- Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
Cubs Rumors
Cubs To Sign Trey Mancini
The Cubs have agreed to sign Trey Mancini to a two-year contract, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link). Mancini, a client of the Frontline agency, can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season if he amasses at least 350 plate appearances in the first year of the contract, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (via Twitter). Also from Levine, Mancini will earn $14MM in guaranteed money over the two years of the deal, and another $7MM is available in bonus clauses related to plate appearances.
Reports linking Mancini to the Cubs first surfaced in December, and even though Chicago addressed its first base need by signing Eric Hosmer just over a week ago, the Wrigleyville club maintained its interest in Mancini’s services. Of course, Mancini can also play both corner outfield spots in addition to first base, and Mancini’s right-handed bat provides a nice complement to lefty-swingers Hosmer and Matt Mervis in the first base/DH mix.
As Rogers indicated in a follow-up tweet, Mervis might now be slated to begin 2023 in Triple-A, rather than immediately step into a regular role in the Cubs lineup in his first taste of MLB action. Mervis is entering only his third season of affiliated baseball, and while Mervis more or less came out of nowhere to shred minor league pitching in 2022, it looks like the Cubs would prefer to ease Mervis into the big leagues, and rely more on established veterans like Mancini and Hosmer at least in the early part of the 2023 campaign.
After spending his entire career with the Orioles, Mancini is now playing for his third organization in less than six months, following the trade deadline move that sent Mancini from Baltimore to Houston. Mancini’s time with the Astros paid off in the biggest form possible once Houston captured the World Series, though Mancini himself wasn’t a big part of that push to the championship. Mancini hit only .176/.258/.364 over 186 plate appearances with the Astros during the regular season, and then had only a single hit over 24 PA in the playoffs.
With this underwhelming finish in mind, it isn’t surprising that Mancini and his representatives sought out an opt-out clause, as a more impressive platform year could set Mancini up nicely for a pricier contract next winter. Mancini turns 31 in March, but even if he re-enters the market next winter in advance of his age-32 season, the veteran should still be in position to land a solid multi-year commitment if he returns to his old form. Mancini hasn’t been in that top form since 2019, though obviously some very difficult circumstances have interfered in his career path.
After missing the entire 2020 season due to a battle with Stage 3 colon cancer, Mancini played in 147 games with the Orioles in 2021, winning AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors for his inspirational return. Mancini got off to a strong start at the plate that year before fading down the stretch, as he had to get re-acclimated after missing a full season. Mancini’s traditionally strong production at Camden Yards took a dip, as the right-handed hitter was naturally impacted by the Orioles’ decision to move back the left-field fences prior to the 2022 season. The result was a modest .283/.338/.411 slash line over 198 PA at Camden Yards last year, well below his career norms.
All in all, Mancini has hit .247/.323/.412 over 1203 PA since the start of the 2021 campaign, translating to a 104 wRC+ that is only slightly above the league average. Between the new dimensions in Baltimore and the midseason adjustment to playing in Houston, Mancini’s bat could re-awaken simply by playing his home games in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. In addition, Mancini has now had a full and normal offseason, as even last winter’s preparations were interrupted by the lockout.
It has been a busy offseason for Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who has aggressively added veteran talent in order to turn the Cubs back towards contention after most of the last two seasons were spent in a rebuild. Like Mancini’s deal, most of the contracts have been shorter-term arrangements, such as a one-year deal with Cody Bellinger, or the Hosmer signing for a minimum salary (since the Padres are still on the hook for the remainder of Hosmer’s contract).
Beyond these shorter deals, Chicago also splurged in inking Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM contract and Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal worth $68MM. Roster Resource projected the Cubs for roughly a $176.6MM payroll before Mancini’s $7MM average annual value was added to the mix, so there could be more spending capacity for further moves considering the Cubs spent well over the $200MM mark as recently as 2019.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Cubs Interested In Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore
The Cubs continue to look for relief help, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports that left-handers Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore are both on the team’s radar. It isn’t clear whether the Cubs are necessarily willing to meet either pitcher’s asking price, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had previously indicated that his team preferred one-year deals for relievers, and the Cubs have traditionally found success in adding relief pitching at lower-cost deals.
As Hoyer told Sharma and other reporters at today’s Cubs Convention fan event, this past strategy is now “a lot more difficult” in the current free agent market. “If you look at the cost on some of the players we were able to do that on, it was really low stakes as far as what we were paying those guys. I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”
Of course, neither Chafin or Moore are buy-low players any longer, adding another wrinkle to Chicago’s interest. Chafin was in fact a bounce-back type when he signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Cubs in the 2020-21 offseason, as the southpaw had struggled with the Diamondbacks in 2020 before the Cubs initially picked him up at the trade deadline.
That rough (and brief, at only 6 2/3 innings) stint with the D’Backs represented Chafin’s only real down point of the last six seasons, as the lefty has been an otherwise solid and occasionally dominant relief arm. Last year with the Tigers, Chafin posted a 2.83 ERA and an above-average 27.6% strikeout rate, and 51.3% grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings, giving him a solid platform to re-enter the free agent market. Chafin declined his $6.5MM player option for 2023, opting to leave Detroit in search of a more lucrative multi-year offer. Chafin certainly has familiarity with Wrigley Field, and could theoretically have interest in a reunion — especially with the Cubs now looking to contend after a short rebuilding period.
MLBTR listed Chafin 39th on our ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting the veteran southpaw for a two-year, $18MM deal. Moore was an honorable mention on the list, as while he only has one season of full-time relief work under his belt, Moore looked quite sharp in his first year as a bullpen regular. The left-hander posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings with the Rangers, even if a 3.69 SIERA and a .257 BABIP indicated Moore enjoyed some good fortune.
Still, secondary metrics tended to back up Moore’s revival. He had a strong 27.3% strikeout rate and did an outstanding job of limiting hard contact, as both his hard-hit ball and barrel rates ranked above the 91st percentile of all pitchers. However, control was still a major issue for Moore, as his 12.5% walk rate sat near the bottom of the league.
Signing either Chafin or Moore would add some left-handed balance to a Chicago bullpen that is mostly full of right-handers, as Brandon Hughes looks to be the only southpaw assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster. The Cubs did bolster their left-handed depth by signing Roenis Elias, Ryan Borucki, and Eric Stout to minor league deals, while Anthony Kay was claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays last month.
Hoyer said that “bench and bullpen” are remaining target areas for the Cubs, with Sharma noting that the team could be looking for a player who can serve as a DH and possibly play some first base. Rather than free agency, the Cubs could potentially look to address their needs in a trade, and perhaps to this end, Sharma writes that the versatile Zach McKinstry “has also been a popular name when other teams call the Cubs regarding trade possibilities.” Sharma opines that Chicago could possibly trade McKinstry and replace him from within with Miles Mastrobuoni, a similar player who (unlike McKinstry) has minor league options remaining.
NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs
While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.
Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.
As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.
Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.
Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:
- The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
- The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner’s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.
Cubs, Ian Happ Avoid Arbitration
The Cubs and outfielder Ian Happ came to an agreement on a $10.85MM salary for the 2023 season in order to avoid arbitration, per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
Happ, 28, has spent his entire professional career as a member of the Cubs organization. He delivered a strong debut campaign in the 2017 season, posting a .253/.328/.514 slash line, good for a 114 wRC+ and some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes while splitting time between second base and center field. The following season, Happ split time between all three outfield spots as well as third base but took a step back offensively, posting a slash line of just .233/.353/.408 (106 wRC+) in 142 games with a worrisome 36.1% strikeout rate.
Happ spent much of the 2019 season at Triple-A Iowa working on his game, and appeared to have made improvements by the time he came up in the second half: in 58 games that season, he slashed .264/.333/.564 (126 wRC+) while cutting his strikeout rate all the way down to 25.0%. Happ’s improved game carried into the shortened 2020 campaign, where he looked like a potential MVP candidate early in the season before an injury an early September caused him to slump down the stretch. Still, he managed a 132 wRC+ on the year after his hot start to the shortened season. That slump continued throughout the first half of the 2021 season as Happ slashed .193/.296/.330 in the first half, though a strong second half allowed him to push his overall season numbers back above league average.
After a difficult year in 2021, however, Happ was able to post the best full season of his career in 2022, and looked like a completely different hitter while doing it. He posted a career high in doubles, a career low strikeout rate, earned a gold glove after settling into a full-time role in left field rather than bouncing around the diamond as he had in the past, and even managed to correct his heavy platoon split from previous years, becoming a largely split neutral player. All this led to his first career All Star appearance in 2022 and allowed him to earn over $10MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, even narrowly beating out the $10.6MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz.
While Happ is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season, rumblings of an extension have permeated throughout the offseason, with both Happ and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reportedly looking to start any potential extension talks before Spring Training, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Cubs, Mike Tauchman Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with free-agent outfielder Mike Tauchman, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Presumably, the Meister Sports client will be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.
The deal with the Cubs marks a return to North American ball for the 32-year-old Tauchman, who spent the 2022 season with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. It was a brief but productive stint, as the former Rockies, Yankees and Giants outfielder turned in a hearty .289/.366/.430 batting line with a dozen homers, 37 doubles, four triples and 19 steals while appearing in 144 games and tallying 648 plate appearances.
Tauchman is best known for a terrific 2019 season, when the Yankees acquired him from the Rockies in exchange for lefty Phillip Diehl and were rewarded with 296 plate appearances of .277/.361/.504 output from a then-28-year-old Tauchman. The former 10th-round pick couldn’t replicate that showing in 2020, batting .242/.342/.305. After a similarly slow start in 2021 he was flipped to the Giants in a trade that netted the Yankees left-hander Wandy Peralta, who has since emerged as a quality member of manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen.
The trade didn’t pan out for the Giants, with Tauchman hitting .178/.286/.283 in 175 plate appearances. San Francisco designated him for assignment in late July and passed him through outright waivers a couple days later. Tauchman became a free agent at season’s end and signed with the Eagles for a $1MM salary in 2022.
He’ll now return stateside in hopes of cracking the Cubs’ roster as a bench option behind starting outfielders Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Other outfield options for the Cubs include Nelson Velazquez, utilityman Zach McKinstry, and prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario, all of whom are on the 40-man roster.
Tauchman will likely join Ben DeLuzio as a non-roster hopeful in camp, and as it stands he’ll be the most experienced member of that bunch vying for an outfield spot. Tauchman has just over three years of Major League service time and carries a .231/.326/.378 batting line in 667 MLB plate appearances, in addition to a .306/.377/.489 line in parts of five Triple-A campaigns.
Cubs Designate Mark Leiter Jr. For Assignment
The Cubs announced Friday that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been designated for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose one-year contract is now official.
Leiter, 32 in March, was drafted by the Phillies in 2013 and made his way up to the majors by 2017. He got into 47 games over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, mostly with Philly but also a brief stint with the Blue Jays after a waiver claim. He posted a 5.53 ERA over that two-year stretch with a subpar 20.5% strikeout rate but a strong 48.2% ground ball rate.
He was outrighted off the Jays’ roster and then required Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2019, which put him on the shelf for a while. He pitched well in the minor leagues of the Tigers’ system in 2021 but didn’t get called up to the big leagues. A minor league deal with the Cubs allowed him to return to the majors last season. He spent the year being shuttled to Triple-A and back, posting a solid 3.99 ERA over 67 2/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 25.9% of batters faced, walking 8.9% of them and getting grounders on 48.9% of balls in play.
Despite those solid results last year, there are reasons the Cubs are moving on. Leiter’s earned runs were likely kept down somewhat by a .251 batting average on balls in play, almost 40 points below league average. He’s also now out of options, giving him less value from a roster maneuverability perspective. However, if some club is intrigued enough to give Leiter a roster spot, he’ll come with some cheap control since he has just over two years of MLB service time.
Cubs, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs and free agent right-hander Vinny Nittoli are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The Gaeta Sports Management client would earn a $775K salary in the big leagues. The Phillies designated Nittoli for assignment last week and released him a couple days ago, but he’ll only have a brief stay on the free-agent market.
The 32-year-old Nittoli made his big league debut in 2021 when he tossed an inning for the Mariners, capping off an eight-year grind to the big leagues. The former 25th-rounder spent the 2022 season with three different organizations, logging time with the Triple-A affiliates for the Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies. He reached the Majors with Philadelphia in September, tossing a pair of scoreless innings out of their bullpen in the season’s final month.
In 52 innings between those three Triple-A clubs, Nittoli turned in a 3.81 ERA with a stout 30.8% strikeout rate and a similarly impressive 6.7% walk rate. He’s not a flamethrower, as his average 93 mph heater in the big leagues has been about a half mile per hour slower than the leaguewide average. That said, Nittoli still has plus strikeout and walk rates throughout his minor league career, including parts of three Triple-A seasons. He also has a minor league option year remaining, so if the Cubs select him to the 40-man roster at any point, he can be shuttled between Iowa and Chicago in 2023 without needing to first clear waivers.
The Cubs have had a quiet offseason on the bullpen front, which is line with recent trends for them. The front office has generally eschewed large-scale, costly additions since the ill-fated signing of Craig Kimbrel. Thus far, Chicago’s lone big league addition has been a one-year, $2.8MM deal for veteran Brad Boxberger. Nittoli, meanwhile, will join a growing list of non-roster invitees hoping to win a spot in a generally inexperienced Cubs ’pen; Chicago has also added right-hander Nick Neidert and southpaws Ryan Borucki, Roenis Elias and Eric Stout on non-roster deals this winter.
P.J. Higgins Elects Free Agency
Catcher P.J. Higgins has rejected an outright assignment from the Cubs in favor of free agency, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chicago designated Higgins for assignment in late December in order to open a spot on the roster for newly signed Tucker Barnhart, and Higgins cleared outright waivers last week. It was the second time in his career he’d gone unclaimed and been assigned outright to a minor league affiliate, however, which granted him the right to reject that assignment and explore his opportunities elsewhere.
Higgins, 29, appeared in 74 games for the Cubs in 2022, batting .229/.310/.383 with six homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 229 plate appearances. He walked at a 9.6% clip and punched out in 25.3% of those trips to the plate. That marked just the second season in which Higgins has had big league experience, with the 2021 season — when he appeared in just nine games — standing as the only other.
A 12th-round pick out of Old Dominion back in 2015, Higgins has been a generally productive hitter in the minors but has never received a particularly long big league look with the Cubs — due in no small part to the presence of Willson Contreras in the Majors for the entirety of his pro career to this point. Higgins has torn through Triple-A pitching at a .338/.429/.535 pace, though that’s come through just 274 plate appearances in a generally hitter-friendly setting. Overall, he’s a career .279/.365/.378 hitter in parts of seven minor league seasons.
Higgins was touted as an average or better defensive catcher back when Baseball America ranked him 22nd among Cubs farmhands in 2017, but he had some struggles in the Majors this past season. Higgins threw out just 16% of runners who attempted to steal against him — well below the league-average 24% — and he ranked near the bottom of the league with his average “pop time” in such situations, per Statcast. Both FanGraphs and Statcast pegged him as a below-average framer, as well, and Defensive Runs Saved dinged him at -6 for his work behind the plate in 2022.
That said, there’s more to Higgins’ defensive skill set than just his work behind the plate. He was an infielder at Old Dominion and in his first season of pro ball, and the Cubs have continued to get him work at other positions throughout his career. Catcher has remained his primary position since 2016, but Higgins has a total of 732 innings at first base, 575 innings at third base and even 93 innings at second and 37 innings at shortstop. He’s unlikely to be viewed as a regular option at any of those infield slots, of course, but it’s a nice bit of versatility to be able to market to other clubs as Higgins looks for a new opportunity as a minor league free agent for the first time in his career.
Pitching Notes: Hendricks, Heuer, King
The Cubs are hoping to be able to have veteran starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks ready for opening day, but it seems the team won’t be rushing him back, according to a report from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks ended the season on the injured list rehabbing a capsular tear in his shoulder that limited him to just 84 innings in 2022.
Per reports at the end of October, Hendricks was a bit behind in his throwing schedule, having hoped to start playing catch by the end of the 2022 season. Instead, that target was shifted to November.
Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy provided an update to Lee, saying Hendricks is on a regimented throwing program and is playing catch off flat ground. Obviously there’s still a fair bit of rehab to go between that and pitching in baseball games, but it seems the Cubs are still hopeful he can be a part of the opening day roster.
“I’m so overly focused on getting Kyle back to being the best version of himself and not rushing it, not pushing it. We all know what Kyle can do when he feels great, when he’s healthy, when he’s locked in,” Hottovy told Lee.
The 16 starts Hendricks made in 2022 was the fewest he’d made in a season since 2014 (excluding the 2020 campaign). While his output has dropped back a bit in recent years, he’s still been a valuable starter over the past few seasons for Chicago, working to a 4.78 ERA over 265 1/3 innings over 2021-22.
The Cubs currently have him penciled into a rotation that also features veterans Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Left-hander Justin Steele took a step forward in 2022 and looks set to be the fifth option in that group. That makes for a solid five-man rotation, yet the Cubs have some good options should Hendricks not be ready for the season as well. Adrian Sampson had some success in 19 starts last season, and could get a look, while Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all young options who’ve done well in their brief time in the majors.
In the bullpen, the Cubs are counting on the return of Codi Heuer at some stage. Heuer had Tommy John surgery in spring training last year, but Lee’s reports he remains on track for a return to the mound sometime in late-June or early-July. After coming over to the Cubs in a cross-town trade with the White Sox that included Nick Madrigal and Craig Kimbrel, Heuer tossed 28 2/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in relief. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but induces a lot of soft contact and with a strong Cubs defense behind him could do well. Heuer is projected for a modest raise to $800K through his first year of arbitration (courtesy of Matt Swartz’ projections) and is under team control for another three seasons.
Sticking with injured relievers, the Yankees bullpen was dealt a significant blow when Michael King went down with a fractured elbow. King had tossed 51 innings of 2.29 ERA ball, and had blossomed into a dominant multi-inning reliever for the Yankees. Chris Kirscher of The Athletic reports that King may not be ready for opening day, calling it a “tad optimistic” to think he’ll be up to speed for the first game of the season. In any event, Kirschner adds that King has begun his throwing program and is “progressing well”, so there doesn’t seem to be much concern that King is at risk of any major setback in his recovery.
