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Lorenzen Expects To Pitch Out Of Reds’ Rotation In 2021

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Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson suggested in late September that right-hander Michael Lorenzen had “put himself in the conversation” for a rotation job in 2021. Lorenzen echoed that idea and perhaps took things a step further today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, telling hosts Jim Duquette and Jon Morosi that plans to report to Spring Training as a starting pitcher (Twitter link, with audio).

“My expectation is to show up as a starter and to finish the season as a starter,” said Lorenzen. “That’s where my mind is at, and I’m excited for it.”

The 28-year-old Lorenzen (29 in January) isn’t exactly a stranger to the starting rotation, having started 21 games as a rookie back in 2015. He made a pair of September starts for the Reds in 2020 as well, although he spent the entirety of the 2016-19 seasons working in relief as one of the team’s top setup men.

Lorenzen is a hyperathletic player who has been utilized in two-way fashion by the Reds. He’s an oft-used pinch-hitter and pinch-runner who carries a career .235/.284/.432 batting line and seven home runs through 146 plate appearances. Lorenzen is also 5-for-7 in career stolen base attempts and has graded out as an above-average defensive outfielder. The Reds think highly enough of his glove and bat that they started him as their center fielder six times in 2019,

Things haven’t panned out for Lorenzen in the rotation to this point in his career, though his only real chance came back in that 2015 rookie effort. His two starts in 2020 netted positive results: three runs on seven hits and two walks with 14 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings against the Pirates and White Sox.

That Lorenzen will be given this opportunity is also notable given the potential greater implications for the Reds. Cincinnati could see both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani depart via free agency, and plugging Lorenzen into one of those spots would make for an affordable alternative solution. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and projected to earn a modest bump to a $4MM salary. A successful move to the rotation would certainly bode well for the right-hander’s earning power next winter, too.

The Reds have suggested that they’ll do everything in their power to retain Bauer, the clear-cut top arm on the free-agent market this winter, but it’s widely expected that he’ll land a more lucrative deal elsewhere. If that indeed proves to be the case, the Reds will head into 2021 with a still-strong group of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Wade Miley atop their starting staff.

Lorenzen won’t simply be penciled into the starting mix, but he joins Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone (among others) as potential in-house options to round out the group. It still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds pick up a veteran starter this winter — particularly if Bauer departs — but a role change for Lorenzen could play a role both the club’s rotation and bullpen pursuits this winter.

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Nick Castellanos Doesn’t Opt Out Of Reds Contract

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Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos did not tell the team that he will be exercising the opt-out clause in his contract, according to multiple reporters.  As such, Castellanos will remain in Cincinnati for at least one more season, before facing another opt-out decision following the 2021 campaign.

Castellanos signed a four-year, $64MM deal with the Reds last winter, and his original $16MM salary for 2020 was prorated down to roughly $5.925MM as a result of the shortened season.  He is scheduled to make $14MM in 2021 and then $16MM in both 2022 and 2023, and the Reds have a $20MM mutual option on his services for the 2024 season that can be bought out for $2MM.

There wasn’t much doubt that Castellanos would pass on his opt-out opportunity, as the offseason marketplace figures to be a tight one for all but the uppermost tier of free agents.  It would have been very unlikely that Castellanos would have been able to top the three years and $48MM he has left in his Cincinnati contract, particularly because Castellanos produced average numbers (particularly by his standards) in 2020.

It was very much a tale of two seasons for the 28-year-old, as Castellanos hit a scorching .272/.352/.691 over his first 91 plate appearances in a Reds uniform, but then only .197/.265/.365 over his final 151 PA.  The end result was a 102 wRC+ and OPS+ for Castellanos, his lowest total in either metric in the last five seasons.

If Castellanos rebounds in 2021 and league-wide revenues are at least somewhat back to normal, he could explore using his opt-out clause in a year’s time.  2022 would be Castellanos’ age-30 season so time would still somewhat be on his side, and finding more than two years/$34MM could be feasible if he has another big offensive season under his belt.  Castellanos’ future market would also be helped if the National League has adopted the DH by then, as his right field defense continues to be below average.

Reds Outright Joel Kuhnel

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The Reds announced Monday that right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared waivers been assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville. Between Kuhnel’s outright and the Mets’ claim of Robel Garcia, the Reds have opened a pair of spots on the 40-man roster.

Kuhnel, 25, has pitched 12 2/3 innings with Cincinnati over the past two seasons, working to a combined 4.97 ERA with a 12-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in that limited sample. He averaged better than 96 mph on his heater in 2019 with a swinging-strike of 14.5 percent, though both those marks were down in 2020 — albeit in a minuscule sample of three innings (95.4 mph; 3.5 percent).

Kuhnel, an 11th-round pick by the Reds in 2016, obviously didn’t pitch much in a game setting this year thanks to the absence of a minor league season. His last extended minor league work came in 2019, when he notched a tidy 2.18 ERA with a 50-to-16 K/BB ratio in 53 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A.

Mets Claim Robel Garcia, Designate Ryan Cordell

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed infielder Robel Garcia off waivers from the Reds. Outfielder Ryan Cordell was designated for assignment to create space on the Mets’ roster.

Garcia, 27, made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2019 after after a highly unusual path to The Show. The former Indians farmhand was out of affiliated ball from 2014-18 before the Cubs caught a look at him playing for a professional team in Italy. They brought him in on a minor league pact, and Garcia showed off light-tower power at Triple-A in 2019 — 21 homers in 296 plate appearances — before being called up.

The Cubs gave Garcia 80 plate appearances in 2019, and he responded with a tepid .208 average and .275 on-base percentage, but he still slugged .500 thanks to five homers, two doubles and two triples in that short time. Garcia also punched out in 35 of those 80 plate appearances, so while the raw power he possesses is plain to see, there’s some obvious work to be done on his approach at the plate.

Defensively, Garcia saw time at all four infield positions and both outfield corners during his stint with the Cubs organization, although he was primarily a second baseman and third baseman in the minors. He didn’t appear in the Majors this past season and would seem like a long shot to open next year on the Mets’ roster, if he survives the winter on their 40-man roster. He’s only been optioned in two different seasons, though, so he should have one minor league option remaining next year.

Cordell, 28, joined the Mets as a minor league free agent last offseason and tallied just eight plate appearances in five games with them this year. He was once a well-regarded prospect but has turned in a lackluster .202/.263/.328 batting line through 295 career trips to the plate with the White Sox and Mets. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has a lifetime .266/.323/.451 batting line in Triple-A.

Bauer Had More Fun In 2020

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  • Trevor Bauer had more fun playing baseball with the Reds this season than in any of his prior professional campaigns, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans. That bodes well for a return to Cincinnati for the free agent hurler, though the financial component will still have to be figured out by new head baseball decision-maker Nick Krall. Projecting free agent contracts has never been a murkier business than this season following widespread revenue loss around baseball. Bauer figures to be a rare free agent not to have his market diminished all that much, not after a Cy Young worthy campaign.

Reds Announce Nick Krall As Head Of Baseball Ops Department

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The Cincinnati Reds officially announced Nick Krall as the head of their baseball operations department. Krall is the current VP and General Manager, but he now steps up to assume the duties as the Reds’ top baseball decision-maker.

Per the team release, the Reds wrote: “We are excited for Nick to assume the lead over our baseball operations. His hands-on approach as General Manager gives us the opportunity to reinstate that role as the top position in our baseball department and keep the years of hard work that happened under his purview producing stronger, more competitive teams.”

Previous Team President Dick Williams stepped down earlier this month to take on greater responsibility in his family business. Installing Krall in the top spot on the org chart maintains a strong sense of continuity, despite Williams’ departure. Krall and Williams worked together for 15 years in the Reds’ front office. Krall has been the GM for the past 3 seasons, helping to lead the charge in building a roster that returned the Reds to the postseason this year.

The Reds have a fair amount of money committed to their 2021 roster with Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Nicholas Castellanos, and Eugenio Suarez accounting for almost $64MM in 2021 payroll. The impending free agency of Trevor Bauer will be the first significant decision for the Reds under Krall’s leadership. Bauer went 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP to take home the NL ERA crown in 2020.

Exploring The Reds' Shortstop Possibilities

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Reds Outright Four To Triple-A

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The Reds outrighted four players to Triple-A on Wednesday, the team announced. Jesse Biddle, Matt Bowman, Matt Davidson, and Travis Jankowski all cleared waivers. Bowman had been on the 45-day IL, but not on the 40-man, so the Reds 40-man roster now has three open spots.

Bowman is a 29-year-old right-hander originally claimed off waivers from the Cardinals after the 2018 season. He made 27 appearances out of the bullpen for the Reds in 2019, pitching to a 3.66 ERA/3.68 FIP across 32 innings with 7.0 K/9 to 3.7 BB/9. The Maryland native unfortunately underwent Tommy John surgery on September 1st, making the 2022 season the earliest he is likely to return to action.

Biddle was the 27th overall pick of the 2010 draft by the Phillies, though he never appeared with Philadelphia in the big leagues. He has seen big-league action for the Braves, Mariners, Rangers, and Reds, making one outing with Cincinnati in 2020 before being sidelined with shoulder discomfort. The 28-year-old owns a 4.68 career ERA in 92 1/3 innings across 91 appearances.

Jankowski came to the Reds from the Padres for international slot money after the 2019 season. The southpaw-swinging outfielder went just 1-for-15 at the plate, appearing 7 times as a pinch-runner, and contributing 49 1/3 innings of outfield defense for the 2020 Reds. The 29-year-old owns a career triple slash of .238/.315/.313 in 350 career games.

The 29-year-old Davidson surprisingly appeared in 20 games for the Reds in 2020 after spending all of 2019 with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate. This marked his second return to the bigs after a somewhat prolonged absence, previously returning to the Show in 2016 with the White Sox after making his debut in 2013 with the Diamondbacks. Davidson has been attempting life as a two-way player, and he did make 3 pitching appearances for the Reds, though most of his usage came as a DH or pinch-hitter. He slashed .163/.234/.395 across 47 plate appearances with 3 home runs. On the mound, he gave up 2 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work.

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