.343/.577 hitter versus lefties compared to .200/.303/.389 against righties (in a much larger sample of 611 plate appearances).

Ford’s big spring showing and huge power output in ’23 should allow him to catch on with a club looking for some left-handed pop. There’s a chance he could even land on a big league roster, though a minor league deal on a team with a clearer path to first base/designated hitter at-bats is a bit likelier.

Reds’ Prospect Edwin Arroyo Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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The Reds informed reporters this evening that infield prospect Edwin Arroyo underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left shoulder (via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). He’ll miss the entire 2024 season. Arroyo suffered the injury when he dove back to a base on a pickoff attempt while playing in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Cincinnati acquired Arroyo as the secondary piece in the 2022 deadline blockbuster that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. The package was built around Noelvi Marte, but Arroyo was viewed as a borderline Top 100 caliber prospect in his own right. He spent most of last season at High-A Dayton, where he hit .248/.321/.427 with 13 home runs and 28 stolen bases. While not an overwhelming showing, that was respectable production for a 19-year-old.

Arroyo ranked among Cincinnati’s five to seven best prospects at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted him at the back half of the sport’s Top 100 minor league talents, calling him a potential regular as a switch-hitter with some power and a chance to stick at shortstop. While he’s certainly young enough to get to that point, the surgery deals a hit to his prospect stock and costs him a year of development reps. Arroyo had barely reached Double-A and was unlikely to impact the major league team this season, but he could’ve played his way to the upper levels with an eye towards a 2025 debut.

Instead, he’ll be faced with an extended rehab process before hopefully starting the ’25 season healthy in Double-A. Cincinnati will need to decide at the end of the 2025 campaign whether to add him to the 40-man roster or expose him to the Rule 5 draft.

Reds Acquire Santiago Espinal

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The Reds acquired infielder Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays for minor league righty Chris McElvain, both teams announced. Cincinnati has a full 40-man roster but did not immediately reveal the corresponding move.

Acquiring an infielder a week before Opening Day probably wasn’t what the Reds anticipated entering camp. For most of the offseason, it seemed likelier that Cincinnati’s infield depth would lead them to trade someone away. That was particularly true after they added corner infielder Jeimer Candelario on a three-year free agent pact.

Things have changed rather quickly. Top prospect Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. That cleared everyday third base reps for Candelario, who had previously been ticketed for action between both corner spots and designated hitter. Perhaps even more alarming than the Marte suspension was today’s announcement that expected second baseman Matt McLain received an MRI on his injured left shoulder.

The team hasn’t provided a timeline on McLain, but manager David Bell told reporters this evening that he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. Bell had rather ominously left open the possibility that McLain could require surgery this morning, although the team hasn’t announced anything on that front. The UCLA product is headed for a second opinion before there’ll be an official timetable.

That the Reds went outside the organization for another infielder wouldn’t seem to point towards them expecting McLain’s return in short order. While they await official word on his injury, they add a quality defender who can serve as a depth piece at any of second base, third base or shortstop.

Espinal, 29, rode a surprisingly strong first half to an All-Star selection in 2022. His overall track record suggests he’s more of a high-end utility player than a regular on a contender, though. Espinal has plus contact skills with below-average power. His career .273/.331/.367 batting line is right around league average, as measured by wRC+, but he’s coming off a down year.

The righty-hitting Espinal turned in a .248/.310/.335 slash with two homers over 254 plate appearances last season. He lost a couple weeks to right hamstring inflammation but otherwise spent the year as a versatile infielder off the bench. Espinal saw most of his action at second and third base. He has graded as an above-average to plus defender at both spots in the eyes of public defensive metrics. He’s capable of playing shortstop but wasn’t asked to do so often in Toronto, where Bo Bichette has been an everyday lineup fixture for three years.

Espinal still has a pair of minor league options, so the Reds can move him to Triple-A Louisville, but they presumably would not have parted with a pitching prospect if they didn’t anticipate him being on the major league roster. He’ll back up Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz and Candelario while Marte and McLain are out. His acquisition doesn’t bode well for the chances of non-roster invitee Erik González breaking camp. The Reds also had Josh Harrison and Tony Kemp on minor league deals this spring. Both players opted out and returned to free agency after being informed they wouldn’t make the team.

In January, the Jays and Espinal agreed on a $2.725MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing. That’s a fully guaranteed deal which Cincinnati agreed to absorb. RosterResource calculated their payroll around $102MM before the trade; they’re up to roughly $105MM after the deal. Espinal has a little under four years of major league service. Cincinnati can control him via arbitration for another three seasons.

Toronto offloads a few million dollars from a payroll that had been projected around $236MM. Their luxury tax number sat around $249MM. That’ll also fall by $2.725MM. As second-time tax payors, they owe a 30% fee on spending between $237MM and $257MM. Shedding Espinal’s salary also saves them around $818K in tax commitments.

Moving Espinal clears a path for the out-of-options Ernie Clement to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster. As a contact-oriented righty hitter with infield versatility, he offers a similar profile to Espinal. The Jays feared that Clement would be claimed off waivers if they tried to send him to Triple-A, particularly on the heels of a huge showing this spring.

They’ll add McElvain as a flier to the lower levels of the system. An eighth-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2022, he worked as a starter between two A-ball levels last season. McElvain pitched to a 3.75 ERA through 96 innings, albeit with a slightly below-average 21.1% strikeout rate and a walk percentage just south of 10%. He was not among Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America and didn’t receive a mention on Keith Law’s analysis of the system for The Athletic.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Matt McLain Headed For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder

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6:10pm: Bell conceded this evening that McLain will not be available on Opening Day (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). He’s headed for a second opinion to determine the extent of the injury but now seems likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

12:44pm: Reds infielder Matt McLain was scratched from the lineup Monday due to some discomfort in his left shoulder, prompting the club to have an MRI performed. While the team hasn’t divulged anything conclusive yet, manager David Bell provided an ominous update Wednesday, telling the Reds beat that the MRI found “something” and that the team is still gathering information and determining how to proceed (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). There’s an unusually broad range of outcomes at this point, as Bell didn’t firmly rule out McLain for the Opening Day roster but also acknowledged that there’s a “possibility” of shoulder surgery.

The 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, the now-24-year-old McLain made his big league debut in 2023 and immediately made an impact. In 89 games and 403 trips to the plate, he slashed .290/.357/.507 (128 wRC+) with 16 homers, 23 doubles, four triples and 14 stolen bases (in 19 tries). His 7.7% walk rate was a bit lower than average, while his 28.5% strikeout rate was well north of average.

McLain had some good fortune on balls in play (.385 BABIP), though some of that lofty BABIP is attributable to a huge 24.2% line-drive rate and strong 42.8% hard-hit rate. It’s still fair to project some regression in his performance, but even if he’s not hitting at the borderline star-caliber level he did in 2023, McLain has the look of an everyday fixture in the Reds’ lineup due both to his bat and his defensive versatility.

Though McLain was drafted as a shortstop, he split hit time between the two middle infield slots. Bell suggested earlier in camp that McLain was likelier to focus on second base this season. Elly De La Cruz is expected to take the lion’s share of reps at shortstop, though McLain could slide to that side of the bag in the event of further injury troubles for De La Cruz.

The Reds have a noted infield surplus which was only deepened when they signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal over the winter. An 80-game PED suspension for promising 22-year-old Noelvi Marte has thinned out the perceived logjam a bit, and an absence for McLain would lend further clarity to the division of playing time around the diamond. As it stands, Candelario appears lined up for regular work at the hot corner, with De La Cruz at short, McLain at second, Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base and Spencer Steer in left field. Former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been expected to bounce between second base, first base and designated hitter, though he could certainly reclaim regular playing time at second base if McLain heads to the injured list.

McLain picked up 140 days of major league service time in 2023, leaving him a bit more than a month shy of a full year (172 days). That means the Reds still have six full seasons of control over him, though he’ll very likely wind up reaching Super Two status and thus be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three. The first of those four offseasons of arbitration eligibility would fall after the 2025 campaign. On his current trajectory, McLain wouldn’t qualify for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.

Brandon Williamson To Begin Season On Injured List

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Reds starter Brandon Williamson will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager David Bell informed the Cincinnati beat on Tuesday (relayed by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The left-hander departed his Spring Training start over the weekend with shoulder soreness.

There’s no indication it’s expected to be a long-term issue, but the team didn’t provide a timeline for his return. Williamson held a spot in the Reds rotation for much of last season. He started 23 games and worked 117 innings as a rookie. After being hit hard through his first eight starts, Williamson settled in as a decent back-of-the-rotation contributor. He finished his debut campaign with a 4.46 ERA, a respectable figure for a rookie pitching in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly home environments.

That came with middling peripherals, but the TCU product still had a shot of securing a season-opening rotation spot if he were healthy. With Williamson on the shelf, Bell said that fellow lefty Andrew Abbott will get a starting job. The Reds had previously been noncommittal on that, even though Abbott had a strong rookie campaign. Over 21 starts, he worked to a 3.87 ERA while punching out 26.1% of opposing hitters. The overall numbers were impressive, but Abbott’s production fell off dramatically down the stretch. He carried a 2.35 ERA into August before allowing more than six earned runs per nine in each of the final two months.

Abbott rounds out a season-opening rotation that’ll be fronted by offseason pickup Frankie Montas. The Reds announced that the hard-throwing righty will get the nod on Opening Day for his team debut. He’ll be followed in some order by Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, fellow free agent signee Nick Martinez, and Abbott. Martinez has plenty of experience as both a starter and reliever. He’ll take at least one turn through the rotation but would be an option to move back to the bullpen once Nick Lodolo is ready for his season debut. The Reds have targeted the second week of April for the left-hander, who lost most of the 2023 season to a stress fracture in his left tibia.

Cincinnati was hit with bigger injury news over the weekend, as center fielder TJ Friedl was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist. He’ll be out for quite some time. At this stage of the offseason, there aren’t any MLB-caliber center fielders still available in free agency. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes that the Reds seem likely to turn to the combination of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild to cover center field if they can’t find help outside the organization.

As a left-handed hitter, Benson would be in position for the stronger side of a possible platoon arrangement. The Reds kept him away from southpaws last season, limiting him to 44 plate appearances. Benson was excellent when put in favorable platoon situations. He hit .297/.389/.549 in a little under 300 trips versus righty pitching. That kind of production was always going to warrant a lot of play in the Cincinnati outfield. The bigger question is whether he’s capable of handling an up-the-middle position. Benson only has 88 major league innings in center field. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have each graded him as a roughly neutral defender in the corners.

Fairchild appeared in 97 games a year ago, hitting .228/.321/.388. He’s out of minor league options and was already set to break camp, but the Friedl injury pushes him into a more important fourth outfield role. The 28-year-old has posted roughly average offensive numbers against pitchers of either handedness in his major league career. He owns a more impressive .275/.371/.507 slash line over parts of three Triple-A campaigns.

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