- Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters yesterday, including MLB.com’s Matthew Ritchie, regarding youngster Christopher Morel’s role as he heads into what will be his second season in the majors. While Morel seemed to be a potential front-runner to start at third base for the Cubs this season, Ross seems more focused on Morel’s versatility, noting he could serve as a fourth outfielder for the club behind starters Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki, or act as a utility player, combining his experience in the outfield with his ability to play every infield position besides first base. Chicago’s recent signing of third baseman Edwin Rios might factor into this thinking, as the lefty Rios has the potential to form an effective platoon with incumbent third baseman Patrick Wisdom, who mashed lefties to a line of .250/.336/.556 (147 wRC+) in 141 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitching last year.
Cubs Rumors
Examining The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Options
Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is expected to begin the season on the injured list, setting the 2023 Opening Day roster in Chicago up to be the first one to not include a member of the 2016 World Series championship team since 2012 following the departure of Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward over the offseason. As fans on the north side of Chicago begin getting used to the new era of Cubs baseball, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s front office has an important question to answer this spring: who will take Hendricks’s turn in the rotation while he’s injured?
As manager David Ross told reporters, including the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, young righties Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay do not figure into the club’s rotation plans, with both players expected to start the season as members of the bullpen. That still leaves plenty of options for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly, however. Two players in particular seem. to have the inside track toward the first crack at starting for the big league club in 2023:
Perhaps the most likely contender for the role, the journeyman Sampson is entering his age-31 season with a strong chance at an extended look in the big leagues for just the third time in his career. Sampson’s tenure as a member of the Cubs began late in the 2021 season following a late August call-up. Across 10 appearances and five starts, Sampson pitched well, with a 2.80 ERA (152 ERA+) in his 35 1/3 innings of work. The underlying metrics didn’t feel so positively about his performance, however, as Sampson allowed a minuscule .232 BABIP and left a whopping 88.4% of runners on base despite over one in five of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Those red flags left him with a concerning 5.72 ERA, but the Cubs saw enough in Sampson to sign him to another minors deal for the 2022 season.
The 2022 season proved to be something of a revelation for Sampson after he received an opportunity in Chicago’s rotation following a slew of injuries. In 104 1/3 innings across 21 appearances (19 starts), Sampson pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (132 ERA+) that, unlike the previous season, was more supported by underlying metrics. Sampson’s BABIP of .288 and LOB% of 77.6% both returned to figures far closer to his career norms of .299 and 76%, respectively, giving him a much more palatable 3.79 FIP on the season. Much of this improvement came from a drastically reduced home run rate, however, as Sampson saw just 7.7% of his fly balls allowed leave the yard during the 2022 campaign. That rate isn’t likely to be sustainable going forward, leaving a major red flag in Sampson’s profile entering the 2023 season.
Given his success in 2022 and the $1.9MM salary he agreed to for 2023 in a pre-tender deal with the Cubs, it would make plenty of sense if the veteran righty had the inside track to the fifth starter’s job to open the 2023 season even in spite of those concerns. That being said, Sampson still has a minor league option remaining, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A as depth should he not make the Opening Day rotation. Furthermore, for a team like the Cubs with a handful of pitching prospects approaching the big leagues, it would be understandable for the organization to prioritize figuring out what they have in those youngsters over giving a journeyman like Sampson an extended run, even following his big league success in 2022.
One such pitching prospect is Wesneski, the right-hander the Cubs acquired from the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski made his big league debut in September and found instant success, even throwing an immaculate inning during his late season cup of coffee. Overall, Wesneski pitched to a sterling 2.18 ERA (190 ERA+) over 33 innings. He also struck out a quarter of opponents with a meager 5.3% walk rate, leading to an excellent 3.20 FIP backing up his raw run prevention numbers.
This fantastic performance towards the end of the season has seen Wesneski generate considerable hype throughout the offseason, and he enters Spring Training as Sampson’s likely biggest challenger for the fifth starter role in Chicago. As previously mentioned, the Cubs have an assortment of interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and DJ Herz. Given this reality, it would make plenty of sense for the Cubs to use these early season innings to get Wesneski more experience against big league pitching and see how the league adjusts to him following his strong debut.
However, with just four starts and six total appearances in the big leagues under his belt, it would be understandable if the Cubs wanted to take things slowly with Wesneski. After all, the righty just turned 25 years old and has multiple minor league option years remaining. Additionally, Wesneski’s 143 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2022 was a career high, so it’s possible the Cubs will be keeping a close eye on his innings this season, while the club is still working towards a return to contention.
Other Options
While Sampson and Wesneski appear to be the front-runners for the job, there’s a few other players who seem likely to be in the mix for the fifth spot in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation. Ross specifically mentioned right-hander Javier Assad as a potential candidate. Assad, like Wesneski, is entering his age-25 season in 2023 and received a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. Over 37 2/3 innings across nine appearances and eight starts, Assad pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (133 ERA+), though his unimpressive 18.1% strikeout rate and concerning 12% walk rate leave plenty of room for concern, as demonstrated by his 4.49 FIP.
In addition to Assad, a pair of non-roster invitees could see consideration for a rotation spot. Nick Neidert spent his career as a member of the Mariners and Marlins organizations prior to signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal this offseason, and pitched well in 2022, both in 46 innings at the Triple-A level (1.96 ERA) and in a spot start for the Marlins in the big leagues (3.60 ERA over five innings), though he spent much of the season on the injured list.
Meanwhile, Roenis Elias has some success in the big leagues, with a career 3.96 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.26 FIP in 395 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues. Elias also delivered a particularly strong performance in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, posting a fantastic 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work. On the other hand, most of Elias’s recent big league experience has come out of the bullpen, with the lefty starting just 5 major league games since the start of the 2016 season. Both Elias and Assad are also set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring, giving the Cubs a unique potential look at their abilities in a more competitive setting than Spring Training can usually provide.
Between Sampson, Wesneski, and the above trio of darkhorse options, the Cubs have an interesting choice to make ahead of Opening Day regarding who will take up Hendricks’s spot in the rotation until he returns from the injured list. It’s possible injuries could make the decision easier by that time, either by taking options out of the running or opening up more spots in the rotation for those competing. Even if that happens, though, the Cubs appear to be in a good place in terms of quality starting pitching depth as they begin to prepare for the 2023 campaign.
Big Hype Prospects: Volpe, Wesneski, O’Hoppe, Harrison, Brujan
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we continue our offseason tradition of focusing on players tangentially linked to news and rumors.
Five BHPs In The News
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472
True to their word, the Yankees never got around to solving their left field opening with an external addition. Nor did they upgrade Josh Donaldson after the veteran turned in his worst-hitting performance since 2012. The club has opted to go with internal depth like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Also factoring into the calculus is the imminent arrival of Volpe.
The 21-year-old slugger has only 99 plate appearances of experience at Triple-A and posted a modest 91 wRC+ at the level. While minor league data isn’t comprehensive, there’s evidence Volpe was too patient with pitches inside the strike zone. A repeat at the level makes sense given the personnel already on hand in the Majors. It would require an incredible Spring Training for Volpe to crack the Opening Day lineup. In the interim, with Gleyber Torres participating in the World Baseball Classic, Volpe should have more opportunities for middle infield game reps.
Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA
With Kyle Hendricks expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Cubs have a battle for the fifth rotation slot. The most intriguing entrant is Wesneski, a right-hander who showed a knack for avoiding hard contact in a brief 33-inning trial last season. Wesneski features a five-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. While he doesn’t project to run rampant strikeout totals in the Majors, Wesneski is stingy about allowing hits and walks. It’s a Jameson Taillon-like profile, and it’s probably no accident the Cubs acquired both players in the last calendar year.
Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544
Acquired at the previous trade deadline for formerly hyped prospect Brandon Marsh, O’Hoppe will compete with Max Stassi for a starting role on the thirsty Angels. Although the right-handed hitter has yet to play in Triple-A, the Angels gave him a vote of confidence in the form of 16 Major League plate appearances last fall. O’Hoppe took advantage of hitter-friendly conditions to torch Double-A pitching. His 2022 breakout included improved plate discipline without sacrificing aggression against pitches in the heart of the zone. This is a relatively rare adjustment. Should he seize the Opening Day job, keep an eye on his plate discipline metrics. If he retains his selective aggression, O’Hoppe could emerge as one of the top catchers in the league.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
(AA) 84 IP, 13.61 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 3.11 ERA
Including High-A, Harrison threw a total of 113 innings. He should approach a full complement of 30 starts this season – perhaps with a mix of longer and shorter outings to manage his workload. The Giants put together a deep pool of Major League starters. In addition to the presumed starting five of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Wood, Jakob Junis and Anthony Desclafani await in the bullpen.
While Harrison finds himself behind a number of very qualified starters, the pool of viable minor leaguer replacements is relatively thin. This is also a group of veterans who (mostly) have familiarity with major injuries. This apparent depth could evaporate at a moment’s notice, offering a temporary opportunity for Harrison to audition. As of last look, command is Harrison’s greatest weakness. Most scouts think he’ll develop in this regard. If not, his stuff is sufficient to support him in short-burst starter or elite fireman roles.
Vidal Brujan, 25, 2B/OF, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 162 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, .163/.228/.259
Although technically no longer a prospect, Brujan still fits a looser definition of an “unestablished, young player.” He’s also received plenty of hype over the years. Brujan doesn’t fit cleanly on this iteration of the Rays roster, leading MLBTR staffer Anthony Franco to consider him a trade candidate. The switch-hitter has struggled to make impactful contact at the top level, though he has posted an above-average batting line at every minor league level – aside from nine plate appearances at Low-A in 2016. At one point, prospect watchers secretly hoped Brujan would flip a power switch like similarly-built infielder Jose Ramirez. Now it’s looking likelier Brujan settles as a defense-first regular with a contact-forward hitting approach.
Three More
Thad Ward, WSH (26): Although I’ve yet to hear of the Nationals planning to use Ward as a starter this season, the absence of Stephen Strasburg creates a tempting opportunity. Ward has served as a starter throughout his minor league career and profiles as a potential rotation regular. The Nationals are in a state of internal evaluation and have little reason to withhold starts from their Rule 5 pick.
James Outman, LAD (25): After spending much of the offseason with a clear path to a starting role, Outman now finds himself locked behind David Peralta. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Outman faces an uphill battle for regular reps.
DL Hall, BAL (24): Hall is currently behind schedule due to lower back discomfort. The oft-injured southpaw already looked questionable to make the Opening Day rotation. This setback only increases the risk of a minor league assignment. While Hall undoubtedly could play as a Major League reliever, the club is still assessing his potential as a starter.
Cubs Sign Michael Fulmer
Feb. 20: The Cubs have formally announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, right-hander Codi Heuer was placed on the 60-day injured list. Heuer is recovering from Tommy John surgery
Feb. 15: Fulmer and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract tweets Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
Feb. 10: The Cubs and free-agent righty Michael Fulmer are in agreement on a contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical. Fulmer is represented by BBI Sports Group.
In Fulmer, the Cubs are landing one of the few remaining quality relievers on the market. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year broke into the Majors as a starter and thrived in that role before injuries — namely Tommy John surgery and a separate ulnar nerve transposition procedure — derailed his career. He returned to full strength in 2021 however, and after a few shaky starts early in the season, found a home in the Detroit bullpen.
From that point through the 2022 trade deadline, Fulmer was a rock-solid setup man and closer for a sub-.500 Tigers team. Detroit flipped him to the Twins prior to the 2022 trade deadline, receiving minor league pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long in return. Fulmer continued his smooth transition to the bullpen with a nice showing in Minnesota down the stretch, and he now touts a 2.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 39.2% grounder rate and 0.64 HR/9 mark in 111 2/3 innings since moving to a relief role on a full-time basis.
Fulmer had some command issues in the first half of the 2022 season, but those were largely ironed out following his trade to Minnesota, with whom he walked just 7.5% of the batters he faced. There are at least a handful of red flags on his 2022 season beyond the brief uptick in walks, however.
For instance, the 95.6 mph Fulmer averaged on his heater in 2021 dipped to 94.3 mph in 2022, while his 24.6% strikeout rate fell to 22.1% (and just 20.6% after the trade). The right-hander also went from one of the game’s best at managing hard contact (87th percentile average exit velocity, 76th percentile hard-hit rate) to just slightly above-average in 2022 (55th percentile exit velocity, 61st percentile hard-hit rate). Additionally, his strong 34.6% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate fell to 31.2% in 2022 — a career-low mark in a full 162-game season.
The extent to which factors like that combined to slow Fulmer’s market can’t be fully known, but it’s still a bit of a surprise that it took until the week before spring training for him to reach a deal. While financial terms of his contract haven’t yet come to light, the Cubs tend to wait out the market and scoop up veteran relievers at relatively bargain rates. Chicago hasn’t inked a reliever to a multi-year deal or even topped a $5MM guarantee for a reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel four years ago.
If that trend indeed continues, it could well prove to be a bargain for them. Fulmer isn’t a dominant, overpowering bullpen anchor, but he’s been a quality setup man with slightly above-average ability to miss bats, solid command and a knack for avoiding hard contact over the past two seasons. If his 2023 results fall in line anywhere between his 2021 and 2022 output, it’ll be a nice upgrade to a Cubs bullpen that is lacking in certainty.
Prior to the agreement with Fulmer, righties Brad Boxberger and Rowan Wick were the only relievers in the Chicago bullpen with even three years of Major League service time. The Cubs don’t have a set closer, so Fulmer figures to join Boxberger, Brandon Hughes and perhaps former top prospect Adbert Alzolay — who was excellent in a small sample of bullpen work last year — in competing for work in the ninth inning.
Taillon Adding Slider To His Repertoire
- Jameson Taillon is on a new team and he is now learning a new pitch, as the Cubs right-hander has started to work on a sweeping slider. As Taillon tells The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, he was one of the relatively few Yankees pitchers who didn’t use the “whirly,” as his 2020-21 offseason was spent recovering from Tommy John surgery and adjusting after being traded from the Pirates, and Taillon’s 2021-22 offseason work was hampered by the lockout and recovery from ankle surgery. “This year, healthy offseason, I signed on the earlier end, got familiar with the pitching coaches and I’m comfortable with my delivery. So I feel like it’s the perfect storm for being able to tinker a little bit,” Taillon said. The righty inked a four-year, $68MM free agent deal with Chicago in early December.
Read The Transcript Of Our Live Chat Hosted By Former MLB Scout Tim Kissner
Today’s chat guest, Tim Kissner, has 22 years of experience as an MLB scout.
Tim was born in Homer, Alaska, and grew up in Juneau. He played baseball at Mendocino Community College and Oregon State and has a masters degree from Eastern Oregon State College.
Kissner began his MLB career as a part-time scout with the Phillies in 1999. After a few years with the Indians, Kissner moved back to the Phillies, eventually serving as the team’s Pacific Rim coordinator. Kissner spent time as the Cubs’ West Coast crosschecker, then joined the Mariners as director of international scouting. Kissner’s next step was as a special assignment scout with the Mets. He finished his MLB career back with the Phillies.
In terms of amateur scouting, Kissner signed players such as Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley, Scott Mathieson, Andrew Carpenter, Anthony Gose, and Justin De Fratus. Tim’s Latin American signings include big leaguers Julio Rodriguez, Freddy Peralta, Luis Rengifo, Enyel De Los Santos, and Guillermo Heredia, as well as top prospect Noelvi Marte. By Tim’s count, the Mariners traded more than 20 of the players he signed there.
Deciding it was time for something new after a career spent scouting all around the world, Tim returned home to become a police officer in Juneau about a year ago. Tim chatted today with MLBTR readers for nearly two hours, sharing Julio Rodriguez stories, many aspects of the scouting profession, and much more. Click here to read the transcript.
Cubs Notes: Thompson, Alzolay, Hendricks, Hoerner
Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay aren’t part of the competition to be the Cubs’ fifth starter, as manager David Ross told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that the two right-handers will be working out of the bullpen. Thompson has pitched as a reliever for 38 of his 61 career games in the majors, with significantly more success out of the pen — the righty has a 1.95 ERA over 73 2/3 bullpen innings, as opposed to a 4.94 ERA over 94 2/3 frames as a starter. Alzolay has started 27 of his 45 career games, but worked exclusively as a reliever in his limited action last year, as Alzolay missed most of 2022 recovering from a shoulder strain.
Thompson also missed close to a month last season due to lower back tightness, so health concerns might have also been some factor in the Cubs’ decision. However, the team might simply be more excited by the idea of what Thompson or Alzolay could deliver as relief pitchers, particularly since the rotation has been bolstered by the addition of Jameson Taillon and the re-signing of Drew Smyly. Chicago hasn’t spent much on the bullpen in recent years, preferring to add veterans on one-year deals (i.e. this winter’s signings of Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger) and seeing what is available in terms of in-house options. Of course, this doesn’t mean that Thompson or Alzolay couldn’t still get at least some usage as a starter in 2023, or that the door is closed on either righty as a potential starting candidate down the road.
More from Wrigleyville….
- Speaking of the starting rotation, Kyle Hendricks will return to his usual spot in the starting five when he is healthy, as the veteran continues to manage a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder. Hendricks told Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that he is roughly a month behind in his usual offseason training routine, though he will throw off a mound in a loose bullpen session on Friday. This puts Hendricks slightly ahead of his projected rehab schedule, as Hendricks was initially thinking he wouldn’t have any mound work until March 1.
- Contract extensions haven’t been a big part of the Cubs’ business over the last three seasons, as the team tried to squeeze another title out of its 2016 championship core before pivoting into a rebuild. Now that the Cubs are aiming to contend again in 2023, talks have taken place with Nico Hoerner about a possibly long-term deal, though the second baseman didn’t give reporters (such as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma or MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) or other reporters any updates about the status of the negotiations. Hoerner doesn’t have any “hard deadline” on getting a deal complete, and that “we’ll just continue to work things through” while he is primarily focusing on his Spring Training prep. As to his future in Chicago, Hoerner said “I love coming to work here every day. There are so many boxes that are checked being a part of this organization. They’ve done nothing but right by me.” Hoerner has two remaining arbitration-eligible years remaining, and he is eligible for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.
Cubs Sign Edwin Rios To Major League Deal
6:37pm: Ríos is guaranteed $1MM on the deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link).
6:24pm: The Cubs have signed corner infielder Edwin Ríos to a big league contract, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Reliever Ethan Roberts was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Ríos is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Ríos, 28, has played in each of the last four MLB campaigns as a member of the Dodgers. He hasn’t gotten more than 32 appearances in any individual season, a testament both to Los Angeles’ position player depth and Ríos’ personal injury history. The left-handed hitter has spent time on the injured list in each of the past three seasons. He lost some time in 2020 to a left hamstring strain and has missed significant chunks of the last couple years with respective right shoulder and right hamstring injuries.
Those maladies have disrupted what has been a promising start to Ríos’ big league career. He has 20 home runs, nine doubles and a triple in just 292 trips to the plate. A lofty 32% strikeout rate has worked against his batting average and on-base percentage (respectively .219 and .299) but he owns a very strong .492 slugging mark against MLB pitching. That power outburst included seven round-trippers in 27 games last season.
Ríos has been a quality offensive player over an even larger body of work at Triple-A. Through parts of four seasons at the top minor league level, the Florida International product carries an excellent .282/.349/.526 line with a decent 8.2% walk rate but a 31.1% strikeout percentage in a little under 1200 plate appearances. Ríos bat-to-ball skills are questionable, but there’s little doubt he has significant power upside.
That production intrigued the Cubs enough to guarantee him a major league roster spot. He’d been non-tendered by the Dodgers at the start of the offseason, with L.A. opting against retaining him on a salary projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz around $1.4MM. Financial terms of his deal with Chicago aren’t known, though it’s assuredly a low base salary. The more meaningful development is that he won’t have to work his way onto the 40-man roster.
Ríos does still have one minor league option year remaining. The Cubs can keep him in Triple-A Iowa for the upcoming season, though there’s also a path to securing regular playing time in the majors. Chicago’s third base situation is unsettled, with Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Nick Madrigal among those who could vie for reps.
Wisdom, a right-handed hitter, has been the primary option at the hot corner the past two years. He has slugged .533 against left-handed pitching in that time but posted a .209/.290/.438 line against righties. That makes him a potential platoon fit with the lefty-swinging Ríos. Morel and Madrigal also hit from the right side but could assume multi-positional roles off the bench and/or head back to the minors on optional assignment.
If Ríos carves out an important role and runs with it, he could be a long-term piece for the Chicago infield. He has a little over three years of major league service. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at least twice more after this season, and any optional stint in the minors could extend that window of control by an additional season.
The 25-year-old Roberts pitched in nine games last year after breaking camp as a rookie. He eventually landed on the shelf with shoulder inflammation and required Tommy John surgery last June. It’s possible he returns from that procedure at the tail end of the season, but there’s no chance he’d have been ready within the first two months. His IL placement was a mere formality whenever the need for a roster spot arose. He’ll be paid at the MLB minimum rate and accrue big league service time while rehabbing.
Zack Britton Working Out For Six Teams Today
Former All-Star closer Zack Britton is hosting a workout for six interested clubs today, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that the Mets are one of the six teams in attendance. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the Angels, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Rangers were also in attendance. The Angels, in particular, have been linked to Britton in recent weeks. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, meanwhile, writes that the Tigers have had interest in Britton, though it doesn’t seem they attended today’s showcase.
It’s the second time the 35-year-old Britton has thrown for teams this offseason, though the first was more of a leaguewide showcase. That took place back in mid-January, and it stands to reason that today’s workout will offer his most interested suitors a chance to get another look at him as he gears up for a potential signing. That Britton would offer multiple showcases to interested teams isn’t necessarily a surprise, given that he pitched just two-thirds of an inning in 2022 and only 18 1/3 frames in 2021.
Once one of the game’s elite relievers, Britton has seen his star fade in his mid-30s as injuries have begun to take their toll. The lefty had his elbow scoped in March 2021, which cost him the first two months of that season. He returned in June but quickly went down with a hamstring strain that sidelined him another few weeks. The return from that balky hamstring proved similarly short-lived, as an elbow strain again sent him to the injured list.
In Sept. 2021, Britton underwent surgery to address that second elbow issue. The hope was that, like the arthroscopic procedure in March, removing some bone spurs would alleviate the issue. Instead, surgeons determined that Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament had suffered enough damage that a Tommy John surgery was required. He missed almost all of the 2022 season but did make an improbable late-September return. However, that amounted to just three games, during which time Britton walked six of nine batters faced before going back to the injured list yet again. He averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball in that time — nowhere close to the 94.9 mph he averaged during his last healthy season in 2020 (and even further from the 96.9 mph on his sinker at its peak).
That peak, of course, was one for the ages. From 2014-20, Britton notched a superhuman 1.84 ERA in 367 1/3 frames. He punched out 24% of his opponents against a 9.2% walk rate in that time, and Britton’s 76.2% ground-ball rate over that period cemented him as the best ground-ball pitcher since 2002, when batted-ball data of that nature began being carefully tracked. Britton posted a laughable 80% ground-ball rate in 2016 and was at 79.1% in 2015 and 77.2% in 2019 — the three highest single-season marks ever posted by a qualified pitcher.
Whether he can get back to that form in his mid-30s is an open question. Given his diminished velocity and recent elbow woes, it seems like a long shot. But, given that Britton isn’t likely to command more than an incentive-laden deal with a low base salary, there’s plenty of sense in taking a low-cost risk, given the obvious talent and track record of dominance.
Cubs Continuing Search For Bullpen Addition
The Cubs have had a busy offseason, signing seven players to big league free agent deals. Most of the attention has been on the position player side, with Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart and Eric Hosmer added to the lineup. Chicago also signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year contract to fortify the rotation.
They’ve been rather quiet with regards to the bullpen, however. Chicago inked Brad Boxberger to a modest $2.8MM guarantee in December. They’ve claimed hard-throwing Julian Merryweather off waivers from the Blue Jays. Otherwise, it’s been minor league deals to backfill a relief corps that saw the departures of David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens at last year’s trade deadline.
It seems an addition to the later innings could be on the horizon. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic writes the organization is hopeful of bringing in another reliever before pitchers and catchers hold their first spring workouts next week. It isn’t clear which players are under consideration or the specific odds of Chicago pushing a deal across the finish line, though it’s notable the front office doesn’t appear to be done with Spring Training near.
A left-handed addition would be an ideal fit on paper. Chicago has just one southpaw reliever, Brandon Hughes, on the 40-man roster. He had a solid rookie season and should be in the MLB bullpen, though there’s room for another addition. Non-roster invitees Ryan Borucki, Eric Stout, Anthony Kay and Roenis Elías currently stand as the top options to join Hughes if the front office wants to give David Ross a second southpaw.
Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic listed the Cubs among a third of the league that was exploring the market for left-handed bullpen help. That subset of free agency has been bizarrely quiet since Taylor Rogers signed a three-year deal with the Giants shortly after Christmas. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Will Smith are among the top remaining free agents at any position, while former stars Zack Britton and Brad Hand are available beyond that trio.
Of course, the Cubs don’t have to look exclusively at the left-handed market — even if that is the stronger group overall. Chicago could certainly accommodate a right-hander to join Boxberger, Adbert Alzolay and perhaps Merryweather or Rowan Wick in the middle to late innings. Michael Fulmer, Jeff Hoffman and Corey Knebel are among a number of still-unsigned options from the right side.
